Ukraine Weekly Update
16th February 2024
Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.
I’m finding it hard to single out an event or a piece of news that stands out as the most important of the week. Of course, people who move in different circles may be able to point to something. The horrors continue in Gaza - so much so that I can’t read about them for the moment - need a rest. The Houthis are still not vanquished and the risk of escalation in the Middle East is about the same as last week, in my humble opinion. The Scary Narrative has probably been less successful than the West hoped for and there has been a backlash inspired by realism. The comedy that is American party politics is gaining more and more laughs. Biden is too old and dotty to be convicted in a court but is well able to run the ‘free world’. Perhaps the most hilarious prospect is that of Kamala Harris as leader of this ‘free world’. Did I honestly just say that!
But it’s not so funny really, is it.
The farmers of Europe continue to fulfil their unlikely role as the rising proletariat and we are all grateful for the hope they inspire. The pouring of manure on the Ukrainian embassy was my highlight of the week (see below).
In Ukraine, the political upheavals that some anticipated following the sacking of Zaluzhny have not materialised and the General himself has stayed reasonably quiet. But I suppose he won’t mind that Syrsky will carry the can for the inevitable collapse of Avdeevka which is happening in real time on the Telegram Channels.
I get the sense that the Russians are now gaining momentum but I appreciate that the journey to total victory will be a long and bloody one. The Germans lost as early as February 1943 at Stalingrad but they didn’t capitulate until April 1945: more than two years later. However, the distance between Stalingrad and Berlin is 1723 miles whereas the distance between Bakhmut (Artemovsk) and Kiev is 447 miles.
Russian Concerns
Vlad ‘n Tucks
It seems that the ‘interview of the century’ attracted 166 million ‘X’ viewers on the first day alone. But the EU was not at all pleased. Some officials have called for a travel ban on Tucker as a ‘mouthpiece’ for Putin and Donald Trump - though I have no idea why Trump was mentioned. Former MEP, Luis Garicano said: ‘‘He is no longer a reporter, but a propagandist for the most disgusting regime on European soil and the one that is most dangerous to our peace and security". I can think of lots of candidates for most disgusting regime on European territory, including the EU itself and Ukraine, but Russia is definitely not among them. NATO has undermined peace and security through its expansion in Europe and its arming of Ukraine. Westerners created this storm and now they are complaining that it’s raining. Boris Johnson called Tucker a ‘traitor’ for giving ‘the dictator’ a voice - according to RT . He also denied that he had anything to do with the collapse of talks in Istanbul and rolled out the obligatory comparisons with the Nazis and the nonsense claims of Russian rapes, tortures and the blowing up of kindergartens. Boris is such a drama queen.
Big Pharma Used Russians as Lab Rats in Mariupol
Experts investigating Western backed laboratories in Mariupol have uncovered documents in the basement of a psychiatric hospital indicating that Russians and Ukrainian patients (including infants) were injected with substances as part of a bio-warfare program that targeted Slavic DNA. Such practices are outlawed in the West and could constitute crimes against humanity. Sputnik has the full story here.
The Hacker War
Not much praise is heaped upon the Russian hackers who are doing their bit for the war effort - so I thought I should give them some space. I saw this report from the Two Majors that may be of interest to some:
Russian cyber fighters from Just Evil (https://t.me/WeJustEvil) (ex-Killnet) and Anonymus-Sudan knocked out the Internet in Poland, the attack also affected EU countries, interfering with assistance to Ukraine - details
▪️The results of the attack bore great fruit, bringing down the largest provider in Poland.
▪️Our hackers seek to attack the enemy’s infrastructure, disrupting the remote repair of NATO equipment in Ukraine and disrupting the logistics of supplies of Western equipment.
▪️Hackers used a new method of attacking the provider’s ecosystem, which caused large-scale disruptions throughout Poland. The attack was recorded in the NET BLOCKS (https://t.me/netblocks/807) monitoring system
▪️After the first wave of attacks, the Internet speed of the Polish provider Play dropped to 0.3 megabits per second and was constantly interrupted. Other EU countries were also partially affected. In Warsaw and other cities, bank and transport cards did not work.
The same hackers disabled 30,000 electric vehicles along with their ‘filling stations’ in Lithuania - that’ll teach them to go green.
Ukrainian Matters
School Kids Want Out
Around half (47%) of 14 year old Ukrainian school children have said that they will leave the country once they have graduated.
Lambs to the Slaughter
Just look how young these new Ukrainian recruits are. It’s a bloody disgrace.
Political Collapse Ukraine?
Mark Sleboda had a very interesting chat (19 mins) with Danny Haiphong over the weekend exploring the possibility of a political collapse preceding a military one in Ukraine. Mark is well aware of the infighting that has been going on between factions supporting Zelenzky and those favouring Zaluznhy, who has remained reasonably quiet since his sacking. If elections are called in a couple of months Zaluzhny could challenge Zelensky politically but a coup or the assassination of either are also possibilities.
Mobilisation Bill
The Bill has passed its first reading but is not yet law. It appears that it will not become law until April and those recruited won’t be in service until July. The bill requires all tractors to be registered with the military which can call upon the owners to release them when required. This could paralyze the work of farmers.
Zaluzhny Fallout
There were some protests against Zaluzhny’s sacking in Kiev but they were small and consisted mainly of women (since men are in short supply).
Why I Sacked Him
It seems to me that the reasons Z has given for sacking his commander are actually the reasons Ukraine is losing this war and these are mainly outside the commander’s control. They include:
There was no plan. But you can’t plan an inevitable defeat.
Troops must have Western weapons - but that’s not within the control of the commander.
Excessive numbers of personnel at HQ is not acceptable - i.e. too many trying to save their skins by staying in the rear. Zaluzhny probably played his part in that.
Rotation systems must be improved - an acknowledgement that Ukraine is running out of troops.
The quality of Military training must be improved - i.e. they are running out of troops - not Zaluzhny’s fault.
You can read more here.
Zaluzhny has been given the title ‘Hero of Ukraine’ by the way.
Changes in Military Personnel
True to his word, Zelensky has replaced commanders at different levels in the military establishment. You can read some detail here.
General 200 - The Butcher of Bakhmut
General Syrsky’s is being called General 200 after the military category ‘cargo 200’ (i.e. killed in action) because he has presided over so many of these. I’m not sure if people are also calling him the butcher of Bakhmut but he has certainly earned the epithet as everyone knows. Syrsky was born in Russia’s Vladimir region in 1965 and was previously commander of ground forces in Ukraine. He now has overall command. It appears that he is universally disliked among the rank and file. Pravda provides more detail here. His parents and his son are Russian patriots and a bitter Oleksandr has called his father 'scum'. And there’s me thinking I’ve got family problems!
Ukraine Terror Attacks (attacks that target civilians)
9th/10th February
For some time, the mayor of Belgorod has been providing very detailed accounts of Ukrainian attacks on civilians. But I don’t believe people following the Update want this sort of detail so I will provide the abridged version. It seems that many villages in Belgorod suffered heavy mortar and shell fire. Some damage was caused to cars, houses, garages and agricultural equipment but most villages escaped this. There were no casualties. You can view the full report here.
10th/11th February
A multi-story residential building in Gorlovka was hit by shells overnight killing one and injuring several others.
11th/12th February
Attacks on the DPR have declined recently from 100 down to 5 shells per day and there have been no casualties. This could be a consequence of shell shortages along with the disruption caused by the Russian assault on Avdeevka. Drones and mortar shells attacked various villages in Belgorod but very little damage was caused and there no casualties. Belgorod’s governor gave this report for the 11th Feb.
12th/13th February
Several villages came under attack in Belgorod causing some damage but no casualties. In the DPR, two civilians were injured by Ukrainian strikes. The Mayor of Belgorod gave this report.
13th/14th February
Rybar provided this report:
During the night, 9 UAVs were intercepted and destroyed over the territories of Belgorod (2 UAVs) and Voronezh (1 UAV), as well as over the Black Sea (6 UAVs). In the evening, a UAV was shot down over the Bryansk region. Shelling continues in the Belgorod region. In Donetsk (DPR), a civilian born in 1963 was killed and a man born in 1956 was wounded as a result of an AFU airdrop from a UAV.
14th/15th February Overnight
Fourteen RM-70 ‘Vampire’ MLRS rockets were destroyed above Belgorod overnight but some managed to get through damaging residential buildings, cars fences and so on. But unfortunately the attacks also killed up to nine civilians (including a baby and a teenager) and wounded twenty others.
The Sea War (Map)
10th/11th February Overnight
Ukrainian naval drones attempted to attack civilian shipping in the north western section of the Black Sea. The attacks were repelled by patrol boats, aviation and electronic warfare.
13th/14th Overnight
The Ukrainians apparently landed some ‘sea drone’ hits on the landing ship ‘Caesar Kunikov’ in the Black Sea causing it to keel over according to the Two Majors. The crew was evacuated safely. A later report claimed the ship had been sunk but this could be false news according to another report . A Western RQ-4B observation drone was involved in directing the attack. The Russians may respond by sacking the admiral of the Black Sea fleet, so it is rumoured.
Rybar reported on other attacks in Crimea:
…two UAVs were shot down 70 km south of Yalta, and three more were destroyed two hours later 6 km south of Feodosia - all five by Su-30SM fighters. The latter were suppressed by electronic warfare equipment as they approached Anapa. The drones fell into the water 12 km from the city.
The Air War (Map)
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
9th/10th February Overnight
Loud explosions were heard in the industrial zone in Kharkov where a fuel storage facility was set ablaze.
10th/11th February Overnight
Geraniums were reported over Kiev, Vinnitsa, Krivoy Rog, Dnepropetrovsk, Kirovograd, Odessa and Poltava. Strong explosions occurred in Dnepropetrovsk, Nikolaev, Poltava, Kremenchug, Odessa, Cherkassy, Zhitomer and Ochakov. It was a busy night, according to Slavyangrad.
11th/12th February Overnight
Geraniums damaged an electric substation in Dnepropetrovsk overnight, according to Slavyangrad. In Lyubotin (Kharkov) the command post of a territorial unit situated in a college building was hit. Ukrainian reserves stationed at Pavlograd and Pokrovsk came under attack and many were destroyed. A military base in Voznesensk (Nikolaev) was also destroyed. The Russians probably know that Syrsky intends to reinforce Avdeevka. Kiev and Odessa were also attacked. Among the targets hit were port facilities in Odessa, an oil depot and a military factory in Nikolaev and a train station in Kirivograd including train loads of military equipment.
12th/13th February Overnight
Selidovo
A training camp for troops was attacked in the town of Selidovo (west of Avdeevka) with Iskander and other missiles. Preliminary reports indicate that the 3rd Azov assault brigade was hit on its way to reinforce Avdeevka and that casualties could be in excess of 1000 people. But General Syrsky will be attempting to ensure that the true figures are never revealed. It is thought that 1500 troops were at the camp when it was hit. South Front estimates 500 dead and 700 wounded according to its sources. The Military Chronicle estimates only several dozen dead and several hundreds wounded.
14th/15th February Overnight
Kiev Major Klitschko reported that the city came under attack overnight. Starokonstantinovka airfield was attacked by missiles while Zaporozhye was attacked by Geraniums. Lvov was also attacked along with Kalush (Ivano-Frankovsk oblast) - according to Slavyangrad. In Lvov ‘an object containing enemy officers was hit’. Infrastructure facilities in Dnepropetrovsk were also attacked. Kiev, Lvov, Lutsk, Vinnitsa, Mirgorod, Dnepropetrovsk, and Krivoy Rog, as well as targets in the Zaporozhye and Khmelnytsky regions, were hit by ballistic missiles.
15th/16th February Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
Our Aerospace Forces hit military facilities in Ukraine during the night. Deployment points in Lvov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Chernigov region, and ammo depots in Poltava region came under attack. In Kiev, explosions occurred at an UAV production plant. New attacks on the Starokonstantinov airfield, which began to be restored after previous attacks.
Ukrainian Missile/Drone Attacks
9th/10th February Overnight
According to Rybar:
Ukrainian drones were intercepted in the Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, and Nizhny Novgorod regions, as well as south of the Crimean Peninsula. Once again, the enemy targeted the oil refining industry.
13th/14th February Overnight
An oil depot in the Kursk region was attacked causing a fire. There were no casualties.
14th/15th February Overnight
The Voronezh region was attacked and an oil facility was targeted. This time the drones were destroyed before they could cause damage.
The Ground War
Russian MoD Reports
w/e 26th January 5800 Casualties, killed and wounded: equipment losses: 375
w/e 2nd Feb 6230 Casualties killed and wounded: Equipment losses 356 (including 11 motor boats)
w/e 9th Feb 6030 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 257 (including 7 boats).
11th-16th February 5550 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 385.
I have no idea why the Russian MoD has presented the figures in such a way that makes like for like comparison difficult - but there you go. It is clear that losses in manpower and equipment, especially, have risen considerably this week.
The Fronts
Avdeevka
On February 14th Rezident reported that Ukrainian troops are leaving the city without permission in groups of 10-15. In two days, the garrison was reduced by 30%, according to this Ukrainian Telegram channel. By the end of the week there had been a mass exodus of Ukrainian troops from the city as the Russian army closed the cauldron. Fortifications are being prepared west of the city and many Ukrainian troops are falling back to these positions. On the 15th February, Slavangrad reported that there were around 7,000 troops trapped in the city trying to get out and panicking. Dima provides a detailed update of the situation on February 16th here (12 mins).
Bakhmut/Chasov Yar
According to the Two Majors on February 15th:
At Chasov Yar, the AFU continue to retreat. Ours have advanced south of Popovsky Forest and approached the northern outskirts of Ivanovskoye (Krasnoye). Having advanced from the Chernobylets village, our forces came close to Ivanovskoye from the east as well. The AFU are trying to counterattack, but so far they have only managed to slightly reduce the pace of our attacks.
Zaporozhye - Rabotino - Verbove
The Russians have been building up forces around Rabotino for about two weeks and it is believed that a huge offensive is coming soon.
Kherson - Kyrnki
There have been no changes in the Kyrinki ‘bridgehead’ where Ukrainian troops maintain a foothold in the basements of the village.
Kupyansk/Lyman
In the Kupyansk-Liman front section, the Ukrainians continue to press north of Sinkovka and east of Terny without significant changes.
The Economic War
EU To Steal Russian Funds
The EU has finally decided to steal the interest from $200 billions of frozen Russian funds which will be redirected to Ukraine - according to RT. But deciding is one thing, doing is another.
Hungary Blocks 13th Sanctions Package
Hungary is blocking the latest Russian sanctions package which also includes sanctions on Chinese firms. A Hungarian spokesman said that they needed more time to analyze the proposals.
UK Enters Recession
The UK has had two consecutive quarters of contraction so is therefore in recession. The latest quarterly contraction was 0.3% which is higher than the 0.1% predicted. At least one report suggests that the UK has been in recession for the past two years.
Ukraine Aid on Hold
The Bill that would have given $60 billions to Ukraine has not been passed so aid to Ukraine will not be discussed again until 28th February when the US lawmakers return from recess.
World Politics
‘Russian and Serbs are Brothers Forever’
These words were chanted by fans of Serbian club Red Star Svezda (aka Red Star Belgrade) at their game with Belgrade club Vozdovac. They also flew Russian flags and created a symbol of Russian club, Moscow Spartak. You can see images here. Maybe I should have posted this under ‘emerging MPWO’ because it is a sign that traditional, practical, historical (and therefore emotional) experiences can overcome Western ideology.
Trump ‘Almost Certainly’ Won in 2020 - Study Claims
A study carried out by the Heartland Institute claims that Mail in Ballot Fraud almost certainly cost Trump the election in 2020. Trump and many of his supporters have been saying this for years. You can read more at Zero Hedge.
Biden Suffering Age Related Dementia - Surgeon
John Hopkins University Professor and surgeon Marti Macari believes that Sleepy Joe shows symptoms of age-related dementia, which is incurable. Talking to Fox News, Macari observed:
Biden’s cognitive decline is happening right before our eyes. There is a very noticeable difference in the way it operates today compared to, say, five years ago. And this is really sad.
Many who have been paying attention will have suspected this for years but now it is being discussed on Fox News. Biden is under investigation in connection with secret state documents found at his home which could be a consequence of his poor memory. He escaped sanction on this basis. Zero Hedge has more here. Of course, some people will be asking whether Biden should be running the country. And the US attorney for West Virginia has asked that very question, urging Kamala Harris to invoke the 25th Amendment which allows the VP to declare the President unfit for office. You can read more here.
Kamala - ‘I Am Ready to Lead America’ (off a cliff!)
This was one of the most absurd statements I have heard in a long time. Kamala Harris couldn’t lead a beginners Origami class in a kindergarten let alone America. She must be one of the most invisible VPs ever. But if she’s called upon due to Sleepy Joe’s declining health she will be ready to lead, so she claims.
Trump - No Money, No Protection
At a recent campaign rally, Donald J warned European countries that if they don’t contribute to NATO they should not get its protection. Many European countries are not paying their fair share. Only 10 out of 30 countries in the bloc are contributing the 2% of GDP they promised. Stoltenberg condemned the statement reassuring European states that if any one of them is attacked NATO will provide a unified and effective response.
10 millions Refugees to Germany?
Germany is host to over a million Ukrainian refugees at present but its government is now claiming that if Ukraine falls, another 10 millions Ukrainians will be banging on the door - according to RT. This could be part of the ‘scary narrative’ to justify continued funding to Ukraine or to keep the people fearful.
We Were Wrong - Bundestag Deputy
Bundestag Deputy, Klaus Ernst has said that Germany was wrong to reject Russian gas which has ‘led to enormous economic difficulties’ and a ‘recession’. He accused his government of acting in accordance with ideology rather than in the interests of the country. It’s good to see that someone in Germany is awake. In his interview, Putin pointed out that an undamaged pipeline exists through which Germany could receive gas supplies: the tap simply requires turning on.
Estonian PM - Under Arrest
Kaja Kallas, the Estonian PM was placed ‘under arrest’ by the Kremlin for destroying Russian statues, apparently. Commenting on the decision, Russian spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova said: ‘Crimes against the memory of those who liberated the world from Nazism and fascism should be answered." She has a point. Much of the Western world has been taken in by the propaganda that the US beat the Nazis but this was achieved, principally, by the Russians who paid a massive blood price for the victory. But I expect most of you know this already. The Russians must see this as unforgiveable ingratitude.
Western Hypocrisy Knows No Bounds
Israel will be allowed to compete in the Eurovision Song Contest in spite of the Genocide in Gaza, in spite of the ICJ’s ruling, in spite of the world’s condemnation of Israel - yet Russia has been banned. I hope someone initiates some sort of (peaceful) protest.
Macron Assassination Plan
This is an interesting story that has not yet been confirmed. According to the Two Majors:
Ukrainian authorities were preparing an assassination attempt on the French President during Macron’s expected visit to Ukraine – France 24. It is alleged that this is why the French President cancelled his visit to Ukraine, arguing it was a security issue. The French media say that the head of the GUR Budanov worked on the operation to eliminate Macron, and he supervised the killers. The whole plan was spoiled by the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, who transmitted information to the French through his own channels.
The Scary Narrative
Stoltenberg et al
In a bid to counter Putin’s reassurances that he will not attack EU countries, Jens Stoltenberg has warned that confrontation with Russia could last decades if Russia wins in Ukraine, according to RT. Other EU countries will be at risk of Russian invasion, he said. So European countries must invest in 155mm shells etc. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, Swedish General Micael Biden, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, and British Defense Minister Grant Shapps have all stated in recent weeks that such a conflict could break out in as little as three years.
With some optimism, Bundeswehr General Carsten Breuer (above) said the conflict could happen within five years instead of three.
However, a recent survey shows that Russophobia is on the decline in most G7 countries with the exception of the UK and Japan. I’m not surprised that the UK is among these because we have been fed anti-Russian propaganda for decades.
Farmers’ Protests
Spain
Spain has become a focal point for protests by farmers and truckers who clashed with police between the 6th and the 11th February. You can read more here.
Dover
On Friday 9th February farmers began protesting against ‘net-zero’1 in the UK starting at Dover. They are also protesting cheap grain imports from Ukraine and cheap lamb imports from New Zealand.
France
French farmers have been criticised by Ukrainian officials for protesting. In response, the farmers flooded the Ukrainian embassy with manure. Nice touch. You can find more detail and some footage here.
Poland
Farmers in Poland protested against EU green policies and Ukrainian grain imports. Some Ukrainian grain was dumped on the road in places.
Belgium
Farmers blocked the port of Antwerp with 500 tractors on February 13th which disrupted companies such as Exxon and BASF.
Bulgaria
In Bulgaria, farmers stormed a government building after their PM Nikolai Denkov refused to listen to them. Demonstrators clashed with police.
The emerging Multi-Polar World Order
BRICS Nations Hold Huge Investible Wealth
According to a recent report by Henley and Partners, BRICS countries now hold investible wealth totaling $45 trillions and this is expected to increase substantially over the next ten years. BRICS countries comprise 46% of the world’s population and 36% of global GDP (Compared to the 30% GDP of the G7 countries).
Modi
Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai this week, Indian PM Narendra Modi called for increased involvement of the Global South in International decision making - according to RT.
That’s all for another week. Many thanks for your views, subscriptions, likes, shares and comments. Best Rob
Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.
Climate Science Destroyed In 8 Minutes - YouTube
Excellent report - as usual...
This report as usual is well structured and logically written, that it is a joy to read it everytime. Many thanks Dr. Rob, I do appreciate your work very much.