Thanks for the shout out. I've been saying since April, 2022, that Russia will take all of Ukraine. There may or may not be "negotiations" - Ambassador Freeman said yesterday that wars usually end with negotiations, not "unconditional surrender" - but the end result will be the same: a Russian Military District in western Ukraine opposite those Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania. Russia may allow "Ukraine" to still "exist" with a fig leaf government of some sort, but that's not relevant to the necessary outcome for Russia's security which is that Russia has its air defenses as close to NATO as possible to intercept NATO missiles in boost phase rather than terminal phase over Moscow.
As an aside, I'm surprised Martyanov hasn't figured this out. But he knows western Ukrainians hate Russia, so he hates western Ukrainians and that colors his judgement. In reality, dealing with western Ukrainians won't be any harder than dealing with Chechens after the second Chechen war. Insurgencies are no longer possible in the "Drone Age" unless you are deep underground like Hamas, Hezbollah and the rest of the Axis of Resistance.
Speaking of which, everyone should watch that brilliantly produced 4 minute Hezbollah video of their Imad 4 redoubt buried deep in the mountains. Miles long tunnels with huge trucks loaded with missiles.
Im not convinced Russia will move beyond the four oblasts that have seceded from Ukraine. Putin seems at pains to act within the ambit of international law notwithstanding the strategic issues Russia would encounter crossing the Dneiper. To move to the west creates various issues and smirks of a colonial project the perception of which I think he is keen to avoid: The global south are watching. Plus, i think Russia's historic enemies still dream of the old Polish Lithuania commonwealth and would be at pains to get directly involved and inveigle Nato. Worrying times in the UK with the arrest of the journalist under the Terrorism Act. I suspect that the subjective media reporting of the ongoing conflicts, in part, is reflective of the consequences for balanced reporting. It seems we are supporting various protagonists on the pretext of upholding democracy at the same time as our own democracy is completely undermined by the same governments. No doubt Germans will now face new blanket repressive legislation, for the public good, after the recent attack.
The Ukrainian angle on Nordstream is nonsense as well the Germans know. As was pointed out by Ritter etc at the time the divers would needed to have had detailed knowledge of the pipes etc and access to high tech decompression chambers and experience of this type of work. The Norwegians are highly experienced in this area and would gain materially from a competitors pipeline network being sabotoged as would the US.
What do you think of John Healey's comments that 'the UK should be proud of British weapons being used to attack Russia'?
Clown world! People are meant to be happy about nazi fanatics trying to recreate the WW2 battle of Kursk and taking pot-shots at civilians and nuclear power stations.
Which made me think to check over the Rand report, on extending Russia, from 2019 again (https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html) if anyone wants to read it. and I noticed that a disinformation disclaimer had been added by the editor in 2022 to say black is white and white is black.
Incidentally I have been following the progress in Kursk from Southfront's maps which are fairly useful.
The RF continues to lose/cede territory and the UA continues to rush into them taking heavy losses.
With the bridges over the Seym river destroyed and Krasnooktyabrsky besieged it looks like the plan is to cut off the entire area below the river Seym.
Trapping it and perhaps similar to Ludendorf v Samsonov at Tannenberg in WW1 except using the river as part of the envelopment.
I have no idea how providing weapons to attack Russia should generate pride. But this is meant to appeal to the Russophobia among Brits that has been promoted for decades. I've heard about the Rand report but I'll have a read - thanks. As for Kursk, the fog of war is really dense there - let's see what happens.
Rob, do you have any information about the theft, by US corporations, of black soil from Ukraine? I read somewhere that it was 14 million tons. It appears that if Russia takes over Ukraine and gives them the boot, they will have already stolen some of what they came for.
I know that the soil in Ukraine is very fertile but I haven't come across any reports of attempts to steal it - though it is possible of course. Good to hear from you Joy.
Thanks for the shout out. I've been saying since April, 2022, that Russia will take all of Ukraine. There may or may not be "negotiations" - Ambassador Freeman said yesterday that wars usually end with negotiations, not "unconditional surrender" - but the end result will be the same: a Russian Military District in western Ukraine opposite those Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania. Russia may allow "Ukraine" to still "exist" with a fig leaf government of some sort, but that's not relevant to the necessary outcome for Russia's security which is that Russia has its air defenses as close to NATO as possible to intercept NATO missiles in boost phase rather than terminal phase over Moscow.
As an aside, I'm surprised Martyanov hasn't figured this out. But he knows western Ukrainians hate Russia, so he hates western Ukrainians and that colors his judgement. In reality, dealing with western Ukrainians won't be any harder than dealing with Chechens after the second Chechen war. Insurgencies are no longer possible in the "Drone Age" unless you are deep underground like Hamas, Hezbollah and the rest of the Axis of Resistance.
Speaking of which, everyone should watch that brilliantly produced 4 minute Hezbollah video of their Imad 4 redoubt buried deep in the mountains. Miles long tunnels with huge trucks loaded with missiles.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1824360691144278357
Thanks for the link Richard - Hezbollah look prepared and determined.
Im not convinced Russia will move beyond the four oblasts that have seceded from Ukraine. Putin seems at pains to act within the ambit of international law notwithstanding the strategic issues Russia would encounter crossing the Dneiper. To move to the west creates various issues and smirks of a colonial project the perception of which I think he is keen to avoid: The global south are watching. Plus, i think Russia's historic enemies still dream of the old Polish Lithuania commonwealth and would be at pains to get directly involved and inveigle Nato. Worrying times in the UK with the arrest of the journalist under the Terrorism Act. I suspect that the subjective media reporting of the ongoing conflicts, in part, is reflective of the consequences for balanced reporting. It seems we are supporting various protagonists on the pretext of upholding democracy at the same time as our own democracy is completely undermined by the same governments. No doubt Germans will now face new blanket repressive legislation, for the public good, after the recent attack.
The Ukrainian angle on Nordstream is nonsense as well the Germans know. As was pointed out by Ritter etc at the time the divers would needed to have had detailed knowledge of the pipes etc and access to high tech decompression chambers and experience of this type of work. The Norwegians are highly experienced in this area and would gain materially from a competitors pipeline network being sabotoged as would the US.
Yes - I remember Ritter and others ridiculing it.
Thanks for the great read Rob.
What do you think of John Healey's comments that 'the UK should be proud of British weapons being used to attack Russia'?
Clown world! People are meant to be happy about nazi fanatics trying to recreate the WW2 battle of Kursk and taking pot-shots at civilians and nuclear power stations.
Which made me think to check over the Rand report, on extending Russia, from 2019 again (https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html) if anyone wants to read it. and I noticed that a disinformation disclaimer had been added by the editor in 2022 to say black is white and white is black.
Incidentally I have been following the progress in Kursk from Southfront's maps which are fairly useful.
The RF continues to lose/cede territory and the UA continues to rush into them taking heavy losses.
With the bridges over the Seym river destroyed and Krasnooktyabrsky besieged it looks like the plan is to cut off the entire area below the river Seym.
Trapping it and perhaps similar to Ludendorf v Samsonov at Tannenberg in WW1 except using the river as part of the envelopment.
Well onto another week and lets see what happens.
I have no idea how providing weapons to attack Russia should generate pride. But this is meant to appeal to the Russophobia among Brits that has been promoted for decades. I've heard about the Rand report but I'll have a read - thanks. As for Kursk, the fog of war is really dense there - let's see what happens.
Thanks Rob, another excellent summary.
Rob, do you have any information about the theft, by US corporations, of black soil from Ukraine? I read somewhere that it was 14 million tons. It appears that if Russia takes over Ukraine and gives them the boot, they will have already stolen some of what they came for.
I know that the soil in Ukraine is very fertile but I haven't come across any reports of attempts to steal it - though it is possible of course. Good to hear from you Joy.
Thanks!