It is amazing that a country with delusions of grandeur has allowed its missiles [the same missiles it is short of for its own defence] to be used to officially start WW3. Does it not realize that for many days or weeks it has to import gas by pipeline from Norway and electricity by cable from Europe to function? Has it not learned from the German experience of a destroyed economy after the West blew up the Nordstream pipelines? Why is it retaining two white elephant aircraft carriers when it does not have the crew, aircraft, money, resources or support ships to help to achieve what purpose, and in war games they are quickly lost?
Ian Welsh has several good ideas of Russia's goals and how the Conflict in Ukraine might end.
Just been watching Colonel McGregor who is quite convinced that Russian will invade Kiev. Whatever happens, he believes Russia will now step on the gas. I'll give Ian Welsh a look. Thanks Bill.
People have an optimism bias, so they don't want to believe their country is a malicious sadistic corrupt oligarchy that almost never tells the truth. Because of this, decline has a pernicious denial mentality that comes with it, and sustains eye popping seemingly irrational moves. For those of us who have crossed the curtain of doubt, we see the hubris as proof that our leaders are deeply manipulative. Our leaders do not have the slightest care for human life, rights, democracy, fairness or any of the other pillars of our "benevolent" societies. The blood thirsty killers are sustained by people, often a majority, who can't find the energy or will to actively withwithhold their support for it. Like junkies or battered spouses, they just keep going back to the source of their pain to get relief.
When you have conversations with these people, you can demonstrate a long history of previous lies they treated as truth in the recent past, and sometimes they will agree that they were fooled before. But it is startling how few will extrapolate forward and see the bullshit of today for what it is, based on the history of their sources being full of sh!t in the past. Our leaders almost exclusively go to war based on fabricated casus belli, and very rarely achieve any intended goals other than selling weapons.
Painful but true - thanks for that. I've written some stuff in my philosophy shorts (Independent thinking) about how hard it is for people to accept a new world view - or a new version of reality: to cross the curtain of doubt as you so eloquently put it. My wife's sister, who lives in London, expressed an interest in BRICS recently so I sent her a link to my Substack. That was about three weeks ago and we haven't heard from her. She was probably freaked out by the things she was reading. Most people just can't cope with the truth.
It depends on the culture and delusion of grandeur. Southern and Eastern Europeans have been somewhat inured to dysfunction. Anglosaxons have quite a long fall coming.
I'm looking at it from a personal point of view when I talk about this reluctance to accept a new reality. It's difficult for people to do this whichever background they come from. My wife's sister doesn't have delusions of grandeur: she is simply too preoccupied with her art and her Tango dancing to take any notice of what's going on in the world. It's not only the Anglo-Saxons who have a fall coming - us Celts will also suffer.
When I discussed imminent the imminent danger to Britain, posed by Starmer's ill-conceived actions, my London friend replied, "It doesn't really seem to have broken into or affected the public consciousness over here though. I think people just assume that wars only happen in far way places and that they are protected... People are usually more concerned with cost of living etc or are busily consumed in other wokery such as gender ideology." Sad, but true.
There are still many realists in the UK as i recently discovered. I jokingly searched nuclear bunker manufacturers UK the other day. I was shocked to see there were many and they were providing for Joe Average not just the billionaires. What was more frightening - they were sold out and couldn't supply. They were basically shipping containers installedn underground. My local authority is funny granting planning permission for shipping containers above ground never mind as a nuclear bunker below ground. I've taken solace from the fact that i know my local authority wouldn't grant me planning permission for a nuclear bunker because it could impact on the setting of the listed building next door and it would upset all my neighbours who would object to planning because they would be envious that i had a potential escape room from nuclear armageddon.
If you boil it and boil it until the final underlying pillar enabling the delusion is left, I think we'll see it is that some countries can live off their past reputation, banking and infrastructure of international confiscation. Even countries that contribute more destruction than benefit can milk that for decades, but eventually, what they call "boundary conditions" in mathematics eventually diffuse into the core of the system and force people to face reality. The delay between cause and effect provides many ways to divert blame when in hindsight everyone agrees the delusions were "obvious ". Look how people refer to the 2008 train wreck as a surprise.
Well, our childish neocon leaders are well on their, unstoppable, way towards leading us into WW3.
On behalf of the nazi loving banderists and comedian.
You couldn't make it up?
A big coincidence too that this was just after the Aegis missile defence installation was completed in Poland-that the dementia patient relayed the NWO decision to unleash missiles into Russia.
Followed by their nwo lapdogs in the UK Starmer and Lammy putting targets on everyone's heads in the UK. Plus Europe for that matter.
Like yourself and Simplicus I don't think Russia will take the bait and attack a NATO country.
However as the escalations increase and the missiles are targeted further that could change dynamically.
Hopefully the World does not get to that stage.
But those in power still don't take Russian concerns seriously and refuse to back down.
Other than that the UAF is being slaughtered in its fortified leave behind areas.
Very similar to the Gerrmans being pushed back by the Russians in WW2 and Hitler leaving orders to create the 'festungs' or fortresses behind enemy lines.
The only difference is todays leaders have the knowledge today that it was a bad idea but still they pursue.
Also the West is using their MSM strike weapon to inform of the imaginary engaged N.Korean army.
With no proof of prisoners captured and paraded on TV that would be the first priority for the war mongers.
But no one questions anymore.
Tough times and respect to the RF for being the adult in the room.
Many thanks for that Anthony. It is flattering indeed to be mentioned in the same sentence as Simplicius. I missed the Aegis defence system in Poland. When talking about places that could be attacked Maria Zakharova mentioned somewhere in Poland. Yes, I remember Hitler and the fortress Cities. The legacy media and politicians have been harping on about the North Koreans but not one photograph or film has been produced.
Anthony you have prompted a memory with Festung. Can you remember the incident in late 41 or early 42 where the German battle group was surrounded but successfully held off the Russians for months? This was the example which gave rise to Hitler's refusal to permit retreat. It must be age, i can't remember its name. Its not Korsun/ Cherkasy.
I believe there was actually another pocket linked to that one as well in the same area.
You are right the successful holding of this pocket in early 1942 gave Goring and Hitler the idea that they could hold the far larger Stalingrad pocket by airlifts.
I remember it now. Glantz and House cover it in the abridged version of Stalingrad. If the Luftwaffe had not been successful at Demyansk maybe the Stalingrad airlift would never have been attempted. I don't think there was a single day of the airlift when the Germans received the supplies they needed (or were promised) at Stalingrad.
Strange i can Like on my computer but not my tablet. I think you are right- i can't remember the daily tonnage needed, but it was never met. I still hold to theory that the failure to take Moscow in 1941 was the decisive factor, not Stalingrad. But when you look at the Russian spirit and tenacity I'm not convinced even the capture of Moscow would have proved conclusive.
Funny you should say that. I have believed for many years that Moscow was a turning point. I've read lots of books about it including: 'The Greatest Battle' by Andrew Nagorski. It was not just the fact that the Nazis failed to take Moscow: the German army was decisively beaten and therefore no longer invincible.
Yes i agree. There's a Scottish GP who writes about the Eastern Front. One of his patients was a nurse on the Eastern Front when the Russians broke into East Prussia she told him her story and he started writing about the war in the East afterwards: Pritt Buttar.
Yes Rob. Can't remember exact figures but I think the 6th army requested something like 600 tonnes a day. The most delivered on a single day was 170 tonnes I think. But average was much lower, e.g. 20 tonnes.
From history those battles on the eastern front in WW2 seem reminiscent of recent Ukrainian tactics where they seem to attack headlong into defence lines with poor logistics, numerical inferiorities and next to no air cover.
A blatant disregard for lives.
Strange tactics none the less. Perhaps it is a plea tactic to the West, like., 'look we are struggling please join us and start WW3.
The Deep State are doing everything they can to hand Trump a poison chalice. Their recent gambit, the ATACMs and Storm Shadow salvos into Russia, are, according to Col Douglas McGregor, "The equivalent of giving a patient on life support (Ukraine) a haircut and a shave." Therefore, it will do nothing to alter the outcome of the war. And Putin's response showed that while the Deep State plays chequers, Putin plays chess. They gave him a grand opportunity to unveil his mach 10 missile, in a Ya-Boo-Sucks move that had the collective west pooing their collective pants. Every move they make just puts Putin in a stronger position for the final negotiation on Ukraine.
It looks as thought Trump Mark 2 will be a very different proposition to his first term's efforts. Live and learn. The MSM, and a lot of people on social media, are having a field day getting stuck into Musk. Trump is keeping him close. Trump knows his limitations in the area of strategic thinking, so has recruited a few smarties around himself, to try to prevent the Deep State from snookering him a second time. Pass the popcorn.
Thanks for that Joy. I watched the video where McGregor said that - good line. I wish Trump would employ him. This has played out well for Russia in terms of optics and hopefully as a warning - but not so well for those underneath the hazel tree!
Another great piece. For some reason i can never Like other posts. Some technical issue at my end. As an aside each Storm Shadow that Britain gives to Ukraine amounts to £100 to 20,000 British pensioners this winter. I don't know if I am being too left field in my thinking but it seems to me Britain and France are the main players with escalation just before Trump's inauguration. Both Trump and Putin may have an axe to grind against Britain and France. Consider the example of Iran and Israel where there has clearly been agreed face saving retaliatory strikes. Whats to stop Trump agreeing to a limited retaliatory strike on a British or French asset by Russia as payback from both? NATO cant or wont do anything without US backing. France has an independent nuclear option, Britain doesn't. Britain or a British asset therefore would be a tempting target for a limited strike. The problem with striking Poland or Romania is that they are too close to the contact line and can easily get physically involved and their response is unpredictable. Britain, however, might deemed controllable by her dependence on the US. The point im making is that if i were freebie Starmer i wouldn't be testing the Russians.
I think Putin will be mindful of how his actions will look to the 'global majority' - so I would be surprised if he attacked anywhere outside of Ukraine. But if Ukraine/NATO ignores the warning and launches everything it can at Moscow or a NPP - then - who knows?
I bought a suit recently from a well known Glasgow tailor in its Dundee branch. It was good quality material, well cut, nice look. Made in China. I only noticed this the other day. You should read Inglorious Empire. One story i remember is that we tried to kill the Indian steel industry. If you look at the legislation that was passed by Britain in the 1920-40s in India to give them the chimera of self rule its clearly the model for the Celtic periphery in the presence with devolved powers. The heavy industry destruction in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and the North of England was also carried out by we. Im also reading Asa Winstanley's book on Corbyn at the moment. Very interesting read.
Thanks Michael - you always provide some good stuff. I have read lots about what the British Empire did to the developing world. I haven't read Inglorious Empire though. I've read a few books on Corbyn but that's not one of them. It's so sad how it turned out after the promise it offered. But we were naive to believe that the hard left would be allowed to take over the Labour Party. You live and learn.
James Kunstler is a really nice guy. We have emailed several times over the years and a couple of years ago he helped calm me down when I started panicking over Ukraine. I started looking at his work after reading "The Long Emergency" [excellent] and I enjoyed his world made by hand novels.
Kunstler can be funny with wry cynicism but if you are counting on his exaggerated prognostications being true, you could be disappointed. I like people like him or Tiabbi who have been open to all sides of politics.
He is one of the few people I look at frequently. Over the years I have found several really good sites. Some I like and then find either I or the writer change, and I stop looking at them. For an example, I really liked James Howard Kunstler for his ideas on the future, but he does seem to have become very political.
I should also have added that following the neo-liberal revolution, Britain and most of the west has little or no manufacturing capacity. Since the closure of the virgin steel works in Wales, Britain doesn't make the high quality steel needed for weapon system, can't manufacture its own textiles for the military, and imports more of its food, and other manufactured items. During the 1990s when I worked for a machinery manufacturer in Devon, 1 or two container loads of used manufacturing machinery [lathes and milling machines] were being sold to India and China. Now there are very few with the skills to make and repair the machines to make the goods for Britain. It is sad that what used to be the workshop of the world, now imports so much.
Thank you
It is amazing that a country with delusions of grandeur has allowed its missiles [the same missiles it is short of for its own defence] to be used to officially start WW3. Does it not realize that for many days or weeks it has to import gas by pipeline from Norway and electricity by cable from Europe to function? Has it not learned from the German experience of a destroyed economy after the West blew up the Nordstream pipelines? Why is it retaining two white elephant aircraft carriers when it does not have the crew, aircraft, money, resources or support ships to help to achieve what purpose, and in war games they are quickly lost?
Ian Welsh has several good ideas of Russia's goals and how the Conflict in Ukraine might end.
Just looked up Ian Welsh who makes a lot of sense - thank you.
Just been watching Colonel McGregor who is quite convinced that Russian will invade Kiev. Whatever happens, he believes Russia will now step on the gas. I'll give Ian Welsh a look. Thanks Bill.
"Maybe he’s been pursuing too many lines."
Don't you mean using too many lines?
That's precisely what I mean.
People have an optimism bias, so they don't want to believe their country is a malicious sadistic corrupt oligarchy that almost never tells the truth. Because of this, decline has a pernicious denial mentality that comes with it, and sustains eye popping seemingly irrational moves. For those of us who have crossed the curtain of doubt, we see the hubris as proof that our leaders are deeply manipulative. Our leaders do not have the slightest care for human life, rights, democracy, fairness or any of the other pillars of our "benevolent" societies. The blood thirsty killers are sustained by people, often a majority, who can't find the energy or will to actively withwithhold their support for it. Like junkies or battered spouses, they just keep going back to the source of their pain to get relief.
When you have conversations with these people, you can demonstrate a long history of previous lies they treated as truth in the recent past, and sometimes they will agree that they were fooled before. But it is startling how few will extrapolate forward and see the bullshit of today for what it is, based on the history of their sources being full of sh!t in the past. Our leaders almost exclusively go to war based on fabricated casus belli, and very rarely achieve any intended goals other than selling weapons.
Painful but true - thanks for that. I've written some stuff in my philosophy shorts (Independent thinking) about how hard it is for people to accept a new world view - or a new version of reality: to cross the curtain of doubt as you so eloquently put it. My wife's sister, who lives in London, expressed an interest in BRICS recently so I sent her a link to my Substack. That was about three weeks ago and we haven't heard from her. She was probably freaked out by the things she was reading. Most people just can't cope with the truth.
It depends on the culture and delusion of grandeur. Southern and Eastern Europeans have been somewhat inured to dysfunction. Anglosaxons have quite a long fall coming.
I'm looking at it from a personal point of view when I talk about this reluctance to accept a new reality. It's difficult for people to do this whichever background they come from. My wife's sister doesn't have delusions of grandeur: she is simply too preoccupied with her art and her Tango dancing to take any notice of what's going on in the world. It's not only the Anglo-Saxons who have a fall coming - us Celts will also suffer.
When I discussed imminent the imminent danger to Britain, posed by Starmer's ill-conceived actions, my London friend replied, "It doesn't really seem to have broken into or affected the public consciousness over here though. I think people just assume that wars only happen in far way places and that they are protected... People are usually more concerned with cost of living etc or are busily consumed in other wokery such as gender ideology." Sad, but true.
There are still many realists in the UK as i recently discovered. I jokingly searched nuclear bunker manufacturers UK the other day. I was shocked to see there were many and they were providing for Joe Average not just the billionaires. What was more frightening - they were sold out and couldn't supply. They were basically shipping containers installedn underground. My local authority is funny granting planning permission for shipping containers above ground never mind as a nuclear bunker below ground. I've taken solace from the fact that i know my local authority wouldn't grant me planning permission for a nuclear bunker because it could impact on the setting of the listed building next door and it would upset all my neighbours who would object to planning because they would be envious that i had a potential escape room from nuclear armageddon.
That is just it Pym.
I have met a few of these people.
They exhibit some form of mental block and can sometimes reason with you when the truth is explained to them, but only up to a point.
Then their inhibition/ or conscience of what they have been told to believe in reels them back in..
Sad that they are the majority in society.
Look at the comments on the Ukraine page of the BBC website for example.
Of course opposing views are moderated away by our free thinking journalists.
If you boil it and boil it until the final underlying pillar enabling the delusion is left, I think we'll see it is that some countries can live off their past reputation, banking and infrastructure of international confiscation. Even countries that contribute more destruction than benefit can milk that for decades, but eventually, what they call "boundary conditions" in mathematics eventually diffuse into the core of the system and force people to face reality. The delay between cause and effect provides many ways to divert blame when in hindsight everyone agrees the delusions were "obvious ". Look how people refer to the 2008 train wreck as a surprise.
Thanks for the update Rob.
Well, our childish neocon leaders are well on their, unstoppable, way towards leading us into WW3.
On behalf of the nazi loving banderists and comedian.
You couldn't make it up?
A big coincidence too that this was just after the Aegis missile defence installation was completed in Poland-that the dementia patient relayed the NWO decision to unleash missiles into Russia.
Followed by their nwo lapdogs in the UK Starmer and Lammy putting targets on everyone's heads in the UK. Plus Europe for that matter.
Like yourself and Simplicus I don't think Russia will take the bait and attack a NATO country.
However as the escalations increase and the missiles are targeted further that could change dynamically.
Hopefully the World does not get to that stage.
But those in power still don't take Russian concerns seriously and refuse to back down.
Other than that the UAF is being slaughtered in its fortified leave behind areas.
Very similar to the Gerrmans being pushed back by the Russians in WW2 and Hitler leaving orders to create the 'festungs' or fortresses behind enemy lines.
The only difference is todays leaders have the knowledge today that it was a bad idea but still they pursue.
Also the West is using their MSM strike weapon to inform of the imaginary engaged N.Korean army.
With no proof of prisoners captured and paraded on TV that would be the first priority for the war mongers.
But no one questions anymore.
Tough times and respect to the RF for being the adult in the room.
Lets see what happens next week.
Many thanks for that Anthony. It is flattering indeed to be mentioned in the same sentence as Simplicius. I missed the Aegis defence system in Poland. When talking about places that could be attacked Maria Zakharova mentioned somewhere in Poland. Yes, I remember Hitler and the fortress Cities. The legacy media and politicians have been harping on about the North Koreans but not one photograph or film has been produced.
Anthony you have prompted a memory with Festung. Can you remember the incident in late 41 or early 42 where the German battle group was surrounded but successfully held off the Russians for months? This was the example which gave rise to Hitler's refusal to permit retreat. It must be age, i can't remember its name. Its not Korsun/ Cherkasy.
That was the Demyansk pocket Michael.
I believe there was actually another pocket linked to that one as well in the same area.
You are right the successful holding of this pocket in early 1942 gave Goring and Hitler the idea that they could hold the far larger Stalingrad pocket by airlifts.
I remember it now. Glantz and House cover it in the abridged version of Stalingrad. If the Luftwaffe had not been successful at Demyansk maybe the Stalingrad airlift would never have been attempted. I don't think there was a single day of the airlift when the Germans received the supplies they needed (or were promised) at Stalingrad.
Strange i can Like on my computer but not my tablet. I think you are right- i can't remember the daily tonnage needed, but it was never met. I still hold to theory that the failure to take Moscow in 1941 was the decisive factor, not Stalingrad. But when you look at the Russian spirit and tenacity I'm not convinced even the capture of Moscow would have proved conclusive.
Funny you should say that. I have believed for many years that Moscow was a turning point. I've read lots of books about it including: 'The Greatest Battle' by Andrew Nagorski. It was not just the fact that the Nazis failed to take Moscow: the German army was decisively beaten and therefore no longer invincible.
Yes i agree. There's a Scottish GP who writes about the Eastern Front. One of his patients was a nurse on the Eastern Front when the Russians broke into East Prussia she told him her story and he started writing about the war in the East afterwards: Pritt Buttar.
Yes Rob. Can't remember exact figures but I think the 6th army requested something like 600 tonnes a day. The most delivered on a single day was 170 tonnes I think. But average was much lower, e.g. 20 tonnes.
From history those battles on the eastern front in WW2 seem reminiscent of recent Ukrainian tactics where they seem to attack headlong into defence lines with poor logistics, numerical inferiorities and next to no air cover.
A blatant disregard for lives.
Strange tactics none the less. Perhaps it is a plea tactic to the West, like., 'look we are struggling please join us and start WW3.
That's right- thanks for that.
The Deep State are doing everything they can to hand Trump a poison chalice. Their recent gambit, the ATACMs and Storm Shadow salvos into Russia, are, according to Col Douglas McGregor, "The equivalent of giving a patient on life support (Ukraine) a haircut and a shave." Therefore, it will do nothing to alter the outcome of the war. And Putin's response showed that while the Deep State plays chequers, Putin plays chess. They gave him a grand opportunity to unveil his mach 10 missile, in a Ya-Boo-Sucks move that had the collective west pooing their collective pants. Every move they make just puts Putin in a stronger position for the final negotiation on Ukraine.
It looks as thought Trump Mark 2 will be a very different proposition to his first term's efforts. Live and learn. The MSM, and a lot of people on social media, are having a field day getting stuck into Musk. Trump is keeping him close. Trump knows his limitations in the area of strategic thinking, so has recruited a few smarties around himself, to try to prevent the Deep State from snookering him a second time. Pass the popcorn.
Thanks for that Joy. I watched the video where McGregor said that - good line. I wish Trump would employ him. This has played out well for Russia in terms of optics and hopefully as a warning - but not so well for those underneath the hazel tree!
Another great piece. For some reason i can never Like other posts. Some technical issue at my end. As an aside each Storm Shadow that Britain gives to Ukraine amounts to £100 to 20,000 British pensioners this winter. I don't know if I am being too left field in my thinking but it seems to me Britain and France are the main players with escalation just before Trump's inauguration. Both Trump and Putin may have an axe to grind against Britain and France. Consider the example of Iran and Israel where there has clearly been agreed face saving retaliatory strikes. Whats to stop Trump agreeing to a limited retaliatory strike on a British or French asset by Russia as payback from both? NATO cant or wont do anything without US backing. France has an independent nuclear option, Britain doesn't. Britain or a British asset therefore would be a tempting target for a limited strike. The problem with striking Poland or Romania is that they are too close to the contact line and can easily get physically involved and their response is unpredictable. Britain, however, might deemed controllable by her dependence on the US. The point im making is that if i were freebie Starmer i wouldn't be testing the Russians.
I meant to add Iran retaliated against the US in Iraq without wider consequences under Trump's watch so he can be pragmatic.
I think Putin will be mindful of how his actions will look to the 'global majority' - so I would be surprised if he attacked anywhere outside of Ukraine. But if Ukraine/NATO ignores the warning and launches everything it can at Moscow or a NPP - then - who knows?
I bought a suit recently from a well known Glasgow tailor in its Dundee branch. It was good quality material, well cut, nice look. Made in China. I only noticed this the other day. You should read Inglorious Empire. One story i remember is that we tried to kill the Indian steel industry. If you look at the legislation that was passed by Britain in the 1920-40s in India to give them the chimera of self rule its clearly the model for the Celtic periphery in the presence with devolved powers. The heavy industry destruction in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and the North of England was also carried out by we. Im also reading Asa Winstanley's book on Corbyn at the moment. Very interesting read.
Thanks Michael - you always provide some good stuff. I have read lots about what the British Empire did to the developing world. I haven't read Inglorious Empire though. I've read a few books on Corbyn but that's not one of them. It's so sad how it turned out after the promise it offered. But we were naive to believe that the hard left would be allowed to take over the Labour Party. You live and learn.
Thanks Rob. Another sterling effort. There is a lot happening and I think things might be ramping up even further so hang onto your hat.
James Kunstler is a really nice guy. We have emailed several times over the years and a couple of years ago he helped calm me down when I started panicking over Ukraine. I started looking at his work after reading "The Long Emergency" [excellent] and I enjoyed his world made by hand novels.
I'll look him up.
Kunstler can be funny with wry cynicism but if you are counting on his exaggerated prognostications being true, you could be disappointed. I like people like him or Tiabbi who have been open to all sides of politics.
He is one of the few people I look at frequently. Over the years I have found several really good sites. Some I like and then find either I or the writer change, and I stop looking at them. For an example, I really liked James Howard Kunstler for his ideas on the future, but he does seem to have become very political.
I should also have added that following the neo-liberal revolution, Britain and most of the west has little or no manufacturing capacity. Since the closure of the virgin steel works in Wales, Britain doesn't make the high quality steel needed for weapon system, can't manufacture its own textiles for the military, and imports more of its food, and other manufactured items. During the 1990s when I worked for a machinery manufacturer in Devon, 1 or two container loads of used manufacturing machinery [lathes and milling machines] were being sold to India and China. Now there are very few with the skills to make and repair the machines to make the goods for Britain. It is sad that what used to be the workshop of the world, now imports so much.
Yes - it is so sad to see our country declining so much in our lifetime.