This week has been difficult for me personally and I haven’t been able to devote as much time as I usually do to the Update. Life gets in the way sometimes. Since my attention has been in demand elsewhere I have not had the holistic sense of what’s been happening in Ukraine and the world generally. I usually think about such things a great deal (sad I know). It seems that the Middle East has a greater potential than Ukraine to spark a world war - especially after Israel attacked an Iranian Consulate in Syria - killing about 16 people including some top Iranian generals. Such actions are in breech of International Law - which is being broken so many times that it can hardly count as law anymore.
The genocide continues in Gaza and the UN continues to demonstrate that it is a failed symbol of a failed Uni-Polar ‘rules based’ World Order. It is losing its potency just like the Rest of the West. I hear that Biden phoned Xi this week. Alexander Mercouris talks about it here. The Chinese used the opportunity to chastise the US for various failings but causing damage to the US-China relationship came up for special criticism. This refers mainly to Taiwan, I think. On the Ukraine battlefronts, the pace of the Russian advance has been increasing steadily along with Ukrainian fears of a full frontal collapse. The Russians have trashed the Ukrainian oil, gas and electric supply/storage facilities and people are fleeing Kharkov, fearful of a Russian invasion. The once great Z has declared that Ukrainian mobilisation will now involve those over 25 rather than those over 27. This could bring thousands of new recruits - if they can catch them! The Europeans - especially the Napoleonic French, are all over the place - there are plenty of ‘Clown Worlds’ out there for Alex Christoforou to collect. Finally, people have been remembering the victims of the Crocus attacks while the evidence against those behind them is mounting and the US is coming under criticism for not giving Russia sufficient warning of assaults they suspected were coming.
Foreign Diplomats Visit Crocus
On the weekend, diplomats representing 130 countries paid tribute to those who lost their lives at Crocus. US ambassador Lynne Tracey was among those laying flowers. The Crocus terrorist attack, which was the deadliest in Russia for 20 years, killed 144 people and injured another 550 (figures vary).
We Love Russia
A recent poll showed that an all time record 94% of Russians consider themselves to be patriots. 81% said they trusted Vladimir Putin and 77% approve of his performance. This is amazing given the fact that populations, generally, do not like being in wars. But the terrorist attacks have convinced many that this war is necessary.
You Did It! Russia Accuses Ukraine for Crocus
The Russian Foreign Ministry has officially accused Ukrainian officials of being involved in the Crocus terror attacks claiming that its investigations revealed connections to Ukraine (wish they could have said more). The Foreign Ministry statement announced: “Russia has sent a demand to the Ukrainian authorities for the arrest and extradition of all those involved’’. A demand for the arrest of SBU head Malyuk was also made and Russia insisted that Ukraine desist from any involvement in terrorist activities and compensate the victims arising from this involvement.
This response from the Russians is worthy of reflection and analysis - and I am sure that many of the ‘experts’ will fulfil any desire out there for a detailed examination. But forgive me for nibbling at it a little. Who is this response aimed at, I wonder? And what is it saying to Russia’s opponents in this drama? Could it be directed at the realists among the Ukrainian ruling elite, perhaps? Is Putin saying: ‘we will hold you to account when we take over - so get rid of them’ (i.e. the Nazis). Is Putin attempting to take advantage of the obvious divisions within the Ukrainian administration? Probably. But how his statement appeals to the Ukrainian people is less clear - though most of the Ukrainian people will not have heard it. Putin could be telling the West that it will be held accountable for involvement in terrorist activities by an emerging Multi-Polar World Order in which it has to settle for being just one among equals. It seems that the world could be headed in that direction.
With regard to the Russian accusations, someone on Ukrainian channel legitimniy said:
This is a bad sign, which clearly shows how Russia is step by step trying to discredit Kyiv in the international arena. The second option is to create a reason for a future declaration of war or increase the stakes in the Ukrainian crisis.
Russian Offensive? (Ukrainian Sources)
Some Ukrainian sources (e.g. legitimniy) are suggesting that the Russians could launch an offensive at any time but this would risk generating support for the $61 billions Sleepy Joe wishes to donate. They suspect that perhaps the Russians will continue to move slowly forward on the fronts while gradually dismantling the energy infrastructure and forcing people to leave the country before they launch a blitzkrieg in the winter - following the US elections.
These Ukrainians are aware that the link between the Crocus terrorists and Ukrainian nationalists could prompt the Russians to increase the tempo. They are not convinced by Commander Syrsky’s claim that the Russians, while outnumbering the Ukrainians by a factor of 6-1 in manpower and artillery, are still suffering horrendous casualties at the hands of their opponents - according to legitimniy.
The once great Z himself has said that without Western aid the armed forces will be obliged to retreat slowly, ‘step by step’ due to missile shortages.
According to Pravda, the Ukrainians are busy building defences in Kharkov in anticipation of an attack and there is evidence of civilians fleeing the city - including this footage.
De-Energisation - A Winning Strategy?
The increased intensity of the Russian air war during the past week or so has concentrated on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure - especially the electric grid and gas transmission/distribution. Many have wondered why they have not done so before now - but I’m not going to speculate about that. However, Russian Journalist Yury Podolyaca believes that the Russians have decided to eliminate their opponent by destroying its energy infrastructure - without which, it can’t fight a war. This would be a humane way to end a war if only it were possible.
He also argues that the Ukrainian authorities, very much aware of this, could manipulate the concept of ‘victory’ through propaganda so that it will be perceived by the people to mean ‘sovereignty’. For Ukrainians threatened with Russian occupation this could be appealing, even if Ukraine is reduced somewhat in size as part of the deal. But the Ukrainian people will also be persuaded that the country is committed in the long term to reclaiming the lost territories, according to Podolyak. It’s all mythology of course but Ukraine is now in survival mode even if most Ukrainians are blissfully unaware - so any regime that wishes to be part of some sort of future for what’s left of the country will need mythology. Given the ‘showbizz’ background of many in the regime, I’m sure they will revel in this endeavour. (See report of Russian Missile/Drone attacks 31st March below).
Overseas Lice
The French are trying to downplay the role their troops will play in Ukraine. They will be involved in support roles rather than combat roles, they say. But this will free up Ukrainian troops to kill more Russians and Medvedev didn’t hold back in his criticism of these foreigners:
And for these overseas lice, who, unlike the unfortunate Ukrainians, were not forced to go to war, there can only be one rule: no captures! And for every NATO fighter killed, blown up or burned down, the maximum reward should be awarded. And no returns of bodies. Let relatives abroad suffer.
Pure theatre!
Alastair Crooke - Was Crocus a Turning Point?
Alastair Crooke, talking on Judge Napolitano, suggests that the Crocus attack was a turning point in that Russia’s attitude towards the Ukrainian SBU personnel and NATO personnel has changed in consequence. Such people are now fair game or even prime game for Russian attacks. The investigation into the attacks appears to be revealing connections with Ukraine and its Security Services so the latter will now be a prime target. Crooke’s video is very informative for those with 30 mins to spare.
Explosive Icons
During a vehicle inspection at Ubylinka, a border crossing between Russia and Latvia, the FSB and border guards discovered that a cargo of Orthodox icons and other church goods originating in Ukraine were in fact disguised bomb materials. Plastic explosives and detonators were also part of the cache which had traveled through Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia before arriving in Ukraine - according to RT.
150,000 Russians to be Conscripted
President Putin has announced that 150,000 Russians (aged between 18 and 30) will be conscripted from April 1st until July 16th while many of those who have completed their conscription period will be dismissed.
Odessa Is Russian
When interviewed by Ukrainian TV, this brave, elderly lady risked imprisonment for saying that Odessa is a Russian City, that she admires Putin and believes Ukraine should be united with Belarus and Russia. Wow!
Z No Longer Insisting On 1991 Boundaries
I wrote this story for my last Update but could not find confirmation of the source article featured in Pravda. However, RT is now running with it so here we go. The once great Z has announced that Ukraine will not insist on a return to the 1991 borders as a precondition for negotiations. The bad news is that he still insists that the four oblasts (i.e. Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhye) that have voted to join the Russian Federation must be returned. But of course this will never happen because a considerable majority of the populations in each will not stand for it and would feel betrayed if this ever happened. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Perskov reminded Z that: ‘‘the geopolitical reality has changed dramatically since the beginning of the special military operation. The borders of both Ukraine and the Russian Federation have changed.” It is obvious that Z is not catching up with reality quickly enough: he’s a step behind again.
Zelenzky has sacked a number of long standing advisors including his close aide, Sergey Shefir - according to RT.
Ukraine Conscription Age Reduced
Zelensky has reduced the conscription age from 27 to 25, which will provide around 340,000 males eligible to be conscripted (figures vary). Leaked documents from a French Defence source claims that Ukraine needs 35,000 extra men per month but it uncertain whether Ukraine’s mobilization can achieve this.
Public Donations Down 75%
Donations to the military from the public in Ukraine are down 75% according to this Ukrainian channel. By the end of the year, these Ukrainians believe, there could be a massive shortage of money for the army.
Ukrainians Still Attacking ZNPP
It appears that the mad Ukrainians are still attacking the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, hitting the cargo area on this occasion. There was very little damage and a spokesman said that the attacks were unacceptable. I think he could have chosen a stronger term.
Ukraine Terror Attacks (i.e. those that target civilians)
29th/30th March Overnight
Shelling continued in Kursk overnight while a drone hit a building in Belgorod killing one and injuring two others.
30th/31st March Overnight
Ten drones were shot down over Belgorod at night but some got through to cause damage to more than 20 dwelling, 5 cars and one individual who did not require hospitalisation.
31st March/1st April Overnight
Belgorod region was shelled overnight as usual. This time one woman was killed and another injured. In Kursk, one civilian was injured by shelling while 61 rounds were fired into the DPR injuring five, according to the Two Majors.
1st April/2nd April Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
Strikes from MLRS and drones continue in the Belgorod region. 10 civilians were injured. At the same time, air defence shoot down most targets: 36 Vampire MLRS rockets and 5 aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed yesterday. In the evening, 6 UAVs were reportedly destroyed over the Black Sea.
3rd/4th April Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
In the Belgorod region, Krasnoye settlement of the Shebekinsky urban district was attacked by the AFU kamikaze UAVs several times over the day. The enemy also shelled the village of Vyazovoye in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district. The Nazis fired 162 rounds of ammunition at the peaceful population of the DPR. A woman born in 1965 died in Donetsk, civilians born in 1936, 1962 and 1969 were injured.
The RF MoD reported In the morning that the air defence destroyed 5 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over the Belgorod (3 UAVs) and Tula (2 UAVs) regions.
April 4th/5th Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
The Belgorod region is under enemy attacks. Drones arrived at Voznesenovka of the Shebekinsky urban district and a lorry near Voznesenovka of the Shebekinsky urban district. There are attacks on the border areas. In Kursk, AFU drones hit an apartment building, fires broke out at the central market and at the centre for the development of creativity of children and youth on Uritsky Street.
The DPR was attacked once more, killing two and injuring ten.
The Air War
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
Energy Crisis Ukraine
Russian attacks since March 22nd have focused on the Ukrainian electricity grid, power generation and gas storage/transmission. Towards this end, the Burshtynska and Ladyzhynska TPPs were badly damaged and cannot be restored. These were the largest power plants in Ukraine. It seems that the accuracy of Russian missile attacks has increased considerably since these plants were last attacked about a year ago.
According to Slavyangrad::
Ukraine is heading towards a truly definitive energy crisis. In both the eastern and western regions, thermal power plants are being systematically dismantled, with the main turbine and generator sections completely demolished. Furthermore, dams are starting to collapse from south to north. It is anticipated that all dams and thermal power plants will be decommissioned in the near future. This energy crisis will not only devastate the Ukrainian military industry through direct attacks but also exacerbate the situation due to the lack of energy. The possibility of NATO-supported in-house production and maintenance will also be eliminated as a consequence. As a result, the logistics infrastructure in the rear may struggle to keep up with events at the front lines.
Ukraine energy spokesman, Oleksiy Kucherenko noted that the Russians are also targeting the largest gas storage facilities which could cause the gas supply system to become ‘unbalanced and unable to operate in a stable mode’. The Mayor of Kharkov, Igor Terekhov, has stated that all critical energy infrastructure in Kharkov has been destroyed and 150,000 people are homeless. He added the following:
Russia destroyed all transformer substations and damaged thermal power plants. There was a blackout in Kharkov. It is impossible to quickly restore this capacity. They work, but are not fully restored. We had to end the heating season early to save money. The introduced blackout schedules are hourly.
29th/30th March Overnight
Overnight, electricity was turned off in the Kirovograd, Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava, Sumy and Kharkov regions, as well as in the parts of Zaporozhye and the DPR occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Oil and gas concentrate storage facilities were destroyed by Geraniums in Poltava district and there were repeated strikes on energy facilities in Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk, according to Slavyangrad.
30th/31st March Overnight
The following Two Majors’ report lends support to the de-energisation strategy discussed above:
Last night, the RFAF launched another group attack on the enemy's power generation facilities. Explosions sounded in the Odessa region, after which there were power outages. Since March 22, 2024, several series of strikes have been carried out on power plants in Ukraine, the consequences of which the enemy now assesses as catastrophic. the restoration is comparable to new construction. Replacing transformers is not enough. The de-electrification of Ukraine is taking place throughout the territory of the former USSR, including the western regions. In addition to undermining the moral and psychological state of the population, the strikes are aimed at reducing the industrial production of the enemy, shackling its repair and restoration capabilities and minimising the operation of railway electric locomotives. In a number of regions, diesel locomotives are already being fixed where previously trains were powered by electricity.
31st March/1st April Overnight
According to Rybar:
Last night, Russian troops carried out further attacks on energy complex facilities in nine regions of Ukraine. A series of hits targeted the Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Ternopil regions, leading to emergency shutdowns announced by Ukrenergo in the Odessa region.
1st/2nd April Overnight
According to The Two Majors:
At night, Geran UAVs hit enemy targets in KrivoyRog, Pavlograd, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye. FABs with UMPC once again hit targets in Kharkov and the Kharkov region.
3rd/4th April Overnight
Yesterday evening the Russians launched a massive attack on Kharkov with Geraniums. Lazovsky district to the south was also attacked. The targets included energy infrastructure, military-defense complex along with enemy forces and equipment.
Between March 31st and April 5th, the Russians carried out 39 missile strikes on Ukraine’s oil, gas and energy (electric) facilities - according to Sputnik.
Ukrainian Missile/Drone Attacks
1st/2nd April Overnight
According to World Pravda:
This morning Ukrainian drones attacked the city of Yelabuga and its surroundings in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia. Reports indicate that the Yelaz Oil Refinery and the territory of the special economic zone "Alabuga" outside the city, where "Shaheds" are allegedly being produced, were attacked.
There was no serious damage and only two people were injured.
4th/5th April Overnight
Ukraine launched a large drone attack on Russian airfields overnight. Morozovsk air field in Rostov was attacked with 44 drones which were all shot down causing minimal damage from debris. The airfield at Yeisk (near the Sea of Azov) was attacked with ten drones causing minimal damage and one drone failed to cause damage at Engels airfield.
The Ground War
Abrams Failing
Some commentators believed that the US was ill advised to send the much vaunted Abrams tank to Ukraine and over the past week or so six of these monsters have bitten the dust on the battlefields, much to the dismay of those responsible for marketing them. For a long time they were invisible occupants of the rear areas but the Ukrainians became desperate and had to use them. Of course, Russian soldiers have been incentivised to destroy them and much publicity is derived from the various Telegram videos of their destruction, usually courtesy of acrobatic drones. You can read more at Zero Hedge.
Danger of Collapse
High ranking officers in the Ukrainian army told Politico they are fearful of a front line collapse if the Russians concentrate their forces and attack in one area. It seems that many officers are not optimistic that the West can do anything to help. I agree that a house of cards type collapse is possible: the big question is, when? You can read more here.
Russian Mod Reports
w/e 15th March 6745 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 411.
w/e 22nd March 8745 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 361
w/e 29th March 5770 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 361
w/e 5th April 5075 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 321.
Note that reported losses have decreased over the past two weeks. I have no idea why but some will hazard a guess - maybe.
The Fronts
Siversk
The Russians continue their advance in the Vesely area while some units are progressing on both sides of the railway toward the village of Vyemka, exerting pressure from the south on Ivano-Daryevka and Spornoe. Ukrainian troops in the Liman area are operating without armoured vehicles.
Bakhmut - Chasov Yar
On April 4th, according to sitrep:
In the Bakhmut direction, even greater success is recorded. West of Ivanovskoye (Krasnoye), Russian troops advanced through the forest to the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal. And to the west of Bogdanovka, according to some sources, it was possible to cling to the eastern outskirts of Chasov Yar in the Kanal microdistrict.
According to one report, the Russians had reached the suburbs of Chasov Yar by the end of the week.
Kherson-Krynki
Ukrainian troops occupy 50% of Krynki and have a presence at the Antonovsky bridge.
Zaporozhye - Rabotino - Verbove
Fighting continues in Rabotino where the Russians have advanced slightly, and in Verbove.
Ugledar
Novomikhaylovka, Mashinostroitel, Georgiyevka and Pobeda are all being contested. This report claims that the Ukrainians are struggling at Novomikhaylovka and may not be able to hold out for much longer.
Avdeevka
On April 4th, according to the Chronicle:
Near Avdeyevka, heavy fighting is also taking place. The RFAF are advancing west of Tonenkoye and are attacking the AFU defence in Semyonovka. In turn, the enemy is trying to launch a flank attack to the southwest of Tonenkoye and counterattacks in the area of Pervomayskoye in the direction of Vodyanooye.
The Economic War
Russia
In spite of, or maybe because of, all the sanctions placed on Russia, it has become the fifth fastest growing economy in the G20 - according to Sputnik. In contrast, the economies of France, Canada, Italy and the UK have slowed by three times or more.
Japan
A recent survey showed that 63% of Japanese are financially insecure and are worried about the future. More than 28% are having financial difficulties in raising their children and 26% complained about a poor work environment.
World Politics
Israel Kills Iranian Generals in Syria
Israel broke international law by attacking an Iranian Consulate in Syria this week. Hitherto, such areas were very much verboten. But now it seems that anyone and anywhere is fair game in modern war. It remains to be seen how the Iranians retaliate - if they do. Scott Ritter writes pessimistically about it here.
Big Pharma Used Russians as Guinea Pigs in Mariupol
Patients at Mariupol hospital were used to test various drugs over many years. This included drugs that could cause cancer and a drug that treated rheumatoid arthritis. You can read more at Sputnik.
Slovakia
According to Info Defence:
The Slovak parliament had dissolved the 'anti-corruption prosecutor’s office,' a structure reportedly controlled by the US Embassy to oversee local officials. Brussels is already threatening severe sanctions and reprimands, as Bratislava appears to have discarded one of the primary tools for external control over the country.
It seems that some countries in Europe are shaking off US control just as some African countries are shaking off the surviving remnants of French control.
Protests
Amsterdam
In Amsterdam, around 1000 people protested against NATO and arms supplies to Ukraine.
That’s it for another week. Many thanks for your views, subscriptions, likes, shares and comments. Apologies for being late this week - first time it has happened in months but I have been very busy with other things. Best wishes Rob
Ritter thinks Iran won't respond. Almost everyone, including Hassan Nasrallah says the opposite.
The Iranian retaliation when it comes will be governed by what I believe is the strategy of the Axis of Resistance: to bleed Israel and the US of men and ammunition exactly the same way the Russians are bleeding Ukraine and NATO. This is why they've haven't moved yet. They are waiting for the right time when Israel and the US are weakest.
They don't worry about the Palestinian death toll and neither does Hamas. There are 1.7 million Palestinians still in Gaza. Even the Israelis can't kill that many that fast before they and the US run out of weapons no matter how much the US sends. Over 100,000 Palestinians have been killed or wounded in the last six months. Do the math on how long it would take Israel to kill the rest.
Israel is relying on terror - except terror isn't working. Meanwhile, the Israeli economy is collapsing, they're running out of military capability, and Hezbollah is draining them in the north as Hamas drains them in the south, and the rest of the Axis of Resistance are draining their infrastructure and economy.
There is also the issue of "who wants to be blamed for starting the wider war?" No one does. But the Axis knows that 1) Netanyahu, for his personal, political and legal reasons, doesn't have a choice but to attack Hezbollah, and 2) his cabinet of crazies want to attack Hezbollah in order to get the US dragged into the war there and in Iran
So the Hezbollah war front is inevitable. That will inevitably lead to war with Iran because that's what the neocon crazies in Washington have been salivating for since the Islamic Revolution.
So Iran can make that calculation, too - that war with the US is inevitable. If I were them, I'd go ahead and hit Israel hard and ask Hezbollah to do the same; might as well start it now. But of course, logically it makes sense to delay as long as possible so you can increase your capabilities before you start losing them in actual combat. Apparently Iran is still sending shipments of weapons through Iraq and into Syria and presumably further into Lebanon.
And of course, that is precisely the strategy: build up the Axis' capabilities while draining Israel and the US of theirs.
The trigger for the wider war will be when Israel finally has no choice but to attack Hezbollah seriously with both air power and ground troops. Then the gloves will come off of everyone - Israel, the US, Hezbollah, Iran, Iranian militias throughout the Middle East, and the Houthis.
Israel will lose, the US will lose, the Zionists will be driven out of Israel. But the war could last years - but not too many years because of the inability of Israel and the US to continue to logistically support such a region-wide war, just as the US could not support Ukraine, which in turn will contribute to its inability to support Israel. And without the US logistical support, Israel is doomed.
Q.E.D.
The Russians will just keep stretching the Ukrainians front like an elastic band until it snaps. Probably May or June and then we have a rerun of Operation Bagration: named after the Russian Napoleonic general. Interestingly, the two great Russian generals who faced Napoleon were Bagration who died of wounds 1812 and Barclay de Tolly. De Tolly was actually a Barclay. His name sounds French but he was actually German Scottish descent.