Ukraine Weekly Update
11th October 2024
Once again, this week has been dominated by what is happening and what could happen in the Middle East (ME). Earlier this week I felt that I had to provide a brief article on the ME which is available only to subscribers and those on my Telegram Channel. It is too important to ignore. I have been following the situation closely and it appears that the Israelis are not doing well. Let me qualify that statement: the Israelis are doing wonderfully well at killing defenceless innocents in Gaza and Lebanon but are doing less well in confronting armed and dangerous warriors from Hamas and Hezbollah. I am following a Palestinian Channel and a couple of pro-Palestine channels doing Sitrep. According to these, the Israelis are being frustrated in their efforts to penetrate very far into Lebanon - thus far at least - and are taking casualties and loss of equipment. Most commentators are asking whether the Israeli tail is wagging the American dog or vice versa but I’ve no room to discuss that here.
On the fronts of the SMO, the Ukrainians are suffering the beginnings of a collapse in Kursk, while the Russians continue to make progress in Kupyansk, Seversk, Chasov Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Uhledar. The prospect of another major collapse remains tantalisingly out of reach on the horizon but surely can’t be far away - the optimists cry. Of course the autumn rains will have a say in it all as will the US elections which are less than a month away. There have been some interesting developments ‘behind the scenes’ within and without Ukraine. Things are on a knife edge here as they are in the Middle East. But Armageddon is more likely to come from there than in Ukraine - unless the Ukrainians manage to strike a Nuclear Power Plant - God forbid.
In the US, Orange Man Bad appears to be ahead of Cackling Kamala in the latest polls and is outperforming her on the battlefield - from which she is noticeably absent. This side of the pond, Europe is failing to convince the RoW that it has a pulse and Western Institutions such as the UN are showing themselves to be impotent and therefore irrelevant. BRICS will eventually replace them. The Summit is not far away.
Finally, Putin met with Iranian President Pezeshkian in Ashgabat but the post meeting statements were quite bland: ‘relationships are developing very successfully’, according to the former and ‘the partnership between Iran and Russia in the cultural and economic spheres is strengthening daily’ according to the latter. They will meet again in Kazan to sign a ‘strategic cooperation agreement’.
Happy Birthday Mr. President
China celebrated with an image of Putin projected onto the sky through drones - as you can see here.
Meanwhile, a brave woman in Odessa, climbed a monument, unfurled a Russian flag and stood there bravely in spite of being attacked as you can see here. She faces two years in prison.
I saw this on Slavyangrad. Apparently some hackers posted the following on a Ukrainian site:
On the 7th October, Vladimir Vladimirovich celebrates his 72nd birthday. All the people of Ukraine congratulate their future president on the holiday and wish him to rule these lands until the end of time. We wish you to achieve the most ambitious goals - to de-Nazify Zelensky with a dagger and raise the flag over the Russian city of Odessa. Happy holiday. Glory to Russia.
I have no way of confirming this but a friend once told me that you shouldn’t let the truth get in the way of a good story! In trivial matters, I think that’s fine.
CIS Summit
Representatives of The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) met this week to discuss security issues and increasing cooperation. The leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Krygyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were present. The leader of Moldova was invited but did not attend. You can read more at Pravda. The summit made a commitment to challenging a revival of Nazi or fascist ideas and adopted a statement on cooperation to ensure security and the application of international law in Eurasia.
According to Tass:
The CIS foreign ministers also spoke in favor of cooperation between integration associations in Eurasia, including the CIS, EAEU, SCO, ASEAN, Asia Cooperation Dialogue, and Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf. The participants in the meeting stressed the need for abandoning politicization in the fight against terrorism and the inadmissibility of weakening the international legal system of drug control.
Lavrov Gives a Warning
In an interview, Sergei Lavrov warned that if the West gives Ukraine permission - and assistance - to use long range missiles: ‘Russia’s response measures will already be in effect’ (Devastating effect).
Grim Forecast
According to a Ukrainian source, Zelensky recently received a forecast provided by his General Staff predicting that Ukraine will lose the whole of the Donbass in 2025. This was shown to Sleepy Joe Biden who did not comment other than to advise that Ukraine look at formats for freezing the war.
Oleksii Arestovich, former advisor to Z, is even more pessimistic in claiming that the front could collapse in 2-3 months. He blamed the administration for failing to build up Ukrainian forces and having unrealistic objectives such as a return to the 1991 borders. This objectives have demoralised Ukrainian soldiers who realise they are not achievable.
Grim Statistic?
The above photo of a Ukrainian cemetery is circulating on the internet. The sign reads: ‘Here lie the unidentified remains of a defender of Ukraine, serial number 214,350’. I have heard other claims similar to this but I am not saying that I accept this figure. I am including it to remind everyone that according to some estimates, Ukrainian losses could be much higher. The same applies to Palestinian civilian losses in Gaza.
Ukraine Mobilisation Problems
The planned Ukrainian mobilisation has managed to recruit less than half what was expected and hoped for. Recruitment to the TCC (the ‘recruiters’) has dried up completely, probably due the hatred ordinary Ukrainians have for these people. According to a report from a Ukrainian source, many more Ukrainians are accepting mobilisation but are going home after being sent to the front. Apparently, the TCC will not bother them once they return home. Yet 81% of Ukrainians still believe they can beat Russia with Western assistance, according to a survey.
Foreign Officers Can Join Army
The Verkhovna Rada has passed a law which will allow foreigners to be officers in the Ukrainian Army. This comes as no surprise given the fact that Ukraine has lost most of its officers and will need NATO replacements.
Zelensky - ‘Gimme the Missiles Now!’
Apparently, Zelensky has spoken to New NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressing his annoyance that he hasn’t been given the long range missiles to kill civilians in Moscow. He is losing patience, according to this report.
In another interview, he explained the Kursk adventure: ‘The Kursk operation motivates those who give us weapons’, he said. In other words, Kursk is all about PR, which will anger many.
Z Nominated For the Nobel Peace Prize
In the Orwellian world of a falling Empire defeat is victory, villains are heroes and war is peace. Barack Obama, who took the US into more wars than any other US president was rewarded with the Nobel Peace Prize and now the once great Z, who vowed to bring peace to Ukraine but brought war instead was nominated for the Prize. He didn’t win.
Ramstein Cancelled
The meeting between the UK, US, France, Germany and Ukraine scheduled for Oct 12th at Ramstein airbase in Germany has been postponed because Sleepy Joe is unable to attend due to the arrival of Hurricane Milton in Florida. Some say that the cancellation/postponement could have been inspired by Zelensky’s ‘Victory Plan’.
Z On Tour Again
On October 10th, the once great Z met with Two Tier Kier begging for money before presenting his ‘Victory Plan’. Then he begged for permission to use British ‘Stormshadows’ to kill Russian civilians in Moscow. You can see from this short video that Starmer’s Siberian cat ran away when Z arrived at number 10 Downing Street. Let’s hope Starmer is infected by the same Zelensky curse that has afflicted so many European leaders. He also visited Paris and ate a croissant - apparently. Then he visited Olaf Scholtz in Germany. One Ukrainian source suggests that the Ukrainians don’t really believe in the ‘Victory Plan’ which is simply a fundraising vehicle.
Bezugla - She’s Back!
Maryana Bezugla has got the bit between her teeth and will not let go. Recently, she delivered several salvoes against poor General Syrsky including:
As the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, you have only exacerbated the degeneracy of the highest military command and may go down in history in disgrace.
The recent loss of another two Patriot Systems, she said, is due to the:
absence of a system, which the current generals are simply unable to build due to their IQ, lack of desire and corruption.
I had forgotten that Maryana was involved in some controversy last November, which I reported on in the first Update for December. At that time, she was very critical of the fact that Zaluzhny had not come up with a ‘plan’. She also called for changes in the organisational structures of the armed forces. You can read more here. Maryana has a medical degree which had a military and organisational/management aspect and she served a government internship which gave her a qualification in the organisation and management of healthcare. So, she is an organiser and maybe she can recognise poor organisation when she sees it. I have no idea whether she is being used or not by some faction or other. But I’d like to believe that this is the case of someone who is confident in her abilities and is just sticking to her guns in slamming what she sees as shoddy work.
Military Mutiny?
Oleg Soskin, former adviser to a previous Ukrainian President, believes that a military mutiny is imminent because soldiers will not tolerate the abuse inflicted upon them. The sacrificial destruction of the 72nd Brigade at Ugledar served as a lesson, he said. The soldiers will come with weapons to use against those responsible:
Now you are speeding in an uncontrolled vehicle straight toward the station 'rebellion'—harsh, bloody, and merciless.
HIMARS Defeated
According to a Ukrainian source, the Russians have reduced the effectiveness of HIMARS systems by 90%. The source, which quotes a report by two retired American servicemen who have visited Ukraine, also claims that any innovations the Ukrainians develop on the battlefields are counteracted by the Russians within weeks.
West Not Listening
I sometimes get the impression that some Western leaders have a problem with hearing and listening: they refuse to hear or listen to Russia’s legitimate security concerns even though the likes of Lavrov, Putin and Medvedev have been speaking eloquently of these things for years. Now the Financial Times has teamed up with old Stolty to advocate for Ukrainian NATO membership even if its territory is ‘temporarily reduced’. Finland gave up territory, old Stolty reminded us, but remained an independent state. You can read more at the FT. Some are calling this the ‘West German model’ - as discussed by the Duran here.
They simply don’t get it do they: whether through pure arrogance or stupidity, I have no idea. If I were Russian, I would be inclined to forget about any negotiations other than unconditional surrender and I would make sure that no part of Ukraine remains under Western control. Ukraine is in no position to make any decisions regarding the territory it retains and the West cannot help it. This is the battlefield reality which should be a starting point for negotiations. I am not saying that this will happen, but I can’t see any incentive for Russia to do otherwise.
Ukraine Used Chemical Weapons in Kursk
I have reported Ukraine’s use of chemical weapons on a number of occasions previously and it continues to use them. On Monday, 7th October, Chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov advised that the Ukrainians had used chemical weapons in Sudzha (Kursk) back in August. These took the form of smoke shells as part of 155mm cluster munitions and are known to have contained chlorine. They were part of a batch of 3,800 shells supplied by the West to Ukraine in September 2023. You can read more at Tass or you can get more detail on the Russian MoD Telegram channel.
Polish Mercenaries Murder Russian Civilians in Kursk
Residents of Sudzha in Kursk are claiming that Polish mercenaries murdered a group of civilians during their ‘incursion’. The soldiers rounded up old people and the young and shot them in front of everyone. This is not the first report I’ve seen of atrocities in Kursk, including murder, rape, abductions and holding people in ‘camps’. You can read more at RT. According to Sputnik, there are large quantities of foreign mercenaries involved in the terrorist attack on Kursk.
Ukraine Terrorist Attacks (those that target civilians)
4th/5th October
In Belgorod region overnight drones attacked dwellings and moving vehicles. Seven civilians were wounded. Gorlovka (DPR) was attacked with cluster munitions while a drone drop injured one person
5th/6th October
I couldn’t find any reports for this period.
6th/7th October
Ukrainian drones attacked Bryansk and Kursk regions overnight. Many villages in Belgorod region came under attack from shelling and drones but only two people were injured. In Donetsk, one man was killed by shelling and in Gorlovka a man was killed by previously unexploded cluster munitions while a woman was injured by drone drop. Voronezh was also attacked.
7th/8th October
Many villages in Belgorod region suffered shelling and drone attacks overnight. A man was injured when a drone attacked his car and another was injured when a drone hit his tractor. Elsewhere in Belgorod, drones struck two social facilities and burned down an apartment. In Shebekino, a married couple was injured by drone attack. In the DPR, a woman was injured by barrel artillery and a man was seriously injured ‘due to the detonation of an explosive object’.
8th/9th October
Overnight, 12 drones were shout down over Bryansk Region and 10 over Rostov. In Shebekino (Belgorod), three people were injured by shelling and in the DPR two men were killed by drone drops. According to the Russian MoD, a total of 47 drones were shot down by air defences.
9th/10th October
Overnight, drones caused fires in Krasnador region and in Maykop, according to the Two Majors. I have no idea what the Ukrainians were targeting. Three civilians were wounded by shelling in Shebekino (Belgorod). Enterprises in several villages were damaged by drones but no further casualties were reported. In Donetsk City (DPR) three civilians were injured by shelling. 47 drones were destroyed over Krasnador, 12 over Kursk, nine over Rostov, 4 over Bryansk and 2 over Belgorod, according to Sputnik
10th/11th October
Overnight, two aircraft type drones were shot down over Bryansk and four more were disabled electronically over Rostov Region. Shebekino in Belgorod suffered shelling which caused some damage and injured two civilians. A car was attacked by a drone in Borisovka injuring the driver.
The Sea War
6th/7th October
According to the Military Chronicle, the Ukrainians launched a combined drone/ATACMS attack on Crimea. 12 drones were shot down but some ATACMs missiles managed to get through and set several fuel tanks alight in Feodosia (Crimea). At least three people were injured during the attack. You can read more at Slavyangrad.
9th/10th October
Overnight, 2 drones were shout down over Crimea and a further 12 were destroyed over the Sea of Azov.
The Air war (Map)
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
5th/6th October Overnight
Overnight, the Russians launched a massive attack on Ukraine’s rear which covered 13 regions but focused on Vinnytsia, Kiev and Odessa. The Odessa ports, including Yuzhny, were attacked with Iskanders and at least 100 ‘Geraniums’. In Kiev, Kh-101 cruise missiles were used in an attack that lasted 5 hours. According to this report, a container ship was in Yuzhny port offloading ammunition when it was hit causing massive explosions.
6th/7th October
According to the Military Chronicle:
Last night and in the morning, military facilities on Ukrainian territory were hit by a combined strike. Kinzhals worked on the Kiev region, as well as western regions, such as Khmelnytskyi region. According to preliminary data, the military airfield of Starokonstantinov in Khmelnitsky region, where the remaining air force of the AFU often "sleeps", has been hit again.
Cherkassy, Konotop, Sumy, Baturin, Chernigov, Sinelnikovo and Dnepropetrovsk were also attacked.
7th/8th October
According to the Military Chronicle:
Two dozen Geranium-2s attacked fuel and lubricants depots in Odessa at night. Arrivals at the port in Ilyichevsk at the time of unloading were also noted. It flew en masse to the airfield in Starokonstantinov. Russian air defense shot down 16 enemy UAVs overnight.
The Russians also attacked Ukraine’s military infrastructure in Starokostiantyniv and Kyiv with Kinzhal missiles.
8th/9th October
Overnight, three Iskander missiles were launched against Poltava while six more attacked Kremenchuk. An underground ammunition assembly unit was hit in Krivoy Rog (Kryvyi Rih) causing local earth quake censors to register 3.3. on the Richter Scale. Ukrainian military targets in Odessa were also hit. The port of Ilyichevsk was hit by Geraniums as you can see here.
9th/10th October
Overnight, the port of Ilyichevsk was attacked with Iskander missiles according to a Ukrainian report. According to this report, military cargo ship was hit in the port causing explosions.
10th/11th October
Odessa came under attack overnight, according to the Two Majors. Port infrastructure was damaged.
Ukrainian Missile/Drone Attacks
8th/9th October
According to the Military Chronicle, an arsenal was attacked in the city of Karachev (Bryansk) causing explosions that lasted hours. The Yeisk airfield in Krasnador was also attacked. Khanskaya airfield in Adygea was also attacked.
The Ground War
Russian MoD Reports (excludes Kursk)
w/e 20th September 16,810 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 553.
w/e 27th Sept 16,640, Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 698.
w/e October 4th 16,650 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 536.
w/e October 11th, 14,430 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 483
Kursk
According to the Russian MoD:
Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 21,900 troops, 144 tanks, 69 infantry fighting vehicles, 98 armoured personnel carriers, 897 armoured fighting vehicles, 594 motor vehicles, 181 artillery guns, 34 MLRS launchers, including eight of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the U.S., nine SAM launchers, five transport-loading vehicles, 47 electronic warfare stations and nine counter-battery radars, three air defence radars, 22 engineering and other vehicles, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, and three armoured recovery vehicles.
The Fronts
Front Line Cats
Kursk
On the 10th October, the Russians broke through Lyubimovka and were attacking to the rear at Zeleny Shlyakh. If this latter is taken, Ukrainians in the former will be cut off. A Ukrainian source reported that Syrsky does not have the reserves to prevent this from happening.
On October 11th, the Military Chronicle gave this short report:
It is reported that during the offensive in the last two days, Russian units liberated five settlements between Korenevo and Sudzha, at least two battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were surrounded. The enemy command hastily transfers the 47th brigade to Lyubimovka, which has been swarming under the strikes of the Aerospace Forces on the border with the Glushkovsky district for two weeks.
The Ukrainians are also on the verge of defeat at Ogovka, according to Slavyangrad. Weeb Union provides a Sitrep here. The consensus view among commentators is that the Kursk front is collapsing fast.
Kharkov
Fighting is still going on in Volchansk as the Russians attack Ukrainians entrenched near the flour mill in the western part of the town.
Kupyansk
By the end of the week, the Russians were able to advance 1 km from Kotlyarovka to the Oskol River and take up new positions on the Kupyansk-Svatovo highway. One report suggests that the Russians have entered the village of Petropavlivka (close to Kupyansk).
Seversk
Chasiv Yar
Toretsk
By the end of the week, fighting continued in the centre of Toretsk and around the Tstentralnaya mine. The Ukrainians still cling to the waste heaps. The Russians are also fighting north of Novgorodskoye, according to the Majors.
Pokrovsk
Marat Khairullin is claiming that the Ukrainians were using civilians as human shields in Pokrovsk anticipating a frontal assault on the city. But when it became clear that the Russians intended to surround the city, the Ukrainians began killing civilians so they could blame the Russians for the atrocity. You can read more here. I have no confirmation of this but Khairullin has been reporting such atrocities for a while. By the end of the week, the Russians had made advances towards Lysivka (not on map) and to the south of Selidovo.
Selidove
By the end of the week, the Russians had advanced in the western outskirts of Tsukurino and had progressed more than a kilometer from the southern outskirts of Selidovo towards the village of Vishnevoye. It is claimed that the Ukrainians are preparing to leave Selidovo. Fighting continues in the direction of Ostrovskoye, near Katerinovka (Yekaterinovka) and in Maksimilyanovka.
Uhledar
By the 10th October, the Russians were advancing north of Uhledar having beaten off Ukrainian counter-attacks. According to a resident of Uhledar who never abandoned the city: ‘We waited for you for two years and seven months. And now we feel light in our hearts, having seen you." You can listen to her on this Telegram Channel. By the end of the week fighting continued only in Bogoyavlenka.
Zaporozhye
I have seen reports that the Russians are building up forces in the Orekhov - Rabotinsky directions according to Voloshin, a representative of the Southern Defence Forces. On the 4th October, 400 attacks were made on Zaporozhye in just 24 hours: these are expected to intensify. By the end of the week, heavy fighting was reported in Kamenskoye.
Kherson
Fighting continues around the village of Dnepryany where the Russians are using mortars while the Ukrainians are deploying kamikaze drones.
The Economic War
EU Should Charge China For Flying Over Russia
The CEO of Royal Dutch Airlines, Marjan Rintel, is urging the EU to charge China for flying it planes over Russia. Rintel explained:
Russia's airspace is closed to European airlines, while Chinese carriers fly over it, which can save two to four hours. You see that reflected in pricing, and consequently, our costs are higher.
Financial measures should be introduced in order to curb this ‘unfair competition’, he said.
These people are unbelievable. They penalise themselves by placing sanctions on Russia, prompting retaliation, then they complain that China is benefiting because they would not do the same. There’s an easy way out of this Mr. Rintel: Lift Sanctions on Russia.
The Financial Cost of War for Ukraine
One Ukrainian source, has published staggering figures relating to the financial cost of the war. In total, this amounts to $1.16 trillions - which is equivalent to 20 years labour by the Ukrainian population. Losses include: Trade - $450 billion; Industry - $409 billions; agriculture - $83.1 billions; Energy - $43.1 billions; Transportation $38.8 billions. There is much more that you read about here.
German Economy Collapsing
The German economy is collapsing much faster than predicted. Factory orders are down 5.8% in August compared to the previous month and 3.9% compared to August of last year. The predicted decline was only 1.9%. The automotive industry has experienced an 8.1% month on month drop. You can read more at RT. Economic forecasts, according to Minister Robert Habeck, have been revised downwards from 0.3% growth to minus 0.2% - according to Sputnik.
World Politics
Ayatollah Khamenei Threatens Israel
The Iranian leader warned Israel against attacking Iran: ‘If the occupiers make such a mistake, we will target all their energy sources, installations and all refineries and gas fields’. He was gripping a rifle when he spoke these words, according to Zero Hedge.
Iran Could Change Nuclear Weapons Policy
According to Sputnik:
A group of 39 Iranian parliamentarians has asked the Iranian Supreme National Security Council to revise the country's defense doctrine, in particular to allow the creation of nuclear weapons because of the threat of an Israeli attack
This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who has been following the ME conflict.
Giora Eiland - Israel Can’t Win
Retired Israeli General Eiland, who called for the starvation of civilians in Gaza, is now saying (according to a Palestinian source) that a military victory over Hamas and Hezbollah is not possible:
In the current fighting, Israel will not achieve "absolute victory" in Gaza and Lebanon. Hamas and Hezbollah will not surrender, and there will always be those who will continue to fire. Continuing fighting on both fronts does not serve Israel's interests, so it is right to open the door to political arrangements on both fronts.
Protests Germany
Thousands of Germans have taken to the streets of Berlin to protest the country’s policy of arming Ukraine and called for a ceasefire. The rally took place on ‘Unification Day’ when East Germany united with the West.
In Berlin and other German cities protests over the weekend pro-Palestinian demonstrators commemorated the start of the Middle East conflict on October 7th calling for an end to genocide - not an unreasonable request.
Anti AfD demonstrations were also held around the country. Maybe the AfD should organise its own demonstrations in favour of banning the SPD - that ‘extremist’, pro-European anti-Democratic centre-left Party presided over by warmonger Scholz. This is the political equivalent of social media censorship and Wokism. If someone disagrees with your ideas, you simply cancel them: this is the real basis for the call to ban AfD (see below).
Protests London
According to Socialist Worker, 300,000 people demonstrated in London on the 5th October on a march that ended near Downing Street. The event marked the beginning of the Gaza conflict on the 7th October.
Protest Washington/New York
At a pro-Palestine demo in Washington on the 5th October a journalist set his arm alight in protest at his profession’s silent complicity in the murder of thousands of innocents in Gaza. Police quickly extinguished the fire.
Thousands of protesters marched in New York on the 7th October as you can read here. The march ended at Grand Central Station and was largely peaceful.
Protests Toronto
Thousands marched in Toronto on October 5th protesting against arms supplies to Israel and the mass slaughter of innocent civilians. You can read more here and see some brief footage here.
Protests South Africa
Around 5,000 people demonstrated in Cape Town, urging the government to sever all ties with Israel and impose sanctions on the genocidal Israeli regime until a ceasefire is achieved. You can read more from this Palestinian source.
Demonstrations against Israel took place all around the world this weekend as you can read here.
Ban The AfD
Some politicians in Germany want to ban the ‘far right’ Alternative for Germany Party (AfD), claiming that it is wants to end democracy. The Socialist Worker’s Party has called it a fascist organisation. As far as I can see, the AfD is definitely not fascist and is not opposed to liberal democracy. However, it opposes immigration, it is opposed to Muslims, it is against the undemocratic EU, it is against funding Ukraine and it doesn’t believe in man made global warming (AGW). I think these are probably the main reasons for the proposed ban. However, it should be noted that the leader of the Party in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, has been accused of claiming that Germany should not ashamed of its Nazi past - but this may not be true. But Höcke is not representative of the membership or its voters and some have attempted to expel him from the party. You can read more about the AfD at the Financial Times. Michael Heaver provides a brief account of the move to ban the party here.
Macron/Barnier In Trouble
A vote of no confidence has been called against Michele Barnier who was recently appointed PM by Emmanuel Macron. Barnier does not represent the many ‘left wing’ and ‘right wing’ voters who dominated the recent election so it was only a matter of time before efforts were made to remove him. A recent poll showed that Macron’s disapproval rating has risen to a staggering 72%. Barnier’s disapproval rating was a little better at 54%. You can learn more at Michael Heaver (2 mins). The French people face a 40 billion Euro budget cut in 2025.
19th East Asia Summit - 11th October, Laos
The 19th East Asean Summit was attended by leaders and representatives from Asean countries, including Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Representatives of China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand, Russia and the United States also attended. Since its inception in 2005, the EAS has served as a platform for dialogue on broad strategic issues of relevance to East Asia as well as other regional and global issues, with the goal of promoting peace, stability and shared prosperity in East Asia and beyond. You can read more here. On the sidelines, Sergei Lavrov talked about establishing a Eurasian security framework, according to Sputnik. But according to Lavrov, Japan, the US, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea made sure that no consensus was reached on security. These countries wish to extend NATO into the Pacific.
Comrade Kamala Cackles
Cackling Kamala is going from weakness to weakness in her election campaign as she demonstrates the art of not answering questions. Her ratings appear to be plummeting as people begin to see how shallow she is. Commenting on future negotiations relating to the Ukraine conflict, she said she would not negotiate with Putin unless Kiev was represented, labouring under the illusion that Putin gives a damn and that Ukraine will have a say in its own future. Kamala also cackled that if Trump wins he will capitulate within a day. But why is this such a bad idea Kamala dear? If a boxer is spreadeagled on the canvas with blood pouring from his nostrils and his eyes almost shut, wouldn’t it be best to end the fight for his sake? But Kamala takes the view that the fighter should be dragged to his feet with his knees shaking and placed up against the ropes so that his opponent can provide the coup de gras.
Showing her total lack of any diplomatic skills, Kamala also cackled that Putin, Kim Jong Un, Victor Orban and Xi Jinping are ‘people who have been well described as murderers'. Sleepy Joe has taught her well.
But anyone who is facilitating Israeli genocides (plural) is complicit in murder, are they not: that includes you Kamala. A Russian spokesman suggested that the insults arise out of Western impotence.
Trump Fumbles
With regard to Ukraine, Trump has said that he simply wants to stop the killing, which is laudable, but he should adopt the same principle to the Middle East War. Instead, he is allowing the Israeli-Palestine conflict to become an election issue in which he is trying to outdo the Democrats as a warmonger with regard to Israel but is a peacemaker when it comes to Ukraine. This makes no sense politically (unless he is getting millions from the Israelis for his election campaign) because only 33% of Americans are sympathetic to Israel. If Trump wants to come across as a man of principle with regard to war, he will not succeed by threatening Iran and allowing Israel to do what it wants. If you hold a view that ‘the killing must stop’ this must apply even more strongly when thousands of innocents are being killed as they are in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon. Let’s hope that Trump will see sense once he is (if he is) elected.
US Hurricane Victims Want Ukraine to Return Their Money
One of the most obscene aspects of the Ukraine conflict is the gigantic amounts of money being wasted on destruction which could be put to better use. Here in the UK, pensioners would prefer to have their cold weather payments rather than paying for Ukrainians to kill Russians. In the US, hurricane victims are being given a paltry $750 when more than a $100 billions has gone to Ukraine. Some, like the woman shown here, are asking for their ‘mother f…ing money back’.
The emerging Multi-Polar World Order
Guterres To Attend BRICS
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres will be attending the BRICS summit in Kazan.
Syria/Cuba To Join BRICS
Bashar Jaafari, Syrian ambassador to Russia has said that he will be applying to join BRICS. Cuba is applying to join as a ‘partner country'.
BRICS Driving World Economic Growth
According to an article in RT (which I can’t share), BRICS countries account for 36.7% of GDP Purchasing Power Parity. With an average growth rate of 4.4% they are way ahead of the G7 countries which average only 1.7%.
Jaishankar Calls UN an ‘Old Company’
The Indian Foreign Minister has criticised the UN for being unable to deal with world conflicts and pandemics. He compared the UN with an ‘old company’ that is not keeping up with the marketplace but is still ‘occupying space’. Urgent reform is needed ‘to make multilateral institutions more effective and representative of emerging economies and underdeveloped nations’. India, Brazil and South Africa have expressed ‘frustration with the paralysis’ of negotiations to expand the UNSC so that it is more representative of the whole world than its current anachronistic form. You can read more at RT.
That’s it for another week. Many thanks for you views, subscriptions, follows, likes, shares and comments. For those who don’t know, I publish a small number of articles on politics and philosophy that can be accessed only through subscription or my Telegram Channel. This week I published something about the ME conflict, for example. I should point out that I am having problems accessing RT ‘archive’ and am not sure if this temporary or not. You can still access RT through Brave - go to the top right hand menu and choose ‘private window in Tor’. When this loads type in RT. You can also access RT videos on Rumble. Best Rob
"Most commentators are asking whether the Israeli tail is wagging the American dog or vice versa but I’ve no room to discuss that here."
Definitely best to stay out of that, since it's essentially a "religious war" between "analysts" or what we in the computer field used to call "flame wars". I did weigh in on Gilbert Doctorow's and Larry Johnson's blogs to say "both sides are right - which is why both sides are wrong." As is always the case when people make a binary "either-or" argument.
" I would make sure that no part of Ukraine remains under Western control. "
That's exactly what Russia will do, as I've said since April, 2022.
As for the Iranian parliamentarians calling for a change in Iran's nuclear doctrine, Karl Sanchez's Substack article on the ASEAN meeting today quoted Lavrov as saying something to the effect that "we've seen members of parliaments say things that are contrary to a country's official and practical interests before" - in other words, forget about it and rely on the IAEA reports which show no movement whatever to a nuclear weapons program.
Basically he was blowing off the "Iran nuclear test" story which was an obvious propaganda ploy to justify the upcoming US-Israel attack on Iran - which, by the way, I am fairly sure will be executed by both the US and Israel directly, not just US support. Everything coming of Washington on that possibility has been utter BS.
Any time Biden or his crowd is quoted as telling Israel to do something or that the US will do something, take the exact opposite as being the truth. Biden has allegedly told Israel not to attack Iran's oil or nuclear facilities - utter nonsense.
Mercouris was on Colonel Davis yesterday. I had to turn it off once both of them started talking about "what is Israel's strategic plan?" to which they apparently had zero clue. Israel's "strategic plan" has always been - as I've said for 17 years - to make the US fight the war for them. And yet we have two so-called "analysts" that still can't figure that out.
At this point I'm reduced to only listening to Pepe Escobar and Alastair Crooke. Literally everyone else is clueless.
I dont know if it is your academic background but it better structured than the others and well written. For eg, a year from now if someone wanted to find out what happened during the week ending 11 October 2024 in the Ukraine war what would be the best blog to retrieve the information? MOA is good but inconsistent as is Simplicius with the occasional sitrep etc. Your readership is high quality also, you can tell by the quality of the comments. I think GB may have self published. I will need to check. I thought you had taken early retirement. Must be the clean Borders air. In Dundee you are considered lucky if you make retirement age.