This week has been full of anniversaries and important events in Russia, Ukraine and around the world. Ukraine celebrated its ‘independence day’ while Russia celebrated the beginning of the post-Soviet era in 1991 (AKA Russian Flag Day). It also celebrated the 80th anniversary of its victory over the Germans at Kursk in 1943 - see above.1 Belarus hosted an anti-fascist event and Seattle hosted the APEC conference which finished this week. The most important of these events, arguably, has been the 15th BRICS Summit which accepted new members into the fold and which is discussed in more detail below. There has been lots of fighting and lots of killing on the fronts but progress by either side has been limited with the Russians enjoying more success in this respect around Kupyansk. Ukraine’s drone and cluster artillery attacks on civilians have intensified as it continues in its efforts to provide the world’s press with some visible sign that it is achieving something. In the US, the intrigue around Biden’s corruption and Trump’s record fourth indictment continues. It appears that US funding to Ukraine may come under scrutiny but I am not optimistic that anything will change in the near future. But the story that will probably generate more discussion than any other is the plane ‘crash’ that has apparently killed Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin. What a week!
Russian Flag Day 22nd August
Flag day commemorates August 22nd 1991: the beginning of the post-Soviet Era.
How Will It All End?
I think that trying to predict what will happen in this conflict is much more difficult than trying to predict the weather in the UK but many of the main commentators provide speculation2 to varying degrees in spite of the difficulties. But not many claim to be certain about their informed guesswork. Some of this speculation is devoted to predicting what the Russian army will do after the Ukrainian offensive is over, while others speculate on the final outcome of the war - including this well presented article by Larry Johnson. Larry explores three possibilities: 1. Unconditional Surrender 2. A Negotiated Settlement and 3. Prolonged Conflict and Exhaustion. I expect some would come up with other possibilities. I think that the third of Larry’s options is the least likely but the other two are both possible in my view.
For many months, I have been reporting on what the ‘experts’ believe Russia will do following the failed Ukrainian offensive. On my 23rd June Substack, I reported on retired Indian Major General GD Bakshi’s belief that once the Ukrainian offensive has exhausted itself the Russians would attack Kharkov, Odessa or Kiev. Map. On my 7th July Substack I reported on Russian ex-colonel, Gennady Alyokhin’s suggestion that once the Ukrainian offensive has petered out, the Russians will attack from Sumy and proceed west of Kharkov. More recently, Weeb Union, who was informed of a huge build up of Russian forces in the north, suggested that an offensive in Kharkov Oblast could be launched to sever supply lines to the Ukrainians in Siversk, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk forcing them to retreat. Scott Ritter takes the view that the Russians may require further mobilisation if they want to invade western Ukraine while his fellow countryman Colonel Doug MacGregor believes it is possible that the Ukrainian army could disintegrate in the field. So there is no shortage of speculation out there. Here’s what some important figures have speculated regarding the war’s outcome over the past week or so.
Medvedev
This is what former President Medvedev had to say:
Should it take years or even decades, then so be it. We have no choice: either we will destroy their hostile political regime, or the collective West will eventually tear Russia to pieces. And in this case, it will perish with us. Nobody needs this. Therefore, the only way is a complete dismantling of the state machine of the hostile country and absolute guarantees of loyalty for the future. They can only be provided by Russia’s control over everything that is happening and will happen in the territories of the former Banderite state. And we will achieve that.
Richard Steven Hack, among others, is in agreement with Medvedev’s view that Russia must take control of the whole country in order to achieve its objectives. If you would like to know why, have a look at this. But does this mean that Russia will need to invade the west of Ukraine in order to take control or might it be able to exert control without doing this? Given the current political situation in Ukraine it seems unlikely that the people in the west would chose a government friendly to Russia so perhaps it will invade this part of Ukraine. As soon as you start looking at the Ukrainian situation in more detail you begin to realise how unpredictable it is and how difficult it will be for the Russians to deal with it. I have no idea what will happen.
Lukashenko
In a long interview with journalist Diana Panchenko, Lukashenko expressed his views about how the conflict could end. He believes that the Great Z cannot stay in power and if he refuses peace talks with Russia things will not end well for Ukraine:
Russia has 250,000-strong reserves armed with modern military equipment. They will grind you, and then they will do what you are most afraid of - they will cut you off to Moldova, to Transnistria. Ukraine no longer has motivated, ideologically minded Nazis. All of them have been annihilated by now. Who is fighting here now? The ones you catch in the streets and then take them here - they are not prepared. There are not many soldiers either. They will not be able to cope with this machine.
Lukashenko is among those who believe that Russia could invade the west of Ukraine, which would be required in order to deny the country access to Moldova (Map). He does not believe that Belarus will get involved in the conflict and is sure that neither the Russians nor the Ukrainian people would accept a merger with Poland or an occupation by Polish forces of any part of Ukraine.
Sergey Krivonos
Ex Russian General Krivonos believes that before very long the Russians will encircle Kharkov and trap the Ukrainian Army in the east. He is not the first to suggest this, if my memory serves me well (which is not always the case).
Yevgeny Balitsky et al.
Balitsky, who is the acting governor of Zaporizhzhe Oblast, has revealed that the Russians are planning ‘a lot of interesting things’ in the fall. Putin was right, he said when he claimed: ‘you ain’t seen nothing yet’. Yuri Polodyaka, the famous military blogger, along with others who may be ‘in the know’, are predicting a huge offensive before the end of September. We’ll just have to wait and see. Many of those predicting offensives haven’t got a good track record.
I don’t engage in speculation very often because there are lots of things I simply don’t know. I don’t know how long it will take for the Ukrainian army to exhaust itself sufficiently so that it will not be able to offer significant resistance to a Russian advance. I do not know how many troops Russia has in the field or where they have been deployed. I don’t know how many reserves the Ukrainians have left - nor do I know what nasty tricks NATO has up its sleeve. I do not know what the Russian military is planning and I do not know what political issues are guiding or limiting its actions. So I’ll leave speculation to the ‘experts’.
But just like many others who have studied the Second World War I find myself making comparisons between battles fought then and what’s happening in Ukraine now. Some have compared the current situation to the battle of Kursk which was commemorated this week - and with some justification since the Russians constructed formidable defensive lines in each case. But I can’t help feeling that there are similarities between the current situation and the battle of Stalingrad (there are also many huge differences, of course). So please forgive me this little indulgence. The German army was attrited massively before it even reached the city on the Volga - as Glantz and House have shown.3 The flanks of the fronts north and south of Stalingrad were robbed of German units in order to feed them into the city fighting and these were replaced by ill-equipped non-German forces. Sections of the front were weaker in consequence. Furthermore the Germans were short on reserves, and supplies, especially oil. The German supply lines were long and precarious. There are similarities between this situation and that which exists in Ukraine currently. The best units of the Ukrainian army have long gone and its reserves, or most of them, have already been deployed. Their supply lines are also long and hazardous. And most important of all, the Ukrainians, like the German forces at Stalingrad, are in danger of being surrounded or cut off from their supply lines. The picture above is probably very familiar to anyone who has studied World War Two. It shows recently promoted Field Marshall Paulus with his chief of staff, General Schmidt, surrendering to the Russians at Stalingrad. I think the Russians would view the surrender of an army in the field a good outcome. Whether it will happen or not is anyone’s guess.
Alyosha Crew Honoured
The crew of the tank that recently destroyed eight Ukrainian tanks/armoured vehicles has been honoured by Putin who presented them with ‘heroes of Russia’ stars.
Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin Dead?
A private plane carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin (manager of the Wagner group) and Dmitry Utkin (Leading Wagner General) exploded in mid air over the Tver region of Russia (in between Moscow and St Petersburg) on August 23rd. It has been assumed that both Wagner men died in the crash along with eight others according to Pravda. Ivan Sabula, an experienced investigator, has been entrusted with task of establishing the cause of the crash. Other members of Wagner are thought to have been on board. I will not speculate about who was responsible because there are too many unknowns but I will venture an opinion that it is unlikely to have been conducted by the Russian administration. If it had the desire to eliminate these people it would not have done so in its own backyard and it would not have done so at the height of the BRICS conference. But I could be wrong. For those who would like an in depth study and analysis based on what is known so far Simplicius provides it here. I should say that at the time of writing the badly burned bodies on the plane have not been identified.
F16s (Again)
It looks as though the US has approved the transfer F16s to Ukraine from Denmark and Holland - once the pilots have been trained. It is thought that the pilots will be mercenaries rather than Ukrainians but I don’t know how long the training will take. At this stage it is not known how many of these F16s will be sent to Ukraine. Denmark has insisted that the jets should be used only on Ukrainian territory which is either naïve or disingenuous. Colonel Doug MacGregor has pointed out that the F16s will need an airborne warning and control system to guide them to targets. They will also need a maintenance infrastructure and runways free of debris. MacGregor also informs us that none of the airfields in Ukraine are long enough to accommodate the F16s. But let us not forget that the Russians have superior airplanes and the best air defence systems in the world. So even when the F16s arrive they will probably make little difference to the conflict.
Gripen Jets
According to Ukraine Pravda, Z has announced that Ukrainian pilots are already training on Swedish Gripen jets. BUT - the Swedish PM said that the country will not be providing the jets. Is this another case of Z’s wishful thinking, I wonder.
Ballistic Missiles
The US has said that it will not be able to supply long range ballistic missiles to Ukraine in sufficient quantities to make a difference to the outcome of the war. It is also reluctant to do so for fear of escalating the conflict (or so it says). Germany has also been reluctant to hand Ukraine ‘Taurus’ missiles. These have a range of 310 miles. In a survey, only 36% of German citizens are in favour of sending the missiles whilst 52% are firmly against.
Get the Hell Out of Belarus
The US has advised its citizens to leave Belarus immediately, according to RT - though it is not at all clear why this advice is being given. The article also refers to the closure of border crossings into Belarus by Lithuania which appears to be linked to the decision.
Polish Dead
A Polish publication called Mysl Polska is reporting that 10,000 Polish soldiers have lost their lives during the SMO. If you add the ‘traditional’ 3 x 10,000 wounded, that amounts to a dent in Polish military might.
You’re Not Wanted Here
Indian students are facing outright hostility in Ukraine as they try to complete their medical studies. Ukrainians, who believe that India is supporting Russia, are asking the students to leave and some stores are refusing to sell them supplies.
Ukrainian Amputees
Colonel Doug MacGregor reckons that Ukraine has suffered between 40,000 and 50,000 amputees (along with 400,000 dead) which is alarming.
Ukrainian Desertions
I have seen a number of reports of Ukrainians surrendering or refusing to fight in recent weeks. Sputnik reported that on August 16th 500 Ukrainians fled the battlefield on the Zaporizhzhe front - but not in the direction of the Russians.
Ukraine Terror Attacks
Ukraine continued its rocket and artillery attacks on purely civilian targets in various districts of Donetsk and Kherson region. Donetsk, in particular, has been hit hard this week with cluster bombs. Among the targets have been residential buildings, hospitals and grocery stores.
Ukraine losses for 24 Days in August
Ukie losses during the first 24 days of August.
Personnel 17,370 (KIA and WIA - I think); Tanks 62; IFVs 368; Trucks 410; Artillery 346; Ammo Dumps 52
The Air War
Ukraine Missile/Drone Attacks
The White House has criticised Ukraine’s policy of attacking Crimea with drone strikes directed at civilian infrastructure (and civilians). This is a waste of resources, a Washington spokesman said. I don’t think it occurred to the White House that this could also be a war crime! I have not included the drone attacks under ‘Ukraine Terror Attacks’ even though most of them are. I am trying to avoid duplication. It is evident from the following reports that the Ukrainian drone strikes have increased substantially this week. They want an optics ‘victory’ to compensate for their sad failures on the battlefield.
Crimea
On 19th August a modified S-200 surface to air missile (see above image) was launched against Crimea but was shot down. On the 21st, two drones were electronically disabled 24 miles north west of the Crimean peninsular: they fell harmlessly into the Black Sea. On the 24th August the Ukrainians were more successful. According to The Military Chronicle:
In Crimea, Ukrainian troops, as a result of a combined strike, hit an S-300 air defense system in the area of Cape Tarkhankut, presumably from a boat armed with high-precision Brimstone II missiles.
According to Slavyangrad:
Four boats with Ukrainian saboteurs were destroyed near Cape Tarkhankut in the west of Crimea. Russian security forces eliminated the DRG at sea at about four in the morning. Members of this group previously opened fire on a campsite with people in Olenevka, according to the Shot Telegram channel. According to preliminary data, about 15-20 people were liquidated in total. There is no official information
It appears that these two incidents are connected. The DRG group may or may not have hit the S-300 system but they did carry out an attack before being eliminated. The Military Chronicle (and othere) are reporting on the heroism of a local resident at Tarkhankut who shot at a small group of Ukrainians attempting to land at Olenevka. They all fled back to the sea according to this report. It’s a good story but I’m not sure whether it’s true.
On the 25th August, 42 drones were launched against Crimea but all were either shot down or disables electronically before they could cause damage.
Novgorod
On the 19th August, a drone was shot down by small arms fire at an airport in Veliky, Novgorod, causing a fire which was quickly extinguished and damaging a plane. There were no casualties.
Kursk
A drone attack damaged a railway station in Kursk on August 20th causing slight injuries to five people.
Belgorod
Three drones were shot down over Belgorod on August 20th: there was no damage and no casualties. On August 21st, the Russians shot down a drone over Belgorod but there were no casualties. However, on the 23rd August three people were killed by drones according to RT. It appears that Belgorod is suffering more than many other places in Russia (apart from Donetsk, perhaps) having to endure artillery/drones strikes along with the occasional ‘commando’ raid from across the border. Another drone was shot down on the 25th.
Rostov
On August 20th, three more drones were disabled by electronic means in Rostov area. The following day, the Russians destroyed several modified S-200 missiles that were aimed at the commercial airport at Millerovo near Rostov on Don.
Moscow
On August 20th one drone which tried to fly over Moscow was shot down. The next day two drones flying over Moscow were disabled by electronic means. Two drones were shot down about 12 miles outside Moscow at Krasnogorsk on the 22nd, according to RT, Some damage was caused to buildings and cars from the falling debris. On August 23rd a drone caused damage to the Neva Tower in Moscow City district while another hit a building under construction in the business district. No casualties have been recorded.
Kaluga
Kaluga district was also attacked on the 21st August, but all drones were destroyed/disabled before they could cause any damage. Another drone was shot down on the 23rd and on the 24th a modified S-200 missile was shot down according to the Russian MoD. On the 25th the Ukrainians launched another drone which was shot down.
Bryansk
On August 23rd two drones were shot down by air defences over the Bryansk region. They caused no damage or casualties.
Russian Drone/Missile Attacks
Chirnihiv
Russian missiles attacked Chirnihiv city centre, north of Kiev (Map) on August 20th. A German newspaper reported that seven people were killed and 144 injured. Some sort of festival was taking place, apparently. Ukrainian sources are saying that a drone festival was being held in the theatre that was attacked. Colonel Cassad is reporting that the theatre was host to a Command and Control meeting in which more than 38 fighters and commanders (Ukrainian, foreign and NATO) were killed. Cassad estimates the dead at around 54 but this will inevitably increase as people are found beneath the rubble. Senior officers and a general are thought to be among those badly wounded and flown by helicopter to Kiev.
Dnipro
Russian missiles destroyed three railway cars full of ammunition here on August 21st according to Pravda. The railway station and the bus station were attacked again on the 23rd August, according to Slavyangrad.
Odessa
Port facilities at Reni and Izmail were attacked by Russian missiles on August 23rd hitting production and trans-shipment complexes. On the same day the Russian MoD reported that it has ‘launched a long-range sea- and ground-based high-precision group strike against a decision-making centres (sic) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The goal of the attack has been reached. The facility has been neutralised’. But they don’t say which decision making centre was attacked. The MoD reported that more ‘port facilities’ were neutralised on the 25th August but again they didn’t say where. But I am assuming it was somewhere in Odesa.
The Ground War
The Ultimate Sitrep?
‘unimperator’ posted a link on the MoA to a Sitrep by Marat Khairullin which is one of the best I’ve seen. It is long and detailed for those who want to know the real state of affairs in places such as Rabotino and Urozhaine. Here it is for anyone who may have missed it and wants more detail than I provide.
MoD Weekly KIA Stats
I cannot use the Russian MoD reports to estimate how many Ukrainians have been KIA because some of the figures provided this week did not differentiate between killed and wounded. But I would guess that the Ukrainians have suffered fewer casualties this week than they did last week.
Friendly Shells
Sputnik is reporting that 20% of shells and cluster munitions employed in the Rabotino direction have failed to explode, probably because they have been stored for too long or in poor conditions. This demonstrates the extent to which the West is scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Maroon
It appears that at least two of the Ukrainian brigades now fighting at Rabotino - i.e. the 82nd and the 47th - are part of the NATO trained Maroon group - according to the Military Chronicle. It is not clear whether other brigades that are part of this group are still being held in reserve. Many commentators take the view that there are no reserves left. Colonel MacGregor is keeping an open mind on the issue. If I were a Russian field commander, I would be making an assumption that the enemy still has reserves.
The Fronts
Kupyansk
On August 21st, the "Western" group of Russian forces continued to storm Ukrainian positions in the area of Sinkivka where a Ukrainian group defending the left (east) bank of the Oskil river is almost completely cut off according to Slavyangrad and a large scale Russian move in this area is imminent. But statements about the operational encirclement and the imminent liberation of the village are premature, according to the Military Chronicle. In spite of reinforcements from the 95th Airborne Brigade, the Ukrainian positions in this direction are deteriorating - so fast that the mayor of Kupyansk and his administration have left the city. Kupyansk straddles the Oskil river and some say the Ukrainians have blown up bridges on the east side of the settlement to halt the Russian advance. But others claim that the Russians are responsible for blowing the bridges. The Russian MoD has been reporting on Ukrainian counter-attacks for most of the week including 4 that were repelled on August 25th.
Rabotino
Ukrainian forces continue to attack Rabotino this week with heavy losses in men and materiel. On August 21st the Ukrainians held the north of the village while the Russians clung on to the south. The Russian MoD reported that five separate attacks by the well equipped 82nd brigade were repelled this day. On the 22nd Boris Rozhin reported that control of the village was shared 50-50 by each side. But by the end of the week the Ukrainians had inched their way to the south of the village - which has been almost completely destroyed (see photo above). One Ukrainian report claimed on 25th August that the Ukrainians had captured the whole village and are now anticipating an advance towards Melitipol. This is confirmed by the Military Chronicle which reported that the Ukrainians brought in 83 units of equipment (armoured vehicles and tanks presumably) in order to take the village and advance southwards.
This village had a population of 480 before the war. The Ukrainians have employed more than ten brigades comprising up to 30,000 men in their bid to take it for the best part of three months. They have paid dearly for their efforts. Now they have built up forces for an advance in the direction of Tokmak from Rabotino and towards Verbovoye in order to create a threat from the rear of the Russian forces in Novopokrovka and Novokarlovka. But the Russians will be ready for them. The next week could see a Ukrainian advance or a total catastrophe. I should say that at least one report suggests that the whole village has not yet been captured.
Artemovsk
Ukrainian attacks on the flanks of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) have all failed this week - according to Boris Rozhin.
Vremyevsky
The Ukrainians have so far failed to advance beyond the outskirts of the town of Urozhayne this week and by August 24th the whole settlement was in the grey zone. The Ukrainian have been attacking near Priyutne and in the direction of Staromlynivka but without success - so far. Ukrainian attempts to dislodge Russian troops from the forest belts east of the village have all failed.
Kherson
Fighting in this area consists mainly of artillery duels and each side is seeking to gain control over small islands in the river Dniepr. Ukrainian forces are attempting to form a bridgehead on the left bank but all their attacks have been repelled.
The Economic War
Republicans Want Accountability on Ukraine Funding
Biden’s latest $24 billions aid package to Ukraine may face some scrutiny from Republicans in congress - according to Sputnik. From what I have read, unfortunately, there is insufficient opposition to the Ukrainian aid so it is likely to pass. I really, really hope I’m wrong.
Russia Overtakes Germany
According to Vladimir Putin, quoting the World Bank, Russia has overtaken Germany to become the world’s 5th largest economy in terms of purchasing power. But this is only one measure of economic strength: according to other measures Russia is not in the top ten. But who knows which measure most accurately assesses economic strength. When addressing BRICS by video link Putin also advised that the BRICS economies outperform the G7 in terms of purchasing power .
APEC
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group has been meeting in Seattle since July 29th with the final sessions taking place on August 21st. Marat Berdyev, Russia’s senior official at APEC, told Sputnik that the United States has used the APEC conference to engage in anti-Russian rhetoric and withheld visas from some Russian delegates who were therefore unable to attend some sessions. He accused the US of ramping up its efforts to replace inclusive collaboration in the Indo-Pacific region with the Western-centric formats.
We see the buildup of US efforts to replace the inclusive nature of cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region with Western-centric formats of interaction in line with the American 'Indo-Pacific' project," Berdyev said. "We are convinced that the new dividing lines in the Asian region will create barriers to the practical ties between the APEC economies and the normal functioning of added value chains.
Berdyev also said:
The countries of the world's majority are reducing the share of 'toxic' currencies (first of all, the US dollar and the euro) in their foreign trade and financial transactions…This trend is caused by the sanctions 'voluntarism' of the collective West, which, with its unilateral and illegitimate restrictive measures, has undermined confidence in the American-centric financial system’
He talked about the role of national currencies, as opposed to the dollar, in conducting future global financial transactions - which is something that was also discussed at the BRICS Summit in South Africa.
World Politics
Poor Old Scholtz
The German Chancellor is not a popular man according to a recent German poll giving him a 30% approval rating, which is little better than that of his government at only 20%.
Iranian Military Delegation In Moscow
The delegation met with Russian counterparts this week to discuss:
….issues of military cooperation and interaction aimed at implementing projects, the goals of which were improvement of the combat readiness of the armed forces of both countries…
Oleg Salyukov, Commander in Chief of the Russian armed forces, said that Iran ‘is Russia's strategic partner, and constant intensive political dialogue is a characteristic feature of the current stage of our partnership’.
I’m not sure what this means in practice but I suspect that the West will not be at all pleased.
Anti-Fascist Conference Minsk
Thirty countries attended the second anti-fascist conference in Minsk. Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko highlighted the West’s support for fascism in Ukraine as a means of creating a war between it and Russia in a bid to retain its global hegemony.
The Emerging Multi-Polar World Order
15th BRICS Summit - Johannesburg 22nd-24th August
BRICS has the capacity to assist in the creation of a multi-polar world order as a replacement for the US Empire (AKA the Evil Empire). But the Evil Empire will not sit idly by and let it happen. It will use every nasty trick available to it in order to strangle the RoW toddler in its cradle. BRICS itself is not without its teething problems, including quite deep seated antagonisms between India and China over a border dispute. It is not guaranteed to succeed by any means.
There has been talk of a BRICS currency which some say is too ambitious but there has been a move towards trading in local currencies rather than the dollar (see below).
It is without doubt the most important summit yet, according to Alexander Mercouris of the Duran. Lavrov attended in Putin’s stead due to the ‘arrest warrant’ that the ICC has placed on the Russian President. He was given a great welcome.
On August 23rd South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said, in relation to expansion:
We have agreed on the matter of expansion. We have a document that we've adopted which sets out guidelines and principles, processes for considering countries that wish to become members of BRICS....That's very positive…
On August 24th it was announced that Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE will become affiliate members of the BRICS until they attain full membership on January 1st 2024.
Addressing the Summit, Xi Jinping clearly stated that BRICS countries will function as active mediators to de-escalate tensions between countries generated by disagreements. ‘BRICS member states should provide assistance to each other in solving issues concerning mutual interests’, the Chinese leader declared.
At a meeting with BRICS leaders Putin said:
Russia has decided to support the people who are fighting for their culture, for their traditions, for their language and for their future. Our actions in Ukraine have only one reason - to put an end to the war that was unleashed by the West and their satellites in Ukraine against the people living in Donbass.
It was the West’s desire to maintain global hegemony that led to the nine years of conflict in Ukraine, Putin said. The West was responsible for the 2014 coup in Ukraine, he suggested, then unleashed a war against those (i.e. in the Donbass) who did not agree with the coup.
Putin congratulated Modi on successfully landing a vehicle on the moon. They celebrated in India:
Around 15 countries are expected to join the BRICS development bank which will impose no conditions when it starts lending (unlike the IMF).
At a plenary session Brazil’s Lula Da Silva stressed that:
The Ukrainian conflict demonstrates the limited abilities of the United Nations Security Council. Brazil is ready to join efforts in order to provide for the effective and immediate ceasefire [between the conflicting parties] and achieve a just and lasting truce. Brazil is not considering unilateral peace formulas in Ukraine.
Much of the rhetoric at the conference suggests that BRICS aims to take over many of the functions currently performed by the West and its institutions but will do so in a non-oppressive manner that has respect for the culture, traditions and sovereignty of nations.
Here are some of the main points agreed at the Summit:
Reform UN to make it more democratic and more inclusive by involving developing countries.
Encourage use of local currencies in transactions (as opposed to the dollar).
Progress must be made towards the achievement of a fair and market-oriented agricultural trading system, ending hunger, achieving food security and improved nutrition. (For a full list look here.)
West Africa
ECOWAS has not intervened militarily in Niger as yet but it has, apparently, fixed a date for intervention, according to RT. Meanwhile, people are joining the army in Niger - and Mali is getting ready to support its neighbour militarily. ECOWAS’s army is only 25,000 strong - so I have heard - and more than 50,000 citizens of Niger have volunteered to join the army. Recep Erdogan has described the proposed use of force as ‘unacceptable’ and insists that the dispute should be settled peacefully. Erdogan said:
“I do not find the decision of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) right to intervene militarily in Niger. Military intervention in Niger would mean spreading instability to many African countries…the people of Niger will take care of democracy and go to the elections as soon as possible.”
The African Union has suspended Niger due to the coup, according to Al Jazeera. But the AU is against military action against the country. Niger is allowing troops from Burkina Faso and Mali to enter its country in order to resist any incursions by ECOWAS forces. So it’s all on a knife’s edge. But as I said last week, there will be much jaw jaw before any conflict begins - hopefully!
Well that’s all for this quite eventful week - which means that the presentation may be slightly longer than usual. Many thanks for you views, subscriptions, likes and kind comments.
Best Wishes
Rob
Many thanks to karlofi on the MoA for providing a link to this striking photograph taken at the Kursk celebrations.
Speculation is justified guesswork just as knowledge is justified belief.
Stalingrad: DM Glantz & JM House University Press Kansas (2017).
Thanks Rob - great article and much appreciated.