This week has been dominated by the Israeli-Palestine conflict to the extent that the Ukraine war has become almost invisible, unless you happen to be part of it. Only approximately one in ten posts/comments coming in from Telegram channels and blogs refer to the conflict in Ukraine (could even be 1 in 15). This is understandable given the killing of large numbers of civilians and the potential for the ‘powder keg’ that is the middle east to explode in all our faces. Predictably, the Great Z has blamed Russia for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some insiders are claiming that Z has already been informed about a coming reduction in the supply of weapons, ammunition and air defence systems. But Biden will try to get funding to Ukraine included in an aid package to Israel, apparently. On the battlefronts, the Ukrainian forces are already weakening fast according to some and the autumn rains are already falling. Reports and statistics indicate that the Russian forces, on the other hand, are growing stronger and exerting more pressure on the Ukrainians. In other important news, Robert F Kennedy Jnr will contest the US presidency as an independent (see below) and the lower House of the US government can’t function because no new speaker has yet been elected. Conflict and the potential for conflict appears to be increasing wherever you look. We live in explosive times.
Gaza-Israel
The war between the Palestinians and the Israelis has, quite rightly, preoccupied the thoughts and words of most commentators over the past week. It is also important in the context of the struggle between Western uni-polarity and the emerging multi-polar world order. On October 8th, Boris Rozhin said:
The wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip are an integral part of the transformation of the existing world order, which will be accompanied by a large number of human casualties.
At a practical, as opposed to an ideological level, this explosive conflict will impact negatively on the Ukrainians as they vie for funding and attention on the global scene. The escalatory potential for this conflict could soon leave Zelensky and co in the shade of a forgotten war. In the US, there may now be calls for assistance to Israel, and accusations that the focus on Ukraine has allowed this ‘invasion’ to happen. Some may be concerned that Israel has depleted its arsenal to provide weapons/ammo to Ukraine. There is also concern that the Palestinians may have secured weapons from Ukraine and recriminations may follow. Indeed, Hamas has publicly thanked Ukraine for providing the weapons they are now directing at the Israelis. Military aid to Ukraine will now come under renewed scrutiny even as Biden attempts to get funding by the back door. And arms companies in the US and EU are celebrating rises in their share values. Oh what a lovely war!
The conflict between Israel and Palestine has been simmering and boiling over for decades. It is complicated. At one level, it is about land taken from the Palestinians by the Israelis in spite of decades old UN resolutions calling for the return of these lands. But for countries such as Lebanon, Iran and others, this conflict is about the way Israel has been used for decades to exert US influence in the region. Some have labelled Israel America’s ‘watchdog in the middle east’. Others have called it Uncle Sam’s ‘attack dog’. Many countries, including China and Turkiye are making renewed calls for the two state solution that some have been advocating for decades.
If you would like some detailed exposition, analysis and speculation about this middle east conflict Simplicius provides it here. I have neither the space nor the expertise to provide that in the Update. There are many commentators out there who will provide you with the detail you won’t get here. Alexander Mercouris will do it well if you’ve an hour an a half to spare.
Ukrainians Are Tired
Unsurprisingly, the Ukrainians are sad and weary after a year and a half of war which has flattered to deceive as far as they are concerned. The euphoria of last autumn has given way to frustration for most and desperation for many. According to a recent article in the Washington Post one Ukrainian female MP from Kharkov said:
If you stop, nothing makes sense. We attended so many funerals in the last 18 months. At every one, I say with tears in my eyes: I will not stop until we reach our goal.
And the goal is to evict all Russians from occupied territory.
The tragedy of many wars for the losing side lies in this striving towards an unachievable victory for the sake of those who have already died. Those who are still in the fight can’t help feeling a sense of betrayal of these dead friends or relatives should they even consider giving up on the goals they died seeking to achieve.
By Russians, I assume she means the Russian soldiers who are fighting in the east. But these are not the only Russians who are currently living in Ukraine. She must know that millions of Ukrainians are also Russians. The Post also interviewed an ex Ukrainian foreign minister who said:
Last year, it was confidence, maybe overconfidence. Now, people feel it’s a classic attrition war. … Nearly every family has someone killed. I would not try to sell the people an option that falls short of victory. Because it’s personal.
For both these people, the war is personal and their rational judgements relating to it will be distorted by the feelings they have for those who have died or been maimed. Of course, neither of these people will necessarily know that the war cannot be won and so they are still hopeful.
A recent Gallup poll showed that overall support for the war is declining in Ukraine but more so in the Russian speaking oblasts in the east and south. In the West, 60% of Ukrainians want the war to continue. This figure was 70% a year ago.
Ukraine Officer Shortage
Many years ago when studying the Sociology of War, I read an article on Cohesion and Disintegration in the Wehrmacht during World War Two1. Many commentators were surprised that towards the end of the war the German army didn’t fall apart sooner than it did. The article attempts to explain this with reference to the hard core Nazi non-commissioned officers who held things together at the fronts. These officers were valuable. But eventually the Wehrmacht succumbed when it’s men could no longer receive supplies. Officers are important to any army, obviously, and when they are not adequately trained and motivated this will have a huge impact on the conflict in which they are engaged. This appears to be the case in Ukraine, according to one source. Whereas it is possible for rank and file soldiers to function with minimum training, this is not the case with officers who will be prone to making costly mistakes in the absence of training and experience. When officers make mistakes their men will lose confidence in them and will be reluctant to assume their role as ‘cannon fodder’. There is much evidence from Ukrainian Telegram channels that this is happening. Some soldiers are surrendering if circumstances permit but so far this appears to have been a trickle rather than a flood.
Reports on Attacks
I should say that I am less confident than usual that I have received all the reports relating to drone, missile and artillery attacks by the Ukrainians. For much of the week no reports of these attacks were available in the Russian ‘newspaper’ sources I use - i.e. mainly Tass, Pravda, Sputnik and RT. Some reports came through Telegram but I get the sense that even these did not cover all of the attacks. Anyway, I thought I’d better point out that there are probably more gaps than on previous Updates. I can see no reason why the frequency of attacks has decreased (apart from the case of Donetsk - see below). All this is understandable given the amount of stories coming out of the middle east which newspapers view as more important than a drone falling into the Black Sea - or whatever. I should also say that this lack of confidence extends to the reporting of Russian missile/drone attacks.
Ukrainian Terrorist Attacks
Moscow
The Istra district north west of Moscow was attacked with a solitary drone on the 7th October. Air defences destroyed it before it could cause damage.
Belgorod
Three Ukrainian Tochka-U missiles were shot down over Belgorod on October 7th and a man was killed by Ukrainian artillery in the village of Urazovo - according to Tass. On the 10th October, (I am aware of the gap of three days when I couldn’t get any information) artillery damaged houses, a gas pipeline and power lines in Popovka. One man was killed by shrapnel in his own home while his wife died in an ambulance on the way to hospital. Meanwhile artillery also damaged houses in the village of Demidovka but I have no information on damage or casualties.
Donetsk
Western made missiles continue to kill civilians in Donetsk city centre on a daily basis. A large attack damaged residential buildings on October 8th but fortunately there were no casualties. On the 9th, 124 rounds of artillery ammunition was fired at Donetsk region causing only two civilian casualties. At least one report suggests that the intensity of artillery fire from the Ukrainians has declined overall during the past week. On the 10th October, another 66 munitions were launched into Donetsk, which is fewer than yesterday. Another report from Slavyangrad predicts that the movement of Russian forces around Avdiivka (see below) will soon make it difficult for the Ukrainians to attack civilians in Donetsk. There will be quite a few celebrations when that happens.
Then, on October 12th, for the first time in two years, not a single shell fell on Donetsk city (i.e. over a 24 hour period). But normal service was resumed on the 13th when two people were killed and two wounded by artillery fire.
Bryansk
The border regions of Bryansk have long been subject to massive shelling and drone attacks, especially on the 11th October. Several houses were set on fire but no casualties have been reported. The village of Suzemka was attacked three times by artillery shells on the same day and much damage was caused to residential buildings and cars. In addition, Four civilians were injured and received hospital treatment for shrapnel wounds. On the 12th October, an agricultural facility was damaged and several animals killed in the village of Azarovka while in the neighbouring village of Demyanki a residential building was damaged.
Kherson
On the left (east) bank Dnieper, residential areas of of the Novaya Kakhovka, Krynki, Oleshky and Golaya Pristan came under artillery and mortar fire on October 11th. In the Cossack Camps2, a civilian was killed as a result of a mortar shell. Thirty shells were used in the attacks.
The Sea War
Sevastopol
On the 6th October, two unmanned sea drones attempted to get through to the bay near the northern pier at Sevastopol. A boat and helicopters intercepted and destroyed the drones. At 10.30 pm on the same day, a solitary drone heading for Sevastopol was shot down. On October 13th, a patrol ship (Pavel Derzhavin) leaving Sevastopol bay was attacked by a fully submersed drone causing damage to its rudder. A boat sent out to provide assistance was also attacked. Both vessels remained seaworthy - or so I am told.
The Air War
Russian Drone/Missile Strikes
6th/7th October Overnight
Geraniums hit the ferry crossing at the Danube port of Orlovka overnight and some damage was caused to granaries. Kharkov was also hit.
7th/8th October Overnight
Russian missiles/drones attacked the military airfield at Mirgorod and an ammo dump north east of Nikolaev. A grouping of Ukrainian soldiers was attacked at Chernomorsk (Odessa) and a military airfield near Myrhorod, in the Poltava region, was also attacked. (Sorry, you will need a Map)
9th/10th October Overnight
According to Rybar:
At night, the Russian Armed Forces hit enemy targets in the Nikolaev and Odessa regions. Explosions occurred in Odessa, n.p. Dachnoe, Vilkovo, Izmail district, port of Ochaskiv. Local residents again noted the incorrect operation of enemy air defense; Ukrainian missiles with a disrupted flight path were caught on video.
In the Odessa region, the 35th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was attacked in the village of Dachnoye. The 35th is preparing for a large landing operation on the left bank of the Dnieper in Kherson, so they say. It is not clear whether it will still be involved in this operation or if the operation will now happen.
11th/12th October Overnight
The Russian Armed Forces carried out strikes at night on enemy targets in Kharkov, Kherson region, Izmail, Odessa region, Ochakov, Nikolaev region, Uman and Cherkasy regions. At Izmail, port facilities and a cannery used for military purposes were damaged.
Ukrainian Drone/Missile Attacks
Crimea
The railway station at Dzhankoy in northern Crimea was targeted on October 7th but the missile fell about 50 metres short and caused no damage.
Belgorod
On the evening of the 9th October, a drone was destroyed over the Belgorod region and on October 11th a drone demolished a house killing two adults and a child. The attack caused serious injury to the parents of the dead child who are now being treated in hospital. Khaibar Akifi, who is a producer for Sputnik was the father of the child and son in law of the dead couple. In another incident, falling debris from one drone caused a fire in a house but caused no casualties. A single drone was shot down over Belgorod on the 13th.
Bryansk
A solitary drone was shot down over Bryansk on October 10th and another two ‘aircraft type’ drones were shot down on the 11th October. Districts of Bryansk were subject to heavy shelling again on the 13th October and a drone that was disabled electronically fell to earth with a loud bang. No casualties were reported.
The Ground War
Russian MoD Reports on Ukrainian Casualties
The Russian MoD is providing a weekly casualty report which lumps killed and wounded together. This one is for the period 29th September to 6th October. Total casualties for the week amounted to 3,903 which is around 550 per day. These figures appear to be lower than they have been recently. Total equipment losses (including tanks, AFV’s, pick up trucks, artillery pieces etc.) = 253. However, compare this to w/e 13th October: Casualties: 5300 killed and wounded (757 per day); equipment losses = 299. I am aware that these figures will not be accurate but they point towards an increase in the intensity of the fighting which is confirmed by Sitreps. The Report: Part One; Part Two. The Report also shows the numbers of artillery dumps, drones and radar systems destroyed - and much else.
The Fronts
Using football (or soccer) analogies journalist Marat Khairullin suggests that the Ukrainians are looking more and more like a spent force that has used up all its substitutes while the Russians have used none of theirs. For anyone watching the conflict closely this is becoming more and more evident. The Russians are counter-attacking (e.g. Kleshcheevka and Robotino) or pressurising the Ukrainians all along the fronts where they are being stretched this way and that, beyond their capacity to maintain their positions. According to Khairullin, the Ukrainians continue to be lured into ‘firebags’ where the Russians continue to annihilate them.
Kupyansk
On October 6th, Khairullin provided an update on the ‘Northern Front’ at Kupyansk. He noted that the Ukrainians have been pulling troops from here to the south and that the Russians have moved forward taking advantage of the decreasing resistance. Some units are attacking towards Ivanovka where a 5 thousand strong group of Ukrainians is ‘sitting’. Other units are attacking a group of 12,000 Ukrainians in five lines of defences north of Kupyansk. Marat reminds us that Russian strategy is one of stretching Ukrainian forces in order to deplete them. According to one report the Ukrainians have given up on counter-attacks in and around Kupyansk and are now preparing to defend the city. The newly formed Russian 25th army is making slow but steady progress in this direction.
Svatove
This was the situation in the Svatove direction at 1600 hours on October 10th. Sorry, I haven’t been able to find out what’s going on in Svatove since then.
Avdeevka
At 4 am on the morning of October 10th, 200 barrels of Russian artillery pounded fortified Ukrainian positions around Avdeevka and deep into the Ukrainian’s rear. Some on the Russian side are talking about ‘the coming big offensive’ - according to the Military Chronicle. As you can see from this snapshot of Avdeevka, around noon on the 10th October, the Ukrainians are almost surrounded. This is so reminiscent of previous ‘cauldrons’ such as Bakhmut. The Russians are attacking with massive artillery bombardments and Fab-1500 bombs. The ferocity of the Russian attacks on what is the very fortified area of Avdeevka continued on the 11th October. Dima believes that a cauldron is now in the making. The battle for Avdeevka has begun.
On the 13th October, the Russians launched massive armoured attacks on the flanks of Avdeevka while the Ukrainians desperately funneled reinforcements into the area to prevent the city from being surrounded and cut off. The Russians ae attempting to capture the heights around the city as I write.
Kherson
It is being reported that the Ukrainians are building up their forces on a number of islands in the Dnieper, including Kozatsky, Aleshkinsky and Melky. They are also ensconced underneath the Antonovsky bridge. It seems that the Ukrainians are preparing to attack but the poor weather may be delaying them.
Orikhiv - Rabotino - Verbove
On October 13th, the little village of Rabotino was still in the grey zone, according to the Military Chronicle (but that may not be true as we speak). Ukrainian attacks towards Verbove have also failed.
Vremyevskiy ledge
The Ukrainians have attempted offensive action in this direction with no success while the Russians continue to attack in area of Urozhayne, according to Boris Rozhin.
Artemovsk (Bakhmut)
According to Boris Rozhin on the 12th October:
Fierce fighting continues in the area of Orekhovo-Vasylivka, as well as in the area of the Klishchiivka-Andriivka-Kurdyumivka line, there are no fundamental changes - powerful artillery fire from both sides makes it extremely difficult to conduct active offensive operations associated with heavy losses.
The Economic War
Gas Prices Surge in Europe
Gas prices in Europe have surged to a six month high. This is partly due to the forced shutdown of a gas field supplying Egypt following the outbreak of war between Israel and Palestine. Futures prices have soared by 54% which does not augur well. Europeans will be paying a high price to keep themselves warm this winter.
Germany
German social security debt increased from $1.6 billion in 2022 to $7.5 billions in the first half of 2023. Social security payments to Ukrainian refugees accounts for most of this and is exacerbated by the fact that Ukrainians have little incentive to find work.
Russia
The IMF is now predicting that the Russian economy will grow by 2.2 % during 2023 - which is 50% more than previous forecasts. The sanctions are not working.
World Politics
Kennedy to Run as Independent
Polls show that Kennedy could attract 33% of the vote among Democrats which would split the vote leaving the way open for Trump to win in a landslide. But some are also concerned there is a danger that he may become the third member of the Kennedy family to be assassinated. Threats have already prompted Kennedy to seek protection from secret services. His announcement of running as an independent included the following declaration of independence:
"I'm here to declare himself 3an independent candidate for president of the United States. That's not all. I'm here to join you in making a new declaration of independence for our entire nation. We declare independence from the corporations that have hijacked our government. And we declare independence from Wall Street, from Big Tech, from Big Pharma, from Big Ag, from the military contractors and their lobbyists. And we declare independence from the cynical elites who betray our hope and who amplify our divisions. And finally, we declare independence from the two political parties.
He will need lots of protection after that.
Biden will now face two anti-war voices which will make life difficult for him.
US House Fails To Elect Speaker
Following Kevin McCarthy’s departure from the lower House after being voted out, the Republicans could not agree on a replacement. Therefore, the House is now paralysed and will not be able to pass legislation, including funding for Ukraine, according to RT.
Germany
Olaf Scholtz’s Social Democrat party has suffered humiliating defeats in local elections in Bavaria and Hesse where it polled in 5th and 3rd place respectively - according to Slavyangrad. RT has a short article here. Things will not get any better for Germany this winter as it faces a shortage of gas supplies.
Romania Snubs Z
As part of his visit to Bucharest, Zelensky was scheduled to speak at the Romanian parliament. But this has now been cancelled out of security concerns. The vast majority of the Romanian people are against sending aid to Ukraine and will probably vote for anti-Ukrainian parties in the coming 2024 elections. Romanians have expressed concerns about poor Ukrainian treatment of the 300,000 Romanians who live there.
Z At NATO HQ Brussels
Zelensky arrived in Brussels on the 10th October and met with Jens Stoltenberg - according to Slavyangrad. It is reported that Z said that Russia ‘helped Hamas and is being behind Hamas’. Russia, he said, was: ‘interested in triggering a war in the Middle East..[to] undermine world unity…[and] destroy freedom in Europe.” Z is fearful that this conflict will draw attention away from Ukraine, according to RT.
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Kyrgyzstan (October 13th)
Putin spoke at this conference of Eurasian states and offered to mediate in the Palestine-Israeli conflict - according to Sputnik. He called the Israeli siege of Gaza ‘unacceptable’ and compared it with the Nazi siege of Leningrad.
Putin added that the CIS countries should expand interaction with the world majority states:
It is important to work together with like-minded people from other regions of the world - with the countries of the so-called world majority, the global South, whose views are very close to us.
He went on to promote BRICS which Russia will chair next year.
I’ll leave the last words to Marat Khairullin after meeting an old soldier who wanted Avdeevka back. The old soldier told him:
Wait a little longer, we’ll come…And finally, we went. To bring Avdeevka home, to make her dear again... And this became a great holiday for us here, which this crippled soldier celebrated…
This war means more to some of the combatants and those around them than we can appreciate and it is good that someone like Marat is bringing this to our attention.
That’s all for this week. Many thanks for your views, subscriptions, comments and likes. Sorry this is a little late due to a mid week break in Annan4. Best Rob.
Cohesion and Disintegration in the Wehrmacht in World War II (Shils, EA and Janowitz, M) - The Public Opinion Quarterly 1948.
The Cossack Camps were used to imprison Russians and Ukrainians who had fought against the allies in World War Two. Many of them were Cossacks - hence the name.
Robert the Bruce once built a castle there on the lowlands west coast not far from Dumfries.
Pretty much everyone has concluded that this war is almost over IF the US does not provide another massive cash and equipment boost. And since Israel is first in line due to their lobby in the US being far stronger than the Ukraine lobby, and since Israel depleted its military stocks by sending them to Ukraine at the US' request, it's fairly certain that Ukraine won't be getting much more.
The general assessment is that Ukraine can't last more than a few weeks without constant US assistance, both in terms of government funding and in terms of military logistics. Scott Ritter continues to say the Ukrainian army will collapse by end of the year. And I continue to stand by 3-6 month to collapse, although now it's closer to 2-4.
I should note that I suspect when the collapse comes, it won't look like a collapse initially. It will look like a hole in the lines. I think that is what the Russians are waiting for: a hole they can pour 100,000 troops and tanks and artillery through, reinforced by air power and standoff weapons.
Russian doctrine, as I understand it, is based on "reward success, not failure." Say you have 3 battalions right, left and center. Left is being mauled by the enemy, center is holding and right is having some success. US doctrine is send the reserves to the left to reinforce the mauled battalion. Russian doctrine is "fuck the left, they failed, send the reserves to the right and maybe take some from center, too, and go, go, go!" They push through the right, flank and surround and annihilate the enemy.
So one hole big enough in the Ukraine lines, while Russia is pressuring Ukraine all along the rest of the front so Ukraine can not divert forces to reinforce that hole, and the bulk of the Russian reserves will plow through it, out-flanking the Ukrainian entire line. Then the roll-up of the line will begin, forcing Ukraine to retreat back to the Dnieper, taking heavy casualties all the way. That will be the collapse.
Ukraine might try to build a new defensive line on the western side of the Dnieper, but Russia by then will have the capacity to either cross the Dnieper in Kherson - Marat reported some Russian units had already taken some islands in the middle a couple weeks ago - or pivot around in Belarus and come down on the western side. That will force the Ukrainians to wholesale retreat back to Kiev.
Kiev itself is no problem. Russia will have the troops needed to cut off the city from reinforcement, food and water, then send in recon to locate resistance points, then send in Chechens and Wagner to degrade resistance, then wait for the city to fall, like Mariupol. Doesn't matter what the Ukraine government officially does then - flee to Lviv or Poland, declare a government in exile, who cares? With Kiev and all the government buildings in Russian hands, the war is effectively over. Then on to Lviv and the Polish border, no matter who else says what. Everything else is cleanup, which might well take some months, if not a year.
In any event, we'll see.
Thanks very much - I appreciate your comprehensive and balanced coverage.