Those behind an ailing Sleepy Joe Biden, have finally allowed Ukraine to launch long range ATACMs into Russia - just how deep into Russia is a matter of debate (see below). I think it would be fair to say that this issue, more than any other, has preoccupied the thoughts of commentators this week and has inspired more discussion between them than any other topic. This is understandable given the risks involved, so I will devote some space to it below. I should say that there has been no official confirmation of this from the Biden Administration at the time of writing. Biden himself has ignored reporters who have questioned him about the matter. He will also be sending ‘child killing’ anti personnel mines, just to be nasty.
This decision appears to have been made for party political reasons1 - even though there is a great deal of risk involved that could affect the whole planet. So, we are left to nervously ponder the nature of Russia’s response.
Zelensky, along with the US and the UK, were quick to act, launching ATACMs and Stormshadows into Kursk. In response, the Russians destroyed the Yuzmash Aerospace factory in Dnipro, using the ‘Oreshnik’, a hypersonic Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile System (IRBM) - which is impossible to stop. Putin gave a televised address on the 21st to explain the use of the ‘Oreshnik’ and to warn the West that Russia is entitled to strike at its military facilities with such weapons in response to Biden’s escalation (see below). You can read his speech at RT. Maria Zakharova even hinted at an attack in Poland.
In the Middle East, the numbing slaughter continues while the resistance is taking its toll on the IDF which has suffered heavy casualties during its unsuccessful incursions into South Lebanon. Hezbollah launches rocket attacks daily, and there are occasional strikes from Islamic State and Ansar Allah (the Houthis). Meanwhile, in Gaza, Hamas continues to destroy tanks, AFVs and bulldozers - along with Israeli infantry. In spite of this, the Israelis are apparently jubilant about the Trump victory and the prospects they think it will bring to annex Gaza and the West Bank and defeat Iran. Trump may be considered by some to be the next best thing to Superman at the moment but he can’t make Iran weak and he can’t make Israel strong. This is the reality both Trump and the Israelis must face. But I doubt that either will do so for a long time. The US vetoed yet another motion for a ceasefire in Gaza at the UN Security Council, underlining the impotence of this anachronistic organisation.
Meanwhile, back in Ukraine, the once great Z is rubbing his hands with glee, though he may have been miffed at not being invited to the G20 in Rio.
On the front lines in Ukraine the weather is getting colder and snow is on the ground in some places, as it is here in the Scottish Borders as I write. Everywhere, the Ukrainians are either fighting to the death or retreating, as the Russians increase their rate of advance.
Efforts to keep out the cold could be just as difficult domestically for Ukrainians as they are for their men in the trenches. The Russians have just pummeled the electric grid with the largest attack of the war (see below) and it is not clear whether or not it can now keep Ukrainians warm. The Russians, annoyed at Biden’s decision, could even apply the coup de gras to the grid - sending even more Ukrainians Westward.
In Europe, many of the usual suspects are celebrating Biden’s decision and in Germany, the Bundestag has the onerous responsibility of killing or saving democracy as it considers a motion to ban a political party which has 18% of the popular vote in Bavaria. The AfD is no fringe group. Western ‘democracy’ is failing everywhere.
Finally, the ICC has issued warrants for the arrests of Netanyahu and the recently sacked Yoav Gallant. They are charged with crimes against humanity and war crimes. But the US will probably place sanctions on the ICC in response.
US Gives Permission For Long Range Strikes (A Game of Chicken?)
Many of us suspected that this was going to happen sooner or later but Fox News has reported that Biden has given Z permission to strike deep inside Russia - which means that the American military will assist in these strikes. In an interview on the 19th November, U.S. Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs Nichols made it clear that "Biden authorized long-range strikes on Russia".2 On the same day, an attack was launched into Bryansk region using ATACMs missiles (see Ukrainian Terror attacks below) - which appears to confirm that permission has been granted and assistance rendered. An unsuccessful attack by Stormshadows was also made.
Putin has previously warned that such NATO involvement in the launch of these missiles would be an act of war and that Russia would then act appropriately.
This is what Putin said on September 12th 2024:
If such a decision is made, it will mean nothing less than the direct involvement of NATO countries, the United States, and European nations in the war in Ukraine. This direct involvement will significantly change the nature of the conflict. It will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European nations are at war with Russia. And if that is the case, given the fundamental change in the nature of this conflict, we will make decisions accordingly, based on the threats posed to us.
So, this recent attack using ATACMs on Russian soil appears to have crossed a red line which could oblige Putin to declare that the US and NATO are now at war with Russia.
This has the appearance of theatre to me, with Zelensky pleading over many months, or even years, to be allowed to use long range missiles while the likes of Annalena Baerbock and Jungle Josep have been cheering him on from the sidelines. The same sort of theatre was played out regarding Main Battle Tanks, HIMARS, Patriots, F-16s and other ‘game changers’. First we were told they will never be supplied but eventually and inevitably, these things ended up in Ukraine. ATACAMs have already been used of course, though not recently. In their last outing, they killed many civilians on a beach in Crimea with cluster munitions.
Fox links the US decision with the mythical 10,000 North Korean soldiers in Kursk3. The Americans appear to be arguing that if Russia can use North Korean troops in Kursk then they can use NATO personnel to help direct and launch the ATACMs into Russia. The legacy media, keen to frighten populations into compliance, is reporting that 100,000 North Korean troops are on their way to Ukraine and that the ATACMs will prevent this. Of course, this is all part of the drama.
ATACMs missiles have a range of 190 miles. The distance between Kiev and Moscow is 235 miles (378kms) as the crow flies. So if they are launched further east then they could hit Moscow - in theory. A report in Tass suggests that Biden has initially given permission for the ATACMs to be used only in the Kursk area but this could change (it probably will change). Another report suggested that the Ukrainians will be allowed to use only a 50km version of the ATACM. Yet another source claims that Ukraine possesses a number of 160km ATACMs.
According to this report, Britain and France have also given Z the green light to use their missiles (with the assistance of their operatives, of course). In the UK, which was quick to act, the tabloids are boasting about the recent Stormshadow attacks: the first by Great Britain on Russia since 1919.
The big question on everyone’s lips is how Russia will respond. Will Putin now consider that the US/NATO is at war with Russia and how will it respond to an ATACMs attack deep into its territory given the changes in it nuclear policy (see below)?
Responses - Russia
Kremlin Spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, warned that if confirmed this will represent a dramatic escalation in the conflict but was otherwise tight-lipped about the matter. State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin said that if the US helps direct ATACMs onto targets deep inside Russia the Kremlin will completely sever relations with America. He also explained that such weapons, which are already being used, will make no difference to the outcome of the conflict. Maria Zakharova had this to say:
Kiev’s use of long-range missiles to attack our territory will mean the direct participation of the United States and its satellites in hostilities against Russia. In this case, Russia’s response will be adequate and tangible.
At the UN, Russian representative, Vasily Nebenzya condemned Biden’s ‘suicidal permission’ and suggested that Britain and France have ‘warmongering in their genes’.
Following the attacks by ATACMs and Stormshadows, Putin himself gave the West a clear warning that:
We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow us to use their weapons against our facilities, and in the event of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond just as decisively and in a mirror image. I recommend that the ruling elites of those countries that have plans to use their military contingents against Russia also think about this seriously.
So, Putin is saying that he would be entitled to strike at foreign military facilities not that he will do so. This is still scary stuff. The attack on the Aerospace factory at Yuzmash (Dnepropetrovsk) using a nuclear capable and unstoppable ‘Oreshnik’ IRBM is meant to demonstrates that Russia is able to attack military facilities in Europe. The Oreshnik can reach Poland in 8 minutes and the UK in 19 minutes.
Responses - US
In the US, this has now become a party political issue. Republican, Marjorie Taylor Greene has suggested that this is against the wishes of the American people who voted for Trump in order to end the war. Elon Musk and Donald Trump Jnr. have also spoken out against the move, accusing Biden of trying to start World War 3 before Trump is inaugurated.
Republican Representative, Thomas Massie, had this to say:
By authorizing long range missiles to strike inside Russia, Biden is committing an unconstitutional act of war that endangers U.S. citizens...the reality is he's an emasculated puppet of a deep state.
Pro-Russian Responses
Nicolas Maduro said that ‘US imperialism has entered a phase of madness’ and Robert Fico condemned the move which, he said, will disrupt and delay peace process.
EU Responses
Josep Borrell, Annalena Baerbock and George’s Soros’ son, Alex, thought the announcement was ‘great news’ - according to Sputnik. But the Europeans are split on the issue with some countries for and some against. Good old Olaf Scholz is still refusing to supply Taurus missiles.
The Commentators Respond
Scott Ritter has argued that the Bryansk attack means that Russia is now at war with the US - as he explains here. This follows from Putin’s statement of September 12th. Ritter believes that the Russians must demonstrate they mean business by taking out the parliament in Kiev - but I doubt they will do that.
Larry Johnson, speaking with Daniel Davis, came out with an amazing piece of speculation: what if Biden (and the Deep State) wants to be in a war so that he (it) can declare a state of emergency and prevent Trump coming to power? Some will find such a notion incredible (or even mind boggling). Even in the unlikely event that this is true, I don’t believe Russia will play ball.
To place this development into perspective, it should be noted that the Ukrainians will receive only a limited number of ATACMs4, which they have already used to attack Crimea in the past, and that the Russians have been very successful at shooting them down so far. However, according to Dmitry Orlov, who provides some good analysis of this issue, many of these missiles could be old stock and may not be accurate or may not even work at all.
So why has Sleepy Joe decided to do this when it will not affect the outcome of the war? Alexander Mercouris believes that Biden (or his minders) has done so in order to make life difficult for Trump when he assumes power on the 20th January 2025. Alastair Crooke agrees. b from the Moon of Alabama writes about the ATACMs on the 18th November and points out that even though the missiles are no game changers, they will slow down the eviction of Ukrainians and foreigners from Kursk.
But what if the ATACMs are used to strike deep into Russia? Some time ago I reported that Russia is concerned that these ATACMs could be carrying a nuclear payload so there are risks involved in allowing them to be launched deep into Russia. My understanding of what Putin said in September and as part of the revised nuclear doctrine is that Russia would respond to a NATO attack in accordance with the threat posed. In the Bryansk case, a nuclear response is not warranted. However, if the use of ATACMs becomes more threatening that could change. But it does not mean that the Russians will necessarily use nuclear weapons in Ukraine - unless the Ukrainians attack Russia’s Strategic nuclear apparatus or a nuclear power plant - then all bets are off.
I would be surprised if Russia overreacts to this, especially since the incoming Trump administration is very much against Biden’s escalatory move. The West is clearly involved in a dangerous game of chicken but Russia will not act in an irrational manner.
The Russian use of the ‘Oreshnik’ (IRBM) System in Dnipro could be repeated elsewhere in Ukraine as an initial response, along with the final destruction of the electric grid - if that is possible. Hopefully, some grown ups in the West will stop this before it gets out of hand. Colonel McGregor believes that Russia could respond by taking Kiev.
It should be said that Scott Ritter (see above) provides a warning based on his studies that we would be foolish to ignore: the risk of nuclear war is much greater than most people think. But I remain optimistic.
Putin Approves New Nuclear Doctrine
I have reported on this new doctrine previously but now it has been approved. The timing of the announcement, following the apparent change in US’s policy on ATACMs in Ukraine, is probably not a coincidence. The key provisions are as follows:
Aggression from any non-nuclear state, but with the involvement or backing of a nuclear state, will be considered a joint attack on Russia. Additionally, a nuclear response is deemed possible if there is a critical threat to Russia’s sovereignty, even from conventional weapons, including an attack on Belarus as part of the Union State, or a massive launch of warplanes, cruise missiles, drones, or other aircraft crossing the Russian border.
The policy is aimed at:
…a potential adversary, which may encompass individual countries and military alliances (blocs, unions) that regard Russia as a potential enemy and possess nuclear and/or other weapons of mass destruction, or have substantial combat capabilities of general-purpose forces.
You can read more at Tass.
Medvedev made reference to the new doctrine when talking about Ukraine apparently receiving permission to strike at the heart of Russia with US assistance:
One thing is important - what the Head of the Russian State said on 12.09. And as a result, a new version of the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Sphere of Nuclear Deterrence was approved today. The use of the Alliance's missiles in this way can be qualified as an attack by the bloc's countries on Russia. In this case, the right arises to launch a retaliatory strike with weapons of mass destruction against Kiev and the main NATO facilities, wherever they are. And this is already WWIII.
But Russia’s response will be commensurate with the threat posed by the attack, as I understand the doctrine. Therefore, the recent attack on Bryansk with six ATACMs, will not demand any special response though an attack deep into Russia that threatens nuclear weapons facilities and/or a nuclear power plant could elicit a nuclear response. This is what I understand Pepe Escobar to be saying here.
Scholz Talks To Putin
After the drama of the above, this story has lost its shock value yet it is still an important development. On the 15th November, the German cabinet announced that Olaf Scholz spoke with Vladmir Putin on the telephone. They last spoke in December 2022 and this time the call lasted a full hour. Given the prominent role Germany has played in opposing Russia, this is a very important diplomatic development, representing an acceptance of the new reality that comes along with Donald J Trump.
A very angry Zelensky told reporters that:
Olaf’s call, in my opinion, is Pandora’s box. Now there may be other conversations, other calls. Just a lot of words. And this is exactly what Putin has wanted for a long time: it is crucial for him to weaken his isolation. Russia’s isolation. And to engage in negotiations, ordinary negotiations, that will lead to nothing.
I’m not sure where Zelensky is coming from here. The BRICS Summit demonstrated clearly that Putin is far from isolated. Surely Z must realise this. So, a phone call from Scholz is not likely to make any difference in terms of Putin’s isolation. But I am also puzzled by the distinction he makes between ‘negotiations’ and ‘ordinary negotiations’. For as long as negotiations are simply ‘ordinary’, Zelensky believes that they will lead to nothing. Maybe its a language thing or maybe Zelensky is getting paranoid that European support could collapse. Maybe he’s been pursuing too many lines. For whatever reason, Zelensky is not making very much sense.
According to the Kremlin (reported in Tass), Putin told Scholz that Russia has never refused to talk but will insist on the following conditions Putin outlined in June:
withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, Ukraine’s commitment to adopt a non-aligned status, denazification and demilitarization of the country, and the lifting of all Western sanctions.
This would now include withdrawal of Western troops from Kursk.
According to this report in Tass, Scholz expressed concern about the mythical North Korean troops in Kursk and the two leaders agreed to stay in touch. Putin told Scholz, who demanded Putin to take his troops out of Ukraine, that the current crisis is:
a direct result of NATO’s long-standing aggressive policy aimed at creating an anti-Russian bridgehead on Ukrainian territory, while ignoring our country’s interests in the field of security and trampling on the rights of Russian-speaking residents,
Sergei Lavrov had this to say about a German account of the conversation:
….I also read a statement that the German chancellor's office released after the conversation. It says that he condemned Russian aggression, it says that Germany will be with Ukraine for as long as necessary. That's what the Germans and other members of the European Union and NATO say publicly anyway. And when it is said, "We will be with Ukraine as long as necessary," the question arises, "Necessary for whom?" Certainly not the Ukrainian people at all.
‘Necessary’ used to mean ‘victory’ in this context but I doubt there are many left who retain such a belief.
Russian Soldiers
Battalion ‘Kryvonis’ - by Patrick Lancaster
In a recent video, frontline journalist, Patrick Lancaster (who has recently joined Substack), follows the training of some ex-Ukrainian troops now fighting for the Russians. Here you will obtain an idea of the type of warfare being fought in Ukraine but you will also hear the stories of individual soldiers who explain why they changed sides. The unit they are fighting for is named after one Maksym Kryvonis, a Cossack Colonel who rebelled against the occupying Polish-Lithuanian ‘Commonwealth’ in 1648. He became a hero for Russians and Russian/Ukrainians and the soldiers in this unit appear to know the story. Anyway - it appears that this man could have been of Scottish origin going by the name of ‘crooked nose’ - which is the English translation of the clan name ‘Cameron’. We in the UK had a Prime Minister who some say was crooked - and his name was Cameron.
I have been following ‘war correspondent’ Patrick Lancaster for over two years since the liberation of Mariupol. It is through him that I became acquainted with Ukrainian atrocities against civilians and the Nazi element within the military. You can watch Lancaster and the Kryvonis in action here.
Prayers Before Battle
Ukrainian Issues
End of an Era - Z Erased in Barcelona
The Barcelona authorities have decided to erase Zelensky images throughout the city. He is no longer in fashion.
Zelensky’s ‘Resilience Plan’
You can see the whole ‘resilience plan’ here. It includes the postponement of elections until after victory, the production of 3,000 cruise missiles, a ‘hero policy’ to involve veterans in public service and other garbage. It is definitely worthy of ridicule.
Umerov Intransigent
In response to an article in the NYT, Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s Defence Minister, has dismissed talk of conceding territories, insisting that Ukraine regain all the lost Oblasts, including Crimea. Talk of freezing the conflict and seceding land, which the NYT claims is being discussed in Kiev, is simply Russian propaganda, he claimed. This man is super deluded: even Zelensky himself has said that it would be too costly to take back Crimea militarily. This must be done through diplomacy, he said. Good luck with that. Crimeans have already expressed their view in their referendum in 2014 - overwhelmingly. I am sure they still want to part of a country that is rising rather than one that is slowly disappearing beneath the waves.
Zaluzhny’s Morale Boost - ‘Get Ready to Die’
Valery Zaluzhny, speaking from the safety of the UK, has told recruits in training that they have ‘almost no chance of survival’. You can read more at RT. Cheerful, Zaluzhny also announced the start of World War 3 - due to the presence of those mythical North Korean soldiers.
Rada MP Jailed For Talking of Peace
Yevhen Shevchenko (pictured) has been jailed for calling on Zelensky to negotiate with Putin. This is the shiny ‘democratic’ state that Westerners are helping to maintain - what a joke. Where in the West do you get jailed for talking about peace? In most places actually!
UK Running Out of Stormshadows
The UK has announced that stocks of the missile have reached levels below which the military is not prepared to go - according to RT. The Ukrainians have used some of these this week - all of which were shot down - but once they have wasted all they have in stock, there won’t be any replacements - so it appears. When questioned about the reluctance to provide Stormshadows, a spokesman repeated the mantra that the government ‘will stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes’. But people are beginning to challenge this truism - as long as it takes for what?
Ukraine Terrorist Attacks
15th/16th November
34 drones were shot down overnight: 20 over Kursk and 11 over Bryansk. Drones attacked Shebekino (Belgorod) damaging cars but no casualties were reported. However, near the village of Gruzscoe a man was ‘blown up’ by an explosive device while walking his dog in the forest belt. It is not clear whether the man and his dog survived. In Horlivka (DPR) a woman was injured by shelling while elsewhere four men were injured by drone drops.
16th/17th November
Overnight, an elderly man was killed in Kherson when shelling destroyed his house. Two drones were destroyed over Belgorod by air defences.
In Kursk region, the Editor of ‘The People’s Newspaper’, Yulia Kuznetsova (pictured), was killed when a drone hit her car. A police officer also sustained injuries during the attack.
17th/18th November
Overnight, according to Sputnik, 26 fixed wing drones were shot down over Bryansk. According the the War Chronicle, a total of 59 drones were shot down over Moscow, Tula, Kursk and Bryansk. According to the Majors, a man was killed in Belgorod region when a kamikaze drone hit his car while in Gorlovka (DPR) a man was injured by shelling.
18th/19th November
Overnight, a man was injured in Belgorod region when a drone hit his car while another hit a bus, injuring the driver. 12 drones were shot down over Rostov region but a man was injured by drone drop while driving along a motorway. 9 drones were destroyed over Bryansk. In Gorlovka (DPR) 11 civilians were injured by a drone drop on a mini bus. Later on the 19th November, 6 ATACMs were launched into Bryansk. Five were shot down and the other damaged. Falling fragments caused a fire that was quickly extinguished. Three HIMARS were also used as part of the attack. S-400 systems were employed as part of the defence. This was a commercial success for Russian armaments.
19th/20th November
5 drones directed at a civilian factory in Voronezh were shot down overnight. This did not prevent a fire breaking out but there were no casualties. Rostov, Bryansk, Kaluga and Belgorod also suffered drone attacks. Five drones were shot down over Smolensk, several over Novgorod and 48 over Bryansk. Shebekino in Belgorod suffered shelling and one civilian was injured - while in Bezymeno a drone landed in the courtyard of a private house wounding a civilian. In the DPR, three civilians were injured by drone drops and another two by cluster munitions. Later on the 20th November, 12 Stormshadows were launched into Kursk: they were all shot down.
21st/22nd November
In Belgorod region overnight, a woman was injured by a drone attack in the village of Krasnaya Niva while shelling of other villages caused two more casualties. In Gorlovka (DPR), a man was killed by shelling while another man was injured in the village of Makeyevka. The Russian MoD reported that two more Stormshadows were shot down on the 21st November but did not reveal where they were intercepted. Seven UAV’s were destroyed over Kaluga and eleven over Bryansk. In Gorlovka (DPR) 11 civilians were injured by cluster shelling and one by a mine.
The Sea War
16th/17th November
Four unmanned boats headed for Crimea were destroyed in the Black Sea overnight - another boat escaped in the direction of Odessa.
20th/21st November
According to South Front, several missiles (possibly Neptunes) targeted Sevastopol. At least one was shot down.
The Air War
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
15th/16th November
Russian drones/missiles attacked Odessa overnight. You can see some amazing footage here. Geraniums also hit targets in Kiev, Cherkasy and Zaporozhye, according to the Majors.
16th/17th November
According to this report, at least ten Kalibr missiles were launched in the direction Kirovograd. It appears that Iskanders and KH-101 have also been launched into Ukraine while two explosions have been reported in Kiev. Explosions were also heard in Odessa, Zaporozhye; Krivoy Rog; Dnepropetrovsk; Poltava; Kharkov; Kiev; Kirovograd and Nikolaev. Military airfields and the energy infrastructure were among the main targets. Geranium drones were also involved in an attack that lasted more than ten hours. One report claimed that 120 missiles and 90 Geranium drones were deployed while another claimed that Kinzhals were also used. This was the largest air attack the Russians have launched for some time. In consequence of missile attacks, the capacity of 7 out of 9 nuclear reactors has reduced by 40% to 90%, according to Bloomberg. There were power cuts in many cities and districts.
18th/19th November
Power outages were reported in Kiev and throughout Ukraine, according to Slavyangrad. It is also reported that a power facility was hit in Zaporozhye overnight. According to the Majors:
Explosions were also reported in Vyshgorod and BelayaTserkva, Kiev region, Cherkassy, Kirovograd and Sumy regions.
Power cuts of 3-5 hours are now normal in Ukraine.
19th/20th November
Overnight, loud explosions were heard in Shostka (Sumy), according to Slavyangrad. According to this report, a defence plant was hit. Electric detonators, detonating cords, non-electric initiation devices were probably destroyed. The Ozernoye airfield in Zhitomir was hit by drones which damaged a radar system, a SU-27 aircraft and airfield infrastructure. Zhulyany Airport in Kiev was also attacked by Geraniums. Kirovograd, Kharkiv, Poltava, Zaporozhye and Cherkassy regions were also attacked. Many Western embassies in Kiev were closed on the 20th in the belief that the Russians will target them.
20th/21st November
Overnight, Russian missiles targeted Dnepropetrovsk causing emergency power outages. You can see some footage here. This report from Slavyangrad claims that two Kinzhals were used.
Another report claims that the Aerospace factory, Yuzhmash, was hit by an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM)5: the first time the ‘Oreshnik’ weapons system has been used during the SMO. There has been much destruction. Simplicius provides some detail here. A Ukrainian source, claims that the nuclear capable Oreshnik missile was sent as a warning to Zelensky (and the West). Outside of Dnepropetrovsk, according to this report, cruise missiles were launched from Tu-95 bombers: Poltava, Kremenchug and Kiev were also targeted with missiles. Kremenchug was also hit, while emergency power outages have been implemented in Kiev, Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk. Finally, Krivoy Rog was hit by Kalibr missiles launched from the Black Sea.
21st/22nd November
Overnight, the Russians hit a plant in Shostka (Sumy region) which produces detonators and explosives
The Ground War
Russian MoD Reports
Weekly Reports (excludes Kursk)
w/e November 1st, 17,000 Casualties killed and wounded (record high): equipment losses 589.
w/e 8th November 14,330 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 444.
w/e 15th November 15, 570 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 620 (record high).
w/e 22nd November 13,860 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 535
Kursk
Casualties average 150-200 killed and wounded per day and 34,690 since the offensive began. Equipment losses have been around 3,020.
The Fronts
Front Line Cats
Kursk
On the morning of the 21st November, the Two Majors gave this report:
In the Kursk region, the 'North Troops Grouping' has completed the destruction of the enemy in the Olgovsky Forest. In the Sudzhansky district, the RFAF advanced with heavy fighting to the village of Daryino. At the same time the enemy conducted two counterattacks.
Kharkov
On the 22nd November, according to the Two Majors:
AFU counterattacks on the Liptsy section were repulsed, the enemy lost militants and armoured vehicles, but did not achieve success. Fighting continues in Volchansk near the area of multi-storey buildings.
Kupyansk
On the 20th November, Marat Khairullin reported that:
In the Kupyansk direction, Russian units reached the settlement of Glushkovka through the forest near Kolesnikovka and consolidated their positions in its southwestern part between the Oskol River and the railroad.
Chasiv Yar
Chasiv Yar - Detail
Fighting continues in the centre of Chasiv Yar where the Russians are fighting for the refractory plant.
Toretsk - Gorlovka
By the end of the week, the Russians were advancing in the Zabalka area near the Central Mine - according to Marat Khairullin, while advances towards the Avangard Stadium have also been made.
Pokrovsk - Kurakhovo
By the end of the week, the Russians were fighting in the centre of Kurakhovo as you can see here. On November 21st, Marat Khairullin predicted that Kurakhovo will soon fall and that the Russians will then try to encircle Velikaya Novosyolka. Outside of the city, the Russians have advanced on a broad front north of Antonovka while fierce fighting is taking place around Dalneye which was liberated on the 21st November.
In the Selydove Direction (top of map), Russian units have expanded control between the settlements of Pustynka and Yuryevka, advancing toward the former from the southeast. Assaults are being conducted along the ravine, putting pressure on the Ukrainian Armed Forces units in Pustynka from two sides at once - according Marat Khairullin. Near Pokrovsk, the Russians are fighting on the eastern outskirts of Petrovka, advancing along the railway line. Fierce fighting is also taking place at Beretsky just north of Kurakhovo.
Kuakhovo - Wider Picture
The above map provides a wider picture of Russian attacks around Kurakhovo highlighting the danger of encirclement faced by the Ukrainians.
Zaporozhye - Orekhov
In the Orekhov Direction, by the end of the week, the Russians continued their offensive towards MalayaTokmachka from Novopokrovka and from north of Rabotino towards Novodanilovka. In the area of Gulyaypol, Ukrainian positions on the northern outskirts of Dorozhnyanka have been cleared.
The Economic War
Medvedev On How The US Has Gained From War
According to Dmitry Medvedev, the Ukraine conflict has been beneficial for the US outside of the MIC (which has gained a great deal) because it has allowed an increase in revenue of $90 billions from goods supplied to the EU. Goods such as oil, gas and fertilizer, previously purchased from Russia, are now being purchased from the US.
Underwater Cable Attacked?
This report claims that an underwater telecommunications cable linking Finland with Germany was damaged in two places - C-Lion-1 and Nordbolt (see map above). The former location is close to the Nord Stream Pipelines. It is not known at this stage whether sabotage was involved. NATO exercises were recently conducted in the area. Whether there is a connection or not is anyone’s guess. You can see a report from Rybar here. It seems that the Chinese have come under suspicion.
Russian Gas to Austria Cut Off
An arbitration court recently awarded Austrian energy company OMV 230 millions Euros in damages which it will offset against payments for gas to Gazprom. In other words, Austria stopped paying for its gas - so Gazprom cut it off. I’m not sure what the damages were awarded to compensate for but Austria had no right to stop payments for their gas - these issues are separate. Austrian Environment Minister, Leonore Gewessler, appeared pleased that Austria can no longer be blackmailed. You can read more at Sputnik.
End Suicidal Sanctions - Orban
The ills of the Hungarian economy are inevitably the result of the war and its consequences. This is both the war itself and the wrong response to it, which we call sanctions. They are wrong. The EU acted unwisely. We did not impose them, so here I do not blame myself, but the people in Brussels. Sanctions led to an increase in energy prices, which led to inflation. And if we cannot put an end to this, then no matter what measures we take, the spirit, the vitality, the hope, the confidence, the planning for the future will not return.
CASE Optimistic On Russian Economy
The Centre for Analysis and Strategies in Europe - a EU based think tank - has given the Russian economy a clean bill of health, for the next 5 years at least. Their study concluded that:
Russia has been able to withstand the blow caused by the Western sanctions due to a combination of factors, including its well-developed market economy, its indispensable position as a supplier of primary commodities to the global market, highly professional responses by its government officials, and the West’s inability to isolate Russia on the international stage.
For the first time in many years - and in spite of the sanctions - the EU now obtains more gas from Russia than anywhere else (i.e. 23.7%) - according to Sputnik.
Russia Cuts Uranium Exports to US
The Russian government has cut exports of enriched uranium to the US on a temporary basis. This is a tit for tat response to Biden’s banning of Russian uranium imports until 2040. Although he banned the imports, he did allow exceptions - when it suited the US. Now the Russians have ‘disallowed’ these exceptions so the US could have a uranium supply problem.
World Politics
G20 Summit 18th/19th Nov
The G20 summit was held in Rio de Janeiro this week. Sergei Lavrov led a Russian delegation. In a motion demanding the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination and their own state, the vote was overwhelmingly and embarrassingly (for the US) in favour - as you can see above. The Summit refused to condemn Russia or its war with Ukraine, according to this source.
Brazilian President, Lula da Silva resisted efforts by Western countries to hijack the conference with their own Russophobic and Woke Agenda to focus on the establishment of a global alliance against hunger and poverty. South Africa will now take the Presidency of the G20 and will focus on food security, economic growth and Artificial Intelligence. The Summit discussed Ukraine only briefly calling for peace but not condemning Russia - according to RT.
Will Germany Ban Democracy?
A motion to ban the Alternative Party for Germany Party (AfD) has been submitted to the German parliament. There are 733 seats in the Bundestag and the motion needs only a simple majority to pass. The AfD is the second largest party in Bavaria receiving support from roughly 18% of the people. I doubt that those who voted for the party will take the ban lying down. You can read more at Zero Hedge. In France, Macron is trying to get rid of Marine Le Pen through dubious legal action - also according to the Hedge. She is being charged under a law that did not exist when the alleged ‘offence’ was committed.
Wise Westerners - Tulsi
Tulsi Gabbard will be the National Intelligence Director elect and is expressing home truths that will horrify Democrats. She called Zelensky’s government ‘authoritarian’:
Zelensky jailed his political opponents, he banned their entire political party. He closed all media that were not controlled by him and his government. No freedom of speech, no political opposition. No religious freedom in the country. He closed the second largest Christian church in the country, and for what? Under the guise of democracy and freedom?
I’ve been following Tulsi for years. She has talked the talk, now let’s see if she can walk the walk. The jury is out.
Wise Westerners - RFK Jnr
A US president can play a very important role, by reassuring Russia that we're not gonna consider them an enemy anymore and that we wanna be friends.
Now show us what you can do against big pharma.
The emerging Multi-Polar World
Indonesia Becomes ‘Partner State’
Indonesia has joined BRICS as a ‘partner state’. Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous country - 280 millions, I think. It is behind fellow BRICS countries, India and China and just below the US which is in third place.
This really has been an eventful week and I have struggled and failed to keep this Update below 30 minutes in spite of having to ditch four stories. I didn’t want to leave anything else out. Many thanks for your views, it seems that more than 3,000 people view the Busker every week - if my interpretation of Substack’s statistics is correct. And thanks for your subscriptions, shares, restacks, likes and comments. Have a good week - best Rob.
Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.
It seems that the normal rules of etiquette between the two parties are dissolving.
Even though earlier on the 19th November, Matthew Miller announced that there has been no change to the Administration’s policy; that Ukraine has not been given permission to launch ATACMs deep into Russia.
As yet, I have seen no convincing evidence that these troops exist - though I have to concede that they may do.
The missile separates into 6 warheads before hitting the ground.
Thank you
It is amazing that a country with delusions of grandeur has allowed its missiles [the same missiles it is short of for its own defence] to be used to officially start WW3. Does it not realize that for many days or weeks it has to import gas by pipeline from Norway and electricity by cable from Europe to function? Has it not learned from the German experience of a destroyed economy after the West blew up the Nordstream pipelines? Why is it retaining two white elephant aircraft carriers when it does not have the crew, aircraft, money, resources or support ships to help to achieve what purpose, and in war games they are quickly lost?
Ian Welsh has several good ideas of Russia's goals and how the Conflict in Ukraine might end.
"Maybe he’s been pursuing too many lines."
Don't you mean using too many lines?