The West's recent attacks on free speech: Richard Medhurst and Pavlov Durov, and the FBI's attempted intimidation of Scott Ritter, are ominous. It suggests that the West is clearing the decks for a big MSM propaganda effort on the coming WW3. Why now? Because all of the major oil producing nations are embracing BRICS+, and are some of 159 nations heading to the BRICS+ conference in Kazan in October. This is terrifying western nations, all of whom are in economic decline, partly due to the stupidity of taking on Russia, and threatening China and Iran.
It is not for nothing that Russia sent naval vessels to Cuba, months ago. I think that Doctorow is right. Though a Russian defence person spoke of obliterating the UK, that would still leave the head of the serpent in tact. Russia is closely watching every US move, and the minute it threatens Russia Washington will be toast. There is so much hubris in the Washington Consensus that the big worry is that they will ignore all the red flags that Russia is flying.
And what of the middle east? Why hasn't Iran struck back? Russia has been helping Iran get all its ducks in a row with S-400s, and I'm told S-500s, too. They appear to be playing the attrition game, because it will be much less costly to their civilians and infrastructure, They know that Israel grows weaker economically, and militarily, by the day, while their defences grow much stronger.
We live in interesting, but very dangerous, times.
I think you are right, most of the major oil producing nations are heading into BRICS+ and that scares the hell out of the US. Dangerous times, yes, but I'm glad to be living while this is happening.
I listened to Doctorow's concepts in a couple of places. As Scott Ritter and Larry Johnson pointed out, he's not a military expert and his 100-plane nuclear attack from the Med is fantasy - the planes would need refueling and that's hardly a "surprise attack. Of course, as Doctorow points out, what matters is what the Russians believe. But the Russian General Staff knows a fantasy when they see one, too.
Ritter has been hammering away at the likelihood that Russia will hit the US with nukes if US missiles are used by Ukraine inside Russia. I doubt that. Russia can do all sort of damage to the US outside the continental US and using hypersonics with conventional warheads to do so. What matters is what the US does then, not what Russia does.
For now it seems clear that Russia is busy arming anti-US parties such as North Korea and Ansarallah as well as Iran with some of their "overflow" advanced aircraft, AD, and EW hardware, and probably intelligence as well.
And while the Russians may have to "trust" the US that F-16s in Ukraine are not carrying nukes, they also know the US would be insane to try a nuclear attack on Russia with a handful of F-16s, even under cover of the Ukraine war. This scenario reminds me of all the scenarios people talked about before the war, where every NATO exercise with a hundred planes or so was thought to be a "cover" for a "surprise attack on Russia." All of that was utter nonsense and this is, too. It simply can't be done without the sort of movement that would be telegraphed to the Russian (and Chinese) signals intelligence and ISR. You can't hide that units charged with nuclear materials handling are doing more today than they did yesterday. The US knows what Russia does in that regard and vice versa. WWIII will never be a "surprise" - it will be deliberate.
If the Ukrainians with US help launch missiles that do any significant damage inside Russia, the Russians will just increase use of their hypersonics and take out the bases involved in Poland and Romania after making sure Ukraine doesn't have any left. NATO won't do anything, because they can't.
The US may be planning a first strike on Russia for the future, but they aren't there, yet. As Ritter pointed out yesterday, most of the US nuclear assets are old, falling apart, and lately Minuteman missiles tests have failed at increasing rates, which is why - mostly for the economic benefits to the MIC - they want to spend a trillion dollars refurbishing all of it.
Personally I assume there will be WWIII, but I suspect it will start over Taiwan rather than Ukraine, mostly because Ukraine won't exist by this time next year. It will end with China and Russia destroying the US and Europe.
I saw a quote by one of my favorite actresses, Winona Ryder, yesterday to the effect that "I give it four or fives years before the world just fucking explodes."
Thanks for that Richard. Agree with much of what you say but not sure about the world exploding. If she means blowing up, I don't think so but if she is talking about the collapse of Western societies then I agree. I can already see signs of that in the UK.
I was recently intrigued by the episode of Angus Robertson and Israel. He of course is half German. I wondered how many Scots had a link to Germany due to the war. Around about me in rural Perthshire there was a POW camp during the war. There are lots of Scots locally who actually had a grandfather that was in the Wehrmacht or a grandfather who brought s German bride home. My mate's mother in law and her sister actually moved to Scotland with their mother after their widowed mother married a Scottish soldier. Their biological father was killed fighting for the wehrmacht. Anyway, i digress, i decided to check the German war dead grave site, Volksbund, to see if any Scots born had actually died fighting for the wehrmacht. I was surprised at the numbers. A fellow Dundonian died fighting on the Eastern Front in Pskov oblast: a guy from Arbroath died in Letland. Lots of Glaswegian and Edinburgh born also died mostly in Russia. I was able to cross refer against the data from Scotlands People to see if they were really born here. The most intriguing question is how did Ewing William Shaw from Glasgow die fighting for the wehrmacht in 1941?. Before you ask- German war dead includes three Campbells. All the best.
Interesting stuff - many of us have a connection with the wars of the 1930s/40s. My great uncle was part of the International Brigade that fought the fascists in Spain in the thirties. I met him once and have read much about him. But when I met him, I had no idea of his background: he was simply Uncle Jack - or 'Jack Russia' as he was known locally - he was a communist. My Mum was part of the Land Army that worked with Italian prisoners on Welsh farms in the 1940s - these were the best days of her life. Thanks for that.
Thanks again for your hard work. Looķs like Pokrovsk should fall pretty soon and the open Steppe beckons. The Soviets briefly captured the town from the Germans in February 1943 before taking it fully later that year. The reason I mention is that some interesting historical stories etc get missed by the constant renaming of towns in Ukraine. Pokrovsk was known as Grishno in WW2. Its worth reading what the Russians did when they captured it in 1943. The episode is remembered as the Massacre of Grishno. I think Russians will be more accommodating this time.
I'm maybe being too superstitious but when both poster boys: Juice and Moonface have been killed... looks like the gods of war favour the Russians. If Moonface was killed by a Patriot missile it begs the question of how the Russian pilot managed to dodge three Patriot missiles duringa redent encounter: Better plane?Better pilot? Better interconnectivity with Air control?
You raise some interesting points as always. Your reference to changing names resonates because that is one of the difficulties in reporting on the SMO. The names of some 'towns'. 'cities' or 'villages' have Russian and Ukrainian versions, different spellings and similarities that make it important to double check sometimes to avoid an embarrassing mistake! The Patriot v F-16 story is a major image victories for Russia since it is being reported in the legacy media - which I don't read. Cheers.
The advance towards Pokrovsk seems to be going well for the the RF, perhaps too well as you yourself mention build-ups of UA forces around the vicinity and others on MOA talk about a potential counter strike being possible for the UA because of the fight the UA is putting up around Toretsk.
In my opinion I don't think anything could challenge that Tsentr group of Russian forces that is rumoured to be around 150,00 of the most experienced troops in the whole SMO.
I mentioned in one of my other posts that there could be a slow phased withdrawal to a perhaps agreed demarcation line for the new Donetsk region. So maybe the RF is pre-empting this.
Kursk looks like a bit of a mess but what can you do when 30,000+ fanatics (directly aided by NATO ISR) are intent on driving around trying to gain a breakout on your territory.
On the Gaza conflict I saw a report on BBC that highlighted the levelling of areas and building of corridors by the zionists in the Northern Gaza region.
With the purpose of control, insertion, and stealing peoples land . The World just watches the genocide unfold..
Well onto the next week and lets see what happens.
Judging by the stuff I have been reading today from Ukrainian sources, it looks as if Pokrovsk and other places in the Donbass are close to collapse. But just how close depends on lots of factors including the extent to which Syrsky is willing or able to bring in reinforcements and supplies. Thanks.
On the latest news section there is a piece of a supposed RF mech assault probe going wrong by the Kurikhava reservoir. Still that area is South East of Memryk so could be 1 or 2 days out of date..
They also report that the direct RF UA phone line has been terminated.
I wonder which sort of banderist nutcase will replace the fired air defence chief Oleshchuk?
And did he refuse missions or was he a scapegoat for the lost F16.
Superb summary. Everything excellent and so much work for you to bring together. Well done, much appreciated. I haven't checked weekly but I like the new style as it has unfolded. TY
Thanks for the fine update Rob. There is a lot of shit happening at the moment and it's hard to keep track of everything. We are living through the weirdest time in my lifetime.
If you had told me this would be the circumstance 25 years ago I would have laughed at the preposterousness of it . It's not funny now.
The West's recent attacks on free speech: Richard Medhurst and Pavlov Durov, and the FBI's attempted intimidation of Scott Ritter, are ominous. It suggests that the West is clearing the decks for a big MSM propaganda effort on the coming WW3. Why now? Because all of the major oil producing nations are embracing BRICS+, and are some of 159 nations heading to the BRICS+ conference in Kazan in October. This is terrifying western nations, all of whom are in economic decline, partly due to the stupidity of taking on Russia, and threatening China and Iran.
It is not for nothing that Russia sent naval vessels to Cuba, months ago. I think that Doctorow is right. Though a Russian defence person spoke of obliterating the UK, that would still leave the head of the serpent in tact. Russia is closely watching every US move, and the minute it threatens Russia Washington will be toast. There is so much hubris in the Washington Consensus that the big worry is that they will ignore all the red flags that Russia is flying.
And what of the middle east? Why hasn't Iran struck back? Russia has been helping Iran get all its ducks in a row with S-400s, and I'm told S-500s, too. They appear to be playing the attrition game, because it will be much less costly to their civilians and infrastructure, They know that Israel grows weaker economically, and militarily, by the day, while their defences grow much stronger.
We live in interesting, but very dangerous, times.
I think you are right, most of the major oil producing nations are heading into BRICS+ and that scares the hell out of the US. Dangerous times, yes, but I'm glad to be living while this is happening.
I listened to Doctorow's concepts in a couple of places. As Scott Ritter and Larry Johnson pointed out, he's not a military expert and his 100-plane nuclear attack from the Med is fantasy - the planes would need refueling and that's hardly a "surprise attack. Of course, as Doctorow points out, what matters is what the Russians believe. But the Russian General Staff knows a fantasy when they see one, too.
Ritter has been hammering away at the likelihood that Russia will hit the US with nukes if US missiles are used by Ukraine inside Russia. I doubt that. Russia can do all sort of damage to the US outside the continental US and using hypersonics with conventional warheads to do so. What matters is what the US does then, not what Russia does.
For now it seems clear that Russia is busy arming anti-US parties such as North Korea and Ansarallah as well as Iran with some of their "overflow" advanced aircraft, AD, and EW hardware, and probably intelligence as well.
And while the Russians may have to "trust" the US that F-16s in Ukraine are not carrying nukes, they also know the US would be insane to try a nuclear attack on Russia with a handful of F-16s, even under cover of the Ukraine war. This scenario reminds me of all the scenarios people talked about before the war, where every NATO exercise with a hundred planes or so was thought to be a "cover" for a "surprise attack on Russia." All of that was utter nonsense and this is, too. It simply can't be done without the sort of movement that would be telegraphed to the Russian (and Chinese) signals intelligence and ISR. You can't hide that units charged with nuclear materials handling are doing more today than they did yesterday. The US knows what Russia does in that regard and vice versa. WWIII will never be a "surprise" - it will be deliberate.
If the Ukrainians with US help launch missiles that do any significant damage inside Russia, the Russians will just increase use of their hypersonics and take out the bases involved in Poland and Romania after making sure Ukraine doesn't have any left. NATO won't do anything, because they can't.
The US may be planning a first strike on Russia for the future, but they aren't there, yet. As Ritter pointed out yesterday, most of the US nuclear assets are old, falling apart, and lately Minuteman missiles tests have failed at increasing rates, which is why - mostly for the economic benefits to the MIC - they want to spend a trillion dollars refurbishing all of it.
Personally I assume there will be WWIII, but I suspect it will start over Taiwan rather than Ukraine, mostly because Ukraine won't exist by this time next year. It will end with China and Russia destroying the US and Europe.
I saw a quote by one of my favorite actresses, Winona Ryder, yesterday to the effect that "I give it four or fives years before the world just fucking explodes."
That sounds about right.
Thanks for that Richard. Agree with much of what you say but not sure about the world exploding. If she means blowing up, I don't think so but if she is talking about the collapse of Western societies then I agree. I can already see signs of that in the UK.
I was recently intrigued by the episode of Angus Robertson and Israel. He of course is half German. I wondered how many Scots had a link to Germany due to the war. Around about me in rural Perthshire there was a POW camp during the war. There are lots of Scots locally who actually had a grandfather that was in the Wehrmacht or a grandfather who brought s German bride home. My mate's mother in law and her sister actually moved to Scotland with their mother after their widowed mother married a Scottish soldier. Their biological father was killed fighting for the wehrmacht. Anyway, i digress, i decided to check the German war dead grave site, Volksbund, to see if any Scots born had actually died fighting for the wehrmacht. I was surprised at the numbers. A fellow Dundonian died fighting on the Eastern Front in Pskov oblast: a guy from Arbroath died in Letland. Lots of Glaswegian and Edinburgh born also died mostly in Russia. I was able to cross refer against the data from Scotlands People to see if they were really born here. The most intriguing question is how did Ewing William Shaw from Glasgow die fighting for the wehrmacht in 1941?. Before you ask- German war dead includes three Campbells. All the best.
Interesting stuff - many of us have a connection with the wars of the 1930s/40s. My great uncle was part of the International Brigade that fought the fascists in Spain in the thirties. I met him once and have read much about him. But when I met him, I had no idea of his background: he was simply Uncle Jack - or 'Jack Russia' as he was known locally - he was a communist. My Mum was part of the Land Army that worked with Italian prisoners on Welsh farms in the 1940s - these were the best days of her life. Thanks for that.
Thanks again for your hard work. Looķs like Pokrovsk should fall pretty soon and the open Steppe beckons. The Soviets briefly captured the town from the Germans in February 1943 before taking it fully later that year. The reason I mention is that some interesting historical stories etc get missed by the constant renaming of towns in Ukraine. Pokrovsk was known as Grishno in WW2. Its worth reading what the Russians did when they captured it in 1943. The episode is remembered as the Massacre of Grishno. I think Russians will be more accommodating this time.
I'm maybe being too superstitious but when both poster boys: Juice and Moonface have been killed... looks like the gods of war favour the Russians. If Moonface was killed by a Patriot missile it begs the question of how the Russian pilot managed to dodge three Patriot missiles duringa redent encounter: Better plane?Better pilot? Better interconnectivity with Air control?
You raise some interesting points as always. Your reference to changing names resonates because that is one of the difficulties in reporting on the SMO. The names of some 'towns'. 'cities' or 'villages' have Russian and Ukrainian versions, different spellings and similarities that make it important to double check sometimes to avoid an embarrassing mistake! The Patriot v F-16 story is a major image victories for Russia since it is being reported in the legacy media - which I don't read. Cheers.
Great read and thanks Rob.
The advance towards Pokrovsk seems to be going well for the the RF, perhaps too well as you yourself mention build-ups of UA forces around the vicinity and others on MOA talk about a potential counter strike being possible for the UA because of the fight the UA is putting up around Toretsk.
In my opinion I don't think anything could challenge that Tsentr group of Russian forces that is rumoured to be around 150,00 of the most experienced troops in the whole SMO.
I mentioned in one of my other posts that there could be a slow phased withdrawal to a perhaps agreed demarcation line for the new Donetsk region. So maybe the RF is pre-empting this.
Kursk looks like a bit of a mess but what can you do when 30,000+ fanatics (directly aided by NATO ISR) are intent on driving around trying to gain a breakout on your territory.
On the Gaza conflict I saw a report on BBC that highlighted the levelling of areas and building of corridors by the zionists in the Northern Gaza region.
With the purpose of control, insertion, and stealing peoples land . The World just watches the genocide unfold..
Well onto the next week and lets see what happens.
Judging by the stuff I have been reading today from Ukrainian sources, it looks as if Pokrovsk and other places in the Donbass are close to collapse. But just how close depends on lots of factors including the extent to which Syrsky is willing or able to bring in reinforcements and supplies. Thanks.
Lets hope Pokrovsk will fall soon but it does look more fighting and not as much retreating (as before) going on now.
I noticed this on the 'very' pro Ukraine website https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/5/1/465720/
On the latest news section there is a piece of a supposed RF mech assault probe going wrong by the Kurikhava reservoir. Still that area is South East of Memryk so could be 1 or 2 days out of date..
They also report that the direct RF UA phone line has been terminated.
I wonder which sort of banderist nutcase will replace the fired air defence chief Oleshchuk?
And did he refuse missions or was he a scapegoat for the lost F16.
Cheers - I'll have a look at the Ukraine website.
Superb summary. Everything excellent and so much work for you to bring together. Well done, much appreciated. I haven't checked weekly but I like the new style as it has unfolded. TY
Thanks for the fine update Rob. There is a lot of shit happening at the moment and it's hard to keep track of everything. We are living through the weirdest time in my lifetime.
If you had told me this would be the circumstance 25 years ago I would have laughed at the preposterousness of it . It's not funny now.