Ukraine Weekly Update
8th December 2023
Non-subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.
Once again, this week has been dominated by the indiscriminate bombing of civilians and their infrastructure in Gaza (see my Israel-Palestine Weekly Update). However, the conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhny has preoccupied many commentators along with the US’s decision not to fund Ukraine. This does not mean that the US will provide no more funding but it does mean that the issue of funding is likely to be kicked around like a political football until the US election in November 2024. So these are uncertain times for Zelensky and others in Ukraine’s administration. It seems that the Ukrainian army is creaking at the seams and fresh blood through mobilization is becoming problematic due to an understandable lack of enthusiasm. Recruitment cannot keep pace with losses. Vladimir Putin has had a good week diplomatically, meeting with heads of state from Saudi Arabia, Oman, the UAE and Iran. He has also announced his candidature for the March 2024 Presidential Elections.
Putin Will Run
For the Presidential election in March of next year, according to Tass.
All About Zelensky
Volodymyr Zelensky’s earthly woes are clearly evident in the recent photo above. God only knows what his spiritual condition is like. He has said that he believes in God but speaks to Him only in moments that are 'personal to me’. He describes himself as ‘a Ukrainian with Jewish blood’. Volodymyr married his ‘childhood sweetheart’, Olena, which some will find romantic, and attended University with her. He took a degree in law rather than his chosen subject, English, which he wanted to study in Israel. But his father refused. Anyway, even at 17 he was performing with a comedy trio and decided to earn his living on the stage rather than in a courtroom. I can relate to that because I was always torn between performing music and pursuing one career or another.
As it happened, his musical career was very successful but his political career much less so (sorry - typical English understatement). You will know much of this but I think it is worth finding out more about a man who, even in his helpless condition as a puppet of the West, has become a sort of Icon who now wants to assert himself as a human agent. But this ‘agency’ is limited and has no teeth to bite those above it. So, this week, at the last minute, Volodymyr Zelensky bowed out of a ‘Zoom’ meeting with members of the US congress where he was just about to ask (plead) for funding. According to one Ukrainian Telegram channel, Z has been in a bad mood all week, acting aggressively towards colleagues - because he knows that the US congress will not fund him. His failure to attend the ‘Zoom’ meeting was due to this ‘bad mood’ and his disappointment. I have to admit that if I were walking in the shoes of the not so Great Z, the term disappointment would not do justice to the sense of betrayal and hopelessness I would be feeling. Viktor Medvedchuk, former Ukrainian opposition leader, now a Russian exile, has added insult to injury by criticising the Zelensky regime as ‘bad negotiators’ and ‘criminal amateurs’ who are incapable of governing a nation - according to RT. Some of the commentators I follow have been saying this for nineteen months or so.
Ze v Za
It is rumoured that the mayor of Kiev, Volodymyr Klitschko, is negotiating with Zaluzhny on a joint political project, though the nature of the project is unclear from legitimniy’s account - as is Zaluzhny’s enthusiasm for it. Klitschko gave an interview to a Swiss news outlet in which he said that ‘Zelensky will pay for his mistakes’ because he didn’t prepare Ukraine for war and provided too much information ‘that didn’t match reality’. But Klitschko urged people to support Z until the end of the war.
The Zelensky administration has warned that people who support political moves on Telegram channels would be committing treason. Indeed, any criticism of Z is considered to be treason. It is being reported that Zelensky is bypassing Zaluzhny and giving orders directly to the latter’s commanders. Officially, the rift between the two is being denied and Russia is being blamed for spreading false rumours. legitimniy is also reporting that Lloyd Austin told Zelensky that sacking Zaluzhny would have consequences for international support. Many countries would view Zelensky as a dictator and refuse to provide aid. The US may appear to be operating as a referee between the two, but it would actually be supporting Zaluzhny behind the scenes - according to legitimniy. But it appears that Zelensky has not taken Austin’s advice and is attempting to build up a case against Zaluzhny based on alleged military competence. On the 5th December legitimniy reported that Zelensky has asked Zaluzhny to resign for health reasons but the latter has refused, inviting Z to fire him instead. The Ukraine Defence minister Umerov also criticised Zaluzhny at a meeting with US officials in Washington.
During Austin’s visit, Zaluzhny is reported to have asked for 17 million projectiles and $350-400 billions in order to take back the territory Ukraine has lost. In the real world, 97% of Ukraine aid has gone, according to the US State Department - reported in Slavyangrad. It appears that the US is at last beginning to prioritise the crisis on its own southern border over Ukraine.
Z’s Confessions
Zelensky met with students in Nikolaev this week and admitted that the Donbass will be difficult to recover because the people living there don’t want to be part of Ukraine. If he knows that, why on earth has he not withdrawn his troops from the Donbass? Why has he allowed hundreds of thousands to die for what he knows is a lost cause. I must say that I am gobsmacked by this confession. He also confessed that Ukraine will never join NATO, according to Pravda.
Z - Escape Plan
Pravda is reporting that the US is preparing an escape plan for Zelensky and his family. They will all be relocated to the US, possibly to Florida, according to Pravda (reported by Slavyangrad).
The Awakening Begins
It is becoming evident from Ukrainian Telegram channels that many Ukrainians are waking up to the fact that they have been let down by the West, the US and even the Ukrainian diaspora abroad. Anna Odesa, MD had this to say:
I wonder how many tears she has shed over the constant killing of civilians in the Donbass over the past nine years?
In a recent interview, Arestovich said that Ukraine’s biggest tragedy was that it chose the wrong side - taking that of the Western globalists rather than that of the Russian realists. Another, rather late, awakening.
Ukrainian Women Want Their Husbands Back
The surprising (and sad) thing about this is how small the demonstration is.
Peace Poll
A recent poll in Ukraine indicates that 44% Ukrainians want negotiations with Russia and are willing to compromise. This figure was 35% in February and July. But there are still 48% of Ukrainians who do not want to negotiate with Russia and insist on regaining all the territories they have lost - according to RT. This also Z’s position, of course.
Russian MP Suggests Ukraine Referendum
Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on Defence, Yuri Shvytkin, has suggested that the Ukrainian people should take part in a referendum to establish whether they want to join the Russian Federation, according to Pravda. The above map shows what the Ukraine may look like following a referendum.
War Related Issues
Mobilisation
The Ukrainians will be employing contractors to help speed up mobilisation and many more Ukrainian citizens will be expected to serve. The widening of conscription has resulted in panic among the people and further distrust in the no longer Great Z. More and more people are attempting to leave the country and the courts have been inundated with cases challenging mobilisation, according to legitimniy. Among some Ukrainian commentators there is a feeling that society is falling apart. It appears that students are now being mobilized in Lvov. Indeed, anyone, male or female, between the ages of 17-70 is obliged to serve in the military; even some of those with disabilities are required to serve.
Ukraine Casualties
Rybar is reporting that total Ukraine casualties since the SMO began as 536,000 including nearly 215,000 killed. South Front is reporting that according to the Russian MoD, Ukraine lost 125,000 servicemen (killed and wounded I assume) since the counter offensive began on June 4th. The Russian figures are always underestimates, as Richard Steven Hack has shown but the other figure seems too high - but what do I know!
Ukraine Counter-Offensive a War Crime
Polish General Leon Komornicki called the Ukrainian counter-offensive a war crime. Kyiv, he said, was guided by assessments of the enemy that were divorced from reality and generated by numerous ‘experts’. According to Komornicki:
This was not a counter-offensive. It was sending a soldier to his death. And sending a soldier to his death is a war crime.
I’m not so sure that simply sending a soldier to his death is a war crime, but I see his point.
Ukrainian Army Not Up To NATO Standard
The Washington Post - thought to be a mouthpiece of the US intelligence community, has published an article that seeks to account for the failed counteroffensive and places much of the blame on the Ukrainians (no surprise there). But the article does not mention the lack of air support, without which the offensive was always going to be an impossibility1 Combined arms offensives must involve an air arm, which the Ukrainians did not possess in any significant strength or depth. Some commentators have noticed an air of Western superiority among the excuses. Zaluzhny is said to be incompetent and the Ukrainian soldiers, who fought ‘incorrectly’, were not up to NATO standard. The Russians were also criticised for incompetence and the flagrant disregard for the lives of soldiers expended in suicidal attacks. They were saying this a year ago and it was just as false then as it is now.
Stoltenberg - Ukraine Situation Close to Critical
Long gone are the days of the ‘Ukraine is winning’ narrative along with the ‘Ukraine is not losing’ narrative. Even Jens Stoltenberg is admitting that the military situations is close to critical, so he told a German newspaper. ‘But we will support you even in bad times’, he said, according to the Military Chronicle. So, NATO will continue to support Ukraine even as it lays dying, with blood pouring from a mouth uttering its final death throes. That’s reassuring.
Yermak Agrees
Head of the Ukraine President’s office, Andrei Yermak told The Institute of Peace in Washington that:
If the aid being discussed in Congress is simply delayed, there is a great risk that we will remain in the same positions as we are now. It will become impossible to advance, and there is a big risk of losing this war.
Funding Off Ramp?
Some are saying that the apparent difficulties in securing US funding for Ukraine, which are being presented to the people as a product of competing demands on the government’s purse, could actually be an off ramp. ‘We would like to provide you with money’ Biden’s camp will say, ‘but the Republicans won’t let us’. The latter know that money is needed to resolve the southern border issue which is of greater concern to the American people than Ukraine. b has written about this on the MoA (6th December) if you would like more detail. Simplicius also writes about it here in a long article.
On December 6th, in spite of Biden’s warning that ‘Russia will not stop at Ukraine’ Republican Senators blocked the passage of the funding bill at the procedural stage. The Bill would have provided funding to Ukraine ($61 billion), according to Zero Hedge. The funding bill also contained funding for Israel, humanitarian aid for Gaza, some aid for Taiwan and a small amount of money to deal with the crisis on the US’s southern border. But there was insufficient support to allow the bill to be discussed. So, I’m not sure what happens next really. Tass suggests that Republicans could continue to resist discussion of the bill indefinitely.
However, the Biden Administration, including Lloyd Austin and John Kirby are trying to twist the arms of recalcitrant Republican Senators by threatening them with the ludicrous claim that it will be necessary to send US troop to Ukraine if it is deprived of US funding ( a variation on ‘if we don’t fight them over there we will end up fighting them here’). The old Soviet Era threat that Russia is set on overrunning Europe (also employed by Z) has been rolled out so often that it gets boring. Whether it will work or not is debatable. Simplicius provides some detail here.
In the light of the above, it is by no means certain that the Biden administration wanted to use the funding issue as an off ramp.
Ukraine Terrorist Attacks (i.e. attacks targeting civilians)
December 1st
Heavy shelling of Belgorod continues and in the DPR 38 missiles were launched at civilian targets but caused no casualties.
December 2nd/3rd
Villages in Belgorod continue to be attacked by heavy artillery and mortars while the DPR suffered 184 shells injuring ten civilians.
December 4th/5th
Belgorod came under fire once again overnight and 230 shells were lobbed into the DPR injuring seven people. Late on the 5th, six drones were shot down over Belgorod region.
December 5th/6th
Belgorod was attacked again overnight by shelling and drones while in the DPR a civilian was killed in Gorlovka by shelling.
December 6th/7th
The shelling of towns and villages continued in Belgorod while Suzemka in Bryansk was also shelled. On the 6th, the DPR suffered a massive attack by US supplied HIMARS which killed one woman and wounded 18 others. A second attack at Budenovsky market (Donetsk) killed two and injured another 13.
On the 6th December, a car bomb killed Oleg Popov, a former MP of the Lugansk People’s Republic - according to RT. On the same day:
Ilya Kiva, a former Ukrainian opposition MP and a staunch critic of President Vladimir Zelensky, was killed in Moscow Region. According to the Russian Investigative Committee, the politician was shot near a cottage he was residing in. Ukrainian media have since claimed that the nation’s intelligence services were behind his murder.
December 7th/8th
Villages in Belgorod region came under Ukrainian shelling overnight while 83 projectiles were lobbed into the DPR injuring 3 civilians, including a young boy. A single drone was shot down over Voronezh but caused no damage nor casualties.
The Sea War
Crimea/Sea of Azov
On the 1st December a boat was destroyed by Russian aircraft in the Western part of the Black Sea. On the 2nd Dec, two converted S-200 missiles were destroyed over the Sea of Azov. On the 4th, 22 drones were destroyed and 13 drones intercepted over Crimea and the Sea of Azov. Then, early on the morning of the 5th, another four were shot down while two intercepted over the Sea of Azov.
On the evening of the 5th December a Russian SU-24 was shot down over the Black Sea not far from Snake Island.
The Air War (Map)
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
1st/2nd December Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
Geranium UAVs operated at night in the Odessa region, our drones were in the area of the ports of Kiliya and Chernomorsk. In addition, missile overflights were recorded through the Zaporozhye region and Dnepropetrovsk.
4th/5th December Overnight
Ukrainian Telegram channels reported loud explosions in Kharkov region overnight. Geraniums were reported over Borova (Kharkov) which caused ‘powerful fires’ and over Odessa. Meanwhile, Shaheeds were reported over Nikolaev region. In the area of Chuguev and Izyum, Geran-2 drones hit infrastructure facilities. Fires were reported. Explosions were also reported in Khmelnitsky region, where Starokonstantinov airfield was probably attacked again. Geraniums have even reached Lvov, flying over Ternopil.
5th/6th December Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
Another night in Ukraine passed amid strikes by "Geraniums" on the rear regions. Explosions were heard in Odessa, Kirovograd, Zhitomir, Kharkov and Khmelnitsky regions. The RF Armed Forces hit a target in Dnepropetrovsk region with missile weapons.
6th/7th Overnight
According to the Military Chronicle:
Last night, as always, our UAVs attacked the ports of Kiliya, Izmail, Reni in the Odessa region. Arrivals were spotted in the Bolgrad district, where new depots for Western military aid have appeared. And, of course, "Geraniums" fell on the Starokostyantyniv airfield in the Khmelnytskyi region.
7th/8th Overnight
On the evening of the 7th, Mirgorod airfield in Poltava was attacked with KH-59 Cruise missiles, according to Slavyangrad. Ukrainian SU 27 aircraft operate out of this airfield. Geranium 2s were reported to be flying over Pavlograd in Dnipro, possibly aimed at the chemical plant and a missiles storage facility. Kharkov and Nikolaev districts also came under attack.
Ukrainian Missile/Drone Attacks
Dec 4th
On December 4th, a Ukrainian drone hit an oil depot in Luhansk. This caused a fire that was quickly extinguished, according to South Front.
December 5th
Explosive dropped from drones attacked and disabled an electrical substation in Zaporizhzhe but caused no casualties.
The Ground War
Russian MoD Reports
The Russian MoD reported 1030 Ukrainian casualties on the 6th December, which is the highest figure I have seen in a while.
Weekly Figures
w/e 10th November: Casualties 4825 killed and wounded; equipment losses 308 (includes 15 boats)
w/e 17th November: Casualties 5115 killed and wounded; equipment losses 227
w/e 24th November: 4190 Casualties killed and wounded; equipment losses 230 (includes 12 boats)
w/e 8th December: 4940 Casualties killed and wounded; equipment losses 242 (includes 21 boats)
The Fronts
Marinka
The Russians have finally captured Marinka and are displaying a flag at a house on the western outskirts of the city.
Kherson - Krynki
The Ukrainian occupation of the small village of Krynki on the left bank of the Dnieper is one of the strangest episodes in a long list of failed Ukrainian offensives. Ukrainians have been taking heavy casualties there for weeks, if not months, but they have not progressed at all. Furthermore, resupplying and reinforcing troops in Krynki is extremely difficult. For a long time I have wondered where the Ukrainians intend to go next, even if they manage to build a decent bridgehead at Krynki. According to the Military Chronicle, the supply situation to Krynki and Frolov Island is extremely difficult while the reinforcements are inexperienced youth and are few in number. One Ukrainian soldier told the BBC of the hell he had experienced in Krynki to which much equipment had to be carried by hand. He also appears to have fallen for the ‘Russians will flee’ propaganda:
We thought after we made it there [to Krynki] the enemy would flee and then we could calmly transport everything we needed, but it didn't turn out that way.
It is amazing how effective propaganda is at creating false realities: there was never a chance that the Russians would flee - yet this man believed it would happen.
Zaporizhzhe - Rabotino - Verbove
On December 4th, after the Ukrainians transferred troops from here to Avdeevka and Maryinka, the Russians launched a counter attack which has had some success, according to Slavyangrad. The Ukrainians have recently launched another attack towards Verbove which has stalled due the poor weather conditions (see top right hand map).
Kupyansk
On the 6th December, fighting continued near Synkivka, close to Kupiansk. Russian troops have secured positions on the northern outskirts of the village and are preparing for defense, while Ukrainian forces are establishing a new line in case Synkivka is lost. Therefore, strongholds and fortified positions are being established in Petropavlovka, according to Rybar. The Ukrainians continue to reinforce the area while weakening other sectors.
Soledar/Artemovsk (Bakhmut)
According to Rybar:
In the Soledar direction, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a series of successful attacks in several areas. The liberation of Artemivske (Khromovo) about a week ago can actually be considered the transfer of the initiative to the Russian army near Bakhmut. Only now the servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are attacking in three areas at once, and the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is getting worse.
And in the south:
On the southern flank of Bakhmut, combined Russian units successfully stormed the heights adjacent to Klishchiivka. As a result, the Russian Armed Forces captured the tactically important height 235.7 north of the village. Control over this position makes it possible to keep under constant observation all approaches to Klishchiivka, as well as landings to the north in the direction of Krasny (Ivanovskoye)
According to the Two Majors:
At Kleshcheevka, the 119th regiment and adjacent units approached the opornik at a height; if we take it, Kleshcheevka is completely ours and the road to Chasovy Yar is under control.
Once the Russians have control of Chasov Yar, the road to Kramatorsk in the north west will be open.
Siversk
A large-scale offensive operation is underway in the Seversk direction from Veselovka, Razdolovka to Belogorovka - according to Slavyangrad.
The Economic War
Russia and OPEC+
Putin, accompanied by Sergei Lavrov and others, visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia this week to discuss oil production and the Middle East crisis. Putin is completely isolated, so they have been telling us. But this footage of Putin’s welcome to Abu Dhabi (UAE) says otherwise. Better than being left in a plane for half an hour as Anthony Blinken was when he visited the Saudis. Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, was among those welcomed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salam. The warmth of the welcome is evident from this brief footage. The welcome the prince gave Putin is even warmer. Recently OPEC+ countries agreed to extend and deepen oil production cuts. On this trip, Putin also met with Crown Prince of Oman, Theyazin bin Haitham al Said. And Theyazin had something interesting to say:
I would like to confirm that I share all your [Putin's] assessments of the current international situation, primarily with regard to the need to end the current unfair world order and the dominance of the West, as well as to build a new fair world order, economic relations without double standards.
Russian Grain Going to EU
In spite of the many sanctions the EU has imposed on Russia it is now among the largest importers of Russian grain. There is absolutely no consistency in European thinking at all.
World Politics
Putin meets with President Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow
At their meeting in Moscow (see photo above), the Iranian President condemned what Israel is doing in Gaza as genocide and a crime against humanity. He called for a ‘quick solution’, according to Al Jazeera.
Pistorius - Ukraine is NOT an Ally
German minister of defence, Boris Pistorius, has said that Ukraine is not an ally.
We are doing what we can. The same applies to almost all other allies and partners. But Germany is not an ally of Ukraine and, therefore, is not part of any alliance.
It is true that Ukraine is not officially part of an alliance but it is ridiculous to claim that a country Germany has been heavily supporting for a year and a half is not an ally.
Moldova
Last week, I talked about protests by Polish truckers and farmers and suggested that Slovakia and Hungary have similar concerns about cheap Ukrainian produce flooding their markets. I also said that all three have territorial claims on Ukraine. Well - coincidentally so has Moldova which is the latest to see farmers protesting against Ukrainian produce. The farmers are also concerned that bankrupt farms will be handed over to large foreign corporations - which is happening in other countries. The Deep State wants total control of our food, as well as all aspects of our lives. You can read more here.
Well, that’s it for another week, which has been busy for me. Many thanks for your views, subscriptions, likes and kind comments. Best Rob
Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.
You may have difficulty accessing the Post article but b covers it well on the MoA (5th Dec).
Another excellent report. It's a full time job following everything but one thing that the Ukraine war has done is united anti-imperialist forces around the world and plugged them together through the web which is why 'they' are trying to stop it. I hadn't even heard of the Moon of Alabama or Naked Capitalism before the conflict and only aware of Mercouris through RT (now banned). The level of debate and understanding in the anti-imperialist camp has been outstanding - specially the US channels. Britain lags behind which is why your contributions on this and Gaza are outstanding. They are accurate, honest, comprehensive and clear
Response to Dr. Rob Campbell's "Ukraine Weekly Update - 8th December 2023"
"The Russian figures are always underestimates, as Richard Steven Hack has shown but the other figure seems too high - but what do I know!"
The figures always depended on whether the Russian MoD reports "killed" only, or "killed and wounded." Throughout the war, the MoD has mostly reported using words like "destroyed", 'eliminated", etc.. Only rarely have they said "killed and wounded." Andrei Martyanov, based on what he's heard from Mairat Khairullin, the Russian war correspondent, has steadfastly claimed that the MoD only reports killed. I tend to believe him; Alexander Mercouris doesn't.
But when we turn to the actual effects on the battlefield that matter - which is combat and operational effectiveness - we see the reality. Ukraine has zero operational effectiveness - that is, they cannot achieve any operational success on any level - and almost zero combat effectiveness - that is, they cannot launch any credible attacks that have a real chance of seriously harming Russian formations.
This is how you know the higher figures are correct. There may be other factors as well. The primary one is the lack of training current conscripts are getting. So it's possible that Ukraine has more women, teenagers, and old men on the field than I think - but what difference does it make if all they can do is die, if not today, then tomorrow? That's not going to extend the war for two more years like Simplicius thinks. In other words, the mere presence of bodies doesn't mean your army isn't on the verge of collapse.
And then, the Ukrainians themselves have admitted "we don't have the men to use the weapons the West sends to us." If, as some people aver, the Ukrainians started the war with 750,000 troops, and then rose to a million man army last year, and still have a couple million conscripts in reserve, then given that statement, the higher figures have to be correct. Otherwise we would see them on the battlefield. As far as I know, no one has given an estimate of how many Ukrainian combat capable troops are actually on the field at the moment. All people can do is wave hands and claim "Ukraine still has an army."
Finally, the only reason the Russians haven't overrun the Ukrainian military so far is as I and many others have said since the start: the length of the front, and the fortifications. Russia is not interested in taking more casualties than they must. They've taken many thousands so far and don't want more. So they won't move forward until it's a cake walk for them. Since the Ukrainians are happy to die, Russia will let them until it does become a cake walk. Based on recent Russian advances all along the front, that time is very near. As Andrei Martyanov has pointed out, the Russians are building "heavy artillery" brigades armed with large-bore artillery like the 203mm Pion self-propelled gun. He says this is precisely because they are preparing an offensive to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.
All the evidence is that Russia is preparing a winter offensive which will probably start in January or February when the ground is hardest. Any "hasty" defenses the Ukrainians build between now and then will be locally pierced and then enveloped, so the Ukrainians "going on defense" will be mostly irrelevant. Ukraine will be forced to flee to the other side of the Dnieper where that will be repeated.
This is assuming the Kiev regime doesn't collapse first and the military surrenders, of course, Anything is possible. But eliding that, the war will continue through spring with the Ukrainian army merely retreating again and again, helpless against the Russian advance until Kherson, Nicolaev, Kharkiv, and Odessa are taken, and finally Kiev is surrounded, perhaps by or during summer of 2024. It may not be fast, but it will be inevitable.