Ukraine Weekly Update
19th July 2024
This week will be remembered for the assassination attempt on Donald Trump which came as no surprise to many of us. Questions will be asked about the apparent failings of the security services charged with protecting a man who is probably the most prominent target for assassins in the world. People will be sceptical that this was the work of a madman acting on his own. Some are speculating that the Deep State is attempting to eliminate those among the major players who seek peace in Ukraine. This comes close on the heels of the attempted assassination of Robert Fico of Slovakia. Peter Szijjártó, Hungary’s Foreign Secretary, takes this view. But I’m not going speculate here.
Donald Trump has chosen I.D. Vance for his running mate and the Ukrainians are ‘in mourning’ due to his anti-Ukraine views, while those who fear war with China will not be reassured.1 Rumours are circulating that Trump’s arch rival Biden, who has allegedly caught Covid, will give way to Cackling Kamala over the weekend.
The hot wars have taken a back seat after this US drama but the killing - no, the murder - of civilians in Gaza continues unabated while the Houthis continue to damage shipping in the Red Sea, after recently persuading a US aircraft carrier to leave the arena. They Houthis have even attacked Tel Aviv.
Combatants on the battlefronts in Ukraine are being scorched by the sun as well as by their enemy - with temperatures in excess of 40 degrees centigrade. Ukrainian casualties have decreased slightly (1,000 fewer than last week) and forward movement by the Russians, though not spectacular, has been steady. There has been some activity by the Russians in the Sumy region but no sign - as far as I can see - that anything major will happen there just yet.
Ukrainian terror attacks have caused fewer casualties this week but the reports I have access to have been scanty. I get the impression that Russian efforts in the air war have also reduced in intensity - but I can judge only from the reports I have seen.
Inside Ukraine, there are signs of unrest. At this point, these are only like tiny buds on a fruit tree in early summer - but they will grow. However, they are sufficiently significant for me to cover them in the Update for the second week. The prospect of a new US government that will withdraw support to Ukraine could change things in the here and now as Ukrainians may come to see the prospects of victory vanish completely.
It’s been another eventful week.
Russia and China Expand Military Cooperation
Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Lieutenant General Andrei Bulyga, held negotiations with his Chinese colleague, Major General Zhang Fan on the 15th July near Moscow. They talked about cooperation and an exchange of experiences between the two armies.
15 Millions Rubles for the First Downed F-16
This reward is being offered by the ‘Forres’ - a company from the Urals to the first Russian to destroy and F-16.
German Magazine Shut Down After Zakharova Interview
German magazine Compact was shut down by German police after the interview with Zakharova because it has been judged to be ‘extremist’. The police also confiscated property belonging to the magazine. You can read more here.
Autumn Counter-Offensive
According to Ukrainian Telegram Channel, Resident, General Syrsky has assembled 8 new brigades fully equipped with Western equipment for an Autumn Counter Offensive which will give the Democrats a boost for the November elections. According to NATO hopium, the Russian army will exhaust itself over the summer and will be vulnerable to this onslaught which will be directed at two sectors of the front. Anyone who is following this conflict closely will know that this is nonsense and anyone following US politics will know that the Democrats will not benefit from an injection of success on Ukrainian battlefields - they have suffered too much damage even before someone tried to kill Trump.
Ukraine Peace Movement
The level of opposition to the war among Ukrainians is increasing to the extent that it is now worthy of examination imv. A Ukrainian source had this to say:
Now we see a sharp reversal; we were the first to know about this and predict this scenario. There are more and more people who hate the Ukrainian government and have a positive attitude towards the Russian Federation. This provides excellent ground for the emergence of a huge number of partisans from the region’s residents in the city.
This change has occurred due to the dictatorial practices of Zelensky and Ermak, according to legitimniy - including the botched mobilization.
Peace Bloggers
According to Pravda, Ukrainian bloggers with over a million subscribers are calling for peace and blaming the government for the deaths of civilians. Some said that they have no need of the 1991 borders. One blogger said:
Our country is being robbed by our own government, children and people are dying, families and lives, plans and dreams are being destroyed.
Another said:
In my 30-40-50 years, the state has given me nothing but the Kalashnikov. Why should I be a patriot?
Many do not believe Ukrainian propaganda (such as the alleged Russian attack on a hospital); they are convinced that Ukraine cannot win the war and that negotiations with Russia are inevitable. Therefore, they argue, peace moves should be initiated immediately before more are killed unnecessarily.
Sabotage
On July 12th several cars were set alight in the Vinnitsa region south west of Kiev. In Radostnaya (Odessa) two military vehicles were burned out and a military man burned the car of a TPP worker - according to legitimniy. It appears that the Ukrainian authorities have been told to clamp down on dissent and dissenters. On July 14th, Odessa witnessed its fourth torching of a Ukrainian forces car within a week - as you can see here. On the 15th July, another military car was torched in Luzanovka (Odessa) during the night. Also on the 15th, a grenade was thrown into a TPP military registration/enlistment office - damaging a filing cabinet - according to legitimniy. Overnight on the 16th/17th July, Odessa police reported that 5 army/TPP vehicles were burned out. On the 18th, legitimniy reported another three burned out TPP cars in Odessa.
Draft Dodging
This map shows that draft dodging is higher in the west of the country. Add two zeros to each figure to get the total number of dodgers in each region. The largest figure is 101,700 (in the far west). A survey has shown that 46% of Ukrainians do not regard draft dodging as shameful. You can read more at Sputnik.
Protests
Dnipropetrovsk
Residents of Kamenskoye (Dnipropetrovsk) have been outside the DTEK (energy provider) building protesting at being left without electricity for 17 hours a day. According to legitimniy, this was the second ‘social riot’ in a week.
Odessa
TPP workers entered a bus in search of new ‘recruits’ but they were ejected by the passengers. One woman said: ‘go fight for your drug addict Zelensky’. You can see some footage here.
Elsewhere in Odessa, many people are blocking the streets in protest at having no electricity. The police have not been interfering with the protesters. You can read more here.
In another incident a TPP official was so frightened by the people gathering around him that he fired his pistol in the air. You can see footage here.
Kiev
In Kiev, a woman set herself alight in public to protest her husband’s forced mobilisation. Yo can see footage on X or Telegram. She is still alive at the time of writing, with 80% burns. Heartbreaking.
Only One in Ten Willing to Fight
According to a Ukrainian commander, only one in ten men are willing to fight. Nine will write refusals or go to hospital, he claimed, adding that most are not physically fit for service.
Partisans (outside of Ukraine)
Poland
A fire raged for days among warehouses in the port city of Gdnansk, where, it is reported, deliveries of military equipment have been arriving. It seems that the fire has revealed tractors and containers covered in NATO symbols. The fires spread rapidly covering 6.5 thousand square metres and explosions could be heard emanating from the inferno.
This could have been an accident but it could have been the work of partisans - who knows. But I am including the story just in case. This follows the events in Romania I reported on last week.
Syrsky Surrender?
General Syrsky, commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, is reported to be considering surrender because he ‘no longer believes in victory’, according to the Deputy Head of the Rada Defense Committee, Mariana Bezuhla. She has been informed of Syrsky's position by "several sources." I have no idea whether this is true or not but Mariana has been very critical of Syrsky for a while.
However, it appears that Mariana has been naughty since she has been recalled from her post. Her comments about Syrsky were not appreciated, apparently - so perhaps Zelensky wants to keep him in place so he can be scapegoated for greater benefit later.
Marianna says that her comments are based on testimony of those close to the general. So it could be true. Perhaps Syrsky, in private, expresses such sentiments.
Honestly, I have no idea what is going on here, but Mariana, who hates all things Russian, has been placed on Ukraine’s infamous ‘kill list'.
Zelensky - We Can’t Join NATO Until War Ends
In a recent press conference Z had this to say about NATO membership:
We did not get at this summit what Ukraine cannot get if it is at war. Ukraine will receive an invitation to NATO and NATO membership quickly, as soon as the war ends. To invite them, they need a consolidated decision of all NATO members.
This may be a poor translation but it gives the impression that NATO is eager for Ukraine to join as soon as it is defeated on the battlefield but old Stolty has already said that Ukraine must win in order to qualify for membership. But in that highly unlikely event, the approval of countries such as Hungary or Slovakia would need to be obtained - which is also unlikely. It is possible that the once great Z is simply employing some good old fashioned ‘spin’ here to reassure his domestic audience.
Ukrainians Could Sue Over Illegal Mobilization
Ukrainian Telegram legitmniy is reporting that Zelensky and Ermak are concerned that citizens could start suing the government for what has been an illegal mobilisation. If someone achieves success in this endeavour an avalanche of cases could follow - therefore the SBU will probably put pressure on the lawyers engaged by complainants.
Ukraine Grid Close to Collapse
Temperatures in excess of 40 degrees C could cause Ukraine’s electricity grid to collapse, according to the NYT. Ukrainian citizens are concerned that repairs required to the grid will not be completed before winter. This was reported by Slavyangrad.
Ukraine Terror Attacks (those that target civilians)
12th/13th July
In Shebekinsky (Belgorod), a security guard was injured and the head of the urban district response department was killed. Elsewhere in Belgorod, an agricultural vehicle along with cars and houses was damaged (two houses were burned to the ground). Many villages in Kursk suffered shelling and drone attacks which damaged petrol stations mainly but there were no casualties. In the border regions, nine drones were disabled by small arms fire or EW. In the DPR, three civilians were injured by shelling/drone drops.
13th/14th July
Both Belgorod and Kursk came under attack from shelling and drones overnight - as usual. Petrol stations were among the most common targets in Kursk. I have no reports of damage or injuries. Later, the village of Oktyabrysky was attacked with MLRS and four people, including a nine month old infant were injured.
14th/15th July
Fifteen drones were shot down above Bryansk region overnight. The above house, in the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka, Belgorod, was hit by artillery fire injuring three people. A total of eight people were injured by shelling in Belgorod overnight . Kursk also suffered shelling and drone attacks but no casualties were reported. On the Donetsk-Mariupol motorway, a 14 year old girl was injured by a drone drop on a car.
15th/16th July
Overnight, nine drones were destroyed over Rostov region and one over Voronezh. In Belgorod region, three people were injured by drones in the village of Oktyabrsky while in the DPR one person was killed and another injured by artillery and drone attack. 17 drones were shot down over Bryansk, three over Kursk, one over Oryol and one over Lipetsk.
16th/17th July
On the evening of the 16th July an 18 years old girl riding her bicycle through the village of Tyotkino (Kursk) was hit by explosives dropped from a drone. She is in a critical condition. In the same village, an attack on a house injured one civilian, an attack on a piece of agricultural equipment injured another while a recue worker was hit by drone drop while attempting to extinguish a fire. In the village of Shebekino in Belgorod, four civilians were injured by shelling. In the DPR, one civilian was injured by shelling while another received shrapnel wounds when a petal mine exploded. Later on the 17th July, a drone attack on a car in Belgorod killed a married couple.
17th/18th July
Overnight, two drones were shot down over Bryansk region but one injured a teenager in the village of Zernovo. In Belgorod, three civilians were injured in Shebekino and one in Novaya Tavolzhanka. Kursk came under attack from ‘copter’ and ‘kamikaze’ drones overnight which targeted civilian infrastructure and agricultural equipment. Eight civilians were injured. In the DPR, two civilians were injured by a ‘drone drop’ on their car. Elsewhere in the DPR, drone attacks injured two civilians while artillery injured two more.
18th/19th July
Many villages in Belgorod region were attacked with drones and shelling overnight. A tractor driver was injured by a drone drop in a field while another driver was injured on the motorway near Cheremoshnoye. An administration building was attacked near Beryozovka injuring a woman and in Belgorod District three people were injured when a drone attack caused their car to crash. Kursk and Bryansk came under similar attack but no casualties have been reported. However, 11 drones were shot down overnight in the border regions. In Gorlovka (DPR) four civilians were killed and five wounded by shelling.
The Sea War
14th/15th July
Sevastopol was attacked with drones overnight damaging a house in Fiolent - according to the Military Chronicle.
15th/16th July
Overnight, six drones were shot down over Crimea.
17th/18th July Overnight
According to the Military Chronicle:
This night was the most massive attack on Donuzlav in Crimea. With short breaks, the units fired from 3 to 6 hours. Up to 10 unmanned enemy boats were destroyed and 33 UAVs were shot down. Sevastopol was also attacked.
I haven’t seen any reports of damage or casualties.
The Air War (Map)
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
12th/13th July
According to the Two Majors:
In the afternoon (of the 12th), explosions were reported from the Odessa region: warehouses and UAV assembly workshops were hit in Odessa and Ilyichevsk.
Poltava was also attacked overnight.
14th/15th July
Odessa was attacked by ‘Geraniums’ overnight. In Lvov, a transformer substation was hit causing power outages.
15th/16th July
According to the Two Majors:
The RFAF's Geraniums hit some rear areas of the enemy during the night. Explosions were reported in the Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, Chernigov and Cherkassy regions. It is indicative that the evening movement of our strategic aviation, uncovered by the enemy, in vain put his air defence forces and means on alert.
16th/17th July
Odessa was attacked overnight, with one explosion occurring in the area of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi on the shore of the Dnieper estuary.
17th/18th July
The Major of Kiev reported explosions in the Darnitsky district of the city overnight. Mirgorod airport was also attacked along with the oil refinery at Kremenchug in Poltava - according to Slavyangrad.
18th/19th July
Late on the 18th July, Odessa came under missile attack.
Ukrainian Missile/Drone Attacks
12th/13th July
At 4 a.m. on the 13th July, an oil depot was set alight in Tsimliansky region of Rostov. Fire crews containing 49 men and 14 pieces of equipment tackled the blaze.
The Ground War
Russian MoD Reports
w/e 28th June 13,820 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 474.
w/e 5th July 13,525 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 418.
w/e July 12th 14,070 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 495.
w/e July 19th 13,075 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 474.
This is the lowest casualty rate for a while - could it be due to the heat?
The Fronts
Front Line Cats
Dima Update 19th July - Military Summary Channel
Kharkov
According to the Two Majors on July 18th:
In the Kharkov direction, there are fierce battles in the town of Volchansk. The enemy is attempting to cross the Volchya River. On the Liptsy direction, fighting continues near the village of Glubokoye, the AFU's attacks were unsuccessful.
The Ukrainians are employing groups of ex-prisoners in ‘meat attacks’ on Volchansk, Tikhoye and Glubokoye.
Kupyansk
According to the Two Majors:
In the Kupyansk direction, the RFAF attacked in the villages of Terny and Makeyevka (LPR). At Andreyevka and the Berestovoye - Peschanoye ledge there are positional battles with the use of drones and artillery. Our troops are using aviation and FABs with UMPC.
Svatove - Kreminna
Seversk
On the 18th July, the Two Majors reported:
In the Seversk sector, the RFAF advanced near Razdolovka, and there are positional battles near Belogorovka and Verkhnekamenskoye.
Chasov Yar
According to the Two Majors on July 19th:
North of ChasovYar's, eastern part, the situation is characterised by the gradual advance of our troops at Kalinovka for the task of reaching the Seversky Donets-Donbass Canal. The eastern part of Kalinovka and the territory of the farm north of the settlement came under the control of our forces.
Toretsk - Niu York
On July 18th, According to the Two Majors:
In the area of Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk), our units continue to attack at the same lines with a gradual penetration into the enemy’s defences. The AFU are conducting a maneuverable defence.
On the 19th July the Majors reported that:
In the area of the Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) agglomeration, the RFAF are advancing on their previous lines: NyuYork (Novgorodskoye), Druzhba, Kirovo, Yuzhnoye. At the same time, the AFU is conducting an organised defence, solving the task of depleting our offensive potential in the direction.
Ocheretino
There have been few reported changes here this week.
West of Avdeevka
On the 19th July, according to the Two Majors:
West of Avdeyevka, the RFAF are developing their success in Novosyolovka1st and Lozovatskoye.
Krasnogorovka
This is Krasnogorovka on the 16th July where units of the Ukrainian 59th brigade are gradually being knocked out of the north and north western sections of the city. It appears that the Russians are attempting to encircle the city, according to the Two Majors.
Uhledar - Konstantinovka
On July 17th, the Russians reached the Uhledar-Konstantinovka road which will cause some supply problems to the Ukrainians.
Urozhaynoye
The village of Urozhaynoye in Donetsk was liberated by Russian forces on the 14th July. Four Ukrainian brigades have been destroyed in the process.
Zaporozhye/Kherson
No changes in these Directions.
The Economic War
German Economy Continues Its Decline
Insolvency rates among companies in Germany are rising rapidly, according to a report by the Creditreform agency. Many are declaring bankruptcy blaming high energy prices and ‘Green initiatives’. The problem is affecting all sectors of the German economy, including construction, industry and services.
Russian Exports to India Grow Massively
It is reported that this compensates Russia for 70% of the exports lost to the EU.
Starmer to Give Ukraine $3.9 billions a Year
As the NHS and Social Services collapse in the UK and while the police force struggles to keep pace with crime, Keir Starmer has promised to back Ukraine ‘for as long as it takes’. He reminded us that NATO was founded by the generation that defeated fascism but forgot to mention that NATO is currently assisting fascists to kill Russians who won the war against fascism - Doh!
Yellen Wakes Up
US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, may have taken a ‘red pill’ of sorts. Truthful realism dripped from her mouth when she admitted:
As the US imposes sanctions, more and more countries will look for an alternative to the dollar. US sanctions will reduce the value of the dollar.
It is rather odd that so many of us have been saying this for years and yet this eminent economist wasn’t able to work it out.
I wonder if she also realises that sanctions on Russia and others are uniting the opposition to the US and accelerating de-dollarisation. BRICS countries are recognising the US as an oppressor and are uniting against it.
NATO To Steal Chinese Infrastructure
NATO allies are talking about reclaiming Chinese infrastructure in Europe to punish China for being the ‘chief enabler’ of the conflict in Ukraine, according to Lena Petrova. But NATO has no authority or right to seize Chinese property through nationalisation. The theft will happen only if the conflict in Europe expands and this lends support to the view that the US, the UK and the EU are preparing for an expansion of the conflict that their populations will resist. Clearly, those proposing such measures have not heeded Janet Yellen’s warning. Many countries will now fear that any infrastructure they have abroad is not entirely safe and they may act to reduce the risk by extracting any valuable infrastructure (where they are able to do so).
World Politics
Trump Assassination Attempt Fails
The demonisation of Donald Trump, which has been going on for about nine years and which has recently intensified, was bound to lead to an attempt on his life in the event that the Democrats failed to impeach or jail him. This was absolutely no surprise to me and it would be no surprise if other attempts are made. He came within an inch of death as the bullet struck his ear: the shooter was less fortunate. Democrats have been saying that Trump is a fascist and that his election would end democracy in the US (if only the US had democracy). At least one Democrat, Stacey Plaskett, had called for Trump to be shot. She was not alone in spewing hate speech at Trump as this article in RT shows. Even Biden was guilty, in talking about ‘targeting’ Trump in the ‘cross hairs’ or as a ‘bullseye’ - unfortunate phrases in the light of subsequent events.
If Trump had been killed, it is by no means certain that the Democrats would have benefited but now he has survived he will appear invincible to his supporters and Trump himself may feel that he is destined to save America. Larry Johnson, on the Duran, suggests this possibility. This is one of those events in history that defines an age, very different to the heroic age of the Greeks, however. Trump is not a hero in the Greek sense (as Alexander Mercouris appears to believe); he’s simply an actor playing out a role. Just before the bullet struck him, Trump was in showman mode: working an audience. The bullet stunned him but it was not long before he was back in showman mode: he had the presence of mind to appreciate that the cameras were still rolling. But there was also an element of defiance in Trump and his fist pump that can be known only to those who have just cheated death.
Trump must also be given credit for his bravery (another shot could have killed him - yet he stood up); and his determination to continue to ‘fight, fight, fight’. It has to be said that there are as many things to admire about Trump as there are things that annoy some. However, I am convinced that he is ‘not a puppet’ of the Deep State and that, for me, is a among his most endearing qualities.
But for the sake of World Peace let us hope that Trump has learned lessons from his first term that will enable him to ‘drain the swamp’ instead of inviting ‘swamp creatures’ into his government. It appears that he has united the Republican Party and has more of his own people around him this time. He also has a better idea of how things work - according to the Duran.
This attempt on Trump’s life on July 13th, came two days before he was due to be officially installed as the Republican candidate along with the VP nominee. Some, such as Elon Musk and Robert F Kennedy Jnr., are suspicious at what they see as the lacklustre response of the security services. Musk asked: ‘Extreme incompetence or was this done on purpose’ while Kennedy was more colloquial when he said: ‘Take your security service and shove it up your ass’.
Speaking to Sputnik, former US Army psychological warfare officer and State Department counterterrorism analyst Scott Bennett said:
The Secret Service were remarkably — if not suspiciously — slow in their protecting of the [former] President [Trump], similar to how they were slow in protecting President John F Kennedy when he was shot in Texas.
You can read more at Sputnik.
If you would like some rational and detailed analysis of the alleged security failure, have a look at this, featuring Larry Johnson and ex-US sniper Chris Whitcomb. Larry also features on the Duran in a discussion about the possibility that there is more to the assassination attempt than the anger of a mentally ill young man who acted on his own initiative.
Trump/Vance Become Republican Nominees - Official
On the 15th July, Trump became the Republican party’s official presidential nominee with JD Vance (of Ohio) the nominee for VP. Vance is also against funding Ukraine: by which he means leaving Ukraine to the Europeans to sort out while the US focusses its attention on defeating China. Not all Trump supporters are happy with this choice of a man who was once a ‘never Trumper’. Anthony Brian Logan provides some brief analysis here (9 mins)
In spite of his opposition to funding Ukraine, Vance is no ‘peacenik’. In addition to being bellicose towards China, he has also talked about bombing Iran. You can read more at Pravda. According to this report, Vance has said that he believes the US Empire is on the verge of ‘civilizational collapse’ similar to the Roman Republic’s collapse of the 1st century BC. Following Caesar’s assassination there was civil war in Rome which lasted many years. Afterwards, the people continued to believe that they were living in a republic under Augustus but Rome had become an Empire. At first it denied it and then it boasted about it. Vance aspires to be like Charles de Gaulle, who transformed the constitution of his country in order to save it.
Of course, many Ukrainians are not at all happy with Vance who they see as pro-Russian and anti-funding. One said, simply, ‘we are screwed’. Others lamented the fact that the assassin’s bullet missed.
As a footnote to this, SBU chief Budanov has admitted that several attempts have been made to assassinate Putin. Maria Zakharova pointed out that US money was used to finance these attempts.
The EU has refused to condemn the attempt to assassinate Trump and one third of Democrats believe it was faked.
Biden - I’m Still in the Race
Richard Grenell - Let Russia Keep What its Got
Grenell could be US Secretary of State if Trump wins and he is suggesting that the ‘Ukrainian’ territory Russia currently occupies should be recognised as autonomous. Whereas, Grenell’s statement can be regarded as more realistic than anything recently uttered by any other Western politician it is still adrift of reality. All five breakaway oblasts have voted to join the Russian Federation: they don’t want autonomy. I don’t think they will take too kindly to being asked to vote again.
Orban - The Peacemaker
Viktor Orban has provided EU leaders with Ukraine peace proposals based on his talks with Zelensky, Putin, Xi Jinping and Donald J. Details are not yet available but you can read more at RT.
In ‘gratitude’ for Orban’s peace efforts, the Ukrainians attempted to assassinate him even before he left for Moscow. You can read more here.
According to Orban, Trump is prepared to mediate in the Ukraine conflict if he is elected President and is willing to act even before his inauguration.
Some EU leaders, also ‘grateful’ for Orban’s peace efforts, are planning to boycott the whole of Orban’s presidency and take Hungarians’ voting rights away from them. You can read more at Zero Hedge. These people are so, so childish.
Lavrov Chairs UNSC - New York, 16th July
The intrepid Sergey Lavrov travelled to New York this week but had to avoid unfriendly countries - so the journey took him 12 hours. As Chair, he will preside over discussions about Gaza and Ukraine, according to Tass. He will lead ministerial debates on ‘multilateral cooperation in the interest of establishment of a more fair, democratic and sustainable world order’. Good luck with that Sergey. I don’t think you’ll get much support there mate.
In response to John Kirby’s suggestion that Europe, rather than the US, would suffer from global conflict, Lavrov warned:
In Washington, they are convinced that a new global war will affect not the US, but their European allies. If this analysis forms the basis of the Biden administration's strategy, it is a very dangerous misconception, and Europeans should realize what a suicidal role has been assigned to them.
He added:
It is necessary to eliminate once and for all the root causes of the crisis in Europe... The political and diplomatic resolution must be accompanied by concrete steps to eliminate threats to the Russian Federation from the Western Euro-Atlantic direction.
Regarding the West’s ‘rules based order’, he had this to say:
George Orwell in his 1945 novel “Animal Farm” predicted the essence of the Western rules-based world order: “all animals are equal, but some are more equal than others”. If you obey the hegemon's will, everything is permitted. If you dare defend your national interests, you will be declared an outcast and swarmed with sanctions.
He lambasted the West for its failure to denounce Ukrainian attacks on the Russian language, culture and religion and for the part it played in provoking the Ukraine crisis. Brave man: he pulled no punches.
In another security lapse, a protester was allowed to confront Lavrov but didn’t get close up to him
You can watch extracts from his speech here (19 mins)
Wise Westerners
Ex Swiss diplomat, Georges Martin (not George Martin), lamented the fact that Europe has no leaders capable of resisting the destructive influence of the US and NATO, which he called: ‘Washington’s Military instrument’. In an interview he said:
The current European leaders seem to be participating in a show. Politicians say certain phrases and do not think about what this means for international relations. Militarist discourse has replaced peacekeeping discourse. Because of this, Europe is the second after Ukraine to suffer from what is happening.
He blamed the current tragedy in Ukraine on NATO’s expansion and the West’s failure to listen to Putin back in 2021 when he asked the West to negotiate and compromise on expansion.
Musk Refused Censorship Deal With European Commission
According to Musk:
The European Commission offered X an illegal secret deal: if we quietly censored speech without telling anyone, they would not fine us. The other platforms accepted that deal. X did not.
“We look forward to a very public battle in court, so that the people of Europe can know the truth,” he added.
Good for you Musky.
Bad News - Von der leyen Stays
In spite of her dishonesty regarding financial interest in a pharmaceutical company, Von der leyen will be around for another five years as European Commission President - assuming the EU lasts that long. She has vowed to create a European Defence Union - according to Tass. Not all Europeans will be pleased, but from a journalistic point of view she is pure gold.
Protests
Greece
Greek activists protested against the NATO Summit by burning US and NATO flags, demanding the closure of bloc’s military bases in Thessaloniki and an end to wars in Gaza and Ukraine. You can see some footage here.
The emerging Multi-Polar World Order
Russia’s Asia Policy Changing
This has actually been changing over the past 15 years as Russia gradually abandons involvement with APEC and the East Asia Summit in favour of direct diplomacy with individual states. Putin’s recent visits to North Korea and Vietnam are part of this change - according to RT whose article is based on one produced by the Valdai Discussion Club. RT summarises the Valdai article as follows:
To sum up, Russian policy in Asia has now entered the next stage of its development. It is no longer based on the ideas of the past, when the most important thing was to ‘illuminate’ as many international platforms and forums as possible. Such illumination has achieved very little before – the right to be a bystander in the Sino-American conflict – and now it has become completely meaningless. But strengthening the relationship at the bilateral level is a painstaking task for diplomats and businesses, and of little interest to the public or the media. In the years to come, therefore, the work to get closer with Asian states will look like a smooth process, but behind the scenes there will be a lot of hard graft.
This appears to fit with what Alex Krainer is saying about Russia’s engagement with Asia. Next.
Alex Krainer on the SCO
Alex Krainer is a market analyst, researcher, trader and hedge fund manager who was recently interviewed by Nima on Dialogue Works. I found his analysis of the current situation informative as he discusses the role of the SCO in combating the West.
One of the key principles of the SCO, Krainer reminds us, is that no country’s security can be jeopardised at the expense of another. In pursuit of this principle, the SCO is committed to challenging terrorism, extremism and separatism: all of which are used by the West to destabilise countries in order to secure their compliance with its wishes and steal their resources. This is what has happened in East Asia where countries such as Azerbaijan have been destabalised in order to steal oil resources around the Caspian Sea. The SCO is attempting to achieve security in the region by inviting countries to join - and many countries in the region have already done so.
Krainer believes that Europe is destined to collapse in the same way that the Soviet Union did in the early nineties due to inflationary pressures exacerbated by money printing. You can see more here - last ten minutes or so.
Turkiye and the SCO
Turkiye has applied to join the SCO as a full member but according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, there is a problem:
There are certain contradictions between Turkish commitments and [its] position on fundamental issues as a NATO member and the worldview formulated in the founding documents of the SCO
This is so, so true. Turkiye will have to take sides sooner rather than later.
BRICS Joint Geological Platform
BRICS is to create a joint geological platform, according to Sputnik:
The platform will provide for knowledge sharing, technological development, exchange of practical experience and holding joint events, the statement read, adding that the concept implies the creation of the coordination council, joint projects commission, council on technology transfer as well as the working group on the most important minerals and other experts and task groups.
The BRICS Round Table on Geology met in Moscow between July 15th and 17th and the heads of geological services met on the sidelines of the event where they announced the creation of this platform.
This is yet another example of BRICS creating its own institutions for a future life without a dominant and domineering West.
That’s it for another eventful week. Many thanks for your views, subscriptions, likes, shares and comments. Best Rob
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The wise and knowledgeable Dmitry Orlov points out that China’s exports to the US are massive, including essential components for the MIC. China also holds US treasury bonds worth close to a TRI 0.00%↑ llion and the US would be in deep dodo should China sell them - though it would not be profitable for them to do so at this point. I would suggest that China has a much better ‘hand’ than its opponent who has nothing more to play than the bluff. But as Orlov suggests, the US needs an enemy just as a vampire needs blood. The MIC must be satiated. So the US will huff, puff and bluff so that the cogs in the wheels of war will turn and turn in support of a conflict that will never be fought. But as long as those wishing to profit are satisfied - who cares! George Orwell would have been impressed.
After the further machinations of Nato I'm now of the view that Russia must take over all of Ukraine or install a puppet government to govern Western Ukraine. The problem is clear now that Nato will continue to invest even in a rump state Ukraine to cause trouble for Russia. It might have a moderating effect on Poland, Romania etc to have a Russian army on their doorstep with no buffer state in between. I have been speaking to some Latvian Russians about the war. I got the impression the Russians have a heavy heart fighting most of the Ukrainians with the exception of the Nazis who come mostly from the areas most likely to dodge the draft. I think once the Russians get into western Ukraine the killing will increase exponentially- with a lighter heart- which is perhaps another reason for Ukraine to surrender before that happens. I didn't quite realise how lucky Trump was. Looks like he moved his head just a millisecond before impact. Melania must be fuming. I thought the shooter was in front of Trump but he was actually to the right hand side of Trump's position. There was a good article on Yellen etc. There's speculation that the democrats and their deep state supporters are about to cause economic chaos in the US on the eve of/ or after a fresh Trump presidency, hence Yellen's presaging comments about the dollar, which have to be viewed in that context.
Excellent update, Dr Rob! Really covers all the important stuff in a clear and concise way. Will come here more often!