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richardstevenhack's avatar

Another great recap.

"According to Scott Ritter..." Who, I believe for the first time, explicitly said that Russia was going to take all of Ukraine, go to Kiev and remove the Ukrainian government, and the Ukrainian state will "cease to exist". - as I've been predicting. He didn't mention putting a Military District in western Ukraine but that's the logical outcome of the preceding.

"Zelensky’s Latest Fantasy Decree" - Ritter covered that, too. He explained that he went to a Ukrainian restaurant in Russia where the wait staff all wore Ukrainian dress. The place was full of Russians.

"Britain needs a ‘citizen army’ - Kinda hard to do when firearms are extremely restricted in the UK - unlike the US where we have militias all over the place armed to the teeth (albeit all infiltrated by the FBI and the ATF).

"Trump" - To paraphrase what we used to say in Federal prison, "Trump ain't gonna bust a goddamn grape."

"South Africa did not secure a ceasefire" - Yes, it did, as Moon of Alabama reports today:

The ICJ Could Not Order A General Ceasefire. It Ordered Israel To Cease Fire.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/01/the-icj-could-not-order-a-general-ceasefire-it-ordered-israel-to-cease-fire.html

In other words, for the legal reason that Hamas is not a state, the court could not order a GENERAL ceasefire. It DID tell Israel to cease killing any more people or harming them and a list of other actions which are de facto a ceasefire. I don't know if the order said anything about Hamas stopping its fighting, as I haven't read it yet (and may not immediately). If it didn't, then in essence it supports the idea that Hamas has a legitimate reason to keep fighting while Israel has to stand down.

Not that it matters, as I've argued before. Everything will continue as it has. Israel and the US will ignore the ICJ.

Ritter made the excellent point with Nixon that the US lost its first actual engagement with Ansar Allah. The US Navy escorted two Maersk Line ships full of US weapons intended for Israel, Ansar Allah fired at them, almost hit them, the two ships turned around and went back, and Maersk Line refuses to ship any more. So Ansar Allah won.

Meanwhile the consensus from most analysts is that Israel will start a larger conflict with Hezbollah in the very near future - probably this coming month. And the pressure is building for the US to directly attack Iran, although the possibility that the US will withdraw its forces from Iraq and Syria might delay that. However, the fact that the US is considering withdrawing is in fact more evidence that the US intends to attack Iran and has already decided to do so, as leaving those forces in those countries during a war with Iran would be suicidal. Biden will spin that as an effort to save US lives, but in reality it's a pre-war move.

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john webster's avatar

Excellent and accurate report.

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