16 Comments

Ritter thinks Iran won't respond. Almost everyone, including Hassan Nasrallah says the opposite.

The Iranian retaliation when it comes will be governed by what I believe is the strategy of the Axis of Resistance: to bleed Israel and the US of men and ammunition exactly the same way the Russians are bleeding Ukraine and NATO. This is why they've haven't moved yet. They are waiting for the right time when Israel and the US are weakest.

They don't worry about the Palestinian death toll and neither does Hamas. There are 1.7 million Palestinians still in Gaza. Even the Israelis can't kill that many that fast before they and the US run out of weapons no matter how much the US sends. Over 100,000 Palestinians have been killed or wounded in the last six months. Do the math on how long it would take Israel to kill the rest.

Israel is relying on terror - except terror isn't working. Meanwhile, the Israeli economy is collapsing, they're running out of military capability, and Hezbollah is draining them in the north as Hamas drains them in the south, and the rest of the Axis of Resistance are draining their infrastructure and economy.

There is also the issue of "who wants to be blamed for starting the wider war?" No one does. But the Axis knows that 1) Netanyahu, for his personal, political and legal reasons, doesn't have a choice but to attack Hezbollah, and 2) his cabinet of crazies want to attack Hezbollah in order to get the US dragged into the war there and in Iran

So the Hezbollah war front is inevitable. That will inevitably lead to war with Iran because that's what the neocon crazies in Washington have been salivating for since the Islamic Revolution.

So Iran can make that calculation, too - that war with the US is inevitable. If I were them, I'd go ahead and hit Israel hard and ask Hezbollah to do the same; might as well start it now. But of course, logically it makes sense to delay as long as possible so you can increase your capabilities before you start losing them in actual combat. Apparently Iran is still sending shipments of weapons through Iraq and into Syria and presumably further into Lebanon.

And of course, that is precisely the strategy: build up the Axis' capabilities while draining Israel and the US of theirs.

The trigger for the wider war will be when Israel finally has no choice but to attack Hezbollah seriously with both air power and ground troops. Then the gloves will come off of everyone - Israel, the US, Hezbollah, Iran, Iranian militias throughout the Middle East, and the Houthis.

Israel will lose, the US will lose, the Zionists will be driven out of Israel. But the war could last years - but not too many years because of the inability of Israel and the US to continue to logistically support such a region-wide war, just as the US could not support Ukraine, which in turn will contribute to its inability to support Israel. And without the US logistical support, Israel is doomed.

Q.E.D.

Expand full comment
Apr 6Liked by Dr. Rob Campbell

Dont you find it strange that as the balance of power in the world shifts from the US her two main proxies are causing worldwide chaos. Its the West that is doomed but im troubled that either Israel or Ukraine can take the world with them. The Israelis in particular have the means and inclination to do just that. Remember they call it the Hannibal Directive when they are killing their own but ultimately there is a more sinister connotation to the name. Hannibal killed himself.

Expand full comment

My thinking on that is as follows:

1) Neither Russia nor China will allow Israel to destroy the Middle East including its oil production capability (especially China which needs that oil.) In fact, I think even the US would not allow it given the oil issue. The US is really not that self-sufficient in oil AFAIK.

2) The US and Russia almost certainly know where the Israeli missile launchers are located - my understanding is that is in the Negev Desert.

3) Israel, even under looming defeat from Hezbollah, won't fire everything at once. They will warn and use one or two nukes first. hoping to salvage victory first before suicide.

4) The nuclear parties will see that and take action. Russia's hypersonic missiles with conventional warheads can collapse the launch bunkers Israel has. That shuts down the rest of Israel's arsenal.

5) The remaining issue is the five Dolphin-class German subs allegedly armed with cruise missiles with nuclear warheads that Israel has. Each sub has four launch tubes for cruise missiles with an estimated 200KT warhead each for a total of 20 available nukes (and possible reloads). I'm not sure how they can be dealt with, but it's possible either the US or Russia have some means of tracking them and can take them out with their attack subs.

6) More likely, Russia, China and the US will warn Israel not to use them at pain of a nuclear response once they see Israel activity at the launch sites. If Israel's leaders persist, I would expect various parties in Israel to say, "Hold on, we didn't sign up for that" and organize a coup. There are still plenty of people in Israel who don't want to die outright.

Expand full comment
author

Thank you Richard - very much appreciated.

Expand full comment

It is not true that Hamas don't worry about the Palestinian death toll. They are their families. The Israeli's let hate get in the way of intelligent political strategy precisely because the neo-fascists now in charge feel the time is right to go for ethnic cleaning AND a majority of Israeli people support it having been indoctrinated in hate and propagandised by exaggeration and lies following Oct 7th. Hezbollah would be VERY ill advised to go beyond what they are already doing and Biden doesn't want a war (certainly at the moment). Nasrallah has spelled his strategy out AND IT IS WORKING. Many 'liberal' Jews are leaving Israel and 'going back to their American/European' homes. As long as Hezbollah and the Palestinian resistance exist they will never feel secure. Netanyahu knows that which is why he wants to bring it to a head.

Expand full comment

Some of your comments are correct. Others are not. When I say Hamas "doesn't worry"

it means they take the long view. They knew their people would die if they did October 7, but they did it anyway in view of the longer goal of freedom. That remains true today.

Hezbollah and the rest of the Axis of Resistance are coordinating their actions, maintaining "escalation dominance." But they don't control what the US and Netanyahu intend to do which is widen the war.

Don't believe the nonsense MSM stories about "conflict" between the US and Israel. That's all a cover story. The US and Israel are coordinating their strategy to 1) allow Israel to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians, 2) destroy Hezbollah, and 3) attack Iran. Not that they will achieve any of those goals - the Axis will insure that - but that is their coordinated goal.

What the Axis is doing now is the same strategy, as I said, that Russia is using in Ukraine - draining the enemy of its military capability as far as possible before actual war occurs.

If you sit around and wait for the six million Jews to leave Israel, all the Palestinians will be dead. The Zionists will only leave when Israel is defeated on the battlefield and that can only happen if Israel has to fight Hezbollah and Iran. Both Hezbollah and Iran know this.

The parties on both sides have decided that "now is the time" to finish this conflict. The US has to do so because it can not pivot to China while leaving Iran in control of the Persian Gulf oil transit routes. The neocons intended to take out Russia, then Iran, then China. They failed in Russia and need the distraction of a Middle East war, but they also have to take out Iran before China.

Again, they won't succeed - but they will try. Their ideology forces them to. I've been predicting this war for the last 18 years simply because no two countries (US and Iran, or Israel and Iran) can have this much enmity between them for decades without having a war.

You need to stop thinking like a "civilian" and start thinking like a ideological fanatic with state power. As an anarchist I know what states think like and what they do.

There will be a war - Israel and the US will insure that. But it will be the Axis that wins - not because they are in the right, but because they have a strategy that works.

Expand full comment
Apr 6Liked by Dr. Rob Campbell

The Russians will just keep stretching the Ukrainians front like an elastic band until it snaps. Probably May or June and then we have a rerun of Operation Bagration: named after the Russian Napoleonic general. Interestingly, the two great Russian generals who faced Napoleon were Bagration who died of wounds 1812 and Barclay de Tolly. De Tolly was actually a Barclay. His name sounds French but he was actually German Scottish descent.

Expand full comment
author
Apr 6·edited Apr 6Author

That's fascinating. I can see the similarities with Bagration in terms of the potential for collapse and the 'elastic band' metaphor sums it up really: the Russians will continue to 'stretch' the Ukrainians until they break and if that can be done with the least amount of killing that's fine with me. As I said, the 'de-energising' strategy seems a very humane one it would be great if the war can be ended quickly in that way.

Expand full comment

Im still worried about the back handed blow potential of the Ukrainians though

Expand full comment
Apr 6Liked by Dr. Rob Campbell

Thanks Rob and best wishes to you.

Expand full comment
author

Cheers Lantern Dude

Expand full comment
Apr 6·edited Apr 6Liked by Dr. Rob Campbell

Thanks for the update Rob. Always a good read.

Seriously, there are people in Ukraine that think the SMO will go on for several more years or even decades?

Even the other day Kuleba was reported as asking for all the patriot systems in the World to be sent to Ukraine.

Is it true that Syrsky and Zelensky actually think the UA is holding RF?

This shows the power of propaganda,, mass psychosis and drugs that are inherent in Neo Con Western influenced Ukrainian thinking.

IMO it will be over inside 12 months due to unsustainable manpower losses, and economy/ logistics. issues.

Ukraine, in the interim, should think strategically and what percentage of a country they want- because there wont be much left if this attrition and destruction rate keeps up for another year.

Prime for BlackRock/ Monsanto to finish their takeover.

Oh well, onto another week where the battles are vaguely reminiscent of Kursk and Stalingrad from WW2 over and over again.

Expand full comment
author

I'd be surprised if the Ukrainian army lasts until next year and I'd be surprised if Syrsky believes that his army is holding the Russians. As for Z, I really don't know whether he is deluded or obtaining his optimism through drugs. I wonder what other people think.

Expand full comment
Apr 6Liked by Dr. Rob Campbell

'Israel kills Ukrainian General in Syria?'

If only....

Expand full comment
author

If only eh! Many thanks for that - I've edited it.

Expand full comment

Thanks Rob for another great piece of work.

Expand full comment