Ukraine Weekly Update

4th August 2023

This week the ground war in Ukraine has been relatively quiet though the number of Ukrainians dying has not fallen. The many Ukrainian drone attacks we have seen have diverted our eyes away from the two month long failed Ukrainian offensive and events in Niger could rival the Ukraine war for attention before too long as Western military intervention becomes a possibility. In the US, Sleepy Joe Biden will try to wriggle out of accusations that could lead to impeachment and Donald J Trump is becoming a Christ like figure who the US establishment is determined to nail to the cross. The fate of both is linked to that of Ukraine. Many thanks to you all for your comments, likes and subscriptions. (the above photo shows Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu inspecting the command post of Battlegroup Center).

Canine Hero

A Russian dog called Kuzmich is assisting the Russian military in the detection of UAVs. It has been taught to bark when hearing quadcopters. This was reported by Slavyangrad. Apologies to dog lovers who don’t have Telegram. Kuzmich is a medium sized dog that looks a little like a black Akita.

Russian Tank Heroes

In an action reminiscent of Michael Whitman’s Tiger attack on a British armoured column at Villers-Bocage in 1944¹, a single Russian tank defeated a column of Ukrainian armour in the Zaporizhe region. The tank crew have become heroes.

Ukrainian Tank Losses

According to Ukraine ground forces commander, Vlodymyr Karpenko, Ukraine has lost 1300 Infantry Fighting vehicles and 415 tanks since its offensive began on June 4th: reported in Sputnik.

Ukraine Casualties

It seems that estimates of Ukraine casualties in the SMO are being revised upwards on a regular basis. I have heard Colonel MacGregor talking of between 300,000 and 350,000 dead but I have no idea where he gets his figures from. The latest research I have seen was conducted by Ruslan Tatarinov whose findings are informed by obituaries on social networks. He estimates that 284,000 obituaries have been recorded but this would not include soldiers who have not yet been identified - so the true figure could be much higher. If we assume the normal ratio between dead and wounded of 3-1 (which may not be the case) this could amount to total casualties of close to a million. The Russian MoD claims that Ukraine has lost 43,000 killed or severely wounded since its offensive started on June 4th as well as 76 US M777 artillery systems and 84 self-propelled artillery systems of Western origin.

Russia Blocks Starlink?

Rybar is reporting on a familiar Ukrainian source (Magyar) who believes that the Russians have developed and are using technology that allows them to jam communications with Eldon Musk’s Starlink, which has been a vital resource for the Ukrainians. I have no confirmation of this but have included the story under the category of interesting speculation. This is not the first time I have heard this claim but repetition of claims does not guarantee accuracy. The Russian MoD is reporting that Ukrainian drones have been disabled ‘by electronic means’ and this report suggests that some Ukrainian drones rely on Starlink - so maybe there’s an element of truth in this. Starlink receivers are also installed on some unmanned boats. This article also carries the story of Magyar’s claims.

Ukraine Targets Civilians

I know this is nothing new but it is being reported from a number of sources that the Ukrainians have increased attacks on unambiguously civilian targets in Moscow (see below), Kursk, Donetsk, Crimea, Kherson, Kaluga, Taganrog (see below), Bryansk, Zaporizhe and Belgorod. On the morning of 31st July many settlements in Donetsk were targeted with mass shelling according to Rybar. At least two civilians were killed and six more injured.

The Sea War (image shows a Ukrainian unmanned boat)

Z Wants Escorts

Last week I reported that Zelensky had asked the US to escort grain carrying vessels in the Black Sea. But US National Security Adviser, John Kirby ruled that out because there is a danger that it could lead to World War 3 - reported by Slavyangrad.

Russian Ships Attacked

On August 1st the Ukrainians launched attacks in the Black Sea against Russian warships using un-manned boats which were destroyed before reaching their targets. The Russian military is reporting that the boats were guided by a MQ-9A reaper drone (possibly operated by Westerners). The boats appear to have been launched from the mouth of the Danube according to Pravda. Another unmanned boat was launched against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet on 1st/2nd August and was destroyed before finding its target according to the Russian MoD. On the night of August 4th a Russian warship was damaged at Novorossiysk naval base by an unmanned boat according to Pravda. A video of the ship being towed has appeared. This will be a great morale boost for the Ukrainians.

The Air War

Moscow

Three Ukrainian drones attacked the business sector in Moscow on the morning of 30th July. One of the drones got through and caused some damage to one building from which people were evacuated. There were no casualties according to Tass. There is some speculation that the damaged building was used by the Russian government. Drones attacked here again on the 1st August but were disabled by electronic means. One of these fell onto a non-residential building causing some damage to the façade. UN General Secretary Guterres has condemned all attacks on civilians. Doubtless he would have branded such attacks as terrorist if they had been directed at any country apart from Russia.

Crimea

About 25 drones attacked facilities in the Crimea on July 30th but they were either destroyed by air defence systems or disabled by electronic means. Crimea was also attacked on 4th August by 13 ‘airplane like’ drones all which were shot down or electronically disabled before they could cause any damage.

Kherson

According to the governor of Kherson region, 12 Stormshadow missiles attempting to damage the railway line to the Crimea were shot down by air defences. Some minor damage was caused by missile fragments falling to earth. This was reported by INDY on the MoA - 29th July - 271 - but I can’t find confirmation. INDY believes that the Russians have now learned how to intercept them effectively and efficiently using air to air missiles. (AAM). The Russian MoD report for the 29th July records that 7 Stormshadows were shot down along with 2 HIMARS and 2 upgraded S-200 missiles - but the report doesn’t indicate precisely where they were intercepted.

Patriots

Ukraine is calling for 12 Patriot or similar air defence systems according to the Guardian. I think that would cost around $18 billion or more. Ukraine currently has only 2 Patriot systems - well - it did at the time of writing.

Russian Air Forces Attack SBU HQ in Dnipro

The SBU building is thought to have contained many foreign advisors but the number of casualties has not been reported. Military Tube Today provides a short report here.

Taganrog

Using a modified S-200 missile, the Ukrainians attacked the port city of Taganrog near Rostov on Don. The missile was shot down but falling shrapnel fragments caused minor injuries to 15 people according to Sputnik.

Russian Drone/Missile Attacks

These are happening nearly every day. On August 1st Poltava and Sumy were attacked with Geraniums and explosions were heard in Kharkov - but I don’t know what targets were hit. All three areas are hosts to Ukrainian army units. I have seen reports that overnight on 1st/2nd August the port of Izmail on the Danube (Odesa) was attacked. Tass is reporting that three districts of Kiev were attacked and four large explosions were heard.

The Ground War

Abrams Tanks - Game Changer?

When the tanks arrive in September there will be an expectation among some that they will change the course of the war. But many of the features that make this tank so advanced will not be fitted to those being sent to Ukraine. The US will be sending the M1A1 version instead of the newer M1A2 version which has depleted uranium armour and better electronics, according to America’s Newsweek. The 31 M1A1 tanks the US is providing are less complicated to learn than the newer version. The US is not sending the newer version because these tanks are fitted with secret technology that could be captured by the Russians. Moreover, the newer tanks are highly technical, complicated and needy in terms of maintenance. This short article from Sputnik will tell you more.

Cluster Bombs - Poison Chalice?

Since Ukraine started using US cluster munitions Russia has not felt under any obligation to refrain from doing the same. Indeed the Russians, who have superior and more plentiful cluster munitions than those supplied by the US, have started using them, according to Russian Telegram channel - @rezervsvo. Another Telegram Channel is reporting that Ukrainian General Syrsky has said that the use of cluster munitions has not helped the Ukrainians because they are less effective than ordinary munitions and because their use has given Russia license to use their own cluster munitions which are causing them heavy casualties. Syrsky also admitted that the Ukrainian offensive has yielded little results.

The Russian Offensive?

There has been much speculation about a possible Russian offensive recently with different commentators holding opposing views on the matter. I have to admit that even though I understand the Russian’s attritional strategy, I am eager for them to finish the war quickly - for many reasons, including a concern that Ukraine will deliver something nasty that could escalate the conflict and undermine Russia’s capacity to achieve its objectives. Scott Ritter appears to be suggesting that Russia does not have sufficient forces mobilised to conquer the whole of Ukraine - if that’s what it wants to do. Colonel MacGregor, on the other hand appears to believe that the Russians have more forces than is apparent and that they can engage in ‘big arrow’ offensives to take the whole country once the Ukrainian army is sufficiently weakened. MacGregor also believes that Russia is taking things slowly to avoid provoking further NATO involvement.

But let’s face it, none of the military speculators from Dima, Weeb Union, Defence Politics Asia, Ritter and MacGregor (and all the others) actually knows what’s going to happen. Furthermore, maybe even the Russian military is not certain what it will do next in a battlefield situation that is by no means static (as many Western commentators seem to believe). In this situation, opportunities may arise that Russia will seek to take advantage of. This is what appears to have happened in the north. In the area west of Svatove and elsewhere, Ukrainian weaknesses have permitted the Russians to create and expand a bridgehead from which it may be possible to engage in a far reaching offensive. At the end of July this bridgehead was reported to be 30 km wide and 7 km deep.²

The Fronts

It is difficult to represent front line developments with any degree of accuracy because these are constantly changing and reports will sometimes contradict each other. Furthermore, I have no idea which reports are true and which are false. In this Update, I will provide some ‘snapshots’ of the main events of the week whilst providing links to some Sitreps for those who want more detail.

1st August 2023 - Svatove

On August 1st, Weeb Union gave his daily sitrep covering all fronts. He reported that the Ukrainians have taken back some of this bridgehead west of Svatove because the Russians do not have sufficient forces in the area. Only infantry has been deployed in the bridgehead but the Russians did not deploy tanks, armoured vehicles etc. and were therefore too weak to hold on the the position. I have no idea why this area hasn’t been reinforced by the Russians so as to expand the bridgehead. Are the Russians luring the Ukrainians into a trap here? I should say that while Weeb was reporting Ukrainian gains in this area Russian blogger, Podolyaka was reporting Russian gains.

Weeb suggested that the fronts were relatively quiet on this day but the Russian MoD reported 800 Ukrainian dead - which is slightly above the recent average of around 700 KIA. Other losses included: tanks 3; AFVs/IFVs 16; MLRS 1; Self Propelled Artillery Systems 10; Field Artillery Guns 6; Howitzers 5; Motor Vehicles 14; Ammo Dumps 4; Radar System 1.

If you compare this to July 27th (below), it was a quiet day:

KIA 886; tanks 28; AFVs/IFVa 39; Motor vehicles 15; Howitzers 9: Artillery systems 2; Ammunition dumps 2; Fuel Depots 3; Radar Stations 3; MLRS 1.

The amount of infantry dead may be high on this ‘quiet day’ because Ukraine is employing infantry centred tactics rather than employing the ‘armoured fists’ that have lost them many tanks and AFVs in the past.

Some reports suggest that the force of Ukrainian attacks has declined markedly this week as the Ukrainians prepare for the next big push. Yet on August 2nd the Ukrainians lost 925 KIA according to the MoD daily report. However, the amount of materiel lost was similar to that of yesterday which appears to support the idea that the Ukrainians are employing infantry centred tactics. The fact that the Russians appear to have started using cluster munitions could also explain these high casualties.

August 3rd - Zaporizhe

On this day Pravda reported that 3 Ukrainian brigades which had accumulated in preparation for an attack in the Zaporizhe region were decimated by Russian firepower. Yevgeny Balitsky, governor of the oblast said: "The enemy has practically lost the entire composition of the brigades, the survivors scattered along the forest belt.." Nearly 900 Ukrainians lost their lives on August 3rd, according to the Russian MoD. Only 575 Ukrainians were killed on the 4th August which suggests that there has been a lull.

Advances on the fronts have been miniscule from both sides this week though many Ukrainians and Russians have paid the blood price for these humble gains. If you would like some detail, here is Weeb Union’s brief Sitrep for 4th August.

The Economic War

Sanctions Packet Number 12

The EU has produced yet another sanctions package which will include the seizure of $200 billions of Russians assets. As I have said previously, this could backfire on the EU and the Euro as many countries lose confidence in both and may fear that their assets could be seized next. In consequence, countries could transfer their reserves to other currencies which cannot be seized.

Africa Gets Russian Grain

Russia has started transporting grain to Africa - in particular Burkina Fasu - according to Slavyangrad.

World Politics

Zelensky Says ‘Cool it’.

A nasty argument has broken out between Poland and Ukraine in relation to the import of cheap Ukrainian fruit (i.e. raspberries and currants) which is driving prices down for Poland’s own fruit growers - reducing their profits. The same problem occurred with cheap Ukrainian grain which was, in consequence, banned from Poland. Amidst these tensions, a Polish official criticised Ukraine for a lack of gratitude in relation to the massive assistance that Poland has provided the Ukraine since the start of the SMO. This prompted the Ukrainian Foreign Office to ‘summon’ the Polish ambassador - for a dressing down presumably. Then the Polish Prime Minister publicly criticised Ukraine for doing this. But as sometimes happens in these situations that have become heated, blows are traded until someone says ‘cool it’ - and on this occasion, according to Politico, the Great Z acted like the adult in the room. I think this demonstrates the tensions that must exist between Poland and Ukraine who are unlikely partners given their respective histories. I imagine that if more Polish people knew about Bandera and Ukrainian support for the Nazis when they invaded in 1941, support for Ukraine would not be so enthusiastic in Poland. After all, Poland suffered a great deal at the hands of the Nazis

But I think there must also be some frustration for donors of a lost cause when they realise that it is lost - because they must feel guilty that they led Ukraine to expect that it could work. So they can either be hard on themselves or on the country they have turned into a victim. They can either blame themselves, or they can blame Ukraine. Accusations of ingratitude are a form of blaming just as much as German criticisms of the Ukrainian Generals or criticism of Z by Joe Biden. This will be the same for all those countries who have let Ukrainians down. The fact is that for many, Ukraine has become an embarrassment; a sore that they can’t scratch off their faces; something they wish would go away. But their consciences; their liberal European and American consciences, are pushing them towards further donations that they must by now realise will not make any difference. They are victims of their own hubris really and not the first to think they could subdue Russia.

Hungary Votes Against Sweden

The Hungarian parliament has voted against allowing Sweden into NATO. Turkiye’s parliament will vote on the same thing in October.

Saudi Arabia To Host Peace Talks

Saudi Arabia is to host a ‘peace Summit’ on 5th/6th August which is being sponsored by Anthony Blinken and the US. Representatives from Brazil, China, India, the US, the UK, South Africa and 24 other nations have been invited but not Russia and Ukraine. Glen Deisen talks about it here on Indian TV. The Summit will discuss Ukraine’s peace deal which involves some bizarre conditions such as Russia’s return to 1991 borders, giving up the Donbass and Crimea. I honestly don’t know what to make of this, especially since Russia and Ukraine have not been invited. It could be yet another attempt by the West to get errant countries from the RoW on board with its Russo phobic agenda. In time, we will find out more. However, it is certain that Russia will not agree to any of this.

On July 31st Mexican President, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, said that Mexico will not participate in the negotiations on Ukraine without Russia. I wonder, could this be the start of a mini-revolt by the RoW, many of whose countries felt obliged to say ‘yes’ under uncomfortable US pressure. But many, like China, will feel obliged to attend in support of allies.

US Warmongers Promoted

In a move that will be disappointing for anyone wanting peace in Ukraine, US Neo-Con Victoria Newland has received a promotion that will give her a greater say in influencing US decisions in relation to the conflict - according to Zero Hedge. Her new role will be Deputy Secretary of State under Anthony Blinken. China hawk, Charles Q Brown, has also been promoted.

Ukrainian Offensive Narratives

Last week I suggested that it would be interesting to see what the West’s ‘story tellers’ or narrative creators would come up with to explain the defeat of Ukraine’s June 4th Offensive which has been in operation for two months now. The White House overcame the problem by saying that it hasn’t succeeded yet but will succeed soon. Now the Financial Times of London is offering a different approach by claiming that instead of advancing - as you do in the course of an offensive - the Ukrainians are wearing down the Russians with their artillery and slowly clearing the mines ready for some future ‘offensive’ operations. The paper judges this to be a success because the Ukrainians have lost fewer men and less materiel than they did when they attempted to advance during the first two weeks of June. Another way of expressing this would be to say that the Ukrainian offensive has failed so they are concentrating on holding their positions because they do not have the power to resume the offensive. The Financial Times’ approach, unlike that of the White House, denies that the offensive has failed so far. Rather, the newspaper has redefined the concepts of ‘success’ and ‘offensive’ so that the Great Z is able to say that Ukraine has achieved ‘very good results’ on the front line.

But hold on a second, these troops should be in Crimea by now, not two fields away from where they started two months ago. This is what John Helmer had to say about it. Winning, Helmer points put, has been redefined as not losing. And not losing is sufficient to create an appearance of success in the same sense that a non-league soccer team holding the Premier League Champions to a goalless draw at half time is deemed to be successful and there is still hope that they could go on to win in the second half. Therefore the supporters of the non-league side will have good morale and will buy their pints and pies to enjoy the rest of the match. Anyone who follows English soccer will know that the hopes of non-league sides facing Premier League Champions will not be high. And anyone following this conflict will know that any hope that the Ukrainians have of winning are very unlikely to be fulfilled. I would say that the non-league side’s hopes are at least possible of fulfilment whereas those of the Ukrainians are not. The most incredible thing about this narrative is not the fact that it is totally disingenuous but that most people will consider it credible. Hopefully, I am being a little harsh in my judgement of people here.

To be fair to the Ukrainians, they have no choice other than to continue in their attempts to convince their Western backers that they may just be able to pull this off - and even if the odds are stacked high against them, not losing or, more correctly, giving the appearance of not losing is about all they can do. For the Ukrainians, as for the West, losing is not an option that they will consider until the final whistle.

This is not only saddening; it is sickening because young and healthy males (as well as those not so young and healthy) are paying the price for this along with their families. But it appears that females are training and could enter the conflict soon.

Another narrative approach to the failed offensive, adopted by the British Express for example, is to ignore the fact that it failed by simply not mentioning it while promising a grand offensive against Crimea soon. This article in the Express reports that 2,000 Elite Ukrainian Commandos are training on Dartmoor (south west England) for an offensive operation against Crimea. This will ‘involve strikes from air, land and sea with Ukrainian commandos using technology to undermine and paralyse Russian troops’. This sounds as if it could have been concocted by the planners of the Dieppe Raid³ and has similar chances of success. Hundreds of long range missiles will also be involved.

This is simply a childish fantasy spouted by someone from the British military who is clearly masquerading as an adult. This senior UK military source said: ‘emphasis was being placed on using agile Nato tactics to help Ukrainian troops “shape the battle space” before striking at the heart of the enemy’’. Wow - if they are using ‘agile NATO military tactics’ they can’t possibly fail - can they.

I imagine that most of those reading this will know that without air superiority⁴ Ukraine could not possibly launch such an attack - and Ukraine will never attain air superiority over the Russians without full NATO involvement. The focus on Crimea is interesting because the West has been consistent in its stated desire to invade here since it would give it control of the Black Sea: an existential threat to Russia.

I should say that some Western media reports are focusing on the total failure of the Ukrainian offensive and the losses incurred.

The Blame Game

CNBC has published a report, allegedly based on the testimony of a White House insider, indicating that Sleep Joe is furious with the Great Z because the latter ignored advice to pull out of Bakhmut. In consequence, according to Biden, heavy losses were incurred which caused the June 4th Ukrainian offensive to fail.

The Emerging Multi-Polar World Order

The Russia-Africa Summit

In a unique demonstration that Russian isolation is a propaganda myth created by the West, the African delegation sang the Russian National Anthem at the end of the conference. Nice touch. The Summit could have been a much more important event in world politics than we currently appreciate in view of its impact on Africa and Africans attempting to break from the yoke of Western imperialism - as indicated by developments in Niger (see below).

Bolivia and Venezuela to join BRICS

This week Bolivia’s President announced that his country would be applying to join BRICS and Venezuela has submitted a formal application to join.

Crisis in Africa?

France’s influence in Africa has been on the wane for years and the latest of those countries who no longer want French ‘interference’ is Niger where the ‘National Council for the Defence of the Fatherland’ took to the streets after the fall of the government in a military coup. The only flag to be seen apart from the national flag is that of Russia. So good to see. But what was even better was to hear the crowd’s chants of ‘Down with Macron’; ‘Long live Putin’ and ‘Long live Russia’. French and Italian diplomats have announced the evacuation of French people from the country. Berkina Faso and Mali, who are neighbours of Niger, have announced that they will defend Niger if France or the West intervenes. Niger and Berkina Faso have stopped exporting gold and uranium to France: the latter is important for France’s nuclear industry. Mali has just announced that it has dropped French as the official language.

This could become one of the most important global developments we have seen for a long time. Ukraine Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak is the first out of the blocks to accuse Russia of organising the coup in Niger - which is nonsense as far as I can see. But what’s actually happening is that Africa is freeing itself from the last shackles of imperialism to become an important player in the emerging multi-polar world order. And Russia has had a role in this by providing inspiration as the West’s number one adversary. It is probably no coincidence that the coup occurred so soon after the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg where Russia talked about guaranteeing the sovereignty of African nations.

Kambale Musavuli, a political commentator and expert on African affairs, believes that the recent coup in Niger was an attempt to shake off French dominance and had massive popular support. TeleSur has broadcast an interview with Musavuli here. He calls for Africa to rise up and unite against the West. The interview is 12 minutes long and the sound is poor. The Africans are very much aware of what the West did to Libya and Gaddafi and will not let it happen to Niger or any other countries. The fact that Niger possesses large amounts of Uranium which are currently being withheld could precipitate a hot conflict between Africa and the West. Time will tell.

If you would like to find out more about the history and politics behind this story have a look at this from Garland Nixon who is interviewing African-American historian Dr. Gerald Horne (1hr 11 mins). This map may be useful. These developments in Africa demonstrate that the Ukraine war is part of a wider conflict between the forces behind the emerging multi-polar world order and the Old West. Russia’s stand against NATO in Ukraine is inspiring much of the RoW. This article in Global Research explores the possibility of a Franco-African war. Maria Zakharova has called for dialogue in Niger to restore peace and the rule of law.

I have seen reports on Telegram that Nigeria is preparing to invade Niger along with neighbour Benin. See https://t.me/Slavyangrad/5. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has the authority, according to its peacekeeping function, to invade other countries in the community. I suspect that the West is pulling the strings here (especially France). But this could result in a civil war involving a number of countries since Burkina Faso and Mali have declared support for Niger.

The deposed president of Niger, Mr. Bazuma, has called on the US to help him regain power and "restore democracy." Note that he did not call upon the people of Niger, or Emmanuel Macron or China or anyone else. This shows that Mr. Buzuma knows who is in charge. This report was on Telegram.

Senegal and Congo - More African Protests

Anti-French protests have erupted in Congo where the people want a UN force to leave after spending 20 years in the country. In Senegal protest erupted after the main opposition party, PASTEF, was banned and its leader arrested. Protesters burned the French flag.

Well that’s all for another week in which the chances of a wider global military conflict have most certainly increased.

Best wishes

Rob

1. There are plenty of documentaries on YouTube about this action including this one.

2. My own view is that the Russians have different options and will proceed in accordance with the developing military situation by employing the options most appropriate to what’s happening on the ground. In other words, maybe the Russians have a flexible approach to the Ukraine conflict that makes it impossible for any of us to predict what they will do - beyond achieving the objectives they have set themselves. The objectives are fixed but the ways in which they attempt to achieve those objectives are not. But obviously political considerations will also impact on Russia’s military decisions regarding the SMO - and in this respect flexibility is also required since the political situation is also far from static.

3. The Dieppe Raid - or Operation Jubilee - was conducted by Canadian troops and British Special Forces against the French seaside town of Dieppe in 1942. Patrick Bishop has written a good account of it in Operation Jubilee Penguin 2022. Figures such as Lord Lovat and Louis Mountbatten were involved in the planning. It was a total disaster and predictably so.

4. According to the Congressional Research Service, Ukraine has around 130 planes, while Russia has 1,391.