Ukraine Weekly Update

15th September 2023

With regard to Philosophising in a Phoney World, there has been insufficient interest for me to proceed on this substack - though I may try to create another substack for it (if I can). Apologies to those who were interested but I’ll let you know if I decide to/am able to do this on another platform.

This has been a dispiriting week for Ukraine. Its leaders have watched their betrayal unfold slowly until now, but after Anthony Blinken’s recent visit it is unfolding surely. Blinken’s advice to negotiate has not been well received by the Great Z and his entourage - to say the least. The saddest thing about this state of affairs is that most of the people of Ukraine, whether inside or outside of it, are totally ignorant about what has happened, is still happening and will happen in the future. It is so, so sad.

The G20 Summit met this week and will be remembered for the inclusion of the African Union as a member and for the fact that the West was unable to obtain agreement to produce a joint statement that condemns Russia. Yet the legacy media will continue to spout nonsense about Russia’s isolation. I could sum up the situation on the battlefields as ditto (same as last week) and there have been few developments in Niger as France continues to square up to its former colony without throwing a punch. But the murmurings of a conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia are rumbling away on the borders with Georgia, Iran and Turkey. Putin finally met with Kim Jong-un and annoyed the pants off the West (see photo above). I dare say that the legacy media will roll out the old cliches about dictators - maybe they will compare this with a meeting between Hitler and Mussolini (which may offend Germans and Italians, however). There are signs that things are falling apart in Ukraine; that its army’s strength is ebbing away. Who knows whether the country can survive the winter.

Peace Pipes Anyone?

Anthony Blinken dropped a bombshell on September 11th (an important day for Americans) when he announced that Ukraine should be ready to negotiate with the Russians. The latter, he claimed, are completely intransigent. Of course, it is Ukraine and the West that have been intransigent. But leaving that aside, this is an incredible statement by the US Secretary of State: someone who is entrusted with conveying important political messages. He knows that everyone is paying attention to what he says. He started off sounding sensible and sane but then indulged himself in the usual nonsensical cliches being spouted by US officials since before the SMO began. Negotiations must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, he said. I doubt he really thinks that this is possible but it will sound good to Ukrainians and the Russians will know that this is simply the US playing the game. He also said that the Ukrainians would be the first to engage in negotiations if Russia agreed. I suppose he knows that the Ukrainians have long since introduced a law against negotiating with Russia but choses to ignore this. He will also know that recent Ukrainian proclamations have hardly been dove like. Some, such as the Duran boys, are suggesting that Blinken is seeking a freeze in the conflict so that Ukraine and the West can recover to fight another day. If this is the case, Blinken is being rather naïve, in my view: Russia has absolutely no incentive to freeze the conflict. I think it is possible that the West will now push Ukraine to the negotiating table. French politician, Luc Ferry, has said that in view of the failed Ukraine Offensive, Ukraine should now negotiate. Even British member of the House of Lords, Richard Balfe, said that negotiations between the two countries were inevitable. But of course the real negotiations will be conducted between Russia and the US - everyone knows that. Zelensky may occupy the negotiating chair but sleepy Joe and his minders will be ready to strangle him from behind if he forgets his lines. If the West wants negotiations, and therefore an early end to the war, the legacy media will soon be full of stories such as the above. We will soon find out. But it looks as though the Biden re-election camp, headed by Blinken, has obtained the backing of the Deep State to end the war because its continuation will harm Democrat prospects in the 2024 election. But the Biden administration wants a pause in the war for the election period; rather than an end to it. For Democrats, Donald J is an existential threat that Sleepy Joe will struggle to overcome if he continues to run for election. But if a disastrous and costly war is added to Joe’s difficulties his task will have become Herculean.

Sergei Lavrov, responding to Blinken and others who have called for negotiations, said that Russia would negotiate on Ukraine if the peace proposals met Russia’s interests.

I think it possible that Blinken is trying to provide an off ramp for the Americans and a negotiated settlement at this point will do this for them. But I’d be very surprised to see it happen.

Zelensky’s (not so) Veiled Threat

The Great Z reacted strongly to Blinken’s conciliatory words by reaffirming his opposition to negotiations - ‘while Russia remains on Ukrainian soil’. But he also gave a warning to Europeans in the event that their enthusiasm for providing aid declines. Ukrainians, he said, have been well behaved and grateful up until now but there is no way of knowing how they would react to the West’s abandonment of their country. This would ‘push them into a corner’, he warned. For Z, this was quite an outlandish bite at the hand that feeds him and perceptive European observers will see it for what it is - a threat. This was hoodlum behaviour carried out be an arch hood. Whether he can back it up or not is another thing and I don’t think he would get much support for such an action outside of his own circle. I doubt whether ordinary Ukrainians would react terroristically but there is always the danger that committed Banderites may do so. Similar threats of terrorism have been made by other Ukrainian officials according to b (MoA Sept 11th). I wonder whether Z may have overstepped the mark on this occasion which may provide ammunition to those who want him gone. But his is an empty threat that could undermine support for Ukraine from the EU and the US. There are lots of politicians out there who want an excuse to ditch support for Ukraine. Z could be playing into their hands as if he has a death wish. This interview certainly raises questions about the extent to which Z is a puppet. He could have been told what to say in this interview but my intuition persuades me that this came from a very sad and angry heart. He has been sold down the Swanny and that photo of him at the NATO conference records the precise point in time when he realises this (well, maybe).

Zelensky to Declare War?

Some Ukrainian Telegram channels are repeating a rumour that Z will declare war on Russia. I am not sure what can be gained from this apart from a hope that the West will be forced to escalate. But I don’t think the West has the stomach for it. However, a declaration of war could force Moldova to get involved according to legitimniy. The Moldovan government will probably hesitate to do this and the majority of the population (many of whom are Russia speakers) will be opposed.

Depleted Uranium Shells Safe - According to the IAEA

You can tell the world has really changed (for the worse) when a harmless gas like CO2 - the gas of life - is vilified as some sort of pollutant whereas the International Atomic Energy Agency has given depleted Uranium a clean bill of health, according to this. The mind boggles.

Russian Pariahs

The Western press has long been referring to Russia as a Pariah State and has even called Putin a Pariah, but now that status has been extended to all of Russian citizens: even babies. Yes - Russians are the new Pariahs of the world and any form of racist behaviour towards them is to be welcomed. The EU has set the standard by banning Russian cars and Russian personal belongings from entering its domain, according to Slavyangrad:

The European Commission has confirmed that entry into EU countries with Russian-registered cars is prohibited. It has been reported that personal belongings brought across the border by Russians, such as smartphones, jewelry, laptops, and cosmetics, are also at risk of being detained at customs.

I imagine that if a baby were sucking a dummy while crossing into the EU that would also have to be confiscated. Babies, no matter how innocent, cannot escape the punishment being applied collectively, Nazi style, to the Russian representatives of the Slavic race. Hitler would have been pleased because he regarded the Slavs as untermenschen just like the Jews. Whether or not the EU intends to be racist is debatable but it can’t escape criticism when the outcome of its actions amounts to racism. This is inevitable once politicians start sanctioning persons based on their nationality.

Dmitry Medvedev called the measures racist but would not retaliate in kind to Europeans because that would also be racist. But he did call for a temporary suspension of diplomatic relations with the EU, according to Tass. He reminded the Germans that some of their relatives were racist Nazis. Maria Zakharova made the point that racism: “ …sprung up in the West in very different forms at different historical stages: once in the form of colonialism, once in the form of trade, imperialism, then in the form of Nazism, fascism, segregation…".

The West can’t really say much in its defence can it? There are many other examples of Western racism apart from these. But then no country’s history is totally free from racism; it’s just that Western civilization appears to have taken racism to another level and now, almost as if through guilt, it has turned racism against itself because racism against whites no longer counts as racism (according to Wokists).

(Yes - the above photo shows Grigori Rasputin who attained Pariah status in 1916)

Z to US

Zelensky is to give a speech at the United Nations General Assembly which meets in New York starting on the 18th September. Ukrainian Telegram channel, legitimniy, is suggesting that Z’s main reason for being in New York is to persuade Republicans to back a $20 billion+ package of loans to Ukraine for 2024. They say that the last gasp of the offensive is being timed for his speech. What a way to run a war. It has been confirmed that Z will meet with Biden at some point during his visit.

Ukrainian Morale Sinking?

Someone on legitimniy has written a piece about the growing realisation among Ukrainians that they cannot win the war and have been betrayed by the Ukrainian regime and the West:

The transfer of weapons has slowed down and will soon look like mini handouts. This will not be able to influence the course of the war and the government will be forced to capitulate…Losses in manpower and equipment are growing. On the contrary, the enemy is strengthening. Nobody wants to fight anymore. The morale of society has sunk to the bottom.

I have no idea how widespread such sentiments are but they will not serve newly recruited combatants well. A recent poll conducted by sociological researchers in Ukraine indicates that a massive 78% of Ukrainians believe that Z is responsible for corruption in government and other sections of the administration.

Former Ukrainian Presidential advisor, Oleg Soskin, believes that a revolution against Zelensky could materialise this winter once Russia has destroyed much of the country’s electricity system and water supplies. I imagine that Russia will be hoping for something like that.

Ukraine to go on Defensive?

One Ukrainian Telegram Channel is reporting rumours that the Ukrainian military leadership is not talking about offensive action any more and is preparing to take up defensive positions. This was confirmed by legitimniy. It appears that the Ukrainians are fearful of a Russian takeover of Odessa which would block Ukrainian access to the sea. So they are suggesting that defensive lines will be constructed to protect Odessa. US General Mark Milley has said that the Ukrainians have 45 days in which to make progress before the autumn rains begin to restrict offensive action. So, he appears to think that offensive action will last until then at least. It is noticeable that people like Milley are speaking within a narrative framework in which it is assumed that Ukraine will win one day. Milley is not saying that Ukraine’s offensive will end forever once the rains set in; rather, he holds out the possibility of a resumption of the offensive some time in the future. However, there are some in the legacy media who are more realistic.

Abrams - will they dare send them?

The US military has scrapped a planned upgrade of the Abrams tank admitting deficiencies in its performance on the battlefield due to its excess weight and vulnerability to enemy weapons. I wonder if they will dare send them to Ukraine to suffer the same ignominy as the Leopards and the Challengers.

Ukraine Terror Attacks

Kursk

On the 14th September, a forklift driver was killed at a distillery in the village of Tyotkino by Ukrainian artillery. Later the same day another man was hospitalised after being injured by shell fragments.

Belgorod

On September 9th Ukrainian artillery attacked civilian infrastructure in Belgorod, according to Rybar:

In the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, a power line on the outskirts of the village of Staroselye was damaged, and in the Grayvoronsky urban district, shells hit two private households in Spodaryushino. There were no casualties in both incidents. Emergency services continue to work at the scene....

On the 12th September, the village of Urazovo was attacked by Ukrainian rocket artillery: there were no casualties. On the 14th, the border region of Belgorod was attacked by 140 projectiles launched from MLRS systems in 24 hours. Buildings were damaged but there were no casualties.

Donetsk

Different districts of the Donetsk agglomeration were attacked on the 9th September causing damage to residential buildings, killing one and injuring four. Attacks are made every day in Donetsk; the people are never free from the fear of an artillery or cluster bomb attack. The 11th of September was typical with a residential building damaged along with a kindergarten, gas pipelines and overhead power cables. Two people were injured, according to Rybar. On the 12th, one person was killed and at least three people were injured from ‘canon and rocket artillery’, according to Rybar. Many residential buildings were damaged. On the 14th September a shuttle bus was hit by Ukrainian artillery, injuring two people.

Kherson

On September 9th, the Ukrainians stepped up their attacks on civilian targets in Kherson region, launching around 100 units of ammunition every day. The Ukrainians shelled the city of Novaya Kakhovka on September 11th causing damage to water supplies and depriving the city of electricity. No casualties were reported. Ukrainian missiles attacked Nova Khakovka again on the 15th September, killing at least three people.

The Sea War

Crimea

On 9th September, the Ukrainians continued with their attacks on the Crimean shore and they continued to get hammered, according to Rybar. Six boats took part in a raid aimed at Cape Tarkhankut which was accompanied by drone attacks. Three boats were sunk along with their crews while the rest fled. Overnight on September 10th, according to the Russian MoD:

This night, in the western part of the Black Sea water area, northeast of Zmeiny (Snake) Island, naval aviation aircraft of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed three US-made Willard Sea Force high-speed military boats with landing groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, traveling in the direction of the Crimean coast.

Then, on the 14th September an unmanned boat attempted to attack a missile hovercraft of the Black Sea fleet but was destroyed.

The Air War

Russian Missile/Drone Attacks

On September 9th, Ukraine media was full of reports about air raid alerts in Kiev, Poltava, Sumy and Chernihiv with explosions reported in the latter two - according to Tass. On the 10th September Russian drones attacked Kiev:

Tonight, kamikaze drones "Geran" destroyed a military arsenal in the Rakitnyansky district of the Kyiv region, NASA satellites recorded more than ten sources of fire in the territory of ammunition depots after 3 am.

This came from a Russian source but has not been confirmed by the Russian MoD. On the night of September 12th, the Russians attacked Reni, Bolgrad and Ismail in Odessa region with Geran drones - according to Slavyangrad. Telegram channels are full of pictures showing the many fires created by these attacks. Port facilities and supply depots in Izmail and Reni were attacked by Geran drones again on the 14th September.

On the 15th September, Geran drones were on the wing again over Khmelnitsky in the West of Ukraine, targeting Starokonstantinov where the military airfield is located. Russia will be seeking to eliminate the SU24s employed to launch Stormshadows at Crimean shipyards along with the bases they fly from. A Ukrainian source confirmed the attack on the airfield and claimed to have shot down 17 drones.

Ukrainian Missile/Drone Strikes

Kursk

Two drones were shot down over Kursk overnight on 12th September: there were no casualties according to Slavyangrad.

Crimea

On September 10th, 8 drones were shot down over the Black Sea close to Crimea - according to Sputnik. On September 13th the Ukrainians managed a successful missile strike on the port at Sevastopol setting the shipyard on fire. Ten missiles and three drones were launched but only three of the missiles got through causing damage to two vessels undergoing repair in dry dock and injuring 24 people, according to Tass which claims that the landing ship and a diesel submarine damaged are capable of being repaired. I expect Russia will be increasing its air defence in the light of this but no air defence system can stop every missile - especially when so many are launched at once. Russia will also be targeting (hunting) the Ukrainian air force since the missiles (thought to be Stormshadows) were launched from the air by SU24s. Early on the 14th September, 11 drones along with 5 unmanned boats were launched at the Crimean coast near the city of Evpatoria (on the West coast, north of Sevastopol). All of the devices were destroyed - according to RT.

Belgorod

On 11th September, in the early hours of the morning, two drones were shot down over Belgorod region. No casualties nor damage has been reported. On the 13th, an ‘aircraft like’ drone was shot down over Tulyanka. It caused neither damage nor casualties.

Bryansk

Ukrainian drones targeted the Druzhba oil pipeline on September 10th but were destroyed by air defences. Overnight on 13th/14th September a number of drones were shot down. No casualties were reported.

Oryol

On September 10th a drone was disabled by electronic means over the village of Somovo in Oryol (Russia). There were no casualties and no destruction.

Zaporizhzhe

Two Ukrainian drones attacked the city of Energodar in the Zaporozhye region on September 11, according to Alexey Likhachev, head of the Russian State Nuclear corporation. Both drones were downed, according to Sputnik.

The Ground War

At Waterloo, the Duke of Wellington is supposed to have said of the French attacks: ‘they came on in the same old way and we sent them back in the same old way’. And that appears to be what is happening on most sections of the front. I have the distinct impression of being repetitive in my reports which has to do with events themselves rather than the way I represent them.

Russian Forces

According to the Main Intelligence Directorate (whatever that is) the Russians have the following forces in Ukraine:

▪️420,000 personnel (excluding the Russian Guard, special forces, etc.);
▪️2260 tanks (15-20% T-54/62 tanks);
▪️5260 BBM;
▪️3050 artillery systems;
▪️920 MLRS;
▪️46 OTRK;
▪️360 aircraft;
▪️320 helicopters;
▪️64 ships/boats;
▪️5 submarines.

Wow!

The Fronts

Report from Рамзай (TG) on the Ukrainian offensive:

Along the entire front line, there are signs that the Ukrainian offensive is running out of steam, losing its organization and disintegrating into a scattering of local fierce battles that do not have a common plan. And, although the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces continues to throw its troops into daily attacks, the actions of Ukrainian commanders are becoming more and more stereotyped and senseless desperation.

This summary of the situation appears to support speculation that the Ukrainians may soon shift to the defensive. Other commentators are reporting a reduction in the intensity of Ukrainian attacks. According to Putin, the Ukrainians have lost 71,000 men killed since their offensive began on June 4th.

Zaporizhzhe (Rabotino/Orkehov)

This map sums up Ukraine’s position quite graphically (thanks to ISW for this) and explains the rumours we have heard about Ukraine going on the defensive. According to Boris Rozhin, reporting on the 11th September, all the Ukrainian attacks in the ‘pocket’ between Rabotino and Verbovoye have been repelled with heavy Ukrainian losses. The Russians occupy high ground here while the Ukrainians are in lowlands. For most of the week, Rabotino itself was in the grey zone. By mid-week the Ukrainians were regrouping and preparing for another attack, according to Rozhin who continued to report a slowdown in Ukrainian offensive action. On the 15th September, the Russians withdrew from the southern outskirts of Rabotino to defensive positions in the forest belt, according to the Military Chronicle.

Kupyansk-Svatavo

The Russians continue to take settlements in this direction but they have been slowed down by an influx of Ukrainian reinforcements - according to Boris Rozhin. The Russians are attacking the villages of Sinkovka, and Petropavlivka and in the direction of Kislovka - but progress is slow.

Vremyevsky Section

By the 11th September this area had been stabilized with no prospect of a breakthrough by Ukrainian forces which appear to be ‘bogged down’. However, unsuccessful attacks on Novodonetsk and Novomayorskoye continued throughout the week.

Artyomovsk (Bakhmut)Direction

According to Boris Rozhin on September 11th:

Our troops continued to repel another onslaught on the #Kleshcheyevka - #Andreyevka - #Kurdyumovka line south of the city…Fighting continued in the southern part of #Kleshcheyevka, where the AFU again climbed from the plantings.
Our troops are regularly counterattacking, trying to drive the enemy out of the settlement and adjacent forest plantations.

Rozhin believes that the Ukrainians will attempt to capture Kleshcheyevka before the autumn rains begin. But on the 13th September the Russians counter-attacked and by the end of the day the settlement was in the grey zone. On the 14th September, the Military Chronicle reported that a Russian counter-attack has pushed the Ukrainians out of Kleshcheyevka and Andreyevka. Some reports from Ukrainian sources claimed that some of the latter village had been taken back on the 15th but Russian sources refuted this claim. So - who knows?

Kherson

The Ukrainians continued their attacks on islands in the river this week. On the 9th September, the 126th Terrestrial Defense Brigade of the AFU Armed Forces carried out the removal of the wounded and killed from Kozatsky Island after a suicidal sortie a couple of days ago. The Ukrainians are preparing for further attacks by the Omaha group and the Thunder group. The former name is a little unfortunate since the Americans lost many men at Omaha beach on D-Day. Thunder was one of the passwords used by the Americans on that day.

The Economic War

Germany

The German Construction industry is on the verge of collapse due in part to high energy costs, according to the housing giant Volovia. The industry accounts for 12% of Germany’s GDP and employs one million workers. Cheap Russian energy would help!

Russia

Meanwhile in Russia, sales of oil and gas have recovered to the levels achieved prior to the SMO/sanctions. The economy is surging and growth is expected to exceed expectations. Furthermore, the budget deficit is expected to be lower than expected. So - there’s no sign of the collapse much willed and wished for by the West. Alexander Mercouris is more eloquent than I when talking about such things: see this section of his broadcast.

Grain To The Poor

Russia is implementing its plan to provide grain free of charge to poor countries, according to Tass.

World Politics

Putin at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) - Vladivostok

Putin spoke at this Russian event advising his audience that his government is committed to developing the far eastern part of Russia. Tass provides a short article on the Forum here . Putin used the opportunity to criticise the West and promote the emerging Multi-Polar World Order. In his speech at the plenary session on September 11th, he said: “some countries, primarily Western nations, are destroying the system of financial, trade, and economic relations with their own hands.” RT provides extensive coverage of the Forum here.

Kim Jong-un Visits Putin

On September 10th Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s president, began his journey to meet with Vladimir Putin somewhere in the far east. The pair eventually met at the Vostochny Spaceport (Amur Region) on September 13 (see above) - according to Tass. When interviewed Kim Jong-un said:

Russia has risen for a sacred fight to protect its national sovereignty and safety against hegemonic forces…We will always stand together [with Russia] against imperialism.

The two had a private meeting. which will remain private apparently, and they negotiated on something for an hour.

At the end of their meeting Kim Jong-un said:

Comrade Putin and I just discussed in depth the military-political situation on the Korean Peninsula and in Europe and came to a satisfactory consensus on further strengthening strategic and tactical cooperation, supporting solidarity in the struggle for the protection of the sovereign right of security, for creating guarantees of lasting peace in the region, and throughout the world.

Some have seen the meeting as heralding a revival of the cold war alliance between the two countries. Putin agreed to go to North Korea at some point after an invitation from Kim.

G20

Two very important matters were discussed at the G20 that are relevant to the Emerging Multi-Polar World Order (MPWO). The first relates to Western efforts to obtain agreement for a joint statement condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Ten years ago, this would have been easy to achieve, but not now. Instead, the final declaration stated that the G20 countries would: ‘welcome all relevant and constructive initiatives that support a comprehensive, just, and durable peace in Ukraine’. The statement also recognised that there were ‘different views and assessments of the situation (in Ukraine)’ between member countries.

The second important matter relating to the MPWO was the eventual acceptance of the African Union into the G20. There was also some criticism of the West’s extreme policies on reducing carbon emissions - which would have been welcomed by emerging economies that have been devastated by these policies - and the EU made itself look foolish in Scrooge like fashion by criticizing Russia for providing free grain to Africa.

Lavrov’s summary of the conference is here, for those who want to know more.

Africa

Niger

Niger’s coup leaders have cancelled a military pact with their southern neighbour, Benin, which, they say, violated an agreement by allowing France to deploy troops on its territory - according to RT.

Gabon

Following the coup in Gabon, the French government has said that it will cooperate with the new regime. In an effort to explain the difference French responses to the Niger and Gabon’s coups, a French spokesman said:

We cannot equate the situation in Niger, where illegitimate soldiers deposed a legitimately elected president, with that of Gabon, where the motive put forward by the military is precisely the non-compliance with the electoral law and the constitution. Because in fact, and I weigh my words, there are doubts about the sincerity of the elections in this country.

I said last week that the coup leaders did not appear to be anti-French and this appears to confirm it.

Nigeria

Civil unrest continues in Nigeria as a consequence of the withdrawal of fuel subsidies, among other things. Strikers protested against the loss of subsidies while ‘unknown’ gangs clashed with law enforcement agencies on 11th September.

That’s it for this week. Many thanks for your views, likes and kind comments. You are receiving this early because I am going camping (in the rain) over the weekend. I don’t know whether I’ll have access to the internet so I may be slow in replying to any comments.

Best Wishes

Rob