I think it would be fair to say that events in Syria are preoccupying the thoughts of most commentators this week.
For those who may not know, I have published a brief article on the fall of Syria which you can view here.
Some commentators see this as a victory for Israel and the US, while others, such as Julian Macfarlane, see it as a ‘quagmire’. I think it is too early to judge this as a victory as such and the term ‘quagmire’ sums it up for me - in the sense that the conflict has the potential to involve many disparate forces getting bogged down in the desert and even cancelling each other out.1 There are so many variables in play in the Middle East conflict that making predictions about what will happen next is just as difficult as forecasting the British weather.
Brian Berletic offers a sober/rational analysis which doesn’t inspire optimism, while Alex Krainer believes that the Syrian debacle was allowed to happen in order to lure the West into a trap. It is clear that strategically the playing board in this global game of Risk2 has definitely changed. But it is not yet clear how the major players will react in response to this change. That’s why I think it is too early to make judgements about a victory for any side. Iran, for example, will find it difficult to maintain links with Hezbollah so it’s strategy may have to change.
From what I have seen and heard, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has acted in accordance with its natural instincts as a terrorist organisation rather than conforming to behavior associated with its Western ‘rebranding’. Hamas, has applauded the ‘victory’ of its fellow Sunnis who will hopefully be committed to the Palestinian cause but this is by no means certain since HTS appears to be allied with Israel. However, this may be a ‘marriage of convenience’ that could end in a bloody divorce. While attending his own trial for corruption, Netanyahu has arranged for his troops to occupy the Golan heights and encroach into Syria while his air force has destroyed the Syrian navy and other military targets including air defences. And true to their destructive nature, the Israelis are also destroying civilian infrastructure, including trains. The UN has said that these strikes violate international law. HTS has not complained (publicly at least) about the Israeli destruction. But Israel could be in danger of over extending its reach.
Meanwhile, the Turks are battling with the Kurds who in turn are backed by the Americans. Isis is still in the mix while at least one group of Assad’s soldiers led by his brother will stay on in Syria to fight. The situation has become hopelessly complicated. There are a plethora of articles and videos dealing with this but I think the discussion I learned most from was one between Glen Diesen, Alexander Mercouris and, most importantly, Alistair Crooke - a rock star among diplomatic commentators.
Events elsewhere have had to live underneath the cold shadow cast by this Syrian ‘quagmire’.
The genocide continues in Gaza while talks of a ceasefire are ongoing and the Lebanon ‘ceasefire’ is holding up for the most part.
On the battlefronts of Ukraine, Russia could break through in Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Kurakhovo and Petrovsk while the eviction of Ukrainian forces continues in Kursk. It seems that Ukraine is suffering badly from a manpower shortage amid calls from the US to start mobilising 18 year olds. Sleepy Joe has managed to get some more funding to Ukraine and will continue to do so until he leaves office.
Just when we thought sensible actors had prevailed in the ATACMS saga, following their absence from the stage for a week or so, they have come back! Six of them to be precise. I was hoping this wouldn’t happen and it was against the wishes of Donald J Trump (Man of the Year). Russia retaliated with a huge missile/drone attack overnight on the 12th/13th December targeting the energy system (see below).
Many were anticipating another Oreshnik strike but its seems that Putin is keeping this in his back pocket.
It’s been another eventful week.
Russia Reaches Deal on Military Bases in Syria
Moscow's Defense Ministry believes it has an informal understanding with Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the former al-Qaeda offshoot that led the offensive to oust Assad, that it can stay at the Syrian bases...The situation could still change amid the instability in Syria - alleged anonymous Russian source to report, above.
Russia will be part of the ‘peaceful transfer of power'.
Oreshniks to Belarus
Russia has signed a new Security Guarantees Treaty with Belarus which is celebrating its 25th anniversary as an independent state. As part of the deal, each will support the other in the event of an attack by a third party. Belarus will also get nuclear weapons and Oreshniks. According to Putin, the Treaty will involve:
…the deepening of integration in the socio-economic and humanitarian spheres, the unification of the legislation of the two countries, as well as the measures taken to ensure reliable common defense and security.
You can read more at Sputnik.
Ukraine Attacks IAEA Personnel At Zaporozhye
Employees of the International Atomic Energy Agency were attacked by Ukrainian artillery as they carried out their duties at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant on December 10th. The Russian Foreign Ministry pleaded:
We call on the US, the United Kingdom, and their allies to end any support for the Zelensky regime and take measures to bring those responsible for the act of provocation to justice.
Many of you will know that the NPP has been the subject of many Ukrainian attacks over the past years, some of which could have ended in catastrophe. But these attacks have been ignored by the West. A successful attack will be impossible to ignore. On this occasion, there were no casualties - according to Pravda.
Russian Decolonisation Strategy - CIA/MI-6
The UK has assisted 2.7 millions illegal migrants into Russia in a bid to destabilise the country. The CIA and MI-6 are involved in a ‘Russian Decolonisation Strategy’ aimed at promoting/provoking national conflicts including migrant riots.. The Russians are taking measures to counter this.
Polish Diplomats Booted Out
In retaliation for Poland’s decision to close the Russian Consulate in Poznan, the Russians have closed the Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg and asked the Polish diplomats to leave - according to Zero Hedge. Poland has accused the Russians of "intimidation, the instrumentalization of migrants, sabotage, disinformation, foreign information manipulation and interference." And for good measure they have added ‘terrorism’ to the list of charges. Moscow accused Poland of pursuing an ‘openly hostile policy’ towards Russia.
Russian Missile Strikes - Massive Increase
The rate will probably not increase exponentially from now on but will increase steadily.
China Cutting Drone Parts to Ukraine
In January, China is expected to tighten restrictions on the export of drone parts to Ukraine which could seriously harm Ukraine’s military efforts.
Ukrainians Escaping
Kids Escaping
Some time ago I reported that mothers in Ukraine were helping their teenage sons to escape Ukraine for fear that they would be called up to the army. There have been calls from armchair warriors in the US and elsewhere to reduce the mobilisation age to 18. In view of this, many Ukrainian teenagers are making arrangements to study abroad, not because of missile and drone attacks or lack of electricity but because they want to live. Being recruited means almost certain death. 190,000 boys between 14 and 17 are already registered as refugees in foreign lands.
And Men
RADA MP, Anna Skorokhod (pictured) claims that official figures show that 1.2 million men have fled the country illegally though the true figure is likely to be much higher.
And Soldiers
According to recent figures, Ukrainian desertions have increased six fold as compared with 2022. According to Intel Republic, quoting Ukrainian law enforcement personnel:
‘Fatigue plays a role. Or there are personal circumstances, like when a soldier’s wife is giving birth,” said Oleksandr Hrynchuk of Ukraine’s military law enforcement service. “Or because there’s nobody else to lead the platoon and the commander didn’t grant leave.” Roman Lykhachov, a Kharkov-based lawyer for soldiers and veterans, estimates the number may stand at 100,000 or more, which isn’t a far cry from the 160,000 troops that Ukraine earlier said it still needs to mobilize.
Trump-Marcon-Zelensky-Paris
According to Zelensky:
Good, productive meeting with President Trump and President Macron. President Trump is, as always, determined. Thank you for that. I also thank President Macron for organizing this meeting in Paris. We talked about our people, the situation on the battlefield, and a just peace for Ukraine. We all want to end this war as quickly and fairly as possible. We agreed to continue working. Peace through strength is possible.
Z is in his element when meeting up with the big boys. The meeting lasted a derisible 20 minutes.
Trump - Negotiate or You’re Fired!
However, during this meeting, Trump called for an immediate ceasefire and the start of negotiations. According to Tass:
Zelensky and Ukraine would like to make a deal [with Russia] and stop the madness. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin. he said, adding that "China can help" in the negotiations process. "If it [conflict] keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse"
I wonder, could I be out of a job soon?
But Zelensky was not at all impressed and rejected Trump’s offer:
A ceasefire without guarantees can be reignited at any moment, as Putin has already done. To ensure that there are no more losses of Ukrainians, we must guarantee the reliability of peace and not turn a blind eye to the occupation.
He believes that security guarantees are needed if Putin is to be prevented from invading at some point in the future. By ‘security guarantees’ he actually means membership of NATO. I have no idea what the once great Z refers to when he claims ‘as Putin has already done’.
Some tabloids here in the UK are giving the impression that Zelensky has agreed to negotiations We shall see.
In his talks with Macron and Zelensky, Trump is reported to have said that although Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO at this point, he wants to see a Ukraine that is strong militarily. Why do Western leaders continue to ignore Putin’s objectives for the SMO - which include the demilitarisation of Ukraine. Trump also suggested that European troops occupy Ukraine after the ceasefire - which the Russians will never allow. Maybe Trump should do some research or get some good advice - Colonel MacGregor will help.
According to a Ukrainian source, Trump told Yermak in their recent Washington meeting that he must dump the legislation that prohibits negotiations with Russia. But how can an expired government do this legitimately? Apparently, the Trump team was also critical of Yermak’s embellishment of the situation on the battlefields having acquired more reliable and more accurate information from another source.
Zelensky to be Investigated
Kash Patel (pictured), who Trump has nominated for FBI Director, has said that he will be investigating Zelensky to establish how he has used US taxpayer’s money. Patel is suspicious of the once great Z who has been made false statements and false claims in the past. He knows about Ukraine’s corruption problem. Zelensky could be worried by this.
Don’t Shit Under The Door
This reads: ‘I kindly ask you not to shit under the door The TCC employee no longer lives here.’
Ukraine Terrorist Attacks
6th/7th December
Overnight, in the village of Alyoshki (Kherson), 3 people were killed and another 3 seriously injured by a strike on a humanitarian aid distribution point. In Shebekino (Belgorod) a woman was injured by a drone strike on her car while another drone was destroyed over Voronezh.
7th/8th December
46 drones were destroyed/disabled overnight over: Belgorod (17); Kursk (12); Voronezh (6); Rostov (7) and Astrakhan (4).
8th/9th December
On the 8th December, the Ukrainian launched a HIMARS attack on a detention centre in Kursk region following a prisoner exchange. Many Ukrainian prisoners were killed along with Russians. Overnight, 3 drones were destroyed over Rostov while several more were destroyed over Belgorod. No casualties were reported but damage was caused to multi-storey apartments. However, in the DPR, eight civilians were wounded by cluster shelling and drone drops when a bus was attacked. On the 8th December, according to Boris Rozhin:
As a result of the terrorist attack in Donetsk, the former head of the colony in Elenovka, Vitaly Yevsyukov, was killed. An explosive device went off under the bottom of his SUV. Yevsyukov died, his wife's leg was torn off, she is now in the hospital.
9th/10th December
Overnight, Belgorod came under attack from done drops on a car which injured three people. In the DPR, another drone drop on a car injured a man in Gorlovka.
10th/11th December
In the DPR one man was seriously injured by a drone drop. On December 10th just outside Moscow, Mikhail Shatsky, a Russian Cruise missile designer, was assassinated by Ukrainian terrorists - according to Pravda.
12th/13th December
Overnight, 9 drones were destroyed over Rostov and one over Bryansk. Villages in Belgorod suffered drone attacks which damaged cars and buildings and injured one civilian. Shebekino suffered cluster artillery attacks along with Gorlovka in the DPR but no casualties were reported.
The Sea War
6th/7th December
According to the War Chronicle:
On the attack of the BECs [unmanned boats] of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Crimea last night. The first wave began around midnight. Su-30SMs were raised into the air, which eliminated 6 BECs 30-70 km from Sevastopol. At 4 a.m., another group of enemy boats was discovered south of Sudak, Gurzuf and Cape Opuk. Then they were spotted south of Cape Takil - a Ka-52 helicopter was sent to intercept them, but the BECs managed to escape. At 6 a.m., they appeared near the Kerch Strait, and Mi-8 helicopters were sent to intercept them. However, there were machine guns on the BECs, from which they opened fire on us, after such a shootout, the BECs disappeared.
Later
We continue. At 7 a.m., the BECs were seen near the Butoma plant and there they were finally destroyed in the amount of three pieces by Russian servicemen. At the same time, 4 BECs were discovered south of the Kerch Strait, but managed to escape.
11th/12th December
Overnight, Crimea was attacked with Neptune missiles, along with ‘Peklo’ and ‘Palyanitsya’ drone/missiles. The projectiles came from Odessa and many were shot down over the sea. According to this report, five drones were shot down and two disabled by electronic means. No damage was reported.
The Air War (Map)
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
7th/8th December
Geraniums attacked energy infrastructure in Zaporozhye overnight.
8th/9th December
Geraniums were in the air overnight once more. Ukrainian sources have spotted them over Dnipro, Poltava, Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev and Odessa - according to Slavyangrad.
10th/11th December
In the 10th December, Russian Iskanders attacked a hospital being used for military purposes in Zaporozhye. Many were killed including a high ranking NATO officer.
12th/13th December
Massive Missile/Drone Attack - Retaliation for the ATACMS
According to the War Chronicle:
In the morning, Kh-101/555 missiles flew at targets in Ukraine from strategic aviation. Several Iskander missiles hit targets in Kharkiv and Kremenchuk. Launches of Kalibr missiles from Navy ships in the Black Sea were registered an hour ago. By lunchtime we will see the results.
100 Geraniums were launched into the Ukrainian rear according to the Two Majors. Explosions were reported in Kharkov and Kremenchug - possibly caused by Iskanders. According to this report, KH-101s and TU-95s have entered Sumy while MiG-31s are also in the air. Strikes on substations have been reported in Odessa and X-101 cruise missiles were seen over the Khmelnytsky region. According to this report:
Loud blasts also reported in Ukrainian regions of Ivano-Frankovsk, Khmelnytsky, Cherkasy, Vinnitsa, Kremenchug, Poltava, Kharkov and Kiev as massive missile launch ongoing.
This Ukrainian source reports that only half the missiles/drones have been shot down. According to the US embassy the Russians are also targeting transport infrastructure. However, the Russian MoD is claiming that the strikes are targeting Ukrainian fuel and power infrastructure facilities. They also confirm that this is in retaliation for the ATACMS strike. The Ukrainians are claiming that 200 drones and 90 missiles were launched and Zelensky claims that 83 of the missiles were shot down - which is highly unlikely.
Ukrainian Missile/Drone Attacks
10th/11th December - ATACMS launched
Drones attacked an oil depot in Bryansk overnight causing a fire that was quickly extinguished. According to this report, six ATACMS missiles attacked the Aviation, Scientific and Technical Complex/Military Airfield in Taganrog but not all of them were shot down. However, the damage caused was minimal affecting only vehicles situated in the car park. The missiles were launched from Zaporozhye.
11th/12th December
According to the Two Majors:
In Grozny, a drone was shot down over the barracks buildings of the 'Special Police Regiment' of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Chechen Republic at 00:55. Four men on guard duty were slightly injured.
Chechen leader Kadyrov has vowed that 100 Ukrainians will be killed for every one of those injured in the attack.
The Ground War
Russian MoD Reports (excludes Kursk)
w/e 22nd November 13,860 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 535
w/e 29th November 12,620 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 413
w/e 6th December 13,160 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 432
w/e 13th December 12,090 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 370
Kursk - Totals
40,260 troops, 239 tanks, 177 infantry fighting vehicles, 125 armoured personnel carriers, 1,252 armoured fighting vehicles, 1,124 motor vehicles, 309 artillery guns, 40 MLRS launchers, including 11 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 13 anti-aircraft missile launchers. Daily casualties are approximately 200.
The Fronts
Front Line Cats
Kursk
On December 12th, according to the Two Majors:
In Kursk region, the 'North Troops Grouping' continues its offensive in the north of the Sudzhansky district, advancing east of the Novoivanovka settlement, as well as in forest areas near the village of MalayaLoknya. According to local assessments, a new element of the situation is the refusal of the AFU to launch counterattacks. The enemy's concentration on holding positions and creating tension on other parts of the state border.
By the end of the week, the Ukrainians had accumulated reserves and launched 3 unsuccessful counter attacks with only 20 soldiers.
On the 13th December, Yury Podolyaka gave this report associated with the above map:
Russian troops in Alexandria (Sumy region, Ukraine). South of Sudzha, the Russian army has entered the territory of Ukraine’s Sumy region near the village of Alexandria. This is essentially an empty farm north of Miropolye, which is a very large village, with well organized logistics and an asphalted road from Sumy. Full control over Miropolye will not only secure the flank of the Russian grouping advancing northward to liberate Sudzha, but it will also create a huge problem for Ukrainian logistics.
Kharkov
According to the Two Majors:
there are heavy battles in Volchansk. It is reported of the enemy using chemical substances that cause suffocation. In the Liptsy direction, strikes from RFAF FPV drones thwarted 1 AFU attack in the area of a dacha village.
Kupyansk
According to the Two Majors:
From Kupyansk direction, there are separate reports, south of the Dvurechnaya settlement, the bridgehead of our troops on the right bank of the Oskol River is expanding.
Chasiv Yar
By the end of the week, according to Marat Khairullin:
In Chasov Yar, Russian armed forces are advancing on the territory of the refractory plant, which is already about half under our control. There are also successes in the Severny microdistrict, which allowed us to reach the northern edge of the plant's territory. As a result, pressure is now coming from three sides, which has greatly worsened the enemy's ability to hold the line.
According to this report from Yury Podolyaka, the refractory plant fell on December 13th.
Toretsk
By the end of the week, according to Marat Khairullin:
In Toretsk, our military took control of the eastern waste heap of the Central mine and reached the area north of it. The enemy also lost control of the mine itself. Our soldiers control a significant part of it, and fighting continues on the rest. This mine with waste heaps was a key part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense in Toretsk, and our control over it will collapse their defense in the city.
Pokrovsk
On December 12th, according to the Two Majors:
In Pokrovsk direction, the RFAF are expanding their zone of control south of the city. The fighting is taking place on the outskirts of Vozrozhdeniya (NovyTruda), near Shevchenko and in the area of Novotroitskoye.
Pokrovsk Detail - Marat Khairullin
By the end of the week, the Russians had advanced to the southern part of Sontsovka, liberated the village of Zarya and were just one and a half kms from Pokrovsk.
Kurakhovo
On the 10th December, Ukrainian troops started to retreat from Kurakhovo.
On December 12th, according to Two Majors:
In Kurakhovo direction, the 'East Troops Grouping' south of Kurakhovo is gradually moving on the right bank of the Sukhiye Yaly River. Fighting continues near the settlements of VeselyGay and Konstantinopolskoye. There is intense fighting northeast of VelikayaNovosyolka. The AFU is counterattacking in the area of NovyKomar and Razdolnoye. South of VelikayaNovosyolka, the enemy, supported by armoured vehicles, attempted to attack our positions in Blagodatnoye and was annihilated. There is an advance of the RFAF in the area of Ravnopol our units are gradually advancing through the forest belts.
As you can see from the map, Ukrainian forces south of Kurakhovo are on the verge of being trapped in a cauldron.
Kurakhovo Detail - Marat Khairullin
Velyka Novolsilka
By the end of the week, the Russians continued to advance southwest of Velikaya Novosyolka - in the direction of Storozhevy and Neskuchny.
Zaporozhye
On the 13th December, according to the Majors:
On the Zaporozhye front, the RFAF are striking at enemy concentration sites and UAV operator sites in the Vasilievsky direction (Stepnogorsk).
The Economic War
Ukraine to Get $20 Billions Loan
The US treasury has announced that Ukraine will receive a $20 billions loan courtesy of the good old US taxpayer. Repayment is to made by allowing Ukraine to steal frozen Russian assets. I think the US has now provided more than $100 billion funding to Ukraine.
This has become possible because Belgium based clearing house, Euroclear, has frozen $213 billions in Russian assets on instruction from the EU. These funds have generated approximately $5 billion in interest in the past nine months and some of this has been given to Ukraine. But Euroclear is getting nervous that the Russians may seek to recover their funds in future and they may have a strong legal case to do so. The clearing house has therefore requested that legal liability moves along with the funds. Valerie Urbain of Euroclear has warned that the seizure of Russians funds poses severe risks to the Euro and to the EU economy in general. You can read more at Sputnik.
Oil Sanctions Backfire on the Environment
Sanctions very often have unintended consequences - as the Europeans know only too well. But sanctions against Russian oil have facilitated a massive increase in ‘shadow vessels’ (unregulated vessels) which are transporting oil, including Russian oil, using ageing and substandard shipping thereby risking environmental disasters on the oceans. There have already been accidents involving such ships including the collision between Ceres 1 and Andromeda Star. Also, in December 2023 the Liberty went aground in the Strait of Mallaca with a million barrels of Venezuelan oil on board.
According to Atlantic Council:
Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the shadow fleet—which previously mostly transported goods to and from Iran and Venezuela—has exploded in size. Today, around 17 percent of all oil tankers are estimated to belong to the shadow fleet, which also comprises other merchant vessels. When the shadow fleet was much smaller, the global maritime community could manage the risks posed by it. Today, by contrast, the fleet’s size means it poses immediate risks to a large number of crews, coastal states, vessels, and to the maritime environment.
Germany’s Wind Power Too Weak
The wind has not been blowing strong enough in Ukraine so the windmills are not turning and there is not enough electricity generated to satisfy demand. Oh dear. Green energy is OK only when the wind is blowing and the sun shining. You can read more at Zero Hedge.
Russia-India Oil Deal
Russia's state oil firm Rosneft, has agreed to supply nearly 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude to Indian private refiner Reliance, in the biggest ever energy deal between the two countries, three sources familiar with the deal said - Reuters
This is a ten year deal. Both Russia and India will benefit from this arrangement - so I think that any Western attempts to separate India from Russia are pointless - but maybe Annalena of Baerbock could be persuaded to give it a try!
Moldova Declares State of Emergency
Moldova has declared a 60 day state of emergency due to Ukraine’s threat to cut off the transit of Russian gas - according to Tass. Transnistria is also likely to be affected and has announced a state of emergency. This could be a political move and is not supported by the opposition but there is a danger that the Ukrainians could cut off Russian gas in January.
World Politics
Trump Invites Xi To Inauguration
Donald Trump has invited Xi Jinping to his inauguration on January 20th according to Tass. It appears that Xi will not accept the invitation. The once great Z has not yet been invited.
NATO - The Toothless Tiger
In spite of all the unconvincing Bravado coming from Western leaders proclaiming that ‘The British Army is ready to fight’ or ‘We will not rule out sending French troops to Ukraine’ - it is pathetic really because the Europeans are defenseless. If it came to all out war: if the Russians decided to give some European military bases the Oreshnik Treatment what would the Europeans do? Would they a) March on Moscow Barbarossa style b) Retreat from Moscow in the Napoleonic style or c) Stay Put!
I think Europeans, recognising the military realities, would do nothing but huff and puff.
Poor Syria
Imagine that life in your country was as unsettled as this 75 year period in Syria’s history. The following was provided by Boris Rozhin:
1949 - three military coups;
1951 - military coup;
1954 - general uprising and coup;
1961 - military coup;
1962 - two military coups;
1963 - military coup, Baath Party comes to power;
1966 - military coup headed by Assad;
1968-69 - riots in the country's main cities;
1970 - military coup, Assad father comes to power;
1976-82 - civil war between the Assad government and Islamists. Mass killings in Aleppo. Hama was completely destroyed in 1982 fights;
1984 - President Assad's younger brother tries unsuccessfully to overthrow his brother;
From 1985, 20 years of relative stability under the Assad clan dictatorship;
2000 - death of Assad the father, power transfer to his son;
2005 - failed attempt to overthrow Assad son by Vice President Haddam, a close associate of Hafez Assad;
Since 2011 - ongoing war, as we all know
Germany - AfD Candidate Calls To Stop Ukraine Funding
Alice Weidel, the AfD’s first ever candidate for Chancellor, wants to stop the Ukraine war:
We want peace in Ukraine. We do not want any arms supplies, we do not want any tanks, we do not want any missiles. We do not want Taurus for Ukraine, which would make Germany a party to the war
The 45 year old proclaimed that the AfD is a peace party - stealing that mantle from ‘the left’. Some say she has little chance of winning with the AfD attracting only 18% of the popular vote - according to RT. Of course, the party could still be banned at some point. The ‘right wing’ AfD would introduce immigration restrictions and is against policies on ‘Climate Change’ (i.e. global warming) but it is not a Nazi Party.
Ukraine Will Be Sliced Into Pieces - Fico
Slovak PM Robert Fico has warned that Ukraine will be ‘sliced up’ just as Czechoslovakia was in 1938 once its usefulness to the West expires. And it will never be allowed to join NATO. So true. Fico also commentated on Biden’s insistence that Ukraine recruit 18 year old boys which is not really any of his business. Fico believes that Ukraine could lose one third of its territory.
Orban Wants Christmas Truce
Viktor Orban has asked Zelensky to consider a Christmas Truce and an exchange of POWs - but he refused. Andriy Yermak is also opposed to negotiations according to this. I don’t think Putin would have been keen on the idea anyway. But it’s a nice thought - Happy Christmas War Is Over.
Romania
The election in Romania has been cancelled at a point when pro-Russian candidate Georgescu was leading his pro-Western opponent 63% to 37%.. Anti Western victories are no longer allowed in elections. Georgescu has described the Constitutional Court’s decision as a coup d'état.
Crazy Kaja
Former Estonian PM Kaya Kallas is the new European Foreign Policy Chief, taking over from dear old ‘Jungle’ Josep Borrell. Kallas’s anti-Russian rhetoric has featured on the Update once or twice. Speaking at a Politico event in Brussels, she showed that she has learned the tough talking narrative which is de rigueur for Western leaders. ‘If you don’t want problems with China’, she said, ‘you have to be really strong on Russia’. In a diplomatic approach that appears designed to deal with errant children, she proclaimed:
If you are really firm and you are not giving them what they want, it’s more probable that you won’t have more wars.
Such an approach will make China think twice about invading Taiwan - or so she believes. This is the same old Western mentality housed in an appealing frame and presented as simplistic home spun wisdom parents can relate to. But it is more a moral position than Realpolitik. I have no idea how not giving Russia what it wants - i.e. victory in Ukraine (presumably) - will prevent more wars. How does that work?
Kallas in a lawyer by profession and has one child. She lived in Estonia during the Soviet era which could account for her condemnation of Russia - which is not the Soviet Union.
Wise Westerners - Keuter (AfD)
Bundestag member Stefan Keuter demonstrates that rationality is not totally dead in Germany. Criticising his war like colleagues, he said:
People would like to be separated from the old parties that are going to defend Ukraine to the last. I still have pacifist slogans from them. And now they are on the front lines with all these arms deliveries and escalation. They know about war at most from stories told by their grandparents or from video games. You have to understand that a great power like Russia has its own security interests and it will pursue them on its borders, just like the US, in the Caribbean and South America.
Q - When is a Terrorist Not a Terrorist?
A - ‘When We Say So!’
The Biden Administration is considering a ‘rebranding’ of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, formerly al-Qaeda) as a non-terrorist group. But if you look closely Sleepy Joe the group is behaving just like a terrorist organisation in Syria with pogroms and executions of its rivals or those who have offended it. Another report suggests that HTS are killing soldiers, Alawites and Kurds while mocking Christians. You can read more here.
Q - When is An Invasion Not An Invasion?
A - When it is conducted by Israel.
Protests
French Farmers
In Dijon (Burgundy) farmers are protesting against the free trade agreement between the EU and Latin American organisation, MERCOSUR which will affect their livelihoods. They arrived in the City Centre with 70 tractors and dumped hay, tyres and manure onto the streets. You can read more at Sputnik.
The emerging Multi-Polar World Order
CSTO Meets in Moscow
The Collective Treaty Security Organisation met in Moscow on the 9th December with Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin in the chair. Delegations from Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have arrived in the Russian capital. They discussed security challenges and threats - according to Tass.
Sergey Naryshkin on the MPWO
Naryshkin, Director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, speaking to a Russian news magazine, has made some interesting comments about Western decay and the rise of the MPWO. ‘We are witnessing a genuine decolonisation of the Global South, which is beginning to see itself as a fully fledged political entity rather than someone’s back yard’, he said.
He believes that the West has resorted to openly terroristic methods to impose its control because it can no longer afford to manufacture consent through bribery. The assassination attempt on Robert Fico, the backing of Nazis and terrorism in Ukraine, the sanctioning of genocide in Gaza and Lebanon and the elevation of terrorist groups to control Syria are examples of this. There are many others.
He also believes that Western countries are attempting to create a global conflict with its epicentre in Eurasia but this will lead to a strategic defeat of the West rather than the exhaustion of Russia. Naryshkin would welcome Europe and the US into the MPWO as equals.
He also said that Russia is close to achieving its goals in the SMO
You can read the full interview here.
Cuba and Bolivia to Join BRICS
Cuba and Bolivia will join BRICS as partner countries from January 1 - Sergei Ryabkov, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation told Izvestia.
Well that’s it for another eventful week which has kept me very busy. Many thanks for your views, subscriptions, likes, shares, restacks and comments. Have a good week. Best Rob.
Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.
World domination board game.
Syria's most effective General in the field (Brig Gen Hussam Luka, I think), has, according to Pepe Escobar, fled to Russia, and is providing the Russians with a lot of strategic information about Syria.
Unlike western knee-jerkers, Russia and Iran get all their ducks in a row before they make a move, and they tend to let the enemy come to them. I suspect that there is a lot going on with the two that we are not seeing.
I recall that the Oreshnik that pulverised that military installation - so badly that Ukraine refuses to release pictures of the dust pile that it caused - was a test run. I suspect that Russia is peddling like hell to get Oreshniks prepared and in position in both the west, and east, of Russia. The latter in striking distance of the US.
Russia clearly stated its goals for Ukraine at the outset: de-militarisation and de-nazification. No peace deal will be contemplated unless these conditions are met. Trump needs to understand this.
Thanks for the very well compiled update Rob.
It was another surreal week where global forces keep delivering their insane plans on the World.
The UAF troops have to be on medication-to sit around in these envelopment battles (e.g. Trudovoye area) and not even mutiny or disobey orders and retreat.
They have nothing to lose so take a few blocking detachment troops with them or surrender.
What does anyone think of the mysterious drone swarms and activity in the US?
In my opinion, the very fact that the US is not taking much action against it whilst pointing the finger at the usual suspects is telling.
Perhaps another psychological operation attempt to create mass hysteria amongst those that still believe the propaganda.