Regarding Trump, he is all over the attack on Iran while pretending to be trying to restrain Israel. He is ramping up the threats to Iran at this very moment. I would guess it is the same double-dealing for Russia as well. I can't see either of these ending well.
Jacques Baud is on the money regarding the Ukraine conflict. When he was with NATO he was part of the body that was supposedly ensuring that the Minsk agreements were being upheld. He was also looking for Russian soldiers as part of the breakaway armies of the Donbas, who he stated were never there. The armies were made up of ex-Ukraine Army units who defected due to the continual attacks on the Russian speaking populations. Thus a civil war was ongoing.
The Russian responsibility to protect Russian speakers is no different to the NATO excuse of the same when they wanted to attack Serbia in the name of protecting the Kosovars except that for NATO it was a pretext for the destruction of Yugoslavia. Putin wanted to stay out of the conflict with the breakaway Republics, telling them to sort it out with Kiev however this was not possible as Kiev wanted a war with Russia and this was their means to achieve it. Sorry about the recapitulation of these events but Jacques Baud was on the ground and saw what was happening and it wasn't Russia trying to steal a few oblasts from Ukraine.
I've just been watching Brian Berletic, who I've been following for years, and he believes that Iran will struggle to deal with this on its own. He suggests that BRICS counties - especially Russia and China, should get involved by putting pressure on the US. I agree: all BRICS countries should step onto the stage now: their historical moment has come.
I agree with you there Rob. Brian Berletic is a very clear eyed observer and it is hard to fault his conclusions. I think that the BRICS should all stand together as they will be taken apart separately which I think is the plan.
Just been listening to Pepe Escobar talking with Nima and he is saying essentially the same thing and in Moscow, where he is at the moment many are saying this as well according to him. He sees this whole play as an effort to disrupt the BRICS and it's hard to disagree.
They may not wish to be part of a military alliance but the forces arraigned against them are pushing them in that direction whether they like it or not.
I think that there is a lot of shadow play happening and a lot going on behind firmly closed doors. I think the whole world is coming to the conclusion the the West can't be negotiated with.
Coincidentally, I was watching Pepe talking with Nima when I saw your message. The Iranian's initial response to Witkoff's approach was skeptical and they refused to negotiate directly but with hindsight I bet they have concluded that the West is incapable of sticking to agreements.
Russia was supplying arms to the Donbas before the SMO started, and Wagner troops were in there assisting the Donbas militias, BUT the Russian army was not. Why? Because until those two regions held referenda, became independent, Russia recognised their independence, and they then asked Russia for help, Russia could not legally intervene. Wargner are a private army, not part of the state apparatus, though they were financed by Russia. A fine point, but it gets around UN rules of engagement. Putin is very law-abiding.
Thanks for the update Rob. I cant really believe they attacked Iran so soon, especially whilst talks were ongoing with the US. Well nothing the zionists do any more surprises me really.
The West's fingerprints. as usual, are all over it including pro Israel Trump. They have given Israel a licence to kill and they wont care if it costs millions of lives.
The writing was sort of on the wall when the message came through for evacuation of diplomats and foreigners from Iraq etc.
Cheers Anthony. Iran may have taken its eye off the ball because 'pretend' negotiations were happening. But Iran should have retaliated before now in response to Israel's attack last year. Anyway, it will be a nervy week or so.
Yes but it was the same trick with Hezbollah's leaders, Russian. They always negotiate in bad faith. Same in UK with the 2014 indy referendum they actually tricked the Scottish populace with the Vow, EU membership, BBC misreporting etc etc.
As it turned out, Iran's air defences were disabled by drones and a cyber attack. We all know that Iran has now recovered. Hey, did you hear about Piers Morgan's Damascene moment. Have a listen to this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgjYFcRQmm4 It's a bit sentimental in my view but it's good to have him on board.
It's difficult to judge matters at this stage because there is so much we don't know. I hear that Tehran has just been targeted again but air defences did not respond - which is worrying. I imagine that Iran will now develop a nuclear weapon as a matter of urgency. I am not sure how fast Iran can respond to the depletion of its AD - if that is what has happened - but they will be seeking Russian assistance maybe.
I don't know if you saw some footage fairly recently of a drone strike on a Ukrainian army held house. The solders come running out and just behind then comes running a cat following them. I don't know if it was the same in every war but this seems to be a cat dominated battle for some reason. Probably the owners have fled and the cats have gravitated to other humans ie soldiers.
I missed a post a few weeks ago re the contrary view of why Russia entered the war. I don't think we can overlook the issues faced by Crimea and the need for fresh water as a major factor. The Russians moved pretty swiftly to capture the water sources right at the start of the SMO and remember the 2023 Ukrainian offensive was geared towards severing that link.
Great piece. The reason the Ukrainians are holding on is not because of tenaciousness its more to do with the fact that the Russians are actually employing relatively few troops on the contact line. Its a war of attrition and the Russians are slowly excising the Ukrainians. I don't know if part of the go slow is to hold down Nato assets for a prolonged period to stop them arking towards China. If Ukraine is defeated perversely Nato can pivot towards Asia.
Taiwan' s looking tasty if you are Chinese. I had that thought this morning and i see im not the only one. They wont attack but you can see the temptation the US has created.
You'd think he was the only one predicting this. Many have been saying that China is the true target but that's not strictly true: BRICS is the main target.
The lunacy of European elites calling for ever more war and defence spending is shameful.
We have the same thing in Canada with normal conservatives supporting moar defense! and even Canada’s stated intent to help with Europe’s defence. Like Canada even needs defense; the US would protect any foreign incursion into North America anyway.
Our fascination with weapons and war is a crime against humanity.
Thanks Rob for another fact-packed report on a very eventful week.
Kim has said that North Korea will aid Iran in its fight against the toxic state. Russia has its arms full with Ukraine, and its support of the Sahel states, but China is free to act. Given how badly Israel has overreached, WW3 could well have started in earnest.
And Rubio's lies are about protecting the US bases in West Asia. Fat chance.
McGregor, in an interview this week, claimed that Zelensky visited Israel 12 times before Feb 2022. The two wars are not unconnected.
Reports are coming in that Netanyahu has fled Israel. He is thought to have gone to Greece. We can only hope that the Zionist Project will soon be at an end.
Great article as always, and though I'm just a quarter of the way through it I'd like to highlight two points while I have the time. One, concerning the resiliency of the AFU, regardless all the reports suggesting otherwise, which you note, I come back to an old but generally reliable chestnut regarding becoming bankrupt: "A little bit at a time, then all at once". Yes, that's simplistic, but imo we'll see petite instances of "all at once" becoming more common and then starting to become decidedly larger and more significant. Advancing to the rear can be done in a slow and deliberate fashion, but over time, and especially with forced conscripts, it will tend to become less and less under the control of those in charge.
Two: Regarding "... only 38% of Ukrainians are willing to give up territory for peace. This figure was 87% in the fall of 2022.", I'm reminded of the quote "Lies, damn lies, and statistics". In 2022 it's possible most Ukrainians considered "giving up territory" to imply losing Crimea for good, and making concessions over control of some of the territory of the contested oblasts. Losing Crimea will always rankle nationalistic minded Ukrainians, but they can be realists about it. The prospect of losing the Russia loving dissidents in the contested areas came with a degree of "good riddance!", imo.
But now, here in 2025, "to give up territory for peace" comes within the context of them seeing Putin as a tyrant grasping to engulf huge swathes of Ukraine. So of course they recoil from that.
Two minor quibbles that don't spoil in the least my enjoyment of the banquet of content you laid out for us. Thank you for it!
Is Starmer really sending jets to help Israel defend itself? Defend itself? Do they never tire of war? Isn't this clown setting up an attack on Cyprus. Idiot.
I forgot to say there was speculation on Moon that Russia may strike UK assets due to alleged British involvement in the terrorist attacks on Russia. We are definitely in the cross hairs particularly as the expendable power in the West that everyone detests anyway.
I hope the Brits get it in the neck. I'm getting sick of the mantra 'Israel has a right to defend itself' after it has attacked Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, Lebanon and now Iran. It's a bit like saying that Hitler and Germany, after attacking Czechoslovakia, Poland, France and Russia - had a right to defend itself.
First of all you are delusional if you actually believe that Putin or Russia as a whole care about Russian speaking Ukrainians. He. Does. Not. Just look what the Russians have done to Kharkiv or Donetsk or Luhansk. All cities contain Russian speaking Ukrainians and they have all been practically flattened! hundreds of captured Russian speaking Ukrainians have been horrifically tortured by the Russians. What about that makes you think they care? Also its not 'Ukrainian Terrorist attacks' as you put it. Russian missiles bomb schools and hospitals, Ukrainian missiles bomb the missiles that aim at civilians. In addition if actually want to be factually correct its Kyiv not 'Kiev" as you have so incorrectly wrote. You are so far up the Russian Propaganda i suggest you move there yourself! Oh wait you'll immediately be sent to kill Ukrainians!
Wow. I lot of Kool Aid has been consumed here. Russia's initial retaliation was with 407 drones and 40 missiles. 4 civilians were killed. If Russia was targeting civilians they are notoriously inefficient. Or could it be that, in fact, they were targeting military infrastructure - which is what they have been doing all along?
What about the nearly 57,000 ukrainians killed since the start of the full scale invasion in 2022? What about the 20,000 ukrainian children who have been kidnapped by the Russians and forcibly transferred into russia?
Actually Col Douglas McGregor puts the number of troops killed on the Ukrainian side at 1.5 million. Not injured, killed. If by "people" you mean civilians, then I think you are more likely thinking the number of Gazans killed. Regardless of which, it is the US armaments that are doing the vast majority of the killing of civilians. As for the children "kidnapped" 337 children were taken to Russia after the SMO started because their parents/relatives could not be found in the chaos in the Donbas. Russia did try to find their relatives and many have now been reunited with their families. In the other direction, a large number of Ukrainian children were trafficked to Europe. Also, the quantity of removed children that were alleged in the ICC charges against Putin, it was later found, were actually taken to Germany.
Great update Rob of a very eventful week.
Regarding Trump, he is all over the attack on Iran while pretending to be trying to restrain Israel. He is ramping up the threats to Iran at this very moment. I would guess it is the same double-dealing for Russia as well. I can't see either of these ending well.
Jacques Baud is on the money regarding the Ukraine conflict. When he was with NATO he was part of the body that was supposedly ensuring that the Minsk agreements were being upheld. He was also looking for Russian soldiers as part of the breakaway armies of the Donbas, who he stated were never there. The armies were made up of ex-Ukraine Army units who defected due to the continual attacks on the Russian speaking populations. Thus a civil war was ongoing.
The Russian responsibility to protect Russian speakers is no different to the NATO excuse of the same when they wanted to attack Serbia in the name of protecting the Kosovars except that for NATO it was a pretext for the destruction of Yugoslavia. Putin wanted to stay out of the conflict with the breakaway Republics, telling them to sort it out with Kiev however this was not possible as Kiev wanted a war with Russia and this was their means to achieve it. Sorry about the recapitulation of these events but Jacques Baud was on the ground and saw what was happening and it wasn't Russia trying to steal a few oblasts from Ukraine.
I've just been watching Brian Berletic, who I've been following for years, and he believes that Iran will struggle to deal with this on its own. He suggests that BRICS counties - especially Russia and China, should get involved by putting pressure on the US. I agree: all BRICS countries should step onto the stage now: their historical moment has come.
I agree with you there Rob. Brian Berletic is a very clear eyed observer and it is hard to fault his conclusions. I think that the BRICS should all stand together as they will be taken apart separately which I think is the plan.
Just been listening to Pepe Escobar talking with Nima and he is saying essentially the same thing and in Moscow, where he is at the moment many are saying this as well according to him. He sees this whole play as an effort to disrupt the BRICS and it's hard to disagree.
They may not wish to be part of a military alliance but the forces arraigned against them are pushing them in that direction whether they like it or not.
I think that there is a lot of shadow play happening and a lot going on behind firmly closed doors. I think the whole world is coming to the conclusion the the West can't be negotiated with.
Coincidentally, I was watching Pepe talking with Nima when I saw your message. The Iranian's initial response to Witkoff's approach was skeptical and they refused to negotiate directly but with hindsight I bet they have concluded that the West is incapable of sticking to agreements.
Thanks for that Chris.
Russia was supplying arms to the Donbas before the SMO started, and Wagner troops were in there assisting the Donbas militias, BUT the Russian army was not. Why? Because until those two regions held referenda, became independent, Russia recognised their independence, and they then asked Russia for help, Russia could not legally intervene. Wargner are a private army, not part of the state apparatus, though they were financed by Russia. A fine point, but it gets around UN rules of engagement. Putin is very law-abiding.
The start of the war in Donbass seems like so long ago now.
The propaganda and lies were thick then as well.
Do you remember the pictures of the supposed Russian BUK (the one that shot MH17 down) slowly leaving Donbass.
I always wondered who it belonged to?
My theory was that it could well have been Russian, perhaps not.
The reasons it was operating in the Donbass are interesting.
Civil aviation was strangely being allowed to fly over a warzone.
The UA air force was supposedly following these passenger jets (using them as decoys to avoid radar detection) whilst completing their bombing runs.
Back then people used to say 'The Only Difference Between The Truth And A Conspiracy Theory Is About 6 Months'
Ratcheted up by war mongers and their MSM plaything ever since.
Thanks for the update Rob. I cant really believe they attacked Iran so soon, especially whilst talks were ongoing with the US. Well nothing the zionists do any more surprises me really.
The West's fingerprints. as usual, are all over it including pro Israel Trump. They have given Israel a licence to kill and they wont care if it costs millions of lives.
The writing was sort of on the wall when the message came through for evacuation of diplomats and foreigners from Iraq etc.
God help the world.
Cheers Anthony. Iran may have taken its eye off the ball because 'pretend' negotiations were happening. But Iran should have retaliated before now in response to Israel's attack last year. Anyway, it will be a nervy week or so.
Yes but it was the same trick with Hezbollah's leaders, Russian. They always negotiate in bad faith. Same in UK with the 2014 indy referendum they actually tricked the Scottish populace with the Vow, EU membership, BBC misreporting etc etc.
As it turned out, Iran's air defences were disabled by drones and a cyber attack. We all know that Iran has now recovered. Hey, did you hear about Piers Morgan's Damascene moment. Have a listen to this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgjYFcRQmm4 It's a bit sentimental in my view but it's good to have him on board.
It seems the Western leader thought process is that in order to stop the chance of nuclear war you have to start a nuclear war.
With regards to the Iran knows part of your update it wouldn't surprise me if Iran targets the Israeli nuclear facilities first.
They will have to act and they will know the US is gunning for them as well, whatever they do, so they may go in heavy.
It's difficult to judge matters at this stage because there is so much we don't know. I hear that Tehran has just been targeted again but air defences did not respond - which is worrying. I imagine that Iran will now develop a nuclear weapon as a matter of urgency. I am not sure how fast Iran can respond to the depletion of its AD - if that is what has happened - but they will be seeking Russian assistance maybe.
I don't know if you saw some footage fairly recently of a drone strike on a Ukrainian army held house. The solders come running out and just behind then comes running a cat following them. I don't know if it was the same in every war but this seems to be a cat dominated battle for some reason. Probably the owners have fled and the cats have gravitated to other humans ie soldiers.
I missed a post a few weeks ago re the contrary view of why Russia entered the war. I don't think we can overlook the issues faced by Crimea and the need for fresh water as a major factor. The Russians moved pretty swiftly to capture the water sources right at the start of the SMO and remember the 2023 Ukrainian offensive was geared towards severing that link.
I remember that Mike - the Russians wanted to create a corridor in Kherson and Zaporozhye.
The ex-comedian Zelensky used to make jokes about Crimeans not having any water on his sketch as well Mike.
Cheers.
Great piece. The reason the Ukrainians are holding on is not because of tenaciousness its more to do with the fact that the Russians are actually employing relatively few troops on the contact line. Its a war of attrition and the Russians are slowly excising the Ukrainians. I don't know if part of the go slow is to hold down Nato assets for a prolonged period to stop them arking towards China. If Ukraine is defeated perversely Nato can pivot towards Asia.
Taiwan' s looking tasty if you are Chinese. I had that thought this morning and i see im not the only one. They wont attack but you can see the temptation the US has created.
I checked to see if our old friend RHS had posted. He has. Gloating. I have to say he did argue this would come to pass and the true target is: China.
You'd think he was the only one predicting this. Many have been saying that China is the true target but that's not strictly true: BRICS is the main target.
Good stuff, as usual, Rob.
The lunacy of European elites calling for ever more war and defence spending is shameful.
We have the same thing in Canada with normal conservatives supporting moar defense! and even Canada’s stated intent to help with Europe’s defence. Like Canada even needs defense; the US would protect any foreign incursion into North America anyway.
Our fascination with weapons and war is a crime against humanity.
Cheers Occam
Thanks Rob for another fact-packed report on a very eventful week.
Kim has said that North Korea will aid Iran in its fight against the toxic state. Russia has its arms full with Ukraine, and its support of the Sahel states, but China is free to act. Given how badly Israel has overreached, WW3 could well have started in earnest.
And Rubio's lies are about protecting the US bases in West Asia. Fat chance.
McGregor, in an interview this week, claimed that Zelensky visited Israel 12 times before Feb 2022. The two wars are not unconnected.
Reports are coming in that Netanyahu has fled Israel. He is thought to have gone to Greece. We can only hope that the Zionist Project will soon be at an end.
Cheer Joy
Great article as always, and though I'm just a quarter of the way through it I'd like to highlight two points while I have the time. One, concerning the resiliency of the AFU, regardless all the reports suggesting otherwise, which you note, I come back to an old but generally reliable chestnut regarding becoming bankrupt: "A little bit at a time, then all at once". Yes, that's simplistic, but imo we'll see petite instances of "all at once" becoming more common and then starting to become decidedly larger and more significant. Advancing to the rear can be done in a slow and deliberate fashion, but over time, and especially with forced conscripts, it will tend to become less and less under the control of those in charge.
Two: Regarding "... only 38% of Ukrainians are willing to give up territory for peace. This figure was 87% in the fall of 2022.", I'm reminded of the quote "Lies, damn lies, and statistics". In 2022 it's possible most Ukrainians considered "giving up territory" to imply losing Crimea for good, and making concessions over control of some of the territory of the contested oblasts. Losing Crimea will always rankle nationalistic minded Ukrainians, but they can be realists about it. The prospect of losing the Russia loving dissidents in the contested areas came with a degree of "good riddance!", imo.
But now, here in 2025, "to give up territory for peace" comes within the context of them seeing Putin as a tyrant grasping to engulf huge swathes of Ukraine. So of course they recoil from that.
Two minor quibbles that don't spoil in the least my enjoyment of the banquet of content you laid out for us. Thank you for it!
Is Starmer really sending jets to help Israel defend itself? Defend itself? Do they never tire of war? Isn't this clown setting up an attack on Cyprus. Idiot.
I forgot to say there was speculation on Moon that Russia may strike UK assets due to alleged British involvement in the terrorist attacks on Russia. We are definitely in the cross hairs particularly as the expendable power in the West that everyone detests anyway.
I hope the Brits get it in the neck. I'm getting sick of the mantra 'Israel has a right to defend itself' after it has attacked Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, Lebanon and now Iran. It's a bit like saying that Hitler and Germany, after attacking Czechoslovakia, Poland, France and Russia - had a right to defend itself.
First of all you are delusional if you actually believe that Putin or Russia as a whole care about Russian speaking Ukrainians. He. Does. Not. Just look what the Russians have done to Kharkiv or Donetsk or Luhansk. All cities contain Russian speaking Ukrainians and they have all been practically flattened! hundreds of captured Russian speaking Ukrainians have been horrifically tortured by the Russians. What about that makes you think they care? Also its not 'Ukrainian Terrorist attacks' as you put it. Russian missiles bomb schools and hospitals, Ukrainian missiles bomb the missiles that aim at civilians. In addition if actually want to be factually correct its Kyiv not 'Kiev" as you have so incorrectly wrote. You are so far up the Russian Propaganda i suggest you move there yourself! Oh wait you'll immediately be sent to kill Ukrainians!
Calling people delusional because they hold a certain view is not an argument Ems.
Wow. I lot of Kool Aid has been consumed here. Russia's initial retaliation was with 407 drones and 40 missiles. 4 civilians were killed. If Russia was targeting civilians they are notoriously inefficient. Or could it be that, in fact, they were targeting military infrastructure - which is what they have been doing all along?
What about the nearly 57,000 ukrainians killed since the start of the full scale invasion in 2022? What about the 20,000 ukrainian children who have been kidnapped by the Russians and forcibly transferred into russia?
Actually Col Douglas McGregor puts the number of troops killed on the Ukrainian side at 1.5 million. Not injured, killed. If by "people" you mean civilians, then I think you are more likely thinking the number of Gazans killed. Regardless of which, it is the US armaments that are doing the vast majority of the killing of civilians. As for the children "kidnapped" 337 children were taken to Russia after the SMO started because their parents/relatives could not be found in the chaos in the Donbas. Russia did try to find their relatives and many have now been reunited with their families. In the other direction, a large number of Ukrainian children were trafficked to Europe. Also, the quantity of removed children that were alleged in the ICC charges against Putin, it was later found, were actually taken to Germany.
What about all the the bandera stray air defence that hits civilian buildings, killing people, and is then blamed on Russia by Kiev or Kyiv whatever!
What about removing the language, religion and culture of half your population and installing a murderous banderist regime?
What about then shelling those territories that want no part of that?
What about lies and false statistics?
Give up and make peace.
Yes the Soviet union was not the greatest ever construction but that is in the past. These are peoples lives. Do you not get it?