Thanks for the summary. Given what's happened since you uploaded it, let us hope you are in a position to provide us with another excellent synopsis of the next seven days.
Thank you for the reminder of Putin's 2007 speech, which is probably as significant as Martin Luther's contribution to the Roman Catholic hegemon way back when. I've copied and pasted that part of the essay - with attribution (although I have no plans to ever publish) - into my history project.
I also agree that 'virtue signaling' is not really a form of morality. It may be more of an indication of the real separation between the governing class from the governed, which in a strange way suggests that the American people are as much subject to the imperial centre, currently based in Washington DC, as the rest of us! Just a thought.
Thanks for that. It was an epic speech wasn't it. I'm not sure what you are referring to that may prevent me from providing my next update. Lots of things have happened but can you be more specific please. Wokeness (which includes virtue signaling) has a complex history but it is being used by the ruling class to control us - no doubt. Virtue signaling is really a 'pretend' morality for shallow people who want to give others the impression that they are moral in some sense. As for the imperial centre you refer to, I just read an article by Black Mountain Analysis which provides a neat history of the development of what some call the Deep State and how it operates. I would recommend it even though its quite long and assumes that you have read other instalments of his work. https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/economics-and-empires-5. You may know of it already. I should say that anything I publish here is available for anyone to quote with a reference to me. There's really not much that is original in my work, however. In the Update, I try not to provide too much of me. Cheers.
Response to Rob Campbell's "Ukraine Weekly Update"
"Do you sometimes get the impression that virtue signaling is replacing rationality as a guide to human action?"
LOL It always has. That's the purpose of morality and ethics: to replace rational thinking with RULES.
As for Biden's statement about a new world order, he wasn't making an admission. He was advocating for a new world NEOCON order. The previous world order was multipolar - the US and the Soviet Union/China. He wants a US unipolar "(US) rules-based order." He's not going to get it but he and the neocons will keep trying.
Which brings us to Israel. With four carrier battle groups in the Middle East, the US intends a war. Not just a "deterrence" - an outright war. You don't put that many CBGs unless that is the intent. The US is going to attack at least Hezbollah and probably Syria and Iran as well eventually. How it will kick off is uncertain, but is probably dependent on Israel going into Gaza and then Hezbollah attacking Israel.
Both of the latter are near-certainties. Some analysts - Scott Ritter is one - keep saying that Biden is telling Israel not to go into Gaza. Bullcrap. That is Biden doing CYA. Biden and Netanyahu have made a deal in which Israel expels the Palestinians and the US deals with Hezbollah. "I am on record for many years" - as Andrei says - predicting that eventuality.
It was inevitable. Israel and the neocons want Iran gone, that can't happen until Hezbollah is gone, and that can't happen unless the US does the heavy lifting for Israel against Hezbollah.
The problem for Israel and the US now is that all of the opposing parties are far stronger than they were in 2006, the last time Israel tried to remove Hezbollah. Hezbollah has enough missiles to do major damage to Israel, and Iran has enough long-range precision missiles (between 374-500) to both hit Israel and all US bases in the region.
Further, if this goes as planned, Syria, Turkey and possibly Egypt will probably get involved. In that eventuality, neither the US nor Israel can prevent Israel from being destroyed and possibly overrun. This could well be the end of the "Israel experiment", with the bulk of Israelis fleeing the country (if they even can in the middle of this sort of war.)
Then, of course, the real threat emerges: Israel has already threatened, as noted in your article, to use nuclear weapons. If it does that, it is likely that Pakistan will attack Israel - although the analysts saying that haven't noted that Pakistan can not reach Israel with its missiles, which is why Pakistan allegedly offered them to Turkey.
I view it as possible that Russia itself would intervene to prevent this by destroying Israel's nuclear arsenals using long-range missiles like the Kinzhal and Zircon (with conventional warheads which could penetrate Israel's launch site bunkers in the Negev), or possibly by using the S-400 air defense systems in Syria or Russian ships in the Med to destroy them on launch.
That of courses raises the risk that the US would engage Russia directly. And then we have WWIII with nukes.
Grab your popcorn. But first buy a one-way ticket to somewhere in the Southern Hemisphere. They always said Armageddon would occur in the Middle East. As Andrei Martyanov likes to say, "Well, here you go! You voted for it, you got it!"
Thanks for your comments Richard. I have to say that virtue signaling is not really a form of morality is it. Anyway, if you think all this is going to happen you must be worried. Of course it could happen but since we don't really know I prefer to remain optimistic. Thanks for the link to Crooke who I have been following now and then.
Your quoted casualty figures pretty well match my own guesstimates. At those sorts of levels the UAF is burning through the combat manpower of around 4 brigades per week. That means it would lose its entire manpower in teeth arms every 4 to 5 months. It is said that Ukraine is now burning through its fourth "army". I wonder how many they have left?
It's not only manpower they are running short of. As I said in the Update, even Ukrainian sources are concerned about the shell shortage. Richard Steven Hack did an article on casualty figures some time ago which is worth a look. The figures I have are from the Russian MoD but these are probably underestimates as Richard shows.
Thanks for the summary. Given what's happened since you uploaded it, let us hope you are in a position to provide us with another excellent synopsis of the next seven days.
Thank you for the reminder of Putin's 2007 speech, which is probably as significant as Martin Luther's contribution to the Roman Catholic hegemon way back when. I've copied and pasted that part of the essay - with attribution (although I have no plans to ever publish) - into my history project.
I also agree that 'virtue signaling' is not really a form of morality. It may be more of an indication of the real separation between the governing class from the governed, which in a strange way suggests that the American people are as much subject to the imperial centre, currently based in Washington DC, as the rest of us! Just a thought.
Hi Lantern Dude,
Thanks for that. It was an epic speech wasn't it. I'm not sure what you are referring to that may prevent me from providing my next update. Lots of things have happened but can you be more specific please. Wokeness (which includes virtue signaling) has a complex history but it is being used by the ruling class to control us - no doubt. Virtue signaling is really a 'pretend' morality for shallow people who want to give others the impression that they are moral in some sense. As for the imperial centre you refer to, I just read an article by Black Mountain Analysis which provides a neat history of the development of what some call the Deep State and how it operates. I would recommend it even though its quite long and assumes that you have read other instalments of his work. https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/economics-and-empires-5. You may know of it already. I should say that anything I publish here is available for anyone to quote with a reference to me. There's really not much that is original in my work, however. In the Update, I try not to provide too much of me. Cheers.
Merely a facetious remark based on the possiblity of WWIII. Censorship is the norm in situtions like that.
Thanks for the Black Mountain Analysis prompt, have seen references to that site but never gone there. Will do now. Thanks.
I thought that may have been it but it could also have been something I've missed while taking the hound for a walk. Best Rob
By the way, the man with the best analysis of the Middle East crisis is Alastair Crooke, whose latest says it all:
Escalations Cannot Be Stopped – The White House Is Rattled; Escalations Might All Fuse Into ‘One’
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/10/26/escalations-cannot-be-stopped-the-white-house-is-rattled-escalations-might-all-fuse-into-one/
Wide-spread Middle East war is a virtual certainty at this point.
Good article Richard - short, succinct and informative.
Response to Rob Campbell's "Ukraine Weekly Update"
"Do you sometimes get the impression that virtue signaling is replacing rationality as a guide to human action?"
LOL It always has. That's the purpose of morality and ethics: to replace rational thinking with RULES.
As for Biden's statement about a new world order, he wasn't making an admission. He was advocating for a new world NEOCON order. The previous world order was multipolar - the US and the Soviet Union/China. He wants a US unipolar "(US) rules-based order." He's not going to get it but he and the neocons will keep trying.
Which brings us to Israel. With four carrier battle groups in the Middle East, the US intends a war. Not just a "deterrence" - an outright war. You don't put that many CBGs unless that is the intent. The US is going to attack at least Hezbollah and probably Syria and Iran as well eventually. How it will kick off is uncertain, but is probably dependent on Israel going into Gaza and then Hezbollah attacking Israel.
Both of the latter are near-certainties. Some analysts - Scott Ritter is one - keep saying that Biden is telling Israel not to go into Gaza. Bullcrap. That is Biden doing CYA. Biden and Netanyahu have made a deal in which Israel expels the Palestinians and the US deals with Hezbollah. "I am on record for many years" - as Andrei says - predicting that eventuality.
It was inevitable. Israel and the neocons want Iran gone, that can't happen until Hezbollah is gone, and that can't happen unless the US does the heavy lifting for Israel against Hezbollah.
The problem for Israel and the US now is that all of the opposing parties are far stronger than they were in 2006, the last time Israel tried to remove Hezbollah. Hezbollah has enough missiles to do major damage to Israel, and Iran has enough long-range precision missiles (between 374-500) to both hit Israel and all US bases in the region.
Further, if this goes as planned, Syria, Turkey and possibly Egypt will probably get involved. In that eventuality, neither the US nor Israel can prevent Israel from being destroyed and possibly overrun. This could well be the end of the "Israel experiment", with the bulk of Israelis fleeing the country (if they even can in the middle of this sort of war.)
Then, of course, the real threat emerges: Israel has already threatened, as noted in your article, to use nuclear weapons. If it does that, it is likely that Pakistan will attack Israel - although the analysts saying that haven't noted that Pakistan can not reach Israel with its missiles, which is why Pakistan allegedly offered them to Turkey.
I view it as possible that Russia itself would intervene to prevent this by destroying Israel's nuclear arsenals using long-range missiles like the Kinzhal and Zircon (with conventional warheads which could penetrate Israel's launch site bunkers in the Negev), or possibly by using the S-400 air defense systems in Syria or Russian ships in the Med to destroy them on launch.
That of courses raises the risk that the US would engage Russia directly. And then we have WWIII with nukes.
Grab your popcorn. But first buy a one-way ticket to somewhere in the Southern Hemisphere. They always said Armageddon would occur in the Middle East. As Andrei Martyanov likes to say, "Well, here you go! You voted for it, you got it!"
Thanks for your comments Richard. I have to say that virtue signaling is not really a form of morality is it. Anyway, if you think all this is going to happen you must be worried. Of course it could happen but since we don't really know I prefer to remain optimistic. Thanks for the link to Crooke who I have been following now and then.
Your quoted casualty figures pretty well match my own guesstimates. At those sorts of levels the UAF is burning through the combat manpower of around 4 brigades per week. That means it would lose its entire manpower in teeth arms every 4 to 5 months. It is said that Ukraine is now burning through its fourth "army". I wonder how many they have left?
It's not only manpower they are running short of. As I said in the Update, even Ukrainian sources are concerned about the shell shortage. Richard Steven Hack did an article on casualty figures some time ago which is worth a look. The figures I have are from the Russian MoD but these are probably underestimates as Richard shows.