"Most commentators are asking whether the Israeli tail is wagging the American dog or vice versa but I’ve no room to discuss that here."
Definitely best to stay out of that, since it's essentially a "religious war" between "analysts" or what we in the computer field used to call "flame wars". I did weigh in on Gilbert Doctorow's and Larry Johnson's blogs to say "both sides are right - which is why both sides are wrong." As is always the case when people make a binary "either-or" argument.
" I would make sure that no part of Ukraine remains under Western control. "
That's exactly what Russia will do, as I've said since April, 2022.
As for the Iranian parliamentarians calling for a change in Iran's nuclear doctrine, Karl Sanchez's Substack article on the ASEAN meeting today quoted Lavrov as saying something to the effect that "we've seen members of parliaments say things that are contrary to a country's official and practical interests before" - in other words, forget about it and rely on the IAEA reports which show no movement whatever to a nuclear weapons program.
Basically he was blowing off the "Iran nuclear test" story which was an obvious propaganda ploy to justify the upcoming US-Israel attack on Iran - which, by the way, I am fairly sure will be executed by both the US and Israel directly, not just US support. Everything coming of Washington on that possibility has been utter BS.
Any time Biden or his crowd is quoted as telling Israel to do something or that the US will do something, take the exact opposite as being the truth. Biden has allegedly told Israel not to attack Iran's oil or nuclear facilities - utter nonsense.
Mercouris was on Colonel Davis yesterday. I had to turn it off once both of them started talking about "what is Israel's strategic plan?" to which they apparently had zero clue. Israel's "strategic plan" has always been - as I've said for 17 years - to make the US fight the war for them. And yet we have two so-called "analysts" that still can't figure that out.
At this point I'm reduced to only listening to Pepe Escobar and Alastair Crooke. Literally everyone else is clueless.
Thanks for that Richard. I'm not as sure as you are about Russian taking control of Western Ukraine. My view is that the Russians would want to ensure that Western Ukraine is not under Western control but would not want the hassle of governing people who are more culturally attuned to the West. There are many possible outcomes here that do not involve Russia governing West Ukraine. The variables are massive so I don't want to go there. I agree with you that Iran is unlikely to have a nuclear device. Why would 39 representatives ask for the development of a nuclear device if one already existed. In this tail and dog debate, I am inclined to the view that the US has more control over Israel than some give it credit for. Time will tell on that one. If Israel is clearly operating against US interests then the gravy train will stop. But the US administration is divided and irrational and so is the Israeli government - therefore predictions are problematic. Alastair Crooke impresses me more than anyone btw.
"My view is that the Russians would want to ensure that Western Ukraine is not under Western control but would not want the hassle of governing people who are more culturally attuned to the West."
That's the point. Russia can't have it both ways. From a security standpoint, they need to control western Ukraine. They've done it before during the Soviet times and they defeated the last western Ukraine insurgency. So why should they sacrifice their primary security concern over the less concern of some unruly Ukrainians?
I've said this repeatedly, but no one gets it. This is the Internet and drone age, not the 1950's. You can NOT have an insurgency today, rural or urban. There is too much surveillance and technology arrayed against you by a powerful government. The only exception is if you can go underground like Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Ukrainians have not been digging tunnels and bunkers for the last twenty years. They can't do that.
Plus as I've also said since April, 2022, after Russia takes the whole of Ukraine, thousands of Russian military police, Rosqvardia, GRU, SVR and FSB agents will flood western Ukraine, scrape the Internet for every sign of someone with influence and resources enough to cause trouble, and detain and deport those people. The Russians don't care about every Ukrainian neo-Nazi football hooligan, only people with influence. All the existing politicians will be drop-kicked into Poland.
Since the 1950's Russia has done Afghanistan, Chechnya (twice) and Syria. Been there, done that. They can figure out how to handle some unruly Ukrainians. What matters is countering the NATO military threat, and for that they need a Western Ukraine Military District (which, by the way, will be mostly invulnerable to any so-called "insurgency" since it will have half a million soldiers, 1,500 tanks, airbases, air defenses, etc.) And no doubt, a Russian naval base in Odessa to further cover the Black Sea.
If the Russians don't do this, they will have lost the war. I wouldn't be surprised if that happens, because humans are stupid. But I still think the Russians are smarter than most so-called "analysts" in the West who all think they will stop at the Dnieper.
I agreed with the Dr. western Ukraine just didnt seem worth it but i think now the Russians have no option but to take over the whole of Ukraine otherwise a rump, non Russian, western Ukraine will just be a bastion of ultra nationalism fomenting strife and acting as a magnet for Nato intrigue and future trouble. A bit like post WW1 Germany. Badly beaten but not defeated, so to speak. Waiting for round 2.
Someone else, not me (but I can't remember who or where) has made the point that if Russia takes territory up to or including part(s) of the Dneiper, then in order to safeguard the integrity of the river they will also have to take most or all of the associated tributary river system. Whether this is the case or not, I am not sure, but it would seem to be a reasonable premise, given the possibilities of (deliberate?) pollution, or indeed sabotage.
I meant to comment on this. James makes a very good point. I checked the major Ukrainian rivers- they all seem to be connected either by tributaries or canal systems. I was thinking it was unbelievable how the Germans managed to control the area during WW2. Then i remembered they had real problems with guerillas in the rear throughout the war and the Soviets were then dealing with Ukrainian fascists in the same area well into the 1950s. It seems to me the Russians will really need to think this one through. They will be really exposed if they go into the true Ukrainian heartlands. Its complicated, Enjoy your week.
M and Richard - I think the Russians will definitely want control over Western Ukraine but it remains to be seen how they do that. There is also the possibility of a land grab by the likes of Poland and Hungary.
I respect your opinions but I just cant see western Ukraine being carved up in a 1919 style land grab between Hungary and Poland.
I don't think Poland would want another Volnyn persecution or excess nationalist sentiment in their country.
Not sure Hungary would be that interested either.
The Romanian Hyenas quite possibly.
Its a tough one because Russia knows that the West will eventually go to WW3 if Russia tries to absorb the entire Ukraine territory.
There has to be a solution and peace plan but there are just too many banderists and western warmongers in the way of it right now..
I think it will end something like Crimea stays with Russia and everything East of the Dniepr to some sort of Russian protectorate. With massive guarantees.
Stoltenberg's Finland example shows his ignorance. He was referring to the first treaty they did with the Russians in 1940. He failed to reflect that they reneged in 1941 and after they were defeated again- they were active participants in he genocide if Leningrad- they lost even more territory and had to physically expel their former allies from their remaining territory in 1944.
I dont know if it is your academic background but it better structured than the others and well written. For eg, a year from now if someone wanted to find out what happened during the week ending 11 October 2024 in the Ukraine war what would be the best blog to retrieve the information? MOA is good but inconsistent as is Simplicius with the occasional sitrep etc. Your readership is high quality also, you can tell by the quality of the comments. I think GB may have self published. I will need to check. I thought you had taken early retirement. Must be the clean Borders air. In Dundee you are considered lucky if you make retirement age.
I've written a number of academic works but none were published. I also wrote lots of philosophy stuff for my Pub Philosophy groups; a book on philosphising (extracts have been published on Substack) and a book on the Trials and Tribulations of a pub philosopher. So, my writing background is academic. I was looking back at Updates from a year ago and the structure and presentation is not as good as it is now. I am always looking for ways to improve the Update and it has benefited from this. I want people to enjoy reading it - so I try to make it light. You are right about my readers: there are some very knowledgeable people out there including yourself. I enjoy the clean Borders air and have a hound who needs lots of exercise - so I am quite fit.
Do you know of any substacker who has written a good recap about what the heck is going on in those Hurricane Helene affected areas ?
The few reports i have read seem to make no sense or the feds are even more incompetent than anyone thought or intentionally malicious toward 'Trump voters'
Or maybe you can give us a good report from that ;)
That Höcke said we should be proud of our Nazi past is an utter lie.
Höcke once said in a speech:
Alles für Deutschland! (Everything for Germany / German MAGA)
As this was written on the daggers of the Nazis SA, He was fined 6100€ for using Nazi Paroles, even If nearly nobody in Germany knew about that inscript.
I can assure you that Höcke is just a conservative politician Like many in the pre 2000 CDU we're.
German speakers can listen to interviews with him at Weltwoche and other media.
Thanks for that Johannes. I was careless in the way I expressed this on the Update so I have altered it. The globalists and the far left have a tendency to scare people about the rise of fascism in Europe and such accusations are part of that.
I live in another EU country - here we have ALL major parties in parliament who are globalists, anti-Trump, pro-LGBT, anti-christian, russophobic and pro-ukraine.. BUT the party that is somehow least globalist, but still supports all the above agendas, just not 100% like the others, but maybe 90%, are called 'Extreme RIght' 'Nazi' and 'Facist' in the media.
It's laughable idiotism. People who still support the same agenda, just not so extremely as the others, are bashed in the media 24/7 , almost like they are trying to deliberately shift the Overton Window so that nobody would even talk about any real changes, only debate about sick things like 'can you make the abort still after birth or do you need to do it just as the baby is coming out'
There is a huge amount of Jewish campaign contributions and AIPAC is not a registered foreign lobbyist, even if they lobby for Israel. And anti semitic and Hitler accusations still have power in U.S. politics, unfortunately. And there is big support among evangelicals for Israel and Trump. Trump has been attacked with this, even though he has a Jewish Son in law.
And if you look into this too much and notice certain things, you get labeled as an anti Semitic and will be ostracized and canceled. Unz has written on the subject.
Doctorow is correct. The Ashkenazi are mostly from the old Polish Lithuania Commonwealth lands. They were used by the Polish aristocrats to keep the local slavic peasants under control. Thats why the Germans found so many willing local executioners during WW2. The Israelis are the local proxies for the US as their forebears were for the Polish princes.
Miriam Adelson has donated millions to Trump. He has been bought and the price is the annexation of the West Bank by Israel.
Two interest facts i discovered: the Lebanese claim to be Canaanite/Phoenician and not Arab. Basically the same people as the ancient Hebrews.
Recent genetical studies show the Ashkenazi, who claim to be the descendants of the ancient Hebrews, only have 19% genetical matter witg the Levant as area of origin as opposed to 30% southern Europe ie Italy and 26% north European. The rest being Khazarian and Mesopotamian/Persian.
I suppose you could argue the ancient Hebrews because of the exile etc would be an admix of Middle East descent but you can't get away from the fact that genetically the modern Israeli Ashkenazi Jew is of European descent and not Middle Eastern.
For the sake of completeness: the Sephardic Jews are apparently mainly of North African Berber descent. So, again, they have limited genetical connection to the ancient Hebrews or the lands that form modern day Israel.
I think that Trump cannot be really bought If he is convinced of something.
As for the palestinians, the northern kingdom of Israel was destroyed by the Assyrians and the upper class was deported. The lower classes staid, and so the palestinians are their descandents.
Nowadays Jews are the descandents of the tribes of Judah and Benjamin.
For those WHO know the bible, the whole Israel, all 12 tribes, shall be returned.
Now that Salmond is dead makes you wonder what would happen if Putin suddenly died. Intriguing. You should consider going to print with your weekly reports now you have a year under your belt. Your weekly update is probably the best structured blog on the war. Would be a great asset for referencing etc. I see Gideon Levy has just published Gaza Reports after a year. Grousebeater the indy blogger did the same. Cheers
Salmond was younger that me and Putin is about a month older. If Putin dies, I don't think much will change because capable people are available to replace him - if it is possible to replace him. I'm flattered by what you say about the Update but how can you tell whether my Update is more popular than others? And I have no idea how I would go to print. It's good to hear that sort of praise - thank you.
The new/old? world order eastern front is teetering on collapse.
Will world leaders escalate to WW3 or strike a peace agreement soon after.
The neocons just offer more war if they get in and Trump, who knows?
In my opinion he seems set in his ways and unstable at the best of times..
His denuclearisation boasts were also shot down by the Russians
His layman's approach towards politics does not really present him as suitable opposition to the neocons and why he was chosen by the Reps is anyone's guess.
But that seems to be the way world power is designed at the moment..
Thanks for the excellent update Rob. I'm inclined to agree with RSH that Russia will fix Ukraine for good and take the lot as otherwise they will be left with a festering sore that never heals and erupts against them forever. By the way, this was the NATO plan, so any rump Ukraine could be seen as a NATO success of some sort. Russia does not want this crap happening on its border and will take the necessary steps, I think, could be wrong but logic would dictate that path.
Cheers Chris - as I have said elsewhere, Russia will want control of Western Ukraine, whether they could do that without occupying it is uncertain. Maybe they will do what Richard suggests (see his comments).
I've just seen an interview with Alex Krainer - this guy is clever; I 've been following him for a while. Forgive me if you already know this but apparently top Israeli Generals did an exercise on an Israeli South Lebanon invasion against Hezbollah. They concluded that such a mission would be suicidal. Have a look at this: https://youtu.be/EkJEmpaVsXs?t=485
On Ukraine's Future: there are two alternatives for Western Ukraine. Either Poland is given back Galicia, or it becomes Russia friendly. How? If it is ceded to Belarus. At the outset Russia sent 80,000 troops to Belarus, to add to its own 150,000. Poland has been in there shit-stirring during the conflict, and gaining nothing. Russia has no desire to add Western Ukraine to its already massive federation responsibilities, because it does not contain masses of ethnic Russians. I have thought from the outset that Belarus can solve the problem of its future.
On Trump: Yes, Americans are seeing what an airhead Kamala is, every time she opens her mouth, and cooling on enthusiasm for her. As with Vietnam and Afghanistan before it, the power without glory string pullers (the alphasbeticals) would probably be happy to call it a day in Ukraine, the MIC having extracted maximum financial benefit from that quagmire. However, Israel is another story. Israel is the US' cat among the pigeons in the middle east. A base for keeping the oil-producing nations in a state of chaos so that the US can be gatekeeper to the world's oil.
Also, Trump has skin in the game, as his favourite daughter is married to a Zionist whose construction business family is making a fortune building dwellings for those West Bank, Brooklyn Jewish land thieves who call themselves 'settlers'. Adelson's funding of his campaign only strengthens Trump's devotion to the Zionist cause.
This is tragic for the many Palestinian and Lebanese lives that will be lost, but it is an ill wind that doesn't blow some good. Trump's and Netanyahu's intractability will ensure the Axis of Resistance will continue to strengthen, and ultimately evict the US from Syria, and Iraq; rid the middle east of US bases in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan; and ensure the end if the Zionist colony, enabling the Palestinian diaspora to return to what will become Palestine.
The only alternative to this, and Netanyahu has already called it, is 'Operation Armageddon' - suicide on a grand scale. We have to hope that cooler heads prevail and pull us back from this eventuality.
The temptation for the US is to encourage Netanyahu, in order to derail the BRIC juggernaught, knowing that it will spell the end of dollar dominance.
"Most commentators are asking whether the Israeli tail is wagging the American dog or vice versa but I’ve no room to discuss that here."
Definitely best to stay out of that, since it's essentially a "religious war" between "analysts" or what we in the computer field used to call "flame wars". I did weigh in on Gilbert Doctorow's and Larry Johnson's blogs to say "both sides are right - which is why both sides are wrong." As is always the case when people make a binary "either-or" argument.
" I would make sure that no part of Ukraine remains under Western control. "
That's exactly what Russia will do, as I've said since April, 2022.
As for the Iranian parliamentarians calling for a change in Iran's nuclear doctrine, Karl Sanchez's Substack article on the ASEAN meeting today quoted Lavrov as saying something to the effect that "we've seen members of parliaments say things that are contrary to a country's official and practical interests before" - in other words, forget about it and rely on the IAEA reports which show no movement whatever to a nuclear weapons program.
Basically he was blowing off the "Iran nuclear test" story which was an obvious propaganda ploy to justify the upcoming US-Israel attack on Iran - which, by the way, I am fairly sure will be executed by both the US and Israel directly, not just US support. Everything coming of Washington on that possibility has been utter BS.
Any time Biden or his crowd is quoted as telling Israel to do something or that the US will do something, take the exact opposite as being the truth. Biden has allegedly told Israel not to attack Iran's oil or nuclear facilities - utter nonsense.
Mercouris was on Colonel Davis yesterday. I had to turn it off once both of them started talking about "what is Israel's strategic plan?" to which they apparently had zero clue. Israel's "strategic plan" has always been - as I've said for 17 years - to make the US fight the war for them. And yet we have two so-called "analysts" that still can't figure that out.
At this point I'm reduced to only listening to Pepe Escobar and Alastair Crooke. Literally everyone else is clueless.
Thanks for that Richard. I'm not as sure as you are about Russian taking control of Western Ukraine. My view is that the Russians would want to ensure that Western Ukraine is not under Western control but would not want the hassle of governing people who are more culturally attuned to the West. There are many possible outcomes here that do not involve Russia governing West Ukraine. The variables are massive so I don't want to go there. I agree with you that Iran is unlikely to have a nuclear device. Why would 39 representatives ask for the development of a nuclear device if one already existed. In this tail and dog debate, I am inclined to the view that the US has more control over Israel than some give it credit for. Time will tell on that one. If Israel is clearly operating against US interests then the gravy train will stop. But the US administration is divided and irrational and so is the Israeli government - therefore predictions are problematic. Alastair Crooke impresses me more than anyone btw.
"My view is that the Russians would want to ensure that Western Ukraine is not under Western control but would not want the hassle of governing people who are more culturally attuned to the West."
That's the point. Russia can't have it both ways. From a security standpoint, they need to control western Ukraine. They've done it before during the Soviet times and they defeated the last western Ukraine insurgency. So why should they sacrifice their primary security concern over the less concern of some unruly Ukrainians?
I've said this repeatedly, but no one gets it. This is the Internet and drone age, not the 1950's. You can NOT have an insurgency today, rural or urban. There is too much surveillance and technology arrayed against you by a powerful government. The only exception is if you can go underground like Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Ukrainians have not been digging tunnels and bunkers for the last twenty years. They can't do that.
Plus as I've also said since April, 2022, after Russia takes the whole of Ukraine, thousands of Russian military police, Rosqvardia, GRU, SVR and FSB agents will flood western Ukraine, scrape the Internet for every sign of someone with influence and resources enough to cause trouble, and detain and deport those people. The Russians don't care about every Ukrainian neo-Nazi football hooligan, only people with influence. All the existing politicians will be drop-kicked into Poland.
Since the 1950's Russia has done Afghanistan, Chechnya (twice) and Syria. Been there, done that. They can figure out how to handle some unruly Ukrainians. What matters is countering the NATO military threat, and for that they need a Western Ukraine Military District (which, by the way, will be mostly invulnerable to any so-called "insurgency" since it will have half a million soldiers, 1,500 tanks, airbases, air defenses, etc.) And no doubt, a Russian naval base in Odessa to further cover the Black Sea.
If the Russians don't do this, they will have lost the war. I wouldn't be surprised if that happens, because humans are stupid. But I still think the Russians are smarter than most so-called "analysts" in the West who all think they will stop at the Dnieper.
I agreed with the Dr. western Ukraine just didnt seem worth it but i think now the Russians have no option but to take over the whole of Ukraine otherwise a rump, non Russian, western Ukraine will just be a bastion of ultra nationalism fomenting strife and acting as a magnet for Nato intrigue and future trouble. A bit like post WW1 Germany. Badly beaten but not defeated, so to speak. Waiting for round 2.
Someone else, not me (but I can't remember who or where) has made the point that if Russia takes territory up to or including part(s) of the Dneiper, then in order to safeguard the integrity of the river they will also have to take most or all of the associated tributary river system. Whether this is the case or not, I am not sure, but it would seem to be a reasonable premise, given the possibilities of (deliberate?) pollution, or indeed sabotage.
Interesting
I meant to comment on this. James makes a very good point. I checked the major Ukrainian rivers- they all seem to be connected either by tributaries or canal systems. I was thinking it was unbelievable how the Germans managed to control the area during WW2. Then i remembered they had real problems with guerillas in the rear throughout the war and the Soviets were then dealing with Ukrainian fascists in the same area well into the 1950s. It seems to me the Russians will really need to think this one through. They will be really exposed if they go into the true Ukrainian heartlands. Its complicated, Enjoy your week.
M and Richard - I think the Russians will definitely want control over Western Ukraine but it remains to be seen how they do that. There is also the possibility of a land grab by the likes of Poland and Hungary.
I respect your opinions but I just cant see western Ukraine being carved up in a 1919 style land grab between Hungary and Poland.
I don't think Poland would want another Volnyn persecution or excess nationalist sentiment in their country.
Not sure Hungary would be that interested either.
The Romanian Hyenas quite possibly.
Its a tough one because Russia knows that the West will eventually go to WW3 if Russia tries to absorb the entire Ukraine territory.
There has to be a solution and peace plan but there are just too many banderists and western warmongers in the way of it right now..
I think it will end something like Crimea stays with Russia and everything East of the Dniepr to some sort of Russian protectorate. With massive guarantees.
Thanks Anthony - I don't really have an opinion on the land grab: but others believe this is possible. I have no idea.
Lawrow mentioned in a speech that after WW2 Austria was occupied from Russia. After they declared neutrality, Russia withdrew.
Possibly a pattern for Ukraine?
Stoltenberg's Finland example shows his ignorance. He was referring to the first treaty they did with the Russians in 1940. He failed to reflect that they reneged in 1941 and after they were defeated again- they were active participants in he genocide if Leningrad- they lost even more territory and had to physically expel their former allies from their remaining territory in 1944.
I dont know if it is your academic background but it better structured than the others and well written. For eg, a year from now if someone wanted to find out what happened during the week ending 11 October 2024 in the Ukraine war what would be the best blog to retrieve the information? MOA is good but inconsistent as is Simplicius with the occasional sitrep etc. Your readership is high quality also, you can tell by the quality of the comments. I think GB may have self published. I will need to check. I thought you had taken early retirement. Must be the clean Borders air. In Dundee you are considered lucky if you make retirement age.
I've written a number of academic works but none were published. I also wrote lots of philosophy stuff for my Pub Philosophy groups; a book on philosphising (extracts have been published on Substack) and a book on the Trials and Tribulations of a pub philosopher. So, my writing background is academic. I was looking back at Updates from a year ago and the structure and presentation is not as good as it is now. I am always looking for ways to improve the Update and it has benefited from this. I want people to enjoy reading it - so I try to make it light. You are right about my readers: there are some very knowledgeable people out there including yourself. I enjoy the clean Borders air and have a hound who needs lots of exercise - so I am quite fit.
Do you know of any substacker who has written a good recap about what the heck is going on in those Hurricane Helene affected areas ?
The few reports i have read seem to make no sense or the feds are even more incompetent than anyone thought or intentionally malicious toward 'Trump voters'
Or maybe you can give us a good report from that ;)
I don't know any substackers who are covering it. But Anthony Brian Logan provides something in this vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nf9LWQM1xLc. Jimmy Dore does something on it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOt2X3vVbGM. Slightly Offensive has a down the rabbit hole view here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyhZAA6M6rg. I haven't time to investigate myself.
That Höcke said we should be proud of our Nazi past is an utter lie.
Höcke once said in a speech:
Alles für Deutschland! (Everything for Germany / German MAGA)
As this was written on the daggers of the Nazis SA, He was fined 6100€ for using Nazi Paroles, even If nearly nobody in Germany knew about that inscript.
I can assure you that Höcke is just a conservative politician Like many in the pre 2000 CDU we're.
German speakers can listen to interviews with him at Weltwoche and other media.
Thanks for that Johannes. I was careless in the way I expressed this on the Update so I have altered it. The globalists and the far left have a tendency to scare people about the rise of fascism in Europe and such accusations are part of that.
I live in another EU country - here we have ALL major parties in parliament who are globalists, anti-Trump, pro-LGBT, anti-christian, russophobic and pro-ukraine.. BUT the party that is somehow least globalist, but still supports all the above agendas, just not 100% like the others, but maybe 90%, are called 'Extreme RIght' 'Nazi' and 'Facist' in the media.
It's laughable idiotism. People who still support the same agenda, just not so extremely as the others, are bashed in the media 24/7 , almost like they are trying to deliberately shift the Overton Window so that nobody would even talk about any real changes, only debate about sick things like 'can you make the abort still after birth or do you need to do it just as the baby is coming out'
Cheers. I like the term idiotism - never seen it used before.
On Israel and Trump. It’s complicated and a mess.
There is a huge amount of Jewish campaign contributions and AIPAC is not a registered foreign lobbyist, even if they lobby for Israel. And anti semitic and Hitler accusations still have power in U.S. politics, unfortunately. And there is big support among evangelicals for Israel and Trump. Trump has been attacked with this, even though he has a Jewish Son in law.
And if you look into this too much and notice certain things, you get labeled as an anti Semitic and will be ostracized and canceled. Unz has written on the subject.
Cheers Ray - I didn't know about Trump's son in law until Joy mentioned it. Yes it is a mess.
It comes all down to Trumps advisers. At the Moment Kushner is one of them. This Guy ist even advertising beach plots in Gaza.
In general, If Trump is aware that something will hurt America, he will go against it.
I agree - Trump is a patriot.
Doctorow is correct. The Ashkenazi are mostly from the old Polish Lithuania Commonwealth lands. They were used by the Polish aristocrats to keep the local slavic peasants under control. Thats why the Germans found so many willing local executioners during WW2. The Israelis are the local proxies for the US as their forebears were for the Polish princes.
Miriam Adelson has donated millions to Trump. He has been bought and the price is the annexation of the West Bank by Israel.
Two interest facts i discovered: the Lebanese claim to be Canaanite/Phoenician and not Arab. Basically the same people as the ancient Hebrews.
Recent genetical studies show the Ashkenazi, who claim to be the descendants of the ancient Hebrews, only have 19% genetical matter witg the Levant as area of origin as opposed to 30% southern Europe ie Italy and 26% north European. The rest being Khazarian and Mesopotamian/Persian.
I suppose you could argue the ancient Hebrews because of the exile etc would be an admix of Middle East descent but you can't get away from the fact that genetically the modern Israeli Ashkenazi Jew is of European descent and not Middle Eastern.
For the sake of completeness: the Sephardic Jews are apparently mainly of North African Berber descent. So, again, they have limited genetical connection to the ancient Hebrews or the lands that form modern day Israel.
Thanks for the education M - I didn't know any of that.
I think that Trump cannot be really bought If he is convinced of something.
As for the palestinians, the northern kingdom of Israel was destroyed by the Assyrians and the upper class was deported. The lower classes staid, and so the palestinians are their descandents.
Nowadays Jews are the descandents of the tribes of Judah and Benjamin.
For those WHO know the bible, the whole Israel, all 12 tribes, shall be returned.
Which would be a one state solution.
Now that Salmond is dead makes you wonder what would happen if Putin suddenly died. Intriguing. You should consider going to print with your weekly reports now you have a year under your belt. Your weekly update is probably the best structured blog on the war. Would be a great asset for referencing etc. I see Gideon Levy has just published Gaza Reports after a year. Grousebeater the indy blogger did the same. Cheers
Salmond was younger that me and Putin is about a month older. If Putin dies, I don't think much will change because capable people are available to replace him - if it is possible to replace him. I'm flattered by what you say about the Update but how can you tell whether my Update is more popular than others? And I have no idea how I would go to print. It's good to hear that sort of praise - thank you.
Thanks Rob and another great round up.
The new/old? world order eastern front is teetering on collapse.
Will world leaders escalate to WW3 or strike a peace agreement soon after.
The neocons just offer more war if they get in and Trump, who knows?
In my opinion he seems set in his ways and unstable at the best of times..
His denuclearisation boasts were also shot down by the Russians
His layman's approach towards politics does not really present him as suitable opposition to the neocons and why he was chosen by the Reps is anyone's guess.
But that seems to be the way world power is designed at the moment..
Lets see what happens next week.
Cheers Anthony
Thanks for the excellent update Rob. I'm inclined to agree with RSH that Russia will fix Ukraine for good and take the lot as otherwise they will be left with a festering sore that never heals and erupts against them forever. By the way, this was the NATO plan, so any rump Ukraine could be seen as a NATO success of some sort. Russia does not want this crap happening on its border and will take the necessary steps, I think, could be wrong but logic would dictate that path.
Cheers Chris - as I have said elsewhere, Russia will want control of Western Ukraine, whether they could do that without occupying it is uncertain. Maybe they will do what Richard suggests (see his comments).
I've just seen an interview with Alex Krainer - this guy is clever; I 've been following him for a while. Forgive me if you already know this but apparently top Israeli Generals did an exercise on an Israeli South Lebanon invasion against Hezbollah. They concluded that such a mission would be suicidal. Have a look at this: https://youtu.be/EkJEmpaVsXs?t=485
On Ukraine's Future: there are two alternatives for Western Ukraine. Either Poland is given back Galicia, or it becomes Russia friendly. How? If it is ceded to Belarus. At the outset Russia sent 80,000 troops to Belarus, to add to its own 150,000. Poland has been in there shit-stirring during the conflict, and gaining nothing. Russia has no desire to add Western Ukraine to its already massive federation responsibilities, because it does not contain masses of ethnic Russians. I have thought from the outset that Belarus can solve the problem of its future.
On Trump: Yes, Americans are seeing what an airhead Kamala is, every time she opens her mouth, and cooling on enthusiasm for her. As with Vietnam and Afghanistan before it, the power without glory string pullers (the alphasbeticals) would probably be happy to call it a day in Ukraine, the MIC having extracted maximum financial benefit from that quagmire. However, Israel is another story. Israel is the US' cat among the pigeons in the middle east. A base for keeping the oil-producing nations in a state of chaos so that the US can be gatekeeper to the world's oil.
Also, Trump has skin in the game, as his favourite daughter is married to a Zionist whose construction business family is making a fortune building dwellings for those West Bank, Brooklyn Jewish land thieves who call themselves 'settlers'. Adelson's funding of his campaign only strengthens Trump's devotion to the Zionist cause.
This is tragic for the many Palestinian and Lebanese lives that will be lost, but it is an ill wind that doesn't blow some good. Trump's and Netanyahu's intractability will ensure the Axis of Resistance will continue to strengthen, and ultimately evict the US from Syria, and Iraq; rid the middle east of US bases in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan; and ensure the end if the Zionist colony, enabling the Palestinian diaspora to return to what will become Palestine.
The only alternative to this, and Netanyahu has already called it, is 'Operation Armageddon' - suicide on a grand scale. We have to hope that cooler heads prevail and pull us back from this eventuality.
The temptation for the US is to encourage Netanyahu, in order to derail the BRIC juggernaught, knowing that it will spell the end of dollar dominance.
We live in dangerous interesting times.
Thanks for that Joy. I didn't know about Trump's connection to the West bank settlements. I have no idea what an alphasbetical is btw.
CIA, FBI, NSC, NSA, etc. I think there are 17 US intel groups.
Applebaum's spouse the Polish FM commented in the prank call that Poland would enter western Ukraine if the Russians looked like they would take it.