This week, the gaze of many commentators has shifted from Lebanon to Syria where Western backed rebel groups have captured parts of the Aleppo, Idlib and Hama provinces. But the Syrian army, reinforced by ground forces and Russian aviation is fighting back. Alastair Crooke provides some exposition and analysis here.1 US artillery is directly involved in supporting the rebels along with Ukrainian mercenaries who had been fighting for Israel in Gaza. It is possible (likely!) that the rebel forces have Erdogan’s backing, though he is denying any involvement. Alexander Mercouris does a good job of explaining the complicated Syrian situation here. By the end of the week, the rebels had entered Hama as the Syrian army retreated to avoid civilian deaths.
As expected, the Israelis are constantly breaking the ceasefire they asked for in Lebanon, forcing Hezbollah to retaliate. Their killing of innocents in Gaza continues as another tented refugee camp is bombed causing horrific casualties.
But the gaze shifted temporarily on December 3rd when Yoon Suk Yeol, President of South Korea, declared martial law after threats to impeach this extremely unpopular ruler. 190 members out of 300 parliamentarians managed to meet to overturn the ruling unanimously. Some believe that a Military Coup was attempted. But impeachment proceedings against the sitting President are now being considered and soldiers warned that if they continue to impose martial law they will be tried for treason. The attempted coup of the President against the Democrat majority has therefore failed.
In the background to all this, the ‘colour revolution’ in Georgia continues. Patrick Lancaster provides some ‘eye witness’ reports here.
On the battlefronts, Ukraine continues to take huge casualties though these have reduced slightly in recent weeks - possibly due to poor killing weather. The most likely location for a Ukrainian collapse is at Kurakhovo in Donetsk. In Kursk, Ukrainians have been told to hold on and wait for Trump - though I have no idea what such an instruction will achieve apart from boosting morale. The continued occupation of small sections of Kursk will not impress Trump in any way - as far as I can tell. The Russians have already made it clear that they will not bargain over Russian land and will insist on the evacuation of Kursk as a prerequisite for negotiations.
There have been no reports of strikes by ATACMs or Stormshadows this week - so maybe the Oreshnik warning is sinking in. But the Russians have also destroyed many of these missiles and their launchers this week - so there may be a shortage.
Finally, the mutual defence deal between Russia and North Korea came into force on December 4th. This means that if either is attacked the other will come to its aid militarily. You can read more at Tass.
US - Russia Talk
The ABC TV Channel is reporting that General Charles Brown, the new Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff spoke with his counterpart, General Valery Gerasimov. They discussed Ukraine, the avoidance of escalation and other global topics. Gerasimov made the call apparently - about a week ago. I wonder if that could account for the absence of ATACMs this week?
Nebenzya - UN Security Council
Today we have seen once again that there are no crimes that the United States is not prepared to silence for the sake of profit and gain: whether it is the deaths of 45,000 Palestinian civilians or the terrorist attack on peaceful Syrian cities by armed thugs. After your words, no one today has any illusions that Washington will ever be ready to fight international terrorism honestly and sincerely. And frankly speaking, we are glad that you and I are on different sides of the barricades, because such concepts as honesty, justice and conscience are not the hallmark of US foreign policy.
On the 4th December, Vasily Nebenzya, who doesn’t mince his words, gave his usual full frontal onslaught on the Americans.
Washington has been trying to preserve its de-facto occupation of Syria’s northeastern regions by all means
And
The equally destructive factor is Washington's aspiration to preserve its de facto occupation of the oil, gas and agricultural resource-rich areas in north-eastern Syria. The United States and its allies are using every opportunity to sow chaos in the country, applying sanctions to asphyxiate the country’s economy and supporting Idlib-based terrorists and the extremist underground in the SAR [Syrian Arab Republic]
He urged Washington to support the legitimate Syrian government and condemn the terrorists - according to Tass.
Belousov Meets Kim Jong-Un
At their meeting, Kim said that the use of long range missiles assisted by NATO personnel means that they are part of the conflict, according to Tass. Kim said that North Korea will always stand with Russia and the agreement they signed will oblige it to do so.
Kellogg’s Deal
Trump’s Special Representative to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has come up with a plan to end the conflict. According to to CNN:
The frontlines would be frozen by a ceasefire and a demilitarised zone imposed, For agreeing to this, Russia would get limited sanctions relief, and full relief only when a peace deal is signed that is to Ukraine’s liking. A levy on Russian energy exports would pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Ukraine would not be asked to give up on reclaiming occupied territory but would agree to pursue it through diplomacy alone.
It is accepted that the diplomacy cannot be pursued until Putin leaves office.
This man remains in the ‘cloud cuckoo land’ of arrogant US exceptionalism, still believing that the US or NATO will be allowed to have a say in what Russia regards as its territory. Russia will not be interested in dancing to this sort of tune for the sake of limited sanctions relief (which may not suit it anyway)2 and would be more inclined to seek compensation from Ukraine rather than the other way around. Russia will not be interested in a ceasefire or a demilitarised zone (which could involve NATO troops) and wants a long term security plan which embraces the whole of Europe. Kellogg’s plan doesn’t appear to involve any long term plan for security. Furthermore, Russia will, of course, insist on the denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine.
Recently, I saw an interview with a Ukrainian soldier who said that the people in the five oblasts currently under Russian control are no longer Ukrainians psychologically (sorry, lost the link). I think this is true but they are also politically aligned with the Russian Federation as their votes have shown. So there is no point in Ukraine continuing to hope for the return of these oblasts. Russia would probably prefer an agreement which involves Ukrainian renouncement of any future claim to these territories along with a renouncement of any plans to join NATO. I think it is also possible that Russia will want referendums to be carried out in oblasts such as Kharkov and Odessa. The people in these oblasts may even demand referenda.
Kellogg has been promoting this plan for some time.
Ryabkov’s Rejoinder
Amid much talk from the US of ‘freezing the conflict’ or Ukraine being invited to join NATO, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Ryabkov has made it clear that nothing will prevent the Russians from achieving their objectives:
The impression is that the decision-makers in the White House have learned nothing from life, and they are using every opportunity that remains, even for the 'lame ducks,' to harm us and prevent us from solving the tasks facing the special operation. But they will not succeed.
Lavrov - Carlson
Tucker Carlson interviewed Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on December 5th. Lavrov didn’t tell Carlson much that hasn’t been reported on the Update over the past months but some of it will be news to many Western viewers. They spoke about the Ukraine conflict and Russia’s desire for a peaceful settlement that takes account of its security concerns and the rights of Russian speaking people in Ukraine. They also talked about the Oreshnik and the warning it is meant to convey to the West. Lavrov cleared one thing up: Russia does not consider itself to be officially at war with the US. You can read a transcript of the interview at Sputnik.
Russia Trains 300,000
The Russian MoD has managed to train 300,000 new recruits in 2024 so far. All have signed contracts with the MoD and have received training in weaponry, engineering, medicine and special training. These reserve units will help Russia replace battlefield losses and build up a reserve force just in case.
Carry On ATACMS - Z
According to a Ukrainian source, Zelensky considers that Russia’s Oreshnik and other threats are not critical for Ukraine so has ordered the attacks on Russian soil with ATACMS and Stormshadows to continue. But there have been no such attacks this week.
Ukraine Military Reshuffle
Mykhailo Drapatiy (Drapatoy) has been appointed new Ground Commander in Ukraine while Oleg Apostol has been appointed Deputy Commander in Chief of the armed forces. Syrsky will remain in post. According to the Islander, Drapatov is wanted by the Russians for involvement in the murder of 150 civilians in the LPR and DPR. He was also responsible for violently putting down protests against the Western backed Maidan Coup.
West is Failing Us - Z
In an interview, the once great Z complained that the West has equipped only 2.5 brigades with modern equipment instead of the promised 10 brigades. ‘Do you want them to die without your weapons?’, he asked. A cynic might say that they will die with or without Western weapons. Addressing those who have been calling for the mobilisation age to be lowered to 18, he said that this would be pointless unless the West can provide them with equipment.
Zelensky is now making a concession to reality by admitting that Ukraine cannot gain back its lost territories militarily. But then he spoils it all with talk about negotiating from a position of strength by being allowed into NATO. Being part of NATO will protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression, he said. Those who have been reading this Update for a while will know that the prospect of Ukraine’s NATO membership was one of the main reasons the Russians launched the SMO - so it’s not going to happen. I have no idea why Zelensky is unable to grasp this fundamental fact.
Z also pointed to Putin’s use of the mythical North Korean soldiers as ‘cannon fodder’ so that he avoids the wrath of his own people for high Russian losses. I have yet to see any evidence of the North Korean dead and wounded that Z refers to in this interview.
According to this report, only 16% of Ukrainians support Zelensky’s re-election.
Yermak Visits Trump Team
Zelensky’s closest aid, Andrey Yermak visited the Trump team in Washington for talks - according to the NYT. This Ukrainian source claims that Yermak was disappointed that the team was not willing to discuss Zelensky’s ‘Victory plan’ and that it appeared to insist that Ukraine must give up territory for peace. Oh dear.
Victoria Spartz - Mobilise The Kids
Republican congresswoman, Spartz, who was born in Ukraine, is calling for Zelensky to mobilise 18 year olds - so they can die for her former homeland, claiming that the US would do the same in order to preserve its freedoms. I think she is probably ignorant rather than stupid. If there were some chance that Ukraine could win then she may have a point - but Ukraine cannot win. She is also critical of the once great Z for not supporting his military due to a botched mobilisation and for failing to tackle corruption.
Goncharenko - Let’s Make a Bomb
NATO won't protect us. We should spit on everything and everyone and make a nuclear bomb. We'll figure it out from here.
The Ukrainian MP from Odessa, who has responsibility for displaced persons, is clearly angry with the West. Nuclear weapons will protect us, he said. No, Oleksiy, lad, nuclear weapons will make you a target.
Shitty Shells
I have seen a number of reports highlighting the poor quality of munitions being sent to Ukraine, much of which is way past its ‘use by date’. This short video illustrates the problem. According to a report, 82mm and 120mm mortar shells either do not fire at all or detonate during firing. 100,000 mortar shells have been recalled by a Ukrainian manufacturer due to such problems.
Ukrainian Inflation
Since the start of the SMO inflation has risen by 44.2%. Electricity costs have increased by 178%; food products by 50.8%; tobacco by 62.5% and medicines by 45.2%.
Hence the Ukrainian Exodus
Another 5 million refugees will leave Ukraine because of problems with electricity and heating this winter, according to The Times.
Ukraine Terrorist Attacks
29th/30th November
Belgorod’s governor reported that two civilians were injured by drone attack overnight while one civilians was injured by shelling in Gorlovka (DPR) Eight drones were shot down over Belgorod.
30th November/1st December
Overnight, an eleven year old child was killed by a drone attack on a residential building in Bryansk. A total of 29 Ukrainian drones were shot down in the Bryansk, Kaluga, Smolensk and Kursk regions.
1st/2nd December
Overnight, six aircraft type drones were shot down over Bryansk while a drone drop injured the driver of a car in Belgorod. Eight drones were destroyed over Kursk and one over Belgorod.
2nd/3rd December
In the village of Kolotilovka (Belgorod region) a man was injured when a drone attacked his car.
3rd/4th December
Overnight, 3 drones were shot down over Bryansk and 12 over Taganrog (Rostov) according to the Two Majors. In Belgorod, a man was injured when a drone hit an apartment block while in the village of Ustinka a man was injured by a drone attack on his house. In the DPR, a man was killed by a drone drop while driving along the Donetsk-Mariupol Motorway while a POM-2 anti-personnel mine killed a woman in the village of Komsomolets. Finally, in Gorlovka, a woman was injured by unexploded cluster submunitions. The Russian MoD reports that overnight 24 drones were shot down/disabled above Russian territory.
4th/5th December
Nine drones were shot down above Bryansk region overnight while in Belgorod drones caused some fires and injured three civilians. In Gorlovka (DPR) one man was wounded by 155mm cluster munitions.
5th/6th December
33 drones were shot down over Russian territory at night. Several were destroyed over Voronezh. In Shebekino (Belgorod) four people were injured by shelling while drones attacked cars and houses. No further casualties were reported.
The Sea War
29th/30th November
Overnight, three drones were shot down over the Black Sea.
1st/2nd December
Two drones were shot down at night over Crimea.
5th/6th December
12 unmanned boats were sent towards Crimea overnight. Seven were destroyed while the others retreated. Two drones were destroyed over Cape Tarkhankut (Crimea).
The Air War (Map)
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
30th November/1st December
Overnight, the Russians destroyed a trainload of ATACMs and Stormshadows arriving at the port of Chernomorsk (south of Odessa) from Romania. This may account for the absence of attacks by such missiles this week.
Ukrainian air defences were active in Kiev, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkassy, Zhitomir regions.
Russian missile/drones strikes were recorded in the Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhie and Mykolaiv regions, as well as in the border Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson regions.
1st/2nd December
More than 50 Geraniums took to the skies overnight, hitting targets in Vinnytsia, Kiev and Sumy.
2nd/3rd December
Overnight, Russian drones hit substations in Ternopol (110kV) and Rovno (330kV) regions and the military airfield at Ozernoye (Zhytomyr) causing damage to airplanes and infrastructure.
3rd/4th December
According to the Russian MoD, Ukrainian airfields and ammunition depots have been relentlessly pummeled over the past 24 hours.
4th/5th December
Overnight, according to the Two Majors:
Enemy resources reported at night about strikes on Shostki in the Sumy region, Mirgorod in the Poltava region, Krasnograd in the Kharkov region, Pokrov in the Dnepropetrovsk region, a number of localities in the Cherkassy region, Zhitomir and the Odessa region. Geranium UAVs and FABs with UMPC were operating. In the morning, reports of explosions in Kiev began to arrive.
The airfield at Uman (Cherkasy) was hit, destroying a MiG-29 fighter and damaging an Su-27.
5th/6th December
Overnight, Geraniums were launched at Kiev, Mirgorod (Poltava), Glukhov (Sumy) and Chuguyev (Kharkov) according to the Two Majors.
The Ground War
Russian MoD Reports (excludes Kursk)
w/e 15th November 15, 570 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 620 (record high).
w/e 22nd November 13,860 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 535
w/e 29th November 12,620 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 413
w/e 6th December 13,160 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 432
The Fronts
Front Line Cats
Kursk
On December 2nd, according to Yury Podolyaka:
Foggy weather does not allow to conduct major operations. Meanwhile, both sides are trying to improve their tactical positions, especially in and around Novoivanovka.
On December 5th, the Russians repelled Ukrainian counter-attacks towards Novoivanovka and Daryino. By the 6th December, in the Sudzhansky district, the Russians were attacking in the forests around Malaya Loknya and were pounding Martynovka with artillery.
Kharkov
On December 6th, it was reported that the Russians were advancing in Volchansk.
North of Kupyansk
On December 2nd, according to Yury Podolyaka:
The Russian army has created a second bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskol River. It's located south of Dvurechnoye on a prevailing height. Uniting the two bridgeheads into a larger one will enable the Russian army to conduct serious operations on the western bank of the Oskol River. To achieve this, Russian troops are reportedly storming Dvurechnoye today.
Kupyansk
On the 5th December, according to the War Chronicle:
A change in the line of contact in the area of Zeleny Gay up to 4 km and [in] Kopanki, an advance on the outskirts of Kupyansk Lozova is recorded. East of Kruglyakovka, the advance is up to 1 km. The enemy is conducting counterattacks near Novomylsk, depriving us of a bridgehead.
Chasiv Yar
Fighting continues in the centre of Chasiv Yar where the Russians have broken through Ukrainian defences in the Severny District and have strengthened their left flank south of ‘Novy’ district
Toretsk
On December 2nd, according to Yury Podolyaka:
Russian troops gradually advance south of Toretskaya mine, fighting in the southern part of Toretsk (Zabalka district) is ongoing.
On December 4th, the Russians captured the Tsentralnaya mine, which was a key Ukrainian stronghold in this area. This is a significant success that could potentially accelerate the full capture of Toretsk.
Selidove Detail
Selidove Pokrovsk
On December 2nd, according to Yury Podolyaka:
Russian troops are advancing towards the Pokrovsk-Kurakhovo highway along a wide front. Less than three kilometers is left to go. Having knocked the Ukrainian army out of Pushkino, Russian troops attacked further northwest (towards Shevchenko and Novopustynka).
By the 4th December, the Russian army had physically cut the Pokrovsk-Kurakhovo road south of Shevchenko. This will provide a convenient bridgehead for further offensive towards Pokrovsk. By the 5th December, the village of Zhyoltoye had been liberated and the Russians were advancing towards Dachenskoye. Clashes were also taking place on the outskirts of Shevchenko.
Kurakhovo - Detail
Kurakhavo
On December 2nd, according to Yury Podolyaka:
Russian troops have captured the greater part of Starye Terny and reached the dam of the Kurakhovskoye reservoir. From here, they can strike the rear of the Ukrainian grouping in Kurakhovo, while other Russian units advance inside the town itself and to its south (near the villages of Sukhiye Yaly and Konstantinopolskoye).
By December 4th, Russian troops had crossed the dam of the Kurakhovskoye reservoir from Starye Terny. Once they secure a foothold in the southern part of the dam, Kurakhovo will fall to the Russian army. The Ukrainians will probably be late in leaving the city - as they were at Uhledar. By the end of the week, the Russians had completely cleared the village of Romanovka, south of Kurakhovo and were assaulting Uspenovka.
South of Kurakhovo
On December 2nd, according to Yury Podolyaka:
Fighting continues northeast and west of Bolshaya Novoselka [aka Velyka Novoselka]. Although Russian troops have entered this village, their main focus is not on taking it but on cutting the Bolshaya Novoselka - Bogatyr highway to its north, near Novy Komar. Reportedly, this goal has been achieved today.
The Russians captured Novy Komar on the 4th December but this was taken back in a Ukrainian counter-attack.
Velyka (or Bolshaya) Novoselka - Detail
Uhledar - Vremevsky
On the 5th December, according to the War Chronicle:
Vremevsky direction. Attack aircraft of the 37th Guards. brigades took under their control the village of Blagodatnoye south of Velyka Novosilka - on the remains of the roof of the state farm "October" the Russian flag was installed. Ours continue the offensive from the village to the northeast with the support of the 5th Tank Brigade.
The Economic War
Russia Calling
Vladimir Putin, speaking at the ninth annual ‘Russia Calling’ Investment Forum, had this to say about the Russian economy:
Taking into account all the difficulties, investments in fixed capital of Russian business have been growing for the third year in a row, despite all the problems that we are experiencing or that they are trying to create for us from the outside.
Putin also advised that Russian GDP grew by 3.6% last year but this year it has reached 4.1% in ten months - with most of the growth in the manufacturing sector. You can read more at Sputnik.
While most European countries have unemployment around 7%, Russia’s unemployment rate is only 2.3%.
China Fights Back
According to Slavyangrad:
China has banned shipments to the US of several minerals and metals used in semiconductor manufacturing and military applications, in a rapid retaliation by Beijing against new export controls from Washington. China’s commerce ministry on Tuesday said it would prohibit the export to the US of dual-use items that include gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials, and would impose stricter controls related to graphite.
China produces 98% of the world’s gallium which is used in radar systems and 60% of the world’s germanium. Shipments of both minerals have been banned as you can read here.
So, China made this decision in response to US threats as Spokesman He Yadong explains in Global Times.
If Trump persists with his trade war, we can expect banned shipments of a wider range of products the US needs.
US Goal Achieved Through Ukraine Conflict
Some say that the US has used the conflict in Ukraine to weaken its European partners and strengthen itself. If that is the case, they have pretty much succeeded.
World Politics
Scholz in Kiev
Good old Olaf came to Kiev in an unannounced visit bearing gifts totaling $684 millions in arms deliveries - but Taurus missiles were not included. He last came to the capital 2.5 years ago. This time, he visited wounded soldiers alongside the once great Z. He promised Zelensky some air defence units and had a message for Putin:
I am making this very clear to Putin here in Kiev today. We have the strength to endure and we will stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes.
As long as it takes for what Olaf? For the last Ukrainian man to die? For Russia to invade the whole country? For the Electric grid to collapse? I doubt Putin will be impressed because he knows that even with support Ukraine does not have the strength to endure. Russia will always be stronger. The photo below is probably a fake - but it is funny.
But the Military Industrial Complex, represented by Rheinmetall AG in Germany, is keen for the conflict to continue as part of a $400 billions funding project designed to modernise the Bundeswehr - according to a Ukrainian source. Where the money will come from is anyone’s guess.
Barnier Loses No Confidence Vote
The French parliament with a majority of 331 votes to 288 has voted to sack a Prime Minister for the first time in half a century. But since Macron is unlikely to provide a Prime Minister who will satisfy the dissenters, French government will remain something to be hoped for.
Crazy Westerners - Annalena
On her recent visit to China, Germany’s Green Foreign Minister, Baerbock took the opportunity as a guest to reprimand her hosts for supplying drones and spare parts to Russia. This will have negative consequences for China, she said, which may suffer Western sanctions for this transgression. I wonder if she has fully grasped the concept of rudeness? Chinese officials at the press conference where she spoke, refused to issue a joint final press release and literally evicted her and German journalists from the room - as you can see here.
The following statement shows that Baerbock shares the delusions of most Western leaders:
There are various elements of a peace settlement: security guarantees, NATO membership, an international presence to enforce the ceasefire, troop withdrawal, territorial issues, reconstruction, sanctions settlement. Ukraine itself decides with what goals it will sit down at the negotiating table.
Poor Annalena is still peddling the myth that Ukrainians decide anything for themselves and shows her ignorance of Russia’s red lines - Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO.
Crazy Westerners - Merilo
Estonian Major General Andrus Merilo, appears to be suffering from an acute case of paranoia in which he fears that a Russian invasion would force the population to evacuate to Finland leaving destroyed cities behind so they cannot be useful to the Russians:
We must be prepared to evacuate people outside the danger zone, and in the worst case, the danger zone covers all of Estonia. If necessary, the Estonian army itself will begin to destroy Estonian cities. For example, in Narva, we must be prepared for the city infrastructure and streets to become impassable to the enemy. Finland would be the most logical country to escape to.
I think he’s stuck in World War 2 during the German ‘scorched earth’ retreat from Russia.
I wonder what the Fins think of this.
Crazy Westerners - Rutte
According to the NY Times, NATO's secretary general has suggested that Ukraine postpone any peace talks with the Russian Federation until Western allies can provide enough military aid to help Kiev succeed on the battlefield and strengthen its position for negotiations. When will that be, I wonder.
Crazy Westerners - The Merz Ultimatum
Friedrich Merz, who is a candidate for German Chancellor to replace Olaf, said that once he is in office, he will give Putin an ultimatum that if he does not stop bombing Ukrainian civilians within 24 hours, he will allow Ukraine to use the Taurus missiles to attack Russia. Western politicians always seem to think that threats rather than negotiations can secure the outcomes they desire. Oh and they also feel obliged to tell propagandistic lies - such as Russia bombing civilians when it is Ukrainians who do this. Later, he denied that he had threatened Putin, which may be true: after all, saying that you will threaten someone is not the same as threatening them - or is it?
Saudis May Abandon US Defence Treaty
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is signaling that he is losing patience with Israel’s ‘bloodthirsty belligerence’ and refusal to accept a Palestinian State. According to the Islander:
This shift isn’t just about Palestine; it’s about Riyadh finding its place in the emerging multipolar world. As BRICS expands and the Global Majority asserts itself, Saudi Arabia is aligning with the forces of sovereignty and resistance to imperial hegemony.
Some countries are straddling the old world and the new, nervous about taking the plunge, which is not without risk. Trump’s belligerent version of diplomacy is probably not helping but I share Islander’s optimism: in the end both Saudi Arabia and Turkiye will go with BRICS.
Protests
London
150,000 people demonstrated in London against the Israeli genocide in Gaza and demanded that all arms sales to Israel be stopped.
Georgia
The ‘protests’ in Tblisi would more accurately be described as riots. The sitting President of the country refuses to accept the recent election result and refuses to resign even though her term of office has expired. Some rioters launched fireworks into the parliament building causing fires within while others threw Molotov cocktails at the police who are protecting the building, using water cannon to disperse the rioters. The protests continue as I write.
Ortega - Allows Russia to Build Base In Nicaragua
President Daniel Ortega has signed a decree allowing Russia to construct a military base in Nicaragua - which is 3,000 kms from Washington. Cuba mark 2?
The Long Telegram - George Kennan
The Long Telegram was written by US diplomat Kennan back in 1946 after he had spent much time in Moscow during the war. Some have described it as the philosophy behind the cold war. The Telegram, a summary of which can be viewed here, may be one of the most significant documents regarding US foreign policy that exists. It involves an assumption that the Soviets wanted to spread ‘communism’ throughout the world and that the US itself would be threatened. This paved the way for McCarthyism, the Vietnam War etc. and the assumptions it made are still evident in the US’s attitude towards Russia - even though it is no longer ‘communist’. He appeared passionate in his belief that Soviet Society threatened the US as is evident from this passage:
We must formulate and put forward for other nations a much more positive and constructive picture of sort of world we would like to see than we have put forward in [the] past. It is not enough to urge people to develop political processes similar to our own. Many foreign peoples, in Europe at least, are tired and frightened by experiences of past, and are less interested in abstract freedom than in security. They are seeking guidance rather than responsibilities. We should be better able than Russians to give them this. And unless we do, Russians certainly will.
It is not difficult to identify the connection between these sentiments and American Exceptionalism’s crusade to bring democratic liberalism to the world. This statement actually explains Exceptionalism because it provides an excuse for the US’s paternal attitude towards its partners in Europe. These latter, along with the rest of the world, will be brought into line with colour evolutions, regime change, sanctions or even invasion. So, Kennan is saying that the US must impose its version of how society should function on everyone else - or the Russians certainly will.
Kennan concludes:
Finally, we must have courage and self-confidence to cling to our own methods and conceptions of human society. After all, the greatest danger that can befall us in coping with this problem of Soviet communism, is that we shall allow ourselves to become like those with whom we are coping.
People living in the US will be aware of the irony in this statement. In many ways, but especially in relation to free speech, the US (and the UK) are no better than the former USSR. The Telegram may also have been responsible for the view, held by many in US military and political circles, that the Russians will flee under pressure.
Dad Pardons Son
In spite of his public vow not to pardon his son Hunter, who faced 25 year in jail, Sleepy Joe has done just that - as everyone expected. When you have introduced the principle that some in power are above the law, you no longer have democracy. Biden is acting more like an Emperor than a President and we can all see that he has no clothes. Meanwhile, here in the UK you can face imprisonment for a careless Facebook post. But maybe this story has some legs since Special Counsel, David Weiss has said that: ‘The defendant’s motion should be denied since there is no binding authority on this Court which requires dismissal’.
I can understand this from a personal/familial point of view. Apparently Dr. Jill was influential in making Joe change his mind - so they say. I wonder how many parents would let their son go to prison for 25 years when they had the power to prevent this? I can judge them harshly as political players, definitely, but not, on this occasion, as people.
Wet Western Dreams - Lavrov
There has been much talk among European leaders about sending troops to Ukraine - which is the bravado of the weak talking. But Lavrov reminded them that the West had begun this war and that NATO troops have been assisting the Ukrainians to attack Russian soil for years. He mocked the Europeans for having ‘fantasies’ about sending troops to Ukraine in spite of Putin’s warnings. But he stopped short of making threats - this man is no Donald J Trump. He is always the cool professional.
The emerging Multi-Polar World
The Falling Empire
Trump Makes Demands
Donald Trump has warned BRICS countries that they face 100% tariffs if they do not abandon plans to create their own currency:
We demand that these countries commit not to create a new BRICS currency or support any other currency to replace the mighty US dollar, otherwise, they will face 100% tariffs,
Hey - the dollar is no longer mighty and BRICS is nowhere near to creating an alternative currency which is not its main objective anyway. Rather, BRICS is encouraging countries to trade in their own currencies. Furthermore, the dollar won’t fall precipitously off a cliff. No, its demise will be more like frozen treacle falling off a spoon. Trump doesn’t appear able to grasp the fact that countries are looking for alternatives to the dollar because of such threats. You can shake your fists at the tide, Donald, but you can’t turn it back. Sputnik provides some detail.
Trump has also told Hamas that if the hostages are not released there will be ‘hell to pay’:
Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America.
I don’t think the US can hit the Palestinian people any harder than the Israelis have done, Orange man. The fact that you are saying nothing of the war crimes they have committed may be politically expedient for now but historians will judge you harshly and deservedly.
Trade Realities
The US has a $433 billions trade deficit with BRICS countries whereas the latter do not have a significant trade deficit with the US. According to the Two Majors:
The US depends on BRICS for a wide range of physical goods, from machinery and pharmaceuticals to rare earth minerals, with the bloc accounting for 40%-70% of production in these sectors. Meanwhile, the US’s main exports - arms, petroleum, food, and cars - are widely available globally, especially within BRICS countries.
So, it seems that the US is much more reliant on trade with BRICS countries than these are reliant on the US. China’s decision to halt exports of gallium to the US demonstrates this (see above).
BRICS economies, led by Russia, have already begun reducing their reliance on US debt and the dollar by shifting to local currencies in trade, now accounting for 65% of BRICS-to-BRICS transactions.
The following charts tell their own story:
There is a growing tendency for countries to use their own currencies in transactions rather than the dollar: ‘a process that is gaining momentum all over the world’ - according to Sputnik. In attempting to prevent change, the US will only accelerate it. Sputnik provides more detail in this report.
It’s been an amazing week really. Many things have been actually happening rather than being in prospect. I have found myself having to spend much more time catching up with additional events in places like Syria and South Korea while continuing to monitor the rest of the world. I have been busy.
Many thanks for you views, subscriptions, shares, restacks, likes and comments. Have a good week. Best Rob
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Note that Crooke believes that Turkiye’s intelligence services are supporting the rebels, yet Erdogan has said: ‘Our greatest wish is for Syria's territorial integrity and national unity to be preserved and for [the conflict] to end with consensus in line with the legitimate demands of the Syrian people’. But we all know that Erdogan often speaks with ‘forked tongue’.
Thank you.
Tim Watkins [Consciousness of Sheep] and Dr. Tim Morgan [Seeds] both have very good articles this week about the long term financial health of the 'Western' economies. Things are not looking good for those who have to live under the yoke of neo-liberal governments and economic policies. Interesting comment earlier this week that the British army would be destroyed in 6 months in a war against Russia.
Thanks Rob, for your comprehensive round-up.
The failing Empire is determined to do as much damage as possible before its credit runs out.
• With 25,000 NGOS on the payroll in Georgia it is easy to fill the streets with EU flag-wavers, armed with fireworks-machineguns (a new twist). Soooo similar to the Maiden Square demos. Just waiting for the CIA-paid snipers to appear.
• The largely foreign, rent-a-jihad, head choppers in Syria now have a host of NATO tanks to menace Syria with. And the biggest army in NATO is at their backs, being put forward by the treacherous Erdogan, for his own ends. He is wanting to get his dibs on the Syrian oil that the Yanks are currently stealing. Israel is in the mix, helping arm the head-choppers, trying to stop arms to Hezbola from coming from Iran.The Iraqis have sent troops. Russian jets are hammering those NATO tanks, and the Syrian Arab Army, tired from its relentless battles, is still fighting strongly. This is about defending Israel from the Axis of Resistance, and is going to get a lot bigger. There is a far greater risk of nuclear war here than in Ukraine.
• Oh and Nicaragua has just green-lighted Russia to build a military base there!
• Our ABC keeps referring to the head choppers as "moderate rebels" FFS.
• MBS some time ago withdrew funding from the head choppers. He is a VERY interesting addition to the world stage. He has been pushing SA out of medieval times, into the 21st century, and getting SA out from under the hegemon. He is prepared to be ruthless, by our standards, but when you are up against the CIA it is the only way to go. As Putin knows.
• Australia voted for a Palestinian state in the UN and lo and behold, a synagogue was set alight, at a time when people were in it, so all their precious torah inscriptions were saved. They are now screaming "anti-semitism" from the rooftops. False Flag? Certainly looks that way.
• Lastly, is sleepy Joe aware that he has pardoned his son? Give him an ice cream and tell him about the latest fronts that the US is opening up in his name, before the loose cannon takes over.