Israel has created a situation where Iran has to attack. The Iranians tried the limited response back in April and the warning wasn't heeded. The Iranians are making the same mistakes the Russians make with Ukraine. The principal mistake both Russia and Iran make is that they both think their opponents and the opponent's puppet master are rational. They aren't.
I agree that the Iranians will probably attack but I have no idea whether this will lead to further escalation but its not looking good. With regard to irrational Westerners, I think the Russians and Iranians have worked that out by now. Cheers.
The US and Israel are preparing for a repeat of their last retaliation, but I doubt that the Iranians are going to cooperate. They've already demonstrated that they can saturate the air defense system at will, I'm betting they're going to exploit some other hole in Israel's security (every country has them). Hopefully a targeted assassination of one of the resident lunatics like Gallant, Smotrich or Ben Gevir. Netanyahu is doing such a bang-up job of destroying Israel internationally they'd be foolish to touch him.
Great to see you back and thanks for the great update Rob.
The Ukrainian attack across the border from the Sumy region is an odd one.
Obviously major RF forces wont be present all along the border so as to avoid getting picked off on day one. So the mission was always going to succeed, (up to a point) when RF reserves arrive and in big concentrations)
I had been thinking for a few weeks that UA daily tank losses were falling and they were being kept back for something such as this.
Plus the UA units at the front were not being adequately reinforced and were/are ceding a lot of territory .
The attack, as most outlets are reporting. drives another wedge between between RF energy transfer to Europe via the Sudzha terminal.
So the war mongering West will benefit from that. Their tactics and ISR fingerprints are all over this.
The Kursk Nuclear power station is not far from the area so the mini invasion does add a certain sort of urgency or severity even,
This all aids the attempts by the Banderite regime to instil fear in the Russian population and also generates propaganda at home and abroad.
I caught a quick BBC news 'disinformation' broadcast on Friday that celebrated the UA efforts of throwing 3 brigades to their deaths whilst running around targeting innocent civilians in an undefended border area.
Will the UA manage to consolidate their captured positions and fortify the buildings to create another drawn out pointless. meatgrinder?
Is this a bargaining chip for negotiations. Or is it perhaps a distraction away from another offensive to be launched soon?
Thanks again for the update and lets see what next week brings.
I wasn't surprised by an offensive but didn't expect it to happen when and where it did. It is still possible that this was meant to distract from an offensive yet to come. Some Ukrainian commentators believe this is the only possible justification for the Kursk incursion - otherwise it is a waste of men and materiel.
Yes Rob it is difficult to see what comes next from the West's lapdogs Zelensky and co. Nearly everything they have done so far doesn't follow any rational logic.
As usual throwing away lives.
Just like the marine army wasted trying to cross and hold the Dniepr bridgeheads
Is it Ukraine's variation on Sun Tzu art or war (with a bit of Western advice) to just try the opposite of what is logical?
Some - such as Larry Johnson and Dave from the Deep dive - are saying that its down to the incompetence of Ukraine's leadership. It's Krynki all over again. I believe that they are prioritising image over substance but the incursion didn't get very much of publicity.
Supposedly Z & co were incited into attacking Kursk direction by British Intelligence - atleast few sources say that it was Brits who told Ukros that RU was removing mines from their roads on the border there, possibly in preparation of an attack that was to come later.
Z took the bait and attacked, could be that the actual goal is to take out the gas pipeline junction as you say, neither the US or UK would mind EU getting screwed again on that front.
Most likely if this is the case, it will lower the foreign relations of UK with RU and other non-western countries even further, and the regular EU citizens probably are not too happy about the rising energy costs...
It would be no surprise if UK intelligence was involved. As for the gas pipeline/metering station, I have no idea whether the Ukrainians hold that but I haven't heard that has been blown up yet.
The language thing is getting a bit over the top, all the accusations of Biden et al being far left are risible. As to the far right who knows? I would think that the governments in the West whether they claim to be left or right are pretty right wing. They have all cloaked themselves in Thatcher's garb and dragged the line further rightwards. Things that were unthinkable in the 1970's are now accepted with barely a shrug. It is still pretty much "when the shit hits the fan, blame a migrant". I'm waiting for Pinochet to be declared a centrist.
I was a lefty from 1990 (until 2018), went through a brief Trotskyite phase but soon realised that Marxism and feminism are dogmas. However, I have never lost faith in the idea that a working class movement (or maybe a populist movement) has the potential to create a better world. But at the moment, the divisions are too great. Someone on Telegram speculated that the Muslims, Catholics and Protestants could unite against the real enemy - i.e. Keir Starmer. Fantasy I know, but I would love to see that happen.
Thanks for your response Rob. I consider myself a person of the left but what that now means I can't really say as language has been turned on it's head.
I think what it means for me a decision making process that comes via a collective choice that benefits the vast majority rather than the top down bullying that we now see in the West.
In the past I have felt that revolutions were so destructive that the baby is thrown out with the bath water and things go back the same way but with a different set of cynics in charge. I think that the current setup is catastrophic for most people and getting worse and I reckon we are heading for the tumbrils unless something changes. The reason why people aren't up in arms in my view is that there is still enough fat in the system that most people aren't totally under the pump so they are unhappy but not unhappy enough to take to the streets, yet.
I don't know what I am anymore as I have quite a lot of sympathy for the positions of ordinary people who are attracted to what is described as the far right, but I am usually opposed to the right at least as to how it shows itself in the Anglo world. I used to think that globalism would be a good thing where people could come and go as they pleased, but that is only available to a cohort from the wealthier areas of the planet, and has proven to be just another form of colonialism for the benefit of western capital. We are definitely living in interesting times.
There are so many issues that divide people today in the West that unity will be hard to achieve. This state of affairs has been encouraged by elites of course. So although the potential is there, I am not optimistic it will happen in my lifetime. You are right about the dangers of revolutions which will not necessarily change the world for the better. As for the label, I am still a libertarian socialist (or a communitarian anarchist) but would prefer to be called a populist than a lefty. Have you read 'National Populism: the revolt against liberal democracy' Roger Eatwell and Matthew Goodwin?
At least the Ardennes Offensive (wacht am Rhein) had a stated goal - i.e. Antwerp - though most German commanders realised that this was an impossibility. The claims about Ukrainians disguised as Russians reminded me of the Bulge along with the shape of the advance. A US film entitled Watch on the Rhine came out in 1943. Hitler was a US film buff - so I wonder if this is where he got the code name for the offensive?
It seemed plausible but apparently it was an old German patriotic song so I suspect the film was named after the song. Without getting too philosophical i wonder how those young guys attacking in Kursk can go mostly willingly. I can understand being highly motivated at the start of a conflict but years in with most of those who have gone before you lying in their graves or worse. Seems futile to me.
Yes - if it were an old German song it is more likely to have been chosen for that reason. I think Hitler was mostly into Hollywood Westerns. I get the distinct impression, from the dissident Ukrainian Telegram channels I look at, that there is very little enthusiasm for the war left. More and more of them are beginning to see it as futile.
Nice recap, as always. As you noted, Bernhard covered the Kursk incursion the other day, and Martyano savaged all the "military channels" on Telegram for their "reporting":
QUOTE:
About Local Clowns And "Military Summary"...
... crap which people who for some time reading this blog learned absolutely nothing. I reiterate. Read attentively.
1. So called Dima and Military Summary channel is not a source of any competent and verified military information.
2. This Dima is most likely either passive or active asset of TSIPSO, because he spreads a lot of 404 propaganda;
3. Like most such "channels"--those "Dimas" have zero military expertise, have no military education or service record even as privates, let alone operational level officers;
4. None of them are in it for serious analysis, because they don't know what it is and have zero real military sources or access to competent military circles, none, professionals would laugh at them, and they are doing this for a variety of reasons: small dick, ambition, money, validation, being cowards and fanboys et al.
4. I will mercilessly prevent any kinds of references to these entertainers and info-clowns on this blog, many of who are conduits for TSIPSO and GUR misinformation and propaganda.
END QUOTE
"He also highlights the absurdity of calling the protesters ‘right wing extremists"
That's not the impression I got from some of the stuff I've read - not that I spent a lot of time worrying about riots in what is essentially a "Third World" country, at this point. But this guy Tommy Robinson appears to have been a flashpoint and appears to definitely be "far-right" if not an outright Nazi.
As for Russia delivering S-400 to Iran, what's more important is that Russia allegedly delivered some sort of electronic warfare tech to Iran as well. This is the stuff that Russia used in Syria which downed 50-90% of US drones and Tomahawk cruise missiles Trump fired at Syria during his time. It's remarkably effective and covers huge ranges of territory. Supposedly the latesst version covers 3,000km. Alastair Crooke said on Judge Nap that GP throughout the Middle East is now fuzzy as a result. Having this stuff is better than having an S-400.
Reportedly this equipment is likely to be operated by Russian technicians, and reportedly the Russians have told the US that if the US attacks Iran and Russian personnel are killed, Russia will consider that an attack on Russia. I'd call that unconfirmed, but wouldn't be surprised if it were true.
Meanwhile everyone is waiting for the Iranian attack. I'm working on a Substack post on "The Coming Middle East War" which is now inevitable - if I can get my AI to help me organize the large number of articles I have on the subject.
I agree about Dima - he is not always a reliable source and prone to speculation. I mostly avoid him - especially when he is obviously using clickbait. With regard to the riots, it depends what you read or watch. I am not convinced there is any such thing as a coherent right wing movement - but that isn't to say there isn't one. The EDL closed down ten years ago. Thanks Richard.
Israel has created a situation where Iran has to attack. The Iranians tried the limited response back in April and the warning wasn't heeded. The Iranians are making the same mistakes the Russians make with Ukraine. The principal mistake both Russia and Iran make is that they both think their opponents and the opponent's puppet master are rational. They aren't.
I agree that the Iranians will probably attack but I have no idea whether this will lead to further escalation but its not looking good. With regard to irrational Westerners, I think the Russians and Iranians have worked that out by now. Cheers.
The US and Israel are preparing for a repeat of their last retaliation, but I doubt that the Iranians are going to cooperate. They've already demonstrated that they can saturate the air defense system at will, I'm betting they're going to exploit some other hole in Israel's security (every country has them). Hopefully a targeted assassination of one of the resident lunatics like Gallant, Smotrich or Ben Gevir. Netanyahu is doing such a bang-up job of destroying Israel internationally they'd be foolish to touch him.
Cheers - Gallant maybe. But the Iranians have hinted that they may hit some factories somewhere.
Great to see you back and thanks for the great update Rob.
The Ukrainian attack across the border from the Sumy region is an odd one.
Obviously major RF forces wont be present all along the border so as to avoid getting picked off on day one. So the mission was always going to succeed, (up to a point) when RF reserves arrive and in big concentrations)
I had been thinking for a few weeks that UA daily tank losses were falling and they were being kept back for something such as this.
Plus the UA units at the front were not being adequately reinforced and were/are ceding a lot of territory .
The attack, as most outlets are reporting. drives another wedge between between RF energy transfer to Europe via the Sudzha terminal.
So the war mongering West will benefit from that. Their tactics and ISR fingerprints are all over this.
The Kursk Nuclear power station is not far from the area so the mini invasion does add a certain sort of urgency or severity even,
This all aids the attempts by the Banderite regime to instil fear in the Russian population and also generates propaganda at home and abroad.
I caught a quick BBC news 'disinformation' broadcast on Friday that celebrated the UA efforts of throwing 3 brigades to their deaths whilst running around targeting innocent civilians in an undefended border area.
Will the UA manage to consolidate their captured positions and fortify the buildings to create another drawn out pointless. meatgrinder?
Is this a bargaining chip for negotiations. Or is it perhaps a distraction away from another offensive to be launched soon?
Thanks again for the update and lets see what next week brings.
I wasn't surprised by an offensive but didn't expect it to happen when and where it did. It is still possible that this was meant to distract from an offensive yet to come. Some Ukrainian commentators believe this is the only possible justification for the Kursk incursion - otherwise it is a waste of men and materiel.
Yes Rob it is difficult to see what comes next from the West's lapdogs Zelensky and co. Nearly everything they have done so far doesn't follow any rational logic.
As usual throwing away lives.
Just like the marine army wasted trying to cross and hold the Dniepr bridgeheads
Is it Ukraine's variation on Sun Tzu art or war (with a bit of Western advice) to just try the opposite of what is logical?
Some - such as Larry Johnson and Dave from the Deep dive - are saying that its down to the incompetence of Ukraine's leadership. It's Krynki all over again. I believe that they are prioritising image over substance but the incursion didn't get very much of publicity.
Supposedly Z & co were incited into attacking Kursk direction by British Intelligence - atleast few sources say that it was Brits who told Ukros that RU was removing mines from their roads on the border there, possibly in preparation of an attack that was to come later.
Z took the bait and attacked, could be that the actual goal is to take out the gas pipeline junction as you say, neither the US or UK would mind EU getting screwed again on that front.
Most likely if this is the case, it will lower the foreign relations of UK with RU and other non-western countries even further, and the regular EU citizens probably are not too happy about the rising energy costs...
Well noted. I had no idea about the pipeline until you posted. Aljazeera have a piece on it. Interesting angle.
It would be no surprise if UK intelligence was involved. As for the gas pipeline/metering station, I have no idea whether the Ukrainians hold that but I haven't heard that has been blown up yet.
Apparently the metering station is owned by Gazprom and is only 500 metres over the border so pretty safe to say is is in UA hands at present.
Thanks Rob. Another great update.
The language thing is getting a bit over the top, all the accusations of Biden et al being far left are risible. As to the far right who knows? I would think that the governments in the West whether they claim to be left or right are pretty right wing. They have all cloaked themselves in Thatcher's garb and dragged the line further rightwards. Things that were unthinkable in the 1970's are now accepted with barely a shrug. It is still pretty much "when the shit hits the fan, blame a migrant". I'm waiting for Pinochet to be declared a centrist.
I was a lefty from 1990 (until 2018), went through a brief Trotskyite phase but soon realised that Marxism and feminism are dogmas. However, I have never lost faith in the idea that a working class movement (or maybe a populist movement) has the potential to create a better world. But at the moment, the divisions are too great. Someone on Telegram speculated that the Muslims, Catholics and Protestants could unite against the real enemy - i.e. Keir Starmer. Fantasy I know, but I would love to see that happen.
Thanks for your response Rob. I consider myself a person of the left but what that now means I can't really say as language has been turned on it's head.
I think what it means for me a decision making process that comes via a collective choice that benefits the vast majority rather than the top down bullying that we now see in the West.
In the past I have felt that revolutions were so destructive that the baby is thrown out with the bath water and things go back the same way but with a different set of cynics in charge. I think that the current setup is catastrophic for most people and getting worse and I reckon we are heading for the tumbrils unless something changes. The reason why people aren't up in arms in my view is that there is still enough fat in the system that most people aren't totally under the pump so they are unhappy but not unhappy enough to take to the streets, yet.
I don't know what I am anymore as I have quite a lot of sympathy for the positions of ordinary people who are attracted to what is described as the far right, but I am usually opposed to the right at least as to how it shows itself in the Anglo world. I used to think that globalism would be a good thing where people could come and go as they pleased, but that is only available to a cohort from the wealthier areas of the planet, and has proven to be just another form of colonialism for the benefit of western capital. We are definitely living in interesting times.
There are so many issues that divide people today in the West that unity will be hard to achieve. This state of affairs has been encouraged by elites of course. So although the potential is there, I am not optimistic it will happen in my lifetime. You are right about the dangers of revolutions which will not necessarily change the world for the better. As for the label, I am still a libertarian socialist (or a communitarian anarchist) but would prefer to be called a populist than a lefty. Have you read 'National Populism: the revolt against liberal democracy' Roger Eatwell and Matthew Goodwin?
Agreed Ardennes 1944.
At least the Ardennes Offensive (wacht am Rhein) had a stated goal - i.e. Antwerp - though most German commanders realised that this was an impossibility. The claims about Ukrainians disguised as Russians reminded me of the Bulge along with the shape of the advance. A US film entitled Watch on the Rhine came out in 1943. Hitler was a US film buff - so I wonder if this is where he got the code name for the offensive?
It seemed plausible but apparently it was an old German patriotic song so I suspect the film was named after the song. Without getting too philosophical i wonder how those young guys attacking in Kursk can go mostly willingly. I can understand being highly motivated at the start of a conflict but years in with most of those who have gone before you lying in their graves or worse. Seems futile to me.
Yes - if it were an old German song it is more likely to have been chosen for that reason. I think Hitler was mostly into Hollywood Westerns. I get the distinct impression, from the dissident Ukrainian Telegram channels I look at, that there is very little enthusiasm for the war left. More and more of them are beginning to see it as futile.
Nice recap, as always. As you noted, Bernhard covered the Kursk incursion the other day, and Martyano savaged all the "military channels" on Telegram for their "reporting":
QUOTE:
About Local Clowns And "Military Summary"...
... crap which people who for some time reading this blog learned absolutely nothing. I reiterate. Read attentively.
1. So called Dima and Military Summary channel is not a source of any competent and verified military information.
2. This Dima is most likely either passive or active asset of TSIPSO, because he spreads a lot of 404 propaganda;
3. Like most such "channels"--those "Dimas" have zero military expertise, have no military education or service record even as privates, let alone operational level officers;
4. None of them are in it for serious analysis, because they don't know what it is and have zero real military sources or access to competent military circles, none, professionals would laugh at them, and they are doing this for a variety of reasons: small dick, ambition, money, validation, being cowards and fanboys et al.
4. I will mercilessly prevent any kinds of references to these entertainers and info-clowns on this blog, many of who are conduits for TSIPSO and GUR misinformation and propaganda.
END QUOTE
"He also highlights the absurdity of calling the protesters ‘right wing extremists"
That's not the impression I got from some of the stuff I've read - not that I spent a lot of time worrying about riots in what is essentially a "Third World" country, at this point. But this guy Tommy Robinson appears to have been a flashpoint and appears to definitely be "far-right" if not an outright Nazi.
As for Russia delivering S-400 to Iran, what's more important is that Russia allegedly delivered some sort of electronic warfare tech to Iran as well. This is the stuff that Russia used in Syria which downed 50-90% of US drones and Tomahawk cruise missiles Trump fired at Syria during his time. It's remarkably effective and covers huge ranges of territory. Supposedly the latesst version covers 3,000km. Alastair Crooke said on Judge Nap that GP throughout the Middle East is now fuzzy as a result. Having this stuff is better than having an S-400.
Reportedly this equipment is likely to be operated by Russian technicians, and reportedly the Russians have told the US that if the US attacks Iran and Russian personnel are killed, Russia will consider that an attack on Russia. I'd call that unconfirmed, but wouldn't be surprised if it were true.
Meanwhile everyone is waiting for the Iranian attack. I'm working on a Substack post on "The Coming Middle East War" which is now inevitable - if I can get my AI to help me organize the large number of articles I have on the subject.
I agree about Dima - he is not always a reliable source and prone to speculation. I mostly avoid him - especially when he is obviously using clickbait. With regard to the riots, it depends what you read or watch. I am not convinced there is any such thing as a coherent right wing movement - but that isn't to say there isn't one. The EDL closed down ten years ago. Thanks Richard.