Thank you so much for all the work you do to keep us all informed.
I see that the BBC and the British are up in arms after Nigel Farage made the comment that the West provoked the current conflict in Ukraine, which is admitting the truth. Also see The Postil Magazine
1993: The Barry R. Posen Plan for War on Russia via Zombie State Ukraine, February 1, 2023 Mendelssohn Moses which shows that the West has been planning this conflict for a long time. MoA also shows that Britain, and I am certain with USA support, are still at it in Macedonia - MI6 Coup in Macedonia Unravels.
It seems that reality is leading to Western European countries to resume trade with Russia as they can't rely on the USA - a recent peakprosperity.com interview 'The Fed Is Getting Ready To Torch The Dollar' says that the US shale gas is on the cusp of peaking and will be in rapid decline in a year or two. In addition they suggest that the US no longer honours contracts they sign and no-one should believe anything they promise. Art Burman has already called the US oil shale just about past its peak Arthur Berman: "Shale Oil and the Slurping Sound” Episode 101, Dec 13, 2023 on The Great Simplification website.
Congratulations to the Houthi, although I dislike the deaths of 3 sailors, for sinking another ship and there by putting more stress on Europe to come to their senses and break away from the US empire.
Such a terrible shame that Rishi Sunak seems to be going to loose the British election - some polls suggest the Tories will be down to 50 seats and Sunak will lose his - he will probably cry all the way to his $7+ million house in California. The Labour Party will win, but as they are now right Thatcher, that is no help to the British people - report of 50% of children in poverty in Birmingham.
Maybe if Britain stops spending money and resources fighting around the world and overthrowing elected governments, it will be able to feed some of their own children.
Counterpunch had a really good article on the US using torture by Jeffrey St. Clair, "The man from quiet room 4."
"Whether the alliance will materialise as a phenomenon that could contribute to positive changes, remains to be seen."
It already had. As some of the analysts has pointed out, it completely changes the nature of the Pacific region. It rules out any attacks on North Korea by the US or South Korea or Japan because such an attack will now involve Russia.
It alters the strategic posture of South Korea and Japan because the delivery of advanced missile technology from Russia to NK places both those countries at a strategic disadvantage.
Scott Ritter said Russia did this independently of China and in essence against China. He's wrong. The advantage the Chinese get out of this is that if China has a problem with North Korea in the future, both parties can call on Russia to mediate. China will see this as an advantage. Also, Russia's involvement reduces China's involvement in maintaining North Korea's stability so things get out of hand, which is also to China's advantage. North Korea has been a headache for China which is now less of an issue.
North Korea will benefit from trade with Russia and (indirectly through trade with Russia) from BRICS. Their economy will get better as will their military defenses.
What is happening is that China and Russia are essentially "surrounding" the West in every area of the world, from the Middle East to Africa to South America to Asia. By building alliances, military and otherwise,. with regional powers, Russia and China are forcing the US to reconsider its military moves, because any move the US makes might be compromised by someone in the region other than the US' direct target. As Garland Nixon put, if the US moves against one small country, another regional power might stab the US in the back militarily, making military strategic a much more complicated game for the US.
Meanwhile, Israel will either implode or it will have to attack Hezbollah. The US has now told Lebanon that it will support Israel directly if that happens. I've been saying for 18 years that this was going to happen as a prelude to war with Iran. Everyone told me I was crazy. Those losers can now suck it. Of course, none of them will ever admit they were wrong.
As I commented over at Antiwar.com, Netanyahu is acting like a "suicide by cop" mental patient. He knows if he doesn't bring the US in on Israel's side directly in the war, he will lose both the Gaza war and the Hezbollah war, he will go to jail and Israel will collapse. People in that position have nothing to lose, so they go for broke.
Meanwhile, the crazies in the Israeli and US governments are ignorant, irrational psychopaths with no perception of reality, so they still believe they can prevail. So the escalation will continue, both in Ukraine and the Middle East.
It's gonna be a long, hot summer - maybe for years.
"China will see this as an advantage." I agree very much so.
"Russia and China are forcing the US to reconsider its military moves, " and agree with that too. In minor ways so far, yet that in itself is significant given the stranglehold the US empire used to have everywhere.
eg exiting the western noose are nations like Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Yemen, Egypt (eventually), Lebanon, with Syria, Iraq & Afghanistan (obviously), Qatar, Kuwait, Georgia, with potentially Hungary & Serbia & Slovakia (eventually) Columbia, Sri Lanka, and more likely is Turkey as well. Plus many across Africa and sth America too. Possibly all of ASEAN eventually despite Marcos Jnr.
Adding to all of this is the fact that China dominates in most resources extraction, metals refining and consumption globally. And then manufacturing. The US & EU tariffs on RE/EV imports from China is like shooting yourself in the head economically going forward. But then globally none of this is sustainable anyway. Therefore War.
I saw a t-shirt “give fascism the boot” in a London vintage shop.
My immediate thought was add a line,
“Vote Trump”. His first term proved he was not a fascist and followed court rulings. Unfortunately he is constantly accused of being one. It reminds me of accusations / demonization of Putin.
I meant to say: i presume the Ukrainians in the eastern oblasts get no say on their future. No mention of their voice in the peace conference. Starmer in his recent pronouncements over Scotland in the UK seems to forget the right to self determination is universal and inalienable. Lets hope he remembers the East Ukrainians have a right to decide their future- which they have done repeatedly.
When you look at the Ukrainian lines on the maps you can see lots of little salients forming. You can see the Russian temptation to envelop the lot in a pincer movement.
Agreed re China and North Korea: Putin is far too shrewd to have entered agreement with N. Korea without the prior agreement of China. Would he imperil his relationship with China over N Korea?- doubtful. An interesting angle is that whilst NATO will not directly enter the war in Ukraine, N Korean troops can, in theory, in accordance with the agreement. Hezbollah's threat to Cyprus is also interesting. Cyprus is not in NATO. The British bases in Cyprus are probably covered under Article 5. It opens the scenario that Russia can open a front using Hesbollah as a proxy against western interests without directly attacking western NATO assets. Cyprus is used against Russia and Lebanon. There's interesting articles about landownership in Cyprus. I hadnt realised lots of Israelis are buying up Cyprus.
Of course, Cyprus contains lots of Turks as well as Greeks so Erdogan will not approve of the Israelis using it as a launchpad for attacks on Hezbollah.
re "The pact is meant to ward off future aggression by Russia but it is not backed up by anything such as Article 5 of the UN charter..."
I suspect you mean the Nato Charter, it's a typo. And, I haven't seen these dozens of bilateral 10 yr security agreements as meant to ward off Russia, I think they are done to convince Ukr they still do support it long term, stops Ukr from shaking the Nato tree so hard, and it creates the ability to leave Nato membership on the shelf (gets the pressure off themselves) and it will allow any Nato nation or small group to actually take military action in Ukr against Russia without any need to even look at Article 5 and it's possible implications upon others. In particular it completely rules out any need for unanimous Nato decisions being made.
So to me these benefits of bilateral agreements are internal introspective benefits with little to do in 'threatening Russia' more. What do you think?
I also think they are weak bs agreements ... more talk no action beyond providing more arms and ammunition. imho the more Nato crow the weaker they secretly realise they are, and trying to compensate for that. I cannot believe that Hungary is that isolated within nato with it's views. I think the whole thing has been used to cover up and distract from much more severe critical issues across the west with economics finance and energy supply that is heading toward collapse (running short). That RE is not a viable energy electricity solution is well known by elites/govts now, and this is being covered up by war rhetoric against russia and china and with sanctions / tariffs. Plus US shale oil/gas (and exports) has a very short use-by date before falling off a cliff. But we'll see.
Thanks for that: I've altered it to NATO. Yes I agree that these bilateral agreements are just for show. I don't have the space to elaborate on such things or the Update would be twice as long.
Thank you so much for all the work you do to keep us all informed.
I see that the BBC and the British are up in arms after Nigel Farage made the comment that the West provoked the current conflict in Ukraine, which is admitting the truth. Also see The Postil Magazine
1993: The Barry R. Posen Plan for War on Russia via Zombie State Ukraine, February 1, 2023 Mendelssohn Moses which shows that the West has been planning this conflict for a long time. MoA also shows that Britain, and I am certain with USA support, are still at it in Macedonia - MI6 Coup in Macedonia Unravels.
I also not in MoA that the Banderite/Azov/Nazi of Ukraine are lined up behind the poor conscripts at the front line to shoot any who retreat thus proving the Nazis are the real cowards who say they are Ukrainian heroes but refuse to do the fighting https://www.theamericanconservative.com/azov-leader-admits-to-ukrainian-use-of-blocking-detachments/
It seems that reality is leading to Western European countries to resume trade with Russia as they can't rely on the USA - a recent peakprosperity.com interview 'The Fed Is Getting Ready To Torch The Dollar' says that the US shale gas is on the cusp of peaking and will be in rapid decline in a year or two. In addition they suggest that the US no longer honours contracts they sign and no-one should believe anything they promise. Art Burman has already called the US oil shale just about past its peak Arthur Berman: "Shale Oil and the Slurping Sound” Episode 101, Dec 13, 2023 on The Great Simplification website.
Congratulations to the Houthi, although I dislike the deaths of 3 sailors, for sinking another ship and there by putting more stress on Europe to come to their senses and break away from the US empire.
Such a terrible shame that Rishi Sunak seems to be going to loose the British election - some polls suggest the Tories will be down to 50 seats and Sunak will lose his - he will probably cry all the way to his $7+ million house in California. The Labour Party will win, but as they are now right Thatcher, that is no help to the British people - report of 50% of children in poverty in Birmingham.
Maybe if Britain stops spending money and resources fighting around the world and overthrowing elected governments, it will be able to feed some of their own children.
Counterpunch had a really good article on the US using torture by Jeffrey St. Clair, "The man from quiet room 4."
Cheers for that.
https://www.rand.org/search.html?q=russia also exposes the decades of manipulative PR propaganda rhetoric and the long term planning involved
"Whether the alliance will materialise as a phenomenon that could contribute to positive changes, remains to be seen."
It already had. As some of the analysts has pointed out, it completely changes the nature of the Pacific region. It rules out any attacks on North Korea by the US or South Korea or Japan because such an attack will now involve Russia.
It alters the strategic posture of South Korea and Japan because the delivery of advanced missile technology from Russia to NK places both those countries at a strategic disadvantage.
Scott Ritter said Russia did this independently of China and in essence against China. He's wrong. The advantage the Chinese get out of this is that if China has a problem with North Korea in the future, both parties can call on Russia to mediate. China will see this as an advantage. Also, Russia's involvement reduces China's involvement in maintaining North Korea's stability so things get out of hand, which is also to China's advantage. North Korea has been a headache for China which is now less of an issue.
North Korea will benefit from trade with Russia and (indirectly through trade with Russia) from BRICS. Their economy will get better as will their military defenses.
What is happening is that China and Russia are essentially "surrounding" the West in every area of the world, from the Middle East to Africa to South America to Asia. By building alliances, military and otherwise,. with regional powers, Russia and China are forcing the US to reconsider its military moves, because any move the US makes might be compromised by someone in the region other than the US' direct target. As Garland Nixon put, if the US moves against one small country, another regional power might stab the US in the back militarily, making military strategic a much more complicated game for the US.
Meanwhile, Israel will either implode or it will have to attack Hezbollah. The US has now told Lebanon that it will support Israel directly if that happens. I've been saying for 18 years that this was going to happen as a prelude to war with Iran. Everyone told me I was crazy. Those losers can now suck it. Of course, none of them will ever admit they were wrong.
As I commented over at Antiwar.com, Netanyahu is acting like a "suicide by cop" mental patient. He knows if he doesn't bring the US in on Israel's side directly in the war, he will lose both the Gaza war and the Hezbollah war, he will go to jail and Israel will collapse. People in that position have nothing to lose, so they go for broke.
Meanwhile, the crazies in the Israeli and US governments are ignorant, irrational psychopaths with no perception of reality, so they still believe they can prevail. So the escalation will continue, both in Ukraine and the Middle East.
It's gonna be a long, hot summer - maybe for years.
Thanks for that Richard.
"China will see this as an advantage." I agree very much so.
"Russia and China are forcing the US to reconsider its military moves, " and agree with that too. In minor ways so far, yet that in itself is significant given the stranglehold the US empire used to have everywhere.
eg exiting the western noose are nations like Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Yemen, Egypt (eventually), Lebanon, with Syria, Iraq & Afghanistan (obviously), Qatar, Kuwait, Georgia, with potentially Hungary & Serbia & Slovakia (eventually) Columbia, Sri Lanka, and more likely is Turkey as well. Plus many across Africa and sth America too. Possibly all of ASEAN eventually despite Marcos Jnr.
Adding to all of this is the fact that China dominates in most resources extraction, metals refining and consumption globally. And then manufacturing. The US & EU tariffs on RE/EV imports from China is like shooting yourself in the head economically going forward. But then globally none of this is sustainable anyway. Therefore War.
I saw a t-shirt “give fascism the boot” in a London vintage shop.
My immediate thought was add a line,
“Vote Trump”. His first term proved he was not a fascist and followed court rulings. Unfortunately he is constantly accused of being one. It reminds me of accusations / demonization of Putin.
I agree - he's no fascist.
I meant to say: i presume the Ukrainians in the eastern oblasts get no say on their future. No mention of their voice in the peace conference. Starmer in his recent pronouncements over Scotland in the UK seems to forget the right to self determination is universal and inalienable. Lets hope he remembers the East Ukrainians have a right to decide their future- which they have done repeatedly.
Well done Rob - I know how long such serious and accurate compilations take.
When you look at the Ukrainian lines on the maps you can see lots of little salients forming. You can see the Russian temptation to envelop the lot in a pincer movement.
Agreed re China and North Korea: Putin is far too shrewd to have entered agreement with N. Korea without the prior agreement of China. Would he imperil his relationship with China over N Korea?- doubtful. An interesting angle is that whilst NATO will not directly enter the war in Ukraine, N Korean troops can, in theory, in accordance with the agreement. Hezbollah's threat to Cyprus is also interesting. Cyprus is not in NATO. The British bases in Cyprus are probably covered under Article 5. It opens the scenario that Russia can open a front using Hesbollah as a proxy against western interests without directly attacking western NATO assets. Cyprus is used against Russia and Lebanon. There's interesting articles about landownership in Cyprus. I hadnt realised lots of Israelis are buying up Cyprus.
Of course, Cyprus contains lots of Turks as well as Greeks so Erdogan will not approve of the Israelis using it as a launchpad for attacks on Hezbollah.
Hi Rob, thanks good summary.
re "The pact is meant to ward off future aggression by Russia but it is not backed up by anything such as Article 5 of the UN charter..."
I suspect you mean the Nato Charter, it's a typo. And, I haven't seen these dozens of bilateral 10 yr security agreements as meant to ward off Russia, I think they are done to convince Ukr they still do support it long term, stops Ukr from shaking the Nato tree so hard, and it creates the ability to leave Nato membership on the shelf (gets the pressure off themselves) and it will allow any Nato nation or small group to actually take military action in Ukr against Russia without any need to even look at Article 5 and it's possible implications upon others. In particular it completely rules out any need for unanimous Nato decisions being made.
So to me these benefits of bilateral agreements are internal introspective benefits with little to do in 'threatening Russia' more. What do you think?
I also think they are weak bs agreements ... more talk no action beyond providing more arms and ammunition. imho the more Nato crow the weaker they secretly realise they are, and trying to compensate for that. I cannot believe that Hungary is that isolated within nato with it's views. I think the whole thing has been used to cover up and distract from much more severe critical issues across the west with economics finance and energy supply that is heading toward collapse (running short). That RE is not a viable energy electricity solution is well known by elites/govts now, and this is being covered up by war rhetoric against russia and china and with sanctions / tariffs. Plus US shale oil/gas (and exports) has a very short use-by date before falling off a cliff. But we'll see.
Thanks for that: I've altered it to NATO. Yes I agree that these bilateral agreements are just for show. I don't have the space to elaborate on such things or the Update would be twice as long.
Oops, sorry, yes, I'll be more succinct in future to help. TY
You don't have to be succinct at all - your comments are welcome but forgive me if I don't engage with them in detail.