Hello and welcome to another Update where the news couldn’t get any more historical as commentators focus on the Middle East and Washington. Sorry it’s a little late due to storm Eowyn and a lack of electricity.
This week, as expected, the Israeli government approved the Gazan ceasefire deal which came into effect on Sunday 19th January - and which we all hope will hold. Hostages/prisoners have been exchanged by the two sides.
The Palestinians are claiming a victory, which it clearly is, but I am sure that the vast majority on both sides are pleased and relieved to have peace after sixteen months of a bloody and relentless war. But it was also a genocide and we shouldn’t lose sight of that. Even some ‘just in case’ agnostics will be praying that the peace will hold.
Elsewhere, the Qatari Prime Minister, whose country was involved in the ceasefire negotiations, has insisted that Israel leave the ‘buffer zone’ in Syria which it claims to have occupied out of security concerns relating to the supposed presence of Iranian forces in the area. Even if such forces were there, which is doubtful, they are not there now, so Israel no longer has an excuse. The Houthis, recently branded as a terrorist organisation by Trump,1 have announced that while the ceasefire is in place they will attack only ships related to Israel. It should be noted that Israel has not stopped killing Palestinians. On January 21st it launched an operation against Jenin on the West Bank as you can see here or read about here. The Palestinians are mobilising to challenge the threat as you can read here. According to this report the IDF is shooting at random civilians in Jenin. The IDF is worse than a rabid dog.
On a cold Monday 20th January 2025, Donald J Trump became the 47th President of the United States. At his inauguration, Trump made a commitment to build ‘the strongest Military the world has ever seen’ but also expressed a desire that the US should not get involved in foreign wars. His ‘greatest legacy will be that of peacemaker and unifier’, Trump announced. Unfortunately, our Donald is very much a creature of his own time and his own US environment. The message he is delivering here is that the US will be the strongest power in the world but it will also be magnanimous in not starting wars with other, weaker nations. He is mistaken in thinking that being the strongest necessarily means being the best and in his belief that being the strongest is what nations should be striving for. A typical member of BRICS would say that we should be striving for cooperation based on mutual interests that eschews the ideology of domination in favour of the principle of national sovereignty2. Dmitry Medvedev said something along these lines when he suggested that the modern world needs ‘the growth and prosperity of humanity’ rather than a ‘golden age of America’. Maybe Trump can learn this, just as he recently learned that Spain is not a member of BRICS.
Trump will ban new aid to foreign countries with immediate effect unless it meets US strategic goals. This would certainly include Ukraine aid - don’t you think. Zelensky, believing that Trump will help him defeat Russia, had this to say:
Now we are deciding what this century will be like, and we must all act together so that this century will be big and successful for democracies, and not for those who wish us all failure. Good luck to you, President Trump! We look forward to active and mutually beneficial cooperation. Together we are stronger.
No Zelensky dear, the US is stronger without you. You have been a huge drain on and an embarrassment to - the United States.
Getting into action quickly, Trump declared a state of emergency at the Mexican Border, he promised to tackle the drug cartels and he renamed the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf of America. He had a go at Wokeness by issuing an executive order declaring that only two sexes will be recognised - male and female - and he railed against the climate catastrophists by pulling out of the Paris Climate Treaty. He stuck two fingers up to the medical globalists by pulling out of the World Health Organisation (WHO) while another executive order abolished all censorship and restored free speech. Trump, no doubt, is aware that the 1st Amendment rather than Donald J bequeathed the right to free speech on the American People. In an act of political theatre which has nowt to do with reality, Trump reversed Biden’s declaration that Cuba is not a state funder of terrorism.
Back in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin congratulated Trump on his inauguration and welcomed dialogue. However, Putin wants a comprehensive and permanent security agreement that will apply to the whole of Europe rather than a temporary ceasefire followed by a resumption of hostilities in Ukraine.
Many commentators have been expressing their views as to what Trump will do with regard to Ukraine but none that I’ve listened to are doing so with any deep conviction. This is not surprising given the many unpredictable variables that are in play here. Much depends on the accuracy of the information Trump is receiving and upon which his decisions and actions are taken. It seems that his advisors are not being honest with him.
My own view is that developments on the battlefield will have the greatest impact on world events but I have no idea how long the Ukrainians can last. However, I should say that some Ukrainian generals are predicting a collapse by the summer (see below). For those who are interested in some speculation, have a look at this discussion between Glenn Diesen, Alexander Mercouris and John Mearsheimer.
Biden’s parting blows included the pardoning of Deep State people, including Dr. Fauci, Mark Milley, Adam Schiff and Liz Chaney, who have not been accused of anything - yet. But Biden has effectively pointed the finger of suspicion at them all. He also preemptively pardoned five members of his own family like some feudal king. It seems that Biden is unable to remember signing some executive orders which is prompting questions as to who has been running America. Biden ended his term with a 37% approval rating: among the worse in history.
On the battlefronts of Ukraine, Russian breakthroughs are possible in Pokrovsk, Chasov Yar and Toretsk as Zelensky culls senior officers in his version of the blame game. General Syrsky has admitted that Ukraine does not have the resources to launch offensives while other officers are not optimistic that the army can stay intact beyond June. Above zero temperatures in some places have created fields of mud which will slow Russian advances.
It has been an eventful week in which the changing of the guards at the White House may actually result in some meaningful and progressive development. Time will tell.
January 18th 1943 - Leningrad Siege Broken
In January 1943, ‘Operation Iskra’ created a 11km wide corridor on the southern bank of Lake Ladoga to the east of besieged Leningrad (now St. Petersburg). Russians were celebrating the event this week. By February 1943, a railway had been laid and supplies poured into the city. The Russian air army and the ground forces suffered very high casualties in the operation. However, the city was not completely freed until January 27th 1944. The siege of Leningrad is one of the most horrifying episodes of WW2 that I have read about. Hitler wanted the people to starve, thereby advocating genocide, and just under a million obliged. People dropped dead at their work desks, their bodies finally giving up. There was as much courage here as there is on any battlefield.
Xi and Putin Talk of Indivisible Security
This week, the two BRICS leaders held a video conference to discuss ‘indivisible security’ in Eurasia, which could have been sending a message to Donald Trump on his inauguration day. They celebrated ‘‘joint projects’ that have been successfully launched by the two countries in the fields of industry, transport, agriculture and ‘other areas'. They also discussed the Ukraine conflict, Taiwan and their relationship with the US. You can read more at Sputnik.
Russia and Uzbekistan Sign Military Deal
Russia and Uzbekistan have signed a ’strategic partnership programme in the military field for the 2026-2030 period’.
The 2025 plan for the cooperation between Russian and Uzbek defence ministries was signed on Wednesday in Tashkent by Andrei Belousov and Shukhrat Kholmukhamedov.
Journalism Is Not A Crime
Patrick Lancaster posted this on Telegram with his own translation. The Ukrainians are celebrating these deaths while Patrick is commemorating them. Many of those pictured here were his friends.
Zelensky At Davos
Zelensky spoke at the Annual WEF meeting in Davos this week. At times, during a speech delivered in English, he appeared to be lecturing the Europeans on behalf of Donald Trump, reflecting Trump’s demand that each country spend 5% of GDP on defence. He appeared to hint that the Europeans cannot be sure that the Trump administration will come to their aid militarily, so they must develop their own forces to match those of Russia. He tried to frighten his audience with talk of Russia’s superior army and military strength which is far greater than that of Europe.
And Zelensky may have succeeded in alarming some. I am afraid that many Western leaders are severely handicapped in their thinking by their totally irrational fear that Russia wishes to attack Europe. What the hell for? Of course, we can’t be sure that these people actually believe the gibberish they spout.
Zelensky also said that Putin will demand a five fold reduction in Ukraine’s army which he will not agree to. But let’s face it, no one is going to negotiate with Zelensky because he carries zero legitimate authority in Ukraine: he is the expired one, after all.
Zelensky also had this to say about energy independence, according to Politico:
Europe needs to step up … to secure real energy independence. You can’t keep buying gas from Moscow while also expecting security guarantees, help and backup from the Americans. That’s just wrong.
He seems to be saying that the Europeans can’t expect security guarantees from the Americans if they are still buying Russian gas. Yet the alternative is to become dependent on US LNG. But he is also saying that Europe must pay for its own security which would mean that it could survive without the US.
Zelensky also pointed out that Europe is not a priority for the Americans: that it won’t even sit at the negotiating table that ends the war in Ukraine. He suggested that Europe could be left behind. It sounds as if Zelensky is attempting to cause some friction between the EU and the US but his actions are open to other interpretations, perhaps.
There is nothing controversial in what Zelensky is saying here and much of it is true. But I am puzzled as to the reasons he is saying these things and what messages he is trying to convey.
It is obvious that Zelensky must fear the withdrawal of US military support given some of Trump’s statements, so perhaps he trying to persuade the Europeans to provide him with both the funding and the security guarantees that may not be forthcoming from the US. In the absence of massive increases in Europe’s military spending this would be impossible. He may also be mindful of the fact that some European countries want Russia to supply them with oil and gas which will be helpful to the Russians. Zelensky would be pleased if all pipelines from Russia to Europe were destroyed and he will continue in his efforts to achieve that. The TurkStream pipeline in Krasnador will no doubt suffer more drone attacks in future.
I am not alone in saying that increased military spending will not furnish Europe with an instant army ready to take on the Russians: this will take years. So, I am not sure why Zelensky is making an appeal to the Europeans on this basis: after all, his own generals are saying that the army may disintegrate before June.
Zelensky also misses the point that Europe has become an irrelevance, as he points out, precisely because it is not benefitting from good political and economic relations with Russia. This is causing the industrial and political decline we are seeing being played out in real time. Another thing Zelensky misses is that making friends with Russia would be much cheaper than spending 5% of GDP on military expansion. But his hatred of Russia and his deluded belief that Ukraine can win, prevents him from considering such a move. Unfortunately, Zelensky still harbours illusions that Ukraine can join NATO and that Russia will be forced to return to its SMO start line as a condition for negotiations. Zelensky is either deluded or misinformed - or a combination of both.
Inevitably, Zelensky’s script contained a section on fundraising - so he dutifully complained (with the authoritative air of a preacher mildly scolding his flock)3 that funding from the US and the EU had declined. He also talked about having 200,000 peacekeepers in Ukraine, during the ceasefire/negotiations, including a US contingent, according to Zero Hedge. It seems that this man is attempting to manage his defeat until the very end. The problem for the once great Z is that his Russian adversary would never allow any European or US ‘peacemakers’ into Ukraine. And the Russians will not agree to a ceasefire at this point. Why on earth should they when they are so close to winning.
If you would like some expert analysis of this issue you could have a look at Daniel Davis’s Deep Dive.
Zelensky Arrests Senior Officers
According to Slavyangrad:
- Today, the State Bureau of Investigation has detained and is going to charge a number of officers with suspicion, local sources report:
Brigadier General Yuriy Galushkin, ex-commander of the Kharkiv operational and tactical directorate; Lieutenant General Artur Gorbenko, ex-commander of the 125th Lviv Brigade of the Tero Defense and former deputy commander of the 125th Brigade. The deposed commander of the 155th mechanized brigade "Anna Kievskaya", Colonel Dmytro Ryumshyn; Ryumshyn was detained in Rivne, where he arrived to serve in the reserve battalion of the OK "West". Galushkin and Gorbenko will receive suspicion for official negligence in connection with the failure of defense and loss of controllability of troops in the Kharkiv direction on May 10, 2024. In addition, in Zaporizhzhya, the ex-combat brigadier of one of the brigades of the TRO and his wife were arrested. The officer provided her with increased payments for fictitious participation in combat operations. Thus she unjustifiably received more than almost one million hryvnias.
I’m not sure if this is part of the blame game and I am not clear what the charge of ‘suspicion’ is. Something has been lost in translation here.
Ukrainian Atrocities in Kursk
Every day evidence is coming to light of Russian civilians tortured and murdered by Ukrainian soldiers in Sudzha District in Kursk. Bodies of elderly mutilated civilians with their hands tied are being found in basements. Some bodies were bruised suggesting they had been beaten while others had been shot in the legs and left to die. You can read more at Sputnik. The two Ukrainian soldiers pictured admitted to killing an elderly woman in Kursk because she spoke Russian. Patrick Lancaster provides a report here.
Ukraine’s Army Eating Itself
Ukraine’s military commanders have told RADA Deputy Anatoliy Burmich that the conflict must end in the first half of the year due to a ‘shortage of resources’.
It is necessary to assess the situation realistically. I am sure that the conflict will be resolved and compromises will be found [My emphasis].
Burmich’s statement came to light as part of a survey being conducted by Zelensky’s Office to gauge opinion. Zelensky is also attempting to blame the military commanders, including Syrsky, for military defeats, according to Slavyangrad. Syrsky himself has admitted that the war cannot be won through defensive action alone while Ukraine does not have sufficient resources to launch effective counter -offensives.
Among these ‘resources’ are the men whose blood stains the battlefields but are not being replaced. As b from the MoA4 points out (January 20th), since replacements cannot keep pace with losses, the army is eating itself. Specially trained aircraft maintenance staff are wasting their talents as infantry because men are needed so badly. Some are calling for the 100,000 TCC workers to be redirected from their role as procurers of cannon fodder to become cannon fodder themselves. But given the lack of mobilisation and the high casualty rate, this process cannot last very long: Ukraine will eventually run out of men. Ukraine is also in danger of eating itself as a society, especially if Zelensky is persuaded to destroy the seed of 18 year old boys.
Ukraine Terrorist Attacks (that target civilians)
17th/18th January
According to the Russian MoD::
18 UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were shot down over the territory of the Bryansk region this night, 11 in the Kursk region.
In long suffering Gorlovka (DPR) five women received injuries from cluster munitions.
18th/19th January
According to the Russia MoD:
During the past night, air defense systems on duty intercepted and destroyed 46 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles :
18 UAVs – over the territory of the Bryansk region, 11 UAVs – over the Kursk territory, seven UAVs – over the territory of Kaluga, five UAVs – over the territory of Tula, three UAVs - over the territory of Belgorod two UAVs – over the territory of the Voronezh region.
19th/20th January
Belgorod District came under attack from drones and shelling which damage cars and houses while one woman was injured by a drone drop on her car. 14 drones were destroyed over Bryansk, another 6 over Kaluga, 3 over Kursk, 2 over Oryol and 1 over Tatarstan. In Kherson region the Ukrainians attacked a school with HIMARS cluster munitions just when the children were coming into classes. Two children were killed and 25 were injured, some seriously. In Gorlovka (DPR) another 8 were injured by shelling.
20th/21st January
According to the War Chronicle:
In the Bryansk region, 18 UAVs were shot down overnight, including 2 rockets. In the north of the Rostov region, in the Sholokhov and Chertkovsky districts, 12 UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were shot down
In Kherson, the village of Bekhtery suffered an attack by cluster munitions which killed 2 and injured 25. In Belgorod region, a man and woman were injured by a drone drop on their car while 155mm cluster artillery injured eleven Gorlovka (DPR). Elsewhere in the DPR, 2 civilians were injured and another killed by drone drops on their cars. On the Svetlodarsk-Novoluhanske highway, 8 people on the way to work were injured by a drone attack on their vehicle.
21st/22nd January
Bryansk suffered drone attacks and drone drops overnight, according to the War Chronicle. Two houses were set alight, a truck was burned down and the driver was hospitalised. Ten drones were destroyed. Nine drones were destroyed over Rostov and one over Voronezh. Belgorod also suffered drone attacks which caused some damage to residential buildings while drone drops on moving vehicles injured two.
22nd/23rd January
Overnight, many villages in Belgorod region suffered drone attacks which damaged dwellings and commercial enterprises but no casualties were reported. In Gorlovka (DPR), one man was killed and another injured by 155mm cluster munitions while elsewhere in the DPR another six civilians were injured by the same illegal shells.
23rd/24th January
According to the Russian MoD, the Ukrainians launched a massive drone attack overnight:
According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, 121 enemy UAVs were shot down overnight. 37 over the Bryansk region, 20 over the Ryazan region, 17 over the Kursk region, 17 over the Saratov region, 7 over the Rostov region and about 20 more over 8 regions. Of the consequences: the refinery in Ryazan is on fire, the refinery in Engels - 7 explosions, powerful explosions were heard. Arrivals at the Kremny plant in Bryansk - and this is the fourth attack for all time. By midnight, 50 UAVs were shot down, the enemy is increasingly using high-speed jet UAVs.
I appreciate that the attacks on refineries are not terrorist attacks.
In Belgorod region, drone attacks damaged private dwellings, cars and an agricultural enterprise. Only one injury was reported.
The Sea War
21st/22nd January
Overnight, seven drones were destroyed above Crimea.
The Air War
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
17th/18th January
On Saturday morning, the Russians attacked Ukraine’s Defense Industry facilities successfully hitting all targets.
It’s been a quiet week for Russian air attacks but I may have missed some.
23rd/24th January
Overnight, Geraniums were reported to be attacking Chernigov, Khmelnitsky, Sumy, Kharkov and Poltava regions.
Ukrainian Missile/Drone Attacks
17th/18th January
According to the Russian MoD:
7 [drones were shot down] in the Kirov district of the Kaluga region, 5 in the Tula region, 2-3 over the Tula and Volgorad regions. In the Kaluga region, a UAV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fell on a gas station in Lyudinovo, near a metalworking plant. In the already Uzlovsky district of the Tula region, an oil depot is on fire.
The fires mentioned above were quickly extinguished.
19th/20th January
Overnight, drones targeting aircraft/helicopter plants in Kazan were shot down while air defences destroyed drones over Ryazan.
20th/21st January
Overnight, Smolensk suffered drone attacks aimed at an aircraft plant but fragments hit a residential building causing a fire. Voronezh also suffered drone attacks, which hit a fuel lubricants facility, setting it alight.
The Ground War
Russian MoD Reports (excludes Kursk)
w/e 3rd January 12,455 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 516
w/e 10th January 2025 13, 370 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 724 (record high).
w/e 17th January 2025 12,945 Casualties killed and wounded : equipment losses 661
w/e 24th January 2025 12,815 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 654
Kursk
Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 54,460 troops, 318 tanks, 237 infantry fighting vehicles, 183 armoured personnel carriers, 1,613 armoured fighting vehicles, 1,602 motor vehicles, 388 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers…
The Fronts
Front Line Cats
Kursk
On January 23rd, according to the Two Majors:
From Kursk Oblast, it is reported that in the Kruglenkoye/Viktorovka area, during the offensive actions of our troops, assault detachments entered Viktorovka and are trying to gain a foothold. Attack actions are underway in the direction of the settlement of Nikolsky. The North group of forces reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to build up their group in the Sudzhan border area, having transferred reserve elite units of special forces, assault aircraft and special operations forces. Several special forces units have arrived in Sumy, from where they will be transferred to Kursk Oblast in a few days. Missile strikes have been carried out on enemy concentrations. Our marines are waging stubborn battles in Kurilovka and the surrounding forest belts.
Kharkov
This week, fighting continued in Volchansk where the Russians are using one and a half ton air bombs to evict Ukrainians from high rise buildings.
North of Kupyansk
According to the Two Majors:
North of Kupyansk, on the right bank of the Oskol River, units of the West group of forces liberated the settlement of Zapadnoye in the Kharkov region, the Russian Defense Ministry reported. The penetration into the enemy's defense was 4.5 km deep from the Oskol River to the west.
Kupyansk
Kupyansk Detail Marat Khairullin
Seversk
According to World Pravda on January 23rd:
East and southeast of Seversk, in the areas of Verkhnekamensky, Ivanodaryevka and Vyemka, Russians are breaking through the enemy's defenses. The heights northwest of Belogorovka and positions in the Zolotorovsky reserve remain under Ukrainian control. In Seversk, Ukrainian fortifications were destroyed by artillery strikes of the Russian Armed Forces.
Chasiv Yar Detail - Marat Khairullin
On the 22nd January, according to Slavyangrad:
Russian units began moving towards the city from the direction of the village of Stupochki, which is the southeastern side of Chasov Yar. If everything turns out well, the AFU fighters will have to fight on two "flanks". This, of course, will weaken the entire defense of the Kiev regime as a whole in this direction. Fighting continues in the northern districts, a large part of the industrial zone on Privokzalnaya Street has come under the control of the AFU.
Toretsk
Pokrovsk
Pokrovsk Detail Marat Khairullin
On January 23rd, according to the War Chronicle:
Pokrovskoye direction. Assault units of the RF Armed Forces reached the north of Kotlino and are located in the area of Agrofarm and forest.
Judging by other news from this area, the enemy command does not have reserves to repel our attacks. In neighboring Udachny, the Armed Forces of Ukraine retreat to the railway station of the village, and ours bypass the settlement from the south, without resting on the fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine built in the northern part on the territory of the mine and industrial zone.
The Russians are attempting to take Pokrovsk in pincers rather than hit it directly.
Velikaya (Bolshaya) Novosyolka - Marat Khairullin
On the 23rd January, according to the Two Majors:
the enemy admits that the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison is squeezed from several sides by assault units of the Russian Armed Forces. The distance between the advancing units is from 2.2 to 3.7 km, that is, the "pocket" is completely under fire from our troops.
By the end of the week, most of the garrison at Velyka Novosilka had been surrounded.
Kurakhovo
Kurakhovo Detail - Marat Khairullin
Zaporozhye
According to the Two Majors:
On the Zaporozhye front, the Russian Armed Forces are knocking out the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ supply infrastructure in Orekhovo, striking with drones and artillery.
The Economic War
Sanctions on Russia
In Spite of This:
Global Gas Market
The global gas market summed up.
Russia Achieves Record Budget Revenue
Bloomberg is reporting that in spite of sanctions Russia’s budget revenues rose to record levels in December 2024. This is the highest level recorded since January 2011. Oil and gas revenues increased by a third in December 2024 compared to December 2023. In the whole of 2024, Russia’s gas and oil revenues were the second highest in its history.
Will China Be Strongest Power?
UK Debt Death Spiral
According to Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of hedge fund firm Bridgewater Associates, the UK is heading for a debt crisis which will spiral out of control as the treasury has to borrow more and more money to service its increasing debts. Dalio described this as a ‘debt death spiral’. In spite of this, Starmer has promised to provide Ukraine with $3 billion a year for the next 100 years - what an idiot. You can read more here. Tyler Durden disagrees but you will have to pay to access his arguments at Zero Hedge.
Surviving in Europe
Now and again I look in on Survival Lily from Germany but the news she reports is sometimes depressing so I don’t visit regularly. Last week, her 17 minute report on the financial situation of the German and Austrian people was useful in order to gauge the enormity of the decline we are witnessing - so I am providing a link. Warning! Don’t watch if you are feeling depressed. One of the most alarming take aways from this, apart from the staggering increase in the cost of food and energy, are proposals from German politicians who are considering whether or not people who are sick should be made to work for short periods at home. That’s a red line for me. Equally alarming, are reports that Germans and Austrian pensioners, just like some in the UK, are being forced to choose between eating and heating. In the meantime their governments have been sending billions to Ukraine so that more people can die over there. I have not seen any clearer evidence that the world has definitely gone mad, have you?
World Politics
Agent in Place
I imagine that those who have been attempting to expose Donald Trump as a ‘Russian agent’ will be confirmed in their suspicions by his insistence on contacting Vladimir Putin as a matter of priority. Trump has also sacked all Pentagon personnel involved in managing military assistance to Ukraine which underlines his status as Putin’s ‘agent’.
Can you imagine anyone associated with the ‘Biden’ Administration (including Hilary, Obama and Soros) even using his name yet alone phoning him! Both Putin and Lavrov have expressed their interest in hearing what he has to say but they will insist on attaining the objectives they set for the SMO. Any terms Trump introduces that get in the way of these will not be acceptable and not accepted. Trump has been handed a poison chalice in the form of Ukraine. If he does not act quickly, there will be less of Ukraine for him to negotiate with and if he manages to get an early peace deal over the line, he will be accused of selling Ukraine down the river. Trump’s Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has been asked to end the conflict in 100 days - according to Tass. I should also say that Trump is also planning to visit Xi in China within his first 100 days - arousing more suspicions.
So far, Trump is attempting to use the carrot and stick in the form of relief from sanctions or the imposition of more sanctions - as you can read here. Make a deal or else, Trump threatens, not appreciating that Russia does not take kindly to ultimatums and is holding all the winning cards. Yury Podolyaka has described Trump’s threats as foolish - as you can read here. It appears he has been provided with faulty information about ‘high’ Russian casualties and the ‘dire state’ of the Russian economy. One Russian MP provided a dose of realism, as reported by the Islander:
Andrei Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee, firmly rejected Donald Trump’s claims that he could resolve the Ukraine conflict in 100 days, stating unequivocally, “No Trump will (not) resolve or regulate the conflict in Ukraine in 100 or 180 days. The Russian army will do it.” Kartapolov continued, emphasizing the battlefield as the ultimate arbiter of the conflict: “No matter what they say, the solution will be on the battlefield, and today this battlefield is ours’’.
So far, Trump has shown himself to be just as ignorant of the SMO and of Russians as his predecessors were. This is a disappointment. Trump has to get real - and fast. Can someone ask Trump to read The Busker - it may be useful to some.
End of the Affair
Green hawk and German Foreign Secretary, Annalena Baerbock recently travelled to Damascus where she made serious demands of Jolani, the HTS ‘head chopper’. Now she has locked horns with Dear Old Olaf regarding the $3 billions ‘aid’ package to Ukraine. Scholtz knows that this can be provided only by slashing social benefits to the German people, so he won’t agree to it. This places him in opposition to the EU’s Callous Kallas, who wants ‘defence’ to take priority over luxuries such as health care. Annalena was prompted to leave for some reason, so it appears. Her parting can be seen as symbolising the end of the Green partnership with Scholz’s SPD: the end of an affair. Maybe Scholtz senses the people have had enough. Perhaps he has the nous to appreciate that Ukraine is beyond financial assistance and would be better served from the negotiating table. On the other hand, Baerbock, who still has her head in the clouds of another planet, is unable to see this.
Macron’s Call To Arms
Mac’s been doing his Napoleon impressions again, calling on the nations of Europe to mobilise and unite against the old adversary in the east. The ‘task for today is to give Ukraine the opportunity to hold out and enter any future negotiations from a position of strength’. This demonstrates quite clearly that Macron has no idea what is happening on the fronts. It also shows that Macron does not appreciate the divisions that exist between European countries and between European leaders and their populations (outside of his own yellow vest ‘infected’ country). So, when he leads the charge he may look back to find that no one is following him.
Orban Vows To Expel Soros Network
Viktor Orban has vowed to expel George Soros’s network from Hungary and is urging other ‘patriotic’ European countries to do the same. Orban opposed efforts by Soros and the Democrats to impose their views on Gender, migration and war onto Europeans. You can read more at Zero Hedge.
Referring to Zelensky’s ingratitude towards Europe, he had this to say:
They have lost a fifth of their country, and their industry is in ruins. They cannot ensure their existence, but they act as if they are able to dictate their terms to us. In reality, they are in the position of a supplicant, but one must also know how to ask.
Orban - On Russian Sanctions
The EU’s 15 sanctions packages must be renewed every six months, so Viktor Orban reminds us. On or before January 31st, all 27 countries must agree on an extension or the sanctions must end. I didn’t know this. Orban and others are against a renewal because the sanctions have been harmful to Europeans and European economies - as you can read here. Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens in the next week.
Alice Weidel - Friend or Foe?
The leader of Germany’s AfD who presents herself and her party as ‘anti-establishment’ is a former investment banker who some believe is part of ‘controlled opposition’ to the globalist elites she is financially and ideologically in tune with. According to the Islander:
She rails against [Woke] leftist indoctrination, yet her party offers no real vision to address Germany’s deeper societal rot: dependence on NATO’s militaristic agenda, blind obedience to U.S. interests, and the ongoing erosion of national sovereignty under EU technocracy. Her anti-woke soundbites might energize the disillusioned, but they mask her alignment with the very neoliberal forces she claims to oppose.
She is also very much pro-Israel so is on probation with many of us. Time will tell whether she is an asset to progress or not. I am not going to offer judgement at this point.
Wise Westerners - Geert Wilders
The leader of the ‘right wing’ Dutch Freedom Party has called for Ukraine funding to stop so that the welfare of the Dutch people can be prioritised. The Freedom Party is the largest in a ruling coalition. Wilders said:
The Dutch are barely making ends meet because of high taxes and rising inflation. As long as other countries want to spend more on Ukraine, I will not allow that ... we leave the Dutch to fend for themselves. Helping people is our priority, not additional billions for leftist liberal hobbies.
Wise Westerners - Marcus Woolf
British politician Woolf has spoken out against the 100 year deal with Ukraine and the $3 billion annual aid to be provided at the expense of the British people. Britain is not a rich country anymore, he argued:
I think it is important to look at the people in our country now. And people are going through a lot of hardship. And 3 billion a year will help people a lot, especially pensioners. Giving it to another country is wrong. We are looking at other countries instead of protecting our own. We are not a rich nation anymore.
He’ll get three cheers from pensioners in the UK for that.
The emerging Multi-Polar World
The Iran Deal
The deal signed by Putin and Pezeshkian on January 17th includes a military alliance of sorts but it does not commit either side to support the other in the event that it is attacked by a third party. This is part of the deal between North Korea and Russia but the Iranian agreement involves a commitment not to support the aggressor attacking either state and to push for conflict resolution. The deal will seek to prevent unwelcome interference in both countries by third parties (such as the US or the EU). Security concerns have clearly prompted the deal, which:
includes a heavy focus on security, with the parties broadly agreeing to “strive to deepen and expand relations in all areas of mutual interest, strengthen cooperation in security and defense, engage in close coordination of activities at the regional and global levels.
This agreement, which has been in the making for three years, will seek to promote multilateralism, national sovereignty and a rejection of the Uni-Polar World Order. Security and Intelligence agencies of both countries will increase their cooperation and will seek to combat terrorism while each will challenge domestic separatist movements that could be harmful, internally/domestically.
Article 14 of the agreement highlights the need for strengthened security, political, economic, cultural and humanitarian cooperation via the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and expanded ties between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union.
On the economic front there will be cooperation on sanctions, science and space. You can read more at Sputnik.
The two leaders agreed that Russia will build a gas pipeline to Iran which will provide 300 millions cubic metres of gas per day. You can read more at Sputnik.
Nigeria Becomes BRICS Partner
On January 17th, Brazil announced that Nigeria will become a BRICS partner country. Brazil, which chairs the BRICS group this year, has said that Nigeria and Brazil have many common interests. Nigeria is the ninth official BRICS partner, joining Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan.
That’s it for an historically eventful week. It has been stormy globally and locally.
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Along with the re-designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, this shows that such ‘branding’ is purely political.
This would be the equivalent of being ‘person-centred’ in the field of psychology or mental health practice.
I should say that Zelensky is justified in claiming the moral high ground here because the US and the Europeans have let him down badly. They promised him so much then failed to deliver. But Zelensky will know all about such things because he promised his people peace and gave them a bloody war that wrecked their country, genocided a generation of young men and may even result in Ukraine’s extinction as a nation.
Moon of Alabama
Memories of the siege of Leningrad is in Putin's DNA, having had his maternal grandmother killed, a two-year old brother starve to death, and his mother hospitalised with malnutrition. His father was seriously wounded at that time, and two maternal uncles disappeared (KIA?) on the eastern front. With Germany in full support of the Ukraine war, it must bring to his mind German enmity. Not of the people, but of the leadership. The starvation of the Gazans would also have gone over like a lead balloon.
Putin never moves unless all his ducks are in a row, and the Zionist presence in Moscow must be handled carefully, though he did call for Russian Israelis to return to Russia, indicating a dire future for Israel. The strengthening of ties with Iran, and his providing safe harbour for the Assads, indicates that Putin's focus is shifting to West Asia.
With Indonesia a full member of BRICS+, more than half of the world's PPP (purchasing power) is now in the hands of BRICS+ nations. With Nigeria just made a partner, and Venezuela eager to join, if Saudi Arabia gets off the BRICS/US fence, most of the world's oil production will be in the hands of BRICS+ nations. Powerful ducks.
Europe, Israel, and the US need to understand that when it comes to world wars, RUSSIA BATS LAST.
The poor German people are not so poor, in fact the live quite well, as they recieve Bürgergeld. For a Family with four chlidren they recieve nearly 3000€, plus free health Care plus House Rent plus heating, which amounts to more than 1000€ extra.
For this a normal Family has to earn 6000€ brutto or more.
Now it was revealed, that the German civil servants have less net income than Bürgergeld Receiver, so the state has to add 150.000.000€ to make it even.
As all Ukrainan Refugees also recieve Bürgergeld, the State has to look for additional 10.000.000.000€+ €.
No wonder that less and less people like to work. Especially as there are no sanctions when they do not look for a job.
As for Dr. Alice Weidel, she got a 1.0 degree, worked in China, speaks fluently Mandarin and earned her own money until she went into politics. Which is rare for German politicians, who often have neither finished University nor learned any trade. She seems a serious person to me but gets smeared from some weirdos for being a "Banker".
And she has some Idea of money and economy, which our present Government clearly does not have.