The Autumn rains, mud and fogs have impacted on the battlefields in Ukraine slowing the pace of conflict in some places and mercifully reducing casualties. Elsewhere, cold temperatures and winter snows have caused frostbite to captured Ukrainian soldiers. This is a very different environment to that experienced by those fighting in Israel-Palestine where a temporary ‘humanitarian’ ceasefire has begun in Gaza. Of course, much of this so called ‘fighting’ involves the murder of innocent civilians, mostly women and children. I have much more to say about this in my Israel-Palestine Update which you will all receive today. In Ukraine, the battle between factions continues as shell and manpower shortages increase. More and more women are being seen on the battle fronts where there has been very little movement but the small gains that have been secured have been costly for both the Russians and the Ukrainians. The legacy media coverage of the Ukraine conflict has been declining for some time but the catastrophe that is Gaza has probably provided the coup de gras. This decline also applies to Ukraine’s standing; its importance if you like, on the world stage. Many Western politicians now see it as an ‘inconvenience’ which they wish would simply go away. Moreover, the Ukrainians know this and are becoming desperate. It’s been a tense week.
The Saviour
Someone by the name of Nabil Ariaye posted the following on Twitter, after President Putin visited a girl suffering with Leukemia in hospital. It perfectly sums up the huge contribution this man has made towards the rehabilitation of Russia - so is worth quoting at length:
Rogachev, a little girl battling leukemia, met a man who saved Russia from the brink of the abyss in the horrific 1990s. He revived the economy of a country that was looted by the West after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and destroyed the oligarchs one after another. He helped build the strongest, most educated, and deadly army the world has ever known, and with a fraction of the budget used by others and in the face of widespread Western discrimination, it united the Russians and helped them remember who they were. While all the Western powers expected him to fail in this way; But he tried to put Russia in its global position once again. Russia is now the tip of the spear that ends Western domination and is replaced by a multipolar world order. He may not have noticed it yet, but the little girl met one of the greatest leaders in the contemporary history of the world, she met Putin.
I don’t do hero worship, and I can’t guarantee that this man’s account is totally accurate, but you have to admire Putin’s achievements in saving Russia and these will rank alongside those of Catherine the Great and Peter the Great.
Speaking at the United Cultures Forum in St. Petersburg on the 17th November, Putin said that he does not rule out reconciliation with Europe whose elites are having a difficult time. Thus Putin is saying that the European elites are the problem rather than European people because they have lost their sense of tradition and rely too much on the US. Putin claimed that much of the tension in the world is due to the ‘claims of special forces to exclusivity including cultural ones’. “ Vulgar globalization and cultural expansion increase the potential for conflict”, he said. The West’s failure to recognise that morality and culture are relative is definitely part of the problem.
But Putin, who often offers a historical perspective, made reference to Peter The Great who ‘opened a window to the West’ in the 18th century. Peter allowed Russia to ‘Westernise’ and since then there has been a conflict between its European and Asian identities. Maybe the First World War, the Russian Revolution and The Great Patriotic War fomented a strong Russian identity that was gradually undermined by Western political intrigue and developments in communications technology.
US Poll - Americans want ceasefire.
A recent YouGov poll indicates that 70% of Americans surveyed either ‘strongly want’ or ‘somewhat want’ negotiations in Ukraine. Somewhat fewer Americans, i.e. 63% are in favour of a permanent ceasefire in Israel-Palestine - according to RT.
The Great Unpatriotic War
According to the BBC, more than 20,000 Ukrainian men have left the country in order to avoid being drafted. Many managed to swim across to Romania, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Moldova. But guards caught another 21,000 trying to escape. A Ukrainian defence spokesman said that there are hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians trying to elude the draft.
CNN has interviewed several Ukrainian draft dodgers whose attitude towards their country was revealing. Sputnik has reported on this. One 32 year old interviewed said:
I believe that everything involved in the mobilization process is illegal and unfair . A lot of the activity that the recruitment centers undertake is devoid of any legal basis. So, I'm against everything that is happening… if I get a draft notice tomorrow, I'll go and consult with a lawyer and fight it.
Another said:
What has this country given me that I owe it anything? My parents paid for my education, although I was an excellent student and had to study on a budget. It turns out that no one adheres to the law, but everyone talks about obligations.
An IT worker hoping to avoid the draft said:
I think that Ukraine is not ready to fight Russia. We do not have the strength, money or weapons to do so. We were not prepared for it at all.
The consensus among those interviewed was that Ukraine’s offensive was a pointless loss of life and that Ukraine cannot beat Russia. Its is also being reported that mercenaries are leaving Ukraine like rats escaping a red hot barrel.
Soldiers disabled by the war are not seen as heroes who defended their country but as an inconvenience that no one wants to deal with. One soldier who lost both legs in the conflict was refused housing simple because he is disabled. This was not an isolated incident. In a recent survey, only 18.8% of veterans had a positive view of how their country is treating them - according to RT.
The Express, a British newspaper is reporting that as many as 650,000 of military age men are living in the EU as refugees - according to Slavyangrad. I couldn’t find the article so can’t confirm.
Maidan Coup - 10th Anniversary
The coup many say was orchestrated by the CIA on behalf of the West may have been executed in order to prevent Ukraine joining with Russia in the Eurasian Economic Union rather than the EU. The coup started on the 21st November 2013 but the Ukraine government didn’t fall until February of the following year. The coup came under the direction and influence of Nazi thugs but people in the Crimea, the Donbass and elsewhere wanted to remain with Russia and either broke away or tried to break away from Ukraine. You can read more here.
Mass Ukrainian Mobilization
Many groups hitherto exempt from military service will no longer be so. Young people in college, women and carers of disabled people will now be asked to serve. Some Ukrainian sources are saying that the lack of artillery and air power is forcing the Ukraine military to use more infantry (aka cannon fodder). One Ukrainian source, claims the West is pressing Z to mobilise anyone between 17 and 70 along with additional female mobilization.
Shell Shortages
The Great Z has publicly lamented a decline in the supply of shells due to Israel’s need to kill children in Gaza. He has even partaken lightly in the ‘Ukraine has lost’ narrative by suggesting that if they don’t get more shells they will need to retreat, according to Bloomberg. US Senator, Chris Murphy has warned that Ukraine could start to run out of ammunition in a matter of weeks and may not survive until Feb 2024. Many commentators would agree.
Re-Education
The Times Newspaper is celebrating the re-education of Russian POWs who the Ukrainians say they are ‘pulling out of a cult’. Yes - they have reduced more than a thousand years of Russian history, tradition and culture to a cult. But the the Geneva Convention prohibits the forcing prisoners of war to participate in ideological and political propaganda under the guise of recreation and entertainment. Of course, because the POWs are Russian the British press feels it prudent to ignore niceties like the Geneva Convention - just as the Nazis did in the Soviet Union.
Z Sacks Medical Chief
Z has sacked Major-General Tetiana Ostashchenko, commander of the Medical Forces of the Armed Forces pointing out that he needed a ‘fundamentally new level of medical support for our soldiers’, according to Al Jazeera. The care of wounded on the battlefields has been abysmal for some time and had it been better many Ukrainians would still be living. Some say she has been sacked in order to undermine support for Zaluzhny. Some Ukrainian sources claim the Ermak and Z will continue to undermine Zaluzhny who is seen as a rival.
Ukraine Terror Attacks (i.e. attacks that target civilians)
Moscow
At 1 am Moscow Time on the 19th November, a drone was shot down by local air defences over Moscow. No damage was caused, according to Tass. Another drone was shot down late in the evening and landed on a motorway.
DPR
On the evening of the 18th of November, according to sitreports:
The AFU attacked residential neighbourhoods of Donetsk with the help of three UAVs. The first strike hit workers at a car repair shop behind the Galaxy shopping centre in the Petrovsky district. An eyewitness told Readovka war correspondent Maxim Dolgov that two workers were injured because of the drone attack, after which another enemy drone attacked an ambulance that had arrived. The third UAV was completing the attack, it dropped a shell on the crowd of people near the shopping centre. Three casualties are known at the moment.
Note that a drone attacked an ambulance the Ukrainians knew would be arriving to assist the casualties caused by the first attack.
On the 19th one citizen was killed by artillery fire and the following day two people were seriously injured by an explosive device dropped from a drone onto a bus stop. Previously, the Ukrainians have targeted bus stops with missiles and shells, so this is a change of tactic. Also on the 19th, the actress Polina Menshikh was killed while performing on stage in the village of Kumachovo. This was reported in Pravda which also contained the following report not officially confirmed:
A DPR representative at the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of Issues Related to War Crimes of Ukraine clarified on its Telegram channel that on November 19 at 14:30 Moscow time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired five rockets from a HIMARS launcher. As a result of the shelling, two apartment buildings and four civilian infrastructure facilities were damaged. According to strana.ua publication that cited a Ukrainian military man with call sign Magyar, about 25 people were killed as a result of the attack and another 100 people were injured.
On the 21st November, three civilians were wounded by Ukrainian shelling in Gorlovka and Donetsk city and another seven were wounded by shelling in Gorlovka the following day On the 23rd, another civilian was injured by shelling.
Kursk
The village of Tetkino was attacked with Ukrainian artillery on November 18th but there were no casualties. On the 19th, the Ukrainians launched 13 attacks on Nikolayevo-Daryino in the Suzhansky district. On the 20th a drone was shot down but caused no damage and another was shot down by border guards on the 21st. Three more drones attacked the Rylysky district the following day. On the 23rd November, the village of Gorodishche twice came under shelling.
Bryansk
A drone was shot down over the village of Unechsky on the 18th - there were no casualties. But artillery fire targeting the village of Grudskaya damaged electricity lines. On the 20th November another drone was shot down and another disabled by electronic means the next day
Belgorod
On the 19th November, Ukrainian forces attacked the village of Rovenki. Several cars, power lines and residential buildings were damaged. Overnight, border areas were attacked with artillery shells, mortars, kamikaze drones and Tochka U missiles which are normally used for defence. 10,000 people have been moved out of Belgorod for their own safety since the SMO began - according to Tass. On the 21st November, the region suffered heavy shelling, according to Rybar and this continued into the 22nd. Three more drones were shot down overnight on the 23rd/24th.
Rostov
On the 21st November, air defences shot down a drone over the Kamensky district.
The Sea War
Crimea
On the 17th November, the Ukrainian launched another attack on Crime attempting to land in a boat similar to the above. But this boat, its crew and 7 unmanned boats were all destroyed by Russian defences, including Mig-31 fighters. On the 22nd November, three drones were destroyed above Crimea and four unmanned boats headed for Crimea were destroyed in the Black Sea. On the 23rd, 13 drones were destroyed over Crimea, according to the Military Chronicle. Other reports suggest that dozens of drones were shot down down over Kherson Oblast and Crimea. In addition, an intrepid bunch of GUR skiers was intercepted on the Black Sea but I don’t know what became of them.
The Air War (Map)
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
17th/18th November Overnight
Slavyangrad reported Geraniums flying over the Black Sea towards Odessa on the night of the 17th. Zaporizhzhe was also targeted with geraniums and Kharkov suffered missiles attacks. According to Slavyangrad:
Ukrainian monitoring channels write that UAVs, presumably Geran-2, are attacking military and industrial facilities used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Kirovograd and Poltava regions.
Mirgorod airfield in Poltava was also attacked by geraniums overnight along with Starokonstantinov airfield in Khmelnytskyi oblast. Air raid warnings also went off in Vinnytsa, Kiev, Nikolaev, Cherkasy and Chernigov regions. Energy infrastructure facilities were destroyed in Odessa as these images show.
According the Russian MoD on the 18th November:
In the Kiev region, the arsenal of ammunition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Karpilovka region was destroyed, and the same arsenal was destroyed in Aleksandrovka, Zhytomyr region. The warehouse of aviation ammunition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the Lozovatka airfield in the Dnepropetrovsk region was also destroyed.
18th/19th November Overnight
Mirgorod airfield (Poltava) suffered another attack from Geraniums approaching from the direction of Sumy. Kiev was also attacked along with Starokonstantinov airfield in Khmelnytskyi oblast. Cherkassy and Vinnitsa were also targeted. On the night of the 18th, more than 400 towns and villages were left without electricity, according to Ukrainian sources. An oil depot was set on fire in Odessa as shown here.
19th/20th November Overnight
More than a dozen Geranium drones attacked warehouse containing Ukrainian military vehicles overnight. In total, 50 or more drones were launched and the Ukrainians claimed to have destroyed 15.
20th/21st November Overnight
According to the Military Chronicle:
At night, there was another massive raid of "Geraniums" on the enemy's rear facilities. Explosions were heard in Starokostyantyniv, Khmelnytskyi region, in Volyn, Rivne, Kyiv regions. There were also missile strikes on the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Odessa and Dnipro were also attacked with Geraniums. Mirgorod airfield in Poltava came under attack yet again along with the city of Nizhyn (Chernihiv) and Zhmerinka (Vinnytsia region).
21st/22nd November Overnight
The Starokonstantinov airport in Khmelnitsky region was attacked again overnight. In addition, Geraniums visited Kiev and Volyn regions. In Odessa the port infrastructure was hit, two explosions were heard. Kirovograd, Dnepropetrovsk and Cherkasy also had air raid alerts. Zhytomyr was also attacked by Geraniums, according to Slavyangrad.
22nd/23rd November Overnight
Geraniums and missiles attacked electric facilities in Krivoy Rog and Nikolaev regions overnight according to the Two Majors.
23rd/24th November Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
The RF Armed Forces at night again hit with Geraniums at #Starokonstantinov in Khmelnitsky region, where a military airfield is located. UAVs were reported in the Vinnitsa region, our missiles were recorded by the enemy on their way to the Odessa and Poltava regions.
Mirgorod airfield was attacked again along with Kirovograd and Nikolaev, according to Slavyangrad. A Russian drone also destroyed an oil depot in Sumy region.
Ukrainian Drone/Missile Attacks
Belgorod
On the 18th November, Ukrainian drones targeting communications infrastructure in the villages of Gorkovsky in Grayvoron district injured two civilians, according to Tass.
The Ground War
This week, the weather has changed in Ukraine. Autumn has brought rain, snow, fogs and mud. The Military Chronicle also reports that the Ukrainian forces are weakening both in strength and number.
Russian MoD Reports
w/e 3rd November: Casualties 5435 killed and wounded (776 per day); equipment losses = 377 (includes 35 watercraft)
w/e 10th November: Casualties 4825 killed and wounded; equipment losses 308 (includes 15 boats)
w/e 17th November: Casualties 5115 killed and wounded; equipment losses 227
w/e 24th November: 4190 Casualties killed and wounded; equipment losses 230 (includes 12 boats)
As you can see, the Ukrainians have suffered fewer casualties this week.
The Fronts
Avdeevka
According to the Military Chronicle, on the 20th November the Russians were closing in on the city from all sides. In the south, the Ukrainians started retreating from trenches they had occupied since 2014. In the north, stubborn battles are being fought near Stepove. But it looks as if the Ukrainians are preparing to pull out of the city since they are digging trenches as part of new defences 30kms to the west near Selidovo. The defences will not be as formidable as those constructed over the many years at Avdeevka. The Ukrainians are bringing in reinforcements to plug gaps but it probably won’t be enough. Heavy fighting continued here on the 24th November.
Zaporizhzhe - Rabotino - Verbove
On the 17th and 18th November, the Ukrainians attempted to break through to Rabotino under cover of fog but all attacks were repelled. Ukrainian assault groups also attacked towards Verbove but were not successful. By the end of the week there was an operational pause here due to bad weather but shelling from both sides continues.
Artemovsk (Bakhmut)
On the 18th November, the Russians entered the centre of Andreevka on the southern flank of Artemovsk. According to the Slavyangrad, the Ukrainians have lost a whole brigade (2,500 men) in their unsuccessful attempt to defend the village. The Russians have also had success in the direction of Kleshcheevka, according to Slavyangrad.
Kherson - Krynki
The Ukrainian bridgehead at Krynki is not faring well, according to the Military Chronicle and the troops there are in danger of being surrounded by Russian marines and riflemen. The bridgehead has expanded slightly this week but the Ukrainians have suffered many casualties including prisoners of war with frostbite.
Kupyansk
In Kupyansk Direction, fighting has intensified around the village of Sinkovka where, it is estimated, the Ukrainians lose 50 men each and every day.
The Economic War
Ruble not Rubble
Famously, Sleepy Joe Biden claimed, following the start of the SMO, that after the West imposed sanctions on Russia, the ruble would become rubble. Well - as with many of the West’s hopes for Russia, including Von der Leyen’s promise that its industry would be ‘in tatters’, the hand of fate has not been kind to the West. While German industry is ‘in tatters’, Russia’s is thriving. And the ruble’s rise since the beginning of October has been higher than that of any other world currency. As for the dollar, most commentators know that the future is not good.
MEP - Sanctions on Russia Impoverishing EU
French MEP Thierry Mariani has come out and said what most European politicians must be thinking but dare not say: i.e. sanctions on Russia have backfired on the countries that imposed them.
Germany and France - ‘We need Fuel!’
Germany and France have called on the US for fuel supplies which have been cut short due to their own sanctions on Russia and the war in the middle east. They had been expecting to be supplied via an alternative supply route but have found that there are none - according to Slavyangrad.
Netherlands Gives Ukraine 2 billions Euros
According to Slavyangrad, the Dutch are to give Z approximately $2 billions in military assistance to show their unwavering support. They don’t know that they are simply condemning many Ukrainian men (and women) to death. The ‘Ukraine has lost’ narrative is clearly not taking hold in Holland.
US Ukraine Aid - A Sedative Pill
Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s envoy to Washington, has described the US’s recent $100 million military aid package as a ‘sedative pill’ for a country on the verge of collapse both politically and militarily. The aid will prolong the conflict a little perhaps but it will also kill thousands more Ukrainian men and women for no benefit - according to Tass. One spanking new HIMARS launcher was among the goodies which will allow the Ukrainians to kill more civilians at bus stops in Donetsk.
Germany
Germany is short of 3.25 billions Euros ($3 billion dollars approx.) to pay unemployment benefit to its citizens yet it is to increase Ukrainian aid from $4 billions to $8 billions. These people really don’t care about their own people - the mind boggles.
UK Bond Sales Plummet
Bank of England bond sales are plummeting to the extent that a loss of £20 billion is expected next year. This shortfall will come out of taxes on the British people. This is the first time the UK’s public finances have suffered losses on this scale.
Ukraine to get World Bank Loan
Ukraine will get a $1.1 billions loan from the World Bank, according to RT.
Russian Economy Recovers
The Russian economy has now almost fully recovered according to Bloomberg. The economy grew by 5.5%, which is much higher than was hoped for and the banking, car sales and air transport sections all benefiting. For more detail and graphs, look here. Also, as I’ve already said, the ruble is doing very well.
World Politics
Netherlands
Geert Wilder’s Party For Freedom has won a large number of seats in the recent election which means it will probably form part of the government. Wilder is against immigration, expansion of the EU and providing military aid to Ukraine. This is not good news for Z. But I’ve heard that Wilders is pro-Israel and is being funded by US Zionists.
Truckers Against Ukraine
Truckers in Slovakia have joined their Polish counterparts in blockading border points with Ukraine in protest against the EU’s decision to allow Ukrainian truckers to operate in Europe without licenses. This will affect the amount of work available to Polish and Slovak truckers.
Finland Border Closures Spark Protests
Finland has closed border crossings into Russia on weekends due to problems with asylum seekers - or so they say. This means that people who live on the Russian side but work on the Finnish side can’t get to work, including work as carers of Finnish citizens. Slavyangrad has pictures of the protests here.
Ukraine must join NATO
According to former deputy chair of UK’s Conservative Party, Michael Ashcroft Ukraine must join NATO in order to defeat Russia.
The only outcome of this war that NATO should not allow is a victory for Moscow. Allowing Ukraine to become a full member of the alliance is better than allowing an evil power like Russia to absorb part or even all of Ukraine. That would be both a betrayal of Kiev, and would certainly send the wrong message to the world. Ukraine could become a NATO member as soon as tomorrow if the proposal were on the table, but the alliance's member states fear that this would lead to a major escalation of the conflict in Eastern Europe.
His last sentence appears sound but the rest of it is the product of delusion. Similar comments were expressed by former head of NATO, General Anders Fogh Rasmussen last week.
Russian Spies Everywhere!
The Czech Republic may be restricting movement of Russian diplomats for fear of espionage. Visas should therefore be valid for single countries rather than for all the Shengen countries between which free movement is usually allowed via a single visa. Does that sound petty or what!
Austin Urges Kiev to Defend, not Attack
Lloyd Austin visited Kiev to advise Z that his forces should now take to defending since the West will not be able to provide sufficient aid for offensive action. He also urged a temporary ceasefire to coincide with the US election campaigning and voting periods - according to Slavyangrad.
Many Ukrainians Would Concede Land for Peace
According to recent polls more Ukrainians are now willing to conceded land to Russia in exchange - according to Bloomberg (reported in Tass).
The Emerging Multi-Polar World Order
Pakistan has officially announced that it will be applying to join BRICS and increase its ties/cooperation with Russia. On the other hand, the newly elected government of Argentina may not join BRICS at all. Instead, it appears to be aligning itself with the West.
Many thanks for you views, subscriptions, likes and kind comments.
Best Wishes
Rob
I think that "The coup started on the 21st November 2023..." should be 2013. Just a little typo.
There's a lot of work in this one Rob - a wide spectrum covered.
Deluded Tory is not such a surprise - the apparent bloodlust of many UK MPs is not easily assuaged. At least their Ukrainian diet doesn't involve thousands of children and their parents!
Thank you, dear Dr. Rob so much for this excellent report. It is, just like all the previous ones, really useful and very much appreciated.