Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update

25th April 2025

Northern lights in Russia

Pope Francis died over Easter at 88 years old after a long illness from which he appeared to have been recovering. He was the only global leader to condemn NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine and the genocide in Gaza. He also pointed out that NATO’s expansion caused the war and he resisted efforts to persuade him to break off relations with the Russian Orthodox Church.

Vladimir Putin, who called his own Easter Ceasefire, also praised Pope Francis.¹ Away from the Vatican, this week has been characterised by some shuttle diplomacy, lots of talks and a tariff war that is not working out well for Donald J - or so it seems (see below). I am not convinced that the Trump Team is sincere about wanting to end the war in Ukraine or preventing a war with Iran. Those who are optimistic in this regard should watch or read Brian Berletic - see US-Iran Talks below. But the partnership between Russia, Iran and China, which the US has always tried to avoid, is strengthening.

In 1997, Joe Biden scoffed at the idea that Russia could form an alliance with China and Iran, as you can see here, hinting that the latter two countries were too weak. What the intellectually challenged idiot Biden mocked, even at that time, was a possibility that a more educated and less arrogant politician would have appreciated. But Iran, Russia and China are having the last laugh as Biden and Trump have succeeded in bringing them closer together.

According to this report, Israel is preparing to attack Iran independently of the US to destroy its nuclear apparatus. Would Trump allow this, you may ask. Last week I pointed out that some people believe that Trump dislikes/distrusts Netanyahu and the fact that the US is negotiating separately with Iran could be a sign of the distrust. Apparently HAMAS has also been contacted by the US separately from Bibi. According to Mahmood OD, an inside US source close to him is confirming that Trump does indeed distrust Netanyahu due to the way he has handled the situation in the ME. The source also claims that Netanyahu has no intention of attacking Iran and that he is likely to fall in the October elections if not before. I think that the interactions between Trump and the Israeli PM may show signs that Trump is not happy with Bibi.

According to Mohammad Marandi, speaking here, Iran has not been vilified, threatened and sanctioned because it may produce nuclear weapons some time in the future: after all IAEA inspections could guard against this - rather, Iran is being attacked because it opposes Israel and is supporting the resistance. The claims about nuclear fears, Iran’s alleged support for terrorism and poor human rights record is just smoke and mirrors. This is all about Israel being permitted to do what it wants. But maybe Trump has set limits to his support for Bibi. A source close to Larry Johnson claims that in private Trump has said that he doesn’t want war with Iran as Larry discusses at this point here. This does not fit with Trump’s bellicosity which could simply be part of what he believes to be good negotiating practice. Time will tell. People will write books about Trump’s psychology with the benefit of a hindsight that is not available to us. I have to say that Trump baffles me. I am sceptical about the Donald but I can’t claim to know what the hell is going on.

In the Middle East, the genocide continues in Gaza while the axis of resistance responds. Inexperienced Israeli soldiers are being ambushed amid the city ruins while the Houthis continue to launch strikes towards Israel and the US fleets. They have recently destroyed their 20th ‘Reaper Drone’ while suffering civilian casualties of their own courtesy of Donald J. The Israelis have now proposed a new more humane version of ethnic cleansing to the Gazans offering them:

$5,000, housing, jobs, and a salary to leave the enclave, with resettlement options in France, Greece, or Malaysia. But in return, they must give up their Palestinian identity, land, and right of return — AFP.

This is a divide and rule tactic which some Palestinians may find attractive.

Conflict between different groups continues in Syria and clashes have broken out on the Syrian-Lebanese border.

In Ukraine, Zelensky has extended martial law until August 6th which means that elections cannot be called before then. In an interview, Zelensky made it clear that he wants an unconditional ceasefire first followed by negotiations. He is backed by the globalist Europeans on this. Given the fact that he hates all Russians, his position as a negotiator is problematic. Zelensky criticised Putin for refusing to extend the Easter Ceasefire beyond midnight on Easter Sunday, neglecting to say that his forces did not conform to the energy ceasefire neither did they conform to the Easter ceasefire with nearly 5,000 violations including the burning of churches in Belgorod.

Let’s be clear, as you probably know, Ukraine does not want to end the war because it has not lost hope that Trump will be forced to change policies. Donald has not pulled the plug yet - some say he never will - but Zelensky has nowhere else to turn, really. I doubt that he would be stupid enough to place his hopes on a disunited and impoverished Europe to help him out - for all the ranting by the irrelevants. These creatures have adopted a survival posture by puffing themselves up or making lots of noise but we all know that they are doing so because they are weak and vulnerable.

Under the circumstances Zelensky is situated between a rather jagged rock and the proverbial hard place. Zelensky also has personal problems, apparently. Recently, his wife was allegedly caught trying to escape Ukraine - yet she visited South Africa with Zelensky this week. Zelensky remains deluded or maybe he simply appreciates that making concessions would be suicidal.

On the battlefronts, Kursk has almost been cleared and Russian breakthroughs are possible in Porkrovsk, Toretsk and Kupyansk Directions - though progress is painfully slow.

Talks between the Ukrainians, Americans and European are not going well (see below) and an apparent split between hawks and doves in the Trump team are complicating talks with Iran (see below).

Tensions are increasing between India and Pakistan after a terrorist attack in Kashmir. Pakistan has denied any involvement but India has cut off some water supplies to Pakistan which could be considered an act of war. You can read more at Zero Hedge.

Finally, news is coming in that Russian Major General, Yaroslav Moskalik was killed by a car bomb in Moscow.

We will just have to wait and hope that things will improve - everywhere.

Putin Celebrates Easter

The great feast of Easter brings us love and hope, faith in goodness and justice, and unites us around enduring spiritual and moral ideals. During these festive days, I would like to note with deep appreciation that today, as throughout history, the Russian Orthodox Church and other Christian denominations play an important and inspiring role in strengthening social accord and mutual understanding, in educating the younger generations, and in upholding family values. Vladimir Putin.

Italy Will Not Arrest Putin - If He Attends Pope’s Funeral

Some humanity and common sense is on display here from an Italian - possibly Meloni. But it may be too risky for him to attend. The ICC warrant for his arrest is the least of his problems. Lots of people want him dead.

Zapad Group Receive Sacraments

The ceremony took place in a ‘trench church’ close to the front.

Easter Ceasefire

Putin announced a 30 hour Easter Ceasefire which ran from 18.00 hours (Moscow Time) on April 19th until 00.00 (midnight) on the 21st April. Some believe that Putin wanted to demonstrate that he is in favour of a ceasefire in principle whereas Ukraine breaks ceasefires in which they are invited to participate. The Ukrainians were asked to join in. Putin could also be demonstrating that Russia is in charge of the situation. I can’t help thinking that there could be some psychology in this, to be cynical for a change. Civilians and soldiers alike will get a taste of peace and may be unenthusiastic about a resumption of hostilities. Anyway, a day or two when no one is being killed is welcome - especially at Easter among religious people. Zelensky eventually agreed with the ceasefire but some of his forces ignored it (see below).

Where there is faith, there is victory

So, the Ukrainians did not conform to the ceasefire (surprise, surprise) and given the vast amount of ceasefire violations (see below), Putin will be able to tell Trump and his team that their idea of a 30 day ceasefire while Zelensky and his team are still in place is futile. Since Zelensky agreed to the ceasefire this shows that he can’t be trusted or has no control over his army which would make any future ceasefire problematic

Mark Sleboda talks about the impossibility of a peace deal, yet alone a 30 day ceasefire in a recent discussion with Nima (at this point in the vid). In his interview he didn’t know about the Easter ceasefire violations.

Medvedev - Russia Will Figure it Out Faster

Marc Rubio has said that the US will pull out of talks if no progress is made and Medvedev is quite happy with this because he knows the Russian military will win the conflict soon. But we should not lose sight of the fact that even though the US has assumed the role of negotiator it is actually a participant. But it is not clear whether ‘pulling out’ means abandoning both roles. Abandoning the latter role would involve the halting of military supplies, bringing US technical advisers home and depriving Ukraine of US intelligence. It remains to be seen whether this will be done. If it is not done then the US is still a participant. Brian Berletic talks about the issues in this article.

Energy Ceasefire Ends

The energy ceasefire which the Ukrainians never adhered to has now ended after 30 days.

London Talks and Trump’s Peace Plan

David Lammy chaired the downgraded talks

Talks in London were scheduled to be conducted on April 23rd between representatives and Foreign Ministers from Kiev, the UK, France and Germany to discuss the continuation of military support for Ukraine. Zelensky did not attend. The US was due to be represented by Kellogg but Rubio and Witkoff were also expected to attend. The European delegation had insisted that any settlement would provide Ukraine with security guarantees and post war reconstruction paid for in part by Russia’s frozen assets. Some time before the meeting the Ukrainians and the Europeans were acquainted with Trump’s peace plan. Whereas the Europeans and the Ukrainians were due to discuss proposals for a 30 day ceasefire Rubio and Witkoff wanted Trump’s peace plan to be discussed.

Trump’s Peace Plan

The Trump Team wants the conflict frozen along the current front lines in return for a partial lifting of sanctions and international recognition that Crimea is de jure part of Russia. Some reports claim that the deal would also give Russia de facto (implied) control of the lands it currently occupies but neither Zelensky nor Kallas mention this. Under the deal, the US would be given temporary control of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant. The mineral deal was also included in the plan along with a new and cooperative relationship between Russia and the US with a complete lifting of sanctions on Russia. Direct talks between Ukraine and Russia were expected to follow.

On hearing about the deal, Kaja Kallas said that the European Union will never accept that Crimea is part of Russia and it will not lift sanctions. Zelensky was also quick to point out that Ukraine will never give up Crimea because the constitution does not permit this. He also insists that Ukraine be allowed to join NATO since the Trump deal offers him no security guarantees. This man does not want peace. Emmanuel Macron also demanded that Ukraine’s ‘territorial integrity’ be respected as part of the peace deal. It appears that Rubio and Witkoff, on hearing these responses decided to stay away - though officially it was claimed that both men were too busy (according to RT). In consequence, according to this report, the meeting was downgraded. Talks continued between minor officials but Kellogg was also present. You can read more at Tass. Some will say that all of this is simply theatre.

The legacy media is claiming that Putin had accepted the idea of a conflict freeze along the current lines even though this would leave approximately 50% of Kherson and Zaporozhye in Ukrainian hands. I would be very surprised if this were true - though it could be a tactical negotiating move. Dmitry Peskov warned against accepting fake news, advising people to listen only to official Russian sources. Even if such concessions were made I would imagine that further down the line Russia would ask for referenda in these oblasts and others. I would be surprised if Russia agreed to hand over the Zaporozhye NPP to the Americans but according to Pravda, Putin has accepted Trump’s peace plan even though it says nothing about demilitarisation, denazification or a security architecture involving the whole of Europe - which Putin has been calling for. But Putin has agreed to the deal in the knowledge that Zelensky and the Europeans will not touch it. He also does so in the knowledge that it forms the basis for negotiations from which Russia could obtain other concessions.

But Dmitry Peskov has said that if Ukraine pulls out of Donetsk (where it holds only a small amount of land); Zaporozhye; Luhansk and Kherson the conflict would end instantly - according to the War Chronicle. Since Zelensky does not want to give up Crimea this is unlikely. Donald J was critical of Zelensky’s position on Crimea: either he can have ‘peace or fight for another 3 years before losing the whole country'. Referring to Zelensky’s request for Russian concessions, Trump said that not taking the whole country would be a significant Russian concession!

You can read more at the Telegraph.

Putin Ratifies Iran Deal

On April 21st, Putin ratified the partnership treaty with Iran signed by Iran’s President Pezeshkian back in January. This is a long term strategic partnership.

According to Tass, the deal:

…enshrines the status of Russia and Iran as strategic partners and covers all the spheres, including defense, combating terrorism, energy, finance, transport, industry, agriculture, science, culture and technologies.

I have written previously about the defence aspect of the treaty which does not oblige either side to support the other with ‘boots on the ground’ involvement in the event of an attack by a third party such as the US. But it does oblige either side to render support short of this in the event of an attack.

Russia-Oman Sign Agreement

This week, Vladimir Putin met with the Sultan of Oman, Haitham bin Taraq Al Said, to sign an agreement which abandons visa requirements from both countries. They also made a commitment to extend and strengthen bilateral ties and made it clear that they want an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the immediate withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza/occupied territories and a just settlement. Oman has played a key role as a mediator in recent negotiations between Iran and the US and is known for its pragmatic, neutral and peaceful policies.

Prisoner Exchange

The Russians and Ukrainians exchanged 246 prisoners which made 492 men very happy at Easter.

Body Exchange

On April 18th, the Russians gave the Ukrainians 909 bodies in exchange for 41 of their fallen comrades. A similar ratio of exchange (909 for 43) occurred on March 28th 2025. However, this is not necessarily indicative of disproportionate losses because the Ukrainians are notoriously poor at collecting their battle dead and let the Russians do it for them.

Melnik Asks Germany for 30% of its Armour and Jets

Ukraine’s envoy to the UN, Andrey Melnik, has asked Germany to donate 30% of its armour and jets to Ukraine as a warning to the Russians. This would involve 45 Typhoons; 30 Tornados; 100 Leopard 2s; 115 Puma IFVs; 130 Marder IFVs and 150 long range Taurus Cruise missiles. You can read more at Pravda. I wonder whether he is asking for all this as a donation or is he offering to pay?

Ukraine Unhappiest Country

The latest ‘World Happiness Report’ indicates that Ukraine is the unhappiest country in Europe with a rating of 4.7 out of ten according to a Ukrainian source. Albania was second with 5.4. The rating was complied by:

….taking into account such criteria as GDP per capita, healthy life expectancy, level of social support, freedom to make life decisions, manifestation of generosity and level of perception of corruption.

Given the operations of the TCC and the dire situation on the fronts it is surprising that the rating is so high!

Vladimir Ammo Depot on Fire

According to the War Chronicle:

In the village of Barsovo, Vladimir region, a fire is blazing at the 51st arsenal of the GRAU of the Ministry of Defense of Russia. The causes of the fire are not officially reported. In the Kirzhach district, Barsovo, Mirny, Gribanovo, Khrapki, Pershino, the village and the village of Dubki are being evacuated.

An investigation is under way.

Ukraine Terrorist Attacks

Ukrainian Nazi drone shot down by Russian air defences.

18th/19th April

Overnight, a drone attack on a car in Belgorod injured the civilian who was driving it.

19th/20th April

Ukraine violated the ceasefire and committed a terrorist attack against Belgorod region where two children and a woman were injured by drone attack.

20th/21st April

Overnight, an artillery strike injured a civilian in Gorlovka (DPR).

21st/22nd April

Overnight, a number of drones were destroyed over Belgorod where a man and a woman were injured by drone drops. In Gorlovka (DPR) a man was killed when a device exploded in a cemetery where a man was injured by a kamikaze drone attack. Two drones were destroyed over Oryol.

22nd/23rd April

The Ukrainians are methodically burning down houses in the border villages of Bryansk. A total of 29 homes have been destroyed. Belgorod suffered drone attacks on houses and vehicles which injured nine and killed one. In Kherson, a man was injured by drone attack while in the DPR a man and a woman were injured by unexploded ordnance while five more were injured by cluster artillery. Tula also came under drone attack along with Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol and Kaluga.

23rd/24th April

Overnight, 8 drones were destroyed over Voronezh; 10 over Kursk; 10 over Belgorod; 4 over Bryansk; 4 over Lipetsk; 4 over Nizhny Novgorod and 2 over Moscow. Tatarstan was also attacked. In Bryansk, a driver was injured when a drone hit his minibus while in Kursk a man was injured by drone attack. In Belgorod, two men were injured and another died from artillery strikes while an explosive object killed another and a drone attack on a private house injured another. In Lisichansk, two children were seriously wounded by missile strikes while two adults suffered slight injuries.

24th/25th April

Overnight, 4 drones were shot down over Belgorod where one woman was killed and another injured by drone attack. 2 drones were destroyed over Kursk; 2 over Nizhny Novgorod and 1 over Ivanovo.

Ukrainian Ceasefire Violations

At first, Zelensky rejected Putin’s offer of a 30 hour ceasefire but then accepted it only for many in his armed forces to ignore it. By Sunday afternoon, the Ukrainians had violated the ceasefire 1,300 times according to Sputnik.

19th/20th April

The ceasefire has been observed by the Ukrainian side generally but Kherson suffered drone and mortar attacks in Alyoshki; kamizaze drone strikes in Golaya Pristan and drone drops in Kakhovka.

Shebekino in Belgorod was shelled along with the LPR; Pokrovsk; Kursk and Zaprorozhye. Donetsk was also targeted.

On the 20th April the Russian MoD published the following report:

Ukrainian units fired at our troops' positions 444 times with guns and mortars, carried out 900 strikes with quadcopter-type unmanned aerial vehicles and dropped various munitions, including 12 shellings, 33 UAV strikes and 7 munition drops in the border areas of the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions. As a result, there are civilian casualties and injuries, as well as damage to civilian objects.

Maria Zakharova pointed out that the Ukrainians had been assisted by the Americans to use HIMARS to violate the ceasefire. Altogether, 4,900 violations of the ceasefire were recorded according to Sputnik.

The Sea War

21st/22nd April

Overnight, five aircraft type drones were destroyed over Crimea while Neptune missiles were destroyed over the Black Sea. The Kerch bridge was temporarily closed to traffic as a precaution.

22nd/23rd April

Overnight, one drone was shot down over Crimea.

23rd/24th April

Overnight, 45 drones were shot down over Crimea and 3 over the Black Sea.

24th/25th April

Overnight, 59 drones were destroyed over Crimea and 11 over the Black Sea.

The Air War (Map)

Russian Iskanders

Russian Missile/Drone Attacks

18th/19th April

Overnight, an attack on Sumy appears to have caused outages which could mean that the Russians have abandoned the ‘energy’ ceasefire after the 30 day period expired yesterday. Tartarbunary in Odessa was also attacked with up to 7 ballistic missiles.

21st April

Early in the morning, Geraniums were reported over Cherkasy; Nikolaev; Chuhuiv; Pavlograd and Odessa. Dnepropetrovsk, Kiev, Kharkov and Sumy also suffered Geranium attacks.

21st/22nd April

Overnight, at least 30 Geraniums destroyed targets in the industrial zone of Odessa. According to a Ukrainian source, Ukrainian air defences in Odessa were practically non-existent. Explosions have also been reported over Dnepropetrovsk and Kiev. In the afternoon 12 Geraniums were reported over Kharkov.

22nd/23rd April

According to the War Chronicle:

Geraniums, both new and old, worked all night. Explosions continued near Odesa, in the Kyiv region - the Brovary area. In Poltava, substations were on fire, including after arrivals. In the morning, explosions began in the Kirovohrad and Zaporizhzhia regions. Since the daytime strikes, an industrial facility has been on fire in Kharkiv.

A new type of Geranium is being used which has a more powerful engine than the old type. Note that electricity infrastructure is being targeted.

23rd/24th April

Overnight, Kiev suffered a massive missile/drone attack. Air raid warnings were sounded throughout the country according to Ukrainian media. Zaporozhye; Kharkov; Dnepropetrovsk and Pavlograd were also attacked. A warehouse and production facility near the Levada Railway Station in Kharkov was hit by Iskanders. A railway station in Kiev was also hit. The attack, which was the largest for some time, involved 70 missiles of various types and 145 Shahed-type drones.

24th/25th April

Overnight, Geraniums attacked Kharkiv; Pavlograd; Dnepropetrovsk; Sumy and Kiev.

Ukrainian Missile/Drone Attacks

18th/19th April

In Belgorod, on the 18th April, the Ukrainians attacked a high voltage electricity line and a low pressure gas main. In Bryansk, drones hit high voltage lines at different locations along with 2 electricity sub stations. In Donetsk another high voltage line was damaged and in Kherson another sub station was hit.

The Ground War

Russian MoD Reports - Ukrainian Losses - Excludes Kursk

w/e 4th April 2025 9,920 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 457

w/e 11th April 2025 10,635 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 552.

w/e 18th April 2025 10,040 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 638.

w/e 25th April 2025 8760 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 526.

Losses are lower due to the 30 hour ceasefire.

In January, casualties were around 13,000 per week and on w/e November 1st 2024 17,000 casualties were reported.

Kursk

The Fronts

Coloured maps by Mikhail Popov c/o Marat Khairullin

Front Line Cats

We had a semi-feral cat like this called ‘Blackie’

Belgorod

According to the Majors:

…the enemy again tried to break through to the territory of the Krasnoyarsk district of the Belgorod region. All enemy assault groups were destroyed.

Kursk-Sumy

According to Marat Khairullin:

In the Kursk direction, following the liberation of the settlement of Oleshnya by the Russian Armed Forces….our army continues to strike Ukrainian militants in the area. Several counterattack attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), which maintain a presence in the adjacent forest plantations, have been repelled. In the area of Gornal (“Hornal” on the map)—the only Russian settlement under enemy control (though no longer fully)—the Russian Armed Forces have concentrated an artillery "fist," as the AFU retains a tactical advantage due to the terrain. Currently, the former enemy fortified area on the territory of the St. Nicholas Belogorsky Monastery is under our military’s control as seen from the air….In Sumy Oblast, Russian troops are expanding control zones around the settlements of Veselovka, Zhuravka, and Basovka, with heightened attention to disrupting enemy logistics.

Kupyansk

Liman

According to Marat Khairullin:

In the Liman direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing. In the area of Novomikhailovka, which is under our full control, battles are underway for forest plantations where the enemy has fortified bunkers.

In Novoye, our military controls the eastern part of the settlement, with fighting now reaching the center. Russian units are also expanding control in the forest belts south of Novoye, applying pressure on its western flank from two directions.

Chasiv Yar - Toretsk

According to Khairullin:

In the Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) direction, Russian units are advancing northward along the road to Konstantinovka (Константиовка), aiming to reach a line of cascading ponds stretching from the Kleban-Byk Reservoir to the settlement of Dachnoe. This would sever enemy logistics running from Konstantinovka through a series of settlements along the railway, cutting off supply routes to Petrovka/Novospasskoye, Shcherbinovka, Katerinovka, and Kleban-Byk, thereby weakening enemy defenses in the area.

Russian forces are also advancing toward Konstantinovka west of the railway, approaching Petrovka/Novospasskoye from the south. This creates conditions for enveloping the Petrovka-Shcherbinovka fortified area from the west and subsequent advances toward Romanovka.

Toretsk-Gorlovka

According to the Two Majors:

In the Konstantinovsky direction, the Russian Army continues to develop the offensive southwest of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk). On the western outskirts of Nelepovka, the Russian Armed Forces "closed a pocket" up to 1.7 km wide. Control over Sukha Balka has been confirmed. As a result of long, heavy fighting, assault units of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division liberated Tarasovka, continuing the offensive.

Pokrovsk - Andreevka

According to Marat Khairullin:

On the South Donetsk axis, Russian units continue their successful offensive. Assault operations are underway on the outskirts of Kotlyarovka, while the Russian Defense Ministry announced the liberation of Bogdanovka by the "South" group of forces.

East of Pokrovsk

West of Prokrovsk

Zaporozhye

The Russians continue to storm Ukrainian positions but the situations remains ‘difficult’ as the UAF employs many drones.

The Economic War

China Stops US LNG

China has halted the import of US LNG completely because the tariff imposed has made it too expensive - according to RT. China is now set to ramp up imports of Russian LNG. They have also cancelled orders for Boeing jets.

Chinese Exports to US

Negotiating With a Tiger For Its Skin - Only Gets You Eaten

China’s indignant, annoyed and frustrated response to Trump’s tariffs and Vance’s insults probably surprised the Trump Team who may have expected a more submissive response. But Trump’s Troopers don’t appear to realise that the US needs China much more than China needs the US (see above chart). In fact, China appears to be fast running out of patience with the US ‘diplomats’ whom they must view as childish rank amateurs employing bullying playground tactics in the world of adults - and the Orange Man himself is the biggest culprit.

But the Chinese have been giving Trump one and two fingered salutes because they know that they hold all the cards. If you threaten our very skin, you will be eaten, they have warned via a spokesman for the Chinese Commerce Ministry: ‘Seeking exemptions by harming the interests of others… is like negotiating with a tiger for its skin. In the end, it leads to a lose-lose’. They know that ‘Appeasement will not bring peace, and compromise will not earn respect’. So Donald is unlikely to get any change out of the Chinese and maybe it will take some time for him to realise that the world has moved on since gunslingers fought it out in Western saloons.

According to the Islander, one Chinese analyst said:

Nobody wants to pick a side, but the U.S. is forcing them to. And most of them aren’t going to choose Washington.

In the new global game, China’s not the tiger on the hill. It is the hill.

Trump appears to have recognised the folly of his original tariff hike in China when he said:

145% is very high, and it won't be that high. It will come down substantially. It will not be zero. It used to be zero.

So investors still have no certainty in the tariff wars.

According to this source, Trump may reduce tariff on China to 50-65% - in order ‘to ease tensions’. If I were China, I would keep their sanctions at 125% just to be awkward.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wan Yi, in a joint press conference with his Iranian counterpart, said that the US is ‘abusing tariffs, losing global support and isolating itself'. Ouch!

Iranian FM, Abbas Araghchi said:

Happy to visit China again. Good friends should visit each other often. No matter the global changes, Iran sees China as a trusted partner.

I think the message being sent is: ‘No, China will not take kindly to an attack on our Iranian pals’. But let’s face it, anyone who attempts to persuade Trump to abandon this venture is acting in US interests. Iran has a pandora’s box that may tempt fools but the wise will never open it.

Trump claims that he is in talks with China but the Chinese FM has denied this as you can read here.

Ukrainian Debt Default

Shit - is that all we have left?

According to the Financial Times:

Ukraine failed to agree with investors on debt restructuring in the amount of 2.6 billion dollars

If Kiev is unable to do this by May, the country will be forced to declare default on payment of about $600 million.

European Thieves Don’t Want Sanctions Lifted

The Europeans are opposed to the lifting of sanctions on Russia because they would then have to repay the money they stole from its frozen funds in order to provide Ukraine with a loan. The EU and the US each owe Russia €20 billion but some G7 members would also be required to return stolen funds.

World Politics

Romania - Election Annulment Overturned

Some sanity at last.

The appeals court in Romania has overturned a decision by the Constitutional Court to annul last year’s Presidential Election which was won clearly by Calin Georgescu. Let’s hope he gets another chance at gaining power.

Sweden - April 20th

April 20th was Adolf Hitler’s birthday. Many Swedes supported the Nazis. It is shocking to see swastikas displayed in public like this.

Wacky Westerners - Merz

Was that OK? I wanted to sound tough but fair.

In a fit of historical blindness Germany’s future Chancellor Friedrich Merz said: "Germany will take responsibility again - in Europe and in the world. Not loudly, but reliably. Not arrogantly, but in a spirit of partnership"

Zakharova replied: “Again” - is this a repetition of which historical era exactly, I would like to clarify?

Look what happened when Germany last ‘took responsibility’ in Europe and the world.

Wise Westerners - Caldwell

Dan Caldwell, a veteran of the Iraq war, was dismissed from his position as senior adviser to Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth on suspicion of being involved in ‘leaks’ regarding the Panama Canal. However, Caldwell has told Tucker Carlson that he was sacked due to his opposition to war with Iran and for pointing out the ‘stupidity’ of US foreign policy which is bringing Russia, China and Iran closer together. He warned that a war with Iran would be incredibly costly in terms of dollars and in terms of the lives of Americans, Iraqis, Saudis, Iranians and Israelis. So it seems that there is some sanity in the White House but unfortunately insanity prevails for now.

UN To Investigate Moldovan Bishop’s Arrest

Bishop Markell

According to RT:

Bishop Marchel [Markell], a senior cleric with the Moldovan Orthodox Church, was scheduled to attend the Holy Fire ceremony at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem. However, he told TASS on Thursday that Moldovan police had stopped him and two clerics at the airport, subjected them to searches, and detained them until 30 minutes after their plane had departed.

Leader of the Moldovan opposition, Igor Dodon, criticised Sandu’s government calling the harassment of the Bishop ‘an act of terror’ which is an attack on the Moldovan Orthodox Church. The Russian Orthodox Church has condemned the action which is an attack on Orthodoxy. For some time Maia Sandu’s government has been pressing the Church to align with the Romanian Orthodox Church rather than its Russian equivalent. So this is yet another attack on Russia.

The UN is investigating.

Iran-US Talks

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with Putin and Lavrov last Thursday and Friday, he met with Witkoff on Saturday and is then due to visit China. It seems that Russia and China have muscled themselves in on the Iranian nuclear talks and there is not a lot the US can do about it - or so it appears. You can read more at Sputnik. But Israel has been elbowed out of the talks, or so it seems.

According to this report, the talks in Rome on the 19th April agreed principles and goals for a future nuclear agreement ahead of a meeting in Oman on the 26th April which will discuss technical details (see statement above). But a minor meeting was also convened on April 23rd. Sputnik reports that ahead of the talks Iran had agreed to reduce enrichment to 3.67%: the level set by the Obama administration in 2015 but it will not abandon its nuclear energy program. You can read more at Zero Hedge.

In an interview, Araghchi said that Iran and the US had found common ground in acknowledging ‘the right to peaceful development’. He also said:

The final document should guarantee Iran's release from its intentions to create nuclear weapons and the complete lifting of sanctions while preserving Tehran's right to develop peaceful nuclear energy…So far the Americans have not raised any issues unrelated to the nuclear problem. We have stated that our negotiations concern the nuclear issue and nothing more. We will not accept any other issues,

However, following the meeting there was disagreement among the Trump Team with Mike Walz and Marco Rubio insisting that Iran is currently weak providing a window of opportunity to strike at its nuclear facilities if it doesn’t agree to halt enrichment altogether. Following his meeting with Araghchi, Witkoff appeared happy for Iran to reduce the enrichment level but later he began to sing from the Hawk’s hymn sheet by insisting on a total halt to enrichment - which the Iranians will never agree to. Araghchi has been very busy diplomatically with visits to Beijing and Moscow while the Russia-Iran treaty has now been ratified (see above).

Many on the Iranian side are sceptical about a deal and don’t trust the Americans. Brian Berletic doesn’t trust the Americans either and claims that the ‘negotiations’ are simply theatre which will eventually lead to a breakdown of talks for which Iran will be blamed and a strike on its peaceful nuclear program justified. This plan was set out in a US policy paper from 2009² which Brian talks about here. He believes that the US’s policy is to keep Russia overstretched so that it ‘can’t put out all the fires’. Therefore, peace talks on Ukraine are simply for show and an attack on Iran is inevitable. If you had started to become optimistic Brian Berletic always has a cure. Still, an attack on Iran could be suicidal for Israel and very damaging for the US.

Ground Invasion of Iran Almost Impossible

Most of Iran’s landmass is covered with mountains and deserts (Dasht-e Kavir and Dascht-e Lut). The blue line running north-south represents the Eastern Mountains bordering Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Yousef Fares

I have been following Fares’s Telegram channel for a while. He is a great journalist with a bit of the poet about him. This may interest some.

https://t.me/youseffares19/73837

The emerging Multi-Polar World

Globalism Over - Lord Skidelsky

British Lord and economist Robert Skidelsky has said that sanctions and tariffs have created a new global order which represents a departure from globalism. The world is being divided into three camps, he claimed, similar to the divisions between NATO, the Warsaw Pact and the Non-Aligned Movements during the cold war. But today the divisions are between those who imposes sanctions, those upon whom sanctions are imposed and the countries in between.

It’s been a week in which one has been allowed to take a breather - relatively. Many thanks for your views, subscriptions, shares, follows, pledges, restacks, likes and comments. Have a good week - best Rob.

Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.

1. The Pope had a darker side which has been revealed to me by some subscribers in the comments section.

2. ‘Which path to Persia’ - 2009.