Thanks, I went through a similar "transition" about the same time as you. I have pretty much given up talking to people about this, as in your case everyone thinks I've fallen prey to "conspiracy theories" -- especially since I am on the "wrong" side of other issues (notably Russia/Ukraine and covid) as well.
For the same reason I have decided that life is much less complicated if I don't talk about these issues with others. I guess I could share it on other websites, but I'm not really much of a regular commenter.
Well, this is a very clear reason for me to continue reading your content. I'm so happy we share this in common. Reason #1, that TPTB have lied about pretty much everything so far, so why believe this? Is for me an overwhelming reason to remain skeptical. I think that something strange is happening with certain regional anomalies (Lahaina anyone? Simultaneous wildfires in Canada last year, hurricanes hitting China but completely bypassing Taiwan), but I think it may have to do with high-level weather manipulation (HAARP? 🤷) rather than the professed globalist narrative.
I wouldn't mind betting that the TPTB have people out there setting fires to create the impression that AGW is happening NOW! Some people in Australia are getting alarmed.
I greatly enjoy your writing and commitment to good journalism so I must tell you that this provoked a WTF?! Reaction. I will certainly look at the references you provided and give you the benefit of the doubt but my doubts are substantial. New temperature records are being set as we write (www.nakedcapitalism.com%2F2024%2F05%2Flinks-5-29-2024.html), glaciers are melting- one large chunk in Antarctica is on the verge of breaking free which will immediately cause a noticeable increase sea level- massive clathrates (chunks of undersea frozen methane) are starting to thaw and boil to the surface (as a “greenhouse gas” 20x more potent than CO2- granted, it dissipates pretty rapidly becoming mostly CO2). Atmospheric CO2 is beyond 420ppm - a number cited ( by believers) as a “tipping point” -and seems likely to keep increasing with continued combustion of fossil fuels . I would much prefer a solar cooling cycle to a nuclear winter but for now, no bets. Keep the faith and cheers!
I'm so glad I got the WTF reaction. I know it's difficult to come to terms with the fact that reality as presented to us may be false. You will have your own journey through this and maybe you'll stick with a belief in global warming - but it is important to take the journey. I took that skeptical journey with my daughter, Sharon. Since I was doing more research, I gave up on global warming sooner than she did - but Sharon did so, eventually. Fortunately, my wife and my best friend are also climate Sceptics. Cheers!
The science on this was settled in the mid to late 1980s, and the predictions made then are largely being born out now. If we had acted then, we wouldn't be be in the mess we are in now. Now-a-days the climate deniers are, for the most part, not even wrong.
Science is never settled. The links I sent you demonstrate that. It's up to you if you want to look at them. I'm not trying to push my beliefs onto you. But it is simply not true that 1980s predictions are being largely born out now. If you studied it a little more you would realise that. Thanks for your contribution.
Science of a particular issue can be settled for all practical purposes (FAPP) in specific areas. No one launching a satellite worries about the opinions of the flat Earthers. FAPP Newtonian dynamics suffices, with an addition of post-Newtonian General Relativity in cases of high accuracy. That is not to say that there is nothing still to learn about satellite dynamics, or that there are not open topics of research, or even that G.R. might be overthrown some day, but the basic equations of satellite orbits are not going to change much, as they are well determined.
I was actively working on global warming / climate change in the 1980s, am still involved in it now and FAPP the basic science here was settled by 1990. That is not to say that nothing has been learned since, or that there is nothing still to learn about climate dynamics, or that there are not open topics of research. in that sense, these field is still more wide-open than satellite dynamics. But, you shouldn't expect a scientific revolution to come along and the scientific community to say "oh, sorry, greenhouse gasses don't matter" or somesuch. Not going to happen.
That is also not to say to there is a lot of unwarranted climate gloom and doom out there, or that some people are trying to use this crisis to forward their political agendas (the Greens in Germany shutting off nuclear power is an excellent example of that). But that's a topic for another day.
I don't believe that science can be 'settled' and remain scientific. I am not talking about the science of a particular issues FAPP - I'm talking about The Science. Yes we all know that aspects of Newtonian physics are still valid - and we can expect our activities to be circumscribed by gravity. So maybe FAPP we don't need to question gravity though we may come to discover new things about it. But Newtonian physics generally was never settled even though many thought it was for many years. So I can't go along with you on that. If, as you say, there is still scope for learning then is it not possible that the science will change? (BTW, my background is in engineering, the social sciences and the philosophy of science: I am not a scientist). I mentioned Ben Davidson, for example (you have a link), who has a theory called 'climate forcing'. I have no idea whether his theory is valid but it is a theory capable of being tested as far as I am aware. I know there have been many other scientific developments in recent years, in relation to the characteristics of CO2 for example. Such things are 'observations' that may fit with a new theory that may overcome the anomalies of previous theories - just as Einstein did for Newton. You accept that GR could be overthrown one day so does it not follow that the science of GR is not settled? I think the same can be said for climate science. My research has taken me into areas that you may not have covered and vice versa but it has convinced me that AGW is not happening. If your research has convinced you otherwise then fair enough - I don't have a problem with that. But I do have a problem with so called settled science - which to me smacks of dogma. I have a book on PDF called 'Unsettled' by Steve Koonin which I haven't read yet. I can't share it on here otherwise I would. It shows that The Science relating to climate is by no means settled. I am not certain that the earth is cooling - as I have said. Only time will tell. I agree that the alarmist wing of the AGW movement is unwarranted but the pursuit of net zero is damaging the economies of the world - so this is no mere academic debate. Cheers.
You mention Kosovo. One of the routes for pro Scottish Independence was the Kosovo example. But that was disapplied by British unionism to Scotland whilst supporting Kosovo. One of the things i have noticed is that the MSM in the UK, at least, has three bogeymen which appear to challenge the hegemon and its satellites: Russians, Pro Palestinians and pro Independence Scots. i have to say i have never liked the phrase Independence and have always preferred secession. Anyway, the point im trying to make is that in the case of a Palestinian State and Scottish independence any support for either is met with claims of Antisemitism on the one hand or anti English/British on the other. Both examples are put in a negative construct rather than a positive construct of the right to self determination. The Russian example is exactly the same but for different reasons but the main argument from the West being that Russia doesn't have the right to protect the right of fellow Russians to self determination either. What has been lost in the Ukraine war is the correct analysis, that this is fundamentally a civil war between two opposed cultural, ethnic and linguistic sides in Ukraine where one group wants the right to self determine their future and the other wishes to oppress that right.
Yes. I'm in the Swinney and Cosy Slippers Pete Wishart heartlands of rural Perthshire. Its a bastion of insurrectionism and revolt...accept on a Sunday.
I think you may have told me already. We camped in Kinloch Rannoch a few years ago and its was very midgy. Amazing countryside though. We took a train from Rannoch Moor Station to Fort William - which was brilliant. We'll be up in the highlands sometime this summer. I may even have to take a week off.
Interesting blog. I usually always question the narrative to find the truth but have always accepted the global warming theory without question. Some people may not agree with you but at least you are prompting us to make further enquiry.
Funny how when people in other fields do a little study on the "climate change" conjecture they conclude nothing much is happening.
I was in the meteorology/atmospheric science/environmental science business in the 1970's when the scientific consensus was that we were about to enter another ice age. My time in academia convinced me that most of these "scientists" would make good livings as used car salesmen.
Anyone still pushing the line that there is a problem with the little extra CO2 present is just a grifter or an outright crook. What people think of as a "normal" climate has only been such for about 11,000 years, when the last ice age ended and we sure didn't have a hand in that.
For an easy to understand exposition of many of these non issues I recommend www.wattsupwiththat.com
Older people like me still remember when MSM used to predict ~20+ years or so ago how Maldives islands would be underwater in a few years because melting polar caps would rise the water level so much... nope, they are still there, their tourism going strong as ever, somehow that narrative has been memory holed among others that were proven false.
I used to sing a song called 'somewhere on sea' when I was in a socialist choir. But is hasn't happened. The end of snow didn't happen either and politicians, such as Obama, if memory serves me well, are buying properties by the sea FFS - taking to P or what. It is all BS and I'm annoyed that I was taken in by it for so long.
ist providing monthly Update of lower tropospehre Temperatures since 1979. We see a global warming of 0,15 ° C per decade.
But this does not mean that it is man-made (some joke that it is Mann-made, after the NASA scientist Mann), but rather a part of a Natural cycle, which May Change because of the sun cycle.
The world ist also getting greener and the Sahel Zone ist shrinking because of more warmth and CO2.
But we cannot pull us out of Global Warming like Baron von Münchhausen, who pulled himself out of a swamp by his own hair.
I googled that Rob and was struck by the sentence "... a paper claiming greater medieval warmth was quickly dismissed by scientists ...", which prompted me to think, ' does the scientific method operate in that way?'. The word 'scientists' is as useful to outlets like go ogle as 'un-named' officials is to the propaganda of our M$M.
The quality of everyday propaganda ain't what it used to be. Or maybe it is and we are just getting smarter. Keep up the good work.
They are trying their best to re-write history with lots of cunning tricks such as placing thermometers in the middle of cities where it is much warmer. But this also happened by accident as villages grew into towns and towns grew into cities. Climate the Movie (Rumble) covers this. It's a good place to start in debunkong AGW.
Thanks, I went through a similar "transition" about the same time as you. I have pretty much given up talking to people about this, as in your case everyone thinks I've fallen prey to "conspiracy theories" -- especially since I am on the "wrong" side of other issues (notably Russia/Ukraine and covid) as well.
So glad that I have managed to get that point across. Please share my post. Thank you.
I wish I could share your post with others . . .
I'm not sure why you can't?
For the same reason I have decided that life is much less complicated if I don't talk about these issues with others. I guess I could share it on other websites, but I'm not really much of a regular commenter.
Nee problem - as we say in Scotland. - Cheers.
Well, this is a very clear reason for me to continue reading your content. I'm so happy we share this in common. Reason #1, that TPTB have lied about pretty much everything so far, so why believe this? Is for me an overwhelming reason to remain skeptical. I think that something strange is happening with certain regional anomalies (Lahaina anyone? Simultaneous wildfires in Canada last year, hurricanes hitting China but completely bypassing Taiwan), but I think it may have to do with high-level weather manipulation (HAARP? 🤷) rather than the professed globalist narrative.
I wouldn't mind betting that the TPTB have people out there setting fires to create the impression that AGW is happening NOW! Some people in Australia are getting alarmed.
I greatly enjoy your writing and commitment to good journalism so I must tell you that this provoked a WTF?! Reaction. I will certainly look at the references you provided and give you the benefit of the doubt but my doubts are substantial. New temperature records are being set as we write (www.nakedcapitalism.com%2F2024%2F05%2Flinks-5-29-2024.html), glaciers are melting- one large chunk in Antarctica is on the verge of breaking free which will immediately cause a noticeable increase sea level- massive clathrates (chunks of undersea frozen methane) are starting to thaw and boil to the surface (as a “greenhouse gas” 20x more potent than CO2- granted, it dissipates pretty rapidly becoming mostly CO2). Atmospheric CO2 is beyond 420ppm - a number cited ( by believers) as a “tipping point” -and seems likely to keep increasing with continued combustion of fossil fuels . I would much prefer a solar cooling cycle to a nuclear winter but for now, no bets. Keep the faith and cheers!
I'm so glad I got the WTF reaction. I know it's difficult to come to terms with the fact that reality as presented to us may be false. You will have your own journey through this and maybe you'll stick with a belief in global warming - but it is important to take the journey. I took that skeptical journey with my daughter, Sharon. Since I was doing more research, I gave up on global warming sooner than she did - but Sharon did so, eventually. Fortunately, my wife and my best friend are also climate Sceptics. Cheers!
Nature doesn't care about your beliefs.
The science on this was settled in the mid to late 1980s, and the predictions made then are largely being born out now. If we had acted then, we wouldn't be be in the mess we are in now. Now-a-days the climate deniers are, for the most part, not even wrong.
Science is never settled. The links I sent you demonstrate that. It's up to you if you want to look at them. I'm not trying to push my beliefs onto you. But it is simply not true that 1980s predictions are being largely born out now. If you studied it a little more you would realise that. Thanks for your contribution.
Science of a particular issue can be settled for all practical purposes (FAPP) in specific areas. No one launching a satellite worries about the opinions of the flat Earthers. FAPP Newtonian dynamics suffices, with an addition of post-Newtonian General Relativity in cases of high accuracy. That is not to say that there is nothing still to learn about satellite dynamics, or that there are not open topics of research, or even that G.R. might be overthrown some day, but the basic equations of satellite orbits are not going to change much, as they are well determined.
I was actively working on global warming / climate change in the 1980s, am still involved in it now and FAPP the basic science here was settled by 1990. That is not to say that nothing has been learned since, or that there is nothing still to learn about climate dynamics, or that there are not open topics of research. in that sense, these field is still more wide-open than satellite dynamics. But, you shouldn't expect a scientific revolution to come along and the scientific community to say "oh, sorry, greenhouse gasses don't matter" or somesuch. Not going to happen.
That is also not to say to there is a lot of unwarranted climate gloom and doom out there, or that some people are trying to use this crisis to forward their political agendas (the Greens in Germany shutting off nuclear power is an excellent example of that). But that's a topic for another day.
I don't believe that science can be 'settled' and remain scientific. I am not talking about the science of a particular issues FAPP - I'm talking about The Science. Yes we all know that aspects of Newtonian physics are still valid - and we can expect our activities to be circumscribed by gravity. So maybe FAPP we don't need to question gravity though we may come to discover new things about it. But Newtonian physics generally was never settled even though many thought it was for many years. So I can't go along with you on that. If, as you say, there is still scope for learning then is it not possible that the science will change? (BTW, my background is in engineering, the social sciences and the philosophy of science: I am not a scientist). I mentioned Ben Davidson, for example (you have a link), who has a theory called 'climate forcing'. I have no idea whether his theory is valid but it is a theory capable of being tested as far as I am aware. I know there have been many other scientific developments in recent years, in relation to the characteristics of CO2 for example. Such things are 'observations' that may fit with a new theory that may overcome the anomalies of previous theories - just as Einstein did for Newton. You accept that GR could be overthrown one day so does it not follow that the science of GR is not settled? I think the same can be said for climate science. My research has taken me into areas that you may not have covered and vice versa but it has convinced me that AGW is not happening. If your research has convinced you otherwise then fair enough - I don't have a problem with that. But I do have a problem with so called settled science - which to me smacks of dogma. I have a book on PDF called 'Unsettled' by Steve Koonin which I haven't read yet. I can't share it on here otherwise I would. It shows that The Science relating to climate is by no means settled. I am not certain that the earth is cooling - as I have said. Only time will tell. I agree that the alarmist wing of the AGW movement is unwarranted but the pursuit of net zero is damaging the economies of the world - so this is no mere academic debate. Cheers.
You mention Kosovo. One of the routes for pro Scottish Independence was the Kosovo example. But that was disapplied by British unionism to Scotland whilst supporting Kosovo. One of the things i have noticed is that the MSM in the UK, at least, has three bogeymen which appear to challenge the hegemon and its satellites: Russians, Pro Palestinians and pro Independence Scots. i have to say i have never liked the phrase Independence and have always preferred secession. Anyway, the point im trying to make is that in the case of a Palestinian State and Scottish independence any support for either is met with claims of Antisemitism on the one hand or anti English/British on the other. Both examples are put in a negative construct rather than a positive construct of the right to self determination. The Russian example is exactly the same but for different reasons but the main argument from the West being that Russia doesn't have the right to protect the right of fellow Russians to self determination either. What has been lost in the Ukraine war is the correct analysis, that this is fundamentally a civil war between two opposed cultural, ethnic and linguistic sides in Ukraine where one group wants the right to self determine their future and the other wishes to oppress that right.
Yes - I think we have to keep reminding ourselves that this is a civil war. Are you Scottish by any chance?
Yes. I'm in the Swinney and Cosy Slippers Pete Wishart heartlands of rural Perthshire. Its a bastion of insurrectionism and revolt...accept on a Sunday.
I think you may have told me already. We camped in Kinloch Rannoch a few years ago and its was very midgy. Amazing countryside though. We took a train from Rannoch Moor Station to Fort William - which was brilliant. We'll be up in the highlands sometime this summer. I may even have to take a week off.
Also consider Judith Curry's Climate Etc blog.
Interesting blog. I usually always question the narrative to find the truth but have always accepted the global warming theory without question. Some people may not agree with you but at least you are prompting us to make further enquiry.
That's the whole point 'prompting further enquiry'.
I've been fairly agnostic on this topic, but I found Patrick Moore highly convincing.
Funny how when people in other fields do a little study on the "climate change" conjecture they conclude nothing much is happening.
I was in the meteorology/atmospheric science/environmental science business in the 1970's when the scientific consensus was that we were about to enter another ice age. My time in academia convinced me that most of these "scientists" would make good livings as used car salesmen.
Anyone still pushing the line that there is a problem with the little extra CO2 present is just a grifter or an outright crook. What people think of as a "normal" climate has only been such for about 11,000 years, when the last ice age ended and we sure didn't have a hand in that.
For an easy to understand exposition of many of these non issues I recommend www.wattsupwiththat.com
Thanks for the link.
Older people like me still remember when MSM used to predict ~20+ years or so ago how Maldives islands would be underwater in a few years because melting polar caps would rise the water level so much... nope, they are still there, their tourism going strong as ever, somehow that narrative has been memory holed among others that were proven false.
I used to sing a song called 'somewhere on sea' when I was in a socialist choir. But is hasn't happened. The end of snow didn't happen either and politicians, such as Obama, if memory serves me well, are buying properties by the sea FFS - taking to P or what. It is all BS and I'm annoyed that I was taken in by it for so long.
Thank you Rob, I remain to be convinced but I will try to find time to check out some of the links.
The climate sceptic https://www.drroyspencer.com/
ist providing monthly Update of lower tropospehre Temperatures since 1979. We see a global warming of 0,15 ° C per decade.
But this does not mean that it is man-made (some joke that it is Mann-made, after the NASA scientist Mann), but rather a part of a Natural cycle, which May Change because of the sun cycle.
The world ist also getting greener and the Sahel Zone ist shrinking because of more warmth and CO2.
But we cannot pull us out of Global Warming like Baron von Münchhausen, who pulled himself out of a swamp by his own hair.
I should have mentioned the famous Mann 'hockey stick'.
I googled that Rob and was struck by the sentence "... a paper claiming greater medieval warmth was quickly dismissed by scientists ...", which prompted me to think, ' does the scientific method operate in that way?'. The word 'scientists' is as useful to outlets like go ogle as 'un-named' officials is to the propaganda of our M$M.
The quality of everyday propaganda ain't what it used to be. Or maybe it is and we are just getting smarter. Keep up the good work.
They are trying their best to re-write history with lots of cunning tricks such as placing thermometers in the middle of cities where it is much warmer. But this also happened by accident as villages grew into towns and towns grew into cities. Climate the Movie (Rumble) covers this. It's a good place to start in debunkong AGW.
Cheers for that.
Just watched the movie. Brilliant! Thanks again.
Well said
Another useful site dealing with AGW and the fallout of those beliefs is the Jonova blog
Thanks for having the courage to go against the narrative. I am willing to bet that 100% of people who believe in GW are vaxed and boosted.
Ironically, 'Nee problem' is also perfect German.