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This week has been eventful in many respects but the single most important ‘event’ (imv) happened at the International Court of Justice where an interim ruling demanded that Israel desist from genocidal activities and allow aid into Gaza (see below). Across the pond, Trump had another great victory in New Hampshire and announced his intention to dismantle the Deep State in 2024: incendiary words. Ukraine committed two massive terrorist attacks: one in a market in Donetsk killing 27 civilians and another in the skies above Belgorod killing 65 Ukrainian POWs in a transport aircraft. On the battlefields of Ukraine the Russians have been increasing the pressure and some areas, such as Avdeevka, are close to collapse while tensions amongst Ukraine’s leaders persists. Westerners have been ramping up the scary narrative which will be coming to a town near you. Following close behind, the Russian hordes, who have a blood lust for Europeans, are slavering at the bit - or so we are being led to believe. Finally, the Houthis, who will be heartened by the court ruling, continue to defy the West thereby increasing the prospects of a full blown Middle East war. Fasten your seat belts because we are in for a bumpy ride. But I’ll start the report with something connected to my Scottish heritage as a ‘never to be trusted’ Campbell.
Russian Matters
Russian Tartan
The tartan was presented to the Russian people in 2007 by the Scottish Tartans Authority and is partially based on the cross of St Andrew, patron saint of both Scotland and Russia. You can read more here. By the way, the Confederate flag of the US civil war also contained elements of the cross of St. Andrew.
‘Tell My Son I Love Him’
A Russian soldier, having just been blown up in his vehicle by a land mine, used his phone to record what he thought would be his dying words of love for his son. But in spite of losing an arm and lots of blood, he was rescued and survived.
Russian and Ukrainian Cooperate to Survive
In another incident, a Russian soldier found himself in a trench for ten days with a Ukrainian who spoke no Russian. They shared food and searched for water together. You can listen to the Russian soldier speaking about their ordeal here. There’s an important metaphor in this story, perhaps.
Russia Must Renounce Nuclear Weapons
Ivan Gavrilyuk, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Defence, has insisted that Russia renounce nuclear weapons as part of a negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia. He told a Ukrainian newspaper that:
Agreements will be signed - on one side by the coalition of states supporting Ukraine, and on the other side by Russia. And this document must include a provision for Russia's renunciation of nuclear weapons because this state poses a threat to peace.
Where on earth (or elsewhere) do they get these people from?
Ukrainians Behaving Badly
Women from the liberated town of Soledar have been complaining about their treatment by the occupying Ukrainian forces who kidnapped, murdered, looted and robbed. They also used phosphorous munitions, shot at civilians and were ‘such drug addicts’, according to one woman.
Poor Ukrainians
Kill Ratio 20-1
According to Scott Ritter, who has just returned from Russia and was talking to Garland Nixon, the kill ratio on the battlefronts is now 20-1 in favour of the Russians, which is staggering. He said that the Russians admitted 3,000 dead in the battle for Avdeevka but they also claimed to have killed 20,000 Ukrainians. At this rate, it may not be very long before the Ukrainian army collapses through lack of manpower. Scott also revealed that the Russians have two armies on the sidelines in Ukraine that have not yet been committed to the battle. He also said that some military people he had spoken to were optimistic that the war could end by September. These people also believe that Ukraine cannot be allowed access to the Black Sea in the future, so that Odessa will have to be secured as far as Transnistria, along with everything east of the Dnieper, including Kharkov. The Ritter/Nixon video can be seen here. It’s over an hour long but is well worth a watch.
No Military Certificate: No Treatment
According to Slavyangrad, Ukrainians who can’t produce a Military Enlistment Certificate will be refused medical treatment. They’ll be introducing that into our NHS soon!
Ukrainian Mourners Conscripted
Ukrainian mourners are complaining that they are being served conscription notices while attending the funerals of brave soldiers. The person in the video was very annoyed and who can blame him. Funerals are very personal affairs for many who attend them so they don’t want business of any sort conducted there - but for the Ukrainian authorities to use funerals to trap people is way beyond the pale.
Grampa Soldiers
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers fighting on the fronts has increased by 10 years to 43. Contrast this to the average age of US soldiers in Vietnam, which was 23. But I hear that some people of my age are on the front lines. I’m not sure how I would cope at this fairly advanced age.
Send Our People Home
Ukraine Presidential advisor, Sergei Leshchenko, has called on European countries to stop supporting refugees and send them back home, according to Slavyangrad:
Ukraine has lost a whole generation of young people..... Further stay of refugee families outside Ukraine may lead to a real catastrophe for the country.
A ‘whole generation’ of young men has been unnecessarily lost on the battlefields: that’s the biggest catastrophe for the country. Poor Ukraine. Leshchenko is clearly after more cannon fodder but I wonder how practical it would be for these people to return home?
Ukraine Becoming Authoritarian - Klitschko
This is a strange claim since Ukraine hasn’t really been a hotbed of democracy since Maidan and has been increasingly authoritarian since the SMO began. But the Mayor of Kiev has announced that it is ‘difficult to express an opinion that is at odds with that of the administration’. Many newspapers know that already. They have been shut down in case they express opinions that are at odds with the government. The same has happened to political parties a long time ago. Oh, and didn’t you notice that elections have been cancelled - Vitali. Ukraine has been heading towards ‘verticality and authoritarianism’ for a long time but Klitschko is probably playing a political game as part of a faction that wants the once great Z to leave. And the once great Z has become more authoritarian because he no longer has the backing of the US which made him great in the first place. What a fine mess you have got yourself into Volodymyr.
Zelensky’s Latest Fantasy Decree
The once great Z has signed a decree stating that the identity of Ukrainian citizens living in the Russian Federation should be preserved. You mean, just like the Russian speaking people in Ukraine have had their identities preserved by your administration. Anyway, Russia has a history of allowing its mixture of cultures and ethnicities to preserve their identities. But how exactly is Z going to enforce his decree? He could try casting a spell I suppose. But let’s call it what it is: pure fantasy.
Zelensky’s hypocrisy is staggering. But he also accused Russia of killing its own citizens in Donetsk, which is even more staggering. I have never liked the guy but now he is really starting to annoy me.
The Scary Narrative
Here are some examples of the Scary Narrative; i.e. the Orcs are coming. This appears to be designed to prepare European populations for a future war with Russia - even though there is no actual threat. The narrative appears to be telling the people that they will have to make sacrifices of all sorts because war is inevitable. In reality, European countries will be making sacrifices, not because of a Russian threat but because they have made a pig’s ear of their economies, their political systems and their culture. Is it possible that the threat of war could achieve the same level of compliance as Orwell’s 1984 rulers obtained through ‘permanent war’?
Davos
At Crazy (and some say depraved) Davos, Z claimed that Putin wants to conquer the whole world, while Jake Sullivan predicted confrontations around the globe as the inevitable MPWO emerges. Warmonger Shapps (Britain’s Defence minister) said that he is preparing for conflict with Russia, China Iran and North Korea and is worried that nuclear conflict could break out in different places at the same time, according to Pravda. These people are so cheerful.
But that’s not all. Dutch NATO Admiral Rob Bauer chimed in with a warning that it must prepare for full scale war with Russia in the next 20 years. People should make sure they have a battery powered radio and flashlight, he said, ‘so you can survive the first 36 hours...it’s a good idea to prepare for war’. Why on earth should it be a good idea to prepare for war? Jens Stoltenberg reinforced this Orwellian speak when he said last year that the alliance must prepare for many years of conflict with Russia.
I will repeat, I think the West has really cocked things up, economically, financially, politically, militarily and culturally and the people will have to make the sacrifices these mistakes have made necessary. Putin and Russia are destined to fulfil the roles of scapegoat and scary monster at the same time. The problem is that such narratives have been a little over-used in recent times and even the most gullible could start to become suspicious - but maybe that’s too much to hope for.
Baltic States Building Defences
Latvia and Lithuania have joined Estonia in building fortifications and Lithuanian savers are being asked to take their money out of their socks and invest it in tanks. The Russian bear has a very suspicious nose that will serve him well in the future.
Labour Lord Robertson
George Robertson, former NATO secretary and now member of the British House of Lords, did his duty by warning: ‘If the West allows Ukraine to be defeated, then the new world order will be determined by Russia, China and Iran’. Of course, other BRICS countries will also have a say but could they do worse than the evil empire? Robertson said that he is worried that his grandchildren will be uncomfortable living in such a world - which is meant to frighten people into thinking that Russia, China and Iran will actually change our culture - which is more nonsense. He also warned that after taking Ukraine, Russia will move on to Kazakhstan, Armenia and Moldova. The bottom line is that the days of the Unipolar World Order are numbered and dear old George is expressing his concerns about that, really.
I wonder if he knows that the great British Army, according to The Times, will be reducing its forces from 76,000 to 68,000 by 2026 and ten years after that it will reduce further to 52,000. This is due in part to a lack of enthusiasm among British youth to earn a living by killing innocent people which, unfortunately, they may be asked to do. But how will this diminutive army fare in the conflicts that some irresponsible military people are anticipating. Could our actions precipitate that which we dread, I wonder? Acting as if war is inevitable may make war inevitable.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius - more scaremongering:
It is not so much a question of preparing for an attack as of waiting for it. But it should be expected. And if you have to prepare for a danger that you don't know if and when it's going to happen, that means you have to arm yourself. And that's what we're doing with our NATO allies, and it's necessary.
This statement contradicts itself but it appears that all these ‘warmongers’ are speaking from the same scary script.
General Patrick Saunders
Saunders, who is the head of the UK’s armed forces, has suggested that Britain needs a ‘citizen army’ to fight countries such as Russia. The government reassured the public that it is not planning to bring back conscription. There are only 75,000 full timers in the British Army. ‘Taking preparatory steps to enable placing our societies on a war footing when needed are now not merely desirable but essential’, he said. Government spokesman, Max Blain, to his credit, suggested that ‘engaging in hypothetical wars is not helpful’.
The Daily Mail
I wonder whether there is an element of paranoia in all these fearmongering musings since the West has been poking the bear for some time. Many may now believe (fear) that the bear will retaliate at some point.
France Denies That Its Soldiers Were in Ukraine
Last week I reported on Russian claims that members of the the French Foreign Legion were killed in Kharkov. The French have angrily denied the claim, according to Zero Hedge. Another French source reported a French statesman saying that France can’t stop its citizens from fighting in Ukraine, according to RT (even though this appears to offend French law). Macron’s response to these accusations was to assert that Russia cannot be allowed to win: a statement that has been repeated over and over by Western representatives - as if stating it will make it real. A source close to Alexander Mercouris has said that many of the men killed in the Russian attack on Kharkov were indeed French soldiers whose service in Ukraine was approved by the French President himself - which is a huge embarrassment. Such service by a foreign power could be construed as an act of war. Mercouris has also suggested that Macron’s bizarre statement that France is not at war with Russia could have been prompted by admonitions from Russian diplomats who made accusations of their Ukrainian counterparts that an act of war had been committed.
There is some speculation on the MoA (Ukraine thread Jan 21st (29) Ossi and English Outsider) that those killed may have been instructors or operators of French equipment such as the Caesar self-propelled howitzers or AMX-10RC ‘tanks’. For a long time now, many of the commentators I follow have been suggesting that troops from NATO countries have been on the ground operating equipment. So this is no surprise to many.
Dirty Putin is Threatening Our Fish and Chips
Russia has cancelled its 1956 agreement which allows the UK to fish for cod and haddock in Russia’s Barents Sea. 566 thousand tons of cod were caught in the Barents last year. How dare Putin do this to us just because we are providing Ukraine with illegal weapons such as cluster bombs which are killing Russian civilians. And just because we are participating in 12 rounds of sanctions against them and have called for Russian culture to be cancelled. He is such a spiteful man that Putin! This could become personal for British lovers of FishnChips - and much more offensive than poisoning the Skripals.1
Ukraine Terrorist Attacks
Plane Downed Korochansky, Belgorod - 24th Jan
A Russian IL-76 transport plane crashed at Korochansky killing at least 65 people on board. Early reports claimed that most of the passengers were Ukrainian prisoners of war due to be exchanged. A later report suggested that it was downed by Ukrainian missiles from Kharkov, which appears to have been the case. The Military Chronicle confirmed that the plane contained Ukrainian POWs, 12 of whom were Azov militants. Russian Foreign Affairs spokesman, Rodion Miroshnik said:
Kiev has committed an act of insane barbarism, demonstrating complete disregard for human life. They violated the agreements, killed our pilots and escort fighters and "wasted" their own fellow citizens.
Miroshnik also said that this incident made future agreements with the Ukrainian administration problematic. An agreement was in place that allowed safe passage for military transport carrying prisoners and this was clearly broken. Former Verkhovna Rada MP Mosiychuk has demanded that those who gave the order to shoot down the Il-76 should be arrested. The Ukrainian SBU has launched an investigation.
19th/20th January Overnight
Belgorod and the DPR came under heavy shelling overnight and one woman was wounded in Donetsk.
20th/21st January Overnight
Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Tula, Oryol and Smolensk regions overnight but caused neither damage nor casualties. At the NOVATEK terminal (a large port facility) in Leningrad region, an oil tank of some 100 cubic metres capacity was set on fire following an attack. The fire has been contained. However, LNG shipments which came from this port have been suspended, according to Zero Hedge. It is not clear how long exports will be disrupted but clearly Russia must improve air defences here and at other vulnerable industrial facilities.
Market Massacre Donetsk
The market at Tekstilshchik in the Kirovsky district of Donetsk was also attacked over the weekend with 19 x 155mm cluster shells and the consequences were shattering. At least 27 people were killed and 30 injured. Western supplied cluster munitions were used.2 People will not be able to attend this market again without the thought of those who died and those who were maimed in this attack. There has been much talk of so-called ‘European values’ of late but in ignoring incidents such as this, Western leaders are showing themselves to lack any values as we understand them. Instead, there is a sort of pragmatism among the elites that judges moral matters in a self-interested manner. Murder, for example, can be good or bad for the elites who will judge it according to the extent to which it benefits them or hinders them. The people in Donetsk market today were murdered and if this atrocity were committed by civilians in times of peace the jury would be in no doubt that they were judging a murder case.
The Two Majors are reporting that the legacy media in the US is covering the market attack exposing it as a deliberate assault on civilians - which is good news. The UN has also condemned the attack.
21st/22nd January Overnight
Belgorod came under heavy shelling overnight. An excavator and a civilian vehicle were damaged.
22nd/23rd January Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
In the Belgorod region, the outskirts of the village of Dronovka, Grayvoronsky urban district and Krasnoye, Shebekinsky urban district came under fire from the AFU. The village of Repyakhovka, Krasnoyaruzhsky district, was attacked by a kamikaze drone. A civilian was injured, he suffered a concussion and was taken to the hospital. In Gorlovka (DPR), a woman born in 1962 was wounded.
23rd/24th January Overnight
The Two Majors reported that:
In the morning, the governor of the Orel region announced the work of air defence over Orel: “Services have been deployed to the incident sites in the Zheleznodorozhnoye and Northern regions to ensure the safety of the population.” In the Kursk region, the village of Gogolevka, Sudzhansky district, was shelled. In the Belgorod region, in the Valuysky urban district, air defence shot down one air target near the village of Timonovo. Khutor Balki and Terezovka, Shebekinsky urban district and Lozovaya Rudka, Borisovsky district, were attacked by the AFU using kamikaze drones. There were no casualties. A man born in 1949 died in Yasinovataya (DPR) and a woman born in 1952. In total, 14 civilians were injured in the Republic during the day.
24th/25th January Overnight
According to the Military Chronicle:
4 kamikaze drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were shot down over Bryansk at night. In Tuapse, at 0:50 a.m., the oil depot of the refinery was attacked, the fire is being extinguished.
The Two Majors added the following:
Flights were canceled at Sochi airport, local residents published footage of UAVs flying, the silhouette reminiscent of Ukrainian Beaver-type aircraft drones. In Donetsk (DPR), a civilian born in 1951 was injured by a drop from a UAV.
25th/26th January Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
Over the territory of the Belgorod region, two enemy missiles were destroyed in the evening. In the village of Lozovaya Rudka, Borisov district, the AFU dropped ammunition from a quadcopter, killing one civilian. In Kursk region, in Tyotkino, Glushkovsky district, a heating pipe was damaged by shelling from Ukraine, and heating in houses failed. In Donetsk (DPR), women born in 1968, 1960 and 1972 were injured by the AFU dropping ammunition from a drone.
The Sea War
21st January
Russian defences shot down a drone or missile over the waters of the Black Sea close to the Crimean coast. No damage or casualties were reported. Two missiles were also destroyed on the way to Crimea from Genichesk district of Kherson. More Stormshadows were shot down as they approached Tarkhankut and Sevastopol.
The Air War (Map)
Russian Drone/Missile Attacks
20th/21st January Overnight
Air alerts we sounded overnight in all regions of Ukraine. MiG 31Ks are thought to be airborne.
22nd/23rd January Overnight
The Military Chronicle provided this short report:
From 5 a.m., our Tu-95ms strategists were in the air, they were later joined by Tu-22m3s. The planes have already worked on the launch lines, Kh-101/555 missiles are flying throughout Ukraine. Explosions in Kharkiv, Kyiv, Sumy region, strikes in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region.
Military targets in Kiev and Kharkov were attacked with KH-22 missiles which fly at a speed of 4,000 km/hr. The Ukrainians admitted that they could not intercept any of them, some of which hit a gas pipeline and others caused power outages - according to Pravda.
23rd/24th January Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
Yesterday morning, the RF Armed Forces launched a massive strike on enemy territory with air and ground-based missile weapons. Tu-95ms, Tu-22m3, as well as Su-34 were used to launch missiles. The attacks mainly occurred in Kiev, Kharkov, and Pavlograd. Explosions were reported in the Poltava region.
24th/25th January Overnight
Geraniums were in the air overnight attacking Kremenchug while Russian missiles attacked Chuguev and Kharkov - according to Slavyangrad. The Two Majors provided this short report:
Our Aerospace Forces struck targets in Kiev, Zhitomir, etc. In Mirnograd, attacks were carried out on AFU locations. In Kharkov, AFU plans to move reserves to the left bank of the Oskol River were disrupted by a secondary detonation after the strikes. In Kherson, the deployment point of the AFU Marine Corps have been hit.
25th/26th January Overnight
The Two Majors reports that:
Our geraniums and missiles hit Odessa region, Kremenchuk and Kharkov. In the Ukrainian capital, administrative buildings were hit, including the Antonov Aircraft Factory.
Ukraine Missile/Drone Attacks
22nd January
Several drones attacked electric substations at Donetsk and Makeyevka overnight. This has caused power outages.
The Ground War
Russian MOD Reports
w/e 5th January 4690 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 365 (including 14 boats)
w/e 12th January 4720 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 313 (including 15 boats)
w/e 19th January 5645 Casualties, killed and wounded: equipment losses: 417
w/e 26th January 5800 Casualties, killed and wounded: equipment losses: 375
The upward trend continues.
The Fronts
Kherson/Krynki
The fate of Ukrainian soldiers at Krynki has probably upset many people on both banks of the Dnieper. This ‘bridgehead’ was never going anywhere and many Ukrainian soldiers were sacrificed to this ‘lost cause’ which allowed Z to boast that they had occupied parts of the Russian left bank. Reporting on this, the legacy media sometimes gave the impression that the way was open for an attack on Tokmak or some such nonsense.
According to one Telegram channel
As of this morning [21st Jan], at the bridgehead of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the village of Krynki, no more than 50 people remained alive from the 35th brigade of Marines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, of which 15 were wounded. Also, judging by radio interceptions, about 35 bodies were killed. No evacuation. The work of the gun on the enemy continues.
However, by the end of the week some Ukrainian units were still clinging on to Krynki.
Avdeevka
The situation is becoming critical in Avdeevka for Ukraine as the Russian stranglehold tightens. According the Ukrainian channel rezident:
Our sources in the General Staff report that the situation in Avdeevka is critical, the front may crumble, and the time to withdraw units to new prepared lines has been lost.
The situation is being compared with Bakhmut in the sense that the Ukrainians are being forced to use up elite reserves which have been unable to change the situation. The time to withdraw units to defensive positions further West has long passed, they say, and Ukraine’s defences in the city are being chewed up by Russian artillery 24/7.
On the 24th January, The Two Majors reported that the 110th brigade has surrendered to the Russians in Avdeevka. I have no idea how many men were involved. However, the Ukrainians are far from beaten and are offering fierce resistance/counter attacks.
Siversk
According to the Two Majors on January 26th:
In Svatovo Direction, in the Seversk sector, the battle for Belogorovka (LPR) is ongoing. In the northern part of Grigorovka, our forces managed to occupy the area among several branches of the Seversky Donets River. This allowed ours to establish control over the Belogorovka reserve, an important area for further attacks. To the east of the village, our forces approached a key height, with advancement complicated by dense mines.
Bakhmut (see map above)
On January 26th the Two Majors reported that:
In Bakhmut Direction, our army advanced in Bogdanovka and extended the zone of control east of Ivanovskoye (Krasnoye). Artillery, mortars and drones are working on positions south of the village. The AFU believe this is preparation for a large scale assault on their positions. North of Kleshcheyevka there is positional fighting.
Zaporizhye - Rabotino - Verbove
According to the Two Majors:
In Zaporozhye Direction is awakening. Probably our forces have replaced the personnel at the positions. Ours expanded the bridgehead between Rabotino and Verbovye. They are levelling the front at Novoprokopovka.
Other Fronts, according to the Two Majors:
In the Liman sector, there is a slow but steady advance of our troops. In the area of Terny, ours have entered the forest area (and the fortification "Rukavitsa"). They are consolidating on a bridgehead convenient for further advance. In the Kupyansk sector, we marched to Berestovoye.
The Economic War
German Decline
This year, Germany is expected to become one of the weakest countries in the world in terms of economic output. I can’t believe they are saying this about Germany.
Europe Hesitates On Stealing Russian Assets
It looks as if this the Europeans won’t be stealing frozen Russian assets due to ‘legal difficulties’ and lack of agreement between EU members.
World Politics
Hong Kong 0, Palestine 3
Trump
De Santis has pulled out of the Presidential race and has signaled that he will be backing Trump who had this to say at one of his rallies:
We will fight for America like no one has ever fought for it. Our final battle will take place in 2024. With your help, we will destroy the deep state and drive out the warmongers. We will drive out those who constantly want to fight.
This is why the Deep State wants him out of the race and I wouldn’t be surprised if it tries to eliminate him permanently. These are incendiary words.
Lavrov at the UN
Sergei Lavrov was at the UN Security Council this week to show them what a real diplomat looks and sounds like. He was complaining about the Donetsk Market Massacre among other things. He had this to say about the situation in Ukraine and Western ‘peace formulas’:
It is about eliminating the causes of the tragic situation for Ukraine. All other supposedly peaceful plans, platforms and formulas that the Kiev regime and its masters are still vainly pursuing have nothing to do with peace and serve only as a cover for continuing the war and siphoning off money from Western taxpayers.
He said that Russia is prepared to enter negotiations that are serious in reflecting the situation on the ground in Ukraine.
Erdogan - No Trust Towards The West
There is no more trust towards the Western countries that have failed the test on the Gaza issue. Their fascist faces have been exposed. They have not taken a single step to prevent violence. The organizations tasked with global security, just as in Iraq, Bosnia, Syria and Somalia, have suffered a fiasco. They have confined themselves to idly watching acts of genocide and barbarism committed against the people of Palestine by the 'Fuehrer of Modern Times,' [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu].
Strong words from Erdogan but will he back them up with anti-Western actions: that’s what is needed.
Turkish Parliament Approves Swedish Entry into NATO
Disappointing. Unfortunately, Hungary’s Orban has said that his country has no objection to Swedish membership of NATO. So there you go: can’t win them all!
Slovakia Defenceless
The Slovakian Defence Minister has stated that its donations to Ukraine have completely deprived it of air defence. The country contributed the only S-300 system they had along with a squadron of MiG-29 fighter jets. It will take years to build up air defences, Robert Kalinak said. At the moment, Slovakia doesn’t need air defence but what if some European countries along with the US are no longer friends? That may sound far fetched but in the current turbulent and changing world anything can happen.
The emerging Multi-Polar World Order
ICJ Rules in Favour Of South Africa Against Israel
South Africa did not secure a ceasefire as part of this interim ruling of the ICJ but it achieved the following:
Court finds the risk of irreparable harm is "plausible".
Provisional Measures of the ICJ:
Israel must take all measures to prevent the commission of all acts within Genocide Convention articles. 2 a), b), c), and d)
Israel must: Ensure that military forces do not commit any of these acts. Take measures to prevent and punish direct and public incitement to commit genocide against Palestinians
Israel must take immediate and effective measures to address the adverse conditions of life in Gaza including humanitarian aid
Israel also must prevent the destruction of evidence
Israel must submit a report on all measures taken to give effect of this order within one month
The full implications of this interim ruling will become known over the next days and weeks but since I expected less I’m not disappointed. I’m really not sure what will happen next but I will report on this again next week after the analysts have gnawed at it a little. I think this ruling could be huge in the context of the emerging MPWO but only time will tell. I listened to the ruling live and did so with a smile on my face.
US To Withdraw Troops From Iraq
At long last, it looks as if US and International troops will be leaving Iraq as the Pentagon announces negotiations with the Iraqi authorities on the withdrawal of 2,500 American servicemen.
That’s it for another eventful week. Many thanks for your view, subscriptions, likes and comments. I must say that I still have a smile on my face.
Best Rob
Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.
If you would like to know more google George Galloway and The Skripals.
I can remember thinking, while researching the US’s decision to supply 155mm cluster shells - that some in Ukraine will be eagerly awaiting this wonderful means of killing more civilians. The motivation to do this has been building as failures on the battlefields have multiplied.
Another great recap.
"According to Scott Ritter..." Who, I believe for the first time, explicitly said that Russia was going to take all of Ukraine, go to Kiev and remove the Ukrainian government, and the Ukrainian state will "cease to exist". - as I've been predicting. He didn't mention putting a Military District in western Ukraine but that's the logical outcome of the preceding.
"Zelensky’s Latest Fantasy Decree" - Ritter covered that, too. He explained that he went to a Ukrainian restaurant in Russia where the wait staff all wore Ukrainian dress. The place was full of Russians.
"Britain needs a ‘citizen army’ - Kinda hard to do when firearms are extremely restricted in the UK - unlike the US where we have militias all over the place armed to the teeth (albeit all infiltrated by the FBI and the ATF).
"Trump" - To paraphrase what we used to say in Federal prison, "Trump ain't gonna bust a goddamn grape."
"South Africa did not secure a ceasefire" - Yes, it did, as Moon of Alabama reports today:
The ICJ Could Not Order A General Ceasefire. It Ordered Israel To Cease Fire.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/01/the-icj-could-not-order-a-general-ceasefire-it-ordered-israel-to-cease-fire.html
In other words, for the legal reason that Hamas is not a state, the court could not order a GENERAL ceasefire. It DID tell Israel to cease killing any more people or harming them and a list of other actions which are de facto a ceasefire. I don't know if the order said anything about Hamas stopping its fighting, as I haven't read it yet (and may not immediately). If it didn't, then in essence it supports the idea that Hamas has a legitimate reason to keep fighting while Israel has to stand down.
Not that it matters, as I've argued before. Everything will continue as it has. Israel and the US will ignore the ICJ.
Ritter made the excellent point with Nixon that the US lost its first actual engagement with Ansar Allah. The US Navy escorted two Maersk Line ships full of US weapons intended for Israel, Ansar Allah fired at them, almost hit them, the two ships turned around and went back, and Maersk Line refuses to ship any more. So Ansar Allah won.
Meanwhile the consensus from most analysts is that Israel will start a larger conflict with Hezbollah in the very near future - probably this coming month. And the pressure is building for the US to directly attack Iran, although the possibility that the US will withdraw its forces from Iraq and Syria might delay that. However, the fact that the US is considering withdrawing is in fact more evidence that the US intends to attack Iran and has already decided to do so, as leaving those forces in those countries during a war with Iran would be suicidal. Biden will spin that as an effort to save US lives, but in reality it's a pre-war move.
Excellent and accurate report.