Last week I may have been too optimistic after the populist right (National Rally) polled well in the first round of voting in France. I was aware that Marine Le Pen was against funding Ukraine so was hoping she would do well in the second round. However, for reasons too complicated to relate as part of an introduction, she ended up in third place behind a last ditch scrambled together ‘hard left’ alliance. Jean-Luc Melenchon’s left wing ‘Popular Front’ topped the polls with Macron in second and Le Pen third. ‘A week is a long time in politics’, someone once said and a truer phrase was never uttered. It appears that Melenchon himself is against funding Ukraine but it is totally unclear what policies will be adopted by whichever group ends up ‘governing’ France - if, indeed, it is possible to govern France under current circumstances.
In the UK, Keir Starmer, has announced that his number one priority is not the failed NHS, rampant migration or child poverty. No - Starmer’s number one priority is - Ukraine. I suspect Israel is a close second.
In the US, Sleepy Joe Biden’s attempts at reassuring the public that he is fit for office are not going well. I expect people are tiring of the story by now but all of us will be wondering whether the Democrats will keep him ‘on the ticket’ or not. The tug of war will no doubt continue for some time yet.
The horror of the Middle East continues but escalation into Lebanon has not yet materialised while the Houthi’s successes in the Red Sea continue.
The NATO summit, defying logic, took the view that the more weapons that can be supplied to Ukraine; the quicker the conflict will be over. That’s tantamount to saying that the faster you pour gasoline onto a fire; the quicker it will be extinguished. The once great Z did not come away empty handed but gave some strange press interviews where he appeared to say that he wants to convene another peace conference soon with Russia present AND that he is willing to make territorial concessions - Strange! Has someone given him a new script, I wonder. Or did he manage to evade his minders and speak out of turn? He must know that this will not go down well with the NAZIS in Ukraine.
On the battlefronts, the Russian offensive continues as village after village has been taken and the Ukrainian army shudders at the onslaught, buckles under the strain but has not broken. Annoying ‘click bait’ headlines heralding a Ukrainian collapse are appearing among the ‘Usual Suspects’ on YouTube. Russian progress, though not spectacular, has been consistent and Ukrainian casualties average upwards of 2,000 a day. This is monstrous, I know but has become the norm. Another casualties record was broken this week at 14,070.
Flying the Russian Flag is ‘Justifying Genocide’
A Latvian court, in a fit of extreme Wokeness, sentenced Russian-speaking activist Elena Kreile to 3 years in prison for hanging a Russian flag in a window - she was accused of “justifying genocide” - according to Slavyangrad. I wonder if the courts would do the same for Israeli flags?
Russian POW Murdered By Mercenaries - Zakharova
The NYT recently carried a story reporting the cold blooded killing of a defenceless Russian POW by foreign mercenaries. The prisoner had asked for medical assistance. Maria Zakharova had this to say about the incident and the legacy media’s failure to report on Ukraine’s war crimes for more than a decade:
You know, it is ridiculous to see American journalists, newspapers, TV and online platforms pretending not to know about the abuses the Donbass population, now citizens of new Russian regions, is being subjected to by the Kiev regime. Or that they do not know about the tortures of those who got in their clutches, the clutches of Ukraine’s armed forces, nationalist battalions, etc.
Ukraine Violates Chemical Weapons Convention
According to the Russian MoD, Ukraine has been producing hydrogen cyanide in contravention of the Chemical Weapons Convention. The chemical was produced in a laboratory in Avdeevka. In May of this year, civilians in Avdeevka showed signs of poisoning consistent with what would be expected from hydrogen cyanide. You can read more at RT.
This is not the first report I have seen claiming that Ukraine is using chemical weapons. Another, report suggests that Ukraine has used phosgene against Russian soldiers in Kherson. Phosgene has a suffocating effect and was used in World War 1.
Ukraine’s Destroyed Energy System a Blessing (Greens)
The ‘pseudo-environmentalists’ at the Washington Post view the destruction of Ukraine’s energy system as a positive development that will enable the country to go Green. Some will be sceptical that solar panels and windmills will be able to cater for the energy needs of a country that is extremely cold in winter and extremely warm in summer. You can read more here.
Ukraine - Poland Defence Agreement
Tusk and Zelensky have signed a defence agreement and will attempt to figure out a way in which Poland can destroy Russian missile that are headed in the direction of Poland. Ukrainian civilians living in Poland could form a ‘volunteer’ Ukraine Legion operating from Polish soil in order to do this. Sounds risky to me. Florian Philippot, leader of the French Patriot Party, called it ‘going to war'. Ekaterina Blinova, writing for Sputnik, believes that this a scam designed to get recalcitrant Ukrainians to fight. Poland will also be transferring 20 MIG-29 aircraft to Ukraine. In a press interview, Poland's National Defense Minister, Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysh, said that no Russian missiles would be shot down without NATO’s consent.
Latvian ‘Fascists’
The Latvian state recently introduced a law that allows doctors to deny treatment to anyone who cannot speak the state language. It just so happens that many elderly people in Latvia cannot speak Latvian and are too old to learn - so these people are being denied medical treatment. Such inhumane treatment of people is reminiscent of the way the Nazis treated the Jews and others. You can read more here if you have Telegram.
Stefanchuk Becomes A Yank
Ruslan Stefanchuk, speaker of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and last legitimate leader of the country, will soon receive American citizenship - according to Lord of War. He and his family will get passports in October - not sure if there is any significance in that!
F-16s On Their Way
Anthony Blinken has announced that dozens of F-16s are ‘on their way’ to Ukraine - which means that they are probably already there. But I doubt whether they will arrive in the numbers wanted by the once great Z - i.e. 128.
Drone Warfare
The role of drones in this conflict has been revolutionary in the same way as the machine gun was in the 1st World War and the tank and airplane were in the Second. Indeed, the drone has actually forced radical changes in tank warfare and even in the tank itself - which has had to suffer aesthetically in order to protest itself. The tank survivors on the Ukrainian battlefronts can no longer match the beauty of a Tiger or Panther.
To place the role of the drone in perspective, it must be appreciated that (according to Rybar) there are as many drones in the combat areas as there are people: that’s a lot of drones. I have seen some battlefield reports highlighting Ukrainian drone dominance in one sector of the front and others highlighting Russian drone dominance in another sector, though it appears to be accepted by both sides that Russia is dominant (overall) both in drones and in the field of Electronic Warfare (EW).
Drones, along with satellites, deny armies the ability to move without being detected. In past wars, military units have always been subjected to surveillance of sorts but never to this degree. Therefore, building up military forces and the materiel they need is problematic. If your enemy has almost total control of the air, this process can become a very risky and bloody affair - as the Ukrainian army well knows.
The killing of civilians on a beach in Crimea last month (whether intended or not) has resulted in a change in drone warfare in that area, since Russia is no longer willing to accept that the West can employ surveillance drones (e.g. The Global Hawk - RQ4B) to assist in missile attacks that kill its people - which is not unreasonable. It appears that drones have not been employed for this purpose by the West following a warning from Russia’s Defence Minister to the Americans. This warning, according to John Helmer, may have been followed by turbulence ‘attacks’ on the drones causing them to become unstable and persuading their operators to withdraw them. The surveillance role has now fallen to the RAF - apparently - in manned (rather than unmanned) aircraft. This change certainly increases the risk of unintentional clashes between the two sides. It also reduces the quality of surveillance since manned aircraft do not have the flexibility and endurance of drones.
Two pieces of legislation apply to this situation: Article 88 UN Convention On The Law Of The Sea (1982) and the 1958 Geneva Convention On the High Seas. This legislation allows freedom of movement in international waters in peacetime but does not allow movement that would jeopardise the security of a nation state. Russia can easily claim that this is the case with regard to the Western use of drones in the Black Sea - this could also apply to the RAF Typhoons.
This is an interesting development worthy of some attention. Marat Khairullin writes about it briefly here and John Helmer explores the issue in depth here.
This is becoming a game of ‘chicken’ in which the future of humanity is being gambled.
Anti-War Partisans Romania
Hankster of the MOA (July 8th Ukraine thread, post 413) reports on four incidents which could have involved partisan activity in Romania. One attack was directed at a freight train containing drones, shells and missiles while another attacked a warehouse containing weapons and equipment earmarked for Ukraine. According to Hankster, the anti-war movement is spreading to Poland and Moldova. You can read more here.
Ukrainian ‘Partisans’
Some Ukrainian channels are reporting that more than 30 TPP vehicles have been burned over the past month. Though not a great deal, the trend is definitely upwards. Another report from July 10th, revealed that four military vehicles had been burned in Lviv, Odessa and Rivne. Bottles of kerosene are being used.
Ukraine/US Terror Attacks (i.e. those that target civilians)
5th/6th July
Overnight, a gas station in the village of Kirovsky (Donetsk) was attacked causing damage and some casualties. A HIMARS missile attack on Volnovakha killed two and injured at least another four. Belgorod inevitably came under attack from shelling and drones causing damage to agricultural enterprises and energy facilities but causing only two casualties. Kursk suffered damage to cars and an oil facility but suffered only one casualty. The DPR, as usual, suffered the greatest number of casualties with five killed and 26 wounded from US directed HIMARS strikes.
Overnight, according to the Russian MoD, 14 drones were destroyed over the Krasnodar territory (see Sea War below), 26 over the Zaporozhye region and 10 over the Rostov region.
Infrastructure targets close to the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power plant were hit causing temporary power outages.
6th/7th July
According to the Military Chronicle, several drones were shot down over Voronezh region overnight but fragments from one hit a warehouse causing a fire which has been extinguished. On the evening of the 6th, several drones were shot down in Belgorod region. Many villages in Belgorod and Kursk were attacked by drones and shelling overnight damaging agricultural equipment, houses and cars. In Belgorod city, six houses were completely destroyed by repeated drone attacks. In Kursk, a man was injured following a drone attack on his lorry. Two houses were damaged by drones in Bryansk but there were no casualties. In Gorlovka and Donetsk a total of 20 people were injured by drones.
7th/8th July
Overnight, many villages in Belgorod came under attack from shelling and drones which damaged cars, dwellings and a combine harvester Three civilians were injured according to a later report. Kursk suffered similarly but no casualties were reported. The DPR was less fortunate, suffering 4 casualties. HIMARS missiles were launched at Melitopol according to this report which does not mention damage or casualties.
8th/9th July
Belgorod city suffered a large attack overnight causing damage to cars, dwellings and economic facilities. According to Belgorod’s governor 4 people were killed and 20 injured:
17 people remain in hospitals, two in serious condition. 160 apartments, 60 private houses, 140 cars were also damaged - we will try to start all restoration work as quickly as possible.
Aircraft - type drones also attacked Kursk (injuring one person), Rostov, Voronezh and Volgograd regions. In the DPR, three people were injured by shelling and drones.
9th/10th July
Many villages in Belgorod suffered shelling and ‘drone drops’ on cars which injured two civilians. Kursk suffered similarly but no casualties were reported. A total of 27 drones were disabled in the border regions by small arms fire or EW. Two civilians were injured by shelling in the DPR. According to another report, cluster shelling damaged around 20 cars and several apartment buildings in the DPR. Seven people were injured and one man was killed by shrapnel.
10th/11th July Overnight
Aircraft-type drones were shot down over Bryansk, Tambov, Tula and Moscow regions overnight. In Belgorod, shelling killed 5 people and injured another 8, according to the Two Majors. Kursk suffered shelling and drone attacks but no casualties. Eleven drones were suppressed by EW in the border regions. Meanwhile, in the DPR, two civilians were injured by shelling.
11th/12th July
On the 11th July, the Ukrainians dropped explosions from a drone onto a children’s playground in Shebekino (Belgorod) injuring 5 children, two of whom are in a serious condition.. Unbelievable: a children’s playground! Twelve people suffered injuries from shelling/drone attack on that day in the Belgorod region. Bryansk and Kursk regions also came under attack from drones and shelling causing much damage but no casualties. 10 drones were disabled in the border regions by small arms fire and drones. In the DPR, five civilians were injured and one killed by drones and shelling. Drones also attacked Tula region but no casualties were reported.
The Sea War
5th/6th July
The west coast of Crimea was attacked overnight by air launched missiles - probably Stormshadows - while oil infrastructure in Krasnador was attacked by drones near the coast of the Azov Sea. Three Neptune anti-ship missiles were launched from Zaporozhye region towards Crimea. Two were shot down while the other went off course (due to air defences maybe) and hit a residential building. 20 drones were launched against Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar near the coast. Most were shot down but one hit an electricity substation.
This was the only attack on Crimea I have seen all week which could be due to the absence of surveillance drones though I am sure other factors could account for it. Time will tell.
The Air War (Map)
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
5th/6th July
According to the Military Chronicle:
At night, strikes were carried out "Geraniums" on objects in Kremenchuk, Poltava region, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk region. there was also a blow to Sumy and the Sumykhimprom plant.
The airfields at Mirgorod and Voznesensk were attacked with missiles. Odessa, including the port city of Yuzhny, also came under attack.
6th/7th July Overnight
Geraniums and missiles attacked targets in Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Poltava and Pavlograd overnight. It is claimed that two Patriot launchers were destroyed in Odessa - according to Tass.
7th/8th July Overnight
Zhitomir, Chernigov, Kiev and Sumy regions were all attacked overnight by Tu-95Ms which then withdrew to the Caspian Sea. According to Slavyangrad there were three directions of attack:
The northern group is in the vicinity of Kiev and Zhitomir, the central group is in the vicinity of Kirovograd and Krivoy Rog, and the southern group is heading toward Nikolaev/Odessa. In parallel, Iskander and Kalibr-NK/PLV ballistic missiles are being fired.
According to this report, three Kinzhal missiles hit Kiev where the airfield at Zhulyany may have been hit. Aviatorskoye airport in Dnepropetrovsk, one of the largest in Ukraine, was also hit. Local residents reported ‘powerful explosions’.
Novokramatorsk Machine-Building Plant at Kramatorsk was also hit.
You can see some footage of the destruction in Kiev here - if you have Telegram. If you want a more detailed account of the attacks, which, unusually, occurred in day time, you could check out effervescent Ozzie, Willy OAM - here (first ten mins).
The Ukrainians have accused Russia of attacking a hospital in Kiev which you may have heard about. It is also possible that the hospital was hit by Ukraine’s air defence. Personally, I don’t think it possible that Russia would deliberately attack a hospital. What on earth would they seek to gain by doing so. The Two Majors provides a refutation here and Ukrainian channel legitimniy provides a refutation here. I should say that the people at legitimniy are not fans of Z and his regime. If you would like a more detailed refutation, Larry Johnson does a good job here.
Ukraine, on the other hand, is targeting civilians every single day and is using the alleged Russian attack to target hospitals in Russia by way of revenge.
8th/9th July
According to the Two Majors:
KrivoyRog (the administrative building of the Northern Mining and Processing Plant of the Metinvest Group) and Dnepropetrovsk), near the airfields of Ozerny in the Zhitomir region and Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnitsky region, Voznesensk in the Nikolayev region and Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) on the AFU-occupied territory of the DPR.
Ukrainian Air defences were attacked in Ilyichevsk (Odessa) along with Mirgorod airfield in Poltava. One report suggested that a fire was burning at the airport or close to it well into the night. According to Julian Roepcke, a military expert at BILD, the Artem ammunition factory in Kiev was attacked by around five missiles which the air defences were unable to intercept. This shows how weak Ukraine’s air defences have become. Roepcke believes that there will be no electricity and no heat in Ukraine this winter.
9th/10th July
Overnight, the Russian hit Ukrainian rear facilities in the Vinnitsa, Rovno, Khmelnitsky and Odessa regions.
10th/11th July
Russian missiles attacked drone/ammunition warehouses in Voznesensk (Nikolaev) where, it is reported, many NATO personnel were in residence.
11th/12th July
Several explosion were heard at Starokonstantinov airport overnight. Kiev region, as well as Odessa, Zhitomir, Vinnitsa, Cherkassy, Chernigov regions also came under attack..
Ukrainian Missile/Drone Attacks
5th/6th July
According to the Military Chronicle:
At night, fuel depots in the village of Pavlovskaya and Leningradskaya, Krasnodar Territory, were attacked. In Yeysk, the antenna of a cell tower was damaged by the wreckage of the UAV.
A drone attack on Krasnodor killed a young girl and injured six.
8th/9th July
An electricity sub-station was damaged in Rostov and an oil depot in Kalach-on-Don, according to the Two Majors. You can see footage of the blazing oil depot here.
The Ground War
The Fronts
Front Line Cats
Russian MoD Reports
This week the Russian MoD reported 55,295 Ukrainian casualties for June and 211,195 since the beginning of the year.
w/e 21st June 13,710 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 452.
w/e 28th June 13,820 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 474.
w/e 5th July 13,525 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 418.
w/e July 12th 14,070 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 495.
This week broke previous records for casualties and equipment losses.
Kharkov
Volchansk - Detail
On July 7th, the Russians broke into the village of Peschanoye, according to Slavyangrad. On the 10th July, fierce fighting continued in Globokoye and Volchansk where the Ukrainians have deployed large quantities of FPV drones. Later in the week, the Ukrainians counter attacked at least three times in the areas around Tikhoye, Volchansk, Liptsy, and Glubokoye using infantry supported by drones and artillery. These troops are being pummeled by FABs and artillery and are suffering heavy losses. On July 11th, Dima reported that the Ukrainians are retreating from Volchansk. This was confirmed by the Military Chronicle.
Kupyansk
The Russians have broken through to the Zherebets and Oskol rivers south of Kupyansk. On July 11th, according to the Two Majors:
the Russian Army expanded the zones of control near Terny, Makeyevka (LPR) and Sinkivka. The enemy is slowly but surely retreating to more advantageous positions for further organisation of sustainable defence. The fighting is of a local nature, there is no talk of deep breakthroughs in the AFU defence, although there is some weariness of the enemy troops on this front section.
Chasov Yar
Fighting continued in the area of Kalinovka on July 10th. On the 11th July, according to the Two Majors:
In ChasovYar direction, there are battles to the north near Kalinovka (Kalinovo) for access to the Seversky Donets - Donbass Canal, the advance of our troops is noted.
Toretsk-Gorlovka
On July 10th, the Russians were advancing through the centre of Nyu York. On the 11th July, according to the Two Majors:
In the area of Toretsk, the RFAF continue to break through the enemy defences. There is an advance near NyuYork (Novgorodskoye), which is turning into ruins under the constant strikes of FABs, and the zone of control has been expanded near Yuzhnoye (Pivdennoye) and Kirovo.
By the 12th July, the Ukrainians had been pushed to the western outskirts of Nyu York.
Avdeevka - North - Ocheretine
Avdeevka - West
On July 10th, heavy fighting continued east of Lozovatskoye, in Yevgenovka and on the outskirts of Novosyolovka1st. Northwest of Novosyolovka1st, Russian troops continue to press in the direction of the road, which was about 900 m away at this time. On July 10th, the Russians captured the village of Yasnobodrovka which will make it possible to reach the Karlovskoye reservoir from the north and threaten Karlovka. Yevgenovka was captured on the 10th July and Voskhod was captured on the 11th July.
Krasnogorivka
According to Dima, on July 11th, Krasnogorivka is close to collapse.
Ugledar
According to the Two Majors on July 10th:
In the Ugledar Direction, near the village of Konstantinovka, the RFAF, with motorised rifle units supported by armoured vehicles, attempted to break through the defence of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade. The AFU fighters managed to repel the attack, knocking out/destroying the T-90M, T-80BV M, MTLB and BMP-3 of the Russian troops.
Zaporozhye
Localised fighting continues here without significant changes.
Kherson
The battle for the islands continues here with mutual shelling but no advances..
The Economic War
Russia and Iran Merge Payment Systems
Moscow and Tehran have agreed to merge payment systems, further linking Russia's MIR and Iran's Shetab banking systems.
World Politics
Masoud Pezeshkian New President of Iran
Masoud, who is widely regarded as a reformist, received 53% of the vote from around 50% of the electorate. You can read more at Colonel Classad.
Biden Dumps Biden
In an interview designed to reassure his supporters after his humiliation in front of Trump (and the whole World), Biden boasted about his role in expanding NATO eastward (which caused the current disaster in Ukraine) and of halting Putin (who has hardly been halted). The net result of his meddling is that Putin and Russia are stronger than ever while Europe is being de-industrialised, the US de-dollarised and the World is on the brink of World War Three. He also boasted that he is running this World - whereas in fact his demented mind is actually running from the world. Only divine intervention will make him stand down, so he says. The World responded Thus:
Democrats Dump Biden
Leading Democrat Senator Peter Welch, along with Chuck Schumer, want Joe to go for the sake of the country. US ‘House’ minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries is said to have been asked by colleagues to have a word with Biden to relay the concerns of Democrats, according to Sputnik.
Disney Dumps Biden
Abigail Disney has said that the company will not provide funds to the Democrats until Biden is gone. She also said that if Biden stays, the Democrats would lose - which would be terrifying. It is said that the Democrats are no longer discussing whether or not Biden should go but are discussing only the ways in which he can be removed.
Businessmen Dump Biden
A group of businessmen and donors to the Democratic Party have asked Biden to stand down, according to the Washington Post - reported by the Two Majors.
Lula Dumps Biden
President of Brazil, Lula Da Silva, has publicly announced that Biden ‘has a problem’ and should exit the race so that the Democrats can win.
European Officials Dump Biden
European leaders, according to Bloomberg, have witnessed Biden’s deterioration in public and private over many months and want him to stand down.
Reed Hastings Dumps Biden
Reed Hastings, Netflix founder and the Democrats’ donor in chief has asked Biden to step down and allow a ‘more vigorous’ leader to beat Trump.
George Clooney Dumps Biden
Clooney, who is obviously a fan of Biden, said that he has won many battles but he can’t win the battle against time - so should stand down. You can read more at Sputnik.
Zelensky Dumps Biden
Zero Hedge is reporting that the once great Z himself is concerned about Biden’s health after watching the debate. ‘Let’s be candid and frank: everyone is waiting for November’, he said.
Who is the Greatest Threat to World Peace? No, not Biden
The legacy media has frequently demonised so called ‘authoritarian’ leaders such as Putin and Xi Jinping - but a recent poll of Germans suggests that the real danger is none other than that infamous past philanderer and future Fuhrer, Donald J Trump.
Wise Westerners - MEP Maximilian Krah (AfD)
Krah suggested that there is an international ruling stating that when a country loses 30% or more of its population capable of military service (which Ukraine has done) it cannot win a war. Forcing conscription on those who remain is bound to be unpopular therefore support for the war will inevitably decline - which appears to be happening already. Krah doesn’t expect anything to change until after the US elections in November.
Orban-Putin
Viktor Orban has been subject to much criticism from European leaders such as Scholz and Borrel for his Moscow visit - though many see him as a hero. You don’t have a mandate to represent the EU, they said - but Orban suggested that he has no need of a mandate to discuss peace - which sounds reasonable to me. The Ukrainians have done more that criticise him for his visit: they have placed him on their kill list.
Orban has called for a ceasefire which does not suit either side - while Putin made it clear that he wants a ‘complete and final resolution’ because a pause would allow Ukraine to rearm.
The two leaders agreed to improve relations/cooperation between their countries and Orban gave a commitment to ‘fight for peace’ in Ukraine during his six month tenure as ‘president’ of the EU. Europe needs peace, he said, because the conflict is destroying economies.
In an article for Swiss magazine Die Weltwoche, Orban wrote:
My friends, it feels like the war train has no brakes and the driver has lost his mind. We must apply the emergency brake so that at least those who want to can get off the train and not participate in the war.
He also said that he wanted to make Hungary an ‘island of peace’. You can read part of his article here. Orban called his peace mission a ‘Christian Duty’ which contrasts with the bureaucratic approach to the conflict taken by the EU/European leadership.
With regard to NATO, he said:
It is worth remembering that the most successful military alliance in world history started as a peace project and its future success depends on its ability to maintain peace. But today, instead of peace, the agenda is the pursuit of war: instead of defense, it is offense. All this runs counter to NATO’s founding values.
On the EU, Orban had this to say:
We don’t want a European empire, we don’t want a European U.S, we don’t want a gray mass controlled from Brussels, we don’t want a command-and-control system. We want national sovereignty and independence under our own national flags -
Thank you Viktor: rational voices are badly needed.
Orban-Xi
Orban has enraged EU leaders with his unannounced visit to China. He published the above photo on social media with the caption ‘Peace Mission 3. Beijing’. The Chinese were surprised by the visit but welcomed it. Xi and Orban discussed matters of mutual interest. Orban ‘tweeted’ that he came to China because it is a ‘key power in creating conditions for peace in the Russia/Ukraine war'.
Orban-Trump
Following the NATO Summit, Orban also visited Donald J at Mara-a-lago, which was a bit of a slap in the face to Biden but Trump wants peace, sleepy Joe does not. After the meeting, Orban said that they had ‘discussed ways to make peace' and is confident that Trump’s ‘going to solve it’.
The intrepid Orban’s efforts were not appreciated by EU leaders who have administered a ‘slap on the wrist’ - according to Tass. Naughty boy!
Bulgaria Will Call For Peace at NATO Summit
Bulgarian Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev said that at the NATO summit Sofia will propose starting peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. He will propose that Bulgaria act as mediator. I wonder whether Dimitar is acting on instructions from the West?
Annalena Cancelled
Hungary is fast becoming a ‘peacemongering’ hero of this drama by sticking two fingers up to the EU. Annalena, of ‘360 degrees’ fame was ordered to Budapest to ask Foreign Minister Szijarto to explain the ‘untimeliness’ of Orban’s visit to Moscow. To avoid this unwanted and uncalled for irritation, Szijarto simply cancelled the visit. Wonderful!
French Counter Revolution
Apologies for being too optimistic last week: the ‘revolution’ will not happen - well, at least not one led by Le Pen’s party.
In the second round of voting in France, the left (i.e. the Popular Front), benefitting from tactical voting, has overtaken Le Pen’s National Rally which will probably lead to a hung parliament.
According to the Two Majors, Jean-Luc Melanchon's New Popular Front coalition of left-wing parties (e.g. social democrats, socialists, communists and others) won 182 seats in the French National Assembly; Macron’s bloc won 168 seats while Le Pen’s National Rally won only 143 seats. I have no idea what coalitions will be made but this state of affairs will not provide France with stable government. Moreover, the French could be stuck with Emmanuel Macron until his term expires in 2027.
Melanchon has said that he will not form an alliance with Macron or Le Pen and urges the President to choose a Prime Minister from his party. Melanchon has been described as ‘hard left’ and France’s answer to Jeremy Corbyn - which may make it difficult for Keir Starmer to work with him.
The description of National Rally as a ‘far right’ party is hardly warranted. Alexander Mercouris described it as a Gaullist party which is nationalist and pragmatic but neither authoritarian nor ideological and certainly not fascist (which is what many people understand by ‘far right’).
If you want some detail/political analysis on this, check out the Duran (33 mins) - worth watching imv. Spoiler - Alexander is not a fan of the ‘cobbled together’ far left ‘alliance’ where there as many factions as there are people. It is an unstable alliance, he said, which will preside over chaos in French politics making the country difficult to govern. As far as Ukraine is concerned, since some factions are against funding Ukraine while others are pro-Russian, it is unclear whether this development will benefit the cause of an anti-Western, sensible, realist approach to the Ukraine war. Those who have some knowledge of left wing politics will know that ‘popular front’ groups have not had much success in the past. George Orwell examines the Soviet’s ‘popular front’ of 1935 in Homage to Catalonia. This ‘popular front’ was designed to combat already existing fascist and Nazi regimes: there is no such fascist threat at this time.
Anyway, Alexander believes that Le Pen’s party will thrive while its opponents will weaken. He takes the same view of Farage’s Reform Party.
According to this report, in many French cities, the election results were greeted with civil unrest, arson, looting and clashes with police.
The defeat of Le Pen’s party was done in an underhand way through the withdrawal of hundreds of candidates prior to the vote. This allowed the ‘left’ to win. In a survey, the majority of French people view the withdrawals as fraud. You can read more at Sputnik.
Melenchon- A Breath of Realism
Jean - Luc Melenchon has caused a stir among slumbering European leaders by bringing them to earthly reality with a bump. Russia cannot be defeated, he reminded them: both Hitler and Napoleon tried and failed. Melenchon was speaking in the French parliament explaining why he will not vote for a ‘cooperation bill’ with Ukraine which includes eventual Ukrainian membership of NATO and the EU. Russia will never accept Ukraine’s membership of NATO, he said and its membership of the EU would harm France.
75th NATO Summit
The NATO Summit was held in Washington DC on the 9th-11th July. It attempted to present a show of unity, for the people of the Western world mainly, but they appeared to be lost. Their leader is certainly lost and in his latest gaffe Biden introduced Zelensky as President Putin.
Jens Stoltenberg, the outgoing Secretary General, gave Z some news he did not want to hear: Ukraine will not be joining NATO any time soon. But a NATO statement suggested that Ukraine would join eventually:
We will continue to support it (Ukraine) on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership.
It may be irreversible as far as you are concerned Stolty but the Russians will not allow it: period.
In the meantime, a NATO ‘Mission’ will be created to organise/manage supplies to Ukraine and train the military - none of which will make NATO part of the conflict according to Stolty. China’s alleged support for Russia will be negated through partnerships with China’s opponents - good luck with that. NATO announced its intention to deploy medium and long range nuclear and conventional missiles to Europe (previously outlawed by the now defunct INF Treaty) as part of another escalatory move to which Russia will respond. France, Germany, Italy and Poland have made a commitment to develop long range missiles, according to Pravda.
Stoltenberg also conceded that NATO does not believe that Russia constitutes a threat, currently. On the sidelines, Zelensky is calling for another peace summit prior to the US elections to include Russia - according to Bloomberg. His addled brain has not come to terms with the fact that Russia will not negotiate with him because he is no longer President of Ukraine and that it will insist on keeping the five disputed Oblasts. A Russian spokesman said that it will not participate.
Z did not leave the summit empty handed having secured another 4 Patriot systems and dozens of less effective air defence systems - according to RT. And the F-16s are on their way.
Finally, Callous Kallas from Estonia reminded everyone that NATO’s credibility is on the line - which is true. But NATO’s redemption can be obtained only by assisting a Ukrainian victory - according to her logic. She has completely forgotten that NATO is (was) a defensive organisation. Kallas is living proof of the adage: looks can be deceiving.
The emerging Multi-Polar World Order
Modi Meets His ‘Friend’ in Moscow
Modi had this to say about his visit:
I look forward to reviewing all aspects of bilateral cooperation with my friend President Vladimir Putin and sharing perspectives on various regional and global issues. We seek to play a supportive role for a peaceful and stable region. The Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership between India and Russia has advanced over the past ten years, including in areas of energy, security, trade, investment, health, education, culture, tourism and people-to-people exchanges.
With regard to Ukraine, he said:
War is not a solution. Bombs and missiles cannot bring peace. The focus must be on dialogue. And we insist on that.
He also said that India will contribute to peace in any way it can.
India will seek to strengthen relations with Russia based on trust and respect and will be opening two new consulates in Russia. The consulates will contribute towards the development of tourism and business cooperation.
In a joint venture, Russia and India will build two nuclear power plants on Indian soil.
Turkiye and Syria To Become Friends
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that Turkey is prepared to invite Syrian President Bashar al-Assad "at any time" for potential discussions aimed at restoring relations between the two neighboring countries.
Both sides seek a restoration of relations between them ‘to their previous levels'.
Belarus Joins SCO
This week, Belarus became a full member of the SCO.
Azerbaijan Wants to Join BRICS
The chairman of the country's parliament, Sahiba Gafarova, announced at the plenary meeting of the X BRICS Parliamentary Forum that the country will be applying to join BRICS as a full member.
BRICS To Have Own Parliament
At the above BRICS Parliamentary forum, held in St. Petersburg this week, Putin announced that BRICS would one day have a parliamentary structure. You can read more at RT.
That’s it for what has been another eventful week. Thanks for you views, subscriptions, likes, shares and comments. I know I need better sources for maps. Best Rob
" said that no Russian missiles would be shot down without NATO’s consent."
Depending on the Russian missile, no Russian missile can be shot down by anything NATO has in Poland and Romania. I doubt those Aegis Ashore installations are actually effective against most Russian missiles and certainly aren't effective against Zircons and Kinzhals.
Not to mention that if they do become effective against normal Russian missiles, a couple Zircons or Kinzhals will remove those Aegis Ashore installations - which is what the whole SMO is actually about. If they get destroyed in the course of the conflict, Putin might even decide not to take over all of Ukraine, which right now is a necessity to counter those installations.
There's something of the night about Stoltenberg. Gives me the creeps. Russia isnt currently a threat he says? Sounds like another preemptive war against Russia with all the Hitlerite undertones Nato is engaged in. As for Poland and the Baltics. Would you really risk facing down a Russian army on your border?. The days of the old Polish Lithuania Commonwealth aren't coming back- so why risk it. Don't completely agree with the German politician about war casualties. As a guide 90 percent of your armed forces provide logistical support to the 10 percent who actually do the fighting. I said before of the 10 percent who fight only 10 percent actually shoot to kill. Most human beings dont want to kill. The German army in ww2 overcame this by dehumanizing their enemies, thereby making it easier to kill. The IDF has reached this stage. Anyway, in Ukraine because the Ukrainians haven't been rotating their best soldiers have been killed which impacts upon combat effectiveness. The reason the German army lasted so long in the ww2 is that the German army because of its greater willingness to kill ratio and overall training had a decisive combat efficiency ratio over allied troops. A study showed the German landser (standard soldier) was the equivalent of a British paratrooper. The overall ratio was 1/ 1.1 German to US; 1/ 1.45 German to British etc. You see this in the Ukrainian where fewer Russians are advancing against a greater army which in part is due to the Russians being better soldiers. The Russians also have 10 to 1 in artillery and most war studies show that 75 percent casualties are caused by artillery. The Drones have limited statistical impact due to small payload regardless of whether Nato has come up with a super AI drone system which im sceptical about.