Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update
18th April 2025
Athenian historian, Thucydides, writing in the wake of Athens’s disastrous Peloponnesian war with Sparta, said that he feared the coming of ‘a world in which the strong do what they can and the weak suffer as they must - and there’s no overarching authority, moral or otherwise’. Chas Freeman fears that this world is coming again - as he discusses at this point here. Other commentators share this rather gloomy prognosis but I am more optimistic. I believe that things are not as bad as they seem even though Donald J appears to be floundering (see ‘What is Trump Doing’ below).
In the Middle East, the Israelis continue the genocide. On April 15th, in their determination to destroy all that sustains Palestinian life, they targeted the Kuwaiti hospital near Khan Yunis. Their bile is still evident in Gaza, Lebanon, the West Bank and Syria. But noble Ansar-Allah, even as I write, are making sure that Israelis don’t forget that they are in a war, by making them scurry to bomb shelters, while Yemeni families at home are being killed by the Americans. In Syria, the situation is much the same, as tensions continue between Turkiye and Israel and Alawites continue to be killed on the coast. The Russians will want to stay in order to help create a stable, sovereign Syrian state, according to Lavrov. We live in hope. Talks between the US and Iran are ongoing (see below) while Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi met with Putin in Moscow on Thursday and Lavrov on Friday. He’s a busy man.
The Tariff War continues, with China and the US going toe to toe. The 90 day pause imposed by Trump in a panic, apparently, was later accompanied by a list of exemptions, including lap tops, semi-conductors and phones (and other electrical stuff). This shows that the original plan was not thought through properly. It appears that the US has underestimated China which was not expected to respond with reciprocal tariffs (see below).
The poor Europeans are in a tither yet some are determined that the Russians must be defeated. The ‘coalition of the willing’ can attract only 6 ‘willing’ countries while Kaja Kallas is failing in her fundraising activities and causing great offence to Russians with her remarks (see below). Meanwhile the sensible heads of European businesses are driven more by pragmaticism than morality and are calling for a return to Russian energy (see Economic War below). JD Vance has told the Europeans that the US does not want them as a security vassal and is encouraging them to sort out their own defence, while Steve Witkoff, following his meeting with Putin (see below), has been making hopeful and wishful noises that the US and Russia are close to an agreement while his compatriot Rubio is more pessimistic.
In Ukraine, Zelensky, speaking on the US ‘60 Minutes’ program, said that he would not negotiate with Putin because he cannot be trusted. He also criticised the Americans for remaining neutral in the talks and for the emergence of pro-Russian narratives in the US media. In response, Trump called the ‘60 minutes’ program ‘pure manipulation’ and deserved to lose its license. He described the Ukraine war as arising out of the rigged US election of 2020 which gave power to Biden. In another press conference, Zelensky criticised Witkoff, claiming that his comments on conceding territories were ‘outside [his] competence’. He sure knows how to make friends. The Ukrainians have broken the energy ceasefire several times a day, every day this week, demonstrating that they cannot be trusted to keep to a deal and that they do not want peace. A decision of renewing the deal has not been made but appears pointless to me. The ‘minerals deal’ between Ukraine and the US has still not been completed though progress has been made.
On the battlefronts, some Ukrainian sources claim that their army is ‘sagging’ in some places as the Russian push around Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka especially.
I would say that this week, events, though still historical, have calmed (relatively).
Peskov - Dances With Wife on Her Birthday
Dmitry Peskov brings his wife a bunch of roses for her birthday then dances with her on the ice as you can see at X. Sorry, I thought this was lovely even though it was staged. It is good to see these people in a different light.
What Is Trump Doing?
Thus far, Donald Trump has shown himself to be almost a carbon copy of Sleepy Joe Biden when it comes to Ukraine - as he extends sanctions on Russia for another year. But at least the US and Russia are talking, for now. Many of us are wondering what will happen in Ukraine and are trying not to think about what could happen in the Middle East. Trump appears to have become entangled in the reins of his predecessor: he seems to be prolonging a war he promised to end quickly. Many are asking why.
I spend much of my life listening to or reading political/economic commentators, including, Crooke; Ritter; Johnson; Martyanov; Sachs; Mearsheimer; Marandi; Doctorow; Marouf; Wolff; Escobar; Wilkerson; McGovern; Baud; Norfield; Krainer; Roberts; Mercouris; MacGregor; Davis; Berletic; Diesen and others. I have a great deal of respect for these people, all of whom have expertise in certain fields. But when it comes to Trump and his team they are not in agreement: no one really knows what Trump is doing and why - but there is much speculation. It is also difficult to determine which of Trump’s actions are part of ongoing US policies and which derive from Trump himself, his team and the dynamics of current US politics.
Challenging China is part of the US’s ongoing policies while some scope for independent action is available when it comes to Ukraine. Some believe that Trump is being ruled by Israel while some others have said that he hates Netanyahu. Still, others believe that Israel is simply a US tool. There are also those who believe that Trump and his team are not rational actors and they are worried about the implications of this, especially when it come to war with Iran - which could be conceived of only by irrational beings. An inside source with whom Larry Johnson is acquainted suggests that Trump is not acting rationally - as Larry discusses at this point in talks with McGovern and Diesen. But Larry also believes that Trump has heeded advice regarding Iran’s non-nuclear capability and is therefore modifying his demands. Trump will also be aware of the recent meeting between Russia, China and Iran in Moscow. The Johnson video is well worth watching at 23 mins in length.
I think we should attempt to understand Trump by taking into account his personality; his narcissism, his ignorance in many areas, his tendency to act according to his own instincts rather than heeding expert advice and his lack of experience as a politician. To be fair to Trump, as he navigates the forces surrounding him, I think we have to acknowledge that things are not easy for the new President.
At home, even within his own party, Trump faces fierce opposition from those, such as Rubio, Graham and Kellogg, who want to prolong the war in Ukraine and are promoting war with Iran. Away from home, the Globalist Europeans appear determined to place obstacles in his way so that the war can be prolonged. Furthermore, according to a Ukrainian source:
Our source in the OP said that Andriy Yermak is the main initiator of the confrontation with the Trump Administration, and all of Zelensky's actions and statements are coordinated with MI-6.
So, it looks as if the Brits have an important role to play in opposing Trump. And the once great Z, who wishes to continue to draw breath, also wants the war to continue. Furthermore, the Russians don’t want the war to stop because they are so close to victory. The ceasefire Trump wants does not suit the Russians - so they won’t support it.
Therefore, faced with all these obstacles, maybe Trump just doesn’t know what to do. This situation will be made more difficult if Trump is poorly advised or is reluctant to take advice. Politically, I don’t think it would be possible for him to abandon Ukraine completely by withdrawing technical support - though he seems to be handing over funding to the Europeans. His opponents would have a field day with that: it would make him too big a target for opponents and I don’t think he would welcome the opprobrium, personally.
Massively increasing funding and support to Ukraine would also make him look ridiculous, politically - given that he said he would end the war in 24 hours. So, maintaining the status quo, including the continuation of Russian sanctions, may be the easiest option for him at the moment. And maybe he has been acquainted with the true situation on the battlefronts and will therefore engage in deliberately prolonged negotiations which will still be incomplete when Russia wins the war militarily. But Trump still represents the ageing Hegemon and retains its most unattractive arrogant, hubristic and exceptionalist characteristics even though I believe he wishes to end the Ukraine war.
With regard to Iran, contrary to the views of some commentators, I am not convinced that Trump is serious about bombing. I think the bellicose rhetoric is more likely to be Trump theatre in which he, along with the legacy media, is creating a problem - i.e. a nuclear armed Iran, which doesn’t exist. Then, after talks, Trump will be able to say that he prevented Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. In doing so, he can satisfy the pro-Israeli lobby in the US. This won’t suit Netanyahu, who had called for commando/assassination raids into Iran, but he can hardly object. If an agreement is reached, he has no reason to attack Iran - though he is unlikely to give up on the idea and could arrange a false flag as an excuse to start a war. However, Netanyahu is not secure politically and his army, according to this report, faces manpower shortages and is not strong enough to dominate Gaza.
According to this report, an attack on Iran was under consideration by the Trump Team and planned for May. However, Trump received advice from Vance, Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard that a strike on Iran would be ‘catastrophic’ and lead to a wider war in the Middle East - so he decided on negotiations instead. You can read more at Sputnik.
Trump’s Tariff Wars are discussed below under Economic War.
Witkoff-Putin
The two statesmen discussed the Ukraine conflict and other matters for 4 hours on the 11th April. Information about the meeting, held behind closed doors, is scanty. The Kremlin said that the meeting discussed ‘aspects of the settlement of the Ukraine conflict' while Whitehouse spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt said the meeting was aimed at facilitating direct US communications with the Kremlin as part of a broader effort to negotiate a ceasefire and eventual peace agreement in the Ukraine conflict. This places a ceasefire prior to the peace agreement - which the Russians are strongly opposed to. Witkoff himself was upbeat, claiming that Russia and the US are close to an agreement aimed at permanent and sustainable peace.
Ukraine-US Talks - Paris - April 17th
Head of Zelensky's office Yermak, FM Sibiga & Defense Minister Umerov have arrived in Paris for talks with US' Rubio and Witkoff. Yermak says meetings are also planned with coalition of the willing countries, including the UK and France.
According to the Two Majors, Rubio phoned Lavrov following the meeting and advised that:
….contacts took place in line with the topics of consultations held between Washington and Moscow, including Putin's recent conversation with Witkoff in St. Petersburg.
However, the meeting of the Ukrainians, Americans and the Europeans agreed that a ‘complete and unconditional ceasefire should be the first step towards sustainable peace in Ukraine'. But the Russians will not agree to that and will point to ‘nuances’. Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s permanent representative at the UN, has said that a ceasefire in Ukraine at this stage is unrealistic. In an interview following the meeting, Rubio said that unless a ceasefire deal is reached within days the US may pull out of its role as mediator.
‘Europeans want ‘Nazi’ Regime to Remain’ - Lavrov
Sergei Lavrov, referring to ‘peacekeeping’ missions such as the failed ‘coalition of the willing’, believes that the Europeans wish the Ukrainian regime to retain its Nazi/anti-Russian character even after Zelensky leaves. Globalist political actors such as Kallas, von der Leyen and Metz have been beating the anti-Russian drum for all its worth but more rational economic actors such as CEOs are more pragmatic and want a reproachment with the Russians (see Economic War below).
Venice Commission: Ukrainians Can Refuse Mobilisation
Legally, Ukraine has no right to mobilise citizens against their will and can appeal to the ECHR, the UN or the Ukrainian Ombudsmen.
Zelensky Hates Russians
Sergei Lavrov has said that the US understands that the four new oblasts - Zaporozhye; Kherson; Luhansk and Donetsk cannot be given back to Ukraine because they have voted overwhelmingly to join the Russian Federation. He also said that Zelensky cannot be trusted with these regions because he has stated on several occasions that he hates Russians. But this could also apply to oblasts such as Kharkov, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk etc. where the majority speak the Russian language. How fit is Zelensky to rule over people he hates and whose language and culture he despises. The Russians will be taking this into account in deciding how far west they will proceed.
Kellogg’s Vision
Kellogg has accused the press of misrepresenting him but these were his words:
You could almost make it look like what happened with Berlin… when you had a Russian zone, a French zone, and a British zone, a US zone.
Whatever he meant, this was the subject of disputes between the hawks and doves in Washington.
Bezuglaya’s Back
Ukraine MP Maryana Bezuglaya was critical of the Mayor of Sumy for inviting civilians to the military gathering at Sumy University (see below) and she was scathing in her condemnation of Donald J for blaming the war on Ukraine and Biden. She is reported to have said:
Trump accused Ukraine of starting the war, and not Russia attacking us. The US is Russia's ally now, unfortunately. Theoretically, the situation is a reason to terminate diplomatic relations with the US.
She has a point, but Maryana should really be asking why the Russians attacked.1
The International Public Tribunal
The Tribunal (part of the ICC) has produced a report which draws on direct testimonies of victims and accuses neo-Nazis within the Ukrainian armed forces of war crimes, including organised mass shootings, murder, torture, beatings, rape and ‘disappearances’ of Russian speaking citizens who have been subjected to ‘constant terror’ since 2014.
Ukraine Terrorist Attacks
11th/12th April
Overnight, 18 aircraft-type drones were shot down over Kursk and 13 over Rostov. Two drones were destroyed over Belgorod, 2 over Oryol and 1 over Krasnador.
13th/14th April
Overnight, a truck was attacked by drones in the village of Rakitnoye (Belgorod). The driver was killed. Elsewhere in Belgorod, drones wounded two civilians while in Zaporozhye shelling damaged civilian homes. Finally, in the DPR a man was injured by an explosive device. In total, 33 drones were shot down over Bryansk, 10 over Oryol, 3 each over Kursk and Tula, 2 over Kaluga and 1 over Belgorod - according to the Russian MoD.
14th/15th April
Overnight, the Ukrainians launched a large drone attack on high rise residential buildings in Kursk. An 85 year old woman was killed and 9 more people injured while many houses and vehicles were damaged. An ambulance station was also attacked and 11 ambulances destroyed/damaged. In Kherson region, 3 people were killed and 9 injured by shelling which targeted civilians and civilian areas while 2 more civilians were injured by shelling in the DPR. I doubt that the legacy media will report on this. According to the Russian MoD:
109 UAVs were shot down over the Kursk region; 3 over Voronezhskay and one each over the territories of the Moscow region, Bryansk and Oryol regions.
15th/16th April
Overnight, 10 drones were shot down over Voronezh. Elsewhere, 53 drones attacked residential and business premises in Bryansk where 20 homes were burned to the ground. However, no casualties were reported. Belgorod suffered shelling and drone attacks which caused damage but no casualties, while a 9 story residential building was hit by drones and a warehouse set alight. Finally, in the DPR a woman was injured by falling drone fragments and a man was injured by cluster munitions.
16th/17th April
Overnight, many villages in Belgorod region came under attack from drones and artillery. A ten year old boy was killed when a ‘bell’ mine exploded in his hands. One drone hit a car, injuring the driver. In the DPR, a seven year old girl was injured by a drone drop while an adult was injured by an exploding object as he mowed the lawn. In total, according to the Russian MoD:
49 drones were destroyed over Kursk; 7 over Oryol; 7 over Ryazan; 4 over Bryansk; 3 over Vladimir and 1 over Tula.
The Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant was attacked on the 17th April when a drone was shot down 300 metres short of the plant.
17th/18th April
Overnight, drones were shot down over Rostov and Voronezh. In Shebekinsky district of Belgorod, a drone hit a truck injuring the driver while in the DPR a nine year old boy was killed by drone strike. In total, 27 drones were destroyed over Voronezh; 12 over Belgorod; 12 over the Sea of Azov; 3 over Crimea and 1 each over Rostov and Krasnodar Krai.
The Air War (Map)
Ukrainian Air Defences Weakening
According to a Ukrainian source on April 17th:
In recent months, Ukrainian air defense has been seriously weakening, and strikes by Geran series drones have become very painful. Geraniums are increasingly taking out production, warehouses, logistics, repair bases, and even mobile air defense points in the rear, which is causing significant damage to Ukraine's defense capability.
According to sources, over the past three months, the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense has decreased by 50% - this is at a time when there are no massive missile strikes (the Kremlin has been stockpiling missiles lately).
The situation is getting worse.
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
11th/12th April
Overnight, the Russians launched Geranium strikes on targets in Dnepropetrovsk, Kiev, Kharkov, Odessa, Nikolaev, as well as in the Chernihiv and Kirovograd regions.
12th/13th April
Tragedy in Sumy
Overnight, Russian missiles attacked the Congress Centre of Sumy State University where a concentration of Ukrainian and foreign forces was meeting. Many civilians were killed in the attack. The forces were attending an awards ceremony which Maria Bezulglaya warned Syrsky against organising. According to this report, the Gauleiter of Sumy Oblast invited civilians, including children to what was the 7th anniversary of the founding of the 117th Troops Regiment Brigade.
It is no surprise that acting on intelligence, the Russians should have attacked this ceremony with so many troops present. I have no idea whether the Russians knew that civilians would have been attending. If they did know maybe they should not have attacked. But Ukrainians sources I have seen - admittedly anti-Zelensky - are condemning the authorities for inviting civilian families and press to a military parade in the City Centre close to the front in the middle of a war.
31 civilians were killed, including children, but some are suggesting that civilians were invited in the knowledge that they would be killed and the Russians blamed for deliberately attacking civilians. In view of the bad publicity this has generated through the circulation of images of the dead, I doubt whether the Russians would have launched the attack if they knew civilians were there. The press in the EU and the US have condemned the attacks yet fail to condemn the deliberate daily attacks on Russian civilians by the Ukrainians which I report on here.
According to this source, a Brigade commander and a deputy commander were among the dead. According to Sputnik, this was a legitimate military target and civilians should not have been in the area. 60 Ukrainians servicemen and foreign mercenaries were killed and 80 wounded. The Ukrainians have a strong reputation for using civilians as human shields and International Law prohibits the placement of military facilities in civilian areas. Another article in Sputnik reports that Ukrainians are blaming Zelensky for holding the celebration in a civilian area and are calling for the arrest of Volodymyr Artyukh, head of the military administration who was later dismissed, according to Sputnik.
When asked about the incident, Donald J said ‘it was an accident’ and the US has refused to issue a statement by the UN condemning the attack. It has to be said that this is an example of the welcome differences between Biden and Trump.
You can read more at RT.
13th/14th April
Overnight, the port area of Odessa was attacked with Geraniums. Dnepropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkov, Zaporozhye and Cherkasy were also attacked.
14th/15th April
Overnight, Russian missiles attacked Donbass; Zaporozhye; Kharkov, Sumy; Kherson and Poltava. You can see a full list of targets here.
15th/16th April
Overnight, Geraniums attacked Odessa; Kiev; Poltava; Dnepropetrovsk; Kirovograd; Zaporozhye and Sumy. You can view a full list of Russian strikes here.
16th/17th April
Overnight, Geraniums were reported over Dnepropetrovsk, Sumy and Izyum.
17th/18th April
Overnight, Geraniums were reported over Dnepropetrovsk and Kiev. According to this report, Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov were attacked by Cruise missiles.
Ukrainian Missile/Drone Attacks
12th April
The Ukrainians continue to break the ‘energy ceasefire’ by attacking power lines in two different districts of Belgorod. Hundreds were left without power.
13th April
Early on the 13th April, an electricity substation and an agricultural enterprise were attacked in Bryansk. Later, another substation was attacked in Bryansk along with a high voltage power line. A high voltage line was attacked in Zaporozhye, and another line was severed Kursk where a substation was also hit.
15th/16th April
In Belgorod region a high voltage power line and a substation were hit leaving a total of 22,000 people without electricity while in Bryansk two high voltage lines were hit. A high voltage line was hit in Kursk and a transformer was hit in Kherson. High voltage lines were also hit in Tver and Tula Regions.
The Ground War
I should say that I have not been able to find many reports with maps for the fronts this week. None are being published by Marat Khairullin for example.
Russian MoD Reports: Ukrainian Losses (excludes Kursk)
w/e 28th March 2025 10,780 Casualties, killed and wounded: equipment losses 459
w/e 4th April 2025 9,920 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 457
w/e 11th April 2025 10,635 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 552.
w/e 18th April 2025 10,040 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 638.
Kursk
The Fronts
Front Line Cats
Belgorod
By the end of the week, the Ukrainians were still trying to infiltrate into the Belgorod border area towards the village of Popovka.
Kursk
By the end of the week, the Russians were advancing in the area of the Nikolsky (St. Nicholas) Monastery, which had been in Ukrainian hands, and the village of Gornal
Kupyansk
On April 17th, according to Tass:
During active battles in the Kupyansk direction, our troops managed to improve tactical positions northeast of Figolevka. Also, after an advance and a clearance operation in a forest, Russian forces established new footholds southwest of this locality,"
Svatove-Kremmina
Seversk
Gorlovka
Konstantinovka
On the 17th April, according to Slavyangrad:
After the liberation of Valentinovka, Panteleimonovka and Alexandropol, Russian troops complete the defeat of the enemy in the village of Sukhaya Balka. Our soldiers raised the flag of Russia and Victory in the center of SukhaYa Balka. In recent days, the advance of Russian troops towards Konstantinovka has been more than 4 km.
On April 16th, the village of Kalinovo was liberated.
Pokrovsk
According to the Majors:
In the Pokrovsk direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are organizing counter-actions north of the settlement of Vozrozhdenie (on the map - Vidrodzhennya). At the same time, to the south, the Russian Armed Forces continue to move towards the Dnipropetrovsk region, battles are underway in the direction of Kotlyarovka, Troitske, Bogdanovka.
Preobrazhenka (top map) was liberated on the 17th April. By the 18th April, the Russians were advancing on Bogatyr and Otradnoye.
Zaporozhye-Orekhov
On April 17th, according to the Majors:
In the Orekhov direction of the Zaporozhye Front, in the area of the Stepovoye-Shcherbaki line, various units are writing from the field about our forces being pinned down by FPV drone strikes and artillery. The enemy is trying to isolate our forward units, slowing down the pace of our advance.
By the 18th, fighting continued in the Orekhov Direction and north of Novodanilovka.
The Economic War
‘Sanctions Made Us Stronger’, Lavrov
Sergei Lavrov has said that Russia is not concerned about sanctions being lifted because these have made the Russian economy stronger. Russian is now the world’s 4th largest economy based on Purchasing Power Parity and the sanctions helped Russia achieve this status.
Russia Signs Investment Deal With Qatar
The deal, which will strengthen economic ties between the two countries and boost bilateral cooperation, is worth $2 billions. Technology, healthcare and the extraction of mineral resources are all part of the deal. Putin also met with the Qatari Emir, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and discussed the conflicts in Syria and Gaza, where they are in agreement on Syrian sovereignty and a two state solution in Israel/Palestine.
‘Bring Back Russian Gas’, European CEOs
The CEOs of major European companies are doing what was unthinkable a year ago: they are calling for the import of some Russian gas via Gasprom. This change of heart has been made due to Trump’s trade wars in which the US is turning energy into a bargaining chip in trade negotiations. I doubt whether Kallas and von der Leyen will be impressed by this suggestion.
Tariff Wars
Donald Trump’s ‘Tariff Wars’ do not appear to be going to plan but no one knows what the plan is. The dollar is plunging in value while Black Rock CEO, Larry Fink laments the destabalising effect on the global markets:
This is not a pandemic. This is not a financial crisis. This is something that we’ve created. These tariffs are beyond anything I could have imagined in my 49 years in finance.
Since the end of World War Two, the US has been the world’s stabilizer but now it is the global ‘destabilizer’, he said.
China has raised tariffs on US goods by 125% but will not respond to any future US tariff increases. This brief interview of a Chinese diplomat Victor Gao on X sums up the Chinese attitude and is well worth watching. You can read more at Zero Hedge.
On April 12th, Trump, who responded to the market chaos by pausing the tariff wars for 90 days (excluding China), provided a list of goods, such as smart phones, semi-conductors and computers, that will be exempted from tariffs. This begs the question as to why the Trump team failed to anticipate that it was not in the US’s interests to impose tariffs on these products in the first place? Apple will breathe a sigh of relief because it makes 80% of its iPads and 50% of its Macs in China. You can see the full list of reciprocal tariff exclusions here. Also, b from the MoA and his contributors discuss the matter here.
On the 13th April, China announced that it is halting export of key rare earth minerals to the US according to the Islander. These include minerals such as dysprosium, terbium and neodymium which are used in smartphones, missiles and fighter jets. Zero Hedge reports on the issue here. According to Politico, China will halt the exports of some (unspecified) minerals to the US along with the import of US products such as beef, poultry and LNG. The US is sanctioning other counties who deal with China which, in turn, is selling off US debt and the US is in dire need of investors to purchase its debts.
Ben Norton provides some good and clear economic analysis of the US’s battle with China here (first hour). According to Norton, the Trump Team thought that China would not respond reciprocally to the tariffs and was shocked when it did; hence Trump’s ‘adjustments’. Just as Biden underestimated Russia, so Trump has underestimated China. He also explains that the rapid industrial expansion Trump is hoping for will take a long time and that inflation or even recession could be triggered by Trump’s actions. Furthermore, his poor treatment of the Europeans could drive them into the arms of China while many countries affected by the tariffs could abandon the dollar - accelerating de-dollarisation. It is also possible, according to Norton, that the uncertainty Trump has created will encourage investors to take their money out of the US and will not provide entrepreneurs with the security and predictability required to invest in the factories needed to kick start the economy. Furthermore, Trump’s attempts to undermine BRICS will do nothing but strengthen it.
Trump needs to show economic improvements by the mid-terms in November 2026 (19 months away) or he could lose the House.
During the tariff wars, the ruble has strengthened against the dollar by 38% according to Tass. It is the world’s best performing currency for 2025.
World Politics
Iran-US Talks
The first round of talks between Iran and the US took place in Oman last weekend. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the talks as ‘constructive and promising’. Steve Witkoff represented the Americans. According to the Islander, it is rumoured that sanctions relief, de-escalation of regional tensions and prisoner exchanges were on the agenda along with denuclearisation of the Middle East - which, potentially, places Israel’s nuclear arsenal on the negotiating table. Iran is not willing to discuss its missiles program or a reduction in uranium enrichment, according to some. I would imagine that if Iran offered to have its nuclear industry monitored by IAEA then the US could not object, especially since most of the world would see this as reasonable. The next meeting will be held in Rome on April 19th, according to Sputnik. I should say that Trump rejected the JCPOA deal during his last term because it did not eliminate Iran’s missile system and it didn’t prevent Iran from supporting the Houthis, Hezbollah and others who are part of the ‘axis of resistance’. Alastair Crooke discusses the matter here.
‘There Will Be Consequences’ - Kallas
In Moscow on May 9th Russia and Russians will celebrate the 80th anniversary of their victory over the Nazis. This is the day the Russians saved the Europeans from Nazism. If Russia hadn’t made the blood sacrifice of 26 millions people, Europeans may still be giving Nazi salutes.2 It is an important day for the Russians who paid such a high price for victory and I imagine that the vast majority of Russians will have some connection with those who fought and died. But Kaja Kallas has warned that ‘there will be consequences’ for those who attend the Moscow celebrations from EU candidate countries and any participation by EU members ‘will not be taken lightly’, she warned. She is also banning Russians and Belarussians from attending European commemorations while the Bundestag has also banned Russian and Belarussian ambassadors from their ceremonies.
After the capture of Berlin, Marshall Zhukov told General Rokossovsky: ‘We liberated them, and they will never forgive us for this’. Prophetic words.
In response, Russian Duma speaker, Vyacheslav Volodin wanted Kaja to be handed over to the UN International Court:
A crazy Russophobe has issued an ultimatum not only to EU countries, but also to candidates discussing the issue of joining the EU, demanding that they refrain from visiting our country during the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the Great Victory. Kallas' statement is a disrespect for the memory of those who sacrificed their lives, saving the world from fascism..
Volodin also asked for Kallas to be removed from office.
Robert Fico has said that he will be going to Moscow on May 9th and addressed the following to dear Kaja:
Mrs. Kallas, I would like to remind you that I am the legitimate Prime Minister of Slovakia - a sovereign state. No one can dictate where I can or cannot go. I will travel to Moscow to express my respect and honor the memory of the thousands of Red Army soldiers who died for the liberation of Slovakia.
This is ridiculous: here we have an unelected bureaucrat telling an elected Prime Minister where he is not allowed to go!
Fico also said that: ‘this is 2025, not 1939’ while Maria Zakharova called Kallas’s threats 'Euronazism'. Kallas’s judgements have a similar basis to the Nuremberg Laws in 1930s Germany which were not based on what people do but on who they are - i.e. Jews. Russians are the modern day equivalent to 1930’s German Jews. Laws in Kallas’ own country of Estonia treat Russians as second class citizens and have taken away their voting rights. The laws are therefore similar in nature to the Nuremberg laws.
In Ukraine, there are ‘consequences’ for listening to Russian music. In Nikolaev, a woman was arrested for doing so in her own car.
'There Will be Consequences’ - Balazs Orban
Balazs Orban, who is Viktor Orban’s Political Director but not related to the President, has warned that Ukraine’s entry into the EU would cost the Union $2.8 trillions. It will therefore be opposed. You can read more at Sputnik.
Wacky Westers - Merz
Merz has openly stated that Germany could provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles which will enable them to attack the Kerch Bridge with the help of German technicians. He is being asked to reconsider.
Wacky Westerners - Barrot
French Foreign Minister, Barrot is calling for the US and the EU to destroy Russia’s economy through sanctions. In spite of the fact that 16 EU sanction packages have only made Russia stronger and ignoring the fact that the US and Russia are talking about future trade he is still talking about destroying Russia - as per instructions from the globalists who have still not given up on defeating Trump and Russia.
Wise Westerners - Luc Ferry
Former French minister Luc Ferry leaked a truth narrative in which he conceded that Ukraine started this was against Russian speaking people in the Donbass, leaving 15,000 civilians dead. Many sources have estimated such figures.
Teen Killed Parents, Plotted to Kill Trump
Nikita Casap, a 17 year old from Wisconsin has been accused of killing his parents and of plotting to assassinate Donald Trump. Casap planned to blame the killing on the Russians and flee to Ukraine where he thought he would be able to live freely. It appears that his mother’s family came from Ukraine: the surname is Ukrainian. You can read more here.
Casap was not acting alone, according to Margarita Simonyan (RT):
FBI records show he was in contact with Ukrainians, discussing how to carry out the attack and frame it as a Russian operation. He also asked how soon he could flee to Ukraine afterward — and whether he'd be able to have a normal life there.
Thanks to a subscriber who drew my attention to this story.
Protests
Belgrade
Tens of thousands of people demonstrated in Belgrade over the weekend in support of President Vucic. ‘We will not give up, Serbia’, they chanted.
Paris
Thousands gathered in Paris over the weekend to protest what they called the ‘unravelling of justice’. Protesters, who were not all ‘right wingers’, noted the moral inconsistency between the jailing of Marine Le Pen, for allegedly misusing EU funds, and allowing genocidal maniac Benjamin Netanyahu, accused of war crimes by the ICC, to fly over French airspace. France claims to uphold international law, so Macron tells us, but not where Israel is involved, so it seems.
Sanity Comes To Britain - At Last
I have been opposing Woke (what used to be called Political Correctness) since my University days back in 1991. I have certainly fallen foul of it but that’s another story. The fightback against Woke began many years ago and Trump has played his part. But on the 16th April, a day that will forever live in the memory of anti-Wokists, the Supreme Court of the UK ruled that a transgender woman is not a woman. The term ‘woman’ and ‘sex’ refer to biological women and biological sex, the court noted. Anyone who has studied sociology will know the difference between biological sex and sociological gender. The Wokists tried to conflate the two but they have not succeeded in the UK where sanity has prevailed. The campaigning of three tenacious Scottish women is responsible for this. You can read more about the story at Zero Hedge.
The emerging Multi-Polar World
Lavrov - Interview - Antaly Diplomatic Forum
‘Multipolarity doesn’t exclude the West, it embraces everybody’, Lavrov said. Moreover, he argued: ‘The different powers in the world should seek to cooperate with each other when their interests coincide but when they do not, it is their responsibility to ensure that these differences do not lead to conflict’. He also said that no country’s security should be sacrificed in order for another country to obtain security. This is what happened in Ukraine. Lavrov’s interview (on X) would be of great benefit to those who want some diplomatic background to the current state of affairs in Ukraine and the world.
It seems that this week has been less tense but still very busy. Many thanks for your views, your subscriptions/follows, your shares, restacks, likes and comments. Have a good week and Happy Easter to those who celebrate it - best Rob.
Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.
i.e. to protect the ‘separatists’ in the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics who had broken from Ukraine and had been under attack since 2014.
If the Russians had been defeated D-Day in Normandy could never have happened.
I think that Brian Berletic is closest to the mark in analysing Trump. He is just a variation of US Foreign Policy to try and maintain global dominance.
Thanks for the update Rob and Happy Easter.
Interesting comments by Rubio about the US walking away from the Ukraine war soon if peace is not agreed.
I wonder who the comments were aimed at?
I also wonder how the US delegation faired with the Euro nazi sympathisers at the recent meeting.
Zelensky keeps coming up with his updates about Chinese involvement and the fact that Ukraine will not give up land.
I don't want to sound too despondent but there never was a real exit strategy from any of the players.
Is the US truly giving up on poking the bear? Or backing off, perhaps, as it's patsy, Germany, wants to double down on stupid and give Taurus missiles to the Ukro-nationalists.
Who, as Simplicus highlighted are in the process of forming another nazi army corps to overrule their serfs whilst avoiding prolonged fighting on the front lines.
It also seems like the media in the US is being (a little) more truthful when reporting on the Russo/Ukraine war.
What with CBS stating the 100,000 dead Ukraine soldiers which the coke king denied saying afterwards.
Odd times-with Kellogg also following the Western propaganda hit on the Russians after the 117th brigade ceremony was attacked in Sumy.
Our so called leaders make the situation more dangerous week by week.