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Things have been quieter in Israel-Palestine this week in consequence of the ceasefire and the battlefronts of Ukraine have produced nothing spectacular. Wintry weather has made its mark on proceedings making it more uncomfortable for the combatants and hindering mobility. Casualties appear to have been reduced in consequence. Discussions about the alleged dispute between Zelensky and Zaluzhny (with Arestovich coming out of the shadows) have been prominent on Ukrainian Telegram channels. The death of 100 year old war criminal Henry Kissinger has probably dominated the front pages and the Biden administration’s many failings are being thrown into sharp relief by the funding fiasco and many diplomatic faux pas. Meanwhile, on this side of the pond, European economies, especially that of the UK, are beginning to creak as a cold winter approaches. We have snow and ice in the Scottish Borders and temperatures will not rise above freezing today.
Negotiations
David Arakhamia, the Ukrainian MP who led the negotiations with the Russians in Turkiye in March 2022 has said that a deal could have been struck between the two sides given the quite modest demands made by Vladimir Putin who wanted Ukraine to remain neutral. However, this would have necessitated a change in the Ukraine constitution which commits the country to joining NATO. Putin also wanted reassurances of the rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine, including the right to speak Russian. As I have reported here on more than one occasion, the deal was scuppered by Boris Johnson, probably on the orders of Washington. You can read more at RT.
Now, a year and a half and up to half a million Ukrainian casualties later, Ukraine Telegram Channels are claiming that the West will force Ukraine to the negotiating table. They will do this, not through applying political pressure but through a gradual reduction in the amount of arms (including ammunition) being supplied and money provided. Such things are being reported in the BILD newspaper, according to legitimniy. Some Ukrainians, so it appears, are not optimistic that the country can keep hold of much of the territory it still holds, anticipating the loss of another 3- 4 Oblasts. On the Russian side, governor of Kherson, Vladimir Saldo, has said that he anticipates that all of Kherson, along with Odessa, Nikolaev and Izmail will become Russian.
Mobilization Problems for Ukraine
Some sources are reporting on mobilisation difficulties as hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians seek to avoid the draft while the number of desertions on the battlefields is increasing. Very few are actually motivated to fight. Security chief, Roman Kostenko, has said that manpower shortages could become acute due to failings in mobilisation. He recommended that the age limit for recruitment be lowered. Mobilisation, when successful, has a knock on effect as labour and expertise is taken from the general economy only to be wasted in battle. According to legitimniy, there is a 43% shortfall in mobilization. So, when Ukraine loses 10,000 troops, only 5,700 replacements are available to replace them.
Shell Shortages
The British Telegraph newspaper is reporting that since the start of the Israeli-Palestine conflict delivery of 155mm shells to Ukraine have fallen off a cliff. In fact, the report goes further to suggest that shell supplies from the West may stop completely.
Ukrainian Aid
According to some Western newspapers, it is possible that aid will not be provided to Ukraine by the US until after the 2024 elections due to the country being gripped by election fever. You can read more here.
Russian Conscription
Russia is to change it rules on conscription so that those under 30 could be required to serve in the military.
Z Sacks Commanders
Z has sacked four commanders of the National guard and replaced them with his own appointees. Some believe that Zaluzhny could be next. One Ukrainian Telegram channel is reporting that People’s Deputy, Maryana Bezuglaya, has said publicly that she is concerned that Zaluzhny has not produced a military plan for 2024. Zaluzhny is pushing for further mobilisation but is not considering changes in the Armed Forces system, which the People’s Deputy believes are necessary. She believes that unless Zaluzhny produces a plan for 2024 he should resign. But Zaluzhny is popular: 89% of Ukrainians would not support his resignation. Polls also show that 57% of Ukrainians support Zaluzhny in his dispute with Zelensky who attracted only 22% support.
Bezuglaya’s comments received strong criticism on social media. Some people called for her to resign.
According to rezident, Alexander Lemenov, the well-known activist and founder of the StateWatch organization, threatened the Ukrainian government with a military coup.
What can be said about this style of communication? I don’t have enough words to describe... They will finish the game. We will lose more territories. But not all, far from all. And in Kiev the government will really change, but not to Russian, but to military. However, I am categorically against this style of discussion. Some people forget who holds the front. Not people’s deputies, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
If such sentiments are widespread, we could see a military coup.
Z has also sacked Major General Osipchuk of the Sumy operational-tactical group, who is said to be a protege of Zaluzhny and replaced him with Major General Alexey Otserklevich (his own man), according to Slavyangrad.
Z’s trust rating has dropped to 32% which is half that of Zaluzhny at 70%. Another poll showed that in an election Zaluzhny would beat Zelensky by 44% to 38%.
Z appears to want to defend Avdeevka to the last in a repeat of Bakhmut but Zaluzhny wants to pull back. But Z’s insistence in staying in the city could be part of a plan to blame a catastrophic defeat on Zaluzhny in order to reduce his popularity. Zaluzhny appears not to trust the SBO to protect him, choosing to arrange his own security instead. The poisoning of Kyrylo Budanov’s wife, Marianna, is a sign of the dangers faced by politicians and their kin in Ukraine at the moment. So, Zaluzhny is being sensible.
Z to Build Defences
According to Bloomberg, Z is urging the immediate construction of defences. This decision may have been reached after it became clear that Western aid will soon start to dry up. b has produced a good article exploring this on the MoA (December 1st). He explains that Z wants fortifications built:
…in all major directions – first of all on Avdiivka and Maryinsky, as well as on Kupyansk and on the Kupyansk – Liman line, in Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. In addition, fortifications will be built along the entire border with Russia and Belarus.
So, it looks as if Z and Ukraine will finally take to the defensive but according to b, ‘what is planned now is too little, too late to save Ukraine’ - which is most certainly true.
Ukrainian Non-Combat Casualties Increase due to Disease and Weather
According to legitimniy non-combat losses have increased recently due to the outbreak of diseases, which has been an issue for some time, and frostbite following cold weather and snow. Morale, already suffering due to the above dispute between Z and Zaluzhny, is further affected by illness.
Arestovich
It seems that Z’s ex-adviser is making political moves. In a video that appeared on Twitter he said: ‘We are savages…we have no independence, we are completely dependent on the West’. He also noted that in some battalions 70% of soldiers refuse to attack1.
Women to Command
As of October 2023, Ukraine had 62,000 women in its army and will challenge gender stereotypes that assume women are not able to command. Russian soldiers are noticing more dead bodies of women on the battlefields.
Electronic Warfare (EW)
According to a report coming from the Economist, the Russians have made huge leaps ahead of their Ukrainian counterparts in conducting EW. Although the Ukrainians have 10,000 drone operators and plenty of drones, they are being thwarted by Russian EW which is disabling a high percentage of drones launched. The report suggests that the Russians are way ahead of NATO in this sphere of activity - and they are getting better.
Christmas Cancelled in Donetsk
In view of the continuing Ukrainian terrorist attacks in Donetsk, public celebrations of Christmas have been cancelled. Any public gathering of people for celebrations would inevitably attract HIMARS with cluster munitions ending in a bloodbath - so this move is understandable, though very sad. But when this is over the people will party like its twenty ninety nine.
Elections Cancelled in Ukraine - Z Becomes Dictator
Elections were officially cancelled in Ukraine through a vote in Rada - the Ukrainian parliament. Elections will now be held six months after martial law ends (i.e. after the war ends) - according to the Military Chronicle. So the Great Z has become a Dictator.
Ukrainian Terror Attacks (i.e. those designed to kill civilians)
24th November
The Ukrainians have long been randomly firing at settlements on the left bank of the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast. On the 24th November, Novaya Kakhovka, Kakhovka, Proletarka, Korsunka, Oleshky, Dnepryany and Golaya Pristan all came under enemy fire
25th November
On this day, two civilians were injured by shelling in the DPR.
26th November
On the 26th at 9.30 am Moscow time, several drones were shot down over Tula, Moscow, Smolensk, Kaluga and Bryansk. According to Tass, 24 drones were downed altogether. One downed drone hit an apartment building in Tula injuring a civilian. Three civilians were wounded in the DPR by Ukrainian attacks on substations, including a young boy.
27th November
Russian air defences shot down 20 drones over Bryansk, Smolensk, Moscow, Kaluga and Tula regions - according to the Military Chronicle. In addition, two converted S-200 missiles were shot down over the Sea of Azov. Three people were injured by shelling in the DPR. A drone was also shot down over Ryazan at around 9.30 pm Moscow time. Another report suggested it was attempting to attack the Dyagilevo airbase. Later in the day, HIMARS attacked Donetsk city and Gorlovka damaging civilian infrastructure including a dry cleaning shop which was completely destroyed.
28th November
In Belgorod, the village of Poroz came under fire with one residential building sustaining damage but there were no casualties. Elsewhere in Belgorod, Naumovka was attacked and a drone was shot down over the village of Tulyanka. Villages on the left bank of the Dnieper in Kherson were attacked once again today. Hola Prystan, Kozachyi Lahery, Kardashinka, Kakhovka, and Korsunka were hit by artillery fire. Incidents were also reported in Novaya Kakhovka, resulting in the death of one civilian and damage to civilian infrastructure.
29th November
Russian air defences shot down a drone over the village of Borisovka in Moscow district and another over the village of Podolsky. Villages in Belgorod were attacked once again as a communications facility was damaged. 140 artillery rounds were launched into the DPR wounding nine civilians. According to Rybar:
In the DPR, the Kuybyshevsky district of Donetsk came under massive fire: six people were wounded. In the Zaporozhye region, the enemy launched missiles at a kindergarten and a hospital in Tokmak. Casualties among medical personnel were reported.
In Donetsk, a market was targeted with Grad MLRS missiles at a very busy time and five houses were damaged by HARM missiles. 49 projectiles were launched into the DPR on this day but they cause no casualties. A drone was also brought down over Rostov.
30th November
On this day, an aircraft type drone was shot down over the Komarichsky district of Bryansk and two civilians were injured in artillery strikes on the DPR.
The Sea War
Crimea
Two drones which came from the Nikopol area and headed for Feodosia were shot down close to midnight on the 24th November, according to Rybar (see above map). On the 26th, two modified S-200 missiles were shot down over the Sea of Azov, according to the Military Chronicle. On December 1st, Russian aircraft discovered and destroyed a sea drone headed for Crimea.
The Air War (Map)
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
24th/25th November Overnight
According to the Military Chronicle:
Since 4 a.m. [on the 25th], the Ukrainian media have been reporting a massive raid by Geraniums on Kyiv. There has not been such an attack since the summer of 2023. Presumably, in anticipation of the first negative temperatures in two days, the Russian army is probing the enemy's air defenses. In addition, explosions were heard in the Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Some reports say that Shaheed drones are also being employed in Kiev, in Sumy Oblast, in Poltava, Myrhorod, in the Nizhyn, Pryluk in Chernihiv Oblast, in the south of Kiev Oblast and in Obukhov. According to a Ukrainian source: ‘A series of explosions occurred in the administrative center of the Kirovograd region, [in] the city of Kropyvnytskyi’. According to this source, 75 Shaheeds were launched.
25th/26th November Overnight
According to Rybar, the Russians launched missile/drone attack on Andreyevka, Ivanovskoye (Krasnoye), Bogdanovka, Fyodorovka, Pereyezdnoye, Vesyoloye (a village northwest of Soledar), Vyemka, and Spornoye.
28th/29th November Overnight
According to Rybar:
The night strike of “Geraniums” and missile weapons fell on enemy targets in Starokonstantinov, Khmelnitsky region (airfield), Voznesensk, Nikolaev region, Vinnitsa, Bila Tserkva, Kyiv region, Kanatovo, Kirovograd region, Zaporizhia, as well as in the Dnipropetrovsk region. In the evening, there were reports of Iskander and FAB attacks on targets in the areas occupied by the AFU near Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka.
30th November/1st December Overnight
Geraniums have been reported flying over Dnipro, Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog - according to Slavyangrad. The airfield at Dolgintsevo (Krivoy Rog) was attacked by a lancet and an SU-25 aircraft was destroyed. The airfield at Starokonstantinov in Khmelnitsky region also came under Russian attack.
The Ground War
According to some Russians soldiers on the front lines, the intensity of Ukrainian artillery has noticeably decreased recently, according to the Two Majors. Blizzards are affecting some parts of Ukraine to add to the difficulties soldiers are experiencing at the fronts. Nikolaev has been hard hit with snow drifts up to two metres deep and more than 2,000 settlements without power. You can see some footage of the conditions here.
The Fronts
Avdeevka
The above map from the Military Chronicle is not in focus and the place names are in Russian but it makes the dire situation of the Ukraine forces clear enough. The Chronicle believes that the Russians will launch a counterattack westwards from this position in the spring of 2024. On the 27th November, the Chronicle reported that the Ukrainians have increased their forces threefold in Avdeevka after receiving reinforcements.
Bakhmut
The Russians have taken the initiative on the flanks of Artemovsk/Bakhmut whereas the Ukrainians have failed in their attempt to surround the city. According to Rybar on the 29th November:
Currently, fighters of the Russian Armed Forces are systematically pushing back the AFU from the approaches to Kleshcheevka. The village itself is not of significant importance due to its location in the lowlands. The heights to the north and in the direction of Krasny are important, and that's where the struggle is taking place.
Zaporizhzhe - Rabotino - Verbove
By the end of the week, the Russians were attacking towards Rabotino and had gained some ground. Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks on Verbovoye have been less successful.
Kherson - Kryinki
The Ukrainians have been stuck in Kryinki this week unable to advance further while the Russians have been unable to kick them out. The Ukrainians are suffering large casualties and are finding it difficult to ferry the wounded back to the right bank.
Kupiansk
According to Rybar on the 29th November:
In the vicinity of Kupiansk, military personnel from the "West" group of troops of the Russian Armed Forces have successfully pushed back Ukrainian formations from several landings south and southwest of Liman 1 and have entered the village of Synkivka after weeks of systematic advance.
Positional battles are happening elsewhere as the Ukrainians continue to reinforce the area and are constructing a second defensive belt around Podol and Petropavlovka.
The Economic War
Slovakia
Newly elected Prime Minister Fico will be pressing for research to be conducted regarding the effects of Russian sanctions on individual European states and on the Union as a whole. This is what happens when Europeans start electing adults.
Germany
Five and a half million Germans cannot afford to heat their homes this winter - but I bet they are feeling self righteous in their Green Russophobia. Meanwhile, Michelin is moving three of its factories out of Germany due to high energy costs - and Scholz appears to think its all so funny.
World Politics
Estonia At War?
Estonia has erected ‘dragon’s teeth’ barriers along some sections of the border with Russia, according to Slavyangrad. This was done in preparation for a border closure to be initiated soon. I have no idea whether they are expecting Russian tanks or not?
Finland Closing Border
Finland is to close its eastern border with Russia - to teach those Russkies a lesson, I suppose. The northernmost crossing point will, however, remain open. A Russian diplomat reckons that this will cost Finland $3.3 billions. The Fins claim that Russia is using refugees to destablise Finland, according to RT. Russia has not yet responded to these accusations.
Dutch Survey
A recent survey shows that the Dutch people are getting fed up with war and 56% of them now believe that Ukraine should give up territory in order to secure a peace. This figure was only 26% last year. Forever narratives rarely pass the test of time.
Poland and Ukraine
The dispute relating to the free movement of Ukrainian truckers has become the focal point of an economic conflict between Poland and Ukraine. The situation with regards to the truckers has become tense following the deaths of two Ukrainian drivers who did not die in suspicious circumstances. Nevertheless, this has caused more bad feeling between the two sides. But the conflict between the two also involves Ukrainian grain, which Polish farmers do not want to enter their country and thereby force down the prices of their own produce. A group of Polish farmers joined the protest/road block on the 27th November. Producers in Slovakia and Hungary have similar issues with Ukraine. Coincidentally, or maybe not, all three countries have territorial claims on Ukraine which is beginning to look like a carcass ready for the picking by neighbouring predators. It is possible that public opinion in these countries is being made ready for a future confrontation with Ukraine. Some Ukrainians are expressing such concerns on Telegram channels. And at least one Polish political activist - i.e. Gaya Godek - is calling for the return of Lvov to Poland. Some believe this is what many Poles are thinking, but dare not say out loud.
Putin At Russia’s People Council
On 28th November, in a speech at the council, President Putin called out Western racism against all the diverse people who make up Russia because the West wants to dismantle the country and seize its resources. According to RT, he also said that:
We are fighting today not only for the freedom of Russia, but for the freedom of the whole world..[Moscow is now] at the forefront of creating a more equitable world order and without a sovereign, strong Russia, no lasting, stable world order is possible.
That’s it for another week. Many thanks for your views, subscriptions, likes and kind comments. Best wishes from shivering Scotland - Rob
Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.
Thanks to Simplicius for the link.
Thank you so much, dear Dr. Rob for writing such a superb report and also hopefully you are not too cold and freezing in Scotland.
Good stuff as usual Rob. Keep warm.