Once again, this week, the ‘invasion of Kursk’ continues to preoccupy the thoughts of many commentators and observers. And some Russians will know that the 23rd August marked the 81st anniversary of the end of Operation Citadel as the Germans abandoned their attempt to capture Kursk.
The unfathomable ‘Kursk incursion’ - Ukrainian Style - has stalled quite quickly, as casualties and losses in materiel have reached staggering levels among the Ukrainians. Most commentators I consult are saying that the offensive was a mistake and that the Ukrainians are in deep trouble - to say the least and to put it politely. Even some Western sources are saying this. Z and some others claim that there is more to come from the Kursk offensive which, they say, will soon threaten in other ways and in other areas. This smacks of psyops to me. But then, the Kursk incursion took me completely by surprise, so maybe Z and co will give us some high profile event to marvel at. Anyway, the Kursk incursion is tailor made for Russia’s attritional strategy as the Ukrainians will need to keep feeding the ‘bulge’ with men and materiel.
But the Kursk offensive is causing suffering in other Directions: Pokrovsk is not many weeks away from collapse and Toretsk is being assailed. The rate of Russian advances has noticeably increased this week along with Ukrainian losses.
In the Middle East, nothing much appears to have changed which is not meant to belittle the suffering in Gaza and the resistance of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. No one appears to be convinced that the talks of a ceasefire are serious as far as the Israelis are concerned.
The arrest of Telegram creator Pavel Durov in Paris, probably on Biden’s (or his minders’) instructions, has generated huge discussions, especially among those who champion free speech. Some say the charges against him are absurd.
Meanwhile in the US, Donald J has been hit with another nail in his cross: he is being accused once again and another court case beckons. Donald is on the campaign trail and Kamala seems invisible. Unfortunately, the Donald has come to believe, following the failed attempt to kill him, that God wants him to save America and the world. Tony Bliar had similar views which resulted in the disaster that was Iraq. Let’s hope Trump’s divine intervention has more favourable consequences.
There has been much discussion and fear of escalation - understandably - and I have not been unaffected by the gloomy prospects under consideration - as I will discuss below.
Britain continues to be bonkers but I’ll spare you the gory details this week.
August 23rd 1943 - Kursk Battle Ends
According to the Two Majors:
The Battle of Kursk, one of the greatest military engagements in human history, ended on August 23, 1943 – 81 years ago. In total, the battle involved over 4 million people, over 69,000 guns and mortars, more than 13,000 tanks and self-propelled guns, and nearly 12,000 aircraft.
The battle had lasted 50 days. You can read more here.
Ukraine Independence Day - 24th August
Ukraine achieved independence in 1991 following the collapse of the Soviet Union and no doubt some Ukrainians are celebrating. However, many others have come to appreciate they have been used by the West, which could force them into poverty for the next 35 years.
Where Have All The People Gone?
According to this report only 18-19 million people are left in Ukraine which had a population of 38 millions in 2022.
Squeaky Bum Time
This is a phrase used by former Manchester United manager, Alex Ferguson, to describe the nervous end to a football season but I am using it in connection with the US/NATO’s decision to invade Kursk. Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Ryabkov has said that the consequences of the US’s decision to invade will be more severe than they have been hitherto and Sergei Lavrov has called any attacks by Stormshadow missiles deep into Russia as ‘playing with fire’. He also said that Russia’s doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons ‘is currently being clarified’.
There has been lots of coverage of Zelensky’s repeated requests to be allowed to use these missiles. Then we heard that Biden is considering these requests and may allow Ukraine to hit certain targets inside Russia. On the 27th August, the Pentagon confirmed that US policy remains the same: Ukraine cannot employ its weapons to strike deep into Russia. I think the mixed messages here are deliberate. To me, this appears to be part of a show designed to put the Russians off balance and tempt them into actions that would give NATO an excuse to get involved more deeply and would displease Russia’s supporters. The use of battlefield nukes would do that. An emergency meeting of NATO was granted at Z’s request for the 28th August - all part of the show.
But missiles flying against targets deep into Russia at the behest of the West is likely to fray the nerves of any Russian general, politician or civilian. It must be appreciated that F-16s - currently available to the Ukrainians - are capable of carrying a nuclear payload. So, the Russians have to ‘trust’ that the US will not launch a nuclear attack. I know this is unlikely but it will generate some nervousness in Russian circles. The Russian people will demand some sort of retaliation for Kursk and may not be satisfied with drone/missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure (though I don’t think that the air attack of the 26th August was a retaliation). Some have said that the Russians are in danger of not being taken seriously when they say things such as ‘playing with fire’ and nuclear doctrine ‘being clarified’ but don’t do anything. I have no idea how the Russians can retaliate other than by taking Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Kursk etc. while making sure that the Ukrainians are cold and dirty this winter. They could also supply weapons to Iran and the Houthis but in my humble view, anything else would be madness. An attack by Stormshadows into Russia will need to be tolerated in spite of the risks.
However, in this interview with Nima, Dr. Gilbert Doctorow offers a more pessimistic view of the current situation in Kursk. He believes that Ukraine’s offensive is much more of a threat than other commentators believe and was painstakingly planned and organised exclusively by NATO. It could also involve long range missiles being launched deep into Russia which will attack sites where military equipment/personnel are located as well as civilians. The game I referred to above could lead to this scenario and could involve Russian retaliatory attacks against Washington - yes - against Washington, according to Doctorow. Lavrov has said that the US can’t assume that because it is located on the other side of the Atlantic it will not suffer in the event of war - which fits with Doctorow’s view.
Doctorow also points out that the deployment of a US aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean, ostensibly for the purpose of supporting Israel in a war against Lebanon, Iran and the Houthis, could be used to make a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Russia with 100 planes. But Doctorow also suggests that the Russians will know this because they have the aircraft carrier on their radar. Moreover, they could be contemplating a pre-emptive nuclear strike of their own on the US and the West.
I should say that I haven’t come across any other commentators who share Doctorow’s rather gloomy prognosis. I am not convinced that the Mediterranean would be the best launching pad for a nuclear attack on Russia.
If this wasn’t bad enough, the Iranians are also causing some nervousness as we await their belated attack on Israel. And Washington is now planning for a joint nuclear strike against Russia, China and North Korea - according to Pravda. Meanwhile, back in Kursk, the IAEA inspector has warned that the Kursk NPP is at great risk of a nuclear accident - according to RT. Of course, it will not be at risk if the Ukrainians don’t target it but the inspector did not even concede that recent drone attacks on the plant have emanated from Ukraine.
Yes - it’s squeaky bum time!
The People Fight Back
We Want Our Church!
In Pochaev, Western Ukraine, Thousands of women marched in protest at Zelensky’s banning of the Orthodox Church. You can see some footage here. These people had marched 120 miles over four days towards the Pochaevskaya Lavra Monastery in Ternopol region (West of Kiev). You can read more at RT.
Biomaterial War Games
According to a report from IntelRepublic:
Igor Kirillov, Head of Protection of Russian Forces from Biological Weapons, alleges the U.S is actively using Moldova and Romania to transport biomaterials from Ukraine - publishing names of companies & individuals involved. There have been over 2,000 instances of biomaterial shipments to the U.S via Moldova between August 2022 and May 2024, involving U.S subsidiaries and firms controlled by Moldovan President Sandu. Ukrainian soldiers are also trained to use chemical ammunition, where Moldova and Romania are involved in developing pathogens targeting specific ethnic groups.
Those who are interested can read more here.
The Prophet Zelensky
Ukrainians always return debts. And he who wishes our land disaster will get it at home. With interest. Whoever wants to sow evil on our land will reap its fruits on his territory. This is not prophecy, not gloating, not blind revenge, it is a pattern. Justice. A boomerang for evil. And to the one who brought evil to our land, everything returned back to his home.
Zelensky claims to have a new ‘Victory Plan’ that he will present to whoever wins the election in the United States in return for additional funding from the West. But I am not convinced that the once great Z, wanting to be great again, has any say at all in any ‘plan’. But maybe he has finally gone rogue and cut the strings with which the US makes him dance. I honestly have no idea.
The whole Kursk affair was so out of the blue and so irrational from many points of view that its is difficult to explain. A coke filled Zelensky, wanting to be great again, could have initiated it - but surely He would not act without US permission. If the US/NATO military thought this was a good idea then everything Martyanov, Ritter, Johnson et al have said about their incompetence is true.
In response to Zelensky’s ‘plan’, Sergei Lavrov has said that he is open to negotiations but not with Zelensky - according to Pravda.
The Real Zelensky
Peace Talks Postponed
Zelensky’s plans to organise another peace conference in Switzerland with Russia also sat at the table have been postponed until 2025 according to a Ukrainian source. Apparently, countries from the Global South have refused to participate because of the Kursk ‘invasion’.
Podolyak
Mykhailo Podolyak, Zelensky spokesman extraordinaire has delivered the most incomprehensible interview I have ever heard from someone who claims to be sane. According to this deranged verbiage, the Russians want to lose the war in order to get rid of Putin. Russians suffer from a ‘collective primitivism’, he said, that persuades them to elect primitive rulers such as Putin. He also said that Putin can survive only as long as the war continues and that when the war ends the people will come after him. He is also convinced that if Putin stays in power, Russia will cease to exist. Am I alone in thinking that he is actually describing Zelensky and Ukraine rather than Putin and Russia?? If you have a strong constitution, you can hear all his ‘projections’ here.
Kiev Tries to Boss Belarus
The Ukrainians are annoyed that Belarus has stationed troops close to its border with Ukraine and have demanded that it redeploy its troops at a safe distance greater than the firing range of it weapons. But this would conflict with the notion of border protection. The Ukrainians are particularly concerned, or so they say, that the Chernobyl NPP could be at risk. Now that’s a bit rich coming from a country that has attacked NPPs many times. The Belarussians will ignore the request, of course.
Dmitruk Flees
Rada deputy, Artem Dmitruk, has fled to Moldova and then on to Italy with his family. The rats are leaving.
Cauld Winter Beckons in Ukraine
A Ukrainian source, not supportive of the Zelensky regime, is reporting that the electricity grid in Ukraine is now operating at 50% capacity and that during the winter this will translate into 12 hour outage periods without electricity and water. During these periods, Ukrainians will not be able to communicate with each other or with the outside world, Business will not be able to function and refrigerated food will spoil or infect those who try to use it. The air defence systems promised by the July NATO summit have been delayed indefinitely which means that Ukrainians will not be able to prevent further damage to the grid. Many fear that the economy will finally collapse in consequence. One Ukrainian said:
We advise everyone to prepare for the worst-case scenario. Your life is in your hands. Remember this. For the Zelensky government, you are just a tool to continue the game.
Starlink Failure Spoiled Kursk Offensive
Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Vadim Sukharevsky, has blamed Elon Musk for the failure of the Kursk operation. Apparently, Starlink stopped working 24 hours after the ‘invasion’ started resulting in a lack of communication and interaction between the attacking units. The fact that Starlink failed is clear but it is not certain that Musk is responsible - rather than the Russians who have blocked Starlink before now. However, Musk did block Starlink when the Ukrainians attacked Crimea - according to Slavyangrad.
Modi Visits Z
The Indian PM visited Zelensky in Kiev and urged him to negotiate. He reminded Z that he had told Putin more than two years ago that the situation could not be solved by war. Modi said that his country is not neutral but stands for peace. You can read more here or at RT.
Abrams Trashed
According to those at Military Watch Magazine, who know about such things, 20 out of the 31 Abrams M1A1 MBTs have been destroyed in the past six months.
Maneuver Warfare?
Within the expert commentator ‘community’ some are more open than others to the possibility of a mobile form of warfare. Colonel McGregor is among those who believe that a ‘big arrow’ offensive is a possibility at least. I think it is more likely that the strategy of attrition will be pursued until the Ukrainian army collapses. But the Russians will also take advantage of situations as they develop: they are not inflexible, as some believe. If a ‘big arrow’ offensive can be conducted in a manner that does not risk significant losses in men and materiel, I don’t think the Russians would ‘turn their noses up at it’.1
But as Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge points out, the collapse of Pokrovsk (which could be fairly close) would provide the Russian forces with an opportunity to engage in mobile warfare because the area to the west (towards the Dnieper) has few villages and much open grassland. This is ideal for mobile warfare at the moment (before the autumn rains come). But before that happens, Durden suggests that the Ukrainians could turn this into another Bakhmut meatgrinder. I think that would be unlikely given Ukraine’s commitment to Kursk and another possible offensive in Zaporozhye. Insane as it may sound, reports are revealing what appears to be a huge build up of Ukrainian forces in the Orekhov area - pointed in the direction of Rabotino and Tokmak. This is where the Ukrainian summer offensive of 2023 floundered so tragically - this is where the folly that created ‘Bradley Square’ happened. Given the declining strength of Ukraine’s forces, their commitment to Kursk and the ascendency of the Russians, I would be very surprised if the Ukrainians embark on such a venture.
Ukrainian Terror Attacks (i.e. those that target civilians)
23rd/24th August Overnight
Overnight, five ‘aircraft type’ drones were shot down over Voronezh, one over Belgorod and one over Bryansk. Belgorod also suffered shelling which claimed five civilian casualties while the DPR also sustained five casualties - according to the Two Majors.
24th/25th August
Five people were killed by shelling overnight in the village of Rakitnoye in Belgorod. Twelve people were injured, four of whom are in a serious condition. Elsewhere in Belgorod, cars and gas pipelines were damaged.
25th/26th August
Overnight the Ukrainians attacked high rise buildings in Saratov, according to the Chronicle. In Belgorod, two civilians were injured when their car was attacked by two drones while in the DPR, a man was injured by a ‘drone drop'. 20 Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight over Saratov, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, Tula, Oryol & Ryazan - according to the Russian MoD.
26th/27th August
Seven civilians were injured by Ukrainian strikes in Belgorod while two more were injured in Gorlovka (DPR). The Ukrainians launched a raid into Belgorod overnight with 60 men and 8 armoured vehicles. The Border Guards are dealing with the situation.
27th/28th August
Overnight, an ‘aircraft-type’ drone was shot down over Voronezh region but the fragments which fell to earth caused a fire close to some explosive objects forcing the evacuation of two settlements. Four drones were shot down over Rostov region and a fire was reported at the oil depot in Kamensky district. The village of Kirkovichi in Bryansk was also attacked with kamikaze drones which caused fires. Three rescue workers were injured while attending the blaze. In Belgorod, near the village of Zhuravlevka, the Ukrainians tried to break through with 100 men but were repelled. Three people were injured by shelling in Gorlovka (DPR) overnight. An attack on a car with cluster munitions in Zaporozhye killed a child and injured four more belonging to the same family, according to Tass. According to this report the Ukrainians attacked the Kursk NPP with HIMARS but caused no damage.
28th/29th August
Three drones were shot down over Bryansk at night while in Belgorod a civilian was injured by shelling. One person was killed and another two injured overnight in Shebekino (Belgorod). In Gorlovka (DPR) a man was injured by a drone drop.
29th/30th August
In Belgorod region overnight a farmer was injured on a combine harvester while attempting to gather the crop. In Shebekino, one man was killed and another two injured by shelling while in the DPR at least five people were injured by shelling.
The Sea War
28th/29th August Overnight
At 3.30 am on the 29th Russian air defences shot down two Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea close to Sevastopol.
The Air War (Map)
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
23rd/24th August Overnight
Ukrainian sources claim hits by Kh-22 missiles in Odessa. It is reported that the Russians also attacked Cherkassy, Mirgorod and Sumy.
24th/25th August
Overnight, Geraniums attacked targets in Nikolaev, Kherson while ballistic missiles attacked Kharvov, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Air borne missiles attacked Kiev, Chernigov and Nikolaev. Sumy region also came under intensive attack.
25th/26th August Overnight
Overnight, the Russians launched the largest drone/missile attack in some time. According to the Military Chronicle:
For the first time in a long time, almost a month, in the morning there were 11 Tu-95s and two MiG-31s in the air. Cruise missiles are also flying at Ukraine from the sea. Arrivals were registered: Kyiv - two explosions at the airport, Odessa - this has never happened before, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv, Kremenchuk, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava region. In total, at least 33 missiles and 100 Geraniums.
Explosions were heard in Mirgorod; Kharkov; Krivoy Rog; Kremenchuk; Vinnytsia; Kropyvnytskyi; Khmelnytskyi; Zaporozhye; Dnipropetrovsk and Brovary. Industrial units in Khmelnytskyi and Poltava were hit.
Local Ukrainian channels in Kiev are reporting attacks by ballistic missiles. The gas storage facility in Stryi (Lvov) was also attacked and damaged. Ivano-Frankovsk and Rovno were also attacked. The Ukrainians have imposed power outages in many places, including Lvov and Zaporozhye, in order to protect the grid. Explosions were also heard at Zhulyany airport in Kiev.
Slavyangrad reports that the first wave of attacks targeted electricity infrastructure. A Ukrainian channel reported that an electricity substation was damaged in Odessa, the thermal power plant and sub-stations were hit in Kiev along with substations in Nikolaev. Slavyangrad also reported that a 750KV substation was destroyed in Vinnitsa leaving the city with virtually no electricity or water. Vinnitsa is home to 400,000 people. 750KV substations were also destroyed in Nalivayki (Lvov region). 330KV substations were damaged or destroyed in Odessa, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr and Volyn. Some believe that Russia could target more 750KV substations thereby paralysing much of Ukraine. Finally, the Kiev Hydroelectric Power Station was put of action by missiles.
Water supplies were cut off in some regions, including Kiev and Zhitomir and railways have been deprived of power. The success of these attacks, according to some Ukrainians, is due in part to the transfer of air defence systems to Kursk.
The Russians also attacked many military targets. South Front provides a report here.
A later report claimed that 127 rockets and cruise missiles were employed alongside 109 Geran drones. A Ukrainian source reported that most of these projectiles reached their targets.
Winter could indeed be bleak and I wonder how many will leave in anticipation of this.
26th/27th August Overnight
Overnight, Iskander missiles demolished the Aurora Hotel in Krivoy Rog, where, it is thought foreign mercenaries were staying. According to Geroman, explosions were also heard in Kyiv city/region and in Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Dnepropetrovsk, Rivne and Zhitomir regions. During the raid, MiG-31s launched Kinzhal missiles and TU-95s played their part. Zaporozhye city and region were attacked by 7 UAVs.
At 11 pm on the 26th, air raid alerts were sounded in at least 10 regions and attacks were made in Nikolaev, Cherkasy and Sumy regions. In the Black Sea, two self elevating drilling rigs close to Zmeiny Island (Snake Island), which the Ukrainians were using for military purposes, were hit by Kinzhals and set of fire. Military airfields at Dubno (Rivne region), Ozernoye (Zhitomir) and Starokonstantinov (Khmelnytskyi) were also attacked. F-16s may have been based at the latter.
Internet connectivity has also declined in consequence of the attacks, according to Slavyangrad.
F-16s
A Ukrainian source claimed that an F-16 was destroyed at Starokostiantyniv, airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. The plane had been airborne, fighting off missiles or drones but on returning to the airfield was greeted with ‘daggers’ (Kinzhals). ‘The information is being verified’, they say. Later it was reported by a Ukrainian source that Ukrainian Colonel Alexei Mas (an F-16 pilot) was killed by a missile strike at an airfield on the 26th August. The WSJ reported that the plane crashed due to pilot error.
However, Tass has reported a statement from Rada ‘lawmaker’ Maryana Bezulglaya, contradicting the official view, claiming that the plane was shot down by Ukraine’s own Patriot defence system. If true, that would be a huge embarrassment for the Ukrainians who destroyed their own wunderwaffe. I think some of the legacy media is running with the story.
28th/29th August
According to the Two Majors:
At night, rocket weapons and more than 40 Gerani UAVs were used on the enemy's rear areas. Explosions were heard in Kharkov, KrivoyRog, Pavlograd, Kropivnitsky district of Kirovograd region, Kremenchuk, Borispol and Obukhov districts of Kiev region, Kiev, Brovary, Vyshgorod and Cherkassy.
29th/30th August
Ukrainian military targets in Sumy were hit overnight by Russian missiles causing fires. Targets in Krivoy Rog, Kiev, Poltava and Vinnytsia were also hit.
Ukrainian Missile/Drone Attacks
24th August
A warehouse containing ammunition stocks was hit and set alight in Voronezh.
25th/26th August
Overnight, the Ukrainians attacked the airfield at Engels.
27th/28th August Overnight
Four drones attacked an oil depot near Kotelnich, Kirov region setting it on fire, as you can see here.
The Ground War
Russian MoD Weekly Reports (excluding Kursk)
w/e August 9th 13,925 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 748
w/e 16th August 14,560 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 809 (record high)
w/e 23rd August 16,155 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 739
w/e 30th August 16, 910 Casualties killed and wounded (record high): equipment losses 737.
Kursk
Since the start of the Kursk incursion the Ukrainians have lost:
…more than 7,800 troops, 75 tanks, 36 infantry fighting vehicles, 64 armoured personnel carriers, 507 armoured fighting vehicles, 235 motor vehicles, 53 artillery guns, 15 multiple-launch rocket system launchers, including four of HIMARS system and one of MLRS system, five SAM launchers, 11 electronic warfare stations, one counter-battery radar, one air defence radar, five engineering vehicles, including two counterobstacle vehicles and one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle.
Typically, the Ukrainians are losing around 400 men and 22 units of hardware per day in Kursk. This would make the overall total casualties 19,710 for this week and equipment totals would have been close to 900.
The Fronts
I have not attempted to cover all Directions this week but have focused on the most important and impactful of these.
Front Line Cats
Kursk/Sumy
A Ukrainian source reported that Syrsky is transferring troops to Kursk from Odessa, Zaporozhye and Volyn which will increase the strength of his forces to 40,000 men. However, according this report, Syrsky is claiming that the Russians have transferred 30,000 troops from the south/east of Ukraine to Kursk but another report claims that Syrsky has admitted that Russia has transferred very few troops from the east/south. I cannot verify any of these claims btw.
Another Ukrainian source claims that Kursk was Z’s biggest ‘miscalculation’ - which is inaccurate in the sense that Zelensky has probably not engaged in any calculating. It was a mistake, certainly, but it wasn’t Zelensky’s mistake imv. Some believe in an old phrase voiced by veterans who have said that ‘It all started with Donbass and it will end with Donbass’. This is where the rebellion started, in other words. Kursk is therefore a pointless diversion. It seems that Z and Syrsky could be sending troops to the Donbass as I write on August 27th - according to this Ukrainian source.
According to another Ukrainian source, the Russians have been attacking rail and road bridges in the Sumy region, thereby hampering logistics. Depriving the railways of electricity is doing the same thing.
Previous reports that the Kursk incursion stopped talks aimed at stopping attacks by both sides on each other’s energy infrastructure have been dismissed by Russian diplomat, Dmitry Polyanskiy, speaking on Glenn Diesen’s chat show. Polyanskiy also made it clear that negotiations after Kursk are out of the question for the Russian administration and the people.
Polyanskiy, points out that the Ukrainians are stranded in the densely forested southern part of Kursk, which contains very few villages and nothing of military value. He also said that there is no hurry to evict these ‘trespassers’ and that the Russians will not sacrifice men in order to do this quickly. As long as their soldiers are in Kursk and losing men and equipment at a staggering rate, they will need to be reinforced and resupplied - which will suit Russia’s strategy of attrition.
Polyanskiy also made reference to the terrorist nature of the attacks, where foreign mercenaries have been engaged in rape, murder and looting and the fact that many soldiers were wearing Nazi insignia in front of the Western press. He made it clear that Russia wants a negotiated settlement (though not with Z) that included the establishment of a new security framework for Europe.
On August 30th, the Military Chronicle gave this report:
Kursk region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have an operational impasse. Korenevo does not succumb to it even with the reserves involved in the fighting, now there is a regrouping. The main points of application of the enemy's efforts are in Komarivka, which is held by our troops with suitable reinforcements from Glushkove and Olhivka east of Korenevo.
Clashes also continue at Malaya Lokny, Cherkassky, Porechny and Martynovka.
If you would like some detailed analysis of the Ukraine situation in a historical context with reference to the Rand Corporation’s 2019 proposals to ‘extend Russia’ have a look at this excellent video from Brian Berletic.
Kharkov
This week, there has been very little movement in this Direction as far as I am aware.
Kupyansk
The Russians have consolidated their position on this front but the Ukrainians have also made some small gains.
Toretsk
This week, there has much activity in this Direction and by the 29th August, the settlement of Druzhba had been completely liberated, according to this report.
Pokrovsk
On the 24th August, Ukrainian reports claim that their troops have retreated ten kilometres in a week and do not have the strength to attack but can only defend. The Kursk incursion has not affected Russian strength or aggression in this Direction. On the same day, the Russians advanced towards Selidovo and cut the M-30 highway which will cause the Ukrainians logistical problems in this Direction. A Ukrainian source is reporting that Zelensky did not provide sufficient funding to fortify the flanks at Pokrovsk so the Russians could out flank the city. On the 27th August, a Ukrainian source claimed that no reserves will be sent to Pokrovsk because they are needed in Kursk. Another Ukrainian source claims that Zelensky has asked the SBU to act preemptively against anyone who criticises the government and its handling of the war. On the 27th August, the Russians captured the city Novohrodivka and will use it as a springboard to attack Pokrovsk itself.
On the 28th August, Rezident reported that Zelensky/Syrsky’s opening of the Kursk front employing some of Ukraine’s (NATO’s) best troops/equipment is seen by the General staff as a betrayal. The Kursk operation has deprived units in the Pokrovsk Direction of men, materiel and ammunition which explains why Russian movement has accelerated. Whereas in the past the Ukrainians were motivated to stand and fight, now they are retreating instead.
This lack of motivation was evident in the fact that the city of Selidovo was surrendered without a fight on the 29th August. The battle for Mirnograd began on the same day.
A Ukrainian source reported that Syrsky is proposing a flank attack on the Russians at Pokrovsk, which will stall the Kursk offensive. However, another Ukrainian source claimed that their army does not possess sufficient heavy equipment and reserves to launch a flanking attack. One Ukrainian source claims that MI6 has advised the Ukrainian military that Russia has introduced 5 new brigades to the Pokrovsk Direction. MI6 suggested that the Ukrainians reinforce the area quickly or risk losing Pokrovsk to a Russian flank attack. According to this report, the Ukrainians are attacking the Russians on the flanks of Pokrovsk but have had no success due to a shortage of men and shells/weapons. Reserves are being pulled from Kramatorsk and Pavlograd rather than Kursk.
Azov commander, Roman Ponomarenko, has said that the Donbass front is on the verge of collapse due to tiredness and indiscipline (due to forced mobilization) among Ukraine’s forces. The only reason that the Russians haven’t advanced further, he said, is because they are also exhausted. The average age of a Ukrainian soldier is now 48 years.
Uhledar/Konstantinovka
The village of Konstantinyvka fell on the 28th August. Some Ukrainians are concerned that Uheledar could be encircled in the near future.
Zaporozhye
There has been a build up of Ukrainian forces in this Direction and attacks towards Tokmak and the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant are anticipated.
The Economic War
New Russian Middle Class Emerging
According to Intellinews, a new Russian middle class is emerging as a result of the war which has created more jobs, increased salaries and reduced the poverty rate from 13.5% in 2016 to 8.5% in 2023. Retail turnover has increased as the flush middle classes spend their money.
US Threatens Countries Which Host Russian Banks
The US is threatening to impose sanctions on countries hosting Russian banks in a move that highlights the economic nature of the war being fought between Russia and the West. Russia is accused of opening subsidiary banks in other countries in order to circumvent sanctions.
EU Steals Russian Funds
The EU has finally started dipping its grubby paws into Russia’s pocket (i.e. interest on frozen Russian assets) to pinch a cool $1.55 Billions as a donation to Ukraine’s war chest. Russia will take legal action against this thievery.
No More Gas Or Oil - Podolyak
Podolyak has advised that the Druzhba oil pipeline through Ukraine will be closed on January 1st 2025. This will be bad news for Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The supply of Russian gas will also cease to run through Ukraine on this day.
World Politics
RFK Jnr. Joins Trump
RFK Jnr. has announced that he will be joining Donald Trump’s campaign against the Democrats because he believes in free speech, freedom from the pharmaceuticals and an end to wars, especially the Ukraine war. In contrast to his treatment by the Democrats, who shunned him, calling him a ‘conspiracy theorist’ the Republicans gave him an amazing reception when he turned up at a Trump rally. Kim Iverson provides some coverage here. Both he and Trump are singing from the same hymn sheets in many respects but unfortunately this appears to include unconditional support for Israel. The Democrat Party and Kennedy’s own family have condemned his decision.
Telegram Creator Pavel Durov Arrested in Paris
The Russian entrepreneur who created Telegram has been arrested in Paris. French authorities have said that ‘insufficient moderation’ allows the platform to be widely used by criminals. But we all know that this about stifling the truth and is part of the war between the West and Russia. Tucker Carlson said that the arrest is:
A living warning to any platform owner who refuses to censor the truth at the behest of governments and intel agencies. Darkness is descending fast on the formerly free world.
Elon Musk was also scathing of the arrest: he could be next. You can read more at RT. The arrest follows Durov’s refusal to stop anti-Israeli activists posting classified Israeli information on Telegram. He faces 10 years in prison.
Charges include: Complicity in securing illegal transactions; complicity in the possession of pornographic material, including with minors; complicity in drug trafficking; complicity in fraud; providing cryptologic services; refusal to provide necessary information or documents requested by authorized bodies.
It looks as though the West is determined to silence voices that are telling the truth and the loss of Telegram would be catastrophic. Personally, I would lose many important resources. But let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. A battle royal will now be fought between the forces of darkness in the West and those who believe in free speech. Orwellian Westerners will say that they are depriving us of freedoms in order to make us free. In the US, Attorney General, Merrick Garland has warned journalists and others that anyone disagreeing with the election results will face court action. The land of the free - my arse.
Vyacheslav Volodin, Chair of the Russian Duma, has suggested that the arrest of Durov has been orchestrated because the Democrats do not have control of this platform during the electioneering period. They will either stifle it or attempt to gain some control over it. But some politicians, such as Lukashenko, agree with the arrest. If he is guilty of a crime, he should be held accountable, he said. According to this article, the platform is also under investigation in India for extortion, gambling and cheating scams - and could face a ban.
Durov was later released from custody but is not allowed to leave France having paid bail of 5 millions Euros.
Attempts at censorship were also made by a Supreme Judge in Brazil who wanted to ban X for not conforming to a request to censor the government’s political opponents - according to Zero Hedge. That is worrying coming from a BRICS country - assuming its true of course.
Hungary
Hungary is attempting to do a deal with Ukraine so that it can import Russian oil. Ukraine has stopped the oil in accordance with sanctions but there could be a way around this. You can read more at RT. The country, which is overburdened with migrants, has said that it could pay asylum seekers to travel to the West - according to a government spokesman. Hungary is being fined because it is not conforming to EU rules on migrants. Note that Podolyak (above) said that the oil and gas will be cut off in January - so if deal is made, it won’t last long.
Trump - We’re Running Out Of Ammo
On the campaign trail with JD Vance in North Carolina, Trump lamented that the US is desperately short of ammunition because: ‘We gave it all up to Ukraine and various other places. We gave them everything’.
Poland - We’re Running Out of Weapons
Deputy Prime Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz (pictured), has announced that Poland can no longer supply weapons to Ukraine without compromising its own safety. He pointed out that Poland had already given Ukraine billions of dollars’ worth of equipment.
The emerging Multi-Polar World Order
Palestine to Attend BRICS
The Palestinian ambassador (above) has said that his country has been invited to send a delegate to the BRICS conference in Kazan this October. They will submit an application to join BRICS following the conference.
Venezuela On The Orbit of BRICS
Venezuela, which is already involved on the fringes of BRICS, hopes to join the organisation at Kazan in October - according to Sputnik.
BRICS+ Young Diplomats Forum - Bashkortostan
According to Sputnik, the forum is:
an initiative launched by the Council of Young Diplomats of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2015, is once again drawing attention as it seeks to strengthen ties among the youth of the Global South and East. The forum, which aligns with Russia's BRICS Chairmanship this year, serves as a platform for promoting youth cooperation, fostering friendships, and building trust among the diverse populations of these regions.
That’s it for yet another eventful week. I am grateful for your views, subscriptions, likes, shares and comments. Best wishes - Rob
The phrase derives from ancient times when people would ‘turn their noses up’ when confronted with danger (e.g. poisonous gasses) or unpleasantness. In this context, it means rejection: the Russians will not reject this opportunity.
The West's recent attacks on free speech: Richard Medhurst and Pavlov Durov, and the FBI's attempted intimidation of Scott Ritter, are ominous. It suggests that the West is clearing the decks for a big MSM propaganda effort on the coming WW3. Why now? Because all of the major oil producing nations are embracing BRICS+, and are some of 159 nations heading to the BRICS+ conference in Kazan in October. This is terrifying western nations, all of whom are in economic decline, partly due to the stupidity of taking on Russia, and threatening China and Iran.
It is not for nothing that Russia sent naval vessels to Cuba, months ago. I think that Doctorow is right. Though a Russian defence person spoke of obliterating the UK, that would still leave the head of the serpent in tact. Russia is closely watching every US move, and the minute it threatens Russia Washington will be toast. There is so much hubris in the Washington Consensus that the big worry is that they will ignore all the red flags that Russia is flying.
And what of the middle east? Why hasn't Iran struck back? Russia has been helping Iran get all its ducks in a row with S-400s, and I'm told S-500s, too. They appear to be playing the attrition game, because it will be much less costly to their civilians and infrastructure, They know that Israel grows weaker economically, and militarily, by the day, while their defences grow much stronger.
We live in interesting, but very dangerous, times.
I listened to Doctorow's concepts in a couple of places. As Scott Ritter and Larry Johnson pointed out, he's not a military expert and his 100-plane nuclear attack from the Med is fantasy - the planes would need refueling and that's hardly a "surprise attack. Of course, as Doctorow points out, what matters is what the Russians believe. But the Russian General Staff knows a fantasy when they see one, too.
Ritter has been hammering away at the likelihood that Russia will hit the US with nukes if US missiles are used by Ukraine inside Russia. I doubt that. Russia can do all sort of damage to the US outside the continental US and using hypersonics with conventional warheads to do so. What matters is what the US does then, not what Russia does.
For now it seems clear that Russia is busy arming anti-US parties such as North Korea and Ansarallah as well as Iran with some of their "overflow" advanced aircraft, AD, and EW hardware, and probably intelligence as well.
And while the Russians may have to "trust" the US that F-16s in Ukraine are not carrying nukes, they also know the US would be insane to try a nuclear attack on Russia with a handful of F-16s, even under cover of the Ukraine war. This scenario reminds me of all the scenarios people talked about before the war, where every NATO exercise with a hundred planes or so was thought to be a "cover" for a "surprise attack on Russia." All of that was utter nonsense and this is, too. It simply can't be done without the sort of movement that would be telegraphed to the Russian (and Chinese) signals intelligence and ISR. You can't hide that units charged with nuclear materials handling are doing more today than they did yesterday. The US knows what Russia does in that regard and vice versa. WWIII will never be a "surprise" - it will be deliberate.
If the Ukrainians with US help launch missiles that do any significant damage inside Russia, the Russians will just increase use of their hypersonics and take out the bases involved in Poland and Romania after making sure Ukraine doesn't have any left. NATO won't do anything, because they can't.
The US may be planning a first strike on Russia for the future, but they aren't there, yet. As Ritter pointed out yesterday, most of the US nuclear assets are old, falling apart, and lately Minuteman missiles tests have failed at increasing rates, which is why - mostly for the economic benefits to the MIC - they want to spend a trillion dollars refurbishing all of it.
Personally I assume there will be WWIII, but I suspect it will start over Taiwan rather than Ukraine, mostly because Ukraine won't exist by this time next year. It will end with China and Russia destroying the US and Europe.
I saw a quote by one of my favorite actresses, Winona Ryder, yesterday to the effect that "I give it four or fives years before the world just fucking explodes."
That sounds about right.