Syria Falls

A Brief Update

Abu Mohammad al-Julani (HTS leader) in the Umayyad Mosque - Damascus.

The fall of Syria within ten days, and the resignation of Bashar Assad have quite rightly dominated the thoughts of most commentators this week. Assad is now in Moscow. This has the appearance of yet another Western attempt at a ‘second front’ proxy war designed to overextend Russia - but Putin did not play ball. However, I should say that there are many other dynamics in play here over which the West could lose control. According to Alistair Crooke, about one third of the attackers are professional Jihadists from outside of Syria (e.g. Chechens and Uzbeks). They are led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani of terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) who has been been boasting about taking Aleppo and Damascus for months - according to Alex Krainer.

This is such an important development that I felt compelled to write about it as something that could have and may still affect the trajectory of the conflict between the Hegemon and the emerging MPWO. I am providing a separate article because its inclusion in the Update would make it too long for many. I appreciate that many of my readers will already be acquainted with much of what I am describing - but then, many more will not.

Brief Background

In 2011, anti-government forces carried out demonstrations throughout Syria (probably with US backing) opposing Assad’s authoritarian rule and demanding his resignation. Assad responded with changes to the constitution establishing a multi-party system and holding Presidential elections on a competitive basis. In 2014, Assad won the Presidential election with 88% of the vote but none of this reduced tensions and a civil war broke out. The rebels were backed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, the US and a number of European countries. Talks failed to resolve the situation and a number of terrorist groups - including Islamic State and an earlier version of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (i.e. current combatants HTS) - joined the fight. However, the situation was stabilized with Russian military help and by 2020 the hot phase of the civil war ended with Assad in charge of 70% of the country. The US, which has engineered the current situation, has made no secret of its ambitions to bring down Bashar Assad and to gain more influence/leverage in the area due to the agricultural and carbon resources - as Brian Berletic discusses here. You can read a chronology at Tass.

It should be said that there is a large Kurdish population in Turkiye who want their own state: partly due to the fact that they have been oppressed and their language banned. They have been a thorn in Erdogan’s side since he took office in 2014. Many of these were displaced into Syria during the 20th century. Erdogan wants to topple the Kurdish Autonomous Administration, the Kurds have established in north and east Syria

Syria Map

Recent Events

HTS and other terrorist organisations began their assaults on November the 27th. Aleppo and other provinces soon fell with very little (if any) resistance. The rapidity of Syria’s collapse has been staggering, leading to suspicions that many army officers had been bribed beforehand - as Daniel David discusses here. Some say that many areas had been infiltrated with Jihadis for months before the attack. It is well known that the terrorist network which has existed in Idlib for years has been attacking Syrian government positions since 2022.

It is also possible that Assad knew he was facing a new offensive from Jihadi forces, recently armed to the teeth by Westerners and Turkiye and, knowing that his army was in a dire state, decided that it would be best if he simply allowed it to surrender to avoid bloodshed in a conflict which it could not win. This is the view taken by Jacques Baud who has a greater knowledge than most about this region. You can access his analysis here.

This has the appearance of a huge setback for Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestine - but only time will tell. HTS, which came out of Al Qaeda, is not the ‘diversity friendly’, cuddly terrorist organisation being depicted by Western fantasies. Only time will tell how vicious they will prove to be. The US has a long history of using terrorist organisations but maybe this time, it could backfire. Many of the Jihadists have been trained by the CIA.

Members of the HTS are Sunnis and are not favourably disposed towards Shia Muslims: I don’t think they like Christians very much either. They could even impose Sharia Law. Indeed, on December 9th, HTS threatened to create a Caliphate with the goal of reaching the Al Aqsa Mosque in Israel and the Kaaba in Mecca. A Caliphate is a multi ethnic, trans-national Empire. You can see footage of the threats in the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus at X. Some reports coming from Syria appear to confirm that Abu Mohammed al-Julani and the HTS are acting according to their nature. I have seen footage of a hanging, a report of a beheading, reports of executions, footage of women being abducted, footage of looting and so on.

The Syrian National Army (SNA), a terrorist organisation backed by Erdogan, is also among the forces taking territory in Syria. The US has warned SNA and HTS not to encroach on (US-backed) Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) areas in Deir Ez Zor and Raqqa, including the Western Bank of the Euphrates River. They don’t want their milking of Syrian sources to be interrupted. Westerners are also hoping to construct a lucrative non-Russian/non-Iranian pipeline link with Europe - as you can read here.

The IDF has taken advantage of the situation like the vultures they are by capturing settlements in the Golan Heights including the Syrian section of Hermon Mount (south of Damascus). It claims to be protecting its border. Netanyahu has insisted that the Golan Heights will now be a permanent part of Israel. According to this report, on the 10th December the Israelis were marching towards Damascus. According to this report, HTS militants are clashing with Israeli raid teams in the suburbs of the Capital. The HTS has vowed to take back all Syrian territories occupied by others, including the section of the Golan Heights occupied by Israel and maybe those border territories occupied by Turkiye in the north.

What has the West unleashed?

Within this melee, the Kurds face eviction from the Syrian lands they occupy and there are enclaves in the desert occupied by Isis. You can read more at the Two Majors. In spite of Erdogan’s apparent treachery, it appears that Russia, Iran and Turkiye are attempting to present a united front. I am not sure why. Iran, Russia and Hezbollah will not let themselves be drawn into a conflict which will be difficult to win, though the West was probably hoping that they would take the bait. The terrorists have guaranteed the security of Russian bases along with diplomatic and military personnel - according to Slayangrad.

North Syria Map - 9th December

South Syria - 9th December

By December 9th, since all the major provinces (Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Idlib and Damascus) are under terrorist control and Assad out of the picture, the capture of Syria has been virtually completed. However, this does not mean that the fighting and violence have ended: there is a high risk of clashes between the various groups. On the 9th December, according to Slavyangrad:

Fighting is expanding in Syria between pro-Turkish militias and American-backed Kurds who control the northern parts of the country. There was already fighting between the two yesterday. And now the pro-Turkish "Syrian National Army" publicks are writing about the upcoming battles for Raqqa. It was the capital of ISIS until it was stormed by the Kurds. The US, which supports the Kurds, is already calling for sanctions against Turkey.

Blogger Hikaru Kitabayashi has warned that:

Kurds, the traditional allies of the Hebrew speaking West Asian political enclave and its American backers will continue to fight Turks, as well as Iraqi Arabs. Azerbaijan will continue to seek the destabilization of Iran, as will Turkey, the EU, NATO, and, of course, the enclave, itself. Mercenaries from Central Asia will continue to sell their services to the highest bidder.

Millions of refugees will now flee the country and the level of misery experienced by the people in Gaza and Lebanon has now been extended to Syria. However, it is also reported that thousands of Syrians are returning to their native land following the fall of Assad. You can see some images here though I can’t vouch for their authenticity.

Individuals such as Erdogan and Netanyahu may benefit but for the people of the region this is a catastrophe. The West’s sanctions on Assad’s Syria have brought the country to economic collapse while many of its citizens are starving and lacking electricity. Western leaders are now rejoicing the removal of the ‘tyrant’ Assad and his replacement by what could turn out to be a very bloodthirsty regime which is recognised by the West as a terrorist organisation. But the West wants to re-label HTS as a liberation movement since a terrorist organisation fighting in the interests of the West can’t possibly be terrorist, can it. The same attitude was adopted towards Ukrainian Nazis - as we all know.

Some Westerners, such as Lithuania’s foreign minister, have drawn the wrong conclusions from the Syrian debacle:

The example of Syria shows that Russia can be kicked out and will return home. The Baltic countries were right - the West was strong enough to win. We do not need to be afraid of the "bear" in Ukraine or anywhere else where he sows chaos," - Lithuanian Foreign Minister.

This sounds like one of the erroneous assumptions from The Long Telegram I referred to last week: i.e. that Russians will retreat under pressure. The Russian presence in Syria was not huge and given the precipitous collapse it is possiblr that both the Russians and the Iranians appreciated the fait accompli and acted wisely by urging a peaceful settlement in accordance with the 2015 UN Security Counsel Resolution 2254. According to Brian Berletic, Assad’s failure to maintain and reinforce the army is a major factor in facilitating the success of the insurgents. Assad refused Russia’s assistance in doing this.

Russian spokesmen have said very little about the development which suggests that they are embarrassed by it. Every government dishes out propaganda - that’s just what governments do. But I think Russia is less prone to do so than others. Instead, rather than tell lies, they just keep mum.¹ It appears that Erdogan has broken agreements with Russia and Iran in backing the Jihadists - according to Alistair Crooke.

The Palestine Chronicle presents a pragmatic view that takes account of the pressure Russia is under from NATO with Western escalation in Ukraine, military bases like Ramstein being beefed up, a ‘colour revolution’ ongoing in Georgia and election rigging in Moldova and Romania:

Against this background, and putting the home front first, Russia decided it could not afford any more military support for Syria. Possibly a deal was done with the US on the basis of a Russian standdown in Syria in exchange for a US standdown in Ukraine. With Russia unable to back Syria any longer, Iran also fell back.

It may sound harsh but if the above accounts accurately reflect the situation in Syria then I think the Russians were wise in avoiding a Western Web that could have entangled them in disaster. Alistair Crooke provides an erudite report here.

Anyway, being an optimist, I will assume that things are not as bad as they first appear. Marat Khairullin is among those finding a silver lining.

Khairullin notes that the loss of Syria as a trade route to Africa has been compensated by the development by the Russians of a north-south land/sea route:

The fact is that the fall of Syria occurred immediately after the launch of the North-South land corridor at full capacity. From the ports of St. Petersburg along the trans-Caspian land highway through Azerbaijan and Iran to the ports of the Indian Ocean. The project began to be implemented back in 2000. This will be one of Putin's great legacies. His major achievement.

Khairullin also points out that in spite of all this, Russia and Turkiye, who had differences with regard to Syria and Assad, are now allies.

I hope he is right.

Alex Krainer also provides some optimism in his stated belief that the West has fallen into a trap by supporting this conflict, just as the Russians were drawn into Afghanistan by the West many years ago. Krainer suggests that only this hypothesis can explain the sudden collapse in Syria - nothing else makes sense. He also believes that Erdogan could have been party to this arrangement but concedes that he could be wrong on all counts. It does not follow that the only explanation that makes sense is true: there could be another explanation that makes sense which hasn’t been discovered.

I think that this could be a setback but isn’t that to be expected as an Empire strives to prevent its collapse and its nervous successors hesitate. There will be more setbacks but the trajectory of the new world will not be diverted. I appreciate that as soon as I publish this, it will be out of date.

Best wishes

The Busker

1. Keep Quiet.