This week has been relatively quiet in terms of world events, though there has been a military coup in the former French Colony of Gabon. In the US, it appears that Ukraine funding will continue to flow, which will please the Biden camp. But Trump has been released on bail and the Republicans are building up a case to impeach Sleepy Joe. So who knows what will happen there. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians continue to bludgeon themselves to death in Rabotino and Verbove down south while the Russians are making steady progress outside Kupyansk in the north. Z has announced full mobilisation and has hinted that the Russians will not be defeated this year. He is preparing the Ukrainians for a long war in which Western funds can no longer be guaranteed as support for the war declines rapidly in the US. The Ukrainian drone and artillery attacks have increased quite considerably this week but Russia’s response has been much more devastating. And finally, the Russians buried a hero and a villain in the same grave at St Petersburg.
Total Ukrainian Mobilization (of Russian speaking people that is).
It appears that Ukraine will soon embark on Total Mobilisation, targeting Russian speaking areas in the east and south - e.g. Sumy, Kharkov and Dnipro. Z will also be clamping down on those who have managed to escape the war through an exemption. It appears that Ukraine will be trying to mobilise between 250,000 - 500,000 men during the autumn and winter, according to Alexander Mercouris’s sources.
A Ukrainian judge has apparently ruled that Zelensky’s mobilisation law is not binding on Ukrainian citizens according to South Front. Slavyangrad is reporting that Metro workers in Kharkov are being issued subpoenas via their employer to report for mobilisation - so it will be interesting to see if any of these people can escape the ‘draft’ through this legislation. The fact that essential workers are being mobilised is a telling sign of Ukraine’s desperate manpower shortages.
Security Guarantees
Around 30 countries (out of 195) have now signed some sort of declaration to provide Ukraine with security guarantees. But it’s guarantees are not worth the paper they are written on. This is about as much use to Ukraine as French and British guarantees were to Poland in 1939.
Zelensky Interview
On August 27th Zelensky gave an interview to a Ukrainian broadcaster in which he talked about elections, among other things. He discussed the problems in holding elections in wartime and suggested that they can be held only if the US and the EU contribute $5 billions dollars - according to Slavyangrad. Z has expressed his opposition to elections recently but his change of heart came following a visit from a US delegation which urged him to call elections in 2024. The delegation included Republican Senator Lindsay Graham along with Democrats Richard Blumenthal and Elizabeth Warren. Z used the opportunity to beg for more cash. If you would like some astute political analysis of his speech watch this from the Duran (30 mins). Alexander Mercouris suggests that Z’s tone has changed from a sort of triumphalism not so long ago to a defiant acceptance that even though the offensive has failed Ukraine will go on fighting. In Mercouris’s view, the Great Z is creating a ‘stab in the back’ narrative in which Britain is being blamed for pulling Ukraine out of the Istanbul Agreement more than a year ago (which is wholly justified) and the West, generally, is being blamed for not providing sufficient military resources. Z also has a romantic notion that his country can emulate Israel’s achievement in surviving as a state surrounded by enemies. Z’s words were directed primarily at the Ukrainian people who will have been hopeful that the offensive would succeed and Russia defeated. The people must now be prepared for the fact that neither of these things will happen and that Ukraine must become less reliant on Western aid (which is likely to decrease). He did not tell the people that Ukraine cannot survive without Western aid.
Crumbling Support?
Media
There have been signs in the legacy media that support for Ukraine could be declining, especially and most importantly in the US. Larry Johnson, who is ex-CIA has done an interesting article on this development here. Larry points out that when the CIA disagrees on policy it leaks information to the media. The articles about the dismal failure of Ukraine’s offensive, he argues, have originated in the intelligence services. Such articles not only deliver a pessimistic prognosis, they serve to place the blame for the failure firmly at the feet of the Ukrainians.
Biden
Bloomberg is reporting that sleepy Joe Biden may try to get Ukraine to negotiate following the failed offensive, and that this is concerning his European allies, according to Pravda. Biden is facing increased opposition to aid packages and won’t want the Ukraine war dragging on into the campaigning season next year. Bloomberg also noted that continuing US aid was predicated on Ukraine’s success in taking back territory, which it has so far failed to do.
Poland
In Poland cars with Ukrainian number plates are being damaged by Polish citizens. According to refugees, license plates are stolen from cars, wheels are pierced and the bodywork of cars is being scratched. The Polish mainstream is reporting the full horror of the failed Ukrainian offensive so the Polish people will know that the war is not going well. Perhaps some will now be wanting negotiations so that the Ukrainians can leave.
Orban
Hungary’s Viktor Orban has angered Kiev by calling for the West to stop arming Ukraine and begin peace talks. If you would like to see his interview with Tucker Carlson here it is (30 mins).
The Pope
After the Pope said nice things about Russia’s history, he has been criticised by Kiev because he does not appear to be supporting Ukraine.
Ukrainian Coup?
Speculation about an Ukrainian coup has been around for a long time but with the collapse of the offensive it is, perhaps, more likely an event than it has been hitherto. Larry Johnson is among those who have recently expressed the view that a military coup against the Zelensky regime could be just around the corner.
Cluster Munitions
Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations, Zhang Jun, told a recent UN Security Council meeting that the use of cluster munitions in Ukraine could result in humanitarian disasters. The UN opposes the use of cluster bombs but appears incapable (or unwilling) to do anything about their use in Ukraine.
Pentagon Advice
The New York Times is reporting on a difference of opinion between the Pentagon and Ukrainian commander Syrsky who believes that troops should be redeployed from the failed offensive around Zaporizhzhe (including Rabotino) in order to prevent a Russian breakthrough at Kupyansk. Syrsky is concerned that the Russians could take back even more of the ground they lost in Ukraine’s Autumn offensive. But Pentagon analysts are suggesting that it is unlikely that the Russians will try to capture Kupyansk because their supply routes into the city, which is divided by the Oskil river, would be too precarious. They claim that ‘under similar circumstances’ last Autumn the Russians retreated from Kupyansk once attacked because of the supply situation. However, it could be argued that the current ‘circumstances’ are not at all similar to those of last Autumn when the Russians had only sparse forces in the area. The Washington Post is also reporting on the advice of Pentagon analysts who claim that Ukraine is expending too much artillery and is too reliant on expensive Chinese drones for reconnaissance. Best to do it the old way, they suggest, using the bodies of Ukrainians rather than expensive drones to survey the front. This is the worse case of armchair generalship I have seen for a while. The ‘elephant in the room’ is the fact that NATO doctrine needs air superiority in order for its strategy to work. If the US generals can’t see this - well - they are either extremely dense or lying through their teeth.
Wounded Ukrainians Lack Medical Care
Many wounded Ukrainian soldiers who could have survived are not doing so because their army lacks adequate medical care and the ability to evacuate them from the battlefield, according to the Spectator (as reported by Slavyangrad). If wounded men are left overnight, many of them will not survive (are not surviving) - and this will get worse over the winter. Scott Ritter has been reporting on this for many months. A Ukrainian journalist has written an article which points to these delays in getting wounded soldiers to hospital. Wounded soldiers are a very low priority as far as the Ukrainian military is concerned. You can read extracts from the article here.
Ukraine Terror Attacks
On August 26th and 27th Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod and Kherson regions, as well as the DPR all suffered massive Ukrainian shelling. At least one person was killed and another 12 were wounded according to the Military Chronicle. The dead person was killed by shell fragments in the village of Shchetinovka in Belgorod. Six people were injured on the 27th August following a cluster bomb attack on the village of Urazovo in Belgorod while four children and three adults were injured by cluster bomb attacks in different districts of Donetsk city on the same day, according to Rybar. The Donetsk agglomeration was subject to massive shelling with cluster ammunition on the 29th. In Gorlovka district, three employees of the local dairy were killed instantly by shelling. On the same day in Klimovo (Bryansk), up to five children were killed by MLRS strikes: one died in her playground. On August 30th, the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka, in Belgorod region, was attacked. Some power lines were damaged but no casualties have been reported. On the 30th August the Donetsk region suffered from heavy shelling and seven people were injured at a shopping centre. The Petrovsky and Kirovsky districts of Donetsk were targeted again on the 31st with rockets and cluster artillery. If you are in any doubt about the Ukrainian’s intension to target civilians with unsavoury devices have a look at this from Cafe Revolution (10 mins).
Prigozhin Buried
Yevgeny Prigozhin was buried in St. Petersburg this week. If you would like an in depth analysis of his killing and those suspected of committing the deed, Simplicius provides it here. The Wagner commander Dmitry Utkin was buried near Moscow with full military honours. He was 53. Maybe his funeral deserved as much attention as that of Yevgeny.
The Sea War
At midnight on the 30th August:
…an aircraft from the Black Sea Fleet's naval aviation destroyed four high-speed military boats carrying Ukrainian special operations forces personnel, totaling up to 50 individuals, in the Black Sea waters.
Also on 30 August 2023, the Russian MoD reported that east of Zmeiny Island in the Black Sea, a Su-30 naval aviation aircraft destroyed an AFU high-speed military boat with its crew. These appear to have been separate incidents. It appears that the Russians are destroying around seven Ukrainian boats a day, according to Rybar.
The Air War (below is a Russian S-400 air defence system)
Ukrainian Drone/Missile Attacks
The Economist, a British newspaper, is reporting (or admitting) that the West is assisting Ukraine drone attacks on civilian targets. The report stated that this assistance includes: ‘intelligence (often from Western partners) about radars, electronic warfare, and air-defense assets..’’ This week Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian territory have increased substantially, especially on August 30th. So, this section will be longer than it usually is.
Moscow
Early in the morning of the 26th August Moscow’s air defences destroyed an incoming drone. Another Moscow bound drone was destroyed on August 28th, according to Tass and at 3.30 am (Moscow time) the next day another solitary drone was shot down. On the 30th August a drone was disabled on the outskirts of Moscow and fell into a tree. The next day a Moscow bound drone was destroyed and another was taken down on the morning of September 1st.
Belgorod
On 26th August a Ukrainian drone was shot down over the Shebekinsky District of the Belgorod region. There were no casualties. But on the same day a cluster bomb attack injured around six people one of whom is in a serious condition. Later in the day another drone was shot down, according to the Russian MoD. Late on the 28th August an ‘aircraft-type’ drone was shot down by Russia’s air defences.
Kursk
On the 27th August, a disabled drone fell onto an apartment building in the middle of Kursk city centre but no one was injured. On September 1st, two drones caused damage to buildings in Kurchatov, not far from the nuclear power plant.
Bryansk
A drone was shot down by Russian air defences over Bryansk on August 27th according to Sputnik. Later the same day two more drones were shot down and another ‘aircraft type’ drone was shot down on the 30th August - no casualties were reported. Altogether, seven aircraft-type drones were intercepted. Debris from some of them fell on the 16th building of the Kremniy EL plant, the largest manufacturer of microelectronics, and damaged a building used by the investigative committee in the Soviet district. On the last day of August another three drones were shot down over Bryansk.
Crimea
Around 10.30 am on August 28th two reconnaissance drones were shot down over Crimea, according to the Russian MoD. A Neptune anti-ship missile was also shot down and a Ukrainian cruise missile was destroyed off the Crimean coast. On the same day two Western reconnaissance drones which encroached too close to Russian territory were forced to change course following the intervention of two Russian jets. At noon on the 29th, a Russian naval aircraft destroyed a drone over the Black Sea.
Tula
On August 29th, two ‘aircraft - type’ Ukrainian drones were shot down by Russia’s air defence system over the Tula region according to Sputnik (see map).
Pskov
Following the launch of 21 Ukrainian drones towards the north of Russia, some managed to get through to a military/civilian airport in Pskov (west of St. Petersburg) at 1 am on the 30th August. Four planes (i.e. 70 year old transport aircraft) were damaged, two of which were set on fire. This has the potential to be a good optics win for Ukrainians if they can get film of the burning aircraft. Tass reported on it here. There were no casualties. There is speculation among some that the strike could have been launched from Latvia or Estonia with British involvement. The Russian MoD is investigating the route taken by the drones. A recent report speaks of an object being shot out of the skies over Pskov on August 31st.
Kaluga
On August 30th, a drone was shot down over the Sukhinichsky district causing no damage - but another drone was disabled over Dzerzhinsky district and fell into an oil storage facility causing a fire which was quickly extinguished.
Ryazan
Two drones were shot down over the city of Ryazan - which is 122 miles south east of Moscow. They caused no damage.
Oryol
Two drones were also shot down over Oryol which is north of Kursk. They inflicted no damage.
Russian Drone/Missile Attacks
On the night of August 26th/27th, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a strike with long-range airborne high-precision weapons against an airfield near Pinchuky (Kiev region). Russian missiles attacked and destroyed a whole train load of ammunition along with some tanks or armoured vehicles at Dorozhnoe, according to the Russian MoD.
On the 30th August Russia launched another large missile/drone attack which focused on targets in Kiev, Odesa, Cherkasy and Zhytomyr regions. This is being reported as one of the most intense attacks since the spring. On August 31st the Russians destroyed the tactical headquarters of the Ukrainian 24th Brigade near Pokrovsi (Donetsk), according to Dima on the Military Summary Channel. On Sept 1st Russian missiles destroyed a command and control centre along with about 100 Ukrainian troops of the 53rd Mechanised Brigade in the Selidove area1 south of Pokrovsi.
The Ground War
The Russian MoD ‘clobber list’ changed format on Friday 1st September when it showed weekly rather than daily figures. Using the daily figures (except for Friday’s which was not provided) the average daily deaths were around 700. But the weekly figures, which totaled 5660, gave an average of 800 deaths per day.
A Russian Offensive?
Last week I reported on the views of some major figures regarding the coming Russian offensive. Yevgeny Balitsky and others were predicting a large scale Russian offensive in September and Ex Russian General Krivonos said that an offensive could take place soon in the Kharkov region which could cut off the Ukrianian army in the east. This week the speculation is still with us. A Ukrainian source (Unian) is reporting a build up of about 110,000 personnel in the Kupyansk and the Krasnoliman direction - as reported by Slavyangrad. The Russians are still advancing here. The Ukrainians must be expecting a Russian advance on Kharkov city because they are blocking the roads through settlements such as Pitomnik, Borschevaya, Cherkasskie and Tishki (according to Slavyangrad).
Garland Nixon takes another view (on the prospects of an offensive). He believes that the Russians will continue to wear the Ukrainians down until the fall of 2024 and won’t launch any large scale offensives. He reasons that this is the time when the Biden administration will be desperate for a deal of some sort and that the Russians will take advantage of this. Personally, I can’t see the Ukrainian army lasting that long.
The Ukrainian Offensive - Why It Failed
The Plan
The Reality
The above maps are taken from Big Serge’s detailed and excellent analysis of the Ukrainian offensive which you can access here. I can’t recommend it highly enough. But if you would like a less detailed, but well argued/well presented account , Scott from Kalibrated may suit you better (see below).
Rabotino and Verbove
On the 26th August the Russians still held the southern outskirts of the village so talk of the Ukrainians taking the whole village were premature. Some reports have suggested that the Ukrainians captured the whole village at some point but then lost part of it. Slavyangrad is reporting that 60,000 troops have been involved in this pointless assault - including nine brigades (probably depleted in strength) and a battalion. On August 28th the Ukrainians attacked at Robatino with a column of 80 vehicles and were able to push into the ‘grey zone’. They were then attacked by Russian artillery which accounted for an estimated 35 vehicles. Bradleys, Strykers, Leopards, and, for the first time, Challenger 2 tanks formed part of the striking force. Russian forces were still clinging to the southern outskirts of the village by the end of the week. In terms of drama, Robatino is becoming a mini-Bakhmut. The Ukrainians appear determined to push through to Tokmak and the Russians will be equally determined to stop them. So this is becoming a crucial theatre of the war along with Kupyansk in the north.
The Ukrainians have also been attempting to push through at Verbove to the east of Rabotino but have been pushed back. In both areas the use of armoured vehicles has decreased and the amount of infantry deployed has increased. All Ukrainian attacks in this area on August 30th were repelled according to the Military Chronicle. Further attacks on Verbove were repelled on August 31st and on the first day of September a 200 strong force advanced from the north towards Rabotino: 156 of them were killed or wounded, according to Slavyangrad. If you would like a well presented and well analysed account of the Ukrainian offensive in this area have a look at this from Scott of Kalibrated (22 mins). The 73rd Jaeger Brigade, which is one of the last of Ukraine’s reserve Brigades, has been deployed to Zaporizhzhe, according to Slavyangrad.
Kupyansk
Boris Rozhin is reporting that the Russians are advancing at the rate of one kilometre a day in Svatave/Kupyansk. Ukrainian counter-attacks are not strong enough to stabilise the situation (google translate will be needed). The Ukrainians have reinforced this area and and have continued to launch counter-attacks throughout the week - but so far none of these has succeeded, according to Tass.
Vremievsky ledge
Fighting continues here in the form of artillery duels. The Ukrainian shelling goes on day and night according to Slavyangrad.
Artyomovsk
The situation in the city has been described by Russian sources as stable. To the south of Artyomovsk, the Russians are counter attacking in the Kleshcheevka area regaining control of some important heights.
Kherson
On August 26th, Ukrainian DRGs tried to land in three boats on Borshchevoy Island south of the village of Veletensky but when they came under artillery fire, they retreated (link disappeared). On the 27th, they also tried unsuccessfully to land on Melky Island in the Dniepr.
These are the main areas of conflict but artillery duels are being conducted all along the front lines.
The Economic War
Russian Oil To Europe
Politico is reporting that in spite of sanctions, refined diesel, kerosene and other fuels derived from Russian oil are pouring into Europe. A loophole in the sanctions rules allows the import of products refined from Russian oil by third parties such as India or China. The Ukrainians are furious. The Russians are benefiting from recent cuts in oil production which has raised prices. On August 31st the Russians concluded a new deal with OPEQ+ that may extend the cuts further, according to Tass. The new deal will be published next week.
Russian LNG
Russia is set to export a record amount of LNG to Europe this year, according to RT. For some reason the input of Russian LNG is not prohibited by any of the ten or eleven sanctions packages.
The Grain Deal
There has been some talk about resurrecting the grain deal which is likely to be discussed when Putin meets with Erdogan. Lavrov has already had talks with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, about the conditions that must be satisfied in order for the deal to be revived. These include a commitment from the West that it will uphold its side of the bargain. Some hope!
World Politics
Ben Wallace Resigns
We all knew this was coming but the British Defence Minister has gone sooner than we thought. Maria Zakharova bade him farewell:
[Let’s] bid farewell to the character responsible for the contamination of Ukrainian lands with radiation through the supply of shells with depleted uranium to Kiev; Agent 006 has ingloriously left the battlefield.
Estonia
In a move reminiscent of Nazi Germany in the 1930s, Estonia’s government is withholding the right to vote from Russian and Belorussian citizens. These Baltic countries don’t even pretend to be democracies any more.
Africa
There is much unrest in some African countries at the moment, which could impact on the fight between the West and Russia. The last vestiges of European colonial rule are being removed and the Europeans will not be pleased that this is happening. If they take part in any military interventions a war between states in Africa could be triggered.
Niger
The Niger rebels have asked the German ambassador to leave the country, according to Tass. The French ambassador has also been asked to leave. When he failed to depart by the deadline given, the rebels cut off the water and electricity supply to the embassy. Emmanuel Macron, who was a little miffed by Victoria Newland’s meddling in Niger, has said that he will support military action by ECOWAS if it decides to intervene. Precisely what form this support will take is not clear from Sputnik's article. It could take the form of air support but is unlikely to include support from French troops on the ground, I would have thought: because that would be too inflammatory. On August 31st, the rebel Niger government suspended the activities of NGO and UN groups in the country.
Gabon
A military coup has taken place in Gabon and the former president has been placed under house arrest, according to RT. Gabon is at the bottom left of the above map - just beneath Cameroon.
Congo
There have been protests in Congo against the UN ‘peacekeeping’ force of 14,000 troops which is stationed there. Ten people were killed and 20 injured as protesters clashed with police. Someone from Slavyangrad commented: ‘The increasing rejection of colonial institutions and their representatives in African nations is becoming more apparent’. Congo is east of Gabon on the above map.
Nigeria
Nigeria is suffering lots of civil unrest at the moment with clashes between anti-government forces and the police/military. Islamic State groups have been involved and many terrorists have been killed or imprisoned. The dire economic situation and the withdrawal of fuel subsidies have contributed to the unrest. You can read more about it here.
The Emerging Multi-Polar World Order
BRICS
The BRICS countries want a Multi-Polar world; they do not want to take over hegemony from the US. Most of you will know this already. In an interview with Sputnik, Nelson Wong, the president of the Shanghai Centre for RimPac Strategic and International Studies made this clear when he said:
….the Cold War days are not something we want to go back to, any effort that might potentially lead to the world to be split up again should be cautioned [against].
BRICS will seek to engage with Western countries as equals in a world order where each country respects the culture, traditions and sovereignty of the other. It is a laudable aim that relies upon unity among the BRICS countries and cooperation from the West. It remains to be seen whether these aims can achieve realization.
Apparently, Serbia is keen on joining BRICS with two thirds of Serbians in favour. "The Socialist Movement," led by Aleksandar Vulin, has petitioned parliament to allow an application to be made.
That’s it for this week: a shorter read than last week, I think (hope). Many thanks for your views, likes, subscriptions and kind remarks (and any dislikes - at least you made the effort!). Please share as much as you can: I have very little scope to do this but would like to reach more people.
Best wishes
Rob
You will need to use Google Translate
Thanks for that Richard. I'll leave posting until next week - maybe he will have been in touch by then. Are the comments you just made on my substack available on one of your substack posts? I may do another section on the Russian Offensive this week and I may want to quote from it if that's OK. I won't do it unless commentators are talking about it.
Response to Dr. Rob Campbell's "Ukraine Weekly Update"
Excellent recap. Concise and accurate.
Two points:
1) Zelensky says he wants to raise another 250-500,000 men. First, good luck with that, Z. Second, he's losing between 60-100,000 men per month (and rising which is why the average daily is getting closer to 800/day), so even if he gets 500,000, that will last less than 5 months - and be utterly useless on the field much sooner than that due to loss of combat and operational effectiveness - which the Ukraine army is already showing due to an inability to achieve any significant operational objectives.
2) Garland Nixon has no clue. While the overall war itself may well continue through summer of 2024, the collapse of the Ukrainian army is due within the next three months, given the loss rate mentioned above. At that point, there is no reason for the Russian army NOT to launch a major advance, however slowly it actually advances. I expect Russia to continue to minimize its own casualties going forward. This does not preclude a major advance once Russia has rolled up the current Ukrainian defenses and shorted the line of contact, enabling Russia to consolidate its forces into a much more dangerous concentrated force which the remnants of the Ukrainian army will be utterly unable to do significant damage to.
In other words, the sequence of events should be:
1) Within the next one to three months the Ukrainian army begins to collapse and is forced to retreat to the other side of the Dnieper, likely being forced to abandon much of its remaining heavy equipment.
2) Russian army inflicts heavy casualties on the retreating Ukrainians, because a retreating army which does not have the power to perform a credible fighting retreat always takes heavy casualties. See the Iraqi "Highway of Death."
3) Russia will roll up the contact line east of the Dnieper and consolidate the bulk of its forces into a line much shorter than the current 800-1000km. Unclear how long this will take and whether Russia will finish it before spring. I suspect they will, certainly by end of spring, 2024.
4) Russia will then advance to the Dnieper, making sure not to leave significant Ukrainian units remaining east of the river, although one can expect various "left behind" guerrilla units to remain while being completely ineffective against the consolidated Russian army. Russian military police, GRU/SVR/FSB and Rosqvardia will take over security in the Ukrainian cities east of the Dnieper.
5) Russia will then have to decide whether to cross the Dnieper now or continue to pound the Ukrainians across the Dnieper until they are further weakened and unable to offer significant resistance to a Russian crossing. No guess as to how long this will take.
6) The Russians cross the Dnieper. Now the decision has to be made whether to proceed directly to Kiev or diverge and take the southern Ukrainian cities - Nikolaiev, Odessa, etc. This decision will depend on how many effective Ukrainian units remains in those cities which can threaten the Russian flanks. If those units come out to fight, they will be unable to deal with the concentrated Russian army and thus be annihilated. If they remain in the cities, the cities can be bypassed and the Russians can concentrate on reaching Kiev.
7) Assuming the latter, by summer, 2024, Russia reaches and surrounds Kiev. This assumes the Kiev regime has not 1) collapsed, or 2) surrendered, or 3) fled westward into Poland to form a "government-in-exile."
The operation in Kiev will be on the Syrian model: 1) surround the city; 2) cut off logistical resupply (water, electricity, food); 3) make probing attacks to locate enemy resistance; 4) send in the Chechens to deal with said resistance piecemeal; 5) wait for the city to fall. This could take days, weeks or months which is why a timetable is impossible to estimate.
Beyond this, it's hard to predict what will happen. I expect once Kiev falls, the Russians will take western Ukraine to the Polish border. This will be affected by whether Poland or NATO itself attempts an intervention either now or before Kiev is taken. Obviously, this would change the entire situation.