Ukraine Weekly Update
6th October 2023
I think this week’s most significant development was the refusal of the US congress to include $24 billions of Ukraine funding in the latest Federal budget (which will be reviewed on November 17th). Only after this date will the US discuss further funding to Ukraine. Furthermore, due to a lack of funding, the US administration has announced the freezing of long term contract projects to provide aid to Ukraine (i.e. the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) . The Pentagon has warned congress that it may have difficulty funding its own military so won’t have spare cash for Ukraine. Furthermore, an anonymous EU official told Politico that the Europeans can no longer provide weapons and ammunition from existing stock without jeopardising their own security - according to Tass. Speaker of the US congress, Kevin McCarthy has been voted out and could be replaced by Jim Jordon whose funding priorities are domestic. Other candidates for the post may have similar priorities which will not be helpful to Ukraine. To add insult to injury, it looks as if the UK is running out of weapons to send to Ukraine, according to Sputnik.
So, the gravy train may be coming to the end of its long greasy line and the Great Z, his entourage and the least deluded among the Western leaders, will all know this, in their heart of hearts. Maybe this will spark a lightbulb moment in which all of these people will start engaging with reality and act accordingly. Maybe they could start promoting sensible things - such as negotiations. But even my most optimistic mood is not capable of entertaining such a possibility. No. Sadly, this war will drag on through many more thousands of widowed wives, orphaned children, lost sons and war damaged veterans.
The battlefronts may be tragic and bloody, for the Ukrainians especially, but movement by either side has been limited. The Russian MoD reports daily on numerous Ukrainian attacks being repelled, while the Russians are engaged in offensive action around Kupyansk and are counter-attacking elsewhere. The Ukrainians appear to be preparing for offensive action in Zaporizhzhe, Bakhmut and across the Dnieper in the Kherson region.
Elsewhere in the world, a conflict in West Africa has not materialised and the Nagorno Karabakh issue appears close to resolution though at the cost of a mass migration of Armenians from the former ‘republic’ to Armenia.
Where Next for Ukraine?
Ukrainians
There has been much speculation among commentators, including Ukrainian commentators, about what will happen next after Ukraine failed to obtain significant funding from the US. The issue of Ukraine funding cannot now be considered until 17th November, as I have already said. Some are hoping that the Ukrainian army can achieve a breakthrough somewhere before then that would inspire some extra Western funding. But such people are also cautious regarding the prospect of Russian counter-attacks that could cause rear defences to collapse as the Ukrainian ‘big fist’ advances. Others are hoping for a Deus Ex Machina type event that would restore Western support and sympathy to where it was a year or so ago or trigger NATO into a full scale shooting war. A terrorist false flag event implicating Russia would fit the bill - but these Ukrainians don’t mention that. But some are hoping that Z will heed Western advice, freeze the conflict and hold elections. However, the required cooperation from the Russian side is not likely to be forthcoming imv. Some believe that the Ukrainians will go on the defensive and, effectively, freeze the conflict by laying lots of mines. That will make things more difficult for the Russians but it may not stop them. It seems that many are pessimistic regarding their own and Ukraine’s long-term prospects. One commentator on legitimniy said:
Time is against Zelensky. In reality, there will be enough money until the end of the summer of 2024, then there will be “zero”, then hyperinflation and collapse.
(Thanks to Down South at the MoA for the link).
Meanwhile, support for Ukrainian funding in Europe is falling precipitously, according to Zero Hedge.
Zelensky
Zelensky, undeterred by his detractors, is planning a counter-offensive from Kherson and Zaporizhzhe. According to a Ukrainian spokesman:
The Armed Forces of Ukraine intend to launch an offensive in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia directions. A large group of Ukrainian marines was deployed in the Mykolaiv region to cross the Dnieper River. In addition, Ukrainian special forces trained by British instructors plan to seize the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
So the obsession with the Nuclear Power Plant continues. This is a legitimate objective, though, while crossing the Dnieper River is not - and begs the perennial question: ‘What then?’. It seems that at least some Ukrainian ‘experts’ are not optimistic about its prospects of success, according to Pravda.
On the 3rd October, some Telegram channels were reporting that the Ukrainian army has received orders to occupy Tokmak, Bakhmut and Kremennaya between 5th and 15th October. The build up of forces in Kherson could also be activated to add to the chaos. According to one report, the Ukrainians will try to hide the start of the offensive by stepping up attacks by sabotage groups on Russian territory along with massive drone attacks on civilian targets. Lots of huffing and puffing then but will they blow the house down? We shall soon see.
Medvedev
Security Council Deputy Chairman, Dmitry Medvedev is quite a character and has his own view of what will happen next for Ukraine. Known for his menacing rants, his latest is worth quoting:
The special military operation will continue until the Nazi Kiev regime is completely destroyed and the original Russian lands are liberated from the enemy….Victory will be ours and there will be more new Russian regions.
He also applauded the people of those oblasts that have joined the Russian Federation over the past year. Their choice, he asserted:
…became a symbol not only of restored historical justice but also of the unity of the Russian people, their enormous will power and determination.
This sounds as if Medvedev is preparing the Russian people for the army’s advance westward - possibly. Other Russian leaders have been articulating similar messages. Some will say that this was Russia’s plan all along: i.e. to unite the Russian speaking people of Ukraine.
Ukrainian Women Register for Military
Female doctors, nurses, dentists, obstetricians and pharmacists who are between the ages of 18 and 60 will now be registered for military service. The Ukrainian front lines are desperate for people so this does not surprise me. Many health/medical workers have been killed during this conflict.
Culling the Young
Following a suggestion by the UK’s ex-foreign minister, Ben Wallace, it looks as though Ukraine will now start to mobilise men when they reach 20 years of age. Previously, Wallace had said:
The average age of soldiers at the front is over 40. I understand Zelensky’s desire to preserve youth for the future, but Russia is secretly mobilizing the entire country.
Dimwit Wallace must surely appreciate that in the manpower stakes Ukraine cannot possibly match Russia. But this culling of the young is common to all wars.
It should be said that the measures against women and the young are causing thousands to leave the country, including female pharmacists, who may soon be in short supply. You will need to use google translate for this link which will tell you more.
UK to Move Training to Ukraine (or maybe not)
The British Secretary of Defence, Grant Shapps (above), has come up with a brilliant new idea: British trainers will offer themselves up as targets for the Russian military while training Ukrainian soldiers inside Ukraine. Why didn’t anyone think of that one before? Medvedev, in mischievous mood, said: ‘The number of idiot leaders in the NATO countries is growing’. The UK’s own Rishi Sunak said it was all a misunderstanding and what Shapps meant to say was that one day the UK will train troops in Ukraine. Shame that: spoiled a good story. But hold on, this is what Shapps told The Sunday Telegraph the other day (reported by the Independent):
I was talking today about eventually getting the training brought closer and actually into Ukraine as well. Particularly in the west of the country, I think the opportunity now is to bring more things in country, and not just training. We’re seeing BAE, for example, move into manufacturing in [the] country (my emphasis).
Shapps, who also talked about sending the British Navy into the Black Sea to protect Ukrainian shipping, is just the latest of those incompetents whose decisions will impact negatively on our future. The Russians will get to your trainers, Shapps, whether in the east or the west of the country and I can’t see British Aerospace (BAE) risking an enterprise in Ukraine while the Russians rule the skies. Shapps later changed his mind about sending the Royal Navy into the Black Sea, according to Tass. An adult has probably had a word with him.
Tragedy in Groza (Kharkov)
51 people were killed in a missile attack on the village of Groza. Contradictory information about the attack is being received. It is not clear how many of those killed were civilians nor do we know who carried out the attack. I will report on this next week when I know more.
Ukraine Terror Attacks (i.e. attacks that deliberately target )
Bryansk
On the evening of the 29th September, a group of 50 Ukrainians with light and heavy weapons attacked Lomakovka while another group of 10 attacked Kamensky Khutor. All attacks were repelled. On October 1st, the Ukrainians shelled the village of Gorozhanka, in Suzemsky district. They also attacked the city of Trubchevsk with the help of drones. One civilian was slightly wounded. On the same day a substation was damaged by a drone in the village of Pogar disrupting the electricity supply. On the 3rd October, the Ukrainians attacked the village of Klimovo with cluster shells. Some houses were damaged but no one was injured. Then on October 4th, overnight, Ukrainian rockets damaged several houses but caused no casualties. Next morning, the village of Suzemka was shelled.
Belgorod
Early on the 30th September, 9 Uragan MLRS projectiles were shot down over Belgorod. On the morning of October 1st, Ukrainian artillery attacked the central market in the village of Shebekino. A woman suffered shrapnel wounds to her neck and two men were injured by shrapnel in their legs. Later, a school building was damaged in the city district of Grayvoronsky. The children were being taught elsewhere, fortunately The industrial district of Shebekino was attacked by artillery on October 3rd. Much damage was inflicted but no casualties have been reported. On October 4th, artillery damaged twelve houses in the town of Grayvoron, but caused no casualties. Belgorod was attacked with artillery again on the 5th.
Kursk
The village of Gogolevka came under fire from Ukrainian artillery on October 1st. A first aid station, a water tower and a former school building were damaged, the regional governor said, but there were no casualties. On the same day, a group of four Ukrainian militants, armed with M-4 and RPG-7 rifles, tried to enter Russian territory close to Nikolaevo-Daryino. During the ensuing battle, the saboteurs were driven back to Ukrainian territory. On the 4th October, Ukrainian drones attacked infrastructure facilities in the Sudzhansky, Korenevsky, Glushkovsky districts, where there were power outages. The border town of Rylsk was attacked with cluster munitions on October 5th causing shrapnel injuries to one woman who was taken to hospital.
Donetsk Peoples Republic
On October 1st, one civilian was killed by Ukrainian artillery and six were injured. I should remind people that Donetsk is attacked every day with artillery and cluster munitions. The shelling was particularly bad on October 3rd when 100 projectiles were launched against civilian targets according to Rybar. Power lines and residential buildings were damaged and one man who suffered shrapnel wounds was hospitalised. On the 4th October, 100 shells were lobbed at the republic causing much damage but only two casualties. On the morning of the 5th, Gorlovka was attacked with cluster munitions killing three and injuring five. Four others were killed in cluster attacks throughout the Republic on this day while six more were injured. Houses, power lines and a cultural centre were damaged in the attacks.
Kherson
On the night of the 3rd October, the Ukrainians once again randomly shelled settlements on the left bank of the Kherson region, firing a total of 45 shells from cannon artillery. According to a spokesman: ‘Novaya Kakhovka, Kakhovka, Korsunka, Peschanovka, Proletarka and Cairo were under fire. In the Gornostaevsky district, power lines were damaged; at the moment, emergency crews have completely restored power supply’. Kherson region was attacked again on the 5th October.
The Sea War
On October 3rd, a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missile (some say two) was destroyed by air defences over the north western section of the Black Sea near the Crimean coast.
On the 4th October, a small group of Ukrainian commandos attempted a landing at Cape Tarkhankut in a military motor boat and 3 (some say 5) sets of jet skis was intercepted by the Russian air force. 13 would be saboteurs were killed. A captured assailant claimed that the group’s mission was to take videos and photos of the Ukraine flag flying over Crimea: what a waste of life. On October 6th two unmanned boats heading for Sevastopol were destroyed.
The Russians have now moved the Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol in order to protect it from such attacks - according to Rybar.
The Air War
Russian Missile/Drone Strikes (see Ukraine map)
29th/30th September Overnight
Overnight, Geranium drones attacked the village of Kalinovka in the Vinnytsia region (see Map). Strikes were carried out against a concentration of armoured vehicles which, some are speculating, could have contained Abrams tanks. The port of Yuzhny in Odessa was also attacked by a massive missile strike that may have damaged railway infrastructure - according to Slavyangrad. Explosions were heard in Kherson, Sumy, Cherkasy, Khmelnitsky and Kharkov regions while Nikolaev was attacked with an Iskander OTRK missile and kamikaze drones. Ukrainian targets were also hit in Slavyansk and Konstantinovka. It was a busy night.
30th September At Night
A massive attack of Geraniums and missiles was conducted by the Russians late on the 30th Sept targeting virtually the whole of Ukraine. Odessa, Uman (Cherkasy), Vinnytsia, Dinipro (Krivoy Rog), Kharkov, Zaporizhzhe, Nikolaev, Poltava and Kiev were all attacked - according to Ukrainian Telegram channels. An armoured plant (one that repairs armoured vehicles, I think) was hit in Kharkov near the railway station. This same armoured plant was hit on the 16th September but is now completely out of order. A logistics hub was destroyed at Snigirevka in Kherson on the 30th and on the same night, a missile strike hit a Ukrainian train carrying military equipment in the Zaporizhzhe region.
1st October
Russian Geraniums were airborne again on the 1st. Ukrainian Telegram channels were reporting that Geraniums are heading to Mirgorod (Poltava region) and Kamenskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region). Explosions were also heard in Krivoy Rog where it is thought that the cement plant and an ammunition dump were attacked. A powerful explosion was also heard in Kiev. In Kharkov region, Slavyangrad reports: ‘Operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces strikes with cruise missiles at warehouses and air traffic control centers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city of Volchansk’. Sumy region was also attacked but no air raid warning sounded - which suggests that Ukrainian air defences were not up to the task.
On the same day an underground air command and control centre was destroyed in Kharkov (see photo).
October 2nd/3rd Overnight
Kulbakino airport in Nikolaev was attacked overnight according to Slavyangrad and a Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment warehouse in Velikaya Pisarevka1 was destroyed with missiles. The cement plant in Krivoy Rog was attacked yet again.
3rd/4th October Overnight
It appears that the Russians are attacking with Geraniums on a daily basis. In the Dnipro region, workshops of an explosives production plant in Pavlograd were hit.
4th/5th October Overnight
During the night, explosions were reported in Nikolaev region, Odessa region, Kupyansky district, Dnepropetrovsk region, Kirovograd region, Kropyvnytskyi and Poltava region. The Malyshev military workshops in Kharkov were also attacked. On the morning of the 5th, Kirovogard and Poltava (again) came under a massive attack by Russian drones and missiles. Khmelnytsky was also attacked, according to Slavyangrad.
5th/6th October Overnight
Russian drones and missiles hit Ukrainian infrastructure and warehouses in Berislav (Kherson region) overnight. Explosions have been heard in Odessa, Cherkassy, Zhytomyr, Nikolaev and Kirovograd. In Odessa, port facilities at Reni, Ismael and Orlovka were attacked.
Ukrainian Missile/Drone Strikes (Many drone strikes target civilians so are also terroristic)
Bryansk
On October 3rd, Russian anti-aircraft gunners intercepted an aircraft-type drone over the Trubchevsky district: there were no casualties nor destruction. Then overnight on the 3rd/4th October several more drones were intercepted and destroyed.
Belgorod
On the 4th October, according to the regional governor:
The Russian air defense system shot down 19 drones over the Belgorod region. An administrative building in Belgorod, a house in the village of Shishino, Belgorod district, and three cars were damaged.
They caused no casualties.
Late on October 5th, five drones were shot down by Russian air defences over Belgorod.
Smolensk
Early on October 1st, the city of Smolensk was attacked by three fixed wing drones which were disabled by electronic means. They caused no casualties, according to Tass.
Krasnador (east of Crimea)
A drone was shot down over Krasnador at 8 am (Moscow Time) on October 1st. No damage was reported.
Sochi
One drone was shot down over Sochi on October 1st - the first for a week or two.
Kursk
The Kursk region suffered drone attacks overnight on 3rd/4th October air defences dealt with them before they could cause damage. On the evening of the 4th October, the Sudzhansky, Korenevsky and Glushkovsky districts were all attacked with drones. There were power outages which emergency crews have already begun work on. In the village of Gornal, as a result of the fall of an enemy drone, a barn and a garage burned down, one residential building was damaged, but there were no casualties. A Russian border guard was injured by a bomb dropped from a drone and received the ‘Devotion to Duty and Courage Award’, according to Rybar. The border region was attacked by a small group of Ukrainian units again on the 5th October.
The Ground War
Territory
Not many counter-offensives actually result in a loss of territory but this one has for the Ukrainians, according to the New York Times. Brian Berletic and Kalibrated talk about it here (at 3 mins).
FAB-500 Guided Bombs
It is worth mentioning that Russia is now deploying these very large guided bombs to attack Ukrainian assembly points 70 kms behind the front. The weakness of Ukrainian air defences is allowing the Russian drones to map out the entire command and supply infrastructure which is then targeted by the guided bombs2. This gives the Russians a huge tactical advantage in the fighting.
The Fronts
It should be noted that many of the Ukrainian attacks along the fronts are being conducted with small groups of infantry ferried to the front in pick up trucks rather than armoured vehicles. The Ukrainians could be conserving their armour for coming offensive action (or even defensive action) or they could be having supply problems. I have no idea really. The situation will not get easier for the Ukrainians as the leaves fall from the trees and the autumn rains fall from the skies.
Kupyansk
The above map perfectly illustrates the supply problems facing the Ukraine military around Kupyansk now that the Russians have blown many (some say all) of the bridges across the Oskil. They are, of course, also in danger of being cut off as the Russians continued to focus attacks on supply routes including bridges.
Seversk
This is the situation around Seversk (in the yellow circle) where the newly formed Russian 25th Reserve Army has recently been deployed. I can remember back in July 2022 after Lysychansk had fallen, we were expecting Seversk to be next. But it didn’t happen because the Russians, at that time, had insufficient forces in the field. The situation is very different now.
Orekhovo-Vasiliyvka (Artemovsk)
The occupation of this village, 4 km long, has been much debated over the past week or so. On September 30th Slavyangrad reported that most of it has been taken by the Russians though it has not yet been cleared of Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian counter-attacks have so far failed completely. Boriz Rozhin confirmed on the same day that much of the village is occupied but the western part is in the grey zone.
Artyomovsk
The Ukrainians continue to attack in these areas and on the 2nd October 8 attacks were repelled in which 300 soldiers were eliminated. Z has not listened to advice telling him to abandon efforts to retake Bakhmut (Artyomovsk) and it is costing his soldiers dearly. On October 3rd, the Ukrainians engaged in a Reconnaissance in Force around Andreevka which may be the prelude to a larger attack. This area has been difficult for the Russians because Z has committed many reinforcements, for the sake of his own PR - according to some.
Rabotino/Verbove
The map above shows situation around Rabotino and Verbove where the Ukrainians have lost so many men and materiel. This is where you will find the famous ‘Bradley Square’. The 47th and the 82nd brigades are being pulled out for replenishment due to heavy losses. Boris Rozhin reported that over the weekend Ukrainian attacks diminished as several brigades were being replenished. He expects the attacks to intensify once this has been done. And this happened on the evening of October 3rd between Robatino and Kopani - according to the Military Chronicle. This report claims that the Ukrainians reached the Russian trenches but were repulsed by the 291st regiment of the Southern Military District which then counterattacked. On October 4th, the Russians drove the Ukrainians back more that 2 kilometres from the village of Verbovoye. The Ukrainians continued their attacks on the 5th and 6th October, but none of these has been successful. Some say this area is beginning to resemble Bakhmut in terms of the losses and the futility of the attacks.
Kherson
Dima on the Military Summary Channel is reporting an alleged disagreement between Zelensky and Zaluzhny over an offensive out of the Kherson area, across the Dnieper towards Crimea. Z wants to go at the beginning of October, while Zaluzhny doesn’t want to go at all. It has to be said that if reports are true, disagreements between the two are not rare. It is rumoured that Zaluzhny wants to step into the Great Z’s shoes - which raises questions about his sanity. According to Levan Gudadze the Russians have control over most of the islands in the middle of the Dneiper river/delta in Kherson region. Battles continue for Pereyaslavsky Island, as well as in the area of the Antonovsky Bridge. Despite the losses, the Ukrainians continue to hold their bridgeheads.
Vermevsky Ledge
Over the weekend, the intensity of attacks declined here as brigades were replenished and troops rotated.
Konstantinovka
The Russian are suppressing the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the southern Donetsk Direction in preparation for a possible offensive, according to Geroman.
I am including this short video (10 mins) by Weeb Union because it demonstrates quite graphically why Ukraine has been unable to break through.
The Economic War
Russian Oil Cap Not Working
US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen has at last admitted that the price cap the West attempted to impose on Russian oil is not working. Many people are saying: ‘I told you so’.
$300 million to Ukraine
The US congress has passed a separate bill to provide Ukraine with $300 million dollars in aid. This is far short of the $24 billion Biden was hoping for.
Berlin
Berlin is to reactivate coal fired power stations over the winter according to Zero Hedge. Greta Thunberg was heard to shout ‘how dare you!’ but no one took any notice.
World Politics
Slovakia
The pro-Russian Slovak Social Democracy Party, led by former PM Robert Fico, has won the election in Slovakia. It will need to find coalition partners because it can’t rule on its own. Slovakia has provided military equipment to Ukraine in the past but Fico has said that his government will not do so in future. Fico spoke out against the existence of fascist regiments in Ukraine, including the Azov regiment, and criticised the West for ignoring this. ‘They serve in the army and do terrible things. I am shocked that red carpets are rolled out for them abroad’, he said. The legacy media onslaught against Fico has already begun.
Warsaw
It is being reported that on October 1st over a million people took to the streets in Warsaw to protest against the policies of the ruling Law and Justice party. You can see more images here.
Berlin
A demonstration organised by the ‘right wing’ German Alternative for Germany party (AfD) against NATO and funding for Ukraine was held on the streets of Berlin. But the numbers were relatively small at an estimated 4,600 according to RT.
Dusseldorf
Another rally held in Dusseldorf and organised by ‘left wing’ groups also protested against arm shipments to Ukraine. Could left and right come together in Germany, I wonder.
Moldova, Romania and Hungary
Last week I mentioned that the Hungarian government was not happy with ethnic Hungarians being ‘drafted’ into the Ukrainian army. This week, complaints of a similar nature are being voiced by human rights organisations in Romania and Moldova. It appears that these ethnicities (as well as Russian speakers) have been disproportionately targeted as canon fodder.
The Emerging Multi-Polar World Order
Putin At The Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi
The Discussion club, which promotes world multi-polarity, met for the 20th time in Sochi on 3rd-5th Oct. The theme of the discussion was: Fair Multipolarity: How to Ensure Security and Development for Everyone. In his speech, Putin outlined six civilizational principles that should underpin relations in a Multipolar World. Putin said:
First, we want to live in an open, interconnected world, in which no one will ever try to erect artificial barriers to people’s communication, their creative realization, and prosperity. There must be a barrier-free environment..
The other principles were diversity, maximum representation (i.e. sovereignty), universal and lasting peace, justice and equality. Putin talked about the inevitability of multi-polarity and of Russia’s role in changing the world. Sputnik provides more detail here.
Lithium Wars
John Helmer has written a short but interesting article about lithium, which is used to power electric batteries (including the batteries in EVs). The US is making efforts to undermine Russia’s capacity to produce lithium but Russia (which outproduces the US by a factor of three) has joined forces with Bolivia which has the world’s largest lithium reserves in the ground though not in terms of production. This move will ensure that Russia always has a surplus of lithium. Both countries will be joined by Argentina, Brazil and China in seeking to dominate the lithium market in future. John Helmer provides more detail here.
Nagorno Karabakh
It looks as though the 120,000 Armenians who were living in the ‘republic’ of Artsakh will move to Armenia. The republic will cease to exist on January 1st 2024. On the 3rd October, Armenia ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) which will allow it to pursue war crimes charges against some Azerbaijani soldiers. It will also be able to arrest Putin if he calls on the Prime Minister.
Fibber of the Week
And the prize goes to…………..: Lindsey Graham:
To President Trump and anybody else: if we pull the plug on Ukraine, that’s 10 times worse than Afghanistan. To stop funding Ukraine is a death sentence for Taiwan. Putin will keep going. You missed all of World War II if you missed how this movie ends.
Hey Lindsey this ain’t no movie fella.
That’s it for another eventful week. Many thanks for your views, likes, subscriptions and kind comments.
Best Rob
Sorry - the link I was using doesn’t work.
The Ukrainians can reconstitute all the battalions they want - with the usual untrained conscripts who will die within hours of arriving at the front. As I've said repeatedly, the more people you send into a kill zone, the more people get killed. Nothing Ukraine is doing now and in the future has any chance whatsoever of breaking through Russian lines.
Putin made a point of commenting on Ukraine's remaining population of less than 20 million at Valdai. As Andrei Martyanov points outs, this puts a hard limit on Ukraine's mobilization capability.
I stand by my prediction that the Ukraine military will collapse within 3-6 months (now 2-5 since it's been a month or so that I've been saying this). We'll know it's collapsing when Russia moves.
Also, it won't matter whether Biden sends another $24 billion or, as they're talking about, another $60 billion. It will keep the lights on in Kiev for a few more months and fill the offshore bank accounts of the Kiev elite a little higher, but that's about it.
This whole war is rapidly becoming yesterday's news - at least until Russia finally makes a move.
Zelensky is just another camo-clad , rodent-like , shake down artist like Yasser Arafat
And yet we are supposed to believe that's he's a latter day Churchill when in reality he's merely a Ukrainian BORAT !
It just goes to show the seductive power of propaganda on uninformed minds , and it's the same marching morons who believed that a flu-like virus was a lethal pandemic, that those useless vaccines actually worked ; that opportunistic migrants are ''asylum seekers'' and that Joe Biden won the 2020 election , WE are living in a blizzard of LIES