Another excellent report. It's a full time job following everything but one thing that the Ukraine war has done is united anti-imperialist forces around the world and plugged them together through the web which is why 'they' are trying to stop it. I hadn't even heard of the Moon of Alabama or Naked Capitalism before the conflict and only aware of Mercouris through RT (now banned). The level of debate and understanding in the anti-imperialist camp has been outstanding - specially the US channels. Britain lags behind which is why your contributions on this and Gaza are outstanding. They are accurate, honest, comprehensive and clear
Response to Dr. Rob Campbell's "Ukraine Weekly Update - 8th December 2023"
"The Russian figures are always underestimates, as Richard Steven Hack has shown but the other figure seems too high - but what do I know!"
The figures always depended on whether the Russian MoD reports "killed" only, or "killed and wounded." Throughout the war, the MoD has mostly reported using words like "destroyed", 'eliminated", etc.. Only rarely have they said "killed and wounded." Andrei Martyanov, based on what he's heard from Mairat Khairullin, the Russian war correspondent, has steadfastly claimed that the MoD only reports killed. I tend to believe him; Alexander Mercouris doesn't.
But when we turn to the actual effects on the battlefield that matter - which is combat and operational effectiveness - we see the reality. Ukraine has zero operational effectiveness - that is, they cannot achieve any operational success on any level - and almost zero combat effectiveness - that is, they cannot launch any credible attacks that have a real chance of seriously harming Russian formations.
This is how you know the higher figures are correct. There may be other factors as well. The primary one is the lack of training current conscripts are getting. So it's possible that Ukraine has more women, teenagers, and old men on the field than I think - but what difference does it make if all they can do is die, if not today, then tomorrow? That's not going to extend the war for two more years like Simplicius thinks. In other words, the mere presence of bodies doesn't mean your army isn't on the verge of collapse.
And then, the Ukrainians themselves have admitted "we don't have the men to use the weapons the West sends to us." If, as some people aver, the Ukrainians started the war with 750,000 troops, and then rose to a million man army last year, and still have a couple million conscripts in reserve, then given that statement, the higher figures have to be correct. Otherwise we would see them on the battlefield. As far as I know, no one has given an estimate of how many Ukrainian combat capable troops are actually on the field at the moment. All people can do is wave hands and claim "Ukraine still has an army."
Finally, the only reason the Russians haven't overrun the Ukrainian military so far is as I and many others have said since the start: the length of the front, and the fortifications. Russia is not interested in taking more casualties than they must. They've taken many thousands so far and don't want more. So they won't move forward until it's a cake walk for them. Since the Ukrainians are happy to die, Russia will let them until it does become a cake walk. Based on recent Russian advances all along the front, that time is very near. As Andrei Martyanov has pointed out, the Russians are building "heavy artillery" brigades armed with large-bore artillery like the 203mm Pion self-propelled gun. He says this is precisely because they are preparing an offensive to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.
All the evidence is that Russia is preparing a winter offensive which will probably start in January or February when the ground is hardest. Any "hasty" defenses the Ukrainians build between now and then will be locally pierced and then enveloped, so the Ukrainians "going on defense" will be mostly irrelevant. Ukraine will be forced to flee to the other side of the Dnieper where that will be repeated.
This is assuming the Kiev regime doesn't collapse first and the military surrenders, of course, Anything is possible. But eliding that, the war will continue through spring with the Ukrainian army merely retreating again and again, helpless against the Russian advance until Kherson, Nicolaev, Kharkiv, and Odessa are taken, and finally Kiev is surrounded, perhaps by or during summer of 2024. It may not be fast, but it will be inevitable.
"I’m not so sure that simply sending a soldier to his death is a war crime, but I see his point."
I assume it's a translation thing, and he probably said something like "deliberately sending a soldier to his death." As in, sending him out just to be killed in a hopeless cause.
Another excellent report. It's a full time job following everything but one thing that the Ukraine war has done is united anti-imperialist forces around the world and plugged them together through the web which is why 'they' are trying to stop it. I hadn't even heard of the Moon of Alabama or Naked Capitalism before the conflict and only aware of Mercouris through RT (now banned). The level of debate and understanding in the anti-imperialist camp has been outstanding - specially the US channels. Britain lags behind which is why your contributions on this and Gaza are outstanding. They are accurate, honest, comprehensive and clear
Thanks John - that's appreciated very much. It is, indeed, a full time job following everything.
Response to Dr. Rob Campbell's "Ukraine Weekly Update - 8th December 2023"
"The Russian figures are always underestimates, as Richard Steven Hack has shown but the other figure seems too high - but what do I know!"
The figures always depended on whether the Russian MoD reports "killed" only, or "killed and wounded." Throughout the war, the MoD has mostly reported using words like "destroyed", 'eliminated", etc.. Only rarely have they said "killed and wounded." Andrei Martyanov, based on what he's heard from Mairat Khairullin, the Russian war correspondent, has steadfastly claimed that the MoD only reports killed. I tend to believe him; Alexander Mercouris doesn't.
But when we turn to the actual effects on the battlefield that matter - which is combat and operational effectiveness - we see the reality. Ukraine has zero operational effectiveness - that is, they cannot achieve any operational success on any level - and almost zero combat effectiveness - that is, they cannot launch any credible attacks that have a real chance of seriously harming Russian formations.
This is how you know the higher figures are correct. There may be other factors as well. The primary one is the lack of training current conscripts are getting. So it's possible that Ukraine has more women, teenagers, and old men on the field than I think - but what difference does it make if all they can do is die, if not today, then tomorrow? That's not going to extend the war for two more years like Simplicius thinks. In other words, the mere presence of bodies doesn't mean your army isn't on the verge of collapse.
And then, the Ukrainians themselves have admitted "we don't have the men to use the weapons the West sends to us." If, as some people aver, the Ukrainians started the war with 750,000 troops, and then rose to a million man army last year, and still have a couple million conscripts in reserve, then given that statement, the higher figures have to be correct. Otherwise we would see them on the battlefield. As far as I know, no one has given an estimate of how many Ukrainian combat capable troops are actually on the field at the moment. All people can do is wave hands and claim "Ukraine still has an army."
Finally, the only reason the Russians haven't overrun the Ukrainian military so far is as I and many others have said since the start: the length of the front, and the fortifications. Russia is not interested in taking more casualties than they must. They've taken many thousands so far and don't want more. So they won't move forward until it's a cake walk for them. Since the Ukrainians are happy to die, Russia will let them until it does become a cake walk. Based on recent Russian advances all along the front, that time is very near. As Andrei Martyanov has pointed out, the Russians are building "heavy artillery" brigades armed with large-bore artillery like the 203mm Pion self-propelled gun. He says this is precisely because they are preparing an offensive to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.
All the evidence is that Russia is preparing a winter offensive which will probably start in January or February when the ground is hardest. Any "hasty" defenses the Ukrainians build between now and then will be locally pierced and then enveloped, so the Ukrainians "going on defense" will be mostly irrelevant. Ukraine will be forced to flee to the other side of the Dnieper where that will be repeated.
This is assuming the Kiev regime doesn't collapse first and the military surrenders, of course, Anything is possible. But eliding that, the war will continue through spring with the Ukrainian army merely retreating again and again, helpless against the Russian advance until Kherson, Nicolaev, Kharkiv, and Odessa are taken, and finally Kiev is surrounded, perhaps by or during summer of 2024. It may not be fast, but it will be inevitable.
Thanks Richard. There's much I didn't know in what you said so it is appreciated.
"I’m not so sure that simply sending a soldier to his death is a war crime, but I see his point."
I assume it's a translation thing, and he probably said something like "deliberately sending a soldier to his death." As in, sending him out just to be killed in a hopeless cause.
Thanks for that - translation is an issue because I don't speak any of these languages.
I absolutely like these reports and sitreps! They are the best summaries of all. Many thanks!!