Dec 3, 2023·edited Dec 3, 2023Liked by Dr. Rob Campbell
Response to The Busker's "Israel-Palestine: An Analysis by Alastair Crooke"
" this could have provided the trigger for the implementation of a Hamas plan that had been in place for some time. It is also possible that the provocation was intended to trigger Hamas’s plan - who knows."
Very well explained. This is precisely where everyone except Crooke falls down in their analysis. Everyone talks about it being a "Hamas trap" for Israel whereas it is also an "Israeli trap" for the Resistance. In other words, both sides used the Al-Agsa provocation as a means of furthering their agendas. Hamas used it to get the Palestinian issue back on the front burner while the Zionists used it to get both an opportunity to expunge the Palestinians as well as get the US to take care of Hezbollah and Iran for them. The latter goal has not yet been achieved because Iran has wisely stayed its hand and Hezbollah is using a slow escalation dominance capability to keep the war under control until it is determined whether Israel even has the ability to "crush Hamas".
People tend to view everything as binary: it's either this or that. Most situations are more complex than that, and usually both and even multiple circumstances have some validity and effect on the situation.
People also talk about how the US is "worried" about the war expanding. As usual, there is not one non-binary 'US" in this. The neocon crazies almost certainly coordinated this with, or at least fully support, Netanyahu and his crazies with an intent to attack Hezbollah and Iran at some point. The question is whether there is push back from the Pentagon or elsewhere. Some in the Pentagon no doubt remember the Marine barracks bombing In Beirut in 1983 which killed 241 US military, mostly Marines. Some in the Pentagon may want to avoid a repeat, but others may want payback for that.
The real problem, as always, is that the neocons control Biden, and all these people, including most of the military leaders in the Pentagon,as Andrei Martyanov continually repeats, have zero knowledge of how limited their military options are and what the consequences might be of expanding the conflict. And the ones who do understand that do not have the direct ear of the White House.
It's exactly the same situation as the Ukraine debacle. Anyone who understood the military balance between Russia and Ukraine, which was presented in every major Western media before that conflict started, would have instantly understood that Ukraine could not possibly defeat Russia. But the majority of the leaders in the West, including supposed military and intelligence leaders, did NOT so understand the situation, because they are incompetent, as Martyanov has proven over and over.
So as I commented at Norman Finkelstein's Substack, I don't see things getting better in this conflict before they get worse.
RSH is on the money with his summary- in exchanges I’ve had with Karlof1 at his Substack we’ve come to the conclusion that Israel as a Nation State is done for, and Israeli citizens would do well to emigrate to Ukraine. The two state solution is “na ga happen” - a Unified Palestine is the surest path to peace in the region. Jerusalem can be a neutral Holy Land for all of the Abrahamic faiths. The former Israelites could even help the Russian SMO with de-Nazification of what will remain of Ukraine after the re-unification of Russian-speaking regions in the East. Quite a few emigrated from Russia to begin with and their addition to a depleted population will be appreciated. The Banderites cheered on and praise the Holocaust and they seem to be falling from favor with their NATO backers. We will see. (“Knock on wood” sez I 🫤)
Response to The Busker's "Israel-Palestine: An Analysis by Alastair Crooke"
" this could have provided the trigger for the implementation of a Hamas plan that had been in place for some time. It is also possible that the provocation was intended to trigger Hamas’s plan - who knows."
Very well explained. This is precisely where everyone except Crooke falls down in their analysis. Everyone talks about it being a "Hamas trap" for Israel whereas it is also an "Israeli trap" for the Resistance. In other words, both sides used the Al-Agsa provocation as a means of furthering their agendas. Hamas used it to get the Palestinian issue back on the front burner while the Zionists used it to get both an opportunity to expunge the Palestinians as well as get the US to take care of Hezbollah and Iran for them. The latter goal has not yet been achieved because Iran has wisely stayed its hand and Hezbollah is using a slow escalation dominance capability to keep the war under control until it is determined whether Israel even has the ability to "crush Hamas".
People tend to view everything as binary: it's either this or that. Most situations are more complex than that, and usually both and even multiple circumstances have some validity and effect on the situation.
People also talk about how the US is "worried" about the war expanding. As usual, there is not one non-binary 'US" in this. The neocon crazies almost certainly coordinated this with, or at least fully support, Netanyahu and his crazies with an intent to attack Hezbollah and Iran at some point. The question is whether there is push back from the Pentagon or elsewhere. Some in the Pentagon no doubt remember the Marine barracks bombing In Beirut in 1983 which killed 241 US military, mostly Marines. Some in the Pentagon may want to avoid a repeat, but others may want payback for that.
The real problem, as always, is that the neocons control Biden, and all these people, including most of the military leaders in the Pentagon,as Andrei Martyanov continually repeats, have zero knowledge of how limited their military options are and what the consequences might be of expanding the conflict. And the ones who do understand that do not have the direct ear of the White House.
It's exactly the same situation as the Ukraine debacle. Anyone who understood the military balance between Russia and Ukraine, which was presented in every major Western media before that conflict started, would have instantly understood that Ukraine could not possibly defeat Russia. But the majority of the leaders in the West, including supposed military and intelligence leaders, did NOT so understand the situation, because they are incompetent, as Martyanov has proven over and over.
So as I commented at Norman Finkelstein's Substack, I don't see things getting better in this conflict before they get worse.
Thanks for that Richard - can't disagree with any of it.
RSH is on the money with his summary- in exchanges I’ve had with Karlof1 at his Substack we’ve come to the conclusion that Israel as a Nation State is done for, and Israeli citizens would do well to emigrate to Ukraine. The two state solution is “na ga happen” - a Unified Palestine is the surest path to peace in the region. Jerusalem can be a neutral Holy Land for all of the Abrahamic faiths. The former Israelites could even help the Russian SMO with de-Nazification of what will remain of Ukraine after the re-unification of Russian-speaking regions in the East. Quite a few emigrated from Russia to begin with and their addition to a depleted population will be appreciated. The Banderites cheered on and praise the Holocaust and they seem to be falling from favor with their NATO backers. We will see. (“Knock on wood” sez I 🫤)