I think it is sad that Ukrainians are always overlooked.
'Ukrainians' always means only the Kiev Ukrainians. And given that they're mainly cannon fodder without a voice it really means the regime. And THAT means the USA. So in fact not even the Kiev Ukrainians 'get a mention'.
But what I mean is that the Ukrainian nation should always have been seen as ALL Ukrainians.
That is: the Kiev Ukrainians and the Donbas Ukrainians.
I contend they ARE the 'Ukrainian nation' and they are 'The Ukrainians'.
To use the correct language. Correct definition of terms.
Split into two parts by the Civil War doesn't change that fact, that underlying reality. Until a generation or two has passed the question 'Where are the Ukrainians' should always properly be answered by 'In Kiev oblasts AND in Donbas Oblasts'
Just as the Jewish 'nation' never ceased to exist during the diaspora so currently the Ukrainian nation exists in these two parts.
Seeing things this way, which is the only correct way, changes the picture enormously.
For it puts on the table the possibility of a 'Ukrainian victory' that is not a 'Russian defeat' nor an 'American' or 'NATO' victory.
The Ukrainian nation itself could win handsomely simply by coming together and announcing itself to be one nation with no intent of allowing anyone or anything to separate them, cause the to fight, ever again.
Many thanks for that Richard - I'm grateful for your comments and I'll have a look at the links. I'm not sure if I've had an email from you before. Advice on the clobber report is especially welcome. Cheers.
As I mentioned in an email to you previously, there are ways of calculating Ukrainian losses. To repost what I mentioned to you here for others consideration:
Another Less-Than-Short Ukrainian Interlude...
Wherein I explain how I calculate Ukrainian losses and estimate the remaining length of the war...
I also posted a similar piece on Andrei Martyanov's blog in a comment, which stimulated a discussion and an interesting post from another commentator. See the comments here:
I also posted two days ago an analysis of what appears to me to be confirmation by the US DoD that Ukraine is running out of men, while attempting to make it seem like they have some huge force remaining:
Wherein the U.S. Department of Defense spills the beans...
They unwittingly confirm that the Ukraine military is on the verge of collapse...
"Russian MoD gave the number of VSU losses (without foreign mercenaries and "advisers") and, WITHOUT VSU losses in the rear (get it?), since the start of "counteroffensive"--43,000 (in Russian). Here is the point I make constantly--MoD's data is extremely conservative and ONLY about what MoD can visually confirm. Many thousands of VSU personnel annihilated in the rear, such as bases, depots, barracks, command posts et al are not even counted in MoD losses reports. Now recall those hundreds of rear positions hit by Russian Army and you will get the idea on the scale of losses of VSU. "
This is what I covered in my cited articles as well - the KIA and WIA reported outside of the specific engagements.
I noted in response to Andrei's post as follows:
"43,000 losses over approximately two months - 43,000 / 60 - comes out to around 716 per day - which is about right given the daily "clobber reports". This is KIA only as Andrei points out and doesn't address wounded in action or WIA.
As my Substack article showed, the actual figure of KIA and WIA is well over 2,000 per day or 60-75,000 per month. This is the equivalent of 10-12 brigades per month. Even if Ukraine has 100 brigades remaining, as some claim, which is approximately 500,000 troops, they will lose them at the current rate within ten months and be combat and operationally useless in much less time. So Russia has essentially confirmed my estimate that the Ukrainian army will collapse in the next 3-6 months.
The US DoD has also confirmed this by letting slip the count of 153,000 Ukrainians involved in the so-called "counter-offensive". Ukraine can't have much more than that as immediate reserves to exploit any hypothetical (and extremely unlikely) breach. And whatever else remains of Ukraine's military - those hiding in cities like Odessa, Kharkiv and Kiev, and those patrolling the border with Belarus and elsewhere - are militarily irrelevant since they are nowhere near the front lines - but as Andrei notes, are also capable of being killed at any time."
Things are much worse in Ukraine than readers of even the Russian MoD reports, let alone the Western MSM, realize.
I think it is sad that Ukrainians are always overlooked.
'Ukrainians' always means only the Kiev Ukrainians. And given that they're mainly cannon fodder without a voice it really means the regime. And THAT means the USA. So in fact not even the Kiev Ukrainians 'get a mention'.
But what I mean is that the Ukrainian nation should always have been seen as ALL Ukrainians.
That is: the Kiev Ukrainians and the Donbas Ukrainians.
I contend they ARE the 'Ukrainian nation' and they are 'The Ukrainians'.
To use the correct language. Correct definition of terms.
Split into two parts by the Civil War doesn't change that fact, that underlying reality. Until a generation or two has passed the question 'Where are the Ukrainians' should always properly be answered by 'In Kiev oblasts AND in Donbas Oblasts'
Just as the Jewish 'nation' never ceased to exist during the diaspora so currently the Ukrainian nation exists in these two parts.
Seeing things this way, which is the only correct way, changes the picture enormously.
For it puts on the table the possibility of a 'Ukrainian victory' that is not a 'Russian defeat' nor an 'American' or 'NATO' victory.
The Ukrainian nation itself could win handsomely simply by coming together and announcing itself to be one nation with no intent of allowing anyone or anything to separate them, cause the to fight, ever again.
Thanks for you comments. You should not have a problem posting next time - best Rob
Many thanks for that Richard - I'm grateful for your comments and I'll have a look at the links. I'm not sure if I've had an email from you before. Advice on the clobber report is especially welcome. Cheers.
Very nice recap of events. Well done.
As I mentioned in an email to you previously, there are ways of calculating Ukrainian losses. To repost what I mentioned to you here for others consideration:
Another Less-Than-Short Ukrainian Interlude...
Wherein I explain how I calculate Ukrainian losses and estimate the remaining length of the war...
https://richardstevenhack.substack.com/p/another-less-than-short-ukrainian
A Comment in Response to a Comment...
Wherein I calculate Russian losses in the Ukraine conflict...
https://richardstevenhack.substack.com/p/a-comment-in-response-to-a-comment
A Refresher On How To Read The Daily Russian Ministry of Defense "Clobber Report"...
Gotta remember the little details...
https://richardstevenhack.substack.com/p/a-refresher-on-how-to-read-the-daily
I also posted a similar piece on Andrei Martyanov's blog in a comment, which stimulated a discussion and an interesting post from another commentator. See the comments here:
Macgregor Talks Some Numbers...
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/07/macgregor-talks-some-numbers.html#disqus_thread
I also posted two days ago an analysis of what appears to me to be confirmation by the US DoD that Ukraine is running out of men, while attempting to make it seem like they have some huge force remaining:
Wherein the U.S. Department of Defense spills the beans...
They unwittingly confirm that the Ukraine military is on the verge of collapse...
https://richardstevenhack.substack.com/p/wherein-the-us-department-of-defense
Today Andrei Martyanov noted that the Russians have declare that 43,000 Ukrainians have been killed in
the last two months of the Ukraine so-called "counter-offensive". Andrei's comment:
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/08/this-and-that.html#disqus_thread
"Russian MoD gave the number of VSU losses (without foreign mercenaries and "advisers") and, WITHOUT VSU losses in the rear (get it?), since the start of "counteroffensive"--43,000 (in Russian). Here is the point I make constantly--MoD's data is extremely conservative and ONLY about what MoD can visually confirm. Many thousands of VSU personnel annihilated in the rear, such as bases, depots, barracks, command posts et al are not even counted in MoD losses reports. Now recall those hundreds of rear positions hit by Russian Army and you will get the idea on the scale of losses of VSU. "
This is what I covered in my cited articles as well - the KIA and WIA reported outside of the specific engagements.
I noted in response to Andrei's post as follows:
"43,000 losses over approximately two months - 43,000 / 60 - comes out to around 716 per day - which is about right given the daily "clobber reports". This is KIA only as Andrei points out and doesn't address wounded in action or WIA.
As my Substack article showed, the actual figure of KIA and WIA is well over 2,000 per day or 60-75,000 per month. This is the equivalent of 10-12 brigades per month. Even if Ukraine has 100 brigades remaining, as some claim, which is approximately 500,000 troops, they will lose them at the current rate within ten months and be combat and operationally useless in much less time. So Russia has essentially confirmed my estimate that the Ukrainian army will collapse in the next 3-6 months.
The US DoD has also confirmed this by letting slip the count of 153,000 Ukrainians involved in the so-called "counter-offensive". Ukraine can't have much more than that as immediate reserves to exploit any hypothetical (and extremely unlikely) breach. And whatever else remains of Ukraine's military - those hiding in cities like Odessa, Kharkiv and Kiev, and those patrolling the border with Belarus and elsewhere - are militarily irrelevant since they are nowhere near the front lines - but as Andrei notes, are also capable of being killed at any time."
Things are much worse in Ukraine than readers of even the Russian MoD reports, let alone the Western MSM, realize.