Ukraine Weekly Update

Some want more like him and many want him gone. So, will he run for president?

This week has been dominated by the Middle East conflict, especially the horrors and atrocities of northern Gaza. In view of the importance of this conflict and the humanitarian catastrophe that’s developing there, I am uncomfortable writing about Ukraine and not writing about Palestine. So, from now on I will be providing you all with an Israel-Palestine Weekly Update which will be sent to you every Friday - starting today.

It seems that US funding to Ukraine has dried up as the latest funding Bill to keep the Federal government functioning does not include funding for Ukraine or Israel. But both will probably get funding by the back door as well as supplies of military ordnance so that they can fight their wars. Whether Ukraine suffers due to its Middle Eastern competitor remains to be seen: it probably will.

There is much speculation about the Great Z being replaced by someone, possibly Zaluzhny, in the not too distant future and the Great Z himself is fearful of a Russian backed coup. On the battlefields, it appears that the Russians have the upper hand in most places, but there have been no spectacular advances by either side. But as always, some sections of the front - or Directions - are pregnant with possibility. For the Russians, Kupyansk and Avdeevka appear promising while Krynky in Kherson Direction may be fruitful for the Ukrainians (though I doubt it).

The Ukrainian Counter-Attack Didn’t Happen

In 1991 the postmodernist and sociologist, Jean Baudrillard, published a book called The Gulf War Did Not Take Place based on articles he had previously written. His point was that as far as the world public was concerned the war was a carefully scripted media event rather than a real war. The US hardly engaged with the Iraqi army and suffered very few casualties due to its overwhelming superiority in firepower. In the media coverage little attention was paid to Iraqi casualties so people had no real sense of a war being fought (Baudrillard did concede that a war was being fought in Iraq). The US was learning its lesson from the Vietnam war in which media coverage was less restricted and contributed to anti-war sentiments in the US.

Now in Ukraine, a narrative is being created that suggests that the Ukrainian counter-offensive was not the failure everyone thought it was because it didn’t actually happen. The pseudo counter-offensive that allegedly began more than five months ago was a massive media psyops designed to create the impression amongst the Russian invaders that an offensive was happening when in actual fact the Ukrainians were holding back their forces for a future offensive. This real offensive will soon surprise and demoralise Ukraine’s opponents making it easier to defeat them. This short vid is part of Ukrainian propaganda efforts to lift morale. But the Ukrainian dead, screaming at the injustice in the blossoming graveyards would provide a very different verdict on the fighting that ended their lives.

Z Must Admit Defeat - The Spectator

Not sure if he will turn up Z

Dear Z - do you remember those halcyon days when the ‘Ukraine is winning ‘ narrative dominated the legacy media. But battlefield realities dictated that this should eventually be replaced by the ‘Ukraine is not losing’ narrative followed by the ‘Ukraine will win some day’ narrative. But in the November 18th edition of its magazine, The Spectator is asking Z to be honest and admit defeat. And so the ‘Ukraine has lost’ narrative which has been promoted by people like Ritter, Johnson and MacGregor for many months, could soon become de rigueur.

The Washington Post chimed in with the suggestion that ‘It’s Time To End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat’. Rather, ‘Putin has withstood the West’s best efforts to reverse his invasion of Ukraine and his hold on power is firm. The US and its allies need a new strategy: containment’. The sentiments are sound but the timing is just awful: at least six months and 100,000 Ukrainian casualties too late. But it belongs as part of the ‘Ukraine has lost’ narrative.

Z has admitted that his supply of 155mm artillery shells has declined due to the needs of the Israelis - according to RT. If they stopped using the shells to target civilians that may help.

Z Fears Russian backed Coup

Z has said that he believes Russia is in the process of organising a Maidan type coup against him, according to Pravda. This information has come through Z’s intelligence services, so he claims. Little does he realise that he is Russia’s greatest asset and that the CIA, MI6, Zaluzhny or Kyrylo Budanov (if he still lives) are more likely to organise a coup against him than the Russians.

Ukraine Must Join NATO

Former head of NATO, General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, has suggested that Ukraine should join NATO without the territories it no longer controls - according to Tass. These people appear to have learned nothing from this conflict and are oblivious to their own rules. As far as I am aware, a country at war is not allowed to join NATO while at war. If this happened, it would simply inflame the situation and encourage Russia to conquer the whole of Ukraine, which it probably does not want to do. Of course, such a move could send us on a course towards Armageddon. Rasmussen’s idiocy reminds me a bit of Homer Simpson in the above episode, oblivious to the fires that are burning in the nuclear power plant he is nominally in control of.

East of England - Radiation Spikes

In May 2023, the Russians blew up an ammunition dump in Khmelnitsky, Ukraine, which is 200 km east of the Polish border. Some have speculated that the dump contained depleted uranium shells donated by the UK. Well, in what could be a spectacular case of ‘chickens coming home to roost’, radiation levels in the east of England have increased considerably, according to Sputnik. The levels may be much higher in locations between Ukraine and England but no measurements are available.

Putin Wins Popularity War

Putin’s approval rating has reached 79% while that of his Western opponents continues to decline. Biden 39% (how on earth is he that popular); Sunak 29%; Macron 28%; Scholz 26% - according to Slavyangrad.

Zaluzhny

The Washington Post - said to be a mouthpiece of the CIA - is claiming that Colonel Roman Chervinsky was responsible for setting up the logistics for blowing up the Nord Streams under the command of Valerii Zaluzhny. You’ve probably heard this fairy tale before but the fact that the Post is talking about it may indicate that Zaluznhy is not being considered as a replacement for Zelensky. Chervinsky is currently under arrest in Ukraine for abuse of power. At least one Ukrainian general wants Zaluzhny as president according to Slavyangrad:

The former commander of the defense of Nikolaev, Major General Dmitry Marchenko, said that he wants the nomination of Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny for president.

legitimniy is reporting that Z and Ermak are planning to start a video campaign using military personnel who are critical of Zaluzhny in order to discredit him.

b on the MoA has a piece (November 14th) that examines Larry Johnson’s speculation regarding the influence of the CIA (and WaPo) in promoting Zelensky and that of MI-6 (and the Economist) in promoting Zaluzhny.

It appears that the number of Ukrainian troops surrendering is increasing and some of these talk about being forced to fight and say they have witnessed crimes against human beings. However, they also talk about rumours of Zaluzhny’s detention.

On the 14th November, a Kiev court ordered the arrest of Alexander Dubinsky, an independent MP and journalist, on charges of treason and spying for the Russians. Dubinsky has become increasingly critical of Z in recent weeks and has suggested that the arrest is politically motivated (which is likely).

Some believe that this alleged conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhny is pure theatre. Others believe the latter to be dead along with Kyrylo Budanov. I don’t know what to believe.

Corruption on the Front Lines

The wife of a missing soldier has used TikTok to accuse the command of the 77th Separate Air Mobile Brigade of corruption. Commanders, she alleges, are charging soldiers 30-70 thousand hryvnia to avoid combat missions, 20,000 to go on leave and 10,000 to be evacuated from the battlefield. The woman has been threatened for her comments, according to rezident.

US Running Low on Patriots (i.e. the air defence system)

It is being reported that the US is running low on air defence systems, many of which have now been sent to Israel and US middle east bases - which means that Ukraine is now standing at the back of a very long queue.

Ukraine Terror Attacks (i.e. attacks that target civilians)

DPR

Several regions of the DPR were attacked on the 11th November and on the following day. On the 13th a man was killed by shelling. On the 14th, two people were killed and five wounded by shelling. On the 15th November, four civilians were injured by shelling in Gorlovka. Later in the day a man was killed and his female companion injured by an attack on the Park of Culture and Recreation. According to the Two Majors 196 shells were lobbed into the DPR on the 15th. On the 16th November, one civilian was killed and another five injured by Ukrainian artillery strikes.

Moscow/Smoleknsk

Drones were destroyed over Moscow and Smolensk on the November 10th. According to Tass, a solitary drone was shot down by air defences over Moscow on the 13th November. Another drone was shot down over Smolensk on the 15th according to the Two Majors who also reported that on the morning of the 17th November, two more drones were shot down over Smolensk by local air defence forces.

Belgorod

The region came under attack from artillery on the 11th November through to the 13th when a drone was shot down. Some villages came under artillery fire on the same day. Artillery continued to attack villages on the 14th and 15th November. According to Tass, the Ukrainians lobbed 36 munitions of various types into Belgorod over a 24 hour period (15th/16th). The outskirts of village of Stariy received 24 ‘grenade shells’ but suffered neither damage nor casualties. In addition, some villages suffered attacks by mortar shells but there was no damage or casualties.

Bryansk

On November 11th, short range aircraft attacked a car with border guards killing a lieutenant colonel. The Ukrainians shelled Sushany in Klimovsky district and Lomakovka in Starodubsky municipal district. One drone was shot down by air defences on the 13th while some districts came under artillery fire. Ulytsya came under fire on the 15th November and two drones were shot down by local air defences later in the day. On the 16th, two more drones were shot down.

Oryol

One drone was shot down by air defences on the 13th November.

Tambov

A single drone was shot down by air defences on the 13th November.

Kursk

On the morning of November 11th, the village of Kozino was attacked. On the 13th the village of Popovo-Lezhachi came under fire and a man received injuries from an explosive device dropped by a drone. Also as a result of explosives dropped from a drone, a man was injured in the village of Gornal, Suzhansky district. Suzhansky district was shelled again on the morning of the 16th November, according to Rybar.

Zaporizhzhe - Berdyansk

Two Stormshadow missiles were shot down over Berdyansk by Russian air defences on November 11th.

The Sea War

The Russian Black Sea Fleet sailing past Sevastopol Bay.

On the night of the 15th/16th November, three drones were intercepted over the Black Sea near the Crimean coast. Early on the 17th, another two targets (probably Neptune anti-ship missiles), were shot down over the Northern Pier in Sevastopol - no damage was caused.

The Air War

Russian Drone/Missile Attacks

11th/12th November Overnight

Port facilities in Odessa were attacked overnight by Onyx missiles, according to Slavyangrad. Geraniums were reported to be attacking Kiev and Kharkov regions and Mirgorod airport in Poltava was attacked once more. Explosions in the areas of Dnepropetrovsk and Novomoskovsk were also reported by Ukrainian sources.

13th/14th November Overnight

Geraniums were out in force again overnight. Nikolaev, Cherkasy, Kirovograd and Vinytsa were attacked. Air alerts were triggered in Khmelnitsky, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Ternopil and Chernivtsi regions. Starokonstantinov airfield may have been targeted.

14th/15th November Overnight

Geraniums have attacked Starokonstantinov airport in Khmelnytsky region, according to Slavyangrad.

15th/16th November Overnight

Slavyangrad has reported that Mirgorod airport in Poltava was attacked overnight. Another report suggests that the airport will now be unusable. Explosions have also been heard in Odessa where Geraniums are thought to be flying. A Ukrainian source claims that Stanokonstantinov in the Khmelnitsky region has been attacked (probably the airfield).

16th/17th November Overnight

Explosions were heard in Starokonstantinov, Khmelnitsky region where the airport was attacked yet again with Geraniums. This is where SU-24s take flight to launch Stormshadow missiles against Crimea.

It seems that the Russians are determined to destroy the Ukrainian air force and the bases from which it operates.

Ukrainian Drone/Missile Attacks

Tambov

An explosion was heard and seen overnight in Kotovsk City in Tambov region south east of Moscow and north east of Kharkov. It appears that a gunpowder factory was set on fire.

The Ground War

Russian MoD Weekly Reports

w/e 27th October: Casualties: 5585 killed and wounded (797 per day); equipment losses = 253

w/e 3rd November: Casualties 5435 killed and wounded (776 per day); equipment losses = 377 (includes 35 watercraft)

w/e 10th November: Casualties 4825 killed and wounded; equipment losses 308 (includes 15 boats)

w/e 17th November: Casualties 5115 killed and wounded; equipment losses 227

Vremivka

On the 14th November, the Russians were advancing from Priyutny to reclaim territory lost to Ukraine during its June 4th offensive. Russian units launched an attack and attempted to expand the bridgehead between Urozhayne and Novodonetske but were not successful and suffered significant losses. Attempts to capture the heights west of Staromayorsky have also been unsuccessful so far.

Avdiivka

On November 12th, after a month of fighting in which heavy losses have been incurred, the Russians entered Stepove (according to Dima of the Military Summary Channel). On the 14th November Dima said that Avdiivka could fall any day. Spanish Newspaper El Pais reports that Ukrainian troops are operating at the limit of their capabilities in this Direction. The Russians continued to make progress throughout the week extending their capture of relatively high ground on northern flank of the city while the Ukrainians have been launching counter attacks - none of which has succeeded. The corridor available to the Ukrainians for supplying the city has reduced to 4 kms while the Russians have fire control over it from the heights. If you want more detail, I suggest you read Big Serge’s recent article. It is long but excellent. Big Serge concludes that the Ukrainians are now in a worst position in Avdeevka than they were in Bakhmut.

Kherson/Krynky

Over the weekend the Ukrainians continued to occupy the village of Krynky and some of the forest belt south of it. But they have taken a hell of a beating from Russian artillery and air force while those who ventured into the forest have been tightly surrounded, according to the Military Chronicle. By the end of the week, the Ukrainians had still not been evicted from Krynky which they are trying hard to reinforce with men and heavy equipment via pontoon bridges.

Zaporizhzhe - Rabotino - Verbove

This week, the Ukrainians have launched attacks towards Kopani, Novoprokopovka and Verbovoye. Although the Ukrainian use of cluster shells caused some problems, all attacks were repulsed. The Russians are counter-attacking and advancing slowly.

Kupyansk

On the 14th November, according to Rybar:

The Russian Armed Forces are advancing in the Kupyansko-Masyutovsky forest. The enemy is suffering heavy losses and has been forced to switch to the practice of combined units. Heavy battles are taking place in the Timkovka and Ivanovka areas, with active artillery engagement from both sides.

A Ukrainian source¹ claims that on the 15th the Russians attacked along the entire line of contact and were attempting to take back the City of Kupyansk - according to Slavyangrad.

Artemovsk (Bakhmut)

On November 17th, Rybar provided this brief sitrep:

on the southern flank at Kleshcheyevka, we have the initiative, fighting for the heights. The situation is much worse at Andreyevka, where the AFU try to expand their zone of control in the southeast of the village. On the northern flank, our army is advancing towards Bogdanovka, but the AFU is not willing to retreat and prepare for a counterattack.

The Economic War

Russia and Venezuela to Trade in Own Currencies

At a meeting between Yvan Gil Pinto, Venezuela’s foreign Minister and Sergei Lavrov it was agreed that trade between the two countries will now be carried out in their own currencies, according to RT. Pinto pointed out that this move is part of the de-dollarisation process being promoted by BRICS countries.

US Funding

A bill has been passed by the US House or Representatives (i.e. congress) to fund the government until the end of the year. The bill does not include funding for Israel or Ukraine. You can read about it here.

Germany

Germany may be providing Ukraine with up to 8 billions Euros in funding in 2024, according to Tass. During the past year and a half Germany has already provided Ukraine with 24 billion Euros in aid. They obviously have money to burn - as well as Leopard 1s, another 24 of which will soon be set on fire by the Russians. Meanwhile, in German industry, two out of three firms are either fully or partially moving their production abroad due to the self-inflicted energy crisis.

Smelly Germans

While their government has money to burn, ordinary Germans are having to burn less gas by reducing the time they spend showering. Some are even resorting to cold showers - brrrrr ! You can read more here.

France

France is to stop the provision of free military equipment to Ukraine which will now be required to purchase arms supplies directly from France’s arms manufacturers through a support fund towards which the French have contributed 200 million Euros ($213 millions) - according to RT. I am not sure who else contributes to the fund.

Denmark

The Danes have said that they will block Russian oil tankers as part of an EU initiative to control the flow of Russian oil. But as Maria Zakharova pointed out, this would be in breech of the Copenhagen Treaty of 1857 and the UN convention on the Law of the Sea (1982) which allows unhindered passage through the Baltic Straits. This is just another example of Western arrogance which is above conforming to its own laws - when it suits them.

Free Grain From Russia With Love

In December of this year, those evil Russkies will be sending free grain to Burkino Faso and Somalia, according to RT. They will supply other African countries with free grain in the new year. And this Russian love is unconditional - unlike that of the West.

World Politics

Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) - San Francisco (12th-18th November)

Twenty one countries are involved in this conference promoting economic cooperation, including Russia and China. The streets of San Francisco have apparently been cleared of feces and the homeless so as not to offend X Jinping who will have a private meeting with Biden. Bizarrely, Anthony Blinken announced, or conceded, that China is not supplying arms to Russia which other US politicians have accused it of doing. This could have been a diplomatic sweetener portending some sort of trade between the two countries. In other words, the US is being nice to the Chinese because it wants something from them - possibly. The inimitable, Maria Zakharova, has revealed that the US has signaled its willingness to engage in talks with Russian officials ‘behind the scenes’ at the conference. Tass’s article does not say more about the possible substance of such talks, which Zakharova is keeping to herself.

Sleepy Joe Biden met with Xi Jinping at some point in a cordial meeting between the two. But then Biden spoiled it all by calling Xi a dictator again. Have a look at this short clip of Joe’s baby sitter - aka Anthony Blinken - responding to Biden’s faux pas.

Ukrainian Refugees Go Home

Last week I reported that some Ukrainians are going home from Germany after collecting the generous state benefits. Now, the New York Times is claiming that 40% of Ukrainian refugees have returned home at some point to visit relatives or keep medical appointments (reported in RT)

Turkiye and Sweden

The Turkish parliament has postponed discussion of Sweden’s possible entry into NATO claiming there is a ‘lack of clarity’ on the issue which is not yet ‘mature enough’ to be discussed (whatever that means). Why do I get the feeling that Erdogan is sending a signal to the West following his dissatisfaction with it in relation to Gaza?

Venezuela Criticises West on Ukraine

Yvan Gil Pinto, Venezuela’s foreign minister attended a joint press conference in Moscow with Sergei Lavrov in which he accused the West of artificially prolonging the conflict in Ukraine, thereby ‘further destabilising the situation’ - according to Tass.

The Multi-Polar World Order

Russia’s Intervision Song Contest

Russia is to launch a song contest to rival Eurovision, according to Pravda, in which BRICS countries will be invited to submit entries. Alongside this, a Eurasian film festival will also be launched complete with award ceremonies and compatible with a multi-polar world. They will probably be an improvement of Eurovision and the Oscars - though I can’t claim to have watched either in 40 years.

It’s good to end with something upbeat.

Many thanks for your views, subscriptions, likes and kind comments. More than 500 of you have now subscribed, which is pleasing, and around two thousand view my Update every week - according to Substack’s stats anyway. You are my biggest audience ever. Thank you.

1. Vladimir Fityo - head of public service of command of the ground forces of Ukraine.