The catastrophe that is the middle east continues to dominate media of all sorts and the risk of escalation appears to be scarily high as the US sends four aircraft carriers into the Mediterranean. Sleepy Joe Biden is still inflaming the situation and is being seen as a liability by more and more of his Democrat colleagues. I imagine that many of his voters now wished they’d elected Trump. Many commentators, such as the Duran, are concerned that the neo-cons will get their war against Iran. Meanwhile, Republican Mike Johnson, a ‘Ukraine Skeptic’ and Trump supporter, has been elected Speaker of the House of Representatives. In his maiden speech, he referred to Israel but made no mention of Ukraine. The Israelis have yet to enter Gaza, after receiving warnings from Arab countries, such as Iran and Turkiye, that it may not be such a good idea. But the Israelis could be holding back until the US has built up its forces. According to some reports, the Israelis are killing Gazan children by the thousands due to their indiscriminate bombing techniques1. In the light of all this, the Great Z and his colleagues must be getting very nervous that the plug may be pulled. There are already signs that this is happening, as I will discuss. On the Ukraine battlefronts, the Russians appear determined to take Avdeevka and the Ukrainians equally determined to hold on in accordance with instructions from Z.
Daria Dugina - Was the CIA involved in her Death?
This is a photograph of Alexander Dugin, the Russian philosopher, attending his daughter, Daria’s funeral. He was the intended victim of the Ukrainian terrorists who killed her in a car bomb attack on the 20th August 2022 just outside of Moscow. Dugin appears focused and composed, yet underneath he must be hurting badly and, perhaps, feeling ‘survivor’s guilt’ because he should be in that coffin instead of her.
The Washington Post has published an article that exposes the extent of CIA involvement in the development of the Ukrainian security services responsible for this murder and others. It does not admit any direct involvement but some commentators, including Andrei Martyanov, are not convinced. The Russian intelligence services will know who the perpetrators are and will seek to bring them to justice, whatever their nationality. Larry Johnson believes that the timing of the article in a paper known to be a mouthpiece of the CIA, appears to suggest that the CIA knows that the war is lost and is now attempting to portray itself in a good light as a benign reformer, according to Sputnik. Now there are rumours that Z is hatching a plot to blow up the German embassy in Kiev and blame it on the Russians. I have no idea if this rumour is true but the desperation required to commit such an outrage is definitely in place.
$10,000 Dollars to Live
Ukrainian men are paying up to $10,000 dollars to escape Ukraine and avoid military service, according to Sputnik. I have no idea how many men are involved in this but I would be surprised if more than a small percentage of current Ukrainian candidates for the military are motivated by patriotism. That’s just an impression based on what I have read on some Ukrainian Telegram Channels which suggest that there are very few Ukrainian volunteers left.
Z - Just 500 Metres a Day Please
Z is asking his troops to advance just 500 metres a day, reducing his request from one kilometre a day in case this was seen as too demanding :
Ukraine needs results every day…We need to resist the Russian assaults, kill the occupiers and move forward. We must advance by at least a kilometer, at least 500 meters, every day. We must keep moving forward in order to improve the Ukrainian positions and put pressure on the occupiers
This, he said, will encourage our allies to provide more support (according to RT). Oleksyi Arestovych, a former adviser to The Great Z, has accused him of delusions of grandeur and omnipotence. You can read more in Zero Hedge.
Ukraine Selling Western Weapons to the Middle East
An investigation carried out by the DPR shows that Ukraine has been selling ammunition and missiles to the Middle East for more than a year. It is speculated, though not known, that some of these supplies are currently being used against the Israeli army.
Shell Shortage
Last week, I mentioned that Z had been told to economise on shells because Ukraine will now be competing with Israel for ordnance. Now I am seeing confirmation of this from Ukrainian sources. Many 155mm shells previously destined for Ukraine are being sent to Israel and the counter-attacks on the flanks of Bakhmut/Artemovsk have been suspended in order to preserve shells. Some believe that after a month of fighting the Ukrainian army could even collapse in consequence of shell shortages. According to another Ukrainian source they are consuming 250% more shells daily than they are receiving from the West. This source estimates that the Ukrainians will run out of shells in one and a half months - deep into the winter. Even the Ukraine PM is talking about shell shortages. European countries are falling behind in fulfilling their promises to provide 1 millions shells to Ukraine by March, according to RT. To add insult to injury, 155 mm shells are now costing 50% more due to increases in production costs (including energy costs) at Rheinmetall where they are produced in Germany.
Col-Gen Viktor Afzalov Appointed Head of Russian Aerospace Forces
Afzalov, who has already been performing this role after taking over from Surovikin some time ago, has now been appointed to the post.
Aid Reduction
Following the shell shortage above, the Ukrainians have also suffered a considerable reduction in US military aid, which fell by 93.5% compared to the first half of the year, as illustrated by the above graph. As you can see, the figure for this October is the lowest since the SMO began. Such figures must be worrying to Ukrainians. If further funding is not being considered until the end of November, the situation could get much worse.
David T. Pyne, a former US Department of Defense officer, told Sputnik, in an outburst of realism, that:
Senior Western government leaders and intelligence officials are confronted with the stark reality that Ukraine has exhausted its counteroffensive capabilities and thus its forces must be redeployed to more defensible positions to guard against an expected Russian winter offensive which they believe could succeed in taking back significant amounts of Ukrainian territory over the next few to several months.
Furthermore:
I would think that Ukraine can expect to receive far fewer artillery systems and munitions from the US in the future as those systems are now in short supply and the outbreak of the war in Israel has shown the need for the US to maintain a significant reserve stockpile of such munitions rather than ship them all to Ukraine to fight an unwinnable war against the Russian Federation.
But the Ukrainians are expecting 18 billions Euros of aid from the EU in 2024, according to RT. However, this amount may be reduced to only 9 billions according to this source.
US $61.4 Billions Funding to Ukraine?
In spite of this aid reduction, Sleepy Joe Biden could yet come to the rescue. He will be introducing a $106 military spending package to congress in which funds to Taiwan, Israel and Ukraine will be lumped together in the same bill. The lion’s share, $61.4 billions, will go to Ukraine. This is a clever way of getting funding to Ukraine because it is thought that no one will vote against funding Israel which is also part of the package - according to a source quoted in Sputnik. We shall see. Republican Senator Eric Schmitt has said that congress will not pass the funding package because it is obviously a ploy to get aid to Ukraine when many could object. Some will be concerned that Ukraine will be getting the lion’s share which, in their view, is not fair to Israel. It is said that the Senate will have the bill ready for Thanksgiving (November 23rd). New Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, has insisted that funds for Israel and Ukraine should be the subject of separate bills. He also asked the White House to explain its ultimate goal in the Ukraine conflict.
A recent investigation carried out by Ukraine Customs and the MoD has found that one third of the humanitarian aid intended for the Ukrainian military did not arrive - no surprise there! The Great Z has asked reporters not to talk about such things.
Ukraine Labour Market Collapsing
Job applications are down 20% on last year, according to the Center for Economic Strategy. This is due to high turnover of applicants, mobilization and the fear (especially among men) that they will come to the attention of enlistment officers and sent to the front. This situation is making it difficult for employers to recruit the specialists they need.
Ireland to Review Ukraine Housing Bill
The state of Ireland is currently paying 1.5 billions Euros to house the 70,000 refugees who have fled there from Ukraine. But the housing bill that facilitated this expenditure is now under review because the Republic can’t afford it. You can read more here.
Ukraine Terror Attacks (attacks designed to kill civilians)
DPR
On October 20th a civilian was killed by artillery fire in Donetsk. The following day, 4 MLRS rockets were launched at the Budennovsky district of Donetsk City injuring four people. Here's some footage of the damage. Throughout the day, areas such as the Gorlovka, Makiivka, Zaitsevo, Shirokaya Gully, Petrovsky, Kirovsky, Kyivsky, and Kuibyshevsky districts of Donetsk also came under fire, resulting in damage to civilian infrastructure. No information about casualties has been reported. Three cluster shells were launched at Donetsk on the 23rd October but no casualties were reported. A residential building in the Kuibyshev was also damaged by shells but again no casualties were reported. On the 24th October, according to Rybar:
Ukrainian formations have again carried out massive shelling of settlements in the DPR. Residential buildings and infrastructure facilities have been damaged, with casualties. At least one person died and three were injured.
On the 25th October two more civilians were injured by shelling and another was injured on the 26th. On the 27th, a residential building in Kalininsky district was struck with six cluster shells. Some people are thought to be buried under the rubble according to one report. The village of Kuibyshevsky also came under attack from cluster shells.
Rostov
On the 21st October, Rostov was attacked with missiles, all of which were shot down by air defences. The same thing happened on the 24th October but I have no further details.
Belgorod
Belgorod suffered artillery attacks on the 23rd October. The districts of Borisov Grayvoronsky, Krasnoyaruzhsky, and Shebekinsky were all affected but I have no information about damage or casualties. On the same day, a drone was shot down in the Yakovlevsky urban district - according to the Two Majors. Another report claims that the region suffered 50 strikes of different types (artillery, drone, missile) in 24 hours. Kozinka in Grayvoron urban district and Novaya Tavolzhanka both came under artillery fire on October the 25th and other regions suffered more shelling the following day.
Kursk
On the 25th October, an explosive device was dropped from a drone over Tyotkino causing slight injuries to a civilian. Later in the day, in the village of Popovo-Lezhachi, Glushkovsky district, seven shell impacts were recorded, resulting in one damaged car. The neighboring village of Tetkino also came under attack, but fortunately, no injuries were reported. In the village of Kozino, Rylsky district, a village club suffered damage, but no one was injured. In the village of Gorodishche, three residential buildings, a gas pipe, and power lines were damaged by shelling. On October 26th, several districts were attacked once more, causing damage to gas pipelines and electricity supplies. But no casualties were reported. The nuclear power plant at Kurchatov (photographed above) was targeted with three drones on the same day. Two were destroyed en route while the third hit a warehouse causing minor damage.
The Sea War
Crimea
On October 20th a missile was shot down over the sea near Lyubimovka, according to the Two Majors. On the 22nd, two Neptune missiles were intercepted near Sevastopol, 60 kms from the coast and heading for the Crimean Bridge. On October 24th, according to Sevastopol Governor Mikhail Razvozhaev:
Loud sounds are in the outer harbor is the Black Sea Fleet repelling a possible attack by underwater sabotage forces and enemy assets.
According to RT, three unmanned boats were destroyed though it is not clear whether these were travelling on the water or beneath it.
Sevastopol was attacked by missiles again on the 25th October but all were shot down by air defences.
The Air War
Russian Aerospace Excels.
The Russian Aerospace forces have shot down 17 of Ukraine’s Mig 29 Aircraft in just 10 days, according to Sputnik, which is testimony to Russian air superiority. In addition, Sergei Shoigu claimed that Russia’s air defence systems destroyed 24 Ukrainian jets in just five days. b writes about this on the MoA (25th October). The comments section provides some discussion of possible reasons for this increased attrition rate including the introduction of the SU-57 fighter jet and the combination of S-400 missiles with the A-50 long range radar detection aircraft which can identify targets not seen by ground radar systems.
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks (Map)
22nd/23rd October Overnight
Drones sightings and explosions have been reported over Kiev, according to Slavyangrad. Odessa and Kirovograd also came under attack. Some are claiming that the drones used were not Geraniums but a new and different type. They could have been Italmas drones, according to Pravda. Slavyangrad is reporting an underground explosion that was felt (rather than heard) throughout Odessa indicating that a large subterranean ammunition dump was hit.
23rd/24th October Overnight
Overnight, Russian "Geraniums" attacked Odessa region. Explosions were heard in Chernomorskoye and Belgorod-Dnestrovskoye. The drones could have been heading towards Shkolny Airfield. The airfield at Starokonstantinov in Khmelnitsky region was also attacked along with Vinnytsyia region.
24th/25th October Overnight
Vinnitsia, Cherkassy, Umany, Kiev, Kirovograd and Khmelnytsky regions were all attacked with drones overnight. The Starokonstantinov Airfield, which is one of the bases for Ukrainian Su-24s, was hit yet again. In addition, Russian missiles hit the territory of an industrial zone in occupied Zaporozhye.
Reports also indicate a massive drone raid in the Poltava region: in the vicinity of the Mirgorod military airfield, where the 831st Tactical Aviation Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with Su-27 fighters, is stationed.
25th/26th October Overnight
Overnight, Russian drones attacked a large Ukrainian ammunition depot in Khmelnitsky region, south west of Kiev. Rybar provides some footage of the explosions here. Kiev and Umman were also attacked.
Ukrainian Missile/Drone Attacks
Novovoronezh (Voronezh Oblast)
On October 21st, a Ukrainian missile headed for the nuclear power plant at Novovoronezh was shot down.
Bryansk
On October 25th, 4 ‘aircraft type’ drones were shot down and caused no damage. In the afternoon of the same day the villages of Belaya Berezka and the Klimovsky district were targeted.
The Ground War
Ukraine losses
w/e 13th October: Casualties: 5300 killed and wounded (757 per day); equipment losses = 299.
w/e 20th October: Casualties: 5830 killed and wounded (832 per day); equipment losses = 387 (includes 48 boats)
w/e 27th October: Casualties: 5585 killed and wounded (797 per day); equipment losses = 253
The Ukrainians lost 1170 men killed and wounded on 23rd October according to the Russian MoD report (Part One; Part Two). This figure is 5 fewer than the bloodiest day of last week.
The Fronts
Avdeevka
Avdeevka is certainly the busiest of the fronts according to many. Reports are coming in that testify to the intensity of the fighting there and the determination of the Russians to surround the city. According to Simplicius, Ukrainian sources are claiming KIA losses of 1,700 per day. For some time, I have wondered why the Russians have not put more effort into eliminating the bases from which the Ukrainians have continued to murder the citizens of Donetsk. There are many reasons for this, I know, including the density of the fortifications, so I am not criticising. Some military experts from the field of battle, including Russell Bentley, who once served in the DPR military, who suggested that: ‘The final battle of the Donbass War will be fought on the edges of Donetsk’. He and some of his military colleagues have been saying this for years but none believe that a victory here will happen soon. Avdeevka rather than Bakhmut, they say, will be Ukraine’s Stalingrad. The Great Z has insisted that Avdeevka be defended so as not to repeat the shameful defeat at Bakhmut. According to the Military Chronicle, the garrison at Avdeevka is being increased from 8,000 to 30,000 men, which may suit the Russians. This robbing Peter to pay Paul will have repercussions elsewhere on the fronts.
On October 24th Russia won its battle for the ‘slag heap’ or ‘rubbish dump’ near the coke plant in Avdeevka. They raised a flag there. At the end of the week, the Russians continued to advance slowly.
Kherson
On the weekend, the Ukrainians still had forces in the village of Kyrinki on the left bank of the Dnieper but these are now subject to heavy Russian fire and suffering low morale, according to Rybar. By the 24th October the forces in Kyrinki were pushed back to the right (west) bank but some troops returned the following day.
Kupyansk
The area around Kupyansk has been massively reinforced this week and the Ukrainians have been busy counter-attacking but with little success. On the 24th October, Russia launched a massive attack on the town of Sinkovka with heavy artillery, MLRS systems and tactical aircraft. On the same day the Russians repelled at least 8 Ukrainian counter-attacks, according to the Russian MoD and on the 25th October a further 15 attacks were repelled.
Zaporizhzhe - Vremyevka Ledge
On the 25th October, the Military Chronicle reported increased Russian offensive action in this direction. It is claimed that the Ukrainian forces here are depleted, exhausted and ready to retreat. The Russians continue to advance in the forest belt north of Priyutnoye.
Zaporizhzhe - Verbove - Rabotino
This direction continues to be a catastrophe for the Ukrainians. On the 25th and 26th October they lost 20 armoured vehicles (including 7 tanks) in failed assaults, according to Dima who believes that many of the Ukrainian forces are being withdrawn, leaving a small defensive force behind.
Artemovsk
Fighting continued here this week but with less intensity than hitherto.
The Economic War
Russian Fertilizer
Russian fertilizer being held at ports in Latvia, Estonia and Belgium are being blocked from export, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry . The ministry suggested that the holding countries should export the 96,000 tons of fertilizer to poor countries who are in need of it.
Sanctions Package Number 12
The latest EU sanctions package is scraping the very bottom of the barrel to include buttons, nails and needles, according to RT. This was Lithuania’s inspired contribution to the sanctions war. The new package could also include a ban on Russian diamonds.
Russian Debt-GDP Ratio At Historic Low
This shows how little the sanctions have affected Russia. Russia’s debt is $343.4 billions compared to the US’s debt of $32.91 trillions.
Nord Stream Two
According to German MP, Steffen Kotre of AfD, it is essential that Germany has access to Russian gas through Nord Stream Two in order to avoid deindustrialization - as reported in Sputnik.
World Politics
Slovakia
The new Slovak PM, Robert Fico has announced the end of military aid to Ukraine. He also said that any sanctions on Russia they are asked to implement will be first scrutinised to ascertain their likely impact on his own country.
The UN
The above cartoon sums up the US’s role as chief warmonger when it twice vetoed proposals for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Hat’s Off Please
A Russian traveler was apprehended as part of his welcome to Estonia, because he was wearing - wait for it - a Russian Hat. He was fined $426 because this hat had come from an ‘aggressor state’. Do you sometimes get the impression that virtue signaling is replacing rationality as a guide to human action? I do.
Finland
Russia has terminated its agreement of April 2012 on cross border cooperation with Finland - according to Tass. Well, that’s the least it could do given the way the Finns have treated their countrymen recently. The Russians will remember that the Finns sided with the Nazis in World War Two. The Finns cooperated with Hitler’s aim to starve Leningrad to death - I hope those in modern St. Petersburg will remember this.
Switzerland
The pro-neutrality Swiss People’s Party has won the recent election with 28.6% of the vote. Some Swiss politicians of the previous ruling party had been promoting an alliance of sorts with NATO, support for Ukraine and a relaxation of immigration. The People’s Party wants none of these things and will insist that the population in Switzerland does not exceed 10 millions. This is good news for Russia.
Hungary - Sweden - NATO
Just when Turkiye appears to be succumbing to the pressure exerted on it to allow Sweden into NATO, the Hungarian parliament has postponed discussion of the issue. This reticence may have been inspired by offensive remarks made by Swedish politicians about Hungary - according to Tass.
Minsk
The Eurasian Security Conference was convened in Minsk (Belarus) on the 26th October where Sergei Lavrov spoke of the need to ‘sew Eurasia into a unified space to face common challenges in the name of peace and prosperity of all its peoples’ according to Tass. Detail of the speech can be found here.
The Emerging Multi-Polar World Order
Biden and the New World Order
b of the Moon of Alabama has written a very good article about delusional statements made by US politicians, including Biden and Blinken, regarding the need for a new world order and the key role that the US must play in this. Biden recently said:
We were in a post-war period for 50 years where it worked pretty damn well, but that’s sort of run out of steam. Sort of run out of steam. It needs a new — a new world order in a sense, like that was a world order. (b’s emphasis)
This amounts to a huge admission that the current world order with the US at its centre, is no longer working - which is very significant admission. The RoW, BRICS countries and others will have taken note of this. It appears to be an admission of fallibility that we have not encountered before.
Back in February 2021, Anthony Blinken opined:
The world doesn’t organize itself. When we’re not engaged, when we don’t lead, then one of two things happens: either some other country tries to take our place, but probably not in a way that advances our interests and values, or no one does, and then you get chaos.
I don’t think this was true then but is certainly not true now. The US world order ran out of steam long before Blinken made this statement so was not best placed to lead the world. The US’s place will not be taken by a single country as Blinken feared and Unipolarity will not continue. But it will be replaced by multi-polarity, as Putin predicted a long time ago.
Putin and the New World Order
In his famous Munich speech in 2007, Putin was critical of the US’s disdain for international law and its leadership:
One state and, of course, first and foremost the United States, has overstepped its national borders in every way. This is visible in the economic, political, cultural and educational policies it imposes on other nations. Well, who likes this? Who is happy about this?
Of course this is true since more than half the world has now become critical of the US and its foreign policies.
During his speech, Putin also made the following prescient statement:
The combined GDP measured in purchasing power parity of countries such as India and China is already greater than that of the United States. And a similar calculation with the GDP of the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – surpasses the cumulative GDP of the EU. And according to experts this gap will only increase in the future. There is no reason to doubt that the economic potential of the new centres of global economic growth will inevitably be converted into political influence and will strengthen multipolarity.
And this is where we are now.
Lome Peace and Security Forum (Africa)
The first meeting of this African forum took place in Togo over the weekend. The forum discussed ways in which countries can avoid coups and develop democracy throughout Africa. It concluded that foreign interference and the geopolitical interests of the great powers constitute barriers to these aims.
Maniac of the Week
There will always be plenty of candidates for the maniac award but this week it must go to President of Latvia, Edgars Rinkevics. Edgars wants to close the Baltic Sea to Russian shipping because he suspects that the Russians were involved in damaging a gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia. What do you think will happen if you try to do that, you idiot? These people are not only incompetent: they are downright dangerous. It has to be said.
Israel’s Economy Minister comes in at a close second when he said: ‘Israel has a very clear message to our enemies. We are saying to them, look what’s happening in Gaza - you are going to get the same treatment if you attack us. We are going to wipe you off the face of the earth (my emphasis). This is a clear statement of an intention to commit war crimes in Gaza and elsewhere. Furthermore, Barkat has now placed a massive target on this own chest.
That’s it for another week. Many thanks for your views, likes, comments and subscriptions. Apologies for any of the links that don’t work for you. Best Rob
Some believe the killings are deliberate and the bellicose language spluttered by Israeli politicians, such as Nir Barkat, lends support to this view. But if reports of the number of buildings damaged (i.e. 29,000) are correct this is without doubt a reckless over-reaction by the Israelis who must know that hundreds or even thousands of civilians are being killed. Some will see this as a war crime.
Thanks for the summary. Given what's happened since you uploaded it, let us hope you are in a position to provide us with another excellent synopsis of the next seven days.
Thank you for the reminder of Putin's 2007 speech, which is probably as significant as Martin Luther's contribution to the Roman Catholic hegemon way back when. I've copied and pasted that part of the essay - with attribution (although I have no plans to ever publish) - into my history project.
I also agree that 'virtue signaling' is not really a form of morality. It may be more of an indication of the real separation between the governing class from the governed, which in a strange way suggests that the American people are as much subject to the imperial centre, currently based in Washington DC, as the rest of us! Just a thought.
By the way, the man with the best analysis of the Middle East crisis is Alastair Crooke, whose latest says it all:
Escalations Cannot Be Stopped – The White House Is Rattled; Escalations Might All Fuse Into ‘One’
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/10/26/escalations-cannot-be-stopped-the-white-house-is-rattled-escalations-might-all-fuse-into-one/
Wide-spread Middle East war is a virtual certainty at this point.