Ukraine Weekly Update
This week has been dominated by the Moscow terrorist attacks as you all know and I would like to offer my condolences to anyone who has been touched by this. In Ukraine, the Russians have stepped up their air attacks on airfields, command centres, troop concentration points, military storage, production and repair facilities and so on. But it is noticeable that the electric grid is being attacked extensively and many gas supply/storage facilities have also been damaged. The Ukrainians continue their terrorist attacks in places like Belgorod and Kursk but civilian casualties have been mercifully low. On the battlefronts, the Russians continue to take ground in most places while the Ukrainians are reporting shortages in manpower and materiel. Rumours of a coming Russian offensive are prominent among supporters of both sides. A temporary ceasefire in Palestine has been ordered by the UNSC but the Israelis are not listening.
Moscow Terrorist Attack
Early on the evening of the 22nd March the Crocus City Hall, Krasnagorsk, Moscow was attacked by terrorists as people gathered to attend a rock concert in the building. The terrorists fired indiscriminately into the crowds then set the building on fire causing the roof to collapse. Some are claiming that the terrorist group ISIS has admitted responsibility for the attacks but these terrorists themselves did not behave like suicidal jihadists in that they sought to save themselves. ISIS often makes claims to attacks it had no involvement with, according to Oleg Makarenko, associate professor of the Department of Culture and Theology of the Moscow State Pedagogical University.
Maria Zakharova was in great form over the weekend when commenting on the West’s reaction to the attacks which quickly ruled out Ukrainian involvement. I almost feel the embarrassment of those she is upbraiding - she is quite clearly the grown up to the Western toddler.
The White House said it sees no indication that Ukraine or Ukrainians were involved in the terrorist attack in Moscow. On what basis do officials in Washington draw any conclusions in the midst of the tragedy about anyone's involvement? If the United States has or had reliable information on this matter, it must be immediately handed over to the Russian side. And if there is no such data, then the White House has no right to issue indulgences to anyone. [Italics original]
Then she pushed the knife in a bit further:
If only they could sort out the assassination of their own President Kennedy so quickly. But no, for more than 60 years they have not been able to find out who killed him.
One of the terrorists detained said that they had agreed to carry out the attacks for half a million rubles and that this was arranged through Telegram. Weapons were provided to them.
Four of the terrorists were caught in Bryansk headed for the the Ukrainian border in a car. Some believe this was part of a ‘get away’ plan so that the terrorists could reach Ukraine and safety. Interrogations make it clear that the assassins were motivated to carry out the attacks by money not by ideology but it is still possible that ISIS and/or the SBU organised it. In Russia, 11 people have been detained altogether. Some were from Tajikistan and some are speculating that they were recruited through the Ukrainian embassy in the country. Later in the week another nine suspects were arrested in Tajikistan, according to Tass.
Maria Zakharova complained to the UN after it released an initial statement in which it said that it was ‘saddened’ by the events. This was then altered to a statement more appropriate to the terror, rather than sadness, that the events had inspired:
[Guterres] condemns in the strongest possible terms today’s terrorist attack at a concert hall outside Moscow. [He extends] deep condolences to the bereaved families and the people and the Government of the Russian Federation.
Seyed Mohammad Marandi, a political analyst and professor at Tehran University, also found it curious that, even when “no real details” about the attack were known, the United States started insisting that Ukraine was not involved. He added:
It is also very strange that the United States was able to give such a detailed travel advisory or warning about a terror attack naming concerts and giving specifics about an attack in Moscow and large gatherings and all that [previous to the attack]. So, they have all these specific details, but they were unable to give anything specific to the Russians. This all makes one think that something is very wrong.
Marandi is referring to US warnings to their citizens that were not, apparently, extended to the Russians. RT suggests that a lack of trust between the US and Russia prevented the former from providing the latter with full disclosure regarding the threat.
On the 27th March the death toll had reached 143 with around 200 injured, according to RT.
Sympathy
Burj Khalifa Tower (Dubai)
Flowers at Crocus Hall
Riga (Latvia)
The authorities in Riga prevented people from leaving flowers outside the Russian embassy so they left them on the other side of the street instead.. This shows how inhumane the whole Russophobia cult has become.
Africa
According to African Initiative:
Burkinabés gathered at the Russian Embassy in Ouagadougou to express condolences following the Crocus City. As a gesture of sympathy and support, they are bringing candles and flowers to the walls of the Russian embassy. Similar expressions of sympathy and support are being conveyed by Mali, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Egypt, and other African nations.
France v Chile
The Stadium Announcer declared:
The French Football Federation extends its condolences to the victims of the attack in Moscow and their families. When such events occur, we must show solidarity with the Russian people. It is necessary to pay tribute, do it under proper conditions, considering the full horror of what happened.
There are bits of humanity around and it’s good, for me, to find it in football.
Republic of Srpska Declared 24th March Day Of Mourning
Germany????
Of course Germany condemns terrorism unless it’s against Russia!
Putin’s View
1. The terrorist attack was carried out by radical Islamists. The goal was to sow panic in Russian society.
2. The United States is trying to assure everyone that there is no Ukrainian trace here.
3. The investigation will be objective and without bias, despite the understandable grief and pain.
4. Russia knows who the perpetrators are, but is more interested in who commissioned the attack. This may be part of the war that has been waged against the Russian Federation via the Kiev regime since 2014.
5. The Crocus terrorist attack fits the mold of intimidation campaigns carried out by the neo-Nazi Kiev regime.
6. One clear question is who was waiting for the terrorists in Ukraine and where they were going.
7. The Russian Armed Forces firmly hold the operational initiative at the front. At the same time, in Ukraine, in attempts to support mobilization, they are creating an analogue of the “Hitler Youth”.
Did Ukraine Do It?
A month ago Victoria Nuland said that Putin would face some nasty surprises. Is this what she had in mind?
French Journalist Vincent Hervouet had this to say:
When [Zelensky] claims that Ukraine has never resorted to terrorism - he's making a mockery of the world. Because even without talking about Nord Stream, we are still waiting for the official truth about the car-bombed murder of intellectual Dugin near Moscow, or rather his daughter, who was killed when she started the car. Then there is the murder of an anti-Ukrainian military blogger and the attack on a cafe in St. Petersburg. These are attacks that were claimed by the Ukrainian services.
FSB Director Bortnikov was in no doubt:
the Ukrainian special services facilitated the terrorist attack, and radical Islamists prepared it.
He also stated that the SBU should be recognised as a terrorist organisation and that the terrorist threat to Russia remains.
Larry Johnson has said that the US must have known that the attacks were being planned by the Ukrainians. ‘There's a good chance that Ukraine not only did it, but did it with weapons and support provided by the United States’, Johnson said.
Russian investigators have discovered that the attackers received significant amounts of both money and cryptocurrency from Ukraine. Evidence of a connection with Ukrainian nationalists has also been found. According to RT, the attacks were orchestrated by a contact on social media who advised the attackers to flee to Ukraine when they had finished.
Did ISIS Do It?
Pravda says no for the following reasons::
Firstly, the terrorist attack occurred during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, when such actions are considered unacceptable.
Secondly, the detained terrorists were not religious fanatics, nor did they have relevant literature.
Thirdly, their motivation, apparently, was to receive monetary rewards in rubles. There were no religious beliefs involved.
Fourthly, the target of the attack was a concert center owned by a Muslim of Azerbaijani origin.
RT suggests that given the connections it has with Ukraine, ISIS could have been involved in a joint venture with the SBU.
Simplicius does some digging here: for those who love detail and Richard Steven Hack provides a nuanced analysis which is worth a look.
Did Russia Do It?
A Spokesman for the Ukrainian GUR claimed that this attack was carried out by ‘Putin’s special services’. The once great Z also claimed that ‘it is obvious’ that the Russians carried out the attacks.
Zelensky to be Targeted?
According to legitimniy the US ambassador has warned Ermak that the agreement that has allowed the Ukrainian elites to move around freely has been nullified by the Moscow terror attacks. These Ukrainians believe that the SBU and GUR intelligence services will be targeted first.
Ukrainian Mobilisation (Latest)
People’s Deputy Razumkov has announced that Ukraine’s young men will be receiving basis military training at 18 and will be mobilised at 19.
Danilov Gone
Zelensky dismissed Oleksiy Danilov from the post of the NSDC secretary and appointed the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Litvinenko, in his place. Ivashchenko, who comes from the GUR, will head the SVR instead of Litvinenko - according to Slavyangrad
Leave the Oil Alone - US
The US is concerned that Ukraine’s attacks on oil refineries could impact on global oil prices so the Ukrainians are being asked to desist - according to Slavyangrad.
Ukrainians Committed War Crimes in Avdeevka
According to Patrick Lancaster::
I met with Avdeevka / Avdiivka / Avdeyevka Residents / refugees and they exposed many war crimes committed by the Ukraine forces during the battle where Russia captured the city. As these people state, the Ukraine forces used tanks to fire directly on homes, used resident as human shields, targeted civilians, regularly kidnapped people. They all said how they have been waiting for Russian forces to come help them.
Medvedev
"The destruction of French troops in Ukraine will be a priority and glorious task of our Armed Forces’’.
Other Ukrainian Terror Attacks
22nd/23rd March Overnight
Belgorod was shelled again overnight killing one person and injuring three. Apartment buildings were attacked causing some damage and injuries.
24th/25th March Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
The enemy continues to attack the Belgorod region with rocket artillery. Over the past day, seven civilians have been wounded. In the Rostov region, the governor reported that at night a fire occurred at the transformer substation of the Novocherkassk State District Power Plant, which was promptly extinguished by the station workers. There were no casualties. On the peaceful population of the DPR, the enemy fired 42 rounds of ammunition, one civilian was injured in the village of Yelenovka (Yenakievo urban district) as a result of an IED dropped from an AFU drone.
The Russian MoD reported that:
Russian air defense systems destroyed 172 Ukrainian drones, 11 Storm Shadow cruise missiles and three Neptune anti-ship missiles, as well as 22 multiple launch rocket system shells and other targets.
25th/26th March
According to the Two Majors:
Despite the cessation of AFU attempts to break into the Belgorod region, Nazi terrorist attacks on civilians continue. The enemy fires MLRS into the region several times a day. Just yesterday, three were wounded, including from attacks by enemy strike drones. In the Rostov region, air defence units successfully worked on air targets in the sky between Novocherkassk and Bataysk.
According to Sitrep:
Air defence systems intercepted 11 Ukrainian drones over the Rostov region last night [25th March], MoD reported. At about 15:30 Moscow time, 2 Ukrainian S-200 missiles were shot down over the region. In the Belgorod region, the AFU attacked a Gazelle car on the motorway by a kamikaze drone, the driver and passenger were not injured, the governor of the region Gladkov said.
The village of Golovchino in Belgorod was attacked overnight hitting four residential buildings, two cars and wounding three people.
26th/27th March Overnight
18 ‘air targets’ (i.e. MLRS Vampire missiles) were shot down over Belgorod at night. One man was injured by shelling and at least nine residential buildings and some cars were damaged.
27th/28th March Overnight
Air defences managed to shoot down 16 missiles over Belgorod overnight. Some apartment buildings, health care facilities and cars were damaged but there were no casualties. Villages in Kursk region were shelled while Gorlovka in the DPR was attacked killing three and injuring five.
28th/29th March Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
The AFU continue shelling the Belgorod region from MLRS and with strike drones. One wounded civilian was reported in the Novaya Tavolzhanka in the Shebekinsky urban district. At night, 15 air targets were shot down on approach to Belgorod, the governor of the region reported damage to residential buildings and cars as a result of the attack. In the Kursk region, the AFU fired at Korovyakovka and Tyotkino in the Glushkovsky district. In the DPR, in Donetsk and Staromlinovka (Velikonovoselkovsky district), four civilians were injured, including one teenager. The enemy is firing and dropping ammunition from drones.
The Sea War
23rd/24th March Overnight
Ten Stormshadow type missiles were destroyed over Sevastopol overnight but a few missiles managed to get through and cause damage to residential and office buildings causing casualties. One person died and another four were injured. A later report claimed that 40 missiles and drones attempted to hit targets in central and western Crimea but they caused minimal damage. The Ukrainians appear to have used at least 12 aircraft, according to the Military Chronicle.
The Air War
F-16s
Vladimir Putin has made it clear that if F-16s are launched from airfields outside of Ukraine these will become legitimate targets under international law. I wonder if NATO would be reckless enough to test Putin’s resolve?
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
21st/22nd March
Kharkov has been completely de-energised after the attacks which employed at least 18 missiles of the S-300 or Iskander, according to Slavyangrad. In the absence of traffic lights, police are directing traffic at intersections - until some idiot recruiting officer sends them to the front!
The Ukraine Energy Ministry had this to say:
600k people in Kharkov, 150k in Dnipropetrovsk oblast and 2k Khmelnytskyi have no electricity. 230k people in Odessa are subject to "restrictions"
The Dnieper Hydro-electric power station was attacked and damaged some time on the 22nd March and military targets in Kmelnitsky, Kirovograd and Odessa were hit. Kanatovo and Starokonstantinov airfields were also hit. Ternopil region also came under attack along with the sea oil terminal at Yuzhny which was hit by two missiles. Later reports from the Ukrainians suggest that the Dnieper Hydro-electric power station is out of order and that the Ukrainian defence industry will suffer. 20% of Ukrainian generating capacity has been lost and it is not clear how long repairs will take to complete.
22nd/23rd March Overnight
Geraniums attacked Kharkov, Kremenchug and Krivoy Rog overnight.
23rd/24th March Overnight
A brief report by legitimniy claims that 20 missiles attacked the city of Stryi (near Lviv) overnight. Lubricant warehouses, airfields, gas/electric infrastructure and air defences were targeted. Kiev also came under attack overnight. A gas exchange point was attacked with Geraniums near the village of Pyatinchany causing a fire which could not be extinguished. This is preventing gas from being distributed to Industry and the general population throughout Ukraine. It is reported that restoration work will take some considerable time. This is the largest gas storage facility in Ukraine as Dima reports here. Its storage capacity is four times that of the largest gas storage facility in Germany and it provides (did provide) gas to European countries. European gas prices could rise in consequence. Some on Ukrainian Telegram channels are speculating that this was meant to be a warning by the Russians to the Europeans that their gas could be cut off.
Zhitomer, Vinnitsa, Cherkasy, Kirovograd, Odessa, Nikolaev and part of Kherson region all came under attack. It was also reported that 15 TU-95’s were in the air. These planes carry strategic missiles.
According to Sputnik Africa:
The Kharkov Transport Engineering Plant, which produces and repairs tanks, tank engines and infantry fighting vehicles for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as two thermal power plants were hit by a Russian missile attack on Friday morning, the Nikolaev underground resistance movement's coordinator Sergey Lebedev told Sputnik.
24th/25th March Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
The RF Armed Forces, at night, hit targets in the Odessa region with “Geraniums”. Local authorities reported damage to the energy infrastructure; power supply was lost in one part of Odessa.
A power plant in the village of Ladyzhyn was badly damaged by Russian missiles and will probably be out of action for months, according to Geroman. There was a direct hit on the engine room and turbines. On the 25th March, Ukrainian facilities in Kiev were attacked by at least 6 Oniks-M missiles.
Among the targets destroyed was the SBU building, according to the Kyiv Post. You can see more images here. According to Slavyangrad, two Patriot defence systems were destroyed at Zhulyany airport in Kiev.
25th/26th March Overnight
The CHPP-5 power plant which provides thermal and electric power to Kharkov was destroyed overnight and will take at least a year to repair, according to Geroman. In Ivano Frankovsk, south of Lviv, a military building was destroyed overnight.
26th/27th March Overnight
On the 26th according to the Russian MoD:
During the day, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a group strike with high-precision long-range sea- and land-based weapons and UAVs on decision-making centers, SBU facilities, military-industrial complex enterprises, as well as locations of Ukrainian national formations and foreign mercenaries. All objects are hit. The objectives of the strike have been achieved.
Overnight, Geraniums were in the air over Kharkov, Poltava, Chernigov and Sumy.
27th/28th March Overnight
Ukrainians channels reported that five Russian Tu22-M3 planes launched their missiles from above the Black Sea. Air alerts were sounded in most regions of Ukraine. Explosions were reported in Odessa and in Kharkov. Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporizhye were also attacked by geraniums.
28th/29th March Overnight
The Two Majors gave this report:
The RF Armed Forces, in the second half of the night, launched missiles from strategic missile carriers Tu-95ms and 3 MiG-31K. Explosions were reported in the early morning in the Odessa region, Stryi in Lvov region, Kremenchuk and Mirgorod in Poltava region, Shepetovka and Khmelnitsky in Khmelnitsky region, Korosten in Zhitomir region, Kanev in Cherkassy region, Dnepropetrovsk and Burshtyn, Ivano-Frankovsk region. The enemy claimed the use of missile weapons from the territory of Crimea and the Geran UAV, which indicates the combined nature of the strikes. Immediately after the explosions, power outages were reported in different regions of Ukraine.
Ukraine Telegram channel legitimniy, had this to say:
Be careful, four/six Tu-95MS are flying again (a salvo of 24/36 Kh-555/101 missiles). They took off from Olenya airbase as usual. They are heading towards the Caspian Sea. Lone kamikaze UAVs are also flying en masse across Ukraine. There are flights to the Dnieper and the region on energy infrastructure. Have the Russians really decided to turn off the switch in Ukraine? If yes, then this is bad news.
According to intelslava:
A series of massive explosions covered the Dnepropetrovsk, Cherkassy, Poltava, Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. Explosions also occurred in Odessa, Kharkov, Sumy, Kiev, Krivoy Rog, Khmelnitsky, Ternopil, Volyn, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr and Zaporozhye regions. The defeat of the Sredneprovskaya hydroelectric power station, the Krivoy Rog thermal power plant, and the Dnieper thermal power plant has been confirmed.
It does look as if the Russians are going after the power grid.
Ukrainian Missile/Drone Attacks
22nd/23rd March Overnight
Kuibyshev oil refinery in Samara region was hit by drones overnight causing a fire. An attack on the Novokuybyshevsky refinery was repelled.
The Ground War
Russian MoD Reports
w/e 8th March 7285 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 351.
w/e 15th March 6745 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 411.
w/e 22nd March 8745 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 361
w/e 29th March 5770 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 361
The Fronts
Ukrainian Telegram channels are reporting that Ukrainian troops are not being rotated and that reserves are being pulled in to shore up some sections of the front - and these reserves are declining at an alarming rate in consequence.
Vuhledar
In the Yuzhnodonetsk direction, Russian troops continue to assault Novomikhailovka from two directions, systematically striking enemy positions in the village.
Avdeevka
Reports on the 23rd March claiming that the Tonenkoye-Orlovka-Semyonovka-Berdychi line had collapsed proved to be premature. By the end of the week, fighting continued in Berdychi and the Russians were attacking Semyonovka from the south, according to the Two Majors
Chasov Yar
On the 24th March, the Russians broke through the Ukrainian defences east of Chasov Yar. The Ukrainians are counter-attacking towards Ivananovskoye (Krasnoye). There are battles at Bogdanovka where the Ukrainians have exhausted all defensive options, and at Kleshcheyevka, according to the Two Majors.
On the 26th, a NATO command centre was destroyed and some high ranking NATO officers killed, including, so it is claimed, Polish Brigadier General Adam Marczak.
Siversk
After a long period of inactivity, the Russians have made significant advances towards the Razdolovka-Veseloye border while the Ukrainians have retreated towards the Sukhaya Plotva river.
Zaporizhye - Rabotino - Verbovoye
Battles continue in Rabotino and the Ukrainians are preparing a new defence line at Orekhov.
According to sitreports:
On the Donetsk Front, Russian forces continue to hold the initiative. In Novomikhaylovka, the RF Armed Forces were able to recapture a number of positions from the AFU and advance into the town. Fighting continues in Georgiyevka, Pervomayskoye and near Nevelskoye.
Ivanivske
On the 23rd March, the Russian liberated Ivanivske and the tactical situation along the front was improved.
Kherson-Krynki
The Ukrainians still have a presence in Krynki which they continue to reinforce but it seems that no useful purpose is being served by this. It has always been an ‘offensive’ on the road to nowhere.
The Economic War
Western Firms Leaving Russia Lose Billions
Reuters is reporting that Western firms which have left Russia have lost a total of $107 billions. Some of this is due to having to sell their business at half the going rate.
World Politics
Serbia
Serbians commemorated the 25th anniversary of the commencement of NATO bombings on 24th March. The bombing lasted for 76 terrifying days. From now on the 24th March will be remembered by Russians and Serbians alike. A minutes silence was observed at the start of the demonstration to commemorate the Crocus terror attacks. 25 years ago the Serbians suffered 2500 deaths including 87 children. Demonstrators shouted ‘NATO fascists’.
Gaza Ceasefire for Ramadan - UN Security Council
When I first saw this headline my optimism interpreted it as a permanent ceasefire but it’s just for Ramadam - but at least that’s a start. Anyway, Netanyahu was a little annoyed. But a UNSC resolution is binding - unless you are Israel. It will be ignored with arrogant contempt.
Protests
Brussels
Farmers demonstrated in Brussels this week throwing manure and hay at EU and EC buildings and burning tyres. Police attacked with water cannon and tear gas while the demonstrators responded by spraying liquid manure at the police.
Farmers in London
Farmers were protesting in London this week against cheap agrarian imports (some of which could be from Ukraine). Tractors were involved in a very slow, and probably dignified drive through the centre of London. The farmers also expressed concerns about the farming industry in general and the difficulties farmers face in keeping their farms going. The Deep State wants control of the food supply so if farmers go out of business all the better. Anyway, it sounded very much like a polite protest in contrast to some of those on the continent.
The emerging Multi-Polar World Order
Margarita Simonyan, editor in chief of RT, was interviewed by a BBC reporter recently. Her comments speak volumes for the emergence of a very different attitude among non-Westerners:
Why do you always think that the way you live is better than the way we live? Even the way you ask questions: ‘Why don’t you, guys, do the way we do it?’ Because we’re not you! And to be honest, we don't really like you much.
That’s it for another week. Many thanks for your views, subscriptions, likes, shares and comments. Unfortunately, events have conspired to place additional demands on my time so I won’t be able to add to the Agnosticism series just yet. Apologies for that. I will still get the Update to you come hell or high water. Best Rob
Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.
Apparently the Polish general died of natural causes.
Is heart must have given out when he saw the missile heading his way.
Don't really know what the Polish politicians are up to. Now Tusk is stirring. You would have thought given their history the Poles would be wary of the Russians. Mind you Tusk is actually a Kashubian like the guy who raised Warsaw in 1944 Bach- Zewelski.
The Russians have time to finish the job. They know if they move too swift the Ukrainians still have the resources to offer a back handed blow like the Germans did during third battle of Kharkov 1943. I think the second world war experience plays a great part in the operational planning.
Another fine update. Thanks Rob.!
Read the posts every week and it is great to get bloggers opinions and honest interpretation of events off internet-plus the truth. Unlike the endless MSM angle,
The escalations are ratcheting up recently and there doesn't seem to be a sane mind or voice of reason in the entire Western leadership to reign it in (MIC etc don't really want to of course)-it is almost vacuum like.
Once again thanks for the update and I wonder what the increased level of conflict will be next week?