Ukraine Weekly Update
3rd May 2024
This is another one of those weeks when the prospect of things happening is more interesting and important than things that have actually happened, according to my perspective anyway. In the Middle East, Rafah has not yet been attacked in force, a ceasefire in Gaza has not yet happened and the ICC, nervous at the US congress’s reaction, has not yet issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and co. Some say the ICC will lose all credibility as an independent organisation if it fails to do so. How they can issue an arrest for Putin and not do so for Netanyahu is ridiculous but its doesn’t surprise me. Many of us have known for years that all the big international organisations - the WHO, WEF, UN, NATO, ICC, IMF etc. etc. have been instruments of Empire. I would keep the UN and reform it. But I would reject the rest and create new institutions that are needed for the economic and social cooperation of nations globally. I think we need some system of international law but this must create laws that do not impinge on the different cultures, political systems or the moral and social systems that each country must be allowed to chose and manage itself.
In the US, Pro-Palestine protests at University Campuses have been dealt with harshly by the police as the Western establishment clamps down on such protesters all around the Western world. But not every radical is happy with the ‘cult like’ actions of the protesters who, according to some, are being funded by George Soros. Joe Rogan is particularly scathing of their actions in taking over campuses. Some are calling the protesters ‘paid agitators’ according to Zero Hedge. The situation is complicated and I have no time to deal with it here. I have been an activist present at many, many protests over 30 years but I have never supported violence from anyone involved. I have never agreed with the destruction of property either. Yet, it seems, some of my former comrades have abandoned these ‘red lines’ just as they have abandoned the sanctity of free speech.
In Ukraine, the Russians are slowly grinding down the Ukrainian army and there is the prospect of a major Ukrainian collapse and/or a major Russian offensive. Signs of collapse are evident due to manpower/materiel shortages but no one can say for sure when it will happen.
Another event many are anticipating is an attack on the Kerch Bridge, which even I, the arch optimist, am expecting to happen sooner or later.
Front Line Cats c/o The Two Majors
For cat lovers: I’ll do something for dog lovers another time.
May Day - Trophy Exhibition Opens in Moscow
Workers all over the world have been celebrating May day and Russia marked it be opening an exhibition of captured NATO equipment at Victory Parade in Moscow.
Shoigu Demands More Supplies
Tass is reporting that at a meeting with his military chiefs on May 1st, Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu demanded more supplies for the fronts ‘to support the needed rate of advance in the special operations zone’. This appears to be saying that the current rate of advance will be maintained or even increased as part of an offensive. Shoigu also said that this would be done in accordance with the ‘plan’ that is part of the SMO. Shoigu also pointed out that the Ukrainians have lost 111,000 troops this year.
Odessa Massacre - 2nd May 2014
May 2nd marked the tenth anniversary of the Odessa tragedy. Ukrainian nationalists and supporters of the coup d’état set fire to the House of Trade Unions, where representatives of the "anti-Maidan" movement had sought refuge. 48 people were burned alive and over 200 were injured. The Ukrainian authorities have never investigated the incident. You can read more about the tragedy at Tass.
Russia Phobic Bill
Ukrainian RADA is processing a Bill that will allow employers to sack any employee who does not reveal that they have relatives in Russia.
Ukraine Suspends Convention on Human Rights
Ukraine has formally suspended the operation of the Convention on Human Rights and Freedoms. According to Rybar:
Ukrainian authorities plan to officially renounce the inviolability of the home, freedom of movement and speech, and the right to assembly - things that have long been disregarded in practice.
Ukraine can no longer distance itself from authoritarian regimes because it is one.
Rishi - We Will Back You Forever
Rishi Sunak has promised to provide Ukraine with military aid until 2030 that’s if Ukraine still exists then.
‘Harry Potter’ Castle Burned Down In Odessa
The Palace of Students of the Odessa Law Academy was accidentally set on fire by Ukrainian air defence missiles on the 29th April - though the legacy media is blaming the Russians. I have no idea who is telling the truth but it’s a shame (lovely building). The structure was known as the Harry Potter Castle because of its similarities with Hogwarts castle in the British book/film series.
ATACMS
The US has been supplying these long range missiles for a while, apparently. Efforts have been made to convince the general public that Ukraine has a right to kill and maim the innocent civilians who will become victims of these missiles on Russian soil. No one should be surprised by this because it is part of Western flexibility when it comes to morality. I know - I have said this before. Let’s face it, Western leaders who can allow the genocide in Gaza to continue or the complete elimination of Ukraine’s manhood to be achieved are not moral in any sense.
‘We Have Nothing!’ - Krivonos
General Sergei Krivonos exclaimed angrily on live TV that the Ukrainians have no ammunition for artillery. There are even shortages of small arms ammunition. Military operations cannot rely solely on the sacrifice of soldiers’ lives he said. Abandoned factories should have been converted to produce arms but corruption got in the way of this:
If we (the Ukrainian authorities) had not embezzled funds but instead invested them, we could have allocated 25-35 million - no more, but unfortunately, this is not the case! We have numerous factories capable of quickly repairing equipment, but unfortunately, this is not happening.
Where Are Our Defences? Ukrainians ask.
Ukrainian soldiers are lamenting the fact that the defences to their rear, on which they were hoping to rely once they are forced to retreat - are not there. Apparently, companies charged with building these defences are not doing so, due to the risks involved, or are exaggerating the strength of those defences they have built.
‘Donbass Will Fall in October’ - Ukraine Commanders
A Swiss news outlet, in an interview with several Ukrainian army officers asked for their views on the conflict. They suggested that defeat was inevitable and that the Donbass would fall in October when the Ukrainians will be obliged to negotiate with Putin, according to Blick. Another Ukrainian, deputy head of the GUR, Skibitsky, is equally pessimistic. He expects a Russian offensive by the end of May which will bring ‘dark days’ to Kharkov followed by the Russian capture of the Baltic States within a week. Wow! He certainly knows nothing about Russia’s capabilities yet alone her ambitions. But he may be correct in predicting a Russian offensive in Sumy and Kharkov regions and in accepting the strategic significance of Chasiv Yar. Some say that Bakhmut was significant strategically because it allowed access to the defensive citadel that is Chasov Yar, the most important link in the chain that constitutes the Donbass defence structure. The fall of Chasiv Yar, he said, is inevitable - as we all know. Skibitsky suggests that Ukraine cannot prevail without increased Western support.
Ukrainian Soldiers Appeal to the People
According to Geroman:
Soldiers of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd companies, the second battalion of the 68th Jaeger Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces express collective distrust of the brigade command and ask for the support of the people.
Desertions - Ukraine
According to Slavyangrad, 150,000 Ukrainians have deserted since the start of the SMO, mostly in the past six months. Cases against 4,000 deserters are registered every month and are clogging up the courts while the desertion rate is increasing.
According to Ukrainian channel legitimniy, training of military men in the West has been suspended due to desertions. They are running away from training bases and refusing to return home. This was happening last year, the source says, when morale in the army was average but now that the majority of soldiers are being forced to fight the problem will be much greater.
Conflict Within Ukraine’s Army
Some Ukrainian Telegram Channels are reporting a split within the army as elite Azov units (i.e. the Third Assault Brigade) refused Syrsky’s orders to defend Chasov Yar.. The Brigade also refused Syrsky’s orders to defend Ocheretino. According to legitimniy, Ermak and Z have been trying to ‘clean up’ the Azov type Brigades by sending them into the meat grinder. They are concerned that these Nazi Brigades could march on Kiev.
Russian Tank Production Up 350%
There seems to be lots of bad news for Ukraine this week, including the fact that Russian tank production/refurbishment has increased by 350% since 2022. To add insult to this injury, Russian output of ammunition rounds for tanks and infantry fighting vehicles increased by 900%, artillery shells by 600%, and munitions for MLRS by 800%. Three times as many unguided rockets for heavy flamethrower systems are also being produced.
Ukraine Terror Attacks
Many people out there, especially Russians, are fearful of an increase in Ukrainian terror attacks on Russian soil and it must be said that this is likely rather than merely possible. Ukraine’s army is too weak to make any significant and visible impact on the Russian army so the only way Ukraine’s administration can get the country seen is by attacking civilians or civilian infrastructure with the Kerch Bridge as the prize cow. Oh - and a nuclear catastrophe at Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which the Ukrainians are still attacking, may raise an eyebrow or two!
And Ukraine needs to be seen because it can exist only as a parasite; it needs the people of donor countries to be convinced that Ukraine can win in order to receive the aid that sustains it. The destruction of a part of the Kerch Bridge may do this to a gullible public led by the legacy media propagandists. Kerch could be Ukraine’s Kursk - at least that’s how much the MSM will try to beef the story up. ‘Russia’s military artery severed’, the headlines will shout. ‘Russia could face supply problems after the Kerch bridge collapses’ the gullible will be led to believe. But we know the truth: Kerch does not supply military goods to Ukraine, these come via other routes.
Boris Rozhin shares this realistic view that terrorist attacks will increase significantly and so will this section of the Update, maybe.
26th/27th April
Belgorod was shelled overnight and a power transmission line was damaged while industrial enterprises were attacked in Tyotkino (Kursk) causing a fire in one. Many villages were attacked in Kursk by shelling and drones, many of which were shot down or disabled electronically. 53 rounds were launched into the DPR where an explosive dropped from a drone killed one individual while two others were injured by drones. 66 drones were shot down at night over Krasnador.
28th April
On the afternoon of the 28th, a church in Alexandrovka (DPR) was attacked during the palm Sunday service killing at least one and injuring many others.
28th/29th April
According to the Two Majors, Belgorod and Kursk were shelled overnight along with the DPR where one civilian was killed and another wounded. In the Russian Republic of Karachay-Cherkessia (the Caucasus) near the village of Mara Ayagyu, terrorists attacked a traffic police post. Two officers were killed and four others injured but five of the assailants were also killed while another had his legs blown off. In a similar incident a week earlier two police officers were killed in their patrol car.
30th April at night
According to the Two Majors:
Over Belgorod in the morning an aerial target was shot down. Constant shelling of the region continues. In the Kursk region, Glushkovo, Gordeyevka, the Byrdina Farm, and Tyotkino were shelled.
In Kozino (Kursk) one woman was killed and another injured by shrapnel. Later, two more civilians were injured by shelling - according to Tass.
1st/2nd May
Belgorod and Kursk regions have constantly suffered shelling and drone attacks causing some damage but no casualties. 131 projectiles were launched into the DPR causing only one casualty. Smolensk, Bryansk, Oryol and Rostov were also attacked.
2nd/3rd May
8 ‘aircraft type’ drones were shot down over Belgorod. The Two Majors provided the following report which does not include casualties or damage but gives an idea of how widespread the attacks have been:
In the Kursk region, the villages of Gordeyevka in the Korenevka district, the villages of Gueyvo and Gornal in the Sudzhansky district, the village of Yelizavetovka, the Zarya Farm, the settlements of Krasnooktyabrsky and Novy Put in the Glushkovsky district, and the village of Iskra in the Khomutovsky district. Enemy drones were neutralised by EW equipment near the village of Begoshcha, Rylsky district, the village of Vnesazapnoye and the village of Gordeyevka, Korenevsky district, the village of Gornal, Sudzhansky district, the village of Dronovka and the village of Novy Put, Glushkovsky district. An explosive device was dropped from an AFU UAV in Tyotkino.
Two people were injured in the attacks on Belgorod and a petrol (gas) filling station was set alight in Shebekino.
The Sea War
26th/27th April
Two drones were shot down overnight in Crimea, according to the Military Chronicle.
According to the Two Majors:
AFU FPV drones attacked an oil refinery and infrastructure facilities in Krasnodar Krai at night. Up to 10 drones were shot down or suppressed in Slavyansk, Seversk and Kushchevsky districts. It is reported from the field that the fires have been extinguished.
17 drones attacked Ilyisk oil refinery causing a fire to the primary oil processing unit. The fire was quickly extinguished.
27th/28th April
At night, the enemy attacked air defense units at Cape Tarkhankut with ATACMS missiles and cluster warheads. Attempts are being made to destroy Russia’s air defences in preparation for a larger attack - so the experts are saying.
29th/30th April
Twelve Ukrainian ATACMS missiles attacked Dzhankoy and Simferopol in Crimea but were repelled by air defences.
1st May
One drone was shot down over Crimea at night.
The Air War
Brian Berletic, of the New Atlas, who I cannot recommend highly enough - if you want detailed technical stuff - provides an interesting and informative update on the Ukraine conflict here. Referring to the ATACMS missiles pictured above, he accounts for their failure, after great expectations, with reference to Russia’s superb electronic jamming systems. He also provides a critical examination of the latest US weapons package which is significant in the sense that no quantities for each item (e.g. Stinger Missiles) was provided. So we don’t know how much materiel Ukraine will receive (after the scavengers have taken their share).
Russian Drone/Missile Attacks
26th/27th April
According to the Two Majors:
Overnight, the RFAF launched a massive combined strike on enemy territory, using missile weapons from the Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3 and MiG-g-31K carriers of hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, and there were reports of Kalibr launches from the Black Sea. Explosions were reported in Chuguyev in Kharkov region, Stryi in Lvov region, Voznesensk in Nikolayev region, Kiev region, Khmelnitsky, Vinnitsa, Ivano-Frankovsk, Ternopol, Dnepropetrovsk regions.
On the night of the 27th, according to this source:
The strike targeted the Krivoy Rog Thermal Power Plant (TPP), Burshtyn TPP, and possibly the Pridneprovsk TPP. Several pumping stations near underground gas storage facilities in western Ukraine and Ukrainian Armed Forces’ military facilities near the Starokostiantyniv airfield were also destroyed. In some cases, targets were hit with 4 to 7 missiles.
A total of 32 missiles from air, ground, and sea-based platforms were likely used in the strike:
▪️ 9 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles from Tu-95 strategic bombers;
▪️ 9 guided air-to-surface missiles Kh-59/Kh-69;
▪️ 2 Iskander-K cruise missiles;
▪️ 4 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles from MiG-31K aircraft;
▪️ 8 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea.
Airfields in Dnepropetrovsk and Mykolaiv were damaged.
28th/29th April
The Russians attacked drone warehouses in Dnipropetrovsk overnight causing much damage and destroying many drones. Priluki and Starokonstantinov airfields in central and western Ukraine were also attacked along with deployment areas for foreign mercenaries. Mirgorod airfield in Poltava was also attacked.
29th/30th April
According to Rybar:
Over the past day, Russian forces struck targets on the territory of the so-called Ukraine. In the Kyiv district of Kharkiv, a missile hit a building of the Research Institute of Veterinary Medicine, which is used by the AFU, and in the Kholodnohorsk district, the strike hit railway infrastructure.
30th April/1st May
Overnight, the Headquarters of the Ukrainian armed forces at Kulikovo Pole Square in Odessa was hit by at least three missiles. It is thought that many of Ukraine’s commanders and some Western people were eliminated.
1st/2nd May Overnight
On the evening of the 1st May, a warehouse containing Western ammunition was destroyed. It is believed to have contained 155mm shells and that two Iskander K missiles did the work. Kharkov was also attacked.
In Kiev, an assembly shop and drone warehouse were destroyed. Hangers at Shkolny airfield were damaged. Warehouses containing military equipment at Kramatorsk and Slavyansk also came under fire.
Ukraine Missile/Drone Attacks
1st May
The Ukrainians attacked the Ryazan oil refinery, 120 miles south east of Moscow, causing a fire. A drone attacking the refinery at Voronezhnefteprodukt close to the village of Staraya Pokrovka (Voronezh) was shot down - according to Zero Hedge.
The Ground War
The Russians have gained around 400 square kilometres of ground this year - according to Sputnik.
Russian MoD Reports
w/e 12th April 6685 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 338.
w/e 19th April 7225 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 319.
w/e 26th April 8280 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 331.
w/e 3rd May 6665 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 283
Luhansk - Seversk
Fighting in this direction is concentrated on Kislovka and Terny.
Western Donetsk - Vuhledar
The Russians have managed to occupy the village of Urozhaynoye, which was taken by the Ukrainians in their summer offensive.
Kherson
There has been little change on this front during the past week. Fierce fighting continues around Krynki and the Antonovsky bridge.
Ocheretino
The Russians are now fighting west of Ocheretino and are 13 km away from the Pokrovsk - Konstantinovka highway. Once they reach the highway they will cut off Ukrainian logistics in the area. By the end of the week part of the village of Arkhangelskoye (Arkhanhelske) had been occupied by the Russians. There is a danger that large numbers Ukrainian soldiers could be cut off around Arkhangelskoye as the map below suggests.
Zaporozhye - Rabotino
On the 30th April, the Russians hoisted a flag on a building in the northern section of Rabotino - according to the Military Summary Channel. It appears that the Ukrainians have abandoned the village but sources conflict on this.
Chasov Yar
Chasov Yar, situated on high ground, is a hugely important settlement strategically because its capture would allow the Russians to achieve artillery dominance over the surrounding areas and advance westward into places the Ukrainians would have difficulty defending - according to Alexander Mercouris. Once Chasov Yar is taken, it is possible that the defence structure in the Donbass could collapse. Marat Khairullin has stated that 30,000 worn out Ukrainians are crammed into Chasov Yar.
Chasiv Yar - Ocheretino Pincer Movement
The above map is from Simplicius who provided a detailed and excellent Sitrep on May 1st. The map shows a possible Russian pincer movement from Chasov Yar and Ocheretino towards Konstantinovka. This is also discussed by b at the Moon of Alabama - May 3rd.
The Economic War
The EU is certainly losing the economic war and becoming irrelevant while, ‘Global’ (the RoW?) is doing really well. The Japanese economy is on the verge of collapse, according to this article by Hikaru Kitabayashi.
US Bans Russian Uranium
In another effort at self-flagellation, the US Senate has banned enriched uranium imports from Russia. The US will encourage the production of enriched uranium at home. However, the move is likely to increase the cost of enriched uranium by 20%. The bill still needs Biden’s approval. You can read more at RT.
World Politics
Western Idiots - Macron
Send in the Old Guard, Macron said, or something similar. The new Napoleon has announced that if Russia dares to break through Ukrainian lines or should the Ukrainians ask for assistance, French troops will be sent to fight Russians. The Kremlin views this as dangerous talk, according to Tass, which, of course, it is. But I doubt that Putin is perturbed.
Western Idiots - Stoltenberg (Again).
He’s been at it again - i.e. showing how stupid he is. This time he has called the build up of ‘trophy’ vehicles in Moscow as ‘hybrid aggression by the Russian side’. Hold on Jens me lad. Clear your ears out and listen. The vehicles you see were sent by Westerners so that Ukrainians could aggressively kill and maim Russian civilians and soldiers alike. The display of the vehicles may cause embarrassment to Westerns but is hardly aggressive.1
The term hybrid suggests a combination of two things but it is not at all clear which two elements make up Russian hybrid aggression? Those vehicles could be regarded as being in a state of post aggression (or maybe they are simply past aggression) so they are no longer the vengeful vehicles that adorned the Ukrainian battlefields in search of blood. This is simply Orwellian Speak by our dear Stolty.
Anyway, I don’t see how these defeated vehicles can be representative of anything but the futility and destruction involved in war. Their display also provides a reminder to the West that funding Ukraine to continue this aggression is futile and destructive.
Did you hear that Stolty boy?
Western Idiots - Blinken
Anthony Blinken visited China last week in an effort to persuade the Chinese to stop supporting the Russians and threatening sanctions if they refuse. He met with foreign minister Wang Yi who made some scathing comments about the US including this:
When it comes to politics, the United States is primarily a country that sows chaos and creates numerous serious problems in the Asia-Pacific region, and which influences the situation in the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. China seeks to facilitate sustainable development of the US-Chinese relations based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and mutually beneficial cooperation.
I’ve heard that Xi wasn’t at all pleased to see Blinken (as he seems to be saying in this photo), and was happy when he left. Blinken himself must have felt snubbed as he was deprived of the normal ‘red carpet’ treatment. This blinking2 man can lie comfortably and damagingly to the whole world, yet appear morally superior - while keeping a straight face at all times. Such people don’t deserve the red carpet.
At the WEF, Anthony Blinken reinforced the narrative that Russia has failed by falsely claiming that Russia’s aim was to wipe Ukraine from the map. I suppose that a diplomat in Blinky’s position has no choice but to attempt a reconstruction of reality! Russia may want Russian speaking areas of Ukraine in the east and south but I can’t see any reason why it would want Westernised areas such as Lviv. Doh!
The emerging Multi-Polar World Order
Empire Falling
According to US political commentator, David Ignatius, writing for the Washington Post, the US Empire is falling and the tell tale signs that show him this include:
a slowdown in productivity growth, an aging population, a polarized political system (as the authors gently called the political crisis) and a corrupt information environment. External problems included the Chinese threat and the loss of Washington’s authority among developing countries. Analysts believe the situation is getting worse day by day.
Furthermore his report highlights other factors that are characteristic of empires in decline such as:
an addiction to luxury, an inability to keep pace with technological progress, an ossified bureaucracy, excessive military forces, and self-interested and warring elites. Ignatius believes that all this is typical for the United States.
Ignatius is still hopeful that the US can avoid catastrophe if the ruling elites get their act together - which is not likely imv.
Bolivia
Sergey Lavrov visited Bolivia last week where foreign minister Celinda Lunda criticised the US for being the ‘bully in the yard’ and confirmed the country’s intension to apply for BRICS+ membership.
Hey - that’s it for another week that anticipated great events. I appreciate your views, subscriptions, shares (always good to know that you enjoyed it enough to share it), your likes, and your comments. Best wishes - Rob
Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.
The inventions of terms which have not had the chance to be defined may appear clever but it’s not. I think that most of the world’s leaders will see this for what it is: an Orwellian attempt to obfuscate the truth of Western aggression. Annoyingly, philosophers do lots of this, i.e. inventing terms, especially the postmodernists. But I have to concede that as a philosopher I have also been guilty.
Google it.
"I can’t see any reason why it would want Westernised areas such as Lviv. "
Wrong. Just like everyone else who has commented on the outcome of this war. And I mean EVERYONE ELSE.
I - and I alone, except for a couple people on Moon of Alabama - have been saying since April, 2022, that Russia will take ALL of Ukraine right to the Polish and Romanian borders. First, because it's a requirement for Russia's national security against NATO, in particular because of the Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania which can only be countered by placing Russian air defenses as close to them as possible, and 2nd, because no one is dumb enough to surrender territory to one's enemies that will be subsequently be used by them against you; that's War 101.
Giving a "rump Ukraine" to NATO just means more trouble. The Russians (hopefully) aren't as dumb as people who think they will do that.
I know this nonsense about a "rump Ukraine" has been a mainstay of the so-called "experts" for the entire war, but it's completely stupid and without any basis whatsoever from the Russian side, other than Putin has hinted he really doesn't care about western Ukraine or that he recognizes that Poland would like to seize western Ukraine. Those statements mean nothing compared to Russia's objective national security requirements.
It also seems to be based on the negotiations in March and April, 2022, when Putin was apparently dumb enough to accept a version of Minsk 2 aka the agreement reached by Ukraine and Russia at that time. Subsequently of course that was refuted by Ukraine and the West, leading to Putin complaining that he had been "played" - which of course he was. Since then he's made it clear that he's learned the West can't be trusted.
People like Alexander Mercouris keep claiming that "we would have had peace" in April, 2022, if the West hadn't told Ukraine to back away from the peace process. That's utter nonsense. All such a deal would have meant is that eventually Ukraine and the West would have reneged on it, just like they reneged on Minsk 2. So Russia would have had to fight the war in six months or a year or two years or five years later under probably worse conditions. So "peace" was not an option and I'm surprised Putin was dumb enough to fall for that. Perhaps he had some plan to achieve more comprehensive results once the conflict stopped, but there's no evidence for that.
But the Russian General Staff was not so stupid. They knew Putin's initial plan was a non-starter, so they constructed a contingency plan: take the entirety of Ukraine off the board permanently and put a Military District in western Ukraine with 400,000 or more Russian troops, 1,500 tanks, air bases with Mig-31Ks loaded with Kinzhals, a naval base in Odessa, S-350, S-350, S-400, S-500, S-550 air defenses, the whole nine yards.
In other words, construct an "Iron Curtain 2.0" from the Black Sea to the Arctic, to join the integration of Belarus' army with the Russian army and the establishment of new Military Districts further north. This is WHY the Russian army is expanding to two million men.
Then of course there was the whole "Russia is afraid of an Ukrainian insurgency" bullshit the so-called "experts" came up with. Forgetting that the Soviet Union already did that for ten years at the end of WWII, killing 200,000 Ukrainians. Not to mention that Russia has already done four insurgencies since then: one in Afghanistan (failed), twice in Chechnya (one fail, one success) and once in Syria (success). Been there, done that, got the T-shirt.
In addition to which, this is the Internet and drone age. You can't do insurgencies any more because your planning is exposed on social media you use to organize it, and lethal drones with thermal imaging will kill you in the field. The only insurgencies that work today are ones that are buried deep underground as demonstrated by Hamas and Hezbollah (and originally proven by the Vietnamese.)
People forget that after Russia takes Ukraine, the army will be followed by thousands of military police, Rosqvardia National Guard, GRU, SVR and FSB agents who will comb through Ukrainian social media, locate everyone who has the influence and resources to cause trouble, detain and deport the lot. End of insurgency threat.
Not to mention that an insurgency isn't going to be a serious threat to a Russian Military District with the resources I outlined above.
So an insurgency does NOT translate into Russia abandoning its objective national security concerns.
People get these notions in their heads and then don't bother to think it through. You have to ask the next question. You have to think like the military and intelligence professionals and like heads of states - not "civilians". People like Mercouris, Sachs and Mearsheimer just don't have the background, nor the psychology.
I'm a psychopath. I don't have that problem. LOL
The contrast between Lavrov and Blinken is laughable. Diplomacy and Blinken are mutually exclusive. He is a total rabbit.