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This week has been dominated once more by the horrors of Gaza and the attempts by most of the world to obtain a ceasefire through a mechanism (i.e. the UN) that is not really fit for purpose. If the US had any semblance of moral authority left, this has now disappeared completely after it used its veto to stifle the impulse for humanity that most of the world still possesses . The Ukraine forces are creaking at the seams but have not collapsed yet, while the not so great Z is on his travels again, distancing himself from the political collapse that is also becoming visible at home. In the US, his visit was counter-productive because although he failed to secure significant funding he succeeded in annoying and insulting Senators and Members of Congress alike. But sleepy Joe Biden (about to face impeachment) slipped him a cool $200 millions, which will keep him in white powder for a while.
In the midst of all this Ugliness, I have included some beauty for a change - i.e. The Northern Lights over a city that has suffered so much.
Putin’s Annual Press Conference
At his marathon annual question and answer session, Putin advised that 617,000 Russian troops have been deployed along the 2,000 kilometre front in Ukraine, according to Sputnik. There is no need for further mobilisation, he said, because volunteers have made it unnecessary. He also talked about the objective to demilitarise Ukraine which will be achieved by military means before there can be peace and he said that denazification is still on the agenda. He called the war with Ukraine a tragedy, akin to a civil war between brothers. He also said that in the future it is important to build relations with the US whose imperialist policies are ‘hindering them, not us’. He also spoke of sending more aid to Gaza which the Israelis have agreed to and of building a temporary hospital there. But Netanyahu said that this latter would be too dangerous which is revealing. Why should it be dangerous to construct a temporary field hospital?
Putin’s interview lasted a little over 4 hours. Can you imagine Biden staying awake that long? He took 78 questions.
Russian Expansionism Debunked
According to Polish political newspaper, Mysl Polska:
Kiev’s “cunning propaganda” suggesting that a Russian victory in Ukraine will inevitably be followed up with attacks on NATO countries are little more than a form of “demagoguery” and “blackmail” completely detached from reality.
The same ‘detachment from reality’ is happening in the US as the Neo-Cons attempt to convince politicians and public alike that Russian will expand into Europe if Ukraine loses. Why Russia should want Western Ukraine yet alone Europe is beyond my comprehension.
British Forces Operating in Ukraine
According to this report from Declassified UK which refers to a book recently published by Polish journalist Zbigniew Parafianowicz, British Special Forces were seen to be operating in Ukraine by a Polish minister right at the start of the SMO.
Russia Warns NATO
Konstantin Gavrilov, head of the Russian delegation to the military security and arms control talks in Vienna, has warned that countries such as Poland or Romania who allow NATO jets to operate from their air bases will be deemed to be taking part in the Ukraine conflict and can therefore expect Russia to respond accordingly. Sounds scary but I don’t think NATO would cross this red line.
US Biolabs in Ukraine
The Russians have presented evidence to the Biological Toxic Weapons Convention in Geneva this week relating to US biolab research in Ukraine. Part of this research, conducted before the Covid outbreak in 2020, dealt with coronaviruses and bats. This may be useful in the search for the origins of the virus, the Russians believe. But the Russian military is also concerned about the possible use of biological weapons by the Ukrainians as they face defeat. South Front explores this in a good article here.
Zelensky Matters
Ze versus Za (continued)
Both Kiev Mayor, Vitali Klitschko, and former president Petro Poroshenko are lining up behind Zaluzhny, apparently. The former has criticised Zelensky as an autocrat while the latter criticised Z for attacking Zaluzhny. “Attacks on the Armed Forces of Ukraine are attacks on Ukraine,” the former president said. Zelensky is fearful of a military coup, according to rezident.
Russian intelligence is reporting that the West will want to replace Zelensky fairly soon, according to Pravda. Replacement candidates include, Zaluzhny, Klitschko, Budanov, Yermak and Arestovych. Respected Ukrainian General Sergei Krivonos, a supporter of Zaluzhny, has criticised the Zelensky regime for the huge amounts of Ukrainian dead who cannot be accommodated in the existing cemeteries. He also referred to a developing rift between the military and the political administration. Krivonos, who was sacked by Zelensky some time ago, is no longer part of the military. You can read more here.
Z in the US
Zelensky’s latest trip to the US did not go well for him. He pleaded with a group of 100 members of congress employing his usual blackmail about Russia’s alleged plans to expand into Western Europe. This annoyed Senator Erik Schimtt, who labelled this blackmail ‘the same old trash as usual’, according to Slavyangrad. Speaker, Mike Johnson, told Z that his position is unchanged: priority must be given to dealing with the migration problem on the southern border. He also said that Ukraine had not provided a convincing strategy that would allow it to defeat Russia. The American people, he said, deserve to receive assurances that their money will no be wasted. It is important to note that Biden’s rhetoric has now changed from ‘we will continue to support Ukraine for as long as needed’ to ‘we will continue to provide Ukraine with critical weapons and equipment as long as possible’. But Biden, feeling sorry for the not so great Z, offered him $200 millions in small change. Republican Senator JD Vance was scathing in his criticism of Zelensky for ‘lecturing’ the American people and making ‘demands’. He complained that Americans who want to secure their southern border are not ‘Putin puppets’ as Z had suggested. It has to be said that Z was less than honest about the situation on the battlefronts giving the impression that the Ukrainians have been more successful than they actually have been. He is probably the only pro-Ukrainian who still upholds and promotes the ‘Ukraine is winning’ narrative.
Z Takes the Defensive
Zelensky has had a meeting with his generals without Zaluzhny, so it is rumoured, in which he gave instructions for defensive fortifications to be built from Kupyansk to Ugledar in the east and in the north along the borders with Belarus, Bryansk and Kursk. In addition, he asked that defences be built in the Nikolaev region to cover Zaporizhzhe and Kherson. This would involve 2.8 thousand kilometres at a cost of $10 billions. But can they be built before the Russians advance beyond them? Time will tell.
Mrs. Z Appeals for Aid
Olena Zelensky, interviewed by the UK’s own, Laura Kuenssberg, told of her fears that Ukraine is in ‘mortal danger’ of becoming another Iraq or Afghanistan. "It is very painful for us to see signals that the passionate desire to help may fade. For us it is a matter of survival. So it hurts to see it’’, she said. The ‘passionate desire’ she talks about was based on a huge propaganda campaign that ignored the fact that the DPR and the LPR had been fighting for their independence since 2014 or that tens of thousands of Russian speaking civilians had been targeted and killed by Ukrainian artillery. If the country had adhered to the Minsk agreements or had not pulled out of negotiations with the Russians back in March 2022, Ukraine would not be in ‘mortal danger’.
Mobilisation Matters
Ukraine Gyms Empty
The Ukraine mobilisation teams (AKA ‘press gangs’) have started to scour the country’s gyms for healthy young potential combatants of either sex - they do not discriminate on the grounds of gender or disability. This has led to would be body building or fitness fanatics to take their exercise at home. The Washington Post is reporting that the avoidance of the draft, combined with desertions and deaths on the battlefield have resulted in serious manpower shortages.
Press Gangs in Odessa
Gangs of recruiters are stopping mini-buses on the streets of Odessa and are marching the occupants off to war. Shopping Malls and Health centres are being targeted. In consequence, young men, especially, are fleeing across the border to Poland.
Kyivstar and Maxnet Hacked
Hackers have caused disruption to the Ukrainian telecom service in many parts of the country. The SBU have launched a criminal investigation and is blaming Russia. Another telecom service, Maxnet, also stopped working on December 13th.
The Offensive Cometh
Russia is preparing a major offensive against Ukrainian forces, to be paired with a large-scale missile assault on the country’s critical infrastructure, according to Lt. Gen. Andrey Gurulev, who sits on the Defense Committee in the Russian parliament.
In order to advance successfully, Moscow forces would need to have a five-to-one or at least three-to-one advantage in manpower over the Ukrainian defenders, Gurulev said during his appearance on Rossiya 1 channel on Wednesday. Note the level of superiority needed, which poor Ukraine never had.
Gurulev stressed that:
The breakthrough areas are identified in the governing documents. Our commanders know this thing well and understand how to apply it. Where exactly they will happen is another question. We definitely won’t announce anything. No one should know what it’s going to look like. When the time comes – we’ll see everything.
The Russians will also engage in a massive air operation that will destroy critical infrastructure and Ukrainian air defences, according to the General, quoted in RT.
Ukraine Terror Attacks (i.e. those attacks deliberately targeting civilians) (Map)
9th December
On this day, the village of Lemeshovka in Bryansk was shelled, causing damage to four residential buildings but leaving no one injured. In Kherson on the left bank of the Dnieper, the following villages were hit: Oleshky, Hola Prystan, Dnepryany, Kakhovka, Korsunka, Nova Kakhovka, Peschanivka, Proletarka. Additionally, at least 10 arrivals were recorded in Cairo. 35 shells were fired at the village of Gorlovka and Donetsk city but no casualties were reported.
10th December
Today, ten villages were shelled in the Belgorod region along with two border control posts. In Kursk region, shelling disrupted the power supply to the village of Tetkino and the village of Popovo-Lezhachi, Glushkovsky district. In DPR, Donetsk and Staromikhailovka were shelled. No casualties were reported. Bryansk region also came under heavy shelling today.
11th December
A total of seven villages were attacked in Belgorod region on this day. Mortars, drones and artillery shells were employed but caused neither damage nor casualties.
12th December
A Tochka U tactical missile was destroyed over Belgorod by air defence forces early on the 12th, according to Tass.
13th December
Today, the Ukrainians fired 34 artillery shells at Donetsk and Gorlovka injuring two civilians. A drone was shot down over Kaluga but it caused no damage or casualties. Several drones flying towards Moscow were also shot down by local air defences and caused no damage. According to the Russian MoD:
In the Bryansk region ….the enemy shelled the village of Zabrama in the Klimovsky district, power supply was disrupted. In Belgorod region continues shelling of border areas, the governor reported the use of 5 UAV drops by the AFU in Belgorod district. Near the farm Vysoky a car with civilians exploded on a mine, three people were wounded. The enemy intensified shelling of civilians in the DPR, firing 135 shells. A civilian was killed in Donetsk and seven civilians were injured as a result of UAV drops.
14th/15th December
Three ‘extended range’ missiles were launched at Mariupol at 00.25 Moscow time on the 15th. There are no reports of casualties but a warehouse was damaged on the outskirts of the city. However, another report claims that the explosion at the warehouse was caused by a planted bomb rather than a missile. Overnight, 17 civilians were injured by Ukrainian artillery in the DPR and the border region of Belgorod suffered heavy shelling.
The Air War (Map)
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
10th/11th December Overnight
Kherson, Odessa and Nikolaev were hit by Geranium drones overnight and explosions were heard in Kirovograd. The Two Majors gave the following report:
Overnight, the RF Armed Forces launched missile strikes on Kiev. Preliminarily, hypersonic "Kinzhals" were working: the air alarm went off after the arrivals. The enemy reports eight missiles. UAVs "Geranium" hit the logistics hub in Snygiryovka, Nikolayev region (part of the Kherson region of Russia as a result of the referendum), reported an explosion in Kirovograd region. The enemy also recorded our drones in the Odessa region.
11th/12th December Overnight
According to The Two Majors:
Since evening, Geranium UAVs carried out strikes in Odessa and Nikolayev regions, explosions were heard in Uman, Cherkassy region, and drones were recorded over Kirovograd region. In the morning, missile strikes were launched against facilities in Kharkov region and in Ochakov ( Nikolayev region).
In addition, Kinzhal missiles struck military infrastructure in Kiev, particularly the Patriot anti-aircraft complex on the left bank of the river. The strike appears to have been successful according to Alexei Martyanov.
12th/13th December Overnight
According to Slavyangrad, Geraniums have attacked the ‘Odessa Central’ customs post overnight. Shaheeds were reported to be flying over Zhytomyr, Kiev and Vinnytsia regions. Three loud explosions were heard in Kiev where it is thought that Iskanders and Kinzhals were deployed. They could have been targeting the Patriot air defence system. It looks as if the airfield at Starokonstantinov (Khmelnitsky region) came under attack.
13th/14th December Overnight
Geraniums have attacked the ports of Ismail, Reni and Kilya in Odessa while a missile exploded in Snegirevka (Kherson) - according to Slavyangrad. Kiev also came under attack with missiles, according to Dima. A number of reports claim that Russian Kinzhal missiles destroyed a Patriot battery at Zhytomyr, west of Kiev. According to Slavyangrad:
Five launchers, one command vehicle, and one air surveillance radar were destroyed. Also destroyed were 80 ready-to-fire missiles worth $5.5 million and 160 spare missiles in stock. Their value is $1.32 billion.
This is the fourth Patriot system to be destroyed in Ukraine.
14th/15th December Overnight
Nikolaev was attacked by Geraniums and missiles overnight, according to Slavyangrad. ‘Shaheed’ type drones are reported to be heading towards Vinnytsia, Cherkasy and Odessa, according to Slavyangrad.
Ukraine Missile/Drone Attacks
9th December
Ukrainian drones hit an oil storage facility at Makeyevka causing a fire. There were no reports of casualties.
The Ground War
MoD Weekly Ukraine Losses
w/e 17th November: Casualties 5115 killed and wounded; equipment losses 227
w/e 24th November: 4190 Casualties killed and wounded; equipment losses 230 (includes 12 boats)
w/e 8th December: 4940 Casualties killed and wounded; equipment losses 242 (includes 21 boats)
w/e 15th December: 4330 Casualties killed and wounded; equipment losses 213 (including 17 boats).
The Fronts
Avdeevka
Ukrainian sources are claiming that the Russians have entered a new phase of conflict around Avdeevka where Russian artillery has greatly intensified. This could be in preparation for an offensive. It is being reported from Ukrainian sources that the elite 47th Mechanised Brigade has been surrounded in Avdeevka and is finding it difficult to obtain supplies including ammunition. By the end of the week, the Russians were attacking Stepovoye in the north and the forest belts in north and south. The Ukrainians continue to pour in reserves and prolonged icy rain/sleet has hampered progress.
Kherson - Krynki
The attempt to form a bridgehead at Krynki and other places on the left bank of the Dnieper has been going on for some time and the Ukrainians have lost many men in the process. Even if they had managed to establish a bridgehead it is not clear what their next step would be. Someone said ‘its a bridgehead to nowhere’, which sums it up. Now a Ukrainian publication called Dumskaya is carrying a story whose author is calling the attempt to hold this bridgehead a crime by the military command. This is part of what he said:
The sailors cross the river, and most of them are killed as they approach the shore. The wounded are not taken out. People are just constantly being thrown across the river. There is no question of another breakthrough, now the forces are being wasted just to stay there. For what?"
Artemovsk (Bakhmut)
On December 12th, Ukrainian reports claimed that the Russians had started a large scale offensive towards Chasov Yar - which is the gateway to Kramatorsk. By the 14th December, the Russians were advancing on both flanks of Artemovsk. In the north, they advanced along the forest belt towards Bogdanovka and in the south they stormed heights occupied by the Ukrainians and by passed Kleshcheevka which they could take in a pincer movement later.
Zaporizhzhe - Verbove - Robotyne
On the 12th December, a Ukrainian attack towards Verbove was repulsed.
Marinka
The city of Marinka has still not been cleared of Ukrainian forces but the 2% of the city they control is likely to be in Russian hands soon. Indeed, several reports that came out on the 13th December claimed that the Russians have now moved beyond Marinka.
Kupyansk
According to Rybar:
In the Kupiansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are still attempting to break through beyond the northern outskirts of the village of Synkivka, as well as penetrate the defensive formations of the AFU along the Zagoruykovka - Timkovka - Ivanovka - Kyslivka line.
The Economic War
90% of Ukraine Aid Stayed in US
In attempting to persuade Republicans to vote for the new Ukraine package Anthony Blinken appears to have come out with some incredible ‘porkies’ (pork pies - lies). If he’s telling the truth then many have lied to the US people in the past. This is a summary of what he said:
1. 90% of all US money allocated to Ukraine did not get to Ukraine. Most of it stayed in the US.
2. This money was used to support the military-industrial complex and create new jobs.
3. This spending ratio is a win-win situation for everyone, so "more aid for Ukraine" should be allocated.
So, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed or maimed to serve the MIC: that will provide Ukrainian widows with some comfort.
Eurozone to Enter Recession
According to Bloomberg (as reported in RT) the EU will enter recession at the end of this year after registering two consecutive quarters of contraction.
Norway $1.8 billions to Ukraine
Norway will be giving £1.8 billion dollars to Ukraine next year so that the government can pay the salaries of nurses, doctors, teachers and public sector employees. $800,000 of this is ‘humanitarian aid’. I wonder how much they will be sending to Gaza?
US Bans Russian Uranium
In a rather strange move that is likely to be politically motivated, the US congress has agreed to ban Russian uranium which could lead to shortages - according to Sputnik. The nuclear industry in the US is run by private companies which will not be pleased.
Germany Prostrates Itself Before Ukraine
Olaf Scholtz has announced that Germany may declare a state of emergency so that it can exceed its national debt threshold and donate more money to the lost cause that is Ukraine. Opposition leaders made this latter point in condemning the move as ‘financial trickery’. When a country considers entering a state of emergency even though it is technically not at war, there is something seriously wrong with its leadership. The vast majority of Germans agree: in a recent poll, 82% of Germans said they disapprove of their government. The one good thing about the move is that green subsidies would be reduced.
World Politics
EU Starts Ukraine Accession Negotiations
This may sound great for Ukrainians but it could be years (if ever) before Ukraine is offered membership. Accession negotiations have also started with regard to Moldova.
Trump Could Leave NATO
The New York Times is expressing concern that if Trump wins next November, the US will abandon Ukraine and Europe while exiting NATO.
Europe Wants Peace
A recent poll showed that 73% of Europeans want the Ukraine conflict to end immediately with a negotiated settlement, according to the Two Majors.
Donald Tusk Wants War
The new Polish PM is out of sync with such thinking demanding the ‘mobilization of the free world, the Western world’ against Russia. I expect he is full of enthusiasm after being elected but to say that ‘there is no alternative to such thinking’, is to deny reality - as his fellow Europeans will remind him. I think those outside the Western World will not be pleased with his claim that they are not free.
Gonzalo Lira
Tucker Carlson and Elon Musk are publicising the incarceration and possible torture of Gonzalo by the Ukrainian SBU. Lira is a US citizen and blogger who has been arrested twice by the SBU. Instead of leaving the country after the first arrest, he carried on blogging through his YouTube channel which criticised the Zelensky regime. This ‘silencing of dissent’ is becoming much too commonplace. I used to follow Gonzalo now and then and he made some useful contributions to various debates. His prospects have not improved in the light of new legislation. According to the deputy head of the department of the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine, Maria Burdeina, justifying Moscow's actions is actually terrorist activity. So, pro-Russian bloggers are now terrorist who face life in prison. So, does that make me a terrorist?
Wars in the World
I am sure that I have not been alone in thinking that there appears to be many conflicts in the world at the moment. Bloomberg has also noticed this trend and has identified 183 regional armed conflicts globally which is the biggest total in 30 years, according to Military Wave.
That’s all for this week. Many thanks for you views, subscriptions, likes and kind comments. Forgive me if I do not get deeply involved in discussion; I simply don’t have the time. Best Rob
Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.