"which turned out to be so toothless that Iran did not feel the need for an immediate response. So, many of us have now breathed a sigh of relief."
And that's a mistake. Israel did not NEED to make a heavy attack. Why waste military assets that would be needed later to deal with Hezbollah and Iran? Israel knew that Iran already explicitly said that ANY attack by Israel on Iran would result in Iran hitting Israel harder.
So Iran will do what it said and hit back harder. Israel and the US will than have another incident to bolster their casus belli for going to war.
So any sigh of relief is far too premature.
People need to stop talking about how the US is "being dragged" into a wider war. Brian Berletic has covered the 2009 Brookings Institute paper numerous times which lays this exact progression of events in order for the US to start a war with Iran without being blamed for it, by provoking the Iranians in a series of incidents into being the casus belli for the war.
We're seeing it happening now.
Here is the latest Berletic on that paper just six days ago - a must-view:
The 2009 US Policy Paper that Laid out Future Israel-Iran War
Thanks for taking time for the regular updates Rob. Much appreciated.
I see some reports that UA soldiers saying they are now outnumbered at the front.
Locally or across the front is the question?
Just doing basic calculations on the losses in the conflict for the combatants for Ukraine's army they must be in excess of 1.5 million casualties now.
My reasoning is this.
When the RF started the SMO they were rumoured to have used max. around 180,000 troops initially.
With the UA around 500,000-regulars and reserves?
UA has probably recruited well over a million (1.5 million even, conscripts and volunteers)
So fielded UA army figure of approx. 2 million..
The RF has had casualties obviously but has only maintained and slowly expanded its army from, what I can see.
So RF has fielded, throughout conflict, maximum 600,000.-1 million?
From reports, state releases etc
So average 2 to 1 superiority in numbers fielded throughout the conflict to UA.
In my opinion RF casualties, are indeed heavy and could well be in excess of 300,000.
if considering all data from RF, Mediazona? Ukraine reports etc.
Now If the RF superiority reported at the front is noticeable then its definitely not only qualitative but also numerical by definition.
We can only suppose or subject it could be a minimum 2 to 1 ratio of effectives.
This highlights good build up, rotation and strategy on behalf of the RF.
But figuratively if RF has fielded 600.000 to 1 million troops and suffered 300,000 casualties.
it is now fielding approx. 700,000 troops.
At a 2 to 1 ratio that would mean the UA army is down to approx. 350,000 troops.
Down from 2 million fielded
Which suggests in the region of 1.5 to anywhere in the region of 1.75 million casualties.
A bloodbath! and apparently the US aid budget to be voted on is rumoured to be released on the conditions of Ukraine mobilising another 1.5 million for an offensive.
The UA know the war is lost, The US knows this too.
The UA know they don't have the manpower to recruit save for children, pensioners and women.
I think the war will be over in 3 months and the misappropriation of the US aid package if it comes will be a final payday for the MIC and Ukraine corrupts.
I agree with your figures. 1.5 million killed and wounded. The problem Ukraine has is that the population pyramid shows the birth rates nose dived in the 1990s so there are very few men and women of core military age. Most of them are either dead or left or are in hiding. Ukraine is finished. The population pyramid is interesting. It shows that some event happened in Ukraine that impacted on the birth rates. The event was Ukraine running its own affairs and the oligarchs taking over. There was rampant inflation etc. It was all a bit 1920s Germany. The Russians had the same issue in the early 90s.. But then Putin came to power... No wonder the old Ukrainians want the Russians back.
Thanks, Simplicus put out a chart on Ukrainian demographics in his most recent report as well that verifies the birth figures and what you're saying about the post soviet disaster for birth rates..
Those lucky people who left Ukraine are not going back anytime soon, if ever.
To pursue the war, on Ukraine's part, can only be considered futile or mass incompetence. Like Germany in WW2 post 1945.
The aid package will not make any difference except to Zelensky and cos. bank accounts.
Look at the quote from Nancy Pelosi about the aid vote.
'Those who block aid bill will have 'blood on their hands'
So true - the truth is often the exact opposite of the way it is represented to us in the legacy media - and the Ukraine conflict is a good example of that. And so is dear Nancy's recitation of words put on a piece of paper for her to read - which you quote. Nancy has been fed Orwellian double speak - i.e. those who oppose the funding of war are drowned in blood rather than those who promote it.
Iran needed to send a message to Israel and the US otherwise they would get more brazen. Israel's response was muted to avoid escalation. Iran has just demonstrated that she can hit any city in Israel, any US base in the middle east and any US or allied military vessels in the Red Sea or Indian Ocean. Basically, Iran just said to the imperium that the natives now have the means to really hurt you. It also means that Israel rather than a valuable asset is now a dangerous liability to the west. Coupled with Russia it looks like the west/nato/eu is caught in a pincer by the global south in wars of attrition that hasten the demise of the old order. Cameron is an idiot. He typifies the Scottish lairdy class that sold their Scottish holdings to join the metropolitan elite back in the day. It was only 10 years ago that he was delaying the broadcasting of Outlander in Scotland less it stirred the natives into revolt at the indy ref. And,, he attempted to recruit Putin to the NO cause. Seemed back then Putin was deemed a nice guy and the UK establishment didn't mind him potentially interering in UK internal matters. But as i recall Putin declined to comment on the Scottish indy vote because he was more principled than Cameron.
"which turned out to be so toothless that Iran did not feel the need for an immediate response. So, many of us have now breathed a sigh of relief."
And that's a mistake. Israel did not NEED to make a heavy attack. Why waste military assets that would be needed later to deal with Hezbollah and Iran? Israel knew that Iran already explicitly said that ANY attack by Israel on Iran would result in Iran hitting Israel harder.
So Iran will do what it said and hit back harder. Israel and the US will than have another incident to bolster their casus belli for going to war.
So any sigh of relief is far too premature.
People need to stop talking about how the US is "being dragged" into a wider war. Brian Berletic has covered the 2009 Brookings Institute paper numerous times which lays this exact progression of events in order for the US to start a war with Iran without being blamed for it, by provoking the Iranians in a series of incidents into being the casus belli for the war.
We're seeing it happening now.
Here is the latest Berletic on that paper just six days ago - a must-view:
The 2009 US Policy Paper that Laid out Future Israel-Iran War
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO5ywKinsG0&t=1s
Cheers Richard
Thanks for taking time for the regular updates Rob. Much appreciated.
I see some reports that UA soldiers saying they are now outnumbered at the front.
Locally or across the front is the question?
Just doing basic calculations on the losses in the conflict for the combatants for Ukraine's army they must be in excess of 1.5 million casualties now.
My reasoning is this.
When the RF started the SMO they were rumoured to have used max. around 180,000 troops initially.
With the UA around 500,000-regulars and reserves?
UA has probably recruited well over a million (1.5 million even, conscripts and volunteers)
So fielded UA army figure of approx. 2 million..
The RF has had casualties obviously but has only maintained and slowly expanded its army from, what I can see.
So RF has fielded, throughout conflict, maximum 600,000.-1 million?
From reports, state releases etc
So average 2 to 1 superiority in numbers fielded throughout the conflict to UA.
In my opinion RF casualties, are indeed heavy and could well be in excess of 300,000.
if considering all data from RF, Mediazona? Ukraine reports etc.
Now If the RF superiority reported at the front is noticeable then its definitely not only qualitative but also numerical by definition.
We can only suppose or subject it could be a minimum 2 to 1 ratio of effectives.
This highlights good build up, rotation and strategy on behalf of the RF.
But figuratively if RF has fielded 600.000 to 1 million troops and suffered 300,000 casualties.
it is now fielding approx. 700,000 troops.
At a 2 to 1 ratio that would mean the UA army is down to approx. 350,000 troops.
Down from 2 million fielded
Which suggests in the region of 1.5 to anywhere in the region of 1.75 million casualties.
A bloodbath! and apparently the US aid budget to be voted on is rumoured to be released on the conditions of Ukraine mobilising another 1.5 million for an offensive.
The UA know the war is lost, The US knows this too.
The UA know they don't have the manpower to recruit save for children, pensioners and women.
I think the war will be over in 3 months and the misappropriation of the US aid package if it comes will be a final payday for the MIC and Ukraine corrupts.
I agree with your figures. 1.5 million killed and wounded. The problem Ukraine has is that the population pyramid shows the birth rates nose dived in the 1990s so there are very few men and women of core military age. Most of them are either dead or left or are in hiding. Ukraine is finished. The population pyramid is interesting. It shows that some event happened in Ukraine that impacted on the birth rates. The event was Ukraine running its own affairs and the oligarchs taking over. There was rampant inflation etc. It was all a bit 1920s Germany. The Russians had the same issue in the early 90s.. But then Putin came to power... No wonder the old Ukrainians want the Russians back.
Thanks, Simplicus put out a chart on Ukrainian demographics in his most recent report as well that verifies the birth figures and what you're saying about the post soviet disaster for birth rates..
Those lucky people who left Ukraine are not going back anytime soon, if ever.
To pursue the war, on Ukraine's part, can only be considered futile or mass incompetence. Like Germany in WW2 post 1945.
The aid package will not make any difference except to Zelensky and cos. bank accounts.
Look at the quote from Nancy Pelosi about the aid vote.
'Those who block aid bill will have 'blood on their hands'
The truth is the exact opposite of what she said.
So true - the truth is often the exact opposite of the way it is represented to us in the legacy media - and the Ukraine conflict is a good example of that. And so is dear Nancy's recitation of words put on a piece of paper for her to read - which you quote. Nancy has been fed Orwellian double speak - i.e. those who oppose the funding of war are drowned in blood rather than those who promote it.
Thanks for that Anthony.
Iran needed to send a message to Israel and the US otherwise they would get more brazen. Israel's response was muted to avoid escalation. Iran has just demonstrated that she can hit any city in Israel, any US base in the middle east and any US or allied military vessels in the Red Sea or Indian Ocean. Basically, Iran just said to the imperium that the natives now have the means to really hurt you. It also means that Israel rather than a valuable asset is now a dangerous liability to the west. Coupled with Russia it looks like the west/nato/eu is caught in a pincer by the global south in wars of attrition that hasten the demise of the old order. Cameron is an idiot. He typifies the Scottish lairdy class that sold their Scottish holdings to join the metropolitan elite back in the day. It was only 10 years ago that he was delaying the broadcasting of Outlander in Scotland less it stirred the natives into revolt at the indy ref. And,, he attempted to recruit Putin to the NO cause. Seemed back then Putin was deemed a nice guy and the UK establishment didn't mind him potentially interering in UK internal matters. But as i recall Putin declined to comment on the Scottish indy vote because he was more principled than Cameron.
Thanks for that.
rt.com is banned in the EU, so no point in giving that link. Better use archived version: https://web.archive.org/web/20240429105330/https://www.rt.com/russia/595839-ukraine-conscription-law-no-return/