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richardstevenhack's avatar

Thanks for the shout out. I've been saying since April, 2022, that Russia will take all of Ukraine. There may or may not be "negotiations" - Ambassador Freeman said yesterday that wars usually end with negotiations, not "unconditional surrender" - but the end result will be the same: a Russian Military District in western Ukraine opposite those Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania. Russia may allow "Ukraine" to still "exist" with a fig leaf government of some sort, but that's not relevant to the necessary outcome for Russia's security which is that Russia has its air defenses as close to NATO as possible to intercept NATO missiles in boost phase rather than terminal phase over Moscow.

As an aside, I'm surprised Martyanov hasn't figured this out. But he knows western Ukrainians hate Russia, so he hates western Ukrainians and that colors his judgement. In reality, dealing with western Ukrainians won't be any harder than dealing with Chechens after the second Chechen war. Insurgencies are no longer possible in the "Drone Age" unless you are deep underground like Hamas, Hezbollah and the rest of the Axis of Resistance.

Speaking of which, everyone should watch that brilliantly produced 4 minute Hezbollah video of their Imad 4 redoubt buried deep in the mountains. Miles long tunnels with huge trucks loaded with missiles.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1824360691144278357

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Michael boyd's avatar

Im not convinced Russia will move beyond the four oblasts that have seceded from Ukraine. Putin seems at pains to act within the ambit of international law notwithstanding the strategic issues Russia would encounter crossing the Dneiper. To move to the west creates various issues and smirks of a colonial project the perception of which I think he is keen to avoid: The global south are watching. Plus, i think Russia's historic enemies still dream of the old Polish Lithuania commonwealth and would be at pains to get directly involved and inveigle Nato. Worrying times in the UK with the arrest of the journalist under the Terrorism Act. I suspect that the subjective media reporting of the ongoing conflicts, in part, is reflective of the consequences for balanced reporting. It seems we are supporting various protagonists on the pretext of upholding democracy at the same time as our own democracy is completely undermined by the same governments. No doubt Germans will now face new blanket repressive legislation, for the public good, after the recent attack.

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