Ukraine Weekly Update

18th August 2023

Last week was pregnant with the possibility of a Russian breakthrough at Kupyansk and a new conflagration in West Africa. The former remains imminent while the latter, hopefully, will never happen. We will see. Everything on the battlefronts continues in the same way it did last week but the pressure on the Ukrainian army is increasing daily as its forces become stretched. In the US, it appears that someone thought Donald J’s cross didn’t have enough nails in it so the Democrats have hammered another one in with a record fourth indictment. I would estimate that if found guilty on all charges Trump would serve about five hundred years in jail.¹ There are signs that the German political establishment is getting very nervous that its days could be numbered - so nervous that some have called for the banning of the growing populist AfD party². When German politicians ban free speech, take aways liberties, propagandize the people to death, promote wars and then consider banning political parties, have they not stepped back in time? Have they forgotten what happened there in the 1930s?

Anyway, I would like to thank people for their views, subscriptions, their kind comments and their ‘likes’. A couple of months ago this Update was viewed by three family members and two friends, now many hundreds of people are reading it, which is great. Thank you all.

Putin Propagandized

Propaganda is very important to a State in times of war in order to dehumanise the enemy and persuade the people that he must be fought mercilessly, and defeated. In the First World War the Germans were accused of sticking babies on their bayonets in Belgium and in the First Gulf War the Iraqis were accused of taking babies out of incubators in Kuwait. Some people believed this nonsense. But there are occasions when propaganda can be self-defeating and the latest claims of the transgender Ukrainian spokesperson falls under this category. Putin, she claims: ‘is a vampire who bathes in the blood of children and enjoys it’. Note how this involves children as with the other examples I have mentioned. It also plays on age old fears using the familiar archetype of the vampire. Now this could work with children who still believe in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy but not for adults who may not trust anything that comes out of her mouth again. Does the Great Z really think that people are so childish as to believe a fairy story delivered in a condescending manner by what may appear to them as a man dressed up as a woman?? Of course this could be a spoof that no one has told me about!

But while we’re on the subject of young human beings, it appears that the Kiev regime has questions to answer about the abduction of children, according to South Front. South Front is being censored so has changed its domain - but, as with other links, I can’t guarantee that you will be able to access it.

Zelensky’s War on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church

Members of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) have barricaded themselves into one of the buildings of Kiev’s Pechersk Lavra monastery - according to Ukraine Watch. These people have no food and the police have prevented their supporters from giving them provisions. It appears that the police are determined to starve them out. This is the latest of many incidents associated with the Zelensky regime’s crackdown on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church which has close connections with Russian Orthodoxy. In the past, this has involved:

‘‘1. Hammering out a draft law to ban the UOC

2. Ramping up pressure on the UOC by the Ukrainian special services

3. Depriving the UOC of the right to use the churches of the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra, which is Ukraine’s “most ancient and largest monastery”

4. Imposing “sanctions” on UOC bishops, drafting discriminatory laws and forceful seizure of churches and monasteries etc. etc..’’

Sorry, the link for this has mysteriously vanished.

A Ukrainian priest was refused permission to talk to the UN Security Council about an incident in which he and his colleagues were driven into the icy waters of a lake and told to denounce the UOC. He survived but three of his colleagues drowned.

The Western media is largely silent on these very illiberal measures as it has been with regard to the Neo-Nazis and the Bandera movement which are also very prominent inside the country. Ukraine is an authoritarian state which does not allow opposition political parties, a free press or elections yet the legacy media gives us a very different impression. But most of you will know this already.

Ukraine’s Terror Attacks (Also see Ukraine Drone/Missile Attacks below)

Donetsk

Ukraine continued its terror attacks on the citizens of Donetsk this week. On the 13th August, 180 shells were delivered in 56 attacks in which two men were killed and several people were injured by shrapnel. On the 14th August the Ukrainians attacked civilians with cluster munitions. On the 15th Rybar reported an artillery and ‘stormshadow’ attack on Yuryevka which killed two and injured eight others.

Bryansk

On the same day Ukrainian drones attacked the village of Zhiryatino in Bryansk region - but there was no damage nor casualties. Elsewhere in Bryansk, the village of Kurkovichi was attacked and some damage was caused to industrial premises but the only casualty was a pig at an agricultural enterprise. Also on the 15th August an attack by a Ukrainian DRG group was repelled by the brave actions of border guards . A school and residential buildings in Kurshanovichi were attacked with artillery on 16th August but there were no casualties.

Ukraine’s New Mobilisation

Just when you thought that Ukraine’s mobilisation policies could not get any nastier - they do.

Slavyangrad reported that:

According to a British Law expert, the proposed Polish-Ukrainian Alliance will, with just a few "tweeks" (i.e. a few hastily written new laws), allow an estimated 1 Million Ukrainian men of fighting age and health currently hiding in Poland to loose their "Refugee" status and be drafted into the Military.

These would be very reluctant soldiers indeed and some with money may chose to ‘emigrate’ to Germany, The Czech Republic, Slovakia or Lithuania. Some, with Russian sympathies, may try Belarus. If they know what’s really happening on the fronts, they will do everything they can to stay away and stay alive.

Z has also announced that he has sacked all 35 recruitment advisors, presumably because they weren’t doing a good job or maybe they were taking too many bribes. Alex Christoforou suggested that there were more than a hundred of these advisors who were indeed taking bribes in return for overlooking someone’s eligibility to serve in the army. Z is opening up criminal probes against these officials who will be replaced by combat veterans. He invited the crooked advisors to cleanse themselves of guilt by volunteering to serve on the front lines. I doubt whether any of them feel the need to be cleansed strongly enough to die for it.

The photograph above shows a priest blessing new Ukrainian recruits and it made me wonder how many of them will still be alive in a month. It made me think about the hardships and terrors they will endure. Russian war journalist, Marat Khairullin knows about these things and he writes about them. Here³ he talks about how a friend was broken by the three month battles for Kreminnaya and Svatovo. His poignant and poetic description is worth quoting:

But those three months broke my friend's heart. Returning after Kreminnaya, he still tried to wander through life, and by the summer he had completely fallen ...His brother-soldiers carefully picked him up as best they could and tried to help glue this proud and courageous heart together. But who knows if it's even possible. But none of us condemned him, everyone understood. Because you don't know who's next tomorrow? Whose heart has already worked out its expiration date.

In reporting on the war, it is easy to overlook the human suffering that is being endured as we write from our cosy armchairs: Marat, who bears the name of a martyr, reminds us.

Sergei Shoigu on Cluster Munitions

A couple of weeks ago I said that I doubted whether Putin would allow the use of cluster munitions. But then last week I heard some reports that the Russians are using them and I repeated these claims in my last update. However, Sergei Shoigu, in his speech at the Security Conference in Moscow (see below), said that Russia has so far refrained from using cluster munitions. Sputnik reports that if Russia decides to use cluster munitions it will do so selectively and with the care of civilians in mind. But Dima of the Military Summary Channel is reporting that the Russians are already using cluster munitions. The truth is elusive in times of war so maybe it’s best to keep an open mind.

Challengers Have Arrived

It looks as though British Challenger 2 tanks have arrived on the battlefield at Zaporizhe. I imagine they will be firing depleted uranium shells but I’m not sure.

Death of a Narrative

In my view, the Ukrainian offensive is over for all intents and purposes though the Ukrainians will continue to take offensive actions. If people would like some detailed and well considered analysis of the legacy media’s reluctant and qualified acceptance of the offensive’s defeat, have a look at this from Simplicius. Alongside the defeated offensive, the ‘Ukraine is winning’ narrative has - in effect - died. However, the ‘Ukraine is not losing’ narrative may yet have some life left in it.

The Sea War

Cargo Ship Stopped

Cargo ship, Sukru Okan (above), flying the flag of Palau, was forced to stop by a Russian patrol boat on its way to the Ukrainian port of Izmail. Initially the ship had tried to flee from the Russian patrol boat which may have aroused suspicion. The report didn’t say anything about the discovery of illegitimate cargo and it seems that the ship was allowed to continue its voyage.

Russian War Ships Attacked

On August 18th an unmanned Ukrainian sea drone attacked Russian war ships in the Black Sea. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence:

‘‘In the course of repulsing the attack, an unmanned enemy boat failed to achieve its goal and was destroyed by fire from the onboard armament of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet — the Pytlivyy guard ship and the Vasily Bykov patrol ship."

The attack took place 127 nautical miles south west of Sevastopol.

The Air War

F16s

Last week I reported that Zelensky was calling for F16s once again. Well unfortunately, according to the Washington Post, training of Ukrainian pilots in the US faces delays and uncertainty. In fact, the first pilots are not expected to complete their training until the summer of 2024. Even though the first eight Ukrainian pilots chosen for the program are fluent in English, they will need to undergo additional language training in England to familiarise themselves with technical terminology associated with the aircraft. It looks as though other countries that promised to conduct training (such as Denmark and Holland) are also anticipating delays. Commentators such as Colonel Doug MacGregor and Brian Berletic have pointed to the lengthy training program necessary to enable pilots to function effectively in an aircraft they are not familiar with. Next summer appears to be a realistic timetable therefore. But why has the Kiev regime led us to believe that pilots could be ready to enter the conflict in September? Was this simply the sort of wishful thinking that the great Z has been prone to recently? Or is there some other reason for the collapse of optimism in this regard? Did the West originally intend to provide NATO pilots? Was it put off by Lavrov’s warning that the nuclear capable F16s should not be used because Russia cannot be certain that they are not carrying nuclear weapons? I wonder.

Ukrainian Drone/Missile Attacks

On August 12th Ukraine made another attempt at the Crimean bridge with an adapted S-200 missile which was intercepted before it could cause any damage. On the same day Moscow was again attacked by drones which were either shot down or electronically disabled. The same fate befell 20 Ukrainian drones directed at the Crimean peninsular. Early on the morning of the 13th, a single drone was brought down before it could do damage in Belgorod region. But on the same day a drone damaged an apartment building. No casualties were reported but around 16 vehicles were damaged. Unsuccessful attacks by small numbers of drones continued throughout the week in Kursk, Belgorad and Kaluga. Another Moscow bound drone was shot down on the morning of the 18th August. The falling debris caused some damage but no casualties or fires.

Russian Drone/Missile Strikes

Russian missiles successfully attacked an airfield at Ivano-Frankovsk on the 11th August and a tented camp of foreign mercenaries plus a Starlink communication terminal in Nikolaev on the 12th. Overnight on the 14th August Geranium drones and cruise missiles attacked Odesa and Zaporizhe causing damage to harbour oil depots in the former. The Russian MoD report for 14th August mentioned the successful destruction of sites of storage and manufacture of unmanned boats used for terrorist attacks. Perhaps these were located in Odesa.

Another big missile/drone attack was launched on the 15th August which targeted Lviv, Lutsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaparizhe, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Starokostatinov, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Vennitsa and Smela. Warehouses and industrial complexes were destroyed and the airfield at Starokostatinov was damaged. Command and control centres were also attacked. The Ukrainian authorities dutifully reported that their ‘sky shield’ had been effective in thwarting all the attacks, which must have appeared a little incongruous to those witnessing the fires and the explosions. Ukrainian sources are reporting that up to ten Tu95MS Russian strategic bombers were in the air on the 15th August. Tu60s bombers were also airborne on this day. Those reporting on this are saying that it is one of the biggest airborne attacks we have seen for a while. A Warehouse containing ammunition was attacked by Geranium drones in Kharkov on the morning of the 16th August and on the same day the Danube port of Reni (Odesa) was also attacked.

Gilbert Doctorow, reporting from his sources, suggests that Russia has been systematically destroying air ports in Ukraine in order to prevent SU34s and SU27s from launching Stormshadow and other long range missiles - which I suspected. But he has also received reports that the Russians have used Kinzhal-type hypersonic missiles to destroy railway tunnels under the Carpathian mountains in order to prevent military supplies getting through. (You can read about it here. Scroll down a long way to the heading: Russia’s Asymmetric Response). This is the main route for military hardware coming from the West via Poland and Romania - so will cause supply problems for Ukraine (if it is true). The Russian MoD has made no mention of destroying these rail tunnels and I have no confirmation from anywhere else. On the 17th August a Russian missile strike destroyed a trainload of ammunition in Dnepropetrovsk.

The Ground War

Weekly Ukrainian KIA According to MoD Reports:

12th August 475 KIA; 13th Aug 545 KIA; 14th Aug 625 KIA 15th Aug 845; 16th Aug 735; 17th Aug 890; 18th Aug 810. This is an average of around 700 a day which is similar to last week, I think.

Richard Steven Hack provides a good analysis/breakdown of the true losses incurred on August 16th on his Substack.

Last Reserves?

According to a Ukrainian source:

A tactical group “Maroon” – the last well-trained and well-equipped reserve of the AFU, was redeployed to the battle zone as the last chance to gain any real successes on the battlefield. These troops are equipped with British Challenger-2 MBTs, Stryker ICVs, German Marder IFVs, etc. The most part of those units were trained for months in the military camps of NATO countries.

‘Maroon’ was originally designated as a ‘breakthrough’ group meant to have reached the Sea of Azov after other Ukrainian troops paved the way for its advance. But these troops never even reached the first line of Russia’s defences so Maroon’s mission became redundant. This is not the first report I’ve seen claiming that Ukraine has committed its last reserves. If this is true, Ukraine will have no choice but to go on the defensive before very long. In the meantime, the Maroon group, according to the Military Chronicle, has been deployed to the Zaporizhe area. The Military Chronicle claims that the group is 20,000 strong. However, others have reported that the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade, which would be up to 5,000 strong, has been deployed to Zaporizhzhe (i.e. to Verbovoye near Orekhov - see below) with Challengers and Marders - which sounds as if it is part of the Maroon group. So it is possible that the 82nd is one brigade of about four that were part of the original Maroon group and that the other three have yet to be deployed. But is also possible that Military Chronicle has incorrect figures for the size of the group. Simplicius writes another excellent in depth piece about the 82nd in which he appears to assume that this is the last well-trained and well-equipped brigade. If I get some clarity on this issue I will report on it next week. I should say that some commentators, including Dima, do not agree that Ukraine has committed its last reserves. Time will tell.

The Fronts

Kupyansk

Pravda is reporting that retired LPR Colonel Andrey Marochko believes that Kupyansk will fall relatively quickly as compared to Bakhmut because the Ukrainians no longer have reserves. The city is situated at low elevation surrounded by hills - similar to Bakhmut/Artemovsk. But the Ukrainians, according to this colonel, will not be able to prolong the battle for the city by sending in reserves as they did at Bakhmut. Around 20,000 Ukrainian troops have been deployed in this area but many more may be needed once the Russians attack in strength.

If you would like some in depth and expert military analysis of the overall strategic and tactical situation at Kupyansk and elsewhere on the front Marat Khairullin provides it here. You will need to use Google Translate.

By midweek on the 15th August, according to military expert Boris Rozhin: ‘our troops continued to push northeast of the city in the Sinkovka area and also continued to push in the direction of Oskol in the Svatovsky direction. The enemy stepped up counterattacks to tie up our offensive actions’. On 16th August Russian troops reached the heavily reinforced Ukrainian main line of defence at Kupyansk. On the 17th August, Marat Khairullin reported⁴ that the Russians have reached the Oskil river at Masyutovka and could form a new bridgehead that would allow them to encircle Kupyansk from the Kharkov oblast. Map (Yes - I know I need to get a better map). Marat claims that the Ukrainians have reinforced this area so that ten Ukrainian brigades are now fighting here. He is very critical of Ukraine’s strategy of holding on to captured villages even when this involves taking heavy casualties. The Russians employ maneuver warfare that allows them to abandon insecure positions in order to establish more defensible ones - even if technically this amounts to a retreat.

On the 18th August, Russia made considerable advances in this direction according to this brief but well made Sitrep by Project Great.

Donetsk

Heavy clashes are taking place on the outskirts of Kleshcheevka and in the Maryinsky sector - according to Rybar.

Zaporizhzhe (Orekhov)

The Ukrainians launched another offensive east of Rabotino on the evening of 12th August. Four of the five tanks employed were destroyed but the Ukrainians attacked again with another five tanks. They continued to attack east of Rabotino on the 14th through to the 18th August but were repelled with heavy losses. The fighting here appears to be more intense than anywhere. On the 18th August, the Ukrainian forces entered the south of Rabotino but are being pulverised by Russian artillery. Some reports suggest that the 82nd is being deployed here but there is no sign of Challenger 2 tanks as yet. I bet there will be a juicy reward for whoever manages to destroy or capture the first Challenger.

Even if the Ukrainians manage to capture Rabotino to protect their right flank during an advance, they haven’t got the strength to get past the first line of the Russian defences so it all seems a pointless loss of life in my view.

Zaporizhzhe (Verbovoye)

Sputnik reports that on August 17th the elite 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade began fighting around Verbovoye (21km south east of Orekhov). However, its attacks have been repelled.

Zaporizhzhe (Urozhaynoye)

The Ukrainians continue to attack this village losing many men in doing so. Here’s a short account of the battle from the evening of the 12th August posted in Slavyangrad. According to this commentator: ‘It's just a massacre in Urozhayne — AFU throw waves of infantry to slaughter, filling up with meat’. But the Ukrainians continued attacks on the 13th August. Dima of the Military Summary Channel is reporting that the Ukrainians are using chemical weapons in this direction. Military correspondent Dmitriy Steshin made the same claim on his Russian Tarantas telegram channel. Some reports claim that the Russians abandoned the village on the 14th August and started pounding the Ukrainians as they moved forward slowly through mines and booby traps. Boris Rozhin has reported that some of the village is still in Russian hands. Others say that the village was in the Grey Zone on August 15th.

Zaporizhzhe (Pyatikhatki)

All attempts by the Ukrainians to approach the settlement have been repelled. The situation is currently stable and controlled.

Artemovsk (Bakhmut)

It seems that the Russians are holding firm on both flanks of the city in spite of Ukrainian pressure.

Kherson

Fighting continues around the Antonovsky Bridge and many attempts have been made by Diversion Reconnaissance Groups (DRGs) to cross the Dnieper in boats but have failed, according to the Military Summary Channel.

The Economic War

Russia

The Russian economy has started growing for the first time since the start of the SMO and the imposition of batch after batch of sanctions. However, the Ruble dropped in value to 111 per dollar this week - which is the lowest it’s been for some time. Falling revenues from oil and gas sales have impacted on Russia’s budget deficit and interest rates have been raised by 12% in a bid to stem the Rouble’s decline. The Ruble did respond and eventually rose to 91 per dollar on the 17th August according to RT.

Holland

The Dutch economy has officially entered recession.

World Politics

West Africa (Map)

ECOWAS’s ‘parliament’ was initially divided on taking action against the rebels in Niger according to this report in Tass. Later it adopted a policy of being willing to negotiate with Niger while preparing to invade it. Niger can field an army of around 25,000 but it’s supporters will also contribute. Nigeria has a standing army of 230,000 men but they may face opposition from Nigerian tribesmen who actually live in Niger. I think there will be lots of jaw, jaw before any conflict actually begins. It seems that Niger’s new PM and the leader of the rebels who appointed him are ready for talks with ECOWAS according to this report. But the rebels have also announced that they have evidence to prosecute the former President, Bazoum, for treason. French troops in Niger have stayed in their barracks according to Sputnik. On August 14th anti-war protesters took to the streets in the city of Kano in Northern Nigeria, holding aloft Niger and Nigerian flags and shouting anti-Western slogans.

In neighbouring Mali, UN peacekeepers have been attacked and may be pulling out of the country. The forces were there for ‘security reasons’ but I don’t know any more than that. I do know that Mali has suspended issuing visas to French Nationals. The President of Mali contacted Putin by telephone and, according to a Kremlin Statement, Putin emphasized ‘‘the importance of settling the situation in the Republic of Niger solely through peaceful political and diplomatic means." You can read more about it in Zero Hedge.

The more I read about the situation in West Africa, the more complex and intriguing it appears. ECOWAS is an instrument of Nigeria, so I am told, and the Nigerian President appears to be a US puppet, according to African journalist David Hundeyin, interviewed here by George Galloway (24 mins). There is much evidence that outside influence from the US and France is driving West Africa towards catastrophe. If it develops in this direction, it would dwarf anything happening in Ukraine.

On a positive note, the African Union has announced that it does not support a military solution to the situation in Niger.

Territory For NATO Membership?

Jens Stoltenberg’s Chief of Staff has suggested that Ukraine should concede territory to Russia in exchange for NATO membership as reported by Alex Christoforou (30 mins). Some European states are supportive of this proposal, apparently. Yet these people must know that the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO was one of the main reasons for Russia’s SMO. They are either very dense or pretending to be so. Furthermore, Russia is winning hands down so has no real need to negotiate at all. Secretary of Ukrainian Security Oleksiy Danilov, who was apparently annoyed with NATO’s proposal, suggested that Russia should be destroyed like a modern day Carthage. But wanting it won’t make it possible. Rome had the power to destroy Carthage but the West does not have the power to destroy Russia. It is possible, however, that NATO is offering Ukraine a carrot to get it involved in negotiations only to withdraw it with some excuse once it has extracted itself from the mire. But the Ukrainians probably suspect this since they know that the West has a very poor record of keeping to agreements. This spat between allies shows that the West does not dominate Ukraine completely and is an expression of the factional battles that are going on in the US, the EU and NATO. Contrary to the propagandist pretense, there is no unity in any of these institutions. Later, NATO made it clear that they do not support the view of this errant official, who apparently spoke without permission.

The Emerging Multi-Polar World Order

Army-2023 - Defense Military Forum

The above photo is taken from Putin’s video speech to the Army 2023 event held in Moscow on the 14th-20th August. Eighty foreign organisations made presentations of a military nature at the event to advertise their products. Putin’s speech was meant as an introduction to Army 2023 and to the 21st Conference on International Security which began on August 15th.

In his speech, Putin said: "Russia is open to deepening equal, technological partnership and military-technical cooperation with other countries, with all those who defend their national interests, their independent path of development. And it[ Russia] considers it fundamentally important to build together an equal indivisible security system that would reliably protect each state," This is the phrase that persuaded me to include this story under the heading: The Emerging Multi-Polar World Order. Countries such as Russia and China are leading the way towards achieving this. Under the existing Uni-Polar World Order the US does not permit other countries to have an independent path of development. Here's a short report on Army 2023 from Sputnik. Many contracts were handed out at the Forum to provide weapons to the Russia military - as reported by the Russian MoD’s Telegram Channel.

21st Moscow Conference on International Security - 15th August

The fact that this was the 21st Conference shows how long Russia has been concerned with NATO’s eastward expansion. Many top officials gave speeches under the heading “Realities of global security in a multipolar world.” They included Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov of Russia, as well as Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu. Here's a report on the Conference from Sputnik.

Below is a photo of captured Western vehicles which were exhibited at Army 2023 (nice touch).

UN Security Council Meeting

The UN Security Council held a meeting to discuss arms supplies to Ukraine which, according to Russian Representative Dmitry Polyansky, is prolonging a conflict which the defeated Ukrainian offensive shows it cannot win.

Meanwhile - On the Moon

Luna 25 sent back this photo of the dark side of the moon.

That’s all for this week; it’s been an interesting seven days. BRICS is happening next week and the elastic band that is the Ukrainian army could break during the course of it. But probably not.

Best Rob

1. This article in Sputnik reckons Trump would serve 700 years.

2. See Michael Heaver.

3. You will need to use Google Translate.

4. You will need to use Google Translate.