This has been a tense week for anyone who has been following events in the Middle East - where on Saturday night Iran retaliated for the Israeli strike on its embassy in Damascas by launching drone and missile strikes on Israeli territory against military targets. This left many of us feeling anxious about the expected Israeli retaliation - which turned out to be so toothless that Iran did not feel the need for an immediate response. So, many of us have now breathed a sigh of relief.
Given the potential for escalation in the Middle East, my own focus has been drawn to the conflict there rather than Ukraine where things are not going well for the Ukrainian army. It seems that the Ukrainians are finding it difficult to hold back the Russians in some places due to the strength of their opponent and their own relative weakness. Cases of surrender and refusal to fight are on the increase, apparently, and precious reserves are being drawn into the battles. The once great Z has signed the new mobilisation bill which does not allow demobilisation for those who have been fighting for too long already. This will cause discontent at best and mutiny at worst. Russian is constantly launching missile and drone attacks: the largest of which occurred on the 18th/19th April - and Ukraine continues to attack civilian targets.
This week, the hypocrisy of Western leaders and journalists has climbed to new and dizzy heights. Our very own morally bankrupt idiot, David Cameron, attempted to argue in a TV interview that the Iranian strike was much worse than Israel’s illegal attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus because many more drones and missiles were employed than the Israelis did in Syria. But this is complete nonsense since the Israeli attack killed many people, whereas the Iranian attack, which Iran warned the Israelis and the Americans about in advance, killed no one. Moreover, the Israeli attack was launched without warning and was in breech of international law. Iran’s retaliation, on the other hand, was allowed under international law. Another example of this hypocrisy is the attitude of Macron towards Israeli participation in the Olympic games. How is it acceptable for Israel to compete when the International Court of Justice has accused it of genocide and yet the Russians, who face no such accusations, cannot compete as Russians and must conform to conditions of neutrality. I wish I’d been interviewing him!
As well as the hypocrisy, the West has also provided plenty of evidence that it simply doesn’t know what to do. The photograph of the Biden Administration (above) demonstrates this in my view. These people, apparently frustrated by events initiated by Israel, look as if they are out of ideas - at least that’s how I read it.
Syrsky - Looking Tired
Mobilization Woes
The new mobilisation law could cause a conflict between the Ukrainian regime and its people, according to some. Soldiers who have been on the front line awaiting rotation will be angered by the fact that they will now have to serve until the end of the conflict. All men between 18 and 60 will be required to register for military service whether they are living inside or outside Ukraine. Soldiers are saying that they are being ‘fooled and used’ as cannon fodder - according to RT.
Some members of government and the police forces will be exempt from service thereby dividing the people from the administration and providing the basis for a conflict between both sides. Veteran soldier, Ihor Mosiychuck, said that there is huge dissatisfaction among his older comrades: that the denial of their right to demobilisation has killed morale. They will not be too pleased with General Syrsky, who, it is reported, lobbied for the right to demobilization to be withheld. It is feared that this new mobilisation could cause panic among the population. One soldier had this to say (warning - language could be offensive to some):
there will be no demobilization. Not even after 36 months. This was the first clause that they removed in the new law. Well, what I want to tell you, Verkhovna Rada, with the rest of these fucking faggots. You have signed your own death warrant with this. Sooner or later, this will end, and you will all be found. You will answer for this. You, your children who ran the fuck away abroad... And thousands of servicemen are determined this way. So, boys, think about it. Or rather, no need to think anymore. Just run
In spite of the incendiary language and sentiments, there is no suggestion that this man or his colleagues will refuse to fight - but their hearts will not be in it.
I do not engage in speculating very much but I would not be at all surprised if demobilization is reintroduced in order to stave off mutiny. But that will reduce the numbers available for cannon fodder. We shall see.
Zelensky signed the new mobilisation bill into law on the 16th April. He has blamed the West’s failure to provide ammunition for Russia’s advances on the battlefields, according to RT. But manpower shortages including the mass avoidance of mobilisation are also causing problems.
Some Ukrainian sources are reporting that Zelensky was pushed into signing the mobilisation bill so that sufficient forces could be accumulated for an offensive at the end of summer. This would, hopefully, take territory back from the Russians and boost Sleepy Joe’s election hopes. According to resident, the US congress insisted that the demobilisation section of the bill be removed so that more troops would be available for this offensive which would be heavy in infantry and would take enormous casualties - according to legitimniy.
Of course, this plan for a late summer offensive is premised on a) Ukraine’s ability to catch sufficient numbers of eligible males and females b) the assumption that Ukraine’s army is still in the field come the end of summer c) The availability of weapons and ammunition. I can’t see the offensive happening and for the sake of the Ukrainians, I hope it doesn’t.
Ukraine Heading For Defeat - Politico
Long gone are the days when the ‘Ukraine is winning’ narrative dominated the Western media. Most sources now acknowledge the possibility or inevitability of a Ukraine defeat. Jamie Dettmer, opinion editor at Politico is among them. In a recent article, he had this to say:
It’s not just that Ukraine’s forces are running out of ammunition. Western delays over sending aid mean the country is dangerously short of something even harder to supply than shells: the fighting spirit required to win. Morale among troops is grim, ground down by relentless bombardment, a lack of advanced weapons, and losses on the battlefield. In cities hundreds of miles away from the front, the crowds of young men who lined up to join the army in the war’s early months have disappeared. Nowadays, eligible would-be recruits dodge the draft and spend their afternoons in nightclubs instead. Many have left the country altogether.
During the course of dozens of interviews he conducted with Ukrainian politicians, military officers and ordinary citizens there appears to be an acceptance that the country is heading for disaster.
Commander Syrsky has admitted that the situation on the fronts has deteriorated considerably this week and the once great Z himself said that the army is trying to find some way not to retreat. Exasperated minister, Dmytro Kuleba, pleaded ‘give us the damn Patriots!’. And in answer to his prayer some may be coming soon from Germany and other places.
Swiss Peace Summit - Mid June
Z has talked about this summit recently. It will exclude Russia which is not interested in negotiating, according to Z. This is rich coming from a man who has literally outlawed negotiations with Russia. Putin has said that he is willing to engage in negotiations but only if these are based on the new realities in Ukraine. Putin cannot be expected to take a peace summit seriously if it excludes Russia. Z explained that Russia is not being invited because it will block the plan. Putin wants nothing less than the total destruction of Ukraine, according to Z:
So, we understand that he's not ready for any negotiations. He doesn't want to. He's not interested. It's not about winning for him. He wants victory. And for him, victory is to destroy Ukraine.
I think something may have been lost in translation here: in common parlance ‘winning’ and ‘victory’ are the same thing. This appears to say that Putin is not content with winning, he also wants destruction because he is pure evil or whatever. Of course, Putin would much prefer that Ukraine remains intact.
We Don’t Wanna Fight
A recent survey of Ukrainian men aged 25-59 indicated that only 20% would consider joining the army while 24% said that nothing could motivate them to join.
Russian v Ukrainian Language
In spite of this, Z has announced that the Russian language will cease to be broadcast in three months - according to RT.
Don’t Care About The Flag
Last week I quoted a report on the Ukrainian channel legitimniy which suggested that there is a growing feeling among Ukrainians that the flag they live under is much less important than their need for peace and tranquility. This flash of rationality is pleasing. I’ve always been torn between two flags: that of Scotland and Wales - but at the end of the day, security is more important than nationality - and so it has been throughout the ages.
What Are Military Targets?
There has been much discussion about the legitimacy of Russian and Ukrainian air attacks under the Geneva convention which states:
Military objectives are limited to those objects which by their nature, location, purpose or use make an effective contribution to military action and whose total or partial destruction, capture or neutralization, in the circumstances ruling at the time, offers a definite military advantage.
So, when Russia attacks Ukraine’s electric infrastructure, this confers a definite military advantage so is permissible whereas Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries does not impact on Russia’s ability to wage war so they are civilian targets (according to the convention). Russia’s attacks on schools and hospitals which are being used by the Ukrainians for military purposes (which is often the case) are also military targets according to the convention.
I knew nothing about Ukraine when I first started doing this Update - about two years ago. But the image presented to me by the legacy media at that time was of an unprovoked Russian attack, of an evil dictator bent on world domination, of Russian targeting civilians, hospitals and so on. And the great Z was a hero of Hollywood proportions, defending his free and democratic country. This became fixed for some people among family and friends who wouldn’t consult the ‘conspiracy ridden’ alternative media.
I can’t remember a situation like this when the ‘representation’ of something was the exact opposite of the reality. Z rather than Putin is the baddy. Ukraine is highly influenced by a fascist-type ideology in both the political and military fields. Ukraine, rather than Russia, started this war more than ten years ago and Ukraine rather than Russia has been targeting civilians. Russia does not want extra lands: it has enough territory already as the largest landmass in the world. And Vladimir Putin, who I have come to admire as one of the greatest politicians of our age, is not a dictator though he has more power than Western politicians who are mostly puppets.
Russel (Texas) Bentley Goes Missing
One of the bloggers/war correspondents I have been following for some time has disappeared in Donetsk. Hope he will turn up safe and well.
Ukrainian Terrorist Attacks (those that target civilians)
12th/13th April
On the 12th April, Vasily Prozorov, former SBU officer who defected to Russia many years ago was injured by an explosive device planted in his car outside his home in Moscow.. The Ukrainian SBU are suspected. Prozorov (above) has taken to social media to tell everyone that he is well.
Also on the 12th, the Ukrainians attacked Tokmak (Zaporizhye) with cluster munitions killing six (including a child) and injuring 20 others. Later reports indicate that ten were killed in this attack with another two missing. Bryansk and Belgorod were attacked by 12 ‘aircraft type’ drones one of which crashed into an administrative building injuring two civilians. Ten members of the DPR’s emergency services were injured by drones while attending a fire at a residential building in Gorlovka.
13th/14th April Overnight
Ten ‘aircraft type’ drones were shot down over Krasnador (west of Kerch) overnight while another five were shot down over the Black Sea near Crimea. Earlier, several drones were shot down over Kursk.
14th/15th April Overnight
155 mm shells injured seven people in the DPR on the 14th April.
15th/16th April Overnight
Lugansk was attacked overnight, seriously injuring seven individuals at a machinery plant. In Tokmak (Zaporizhye) MLRS projectiles killed 16 people, including 4 children, while another 20 received injuries. 45 projectiles were lobbed into the DPR overnight and a drone strike killed a man in Horlivka.
16th/17th April Overnight
Belgorod and Kursk were shelled overnight but only one casualty was reported. 41 projectiles were lobbed into the DPR causing no casualties.
17th/18th April
Belgorod came under attack again overnight. 14 out of 22 projectiles were destroyed but some got through to damage a residential apartment building and injure a woman in the foot.
18th/19th April
25 projectiles were shot down over Belgorod region around midnight on the 18th April but drones and missiles caused damage to residential buildings. 133 rounds of ammunition were fired into the DPR wounding 11 civilians.
The Air War
Russian Drone/Missile Attacks
14th/15th April Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
The RFAF continue daily strikes of varying intensity against enemy rear facilities. During the day, enemy personnel sites in the Sumy region and an energy facility in Kharkov were hit. Explosions of "Geraniums" sounded in Dnepropetrovsk.
15th/16th April Overnight
According to Rybar:
Overnight, strikes targeted enemy locations in Starokonstantinov, Khmelnytskyi region, Uman, Cherkasy region, Kherson, Novyi Buh, Mykolaiv region, Mirgorod, Poltava region. At this time, the weakening of enemy air defenses enables problem resolution with less destruction.
17th/18th April Overnight
According to Slavyangrad:
Missile strikes on enemy targets have been carried out in the areas of Nezhyn in Chernigov region, Yuzhny in Odessa region and Krivoy Rog in Dnepropetrovsk region.
According to the Two Majors:
The RFAF, yesterday, launched a missile attack on Chernigov, hitting a personnel deployment point. The blow also hit Konstantinovka, where the enemy's manpower was hiding in a school. During the day, our troops hit targets in Starokonstantinov, Khmelnitsky region, Kiev region, KrivoyRog, Odessa region, Kurakhovo (DPR temporarilly AFU occupied).
18th/19th April Overnight
On the evening of the 18th April, Dnipro airport was attacked: MiG-29 aircraft and warehouses sustained damage.
According to the Two Majors:
The RFAF conducted a combined strike on enemy rear facilities at night. In the first half of the night, enemy air defence systems and targets were destroyed by the Geran UAV. At 05:00, missiles launched from strategic Tu-95ms entered the airspace of Ukraine. Multiple explosions were heard in Dnepropetrovsk, Pavlograd, Odessa, KrivoyRog, Poltava and Kharkov regions. Yesterday it also became known that as a result of the strike on the Dnepropetrovsk airfield, the RFAF destroyed three MiG-29s with cluster munitions. The presence of a Russian UAV conducting objective control over an enemy airfield at the moment of impact was indicative.
Ukraine Missile/Drone Attacks
17th April Morning
The airfield at Dzhankoy in northern Crimea was attacked overnight causing some damage and a fire. It appears that ATACMS may have been used.
17th April Evening
Dzhankoy airport was attacked once more: this time by ATACMS (12 altogether) in two waves. Airport buildings were damaged and an S-400 Triumph air defence system, including launchers and radar, were hit. Some believe that the attack was meant to weaken Russian air defences as a prelude to attacking the Crimean bridge. An oil depot was targeted in Voronezh but the drone was shot down causing a fire to a lumber warehouse. This was the only attack on oil facilities that I have seen reported this week - and it was a little half hearted. So maybe the Ukrainians are heeding Western demands that oil storage and production are taboo. Maybe.
Three drones were also destroyed over Rostov region and the DPR suffered an attack by 54 shells. Three civilians were injured.
The Ground War
This week, the tempo of Russian advances has increased but ground is gained, typically, no more than two kilometres at a time. But there are signs that the quality of Ukrainian troops is declining sharply and their appetite for fighting is declining even more. For example, the 65th, 25th and 115th brigades have all been guilty of abandoning their positions, according to Yury Podolyaka. But the increased Russian pressure has also contributed to these retreats.
Russian MoD Reports
w/e 29th March 5770 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 361
w/e 5th April 5075 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 321.
w/e 12th April 6685 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 338.
w/e 19th April 7225 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 319.
Note the massive increase in casualties over the past two weeks and the relative consistency of the equipment losses. Does this mean that fewer vehicles are available for the infantry? The experts will know.
The Fronts
Chasiv Yar
Fierce fighting continues in Chasiv Yar, especially around the eastern suburbs but there has been little change in the line of contact - according to the Two Majors. The Ukrainians are bringing reserves into the area after the 65th brigade fled the battlefield in this direction enabling the Russians to make significant advances.
Avdeevka
According to the Two Majors:
In the SouthDonetsk direction (southwest of Avdeyevka}, the RFAF are advancing in the south of Krasnogorovka, our artillery and aviation are working closely. Our troops are already operating north of the railway tracks.
Ocheretyne (North West of Avdeyevka)
On the 18th April, according to the Two Majors:
Northwest of Avdeyevka, the Russian Army is trying to cover Novokalinovo. The significant advance of our troops at Ocheretino was the reason for discussions in the Ukrainian segment of social networks.
On the same day, Slavyangrad reported that:
The enemy is urgently moving reinforcements from the 30th and 59th mechanized brigades in an attempt to prevent the Russian Armed Forces from breaking through to the central part of Ocheretino, which is located on an elevated position relative to Novokalinovo and Novobakhmutovka - from here it is possible to control the surrounding area.
Yury Podolyaka has this to say about the situation at Ocheretino:
Ocheretino is a very important strategic location. It is slightly less important than Chasov Yar, but it is still extremely important for the Central Donetsk sector. Once Ukraine loses Ocheretino, it will lose the last convenient defense line to the north and west of Donetsk, and it will have to retreat further. Moreover, the flanks and rear of Ukraine's Toretsk grouping will be exposed, while the Russian army is also approaching this grouping from Chasov Yar in the north.
Kherson
On April 19th, according to the Two Majors:
In the Kherson direction, the AFU maintains a presence on our shore in Krynki and at the Antonovsky Bridge. The day before yesterday, the AFU replenished their manpower with a small landing force. There are mutual attacks, enemy drones still pose a serious threat. In addition, the AFU regularly fire at civilians. Yesterday, as a result of an enemy strike on Alyoshki, a civilian received shrapnel wounds.
Berdychi
Fighting continues around Berdychi and Semyonovka with no significant changes, according to Slavyangrad.
Zaporizhye
On April 19th the Two Majors reported that:
On the Zaporozhye front, there are battles in Rabotino, they report the advance of our troops northwest of Verbovoye. The enemy has a lot of drones with night cameras. Baba Yaga hexacopters and FPV have become one of the AFU main means of hitting in the direction. The use of Israeli cluster mortar mines M971 caliber 120 mm by the AFU is reported. In the afternoon, a Ukrainian drone was shot down over the ZNPP. Attacks on the nuclear facility have become permanent.
The Economic War
Russia/China Growth
China’s economy grew by 5.2% over the past year and it is expected to grow at around 5% in the coming twelve months - according to the Financial Times. The IMF has increased its growth forecast for the Russian economy from 2.6% to 3.2% - according to RT.
Lithuania/Latvia
Lithuania has resumed purchases of Russian grain after realising that it can’t afford to do without it. Latvia has also increased purchases of Russian grain this year.
US Deficit Dangerous to World Economy - IMF
The massive US deficit poses ‘significant risks’ to the world economy according to the IMF. It also sent a warning to the UK that it must address ‘fundamental fiscal imbalances.
World Politics
Russian Orthodox Church Terrorist - Estonian Minister
The head of the Estonian Ministry of Internal Affairs Lauri Läänemets (pictured) intends to propose that parliament recognises the Russian Orthodox Church as a terrorist organisation so that it’s activities in Estonia can be stopped. Hold on. What is it about Church activity that permits it to be judged as terrorist? Maria Zakharova noted that the Estonian authorities are showing signs of mental illness and problems with logic. I think these are widespread problems in the West.
Olympic Games - Paris
The hypocrisy of the West is clearly in evidence through institutions such as the UN, the ICC or the ICJ but the Olympic Games is no better. Macron isn’t banning Israel from the games because ‘it is not an attacker’. Well Emmanuel, tell that to the Palestinians who have suffered Israeli attacks for decades and now face genocide. But Russians are not allowed to compete as Russians because their country attacked Ukraine - but only after their fellow countrymen had been attacked by Ukrainians for about ten years - killing around 14,000 civilians. Someone from Info Defense suggests he open the other eye so that he can see things more clearly.
US Blocks Palestine Bid to Join UN
No surprise there.
Xi - 4 Principles for Ukraine
In order to prevent the Ukraine war spiraling out of control Xi suggested that all parties should adopt the following four principles:
First, we should prioritize the upholding of peace and stability and refrain from seeking selfish gains. Second, we should cool down the situation and not add fuel to the fire. Third, we need to create conditions for the restoration of peace and refrain from further exacerbating tensions. Fourth, we should reduce the negative impact on the world economy and refrain from undermining the stability of global industrial and supply chains,
Israel Expects
Simone Halperin, Israel’s ambassador to Russia, said that she expects the Kremlin to condemn Iran’s attacks on Israel. In reply, Maria Zakharova said:
Simona, remind me when Israel condemned at least one strike by the Kiev regime on Russian regions? You don't remember? Neither do I. But I remember regular statements in support of Zelensky’s actions from Israeli officials. Those very criminal, terrorist actions of the bastards on Bankova, as a result of which, year after year, civilians are killed and civilian infrastructure is destroyed.
Simona forgot to mention that the attacks were in retaliation for Israel’s destruction of the Iranian consulate in Syria - which broke acceptable levels of human decency as well as international law. Consistency is not a common attribute among Western diplomats.
The Multi-Polar World Order
Colombia to Join BRICS
On the 17th April, according to a Columbian newspaper:
President Petro expressed Colombia's interest in joining BRICS. Bogota would like to become a full member of the organization soon. Brasil will promote Bogota's candidacy, according to a joint statement following a meeting between Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Brazilian leader Lula da Silva.
That’s it for another tense week. Many thanks for your views, subscriptions, likes, shares and comments. Best wishes Rob
"which turned out to be so toothless that Iran did not feel the need for an immediate response. So, many of us have now breathed a sigh of relief."
And that's a mistake. Israel did not NEED to make a heavy attack. Why waste military assets that would be needed later to deal with Hezbollah and Iran? Israel knew that Iran already explicitly said that ANY attack by Israel on Iran would result in Iran hitting Israel harder.
So Iran will do what it said and hit back harder. Israel and the US will than have another incident to bolster their casus belli for going to war.
So any sigh of relief is far too premature.
People need to stop talking about how the US is "being dragged" into a wider war. Brian Berletic has covered the 2009 Brookings Institute paper numerous times which lays this exact progression of events in order for the US to start a war with Iran without being blamed for it, by provoking the Iranians in a series of incidents into being the casus belli for the war.
We're seeing it happening now.
Here is the latest Berletic on that paper just six days ago - a must-view:
The 2009 US Policy Paper that Laid out Future Israel-Iran War
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO5ywKinsG0&t=1s
Thanks for taking time for the regular updates Rob. Much appreciated.
I see some reports that UA soldiers saying they are now outnumbered at the front.
Locally or across the front is the question?
Just doing basic calculations on the losses in the conflict for the combatants for Ukraine's army they must be in excess of 1.5 million casualties now.
My reasoning is this.
When the RF started the SMO they were rumoured to have used max. around 180,000 troops initially.
With the UA around 500,000-regulars and reserves?
UA has probably recruited well over a million (1.5 million even, conscripts and volunteers)
So fielded UA army figure of approx. 2 million..
The RF has had casualties obviously but has only maintained and slowly expanded its army from, what I can see.
So RF has fielded, throughout conflict, maximum 600,000.-1 million?
From reports, state releases etc
So average 2 to 1 superiority in numbers fielded throughout the conflict to UA.
In my opinion RF casualties, are indeed heavy and could well be in excess of 300,000.
if considering all data from RF, Mediazona? Ukraine reports etc.
Now If the RF superiority reported at the front is noticeable then its definitely not only qualitative but also numerical by definition.
We can only suppose or subject it could be a minimum 2 to 1 ratio of effectives.
This highlights good build up, rotation and strategy on behalf of the RF.
But figuratively if RF has fielded 600.000 to 1 million troops and suffered 300,000 casualties.
it is now fielding approx. 700,000 troops.
At a 2 to 1 ratio that would mean the UA army is down to approx. 350,000 troops.
Down from 2 million fielded
Which suggests in the region of 1.5 to anywhere in the region of 1.75 million casualties.
A bloodbath! and apparently the US aid budget to be voted on is rumoured to be released on the conditions of Ukraine mobilising another 1.5 million for an offensive.
The UA know the war is lost, The US knows this too.
The UA know they don't have the manpower to recruit save for children, pensioners and women.
I think the war will be over in 3 months and the misappropriation of the US aid package if it comes will be a final payday for the MIC and Ukraine corrupts.