Ukraine Weekly Update
Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.
On January 7th, Orthodox Christians in Russia and Ukraine celebrated Christmas - there was no ceasefire this year. The weather has become very cold in Ukraine with the ground expected to freeze until March. This week has been noteworthy for things that are anticipated as well as things that have actually happened. The International Criminal Court is hearing South Africa’s case of genocide against Israel (for the murders in Gaza) and we are unlikely to get a verdict before this is published. The Ukrainian mobilization Bill will not become law just yet because it breaks several sections of the constitution and has been withdrawn for revision.
Russian progress on all fronts has been slow and the Ukrainians have even managed counter-attacks in places. However, the mood in the Ukrainian camp appears to be gloomy as worries about funding and lack of man/woman power take their toll. Drone and missile strikes by both sides have now become daily events. Whereas Ukrainian strikes on civilians have resulted in a mercifully low casualty rate, those coming from Russia have been far more successful at destroying military targets.
In the Middle East, the battle between the IDF and Hamas/Hezbollah continues while the US and the UK have launched air strikes against the Houthis - who have retaliated with strikes on the vulnerable vessels in the Red Sea. The risk of further escalation is high and the risk to economies is probably higher (the price of oil is already increasing).
Meanwhile, in the US the Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin left his country defenceless for ten days when he failed to let his boss know that he was going into hospital for cancer treatment. This highlights the chaos and division that characterises the Biden Administration. The Western World and the Evil Empire are falling apart and we are watching it in slow motion. We live in interesting times.
Ukraine - Going Downhill?
Zelensky - Not Happy
In one speech Zelensky said:
We all know what Russia is now using against Ukraine, and - in hybrid forms - against all of Europe. It is potential that has been amassed over the lifetimes of several generations, including weapons, industrial and economic capabilities, Russia's energy potential, which it is using to wage its war. We must admit - it is a significant power. But I am still confident, and our results demonstrated, that even Russia can be brought back within the framework of international law. Russian aggression can be defeated (my emphasis).
At a press conference in Vilnius, Zelensky rolled out the usual garbage about Putin invading Finland, Lithuania, L atvia, Estonia, Moldova and so on. And I’m thinking - why would he bother? I have to say that in this short clip he looks a lot better than he does above. Maybe he’d just had a ‘top up’. He was so fired up that he claimed: ‘Our Ukrainian intuition suggests that Russia will not survive if we continue to fight it”. However, intuition doesn’t win wars.
In an interview he gave in Latvia, Zelensky also warned that Ukrainian pensioners will die if aid is not provided. So, the leader of a civilized government is admitting (threatening) that he will let pensioners in his country die if the West does not provide aid. I wonder what Ukrainian pensioners think about this.
Zelensky’s deluded state reminds me of Hitler in 1944/5. Following the attempt on his life in the July bomb plot of July 1944, Hitler was still supremely confident that Germany would win the war. Even in his Berlin bunker in April 1945, with Russian artillery ringing in his ears, he believed he could ‘turn it around’. But this optimism could have been due to the Opioids, Methamphetamine and cocaine his doctor was injecting. I wonder whether Zelensky’s optimism is similarly inspired.
Zaluzhny in Kupyansk - Not Happy
According to Rybar:
Yesterday, a Ukrainian delegation consisting of Minister of Defense Umerov, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny and Chief of the General Staff Shaptal visited the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kupyansk region. Judging by the faces of those present, the topic of conversation was not very rosy.
Lugansk Nazis - Not Happy
The Defence Council of the Lugansk Region met recently to discuss the mobilisation of those in the small number of villages over which it has control. There appears to be a sense of despondency common to both this picture and that of Zaluzhny and co above it. These are not happy confident people.
Mercenaries Take Flight - Not Happy
According to a Turkish Newspaper, foreign mercenaries, including some from Israel, are leaving Ukraine. The publication, dikGAZETE said:
Western mercenary companies are already scaling back their support for the Kiev regime because they could only deliver corpses, not victory flags, to their owners…Having lost in hand-to-hand combat on the front lines, they can only resort to terrorist attacks on Russian territory with the support of militarized formations
Ukrainians to Get Very Cold
An arctic blast is making Ukrainians shiver this week and those in the trenches will be prone to frostbite. Ukraine’s authorities will be making it even colder for its citizens by the imposition of necessary power outages as the electric system creaks at the seams. Of course, the Russians could decide to make it even colder for them.
And Smelly
The Ukrainian authorities in Kiev have been severely criticised for their failure to deal with the malfunctioning/overflowing of the sewage system.
Ukraine Military Corruption
$262 millions has been stolen from funds intended for the military, according to an investigation.
Ukraine’s Depleted Air Defences
Ukraine’s administration is admitting what many reports have been saying for a while: Ukraine’s air defences have been severely depleted since Russia increased its drone and missile attacks - according to RT.
Mobilisation Hesitation
In this report, the Two Majors claim that Ukrainian deputies are reluctant to implement the new mobilization bill because it is highly unpopular and contravenes the constitution in many respects. (If you want more detail you can find it in this article. Warning: it’s complicated).
Zaluzhny is angry at this failure and is reported to have asked:
Who should I fight with? Either turn to the world and ask people there, or go fight if you don’t provide. I need people, the Russians have already called up 400 thousand. Give me people.
Apparently, Zaluzhny completely lost his temper at a political meeting and started to attack the deputies for their indecision.
Many Ukrainians are withdrawing all their money from bank accounts which could be frozen for people who evade mobilization.
At the time of writing, the Mobilization Bill has been withdrawn for revision so that it will conform to the constitution.
Shellfire Matters
No need to comment other than to say that the Ukrainians have used drones to offset this massive shortfall.
Biden Must Reveal Plan For Ukraine Spending - Johnson
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has insisted that Biden reveals his plan for any Ukraine funding. Johnson asked questions such as: ‘What is the endgame in Ukraine? What is our strategy? What is the objective? How will we have proper oversight over these precious taxpayer dollars?” It is a shame that such questions have not been asked before now. John Kirby has announced that the last batch of military aid to Ukraine based on existing funding arrangements has been delivered. There will be no more until congress approves it, according to Tass. Not to worry, Rishi Sunak is to contribute £2.5 billions of our taxes here in the UK. Unbelievable!
Arms Sales To Ukraine Not Tracked - Pentagon
A Pentagon report suggests that around $1 billions of arms sales to Ukraine have not been tracked and could therefore have been stolen. According to Slavyangrad:
More than $1 billion worth of shoulder-fired missiles, kamikaze drones and night-vision devices that the United States has sent to Ukraine have not been properly tracked by American officials, a new Pentagon report concludes, raising concerns they could be stolen or smuggled at a time Congress is debating whether to send more military aid to Kyiv.
The West may live to regret this sloppiness if the missing weapons are used against it - which is likely imv.
Russian Troop Numbers
According to a Ukrainian source the Russians have 462,000 troops fighting in the conflict and are therefore able to rotate to a degree that is impossible for the Ukrainian army.
FEARS Russia is Using North Korean Missiles
The Legacy media is in a panic that Russia could be using N. Korean missiles to attack Ukraine. Well, I’m not frightened. Why should this be more frightening that Ukraine using US missiles to attack Russian civilians. But the public has long been prepared for this demonisation of N. Korea since George W included it in his ‘axis of evil’ along with Iran and Iraq. If you are not frightened of North Korea, Iran, China and Russia, you are not an American - Biden would probably say. So let’s get frightened out there! The EU has issued a joint statement condemning Russia’s acquisition of N. Korean missiles but good old Hungary and Slovakia refused to sign it. I must say that I am getting bored with phrases such as ‘Iran backed Hezbollah’ or ‘Iran backed Houthis’ or even ‘Russian backed Hamas’. The propaganda is becoming tedious and obvious - and, of course, it is also false.1
Ukrainian Terrorist Attacks (attacks that deliberately target civilians)
These have not been so deadly this week as they were last week - thankfully.
5th January
Rybar gave this short report of Ukrainian terror attacks on the 5th:
The AFU continued shelling the peaceful city of Belgorod for the seventh day in a row. This time the enemy hit (https://t.me/readovkanews/71935) a residential courtyard where there could be no military targets. As a result of the attack, windows were smashed in neighbouring houses, more than 30 cars were damaged and two civilians were wounded (https://t.me/readovkanews/71937).
6th January
Rybar gave this report of Ukrainian attacks:
The shelling of the Belgorod region continues. The enemy has deployed long-range MLRS and is targeting civilian areas in Belgorod. Intercepted Alder MLRS missiles have been reported. The border areas of the region are constantly under enemy fire. Yesterday, a civilian was wounded in Shebekino. In DPR, Donetsk, and Gorlovka, five civilians were wounded as a result of shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The enemy fired 165 shells, and the intensity of shelling shows no signs of decreasing.
In the evening, the Ukrainians shelled a hospital in Donetsk city centre with four missiles. Details of casualties have not yet been reported.
The Two Majors provided this short report on shelling in the DPR:
On 6 January 2024, as the inhabitants of the DPR prepared to celebrate Orthodox Christmas, the Ukrainian army shelled the residential areas of Makeevka with rockets supplied by Slovakia. The initial toll of four injured was unfortunately revised upwards, and the final toll is one dead and five injured civilians. Several homes were also damaged.
Tass reported that 14 HIMARS and 49 drones were shot down on this day.
7th January
On the 8th January, The Two Majors gave this brief report:
Yesterday, the village of Kozino in the Rylsky district of the Kursk region came under AFU shelling. In the Bryansk region, two enemy UAVs were shot down over the Pogarsky and Sevsky districts. The most intensive shelling by the AFU is in Belgorod region. 17 settlements were under fire during the previous day, and the enemy fired over a hundred rounds of ammunition. In the DPR, two civilians in Donetsk were wounded by the AFU shelling.
8th January
A Ukrainian S-200 missile was shot down over Belgorod and caused no damage. Later, at 21.30 hours Moscow time, a total of ten MLRS rockets were shot down over Belgorod by the air defences. Some houses, trucks and cars were damaged and there were three casualties. According to Rybar:
In the Bryansk region, the village of Lemeshovka, Sevsky district was attacked by the AFU, resulting in damage to households and cars. Two UAVs were destroyed over the Klimovsky district. In the DPR, a woman born in 1961 was wounded in Gorlovka.
9th January
A drone aimed at Kursk nuclear power station was shot down while shelling killed a woman in the village of Gornal. Two drones attacked an oil depot in Orel causing a fire which has been contained. Another two drones targeting Gurevich International airport in Kursk were shot down. Another drone was shot down over Bryansk.
10th January
An aircraft type drone was shot down over Voronezh region at 14 .30 Moscow time today One person was injured by shelling in the village of Podyvotye, in Bryansk and was hospitalised.
11th January
According to Slavyangrad:
Air defense forces shot down 4 Ukrainian drones: 2 over the Rostov and 2 Kaluga and Tula regions, the Ministry of Defense reported. On the outskirts of Kaluga, a drone exploded over the technical structure of a pumping station, the building was damaged, there were no fires or injuries, said Governor Shapsha. 2 enemy UAVs were shot down over the Kamensky district of the Rostov region, there were no casualties, the consequences on the ground are being clarified, authorities said.
The Two Majors added the following report:
In the Bryansk region, the localities of Lemeshovka in Sevsky district, Azarovka in Starodubsky municipal district, Podyvotye in Sevsky district were shelled, a civilian was injured. The strikes on the Belgorod region do not stop. In the DPR, a civilian was killed by Nazi fire in Gorlovka, and a woman was injured from a UAV drop in Donetsk.
12th January
According to the Two Majors:
The Belgorod region is under constant attacks, the village of Tishanka in the Volokonovsky district was attacked by the AFU with the help of a kamikaze drone. In Donetsk, 6 civilians were injured, one of the AFU strikes hit a city bus.
The Sea War
On the 5th January, at 20.00 hours Moscow time five drones were shot down over the Black Sea west of Crimea.
Early on the 6th, according to Slavyangrad:
As expected, Ukrainian formations again attacked the Crimean peninsula with cruise missiles. A pair of Su-24M bombers launched four Storm Shadows from the Nikolaev area. Judging by the flight path, the target was the airfield in Saki . It was near Novofedorovka that the greatest drone activity was observed last night, which confirms this option.
The airplanes flew back to Nikolaev which the Russians attacked with Shaheeds.
Late on the 6th January, six Neptune anti-ship missiles were shot down over the north western section of the Black Sea. A single missile, thought to have been launched to open the Russian air defences, was shot down over the western coast of Crimea on the 11th January.
The Air War
Russian Missile/Drone attacks
5th/6th January Overnight
Geraniums attacked Nikolaev on the evening of the 5th, according to Slavyangrad. A Ukrainian source reported Shaheeds flying towards Kirovograd, Nikolaev region. Kiev was also attacked. According to Rybar:
The Russian Armed Forces once again launched "Geranium" missiles at the Starokonstantinov airfield in the Khmelnitsky region. Explosions were recorded in the Kupyansk, Kherson, Nikolaev, and Cherkasy regions.
6th/7th January Overnight
Dnepropetrovsk was attacked by drones overnight and four explosions were reported. Kirovograd, Nikolaev, Kherson, Zaporozhye also came under attack along with Odessa, Khmelnitsky, Vinnitsa, Zhytomyr regions. Starokonstantinov airfield was also targeted - as usual.
7th/8th January Overnight
Kharkov (the Proton Radio Plant), Volchansk and Odessa came under attack overnight. Two explosions were also reported in Poltava. According to Slavyangrad, Starokonstantinov, Krivoy Rog, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, and individual settlements of these regions came under attack from drones and various types of missile. Another source reported that 16 strategic bombers (TU95 and TU22) launched missiles while Geranium drones and ‘decoy’ missiles exhausted Ukrainian air defences. MiG31Ks are also said to have launched hypersonic ‘daggers’.
8th/9th January Overnight
According to Rybar:
In the past 24 hours, the Russian Armed Forces launched a major strike on the territories of the Kharkov, Khmelnitsky, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia regions. They used strategic aviation and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, primarily targeting military industrial facilities. By nightfall, there were additional missile strikes in the Kharkov region, resulting in powerful explosions in the Kherson region. The Air Defense Forces of the AFU reported that they were unable to shoot down most of the targets.
Starokonstantinov airfield in Khmelnitsky received a salvo of six missiles at once. According to a Ukranian source:
The Ukrainian Air Force unexpectedly announced that it was able to shoot down a minimum of missiles (18 out of 51). ❗️Failed to shoot down: - none of the 7 S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles; - not a single "Dagger" out of four; - not a single Kh-22 cruise missile out of 8; - not a single Iskander-M out of 6; - and not a single Kh-31P guided aircraft missile out of 2. Only 18 Kh-101/X-555/X- cruise missiles were shot down 55 out of 24, also 8 Shahid/Geranium drones. ▪️Critical infrastructure facilities, industrial civilian and military facilities were attacked in the Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and Khmelnytsky regions.
9th/10th January Overnight
According to Rybar:
At night, our Aerospace Forces struck at the location of the AFU in Kharkov. A similar object was hit in Kherson. Explosions were heard in Konstantinovka and Sumy region, as well as in Volchansk, Kharkov region. Apparently, ours are hunting for guns, from which the AFU are shelling Belgorod and the region.
10th/11th January Overnight
The Park Hotel in Kharkov, which was a deployment point for foreign mercenaries, was attacked overnight. Additionally, cruise missiles were used to hit targets in Dnepropetrovsk and Krivoy Rog. Preliminary reports suggests that industrial facilities were targeted.
The Ground War
Russian MoD Reports
w/e 22nd December: 4690 Casualties killed and wounded; equipment losses 341 (includes 24 boats).
w/e 29th December 4685 Casualties killed and wounded; equipment losses 310 (includes 17 boats).
w/e 5th January 4690 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 365 (including 14 boats)
w/e 12th January 4720 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 313 (including 15 boats)
The Fronts
Zaporizhye - Rabotino - Verbove
Here’s a report from front line reporter, Marat Khairullin dated 9th January:
Friends, I’m in Donetsk, finally back to the front line, while I’m assessing the situation - I’ve been away for more than a month. Therefore, now I will give short information. Details will come later.
In the Zaporozhye direction, the main battle today is around the conditional bridgehead Rabotino - Verbovoe. There are almost two brigades of dill2 sitting in the cauldron here. Ours these days are continuously attacking almost the entire perimeter. The most important thing is that our paratroopers blocked the N-08 Orekhov-Mariupol highway and are attacking along it in the direction of the regional center of Orekhov. Having created a real threat of encirclement of the enemy near Rabotino. Since the New Year, almost a kilometer has been walked along this route in the direction of Orekhov.
In addition, from the village of Kopani, our paratroopers from the 76th division entrenched themselves along the Orekhov-Tokmak highway, passing along the outskirts of Rabotino. There are very tough oncoming battles here. Over the past 24 hours, at the Rabotino-Verbovoye border, forty enemies and three armored vehicles were destroyed, according to official data.
On the 11th January Rybar reported that:
In the Orikhiv sector, Russian units are regaining previously lost positions to the west of Robotyne. At the same time, the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) launched a counterattack to the north of Novoprokopovka, managing to occupy several strong points at the cost of heavy losses.
Kupyansk
On January 6th, the Military Chronicle gave this report on the situation in Kupyansk:
The enemy is again whining about the difficult situation in this direction. Continuous fighting has exhausted the enemy's forces to a minimum in the last months of fighting. Near Lyman Pervy, the situation has deteriorated to the limit - the Armed Forces of Ukraine no longer have shells there for return fire. There is simply nothing to shoot with. Both people and mines are in short supply, there is almost no ammunition. So far, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are surviving due to drone drops, but this state of affairs will not last long - the retreat of the enemy is inevitable in the coming days.
On the 11th January, according to Rybar, ‘the most intense actions are taking place at Synkivka. The Russian Army continues to have the initiative, and heavy fighting is ongoing’. The Ukrainians, who have received many reinforcements, are providing stiff resistance but if the Chronicle is correct, this may not last much longer.
Kherson - Krynki
The situation in Krynki has not changed very much and the Ukrainians continue to take heavy casualties there while making no forward progress.
Bakhmut - Siversk
Russian units are taking offensive actions towards Chasov Yar, west of Bakhmut. The paratroopers have successfully cleared the cemetery south of Bogdanovka, eliminating the remaining Ukrainian forces.
Avdeevka
On the 12th January, according to the Two Majors:
The Avdeyevka sector is characterized by battles at Stepovoye, Ocheretino and the Coke Plant. In the southern sector of the front, our troops are attacking Pervomayskoye. The enemy reinforced its troops with personnel at the settlement of Berdychi and the Coke Plant.
Other Fronts
The Russians are making progress around Maryinka but have been delayed in the Ugledar Direction by Ukrainian counter-attacks - according to Rybar. There have been no changes in the Vremyevka Ledge Direction.
The Economic War
Ursula Van Der Nazi
The Europeans are still trying to reach consensus on funding to Ukraine with Hungary refusing to play ball. RT discusses the matter here. It looks as if they are looking for some way of avoiding their own rules, which is typical of ‘rules based order’ people. In a similar way, they also seek to break international law if it suits them - as they are with regard to stealing frozen Russian funds and the strikes against the Houthis in Yemen.
A year ago, at Davos, Van Der Nazi declared:
We have imposed the toughest sanctions in history, which will put the Russian economy in a decade-long recession and deprive its industry of modern and critical technologies. These Russian crimes will not go unpunished.
That went well didn’t it!
Plan ‘B’ could include a move to deprive Hungary’s of its voting rights until it agrees to the Ukraine funding package. Such is ‘democracy’ EuroNazi style.
France Going Bust
In 2023, 56,000 companies closed throughout France due, in part, to the high cost of energy, which is, in part, a consequence of France’s ill advised participation in the sanctions war against Russia. I would guess that Green Policies have also played their part. This is the largest amount of closures since 2017.
Finland Suffers from Green Policies
Finland’s Green energy policies, which have all but destroyed its coal industry, along with its decision to wean itself off Russian LNG, have resulted in a 20 fold increases in peak time energy costs. When the cost of energy increases so does the cost of virtually everything else. IMV, the Green religion has been responsible for more damage to economies in the 21st century than anything else apart from the printing of money. But I’m no expert.
US Breaks Own Sanctions On Russian Oil
After a period of about 18 months (i.e. since March 2022) the US state has given licenses to some companies to purchase Russian oil. In October 2023 Russian oil was purchased at $74 a barrel and the following month it was purchased at $76 a barrel - which is way above the ‘price cap’ of $60 a barrel imposed by the US. Honestly, American politicians are an embarrassment. Is this yet another example of the ‘rules based order’ not following its own rules?
World Politics
Israel On Trial
Israel’s trial before the International Criminal court began on January 11th when the first hearing was convened. Israel will answer the charges on the 12th January. I would be surprised (and pleasantly so) if Israel is convicted.
Are NATO’s Days Numbered?
Republican presidential candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy may have his faults but if he is elected president he will (or so he says) reduce the US’s involvement in NATO and possibly pull out altogether - according to Slavyangrad. Candidate Donald J Trump (if he is allowed to run) has also talked about pulling out of NATO. Many of our ‘experts’ out there also believe that NATO’s shelf life is close to expiration - so let’s hope it happens.
Ukrainian Mobilization Dodgers Safe In Germany
I imagine that any Ukrainian males who are outside of Ukraine and fearful of becoming dead meat on the battlefield will be seeking passage to Germany where the constitution does not allow extradition, according to Minister of Justice and Consumer Protection, Marco Buschman. Poland has also refused to extradite mobilisation dodgers.
Cracks Now Visible in the Biden Administration As Austin Goes AWOL
Commentators such as Scott Ritter, Larry Johnson and the Duran (to name just a few) have been talking about cracks in the Biden Administration for as long as I can remember. The fact that Secretary of Defence, Lloyd Austin, did not tell some of his colleagues, including Biden, that he was being admitted to hospital is the latest sign that the cracks are growing. For about a week, while the Houthis started attacking shipping in the Red Sea, and things were blowing up in Gaza, no one was at the helm of Team America, no deputy was appointed and Sleepy Joe Biden was blissfully oblivious to the fact. Alexander Mercouris, who is an astute political analyst imv, provides some discussion of the issues here (22 mins). Alexander believes that Austin’s reluctance to tell certain others about his operation may have been born out of fear that his current incapacity could bring the wolves to his door and jeoparadise his position as Defence Secretary. It is also rumoured that Austin’s hospitalisation was a consequence of a visit to Kiev in which he was injured by Russian missiles. I have no idea whether or not this is the case but perhaps the claim that he has been undergoing treatment for prostate cancer is more believable. RT has more detail here.
European Politician Makes Sense
Robert Fitzo, the newly elected PM of Slovakia, has said that he has never agreed with the Western demonisation of Russia as an enemy. He also made it clear that the West was responsible for this conflict (which began in 2014) by undermining Russian security. You can read more of his statement here.
German Farmers on Strike - 8th January.
According to the The Two Majors, the strike will affect supplies of everything and the borders with Poland and Austria will be closed indefinitely:
Due to German policies, energy prices have skyrocketed. Support of Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are hitting German agriculture's sector, destroying it as an industry. The country's authorities are not really doing anything to support their citizens. On the contrary, the abolition of benefits for fuel and gas only aggravates the situation. So the farmers are planning to go to a national rally and voice their views on the problem. It is planned to be peaceful. But...
Here's some short footage. Here's some more.
Romanian farmers have also joined the protests. Let’s hope they spread like wildfire.
By the way, there is some evidence that Putin is behind these protests along with Lukashenko. Just take a look at this.
The emerging Multi-Polar World Order
BRICS in Crimea
Next month, Russia is expecting Belarusian leader Lukashenko, Chinese President Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Modi and South African President Ramaphosa to visit the peninsula for the tenth anniversary of Crimea's annexation. The collective West will then be in no doubt that the leaders of BRICS will be giving a large hint that they support Crimea’s unity with Russia.
China’s Fleet Now Largest in World
China’s fleet is now the largest in the world with the US a close second and Russia third.
That’s it for this week. Many thanks for you views, subscriptions, likes and kind comments. One subscriber asked whether substack has a ‘Headings/Links with Page Option’. Does anyone know?
Happy Holiday to Orthodox Christians.
Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.
I have reported here, as have experts such as Alastaie Crooke, that only some sections of Hezbollah are supported by Iran. I’m not sure about the Houthis. However, Iran does not desire escalation - so will be reluctant to support factions that contribute to this.
Ukrainians
Another excellent recap. Much appreciated.
As for the ICJ case, apparently it will take some 3 or 4 weeks for the judges to assess the evidence and possibly issue an injunction against Israel. The court won't actually make a decision about whether Israel is actually conducting genocide until the full case is run out which could take years. Since the court has no enforcement mechanism, this means absolutely nothing. Supposedly the court can then make a request to the UNSC - which of course the US will veto. So the only possible effect will be if other countries which are signatories to the Genocide Convention will apply economic sanctions against Israel - and that only if Israel doesn't stop the genocide (which it won't.) So my guess is the net effect of the court case will be zero in the short-term.
What irritates me about this is people are claiming that it's just the Netanyahu regime that is advocating ethnic cleansing and genocide - as if that wasn't the stated goal of virtually every Israeli Prime Minister since 1948. One only has to go back and read the statements which are in the historical record. Itzhak Rabin might have been an exception (I'm not sure) and he got assassinated by one of Netanyahu's followers.
About arms sent from the US to Ukraine being diverted. Nigeria brought this up in December, 2022. They claim "Jihadists" seem to have a lot of US weaponry. A search of terms "Nigeria Ukraine Weapons" turns up numerous articles, including (surprisingly to me) this one from Voice of America:
https://www.voanews.com/a/nigerian-president-ukraine-war-funneling-arms-fighters-into-lake-chad-basin/6856806.html