Welcome to all new viewers and subscribers as well as those who have been with me for a while. Thanks for your likes, subscriptions and comments. Can I say that this Update was confined to family and friends for more than a year. Its purpose is to provide an Update on the Ukraine war (viewed in the wider sense) to those who don’t have the time or the inclination to follow events in detail. My Update is based on my interpretation of what I have read or seen and will exclude some things that I have missed or deem unimportant but may include some things that are not important to other people. It is by no means a definitive Update but will be useful to some. I provide links that will give people the opportunity to look at some issues in more depth along with a relatively small amount of analysis. However, it is not my intention to spark debate. But I do welcome comments that inform me of mistakes (factual and logical) or make suggestions about what I could have included or should include in future. I am always on the lookout for new sources so would welcome any suggestions from you. Many thanks to Scott Ritter for the cartoon above.
The continued failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive after more than two months is still the main topic of conversation among commentators this week. There is no doubt that the Ukrainians still have men and equipment in reserve that they could use to launch limited offensive operations. But some would argue that the Ukrainians should deploy these forces in a defensive role further west. For their part, the Russians are outdoing the Ukrainians with regard to offensive action in the direction of the important logistics hub that is Kupyansk. This advance is the most important development of the week and could remain so for many weeks to come. Out of spite, or so it appears, the Ukrainians have stepped up their targeting and killing of civilians with their drones and their cluster munitions. The Saudi Peace Summit was the failure all of us thought it would be and preparations are underway for the BRICS Summit on 24th August. In Niger, a president installed by the military regime will have his work cut out to avoid conflict with the West. West Africa stands hovering on a precipice and at this stage no one knows what will happen. It has been an interesting week.
The Great Z - Are His Days Numbered?
This is certainly the question on the lips of many from all sides of the debate at the moment. Western newspapers and pro-Russian commentators are all considering the possibility of Z’s impossibility or, more precisely, his assassination. Jan Gagin, an advisor to Denis Pushilin (head of the DPR), believes that the Great Z is not long for this world. According to Slavyangrad, Gagin believes that the dark media speculation we have seen could be a prelude to the collapse of the Ukrainian regime. I couldn’t get this clip to play but maybe you will have better luck - that’s if you have Telegram. Zero Hedge is reporting from Ukrainian sources that an assassination attempt was made against Z. A woman from southern Ukraine is supposed to have tried to inform the Russians of Z’s location at a particular time so that they could eliminate him with a missile strike. It could be true or it could be false but I find it hard to believe that the Russians would want to eliminate Z at this point because he is doing such a wonderful job for them. But we all know that if Z is assassinated the legacy media will point an accusing finger straight at the Kremlin.
No one really knows where the knives will come from but Z annoyed many of his Western detractors when he claimed that Ukraine is fighting Russia on its own without NATO or Western assistance. He said ‘Russia alleges that it is engaged in a conflict with NATO on Ukrainian soil as a means to pacify its society. This is because they can't fathom how their substantial army hasn't been able to overcome Ukraine on the battlefield..". Given all the aid that has been so obviously and so publicly provided to Ukraine this is an outlandish claim. Z is beginning to sound as if he couldn’t give a damn anymore. In another interview, Z claimed that Ukraine has a ‘sky shield’ that is successfully shooting down Iskanders and Kinzhals by the dozen - thereby protecting its cities. He asks the rest of Europe to contribute to Ukraine’s air defences which would then be able to protect the whole of Europe against Russian ‘terrorism’. He also called for F16s (again). So - in the one quote Z boasts about the Ukrainians fighting alone against the Russians without any Western help and in the next he is claiming that he needs Western help. Such inconsistencies of dialogue are not entirely rational and could not have been written for him by Westerners IMV - so he appears to be going off script.
In an interview with Pravda, military expert, Andrei Koshkin, said that Z has finished playing his role as the West’s puppet: he has become surplus to requirements and is therefore ripe for assassination. Even Larry Johnson is suggesting that Z’s days may be numbered in his recent talk with Judge Napolitano. I should say that there has been much talk of Z’s demise over the past many months but he is still alive and kicking. At a personal level Z must be feeling that he is in some danger and that there is no way out. His recent comments suggest that he has wriggled free of some of the strings from which he is being dangled. Some say he knows things about Biden that give him some control of his situation. But if this is the case, he is in even greater danger of being silenced. Anyway, I wouldn’t mind betting that he now yearns for those days when he was a simple comic.
Ukrainian Losses - After Two Months
According to Slavyangrad.
They have lost nearly 36,000 irreversible personnel (1/4 of all the personnel designed to participate in the counteroffensive), 1,700 armored vehicles, 650 tanks, and nearly 350 artillery systems, and with it too, they have lost billions in dollars of ammunition as a result of pre-emptive strikes of the Russian Aviation Forces, and not to mention what they lost in Odessa.
Two months is roughly 60 days and the Russian MoD is reporting an average of 600-700 Kia a day, so 36,000 could be too low. The MoD ‘clobber list’ probably underestimates casualties since it does not report on those the Ukrainians have suffered when air and missiles forces eliminate artillery units ‘in their firing positions’ (for example). But the report is useful in making day to day comparisons of Ukrainian losses. For a detailed analysis of the Russian MoD clobber list and its shortcomings see Richard Steven Hack here.
I love the phrase ‘irreversible personnel’ which must mean that they can’t return to the battlefield and the estimates for armour losses are the highest I have seen. In view of these losses, the voices that are predicting an early end to the war are getting louder.
Z Calls for Total Mobilisation
Mobilisation has been stepped up in Ukraine employing new methods which involve setting up road blocks and stopping all passing males. Anyone resisting will be shot. So in Ukraine you will be killed for not joining the army or killed after you join. Posted by unimperator MoA August 7th. The link used no longer exists.
Polish/Ukrainian ‘Security Force’
The Ukrainians and the Poles want to set up a ‘security force’ in Western Ukraine which, the Russians fear, will become an occupying force. Sergei Shoigu warned against this as reported in Pravda. I can’t honestly see the Russians allowing such a thing to happen.
Ukraine’s Terror Attacks Increase
The Ukrainians have stepped up their attacks on civilians this week - maybe out of spite or more likely because they must be seen to be doing something to make up for their relative impotence in the ground war. Belgorod and Donetsk City have been hit badly by artillery. 349 shells, including cluster munitions, were launched at Donetsk in one day, killing two and injuring eleven. On another day a four year old child was killed. For anyone who doesn’t know, the shelling of Donetsk City has been going on for nine years. Waste from the Zaporizhe Nuclear Power plant has also been targeted by drones but these were disarmed by the Russians. Schools and residential buildings in Donetsk were targeted again on August 10th with 140 shells being fired in 42 separate attacks. One man was killed by shrapnel on the balcony of his home.
The Sea War1
Kerch
An oil tanker was damaged by Ukrainian drones in Kerch but is still afloat. There were no casualties and no oil spill but the crew was engaged in bailing out water from the engine room for some time according to Tass.
The Air War - Photo Shows a Mig 29.
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
On August 5th the Russians launched a large missile attack on Zhytomyr, Khmelnytsky and Vinnytsia regions. On the 6th August they attacked airfields at Rovno and Khmelnytsky (again) - according to Tass. On the night of the 7th August several Iskander missiles hit the Slvayansk/Kramatorsk conglomeration and the city of Zaporizhe. On the 9th August Kyiv, Khmelnytsky and Kirovograd were among the regions attacked by Russian drone/missile attack according to this Telegram channel though I have no confirmation as yet. The Russians also set an oil depot on fire in Rivne, west of Kiev. On the 11th August, the Russians attacked airports at Khmelnytsky and Kiev. Other areas in the west of Ukraine were also attacked, according to Slavyangrad.
Ukraine Drone Attacks
Moscow was attacked again on August 6th but the single drone was shot down. On August 7th a drone attacked the Druzhba oil pipeline in Orel (or Oryol) oblast north of Kursk but was shot down. The pipeline feeds into Poland, Germany, Czechoslovakia and Hungary. Two more drones were shot down over Moscow on 8th August and on the 9th/10th August, indiscriminate drone attacks on Kaluga, Moscow and Sevastopol were thwarted by Russia’s air defences. Reports are coming in of a drone attack near a hydro-electric facility in Moscow on August 11th. On the same day, 12 drones targeting Crimea were shot down by air defences. Again on August 11th, Zero Hedge reported a warehouse fire west of Moscow which could have been hit by a drone. Overall, these attacks are causing little damage and few casualties which is testimony to the effectiveness of Russia’s air defences.
Stormshadows
Tass is reporting that on August 7th Russia shot down 9 Stormshadows, 4 HIMARS and 14 ‘combat drones’. Apparently, the Ukrainians send the missiles off in ‘batches’ in the hope that one or two will get through as Russian air defences become overworked. And it is true that some get through.
The Ground War (image shows Leopard being attacked)
The Russian MoD is reporting around 700-800 KIA per day which is slightly more than last week, I think. These figures do not include some actions by the Russian air forces that have clearly caused casualties. In this weekly report, I will not be providing the sort of detail you will find on The Military Summary Channel or Weeb but will sometimes make reference to these. I am not really interested that Ukraine has captured another field or village unless it has some important tactical or strategic value. The most movement by either side on the fronts is around Kupyansk (see below). The Ukrainians continue to attack in many places but these are weakening according to some sources, including b on the MoA (Sitrep August 11th).
Kupyansk
The Russian MoD reported on 7th August that in the Kupyansk direction the Russians have advanced 11 km along a front of 3km depth since August 4th. Another MoD report on the 9th suggested that the Russian advances continued in this direction. Kupyansk is an important logistics/rail hub and is key to Ukrainian defences in this area. If it falls, supplies by rail to Slavyansk/Kramatorsk in the south will be interrupted and some believe that the whole defence line could collapse. Moreover, the road to Chuguev and Kharkov will be open for a Russian advance in this direction. MAP. On the 10th August, Dima reported that the Russians are close to capturing the settlement.
Pravda is reporting that Ukrainian troops are being transferred from Krasny Liman to Kharkov - which could indicate deployment to new defensive positions. Ukraine is evacuating 53 settlements in the Kupyansk area (including Kupyansk itself) for fear of Russian 'invasion'. According to DPR governor Denis Pushilin's assistant, Yan Gagin, Russian troops are ready to launch a large scale offensive towards Kupyansk - see The Military Chronicle. So, it looks as if things are starting to happen up north. This is confirmed by Ukrainian commander Syrsky who has been asking Z to reinforce the area because the front is on the verge of collapse. According to the Dreizin Report the Ukrainians have no uncommitted reserves apart from those deployed at the border with Belarus. If this is the case, the Ukrainians will inevitably become overstretched and vulnerable.
Zaporizhzhe - Rabotino
This week the Ukrainians continued to attack towards the village of Rabotino but without success. According to the Military Chronicle the Russians are achieving tactical success here and are regaining ground lost. The situation appears to be fluid - though some reports suggest that the Ukrainians are getting closer. Ukraine needs to capture Rabotino to advance towards the first line of Russia’s defence - otherwise the Russians will be able to attack their right flank. Here's Weeb’s update for 9th August to satisfy those who want some detail. The ultimate Ukrainian objective is Tokmak which is situated to the south of the Surovikin defence Line. Further attacks materialised on the 11th August but these were also repelled.
Bakhmut/Artemovsk
The Ukrainians have been attacking on the southern flank of Bakhmut and at the village of Kleshcheevka the Ukrainians are building up their forces for another attack which hasn’t materialised at the time of writing. The Military Summary Channel reported a counter-attack by the Russians here on the 10th August.
Kherson
The Ukrainians have been attempting to cross the Dnieper in the Kherson area but all of their amphibious attacks have been crushed by the Russians, according to Weeb.
Avdiivka
According to war journalist Murat Khairullin, the Russians have now launched an offensive in the fortified area of Avdiivka, adjacent to Donetsk. According to Khairullin:
The Russian army is confidently moving forward, and this is very indicative for Kyiv, since it considers Avdiivka, Maryinka, Vuhledar to be the most important. There are the best troops, the best weapons, Kiev does not spare artillery and ammunition there.
This means that the entire Ukrainian front is degrading, the forces of the Ukrainian army are being depleted and their defense is bursting at the seams…
Some reports are suggesting that the Ukrainian attacks at Robatino, the Bakhmut flanks and elsewhere have been less intense due to the need to reinforce the Avdiivka front and to push back the Russian bridgehead at Kupyansk.
The Economic War
Indian Funds Frozen
The US has frozen $25 million from Indian companies in Dubai because they are suspected of dealing in Russian diamonds - which will encourage Indians to ditch the dollar soon.
European Gas Prices Surge
According to Zero Hedge, gas prices in Europe have increased by 40% due to a strike by Australian LNG workers. A delay in Norway’s maintenance program has also contributed to the rise but I would have thought that the absence of Russian gas will also impact on the global market price.
US Credit Rating Falls
The US now has a AA+ credit rating rather then the AAA rating it has enjoyed hitherto. This is a little embarrassing for Bidenomics as discussed by the Duran boys here (14 mins).
$13 Billions To Ukraine
According to Sputnik, Biden is seeking approval from congress for another $13 - $23 billions in funding to Ukraine (accounts vary). I would be surprised if congress turned him down even though opposition to the war is growing. Here’s Zelensky waiting for his cheque!
World Politics
West Africa
It appears that ECOWAS is preparing for military intervention in Niger after its demand that the former president be restored was ignored by the coup government. EU and US financial aid has been withdrawn while the coup government has pulled out of military agreements with France. Erdogan has come out in support of the coup government’s decision to stop uranium and gold exports to France. Even Italy’s Giorgia Meloni has had a go at the French. Niger produces about one third of Europe’s supply of uranium. Following the passing of the 6th August deadline there was no agreement among ECOWAS countries about invading. The Nigerian Senate will not agree to its corrupt Prime Minister’s request to invade Niger or cut its electricity off and Algeria (not a member of ECOWAS) is against an invasion which will impact the country negatively along its long border with Niger - according to Slavyangrad.
On 7th August the military coup government appointed a Prime Minister in Niger. In the meantime, France has withdrawn aid to Burkina Faso because it supported the coup in Niger. Mali and Guinea also supported the coup. Victoria Newland visited Niger in a bid to persuade the coup leaders to restore legitimate government but she was not allowed to meet any of the leaders. Her attempts at bribery failed, apparently. Niger will lose hundreds of millions of dollars if they don’t play ball but the coup leaders will not be bribed - according to Pravda.
Delegations from Burkina Faso and Mali visited Niger and declared that any action by ECOWAS would be a declaration of war against their countries. ECOWAS is in a difficult position: if it does not act it risks losing credibility and if it does act this could precipitate a war involving many countries. Even though technically independent, Niger is still under French influence and is now declaring that it is in total control of its own resources. It is also asking US troops to leave. Nigeria has imposed economic sanctions on Niger.
On the 10th August the President of Côte d'Ivoire announced that ECOWAS countries, including Nigeria and Benin, are preparing a force to embark on military operations in Niger. The President made it clear that the rebels will have to back down in order to stop the invading force. I would be very surprised if that happened. It is more likely that the Niger rebels will call ECOWAS’s bluff since they will know that its forces are not strong enough (at this point) to defeat them. An ECOWAS conference is being held in Ghana on Saturday 12th August to discuss military action.
If you would like a brief and simplistic summary that involves some inventive pronunciations have a look at this (6 mins)
This short skit highlights the exploitative nature of France’s relationship with Niger which receives only 5% of profits from the sale of uranium (less than 4 mins).
Ethiopia
There have been clashes between local militias and the National Defence force in Ethiopia because the latter is attempting to take power from the former. Ethiopia is split into several regions, the most populous of which is Amhara. The national government has just imposed curfews in major cities along with a state of emergency which will last for 6 months. I have just read this article from Aljazeera which did not describe things clearly enough for my liking. I’ll try to find a better source by next week.
US Popular Support for Ukraine falls
55% of Americans do not want their government to send weapons to Ukraine. Among Republicans opposition was even greater at 71% ( Poll conducted by SRSR, reported by Zero Hedge).
US Gets Taste of Own Medicine (image from Pravda)
After the US’s incursions into the South China Sea and the Straits of Taiwan its admirals were more than a little taken aback when the Russians and the Chinese conducted joint naval operations in Alaska - according to Pravda. They can give it but they can’t take it.
US Urged Pakistan To Get Rid of Khan
An independent media outlet in the US has reported that the Biden Administration urged Pakistan to get rid of Imran Khan due to his neutral position on Ukraine. The White House became very angry when Khan visited Putin after the start of the SMO - according to Sputnik.
The Jeddah Peace Plan
Two different peace plans were discussed by 30 countries who attended this summit in Saudi Arabia on 5th/6th August. Z’s original unrealistic plan (involving a Russian surrender of Crimea and the Donbass) was discussed along with another plan put forward by the host nation that would involve ‘the preservation of Ukraine’s integrity’; a ceasefire and exchange of prisoners. I am reporting on this for the record but the summit was a waste of people’s time in my view. Brazil, India and China had representatives at the summit. The ‘integrity’ of the old Ukraine has gone forever and I imagine many attending the summit for reasons of political friendship will know this. Tass has a short article on it here or you can see what the Duran boys think of it here. 16 mins. And this is what the Russian ambassador to the US thought of it. There was ‘no diplomatic success’, he said.
The Ukrainian Offensive - Narratives
According to Alexander Mercouris, the WSJ is reporting that Ukraine’s last chance of negotiating on favourable terms has gone along with the dead men who tried to achieve the territorial gains which would have made this possible. The Telegraph is equally pessimistic claiming that a Ukrainian breakthrough against strong Russian forces and defences is ‘unlikely’. CNN also reported a senior Western official saying: ‘[The Ukrainians are] still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,”. But this article still claims to hold out some hope of Ukrainian success as if this has become obligatory after many months of the ‘Ukraine is winning’ narrative. Left wing German politician, Sahra Wagenknecht, has suggested that the failure of Ukraine’s offensive shows that Ukraine cannot win militarily so is calling for negotiations. It appears that more and more people are now accepting the failure of Ukraine’s offensive though some ‘diehards’ will hold out for a while longer.
The Russian Implosion Narrative
Alongside the ‘Ukraine is winning’ narrative of yesteryear we were also subjected to a ‘Russia is imploding’ narrative which suggests that Russia is a very unstable society experiencing massive shortages with an economy always on the verge of collapse and permanent conflict among the Kremlin hierarchy. Russia, according to this narrative, is always running out of something or other. The Valdai Discussion Club explores the ‘implosion narrative’ in this article for anyone who wants some analysis of the phenomenon. With the acknowledgement that Ukraine is unlikely to take any more territory in its counteroffensive the legacy media may ramp up our exposure to the implosion narrative.
Russians Are Not Human?
Pravda is reporting that Ukraine’s spokesperson, Sarah Ashton Cirillo (who is transgender - naturally) has said that Russians are not human but Ukrainians are. In a comment which is very similar to what the Nazis said about the Jews, she or he doesn’t appear to realise that many Ukrainians are Russians.
Russia Heads for the Moon
In spite of their non-human status, the Russians are heading for the moon. The Americans used to do that - remember.
That’s all for this week: a week which came to be dominated by Russia’s advances towards Kupyansk and the perilous situation in Niger. I dare say that I will have much more to say about these things in my next report.
Best Rob
This image is from naval exercises not from the conflict.
Thank you for that. Very exhaustive and very interesting. I'm glad to have it. A good one. :)