Ukraine Weekly Update

28th July 2023

The most significant events of this week have, without doubt, taken place on the battlefields of Ukraine. The continued failure of Ukraine’s offensive is a problem for everyone on the Ukrainian side, including the West’s ‘story tellers’ or narrative creators. Some explanation must be provided for the failure of an offensive that has lasted nearly two months and whose gains can be measured in yards rather than miles (or kilometres). Or, you can, as The White House has done, simply say that the offensive hasn’t been successful yet: but it will be - in a week or two. It will be interesting to see how inventive the story tellers can be in explaining the offensive’s apparent failure.

The above cartoon is obviously a metaphour meant to represent the sad situation the Ukrainian army now finds itself in with the West forcing it into an unwinnable fight. On 26th and 27th July Ukraine suffered two of the biggest defeats of the offensive it launched on June 4th. These were without doubt the most significant events of the week because they could mark a ‘turning point’ of sorts. But what appears to be the beginning of a Russian offensive and bridgehead in the Svatove area (Kharkov/Luhansk) could also be very significant. Map. In the air war, Russia has escalated its destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure including port facilities close to the Romanian border and, most significantly, air fields. If the F16s ever arrive they may find it difficult to find somewhere to rest their wings.

Zelensky - The Great Pretender

Oh Yes - he’s the great Pretender.

Being an actor/comedian who was ‘appointed’ as president, military leader and chief fund raiser for Ukraine, the great Z has had to do lots of pretending. But the problem with pretending is that reality will catch up with you eventually. If you pretend to be a boxer, for example, and enter the ring with a strong opponent, you will end up looking something like the character in the above illustration.

Z is even asserting himself as Ukraine’s pretend ‘dictator’. Having banned opposing political parties, opposing newspapers, the Russian language, The Ukrainian Orthodox Church and anything else I may have missed, he has now sacked Vadim Pristaiko his ambassador to the UK. The ambassador had called Z’s video response to Ben Wallace’s request for gratitude ‘a little bit of sarcasm’ - which it was. But no one is allowed to criticise the Great Z: no one is allowed to attack the image he has created - so the ‘irritant’ was simply removed. This is what Tass had to say about it.

I call Zelensky a ‘pretend dictator’ because he does not have the power that ‘real’ dictators have. His power is ‘given’ to him by his puppeteers who must approve of the actions he takes. The dictatorial actions I have described above were not initiated by Z: rather, he was told to do these things just as he was told to promote peace and equal rights for Russian speakers in Ukraine when he was running for election - as many of you will know. Scott Ritter covers this in his documentaries on Z (Part One and Part Two). Anyone viewing these will be struck by Z’s transformation from pacifist to warmonger, from liberal to neo-Nazi - as if he had undergone a complete change of character, which, in the theatrical sense, is exactly what happened.

But the extent to which his puppeteers have control over Z’s actions (and his utterances) is unknown and debatable. It is obvious from Z’s many gaffes that he sometimes steps out of line. For example, after being criticised for ingratitude at Vilnius, Z continued with his own criticism of the West which, he said, was responsible in part for the failed offensive because it did not provide enough weapons and failed to train sufficient troops - according to Zero Hedge. This delayed the offensive, according to Z, allowing Russia to lay mines and strengthen its defences. This is nonsense of course but some of Z’s backers will not enjoy his criticisms.¹

But how much of this independent attitude will the West suffer? I have heard rumours that US representatives have been consulting possible successors should Z decide to retire.

Of course, the degree of autonomy Z enjoys is also limited by the neo-Nazis in his government who would no doubt kill him if he failed them ideologically.

So I doubt whether many would swap places with Z who is, in effect, being forced into the ring for yet another round to fight an opponent who is much stronger than he and whom he knows he cannot defeat.

Drone Development

The use of drones in this war demonstrates how important they are and will continue to be in future wars. The latest ‘kamikaze’ drone development provides us with an illustration of how this war is different from any previously fought. The latest Russian drones communicate with each other once launched. If one drone discovers an enemy column it will communicate the coordinates to its ‘fellow’ drones and the whole column will be attacked by a swarm. This is science fiction happening now according to AirPower. (5 mins).²

Cluster Bomb Attacks

Last week I said that Ukraine will use the cluster ammunition to target civilians and on July 22nd Tass reported that three journalists have been injured and one killed in a cluster bomb attack in Zaporizhe. The journalists were reporting on Ukrainian cluster bomb attacks on civilians in the area. Here's the report. The dead man was a journalist from Sputnik. The Ukrainians also attacked a village in Belgorod with cluster bombs sometime last week - but there were no casualties, according to Sputnik.

But according to NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg, Russia must suffer cluster bomb attacks without retaliation or “this will once again indicate Russia’s unpreparedness for peace negotiations.” The West talks a lot about Russian intransigence whereas it is the West that has refused negotiations, not Russia, and it has done so quite publicly for over a year. If we had an independent media Stoltenberg would not get away with spouting such embarrassing gibberish.

Ukrainian Desertions

It appears that more and more Ukrainian soldiers are deserting or refusing to obey orders, according to Colonel MacGregor, as reported in Pravda. This has been going on for some time but at the moment the numbers are still fairly small. But Z and co will be understandably concerned by this. Men who have been pulled off the streets and thrown into a van before being shipped to the front do not make the most enthusiastic soldiers. When they get to the front after very little training and discover that the ground is littered with the corpses of their fellow countrymen and the air is rent with the constant blasts of Russian artillery they will believe that they have entered hell - and they will be right. Some groups are surrendering because the Ukrainian army can’t evacuate its own wounded and they know that the Russians will look after them.

Mercenaries Targeted

Russia is targeting foreign mercenaries and has had some recent successes. 100 were killed in a hotel in Odesa in a recent missiles strike.

The Sea War?

The great Z has asked for help to end the blockade of grain ships in the Black Sea. He wants to continue the grain deal without Russia and has approached Erdogan and the UN about this. The Russian MOD has made it clear that any non-Russian ships in the Black sea will be assumed to be carrying munitions and will be attacked. So there is a danger that NATO will attempt to exploit these circumstances to escalate the conflict. If you are interested in finding out more detail on this look here.

The Air War

F16s

John Kirby, Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council in the White House, has stated that F16s will be available to Ukraine by the end of the year: much sooner than previously thought. Kirby criticised Sergei Lavrov’s comments about the nuclear capability of the F16s suggesting that if Russia is concerned about Ukraine’s military capabilities it should pull its forces out of Ukraine. This was reported by Zero Hedge. Kirby’s rhetorical flourish may sound good but it ignores the gravity of the situation.

Of course, Lavrov is playing the game of international diplomacy also. But Kirby was realistic enough to point out that F16s will not win the conflict for Ukraine on their own. According to Sputnik the Ukrainian Minister of Defence (Oleksii Reznikov) has announced that Ukrainian pilots will begin a six month period of training on F16s in August. If this is the case, they are unlikely to have any impact on the course of the conflict which could be over by then.

ATACMS

The US will not be providing long range ATACM missiles to Ukraine because they don’t want them to fall into the hand of the Russian military - which would reverse engineer them and figure out how they can be defeated. But the US has a reputation for changing its mind about providing certain pieces of equipment to Ukraine.

Crimea

The Ukrainians managed to hit an ammo depot in Crimea on July 22nd. According to this report from Sputnik, no one was injured. This was one of three ammunition dumps destroyed by the Ukrainians in the past week using Stormshadow missiles launched from SU34 aircraft. Another Ukrainian attack on Crimea with 17 drones was thwarted by Russia’s air defences on July 24th. 14 drones were disabled by electronic means and crashed into the Black Sea: the other 3 were destroyed by air defences over mainland Crimea. There were no injuries, according to Pravda .

Moscow

The Ukrainians attacked Moscow with drones on 24th July but they were disabled by electronic means. However, some drone fragments hit non-residential buildings in the City Centre. According to Tass, Maria Zakharova has called the attack an act of international terrorism. Moscow was attacked by drones again on 28th July but all were destroyed or disabled before they could cause any damage.

Odesa

Overnight on the 22nd/23rd July Russian missiles attacked Odesa once more. Warehouses containing ammunition were destroyed along with airport facilities that were previously used to launch drones. Port facilities were also hit. Some damage was caused to civilian infrastructure (including a cathedral) by Ukrainian air defence missiles and the legacy media will no doubt blame the Russians. But some are speculating that the cathedral was destroyed by the Ukrainians before the Russian missiles attacks.

It is being reported that the Ukrainians had been storing lots of ammunition and equipment in the Odesa port because this area was deemed out of bounds in accordance with the grain deal. So Russia has had rich pickings in this area since the deal collapsed.

Reni (Odesa region)

Russia has also attacked port facilities on the Danube near Reni, close to the border with Romania (see map). The Ukrainians were transporting weapons, ammunition and fuel along this route as well as grain. Russia has not attacked these facilities before now so this amounts to ‘raising the stakes’, as Simplicius has noted in another really excellent and detailed piece of work which you can access here. A considerable amount of supplies was destroyed at Reni (judging by the length of time the warehouses took to burn) because an attack was not expected. According to Slavyangrad, there are many other routes that can supply weapons, ammunition and equipment to Ukraine so the destruction here will not reduce supplies. There are also other ways of getting Ukrainian grain to markets as alternatives to the Black Sea.

26th-27th July - Russian Missile Attacks

The destruction which came courtesy of Russia’s ground forces on these days (see below) was matched by that of Russia’s air forces as 50 strong missile barrages rocked much of Ukraine once again. Kiev, Zhytomyr and Khmelnytsky in the Lvov region (far west of Ukraine) all came under fire. Map The Russians appear to be attacking airfields recently and on the 26th July they targeted at least two, including one near Zhytomyr using Kinzhal missiles. This could be in preparation for the possible arrival of F16s but is more likely being done to prevent SU24 jets ‘air launching’ Stormshadow missiles at Crimea. But the Russians are also attacking military bases, command and control centres, production and storage facilities for unmanned boats and supply depots.

The Ground War

Here are three Russian MoD reports which provide an indication of the enormous losses the Ukrainian have recently suffered on a daily basis.

Russian MoD Report 23rd July

The Report is one of the heaviest I have seen for a while:

KIA 750; tanks (Leopards) 7; AFVs/IFVs 46 (includes 10 Bradleys); Motor vehicles 43; Howitzers 7; Artillery systems 4; Ammunition dumps 6; Fuel Depot 1; Command posts 3; SU25 1. That’s a lot of blood and steel.

Russian MoD Report 26th July

In terms of equipment overall this is lighter than the above report but the number of tanks destroyed is so staggering that it could be Russian propaganda - but I doubt it.

KIA 675; tanks 23; AFVs/IFVs 25; Motor vehicles 16; Howitzers 7; Artillery Systems 10; Ammunition Dumps 2; Radar stations 2; Command posts 2.

Russian MoD Report 27th July

The Russian lost more men and materiel on this day than on the other two.

KIA 886; tanks 28; AFVs/IFVa 39; Motor vehicles 15; Howitzers 9: Artillery systems 2; Ammunition dumps 2; Fuel Depots 3; Radar Stations 3; MLRS 1.

Ukraine - Losses in Armour/Artillery

An organisation called LOSTARMOUR has been attempting to calculate Ukrainian losses in armour and artillery by looking at video footage. This is being reported by Slavyangrad’s Telegram channel: https://t.me/Slavyangrad/53578%3C/blockquote%3E. The research shows that Russia has destroyed at least half of the M777 self propelled howitzers provided by the West. It is likely that many more have been destroyed but were not recorded by cameras. The research also shows Russia’s increasing use of Lancet drones which have been responsible for much of the destruction.

The loss of armour is serious - especially since Europe and the US do not have unlimited supplies to replace them (see Russian MoD reports above). According to one of Colonel Doug MacGregor’s military contacts, Germany, Britain and France could field only 600 tanks between them in the event of conflict. Russia is reported to have 900 tanks in the Luhansk area alone.

Abrams Coming

The US will be providing Ukraine with Abram tanks from September onwards - no idea of numbers as yet.

The Russian Offensive??

Weeb Union has been speculating for some time about a Russian Offensive on the Kharkov Front and I have reported on it here. The speculation is based on an assumption that the Russians have 100,000 troops in this area along with 900 tanks which may or may not be true. On the 23rd July Weeb reported that the Russians intend to advance towards Borova from the Svatove area. This would cut off one of Ukraine’s supply roads between Kupyansk in the north and Lyman in the south. The Russians are also advancing (slowly) west from Kreminna in the direction of Lyman and south from Kupyansk.

Here’s a map produced by Weeb from which it is easy to see why the Ukrainian forces should feel threatened. An advance towards Izium could outflank Ukrainian forces in Seversk, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. The Ukrainians will have to reinforce the area in order to counter this threat and could therefore become overstretched and vulnerable to Russian breakthroughs elsewhere.

Pravda is also speculating on an offensive in this area in the direction of Kupyansk and then Lyman which could collapse the front. Pravda believes that it is a matter of honour for the Russian army to liberate Kupyansk which they abandoned last Autumn.

Ex-Polish Army General Skrzypczak, who used to be in charge of Polish ground forces, also believes that the Russians have quietly assembled 100,000 men equipped with updated T90 tanks in Luhansk. He believes that the Russians will push the Ukrainians across the Oskol River to the west as soon as possible. This will provide an opportunity to encircle the Ukrainian army in the Donbass and will force the Ukrainians to reinforce the area in order to prevent this happening, thereby weakening other sections of the front. This information was posted by: SoMuchToLearn | Jul 26 2023 21:40 utc 155 - MoA - with this link.

I must say that the activities of Russia’s military in the north are looking more and more like the start of the offensive we have been anticipating for some time. It is reported that the Russians now have a 12km long bridgehead with a depth of 3km across the Zerebets river east of Borova in Kharkov oblast. This is probably a sufficient area to build up forces for an offensive - but I’m no military expert!

The Ukrainian Offensive

It is being admitted by some Western commentators that the Ukrainian offensive is having problems. Zaluzhny has said that this is due to lack of air power but Mark Milley of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff believes it’s all about the minefields. Ukraine could get much further in its attacks, he said, if it learns how to deal with the minefields: those dreaded minefields! According to Milley, F16s cannot be provided at this stage but mine clearing equipment can (and will) be provided. I think that the Ukrainians are in need of much, much more than mine clearing equipment, which is probably not top of their list of needs at the moment.

The truth is that the Ukraine military is suffering many disadvantages vis a vis the Russians that mine clearing equipment, on its own, will not correct. The list of what they need in terms of manpower and materiel is long and likely to get longer.

Orekhov - Rabotino 26th July

This could have been a pivotal day in the conflict: the day when some in the Ukrainian military finally realised that their offensive has become offensive to anyone who values human life. This report I found on the MoA sums it up better than I could:

"In the Orekhov-Rabotino area, the Ukrainian army today launched an offensive with 110 tanks and armored vehicles at 3 different points in two waves. They also attacked with 30 vehicles in the Novoselovka area. Almost half of the group of 110 vehicles was destroyed or disabled. Almost the entire strike group was destroyed in the Novoselovka area. The Ukrainian army sends new reinforcements and tries to advance. Before the vehicles reached the minefields, Russian artillery and Ka-52 combat helicopters began firing at them. After entering the minefields, FPV drones, ATGM crews and Russian tanks also entered the battle. Russian planes are also trying to block the flow of reinforcements, inflicting gliding strikes on the Orekhovsky and Gulyai-Pole regions.

https://t.me/infantmilitario/103719"

This attack cost the Ukrainians 100 - 200 KIA (reports vary); 22 tanks and 10 Bradleys among other losses. In spite of these losses the Ukrainians launched another attack on July 27th in the Zaporizhe region. The Russian MoD report suggests that they lost 280 men KIA along with 39 pieces of military equipment including 25 tanks. Nearly 900 Ukrainian men were killed on this day. I can’t believe that after the huge losses of July 26th they should attack again on the 27th with masses of armour. To make matters worse they attacked again on the 28th July and lost 180 men killed, 5 tanks and 19 armoured fighting vehicles. But the weather has now deteriorated in this area making further attacks problematic. I bet the Ukrainian infantry will be glad of the respite.

Bradley Square

Ukraine continues offensive actions in the Zaporizhe direction and early on the morning of 26th July they launched an attack in the ‘Bradley Square’ area with 20 armoured vehicles.

Kleshcheevka (Southern flank of Bakhmut/Artemovsk) Report - 26th July - MoA

‘Kleshcheevka on the southern flank remains with the RF Armed Forces. All previous assaults of the Armed Forces of the Ukraine bogged down. Ukrainian troops were knocked out of the village. As expected, a few dozen attacks of varying intensity and density did not help the Armed Forces of the Ukraine to gain a foothold.

Ukrainian resources write that the most powerful artillery fire and competent control of the units of the RF Armed Forces did not allow the units of the Armed Forces of the Ukraine to pass and forced them to retreat with huge losses.

During raids on the fortified areas of the RF Armed Forces in this area, Kiev units regularly lost a battalion a day.

As in Zaporozhye, cluster shells did not help the Armed Forces of the Ukraine break through the defenses’.

Engineers of the Black Sea Fleet 🇷🇺
@Cyberspecnews (from the MoA).

In spite of setbacks, the Ukrainians are having more success in Artemovsk/Bakhmut than elsewhere because the Russians have not built substantial defences here.

Avdeevka

The Russians continue their efforts to surround this settlement.

The biggest fights are happening in the above areas but fierce artillery exchanges are being conducted all along the fronts. The Ukrainians have considerably increased their attacks on civilians in Donetsk and Belgorod regions.

The Blame Game

German newspaper, ‘Bild’ is reporting that the German military is blaming Ukrainian commanders for the failure of the offensive because they are not sticking to the combined arms tactics that they have been taught by NATO. This is not the first time I have heard this claim btw. But what they fail to mention is that such tactics can hope to succeed only if you have air superiority which NATO usually has.

The Economic War

End of The Grain Deal

It is no surprise that the West is characterising Russia’s decision not to renew its involvement with the deal after July 17th as a form of blackmail; the weaponising of food and so on. If you would like to read some debunking of the West’s claims have a look at this article by Dances with Bears. Putin has announced that Russia will replace Ukrainian grain supplies that have been affected by the collapse of the grain deal. Only a small fraction of this grain was going to poor countries. Putin said: ‘I want to give assurances that our country is capable of replacing the Ukrainian grain both on a commercial and donated basis. Russia will continue its energetic efforts to provide supplies of grain, food products, fertilizers and other products to Africa’. This was reported by RT which also interviewed African representatives attending the Russia-Africa summit who were very grateful for Putin’s assurances.

Russian Oil

In spite of attempts to place a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian oil it is currently being sold way above the cap.

Russia Goes Digital

Vladimir Putin has passed a law that will make a Russian digital currency legal tender.

Russia Bans IMF

Russia has outlawed the IMF which, it said, is simply a tool employed by the West to oppress nations.

EU Industrial Decline/Russian Growth

Car manufacturing in the EU declined by a staggering 36.58% during the first half of this year. Aluminium production has also declined generally but Slovakian metallurgical company Slovalko saw production fall by 60% - according to Dialogue works. On the other hand Russia’s economy continues to do well having achieved 2% growth.

Politics

Strelkov Arrested

A Russian blogger who goes under the name of Ivanovic Strelkov has been arrested for ‘extremism’. Some say his remarks went beyond the bounds of what is acceptable. Referring to Putin, he said "the country will not be able to withstand another six years of this cowardly bum in power." Clearly the Prigozhin affair has made the Kremlin nervous. You can read more about it here.

Putin Warns Poland

In a speech at the Russian Security Council on July 21st Putin warned Poland about trying to occupy part of Ukraine with a ‘peacekeeping force’ (along with Lithuania) as a pretext for annexing part of the country. The Lviv area of western Ukraine has been part of Polish territory in the past. Putin was a little cagey with regard to Russia’s response to such a move but the fact that he mentioned it in his speech suggests that this was a warning to Poland and Lithuania that they should not get involved in Ukraine. Lukashenko is quite clearly opposed to any occupation of western Ukraine by Poland which would threaten Belarus’s security. Putin also suggested that Poland has ambitions to annex part of Belarus and made it clear that an attack here would be regarded as an attack on Russia. If you’d like to know more about Putin’s speech have a look at this. There’s a fair bit of ‘sabre rattling’ going on here in my view and I would be very surprised if Poland and Lithuania decided to annex western Ukraine. But even the ‘eternal optimist’ in me would have to concede that this is possible.

Biden and Son

There is a possibility that Sleepy Joe could face impeachment for lying about his involvement in son Hunter’s business dealings. But I wouldn’t hold your breath. If it does happen, it may impact on the Ukraine conflict. If you are interested in finding out more have a look at this.

RFK Jnr

Robert Kennedy Junior recently stated that: “If a government can censor its critics, that’s a license for every atrocity. It is the beginning of totalitarianism...“. He is referring to attacks on himself of course but the same sort of thing is happening in Ukraine and throughout the Western world.

Shoigu in North Korea

Sergei Shoigu visited North Korea this week. He met with Kim Jong Un to discuss ‘tactical and strategic defence cooperation between the two countries’. Shoigu attended a parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the end of the Korean war. Is this a warning, I wonder. There has been a lot of intimacy between the RoW countries recently which could be construed as a closing of ranks among them - just as fish close ranks when confronted by a predator.

German Anti War Video

The German opposition produced this very funny, well made and short video opposing the funding of Ukraine’s war effort. I enjoyed it.

The Emerging Multi-Polar World Order

Russian-African Summit

This took place in St. Petersburg on 27th - 29th July. 49 of the 54 African countries were represented including 17 leaders of state. The provision of grain, fertilizers and other products to Africa amidst concerns about shortages will head the agenda. African leaders made a commitment to boost bilateral ties with Russia. So much for Russian ‘isolation’. At the opening of the Summit Putin said: ‘Today, Africa is asserting itself more confidently as one of the poles of the emerging multipolar world’. He also urged African countries to abandon the dollar and switch to national currencies. RT is reporting that delegates are ‘talking from their hearts’ and it is a joy to see. Russia has cancelled African debts totaling $23 billion dollars and has agreed military-technical cooperation with 40 African states. And all this was instigated by that monster Putin.

These are the main points from Putin’s speech at the Summit.

40 Countries Want To Join BRICS

According to African Insider, 40 countries are keen on joining BRICS. Egypt is among those in the process of joining. ‘The times, they are a changing’.

Narrative Creativity

The New York Times is reporting that The White House is optimistic about Ukraine’s offensive and its capacity to achieve its objectives within 1-3 weeks. That’s about as creative as you can be in your narrative construction. It matters little that it bears absolutely no relation to reality. But when you have the legacy media on your side and can censor alterative narratives you can’t lose really - but only in the short term. This applies to all of the false narratives that are being shoved down our throats here in the West.

Donetsk Memorial Day

The 27th July was memorial day for the 228 innocent children who have been killed by the Ukrainians in Donetsk during the past 9 years. Spare a thought for them because the West doesn’t.

1. Russian defences were strengthened as soon as Surovikin took over last autumn. The attempts at clearing the mines failed because Ukraine did not have sufficient artillery and air defences to suppress Russian firepower while the mines were being cleared. Thus the Ukrainians attempted mine clearing while under fire and they failed (keep failing) miserably.

2. In truth, Ukrainian hopes of reaching Tokmak, Melitopol or Crimea have been dashed because the Russians have the edge in drone warfare among other things. For me, at least, there is now overwhelming evidence that the nature of war has changed forever. Apologies to those who have already figured this out. You may know that as the American Civil war progressed during the 1860s, there was a growing sense that tactics had not caught up with developments in weaponry which had become more accurate, more powerful and therefore more deadly for infantrymen. Towards the end of the war more emphasis was placed on entrenchments and this continued 50 years later during the First World War. The tank and air power helped to resolve the problem during the Second World War on land. On the sea, the vulnerability of battle ships, as demonstrated by the Japanese, was alleviated by the air craft carrier. But recent developments achieved by the Russians could render the ‘protection’ provided by the air craft carrier impotent. In the same way, the ‘intelligent’ drone has placed in question the orthodox tactics currently being employed by Ukraine’s armed forces. The build up of forces required for an ‘armoured fist’ cannot hide from the eye in the sky or the Lancets which are ready to pounce on unsuspecting troop concentrations or armoured columns. But Ukraine also suffers from a lack of airpower and air defence which is necessary for orthodox ‘combined arms’ tactics and is incapable of achieving the necessary superiority in manpower and equipment necessary for a successful offensive against an enemy in entrenched positions.