The above cartoon provides a good illustration of the global situation we all face; a world superpower is involved in funding two wars that will stretch its already straining resources while placing us all at risk of a third world war1. This week has obviously been dominated by the Palestine - Israel conflict which will inevitably impact on the conflict in Ukraine. I will try not to get too distracted by this (which will be difficult given the human tragedy we are witnessing) but will need to include some discussion of the conflict as it relates to Ukraine. Many people’s views of the conflict will have been shaped a long time ago and feelings will be running high on both sides. There will not be a generous space for neutrals in many places.
I cannot understand why Israel was so unprepared for the Hamas attacks but its reaction and that of the US will not be beneficial to them in the long run, unless this is part of some devious hidden plan from which they will profit.
On the fronts, the last gasps of the Ukrainian failed offensive can be heard as the Russians take up offensive action of their own. The obstacles facing the Russians, especially in Avdeevka, are formidable (see below). But it appears that Russian strength is growing while that of its opponent continues to decline.
Zelensky in Odessa
Ukrainian Telegram Channel, Legitimniy is speculating that Z’s visit to Odessa on the 14th October was a sign that the oblast will be increasing its defences in anticipation of a Russian invasion, including an anticipated airborne landing of troops. It is claimed that the elites of Odessa are not fully cooperating with the Kiev regime and that the SBU is rampant in the oblast on the look out for dissenters.
Military Equipment Shortages Ukraine
The UK’s Telegraph is reporting a ‘catastrophic’ shortage of shells for Britain’s howitzers which the Ukrainians can fire no more than once a day in consequence. They are even resorting to using World War Two era field guns, for which they have adequate supplies of ammunition.
The Ramstein group of 54 countries that are supplying military materiel to Ukraine has advised Z that supplies of air defence missiles will be reduced in future in order to accommodate the needs of Israeli defences. Efforts to secure priority for the Ukraine war have failed and Z has been asked to economise - according to a Ukrainian Telegram Channel. This is no surprise given the strength and influence exerted by the Israeli lobby in the US. It is alarming that Israel is already calling for military assistance ($10 billions) from the US - which shows that it was ill prepared (financially) to go to war. But the US will not be able to sustain both Israel and Ukraine militarily, according to Zero Hedge - though Janet Yellen says it can.
Israel is holding large quantities of US owned 155mm ammunition, some of which has been sent to Ukraine. The Israelis must ask for permission to use these stockpiles which I imagine they will be doing - so I doubt whether much of this will go to Ukraine. In addition, 155mm shells (probably cluster shells) that were due to be sent by the US to Ukraine will now be sent to Israel. Both Israel and the West will be aware that Hamas has support from other countries in the region; including Iran, Iraq, Jordon and Pakistan. So, if fighters from other countries join the fray, thereby lengthening the war, Israel will make more demands of mother pig’s teat, inevitably depriving its rival of sustenance. Israel has not donated any of its own military materiel to Ukraine btw. Some Ukrainian Telegram Channels are expressing concerns that Ukraine is being sidelined by the middle east to which many Western journalists have now emigrated. legitimniy is reporting a shortage of intelligence data as some Western resources are being diverted to Israel.
The Pentagon has appointed someone to monitor arms deliveries to Ukraine, which may mean that more supplies will actually find their way to the fronts. The US has decided to close the stable door at last, even though the horse bolted long, long ago.
A recent poll suggests that the 71% of Ukrainians believe that the West should provide them with free aid without condition because they are dying to preserve Western values. How sad is that! These people have swallowed the Western propaganda whole and sooner or later it will stick in their throats. According to a recent survey, many Ukrainians don’t even know that Mariupol is now Russian. But maybe we shouldn’t be too surprised at their ignorance given the ignorance of our own populations.
Russian Speakers in Ukraine
The figures quoted in the above map appear to show a Ukraine divided between east and west on the basis of language. The far West has long been non-Russian so the low 5% figure is understandable. But the centre - yellow -section runs along the Dnieper and slices Kiev in two (see Map). The figures quoted here may or may not be accurate but other figures suggest that Kiev may have more Russian speakers than is being admitted here. A recent study of language use by pre-school children in Kiev showed that only 15% of kindergarten children used Ukrainian rather than Russian in their daily discourse with each other and 20% do not speak Ukrainian at all.
If the use of a common language is considered to be something that indicates national or cultural allegiances then it is possible, at least, that the Ukrainian people, if asked, would vote for a boundary between eastern and western Ukraine based on the above language map.
Jailed For Singing?
I’ve sung lots of ‘protest songs’ over the years and have performed them at various events - on my own or as part of a choir. So it bothers me when someone is jailed for being in a choir. Such a fate has apparently befallen the poet/bard Ekaterina Ershova who used to sing in the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra choir in Kiev. For years, Ekaterina (beautiful name) has been quite vociferous in defending the monastery and The Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), which has offended Z and co. She has now disappeared - and some fear she has been arrested by the SBU - according to Slavyangrad. Yes, I know she was probably not jailed for singing in the choir; there must be more to it than that. If anyone knows more it would be good to hear. I hope she will be OK. On the 19th October, the Ukraine parliament passed the first reading of a bill that will outlaw the UOC she fought to preserve.
Meanwhile in Kirovograd, a 22 year old woman was sentenced to life imprisonment for allegedly directing Russian missiles onto targets in Ukraine. The woman was unrepentant and said that she would continue the struggle if she became part of a prisoner exchange.
Ukraine Terror Attacks (i.e. attacks designed to kill civilians)
Kursk
At night on the 14th October, the south western region of Kursk was attacked by 18 drones and multiple artillery strikes. All the drones were shot down but falling debris caused some damage. There were no casualties, according to RT. Earlier the same day, the Glushkovsky district in Kursk Region was shelled, leaving villages without power and causing a fire that was promptly extinguished, according to the governor. Hours later, the village of Tyotkino in the same district was targeted again, causing damage to residential houses and a gas pipe. On the 15th, more than a dozen drones were shot down before they could cause damage.
Belgorod
On the 18th October, Ukrainian artillery also attacked the villages of Novaya Tavolzhanka and Arkhangelskoye where a power line was destroyed.
DPR
This week, there has been another 24 hour period when the Ukrainians were so preoccupied with the Russian attacks on Avdeevka that they didn’t get around to shelling Donetsk. But on the 16th October, a ten year old boy was killed and two others were wounded from Ukrainian artillery fire. On the 17th, the Ukrainians shelled the Kievskiy and Kuibyshev districts where residential apartment buildings were hit - but no casualties were been reported. On the 19th Oct, 127 artillery rounds were shot into the DPR but only one civilian was injured.
Kherson
On the 18th October, the district hospital in Aleshki and an outpatient clinic in the village of Novaya Mayachka, were both attacked. Eight ambulances in the hospital were completely burned out and an outpatient clinic in the village was destroyed. But there were no casualties.
The Sea War
US Drone Diverted
On October 15th, A Russian Su27 jet diverted one of the above surveillance drones which was flying over the Black Sea too close to Russian air space - according to Tass
The Air War
15th/16th October Overnight
A large air attack was reported by Ukrainian Telegram Channels such as legitimniy on October 16th. Attacks on airfields were reported along with large flights of Geranium drones. According to the Two Majors:
During the night, the RF Armed Forces carried out UAV and rocket attacks on enemy facilities in Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk (DPR, occupied by the AFU, Dnepropetrovsk, Mirgorod [airfield] in the Poltava region, Kropivnitsk in the Kirovograd region, Cherkassy in the Cherkassy region, Starokonstantinov [airfield] in the Khmelnitsky region and Zaporozhye region.
Ozernoye airfield in Zhytomyr Oblast was also attacked and further east both Kiev and Kharkov suffered an onslaught of Geranium drones overnight.
16th/17th October Overnight
According to the the Two Majors:
At night, Geranium UAVs hit enemy facilities in Odessa region. Explosions were recorded in Odessa, the UAVs flew towards the Belgorod-Dnestrovsky district. Rocket attacks were made in the area of Voznesensk in Nikolayev region and Slavyansk (part of the DPR occupied by the AFU). On the Kherson front, a FAB-1500 hit an enemy temporary deployment point near Berislav.
18th/19th October Overnight
In the morning, the Russians attacked southern Kharkov using Iskander missiles and in the evening the Geraniums were out in force, according to Slavyangrad:
Geraniums are reported to the north in the Chernigov region, heading towards Kiev, as well as to the south in the Kherson region, in the direction of Nikolaev.
Two ammunition depots were destroyed in Nikolaev, along with supply warehouses, according to Slavyangrad, while Sumy, Kharkov, Kherson and Zaporizhzhe regions also suffered missile/drone attacks. The Pavlograd chemical plant in Dnipro was hit by two of the Russian three missiles launched at it, according to Rybar.
Ukraine Missile/Drone Attacks
Sochi
Six drones were destroyed by Russian air defences over the sea and not very far from Sochi. No damage was inflicted and there were no casualties. This is the first attack towards Sochi for more than a week. The drones appear to have been directed at Sochi International Airport.
Berdyansk Air Field
The airport at Berdyansk was attacked on the 17th October causing many losses in men and materiel. Some believe that ATACMs were used. An ammunition dump and several helicopters were damaged to varying degrees, according to Slavyangrad. However, a source close to Andrei Martyanov claims that HIMARS were used, not ATACMs and that they were all shot down causing only minor damage (according to Indy MoA - 50 Oct 17th).
Kursk
On the morning of October 18th a number of ‘aircraft like’ drones were shot down over Kursk region. Six devices were intercepted by air defence crews, and four more were landed by electronic warfare equipment. The debris of one of the drones fell on a school building: the facade and glazing received minor damage. There were no injuries and the school continues to operate as normal.
Belgorod
Overnight on the 14th/15th October, two drones were shot down over Belgorod which was attacked later on the 15th when more than a dozen of the assailants were destroyed. And on the 16th, according to the Two Majors:
In the Belgorod region, the outskirts of two villages, Demidovka and Grafovka, in the Krasnoyaruzhny district came under AFU fire…the air defence system shot down two aerial targets on the approach to the city. On the morning of October 18th a number of ‘aircraft like’ drones were shot down over the region. Russian anti-aircraft gunners intercepted six devices in the Yakovlevsky urban district. According to preliminary data, there was no destruction nor casualties.
Crimea
On the evening of the 17th October, 8 drones were shot down by air defence forces or suppressed by electronic warfare on their approach to Crimea.
On the morning of October 18th a number of ‘aircraft like’ drones were shot down over Crimea. According to Rybar
Two drones in the period 02.46 - 3.08 were destroyed 50-80 km west of Saki by MiG-29 fighters, and another one was destroyed over Yevpatoria by the crew of the S-300 air defense system of the 31st Air Force and Air Defense Division.
West of Cape Tarkhankut two unmanned reconnaissance boats were also destroyed.
Later on the 18th October, the Ukrainians launched two Grom-2 missiles at Sevastopol which were destroyed by air defences and apparently fell to ground without causing damage. Meanwhile at Kara Koba a converted S-200 missile was intercepted
Rostov
Early on the 19th October, two modified S-200 missiles heading for an airport near Rostov were shot down before they could cause damage.
The Ground War
Staggering Losses
Cyberspec News has been calculating Ukraine’s equipment losses for a while. They estimate that between July 11th and October 10th the Ukrainians lost: 180 Tanks; 222 Artillery guns + MLRS; 491 Armored vehicles; 9 aircraft. That’s a lot to lose in just three months.
On the 17th October Ukrainian casualties were 1175 - which is the highest I’ve seen for some time.
Russian MoD Reports
w/e 13th October: Casualties: 5300 killed and wounded (757 per day); equipment losses = 299.
w/e 20th October: Casualties: 5830 killed and wounded (832 per day); equipment losses = 387 (includes 48 boats)
Russian Offensive Action
As the Ukrainian offensive crumbles into nothingness the Russians appear to be taking the offensive all across the fronts. This is not one of those ‘big arrow’ offensives that many are salivating after but a general shift from defensive to offensive action. Weeb provides a summary here.
The Fronts
Kupyansk
Reports of fighting in this direction have been sparse this week but the Russians have continued to advance slowly towards Sinkovka, Makeyevka and Torskoye. On the 18th of October, the Russian MoD reported that its forces repelled 13 Ukrainian counter-attacks in this direction.
Avdeevka
The fortifications at Avdeevka, built over a nine year period, are among the most formidable in Ukraine, according to the Two Majors (this link shows some footage):
all important strategic positions were poured into reinforced concrete, a whole network of fortifications was dug into the ground, a significant part of them are united by passages, trenches, there are underground tunnels, these allow you to survive even heavy shelling, the visible above-ground parts of the dugouts are welded anti-cumulative grilles for protection against anti-tank missiles.
I would imagine that the Russians will try to cut the fortress off from supplies rather than attacking it head on. By the 15th October, the Russians managed to bring all supply routes to the settlement under fire control, according to Rybar. ‘It will fall quicker than Bakhmut’ so Armchair Warrior believes. The Ukrainians, who don’t want to give this city up, have reinforced the area considerably but in doing so they have left themselves with insufficient resources to launch meaningful offensive actions elsewhere during the winter. You can find a more detailed Sitrep on Avdeevka here.
On the 19th October at around 6.00 am Moscow time, the Russians began the second stage of a large scale offensive designed to encircle the city. According to a Russian source close to the action and quoted by Slavyangrad:
Starting at 6 AM Moscow time, we have launched powerful strikes targeting the enemy's military infrastructure in this direction. We are destroying firing positions, concentrations of enemy armored vehicles, fortifications, depots (ammunition and fuel and lubricants). Various types of weapons are in action, including heavy artillery of different calibers, multiple launch rocket systems (various modifications), and aviation (assault, tactical, and army aircraft).
Rabotino-Verbove-Kopani
Having failed to achieve significant gains in and around Rabotino-Verbove, the Ukrainian have shifted their attacks towards Kopani. Unfortunately, for them their attacks in this latter direction were also failures. Having gained some ground on the 14th October, Russian artillery forced them back to their starting positions. On the 16th October, the Ukrainians shifted the attack back to Verbove but with no greater success. According to the Military Chronicle:
the enemy attacked Verbovoye yesterday with combined forces with armored vehicles of the 71st, 82nd and 118th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Leopard tanks, Marder infantry fighting vehicles and up to 6 companies of paratroopers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine took part in the assault. In the midst of the attack, it began to rain, and our artillery finished off the enemy's offensive potential and he retreated.
Kherson
The build up of Ukrainian forces on the islands in the Dnieper have continued this week. On the 14th October, the Ukrainians attempted to reinforce the islands and have stepped up artillery strikes on Russian positions opposite them. Russian artillery quickly went to work on the new arrivals. But the build up has continued in preparation for a crossing of the Dnieper. On the 17th/18th October small Ukrainian units advanced along the railway line from the Antonovsky bridge to the villages of Poyma and Pishchanovka, 6 kilometres to the east on the left bank of the Dnieper. They were preparing the way for others to follow. Dima provides a sitrep here (first 5 minutes). Please note that the settlements Dima labels cities are described by other sources as villages. On the 18th October, the Russians pushed the Ukrainians back across the Dnieper to the right bank. On the 19th another Ukrainian group managed to capture part of the village of Krynki as they attempt to create a bridgehead for offensive action on the left bank.
The Economic War
One Belt and One Road Forum - Beijing - 17th/18th October
I could have included discussion of this under The Emerging Multi-Polar World Order because this Forum is certainly part of that but it is also part of the economic war. China’s ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative seeks to build global infrastructure and energy networks to connect Asia, Africa and Europe through land and sea routes. Countries in the global South require economic sovereignty to take part, so the Forum will probably discuss Western influence (interference) which gets in the way of this. 150 countries are involved and many will have representative at the Forum. Vladimir Putin will represent Russia. It is thought that Putin will meet with Xi at some point to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East. This is the Forum’s third meeting. You can read more about it here.
Putin was greeted with thunderous applause when he came on stage to give his speech. He said that Russia and China both strive for long-term economic progress and social well-being, based on mutually beneficial cooperation in the world. The ‘Belt and Road’ initiative is part of this and Putin praised Chinese efforts in this regard - according to Sputnik.
Moldova - What a Waste of Apples
The Moldavan government will not allow export of apples to Russia. In consequence, piles of apples are being left to rot and farmers are uprooting apple orchards. What a waste.
China-Russia Grain Deal
China and Russia have signed the largest grain supply contract in their history, valued at 2.5 trillion roubles. Under the 12-year agreement, Russia will provide China with 70 million tonnes of grain, legumes, and oilseed cargoes.
World Debt Crisis
Reuters is reporting that indebtedness among some countries, such as the US, the UK and Italy could trigger a global financial crisis. State borrowing is reaching staggering levels with the US increasing its debt by $500 billion in just 20 days (to reach $33.5 trillions). World debt has increased by $10 trillions in the first half of this year to reach $307 trillions. 80% of this debt is among rich countries. RT will tell you more here.
World Politics
Putin Speaks Out on Gaza
Vladimir Putin has expressed his views on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. He is clearly trying to be balanced and neutral and acknowledged that Israel has been subjected to a ‘brutal attack’. But he also said that the conflict between the two can be resolved only through the creation of an independent Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital. He also condemned Israeli proposals for a ground attack on Gaza, which would cause an unacceptable level of civilian casualties. Russian deputy foreign minister, Mikhail Bogdanov, said that the forced evacuation of civilians from Gaza would be a violation of human rights. Russia has tried and failed to get the UN Security Council to call for an immediate ceasefire and has suggested that the conflict can be resolved only through peaceful means. This has been as wake up call for Israel and the West just as the Tet Offensive was for the US back in 1968. After Tet, it became clear that the US could not win in Vietnam - and Hamas’s attacks could persuade the West that Israel cannot survive without a two state settlement in Palestine (that’s the optimistic view). The emerging multi-polar world order will ensure that non-Western proposals for ending conflict in the region will be heard. This is the big difference between now and ten or twenty years ago. The West can no longer pursue policies with impunity (though it will keep trying): now it has to acknowledge and accommodate the views and opinions of BRICS countries and the RoW.
On October 17th, following the destruction of a hospital in Gaza, allegedly carried out by the Israelis and killing 500-800 civilians, the divisions within societies and between societies over the Palestinian issue became evident. In many Muslim countries, and some Western countries, anger spilled over onto the streets and outside Israeli embassies. Some accused the Palestinians of killing their own people but even pro-Western news organisations such as MSNBC and the BBC had to admit that they could not have carried out the hospital attack. But Israel is blaming Islamic Jihad, rather than Hamas, according to Tass. Others believe that this was an accident caused by the misfiring of a Hamas missile. Sleepy Joe Biden inflamed the situation by immediately accepting Israel’s claims. Whatever the truth of the matter, it is what people believe or choose to believe that counts - and those who disapprove of Israel will choose to believe that it was responsible. Russia will raise the matter at the UN General Assembly. The predictable escalatory US response was to send warships into the Mediterranean in response to which Putin allegedly said: "American aircraft carriers stationed in the Mediterranean Sea are within the range of Russian airborne hypersonic missiles in the Black Sea’’.
Poland
Elections were held in Poland this week and most people have voted for the Law and Justice party and the Civic Coalition party. According to Slavyangrad:
The ruling conservative party (PiS) headed by Jaroslaw Kaczynski has won the parliamentary elections in Poland. It won 35.38% of the vote. However, it was followed by three opposition alliances - Civic Platform, Third Way and the Left - which together win the majority of seats in the Sejm. This means that the opposition parties will be able to reject the ruling PiS candidate for prime minister and nominate their own candidate.
This means that Donald Tusk (Pro-European, neo liberal globalist), whose Civic Platform party lost its majority, could become Prime Minister and nothing much will change.
The Emerging Multi-Polar World Order
Human Coexistence
Karl Sanchez, writing for karlof1’s Geopolitical Gymnasium, has some interesting things to say about human coexistence that acknowledges the emergence of a global majority of nations (the RoW) which have learned from the West’s imperialist past and have abandoned all intolerances apart from intolerance itself. The global majority, he says, ‘has voiced its approval for tolerance and peace. Only the minority remains’. And we all know who they are. Many are hopeful that BRICS and the ethos that underpins it can prevail to create a new world order but none can be certain that it will happen.
British historian Arnold Toynbee once said: ‘civilizations die from suicide not by murder’. I think he means that civilizations die from their own hand rather than suggesting that they deliberately try to kill themselves. The emerging Multi-Polar World Order will not kill the West and has no reason to do so but the West’s recent actions serve only to undermine itself. This is true of, among other things, NATO expansion, the myth of global warming, globalism, Wokism, the Ukraine war, sanctions against Russia and now Israel-Palestine where the West’s response to the conflict has managed to unite previously fragmented Arab and Muslim groups. One reason for this, perhaps, has to do with Western leaders losing their grasp on reality along with their sense of hubris, their incompetence, their arrogance and the ideological dysfunction that haunts them. But the West is also suffering from a crisis of morality since societies cannot function without a set of values that are shared by most citizens. Religion achieved this for most people, most of the time - to the extent that societies did not fall apart due to a crisis of values. But I’m not saying that religion did this perfectly.
Writing in the 1940’s, Toynbee also said:
Of the twenty-two civilizations that have appeared in history, nineteen of them collapsed when they reached the moral state the United States is in now.
Since Toynebee wrote this, morality in the West has divided people quite substantially (especially following the advent of Wokeness) and has divided rulers from the people even more.
Fredrich Nietzsche warned us of such moral decadence following the ‘death of God’2 in the 19th century and Peter Turchin3 has theorized quite recently about the imminent collapse of the US empire.
On the 18th October, b writing on the MoA, cited an article from the Carnegie Council, a body that discusses ethics in International Affairs. It is realistic about the current situation in promoting what it calls ‘value neutral ethics in International Relations’.4 It believes that no country should impose its values on other countries and that the Uni-Polar, rules based order must inevitable give way to the Emerging Multi-Polar World Order (MPWO). But the emergence of the MPWO is no longer a theoretical or a moral issue; it is a growing reality in the state of becoming.
We live in historic times.
That’s it for this week. Many thanks for you views, likes, subscriptions and kind comments.
Three wars if you include Syria, which is close by. The whole region could explode.
The Death of God - i.e. the collapse of Christianity - is lamented by Nietzsche, not celebrated (as some believe), because he was concerned that a replacement value system would be hard to find. He discusses this first of all in The Gay Science - section 125.
God is dead. God remains dead and we have killed him. How shall we, the murderers of all murderers, console ourselves? That which was holiest and mightiest of all that the world has yet possessed has bled to death under our knives - who will wipe this blood off us?
Turchin has quite a gloomy prognosis for the West’s future. Have a look at this if you’d like to know more - about an hour long.
A ‘value neutral ethics’ appears to be a contradiction in terms. Ethics are by definition associated with values. Perhaps being ‘value neutral’ means being non-judgmental with regard to the ethics or morality of other countries/cultures.
Many thanks, Dr. Rob Campbell, for this weekly update as well as for all the previous ones. I always look forward to every new article from you. Every update is a great summary of all the important events.
Thanks Rob. Your weekly updates have become even more relevant/necessary with the advent of the Israel/Occupied Palestine front.
Thanks also for the additional information, which facilitates a much wider understanding of the processes that seem to be manifesting in a slow but sure fashion internationally. I'm optimistic concerning the imperial elites unconscious impulse to self-destruction vis-a-vis 'empires commit suicide' even though they would never knowingly do so.
Sir John Glubb in 'The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival' suggested that empires have a ten generation shelf life. Roughly 250 years. The theory seems to revolve around the notion of diminishing expertise over generations as the social systems become increasingly closed to real upward mobility.
If one compares the 'West' to just Russia, China and Iran; the latter three's recent history suggests a degree of social/cultural vitality that is almost completely lacking in the West's creditocracy/neo-feudalism.
PS Richard provided at least three very good 'links' at various substack's this week, which were very useful. So, while I'm here, thanks Richard.